14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Inflation picks up
CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned
View Report
14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation scales up
WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation
View Report
14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained
View Report
11-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Industrial production dips
IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect
View Report
11-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%
View Report
10-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005
View Report
09-Oct-24
BOB Economics | RBI MPC: Cautious yet dovish
The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%
View Report
09-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”
View Report
08-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier
View Report
07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country
View Report
07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Sectoral Credit-Aug’24
RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24
View Report
07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Inflation may surprise on the upside
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24
View Report
04-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran
View Report
03-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The global yields largely softened in Sep’24
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Status quo for now
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon begins to retreat
As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2024
Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate
View Report
01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut
View Report
30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | India’s CAD at comfortable level
India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24
View Report
30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Does Fed decision impact those of other central banks?
Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%
View Report
30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures
View Report
27-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Borrowing Calendar
Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore
View Report
27-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy
View Report
26-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25
View Report
25-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages
View Report
24-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%
View Report
23-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%
View Report
23-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Credit and Economic growth: India story
Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions
View Report
20-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance
View Report
19-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps
View Report
17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases to 4-month low
WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation
View Report
17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$
View Report
17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed
View Report
16-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)
View Report
16-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)
View Report
12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Industrial production stable
IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector
View Report
12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Inflation inches up marginally
CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24
View Report
12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month
View Report
11-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today
View Report
10-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)
View Report
10-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum
View Report
09-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month
View Report
06-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24
View Report
06-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market
View Report
05-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Inflation likely to subside
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure
View Report
05-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24
View Report
04-Sep-24
BOB Economics | The consumer goods industry in Q1-FY25
Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring
View Report
04-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector
View Report
03-Sep-24
BOB Economics Research | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024
View Report
03-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24
View Report
02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Currency update
INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$
View Report
02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Bonds wrap
Most of global yields eased in Aug’24
View Report
02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24
View Report
30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth
Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24
View Report
30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy
India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24
View Report
30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy
View Report
29-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision
View Report
28-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024
View Report
28-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24
View Report
27-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24
View Report
26-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’
View Report
23-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech
View Report
22-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data
View Report
21-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024
View Report
21-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech
View Report
20-Aug-24
BOB Economics | MF/BD - The new age shift?
Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention
View Report
20-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials
View Report
19-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets had a breather to some extent
View Report
18-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q1-FY25
India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced
View Report
16-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24
View Report
15-Aug-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: FYTD25
India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)
View Report
14-Aug-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases
WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation
View Report
14-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24
View Report
13-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024
View Report
13-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24
View Report
12-Aug-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eases, IIP growth cools
CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base
View Report
12-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting
View Report
09-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Food inflation – breaker for rate cut
Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth
View Report
09-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded
View Report
08-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Status quo with hawkish undertones
The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy
View Report
08-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable
View Report
07-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy
View Report
06-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession
View Report
05-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24
View Report
05-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed
View Report
03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | “Top”pling inflation
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum
View Report
03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | No change in rate or stance
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24
View Report
03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024
View Report
02-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark
View Report
01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$
View Report
01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields softened further in Jul’24
View Report
01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row
View Report
31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth
Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24
View Report
31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Government finances in Q1 FY25
Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year
View Report
31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme
View Report
30-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024
View Report
30-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed
View Report
29-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation
View Report
26-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases
View Report
25-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy
View Report
24-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024
View Report
24-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened
View Report
23-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25
In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.
View Report
23-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets still centred around political developments in the US
View Report
22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | The Equity Rush
Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons
View Report
22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Global Fiscal Analysis
Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators
View Report
22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2023-24
The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047
View Report
22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally
View Report
19-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21
View Report
18-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground
View Report
16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: Q1-FY25
India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports
View Report
16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024
View Report
16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24
View Report
15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$
View Report
15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates
WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation
View Report
15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1
View Report
12-Jul-24
BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation
The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047
View Report
12-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24
View Report
11-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Impact of commodities with high inflationary potential
India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years
View Report
11-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24
View Report
10-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts
View Report
09-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy
View Report
08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024
View Report
08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon and Budget developments to drive markets
This month remains crucial
View Report
08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24
View Report
05-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Stamp Duty: Do collections reflect health of real estate sector?
Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure
View Report
05-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24
View Report
04-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut
View Report
03-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24
View Report
03-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24
View Report
02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month
View Report
02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields continued their downward trajectory
View Report
02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low
View Report
01-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened
View Report
01-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Trends in remittances
India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well
View Report
28-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US
View Report
27-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Impact of Heatwave: India’s ongoing heatwave
India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country
View Report
27-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases
View Report
26-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals
View Report
25-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play
View Report
24-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high
View Report
21-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)
View Report
20-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%
View Report
19-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)
View Report
18-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold
View Report
18-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Currency update
INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$
View Report
14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | NRI deposits trend
The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits
View Report
14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation at a 15-month high
WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices
View Report
14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24
View Report
13-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis
View Report
13-Jun-24
BoB Economics - Food inflation: A key risk
CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky
View Report
12-Jun-24
First Light | Monthly Chartbook
Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation
View Report
12-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier
View Report
11-Jun-24
BoB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation
Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery
View Report
11-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut
View Report
10-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market
View Report
07-Jun-24
BOB Economics | RBI retains rates
MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
07-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)
View Report
06-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q4FY24
Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year
View Report
06-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24
View Report
05-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24
View Report
05-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21
View Report
04-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production
View Report
03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$
View Report
03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy
View Report
03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | RBI to hold rates
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo
View Report
03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24
View Report
31-May-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth soars in FY24
Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23
View Report
31-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe
View Report
30-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period
View Report
29-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic
View Report
28-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge
View Report
27-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24
View Report
24-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes
View Report
22-May-24
BOB Economics | RBI dividend at record high
RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24
View Report
22-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates
View Report
21-May-24
BOB Economics | How different sectors fared in terms of capital formation:
When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment
View Report
21-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation
View Report
17-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts
View Report
16-May-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%
View Report
16-May-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies
View Report
16-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)
View Report
15-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs
View Report
14-May-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates
WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24
View Report
14-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data
View Report
13-May-24
BOB Economics | Food inflation; still overpowering
CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)
View Report
13-May-24
BOB Economics | A likely surge in FPI Flow (Debt)
The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers
View Report
13-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut
View Report
10-May-24
BOB Economics | IIP growth eases in Mar’24
IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output
View Report
10-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024
View Report
09-May-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon holds the key
Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24
View Report
09-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels
View Report
08-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24
View Report
07-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year
View Report
06-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24
View Report
03-May-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24
View Report
03-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data showed persistent tightening
View Report
02-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations
View Report
30-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month
View Report
29-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth
View Report
26-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23
View Report
25-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy
View Report
24-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector
View Report
23-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning
View Report
22-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel
View Report
19-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets
View Report
18-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies
View Report
16-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade in FY24
India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | IMD-Forecast for South West Monsoon
IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation picks up pace
Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments
View Report
15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic resilience continues
Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates
View Report
12-Apr-24
BOB Economics | India’s General Election-2024
World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha
View Report
12-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for
the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark
View Report
10-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24
View Report
08-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24
View Report
05-Apr-24
BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold
In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
05-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals
View Report
04-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24
View Report
04-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture
View Report
03-Apr-24
BOB Economics | RBI to remain static
Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance
View Report
03-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously
View Report
02-Apr-24
BOB Economics | CC Dynamics-Consumption and Credit picture
An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly
View Report
02-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3
View Report
01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Year End - Equity market performance
In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500
View Report
01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months
View Report
01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting
View Report
01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24
View Report
28-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25
View Report
27-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)
View Report
26-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks
View Report
22-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe
View Report
21-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%
View Report
20-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Global central banks actions in retrospect
Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world
View Report
20-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts
View Report
19-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How has the equity market performed?
Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)
View Report
19-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%
View Report
18-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24
View Report
17-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24
View Report
15-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices
View Report
14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation at its lowest since Oct’23
WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24
View Report
14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Trends in ownership of government debt
In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities
View Report
14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts
View Report
12-Mar-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Food inflation a discomfort
CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%
View Report
12-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward
View Report
11-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth continues to impress
India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience
View Report
11-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24
View Report
07-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Feb’24
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis
View Report
07-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year
View Report
06-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24
View Report
05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Analysis of the liquidity deficit
Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024
View Report
05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How has State capex fared in FYTD24?
Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure
View Report
05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24
View Report
04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | GDP expectations for FY25
According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24
View Report
04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments
View Report
04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks
View Report
04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%
View Report
04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far
Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil
View Report
01-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23
View Report
29-Feb-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth to ascend to 7.6% in FY24
Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)
View Report
29-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier
View Report
28-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23
View Report
27-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23
View Report
26-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)
View Report
23-Feb-24
BOB Economics | GDP to grow by 6.4% in Q3FY24
Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions
View Report
23-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy
View Report
22-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q3FY24
India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters
View Report
22-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked
View Report
21-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today
View Report
20-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23
View Report
19-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%
View Report
16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Foreign Trade (April-January)
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year
View Report
16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | How Lifestyle Inflation rate has moved
In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important
View Report
16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed
View Report
15-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24
View Report
14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Status of infrastructure projects
An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts
View Report
14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation slows down
WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23
View Report
14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23
View Report
13-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates
View Report
12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation
CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%
View Report
12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Study on Personal Loans
The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends
View Report
12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates
View Report
09-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key
India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well
View Report
09-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k
View Report
08-Feb-24
BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold
MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
08-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome
View Report
07-Feb-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jan’24
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis
View Report
07-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed
View Report
06-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23
View Report
05-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2024
IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23
View Report
05-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes
View Report
03-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)
View Report
03-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023
View Report
02-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote
View Report
01-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25
In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions
View Report
01-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24
View Report
31-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25
View Report
30-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold
View Report
29-Jan-24
BOB Economics | What production and price data of consumer goods say?
A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy
View Report
29-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3
View Report
25-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity
View Report
24-Jan-24
BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation
With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation
View Report
24-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy
View Report
23-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations
View Report
19-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy
View Report
18-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy
View Report
17-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)
View Report
16-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand
View Report
15-Jan-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation creeping up
WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23
View Report
15-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)
View Report
12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Some degree of comfort on inflation
CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)
View Report
12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Global Commodity price movements in 2023
Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23
View Report
12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Trend in FPI flows
After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023
View Report
12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments
View Report
11-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high
View Report
10-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Household credit, a stimulus to growth?
Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar
View Report
10-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate
View Report
09-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key
India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture
View Report
09-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors
View Report
08-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are again re-thinking their positions
View Report
05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | FY24 growth estimated to surge to 7.3%
NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23
View Report
05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Dec’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis
View Report
05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up
View Report
04-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment
View Report
03-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI
View Report
02-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2023
US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions
View Report
02-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23
View Report
01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24
View Report
01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | SCB’s fortnightly performance
Deposits held with SCBs
View Report
01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Sectoral growth in Credit – November 2023
The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles
View Report
01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | How transmission has fared?
A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared
View Report
01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Highlights of RBI’s Financial Stability Report
RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report
View Report
29-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates
View Report
28-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts
View Report
27-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin
View Report
26-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week
View Report
22-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool
View Report
21-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions
View Report
20-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24
View Report
19-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy
View Report
18-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks
View Report
15-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year
View Report
14-Dec-23
BOB Economics | WPI out of deflation
WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23
View Report
14-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone
View Report
13-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates
View Report
12-Dec-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Sticky food driving inflation higher
CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%
View Report
12-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies
View Report
11-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)
View Report
08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth remains resilient
India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong
View Report
08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | RBI maintains status quo
MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Trends in general government subsidies
In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies
View Report
08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before
View Report
07-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Rabi Sowing: Update
A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24
View Report
07-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23
View Report
06-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected
View Report
05-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – November 2023
Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3
View Report
05-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23
View Report
04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23
View Report
04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook
Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low
View Report
04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year
View Report
01-Dec-23
BOB Economics | India on track to be the fastest growing economy
India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations
View Report
01-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts
View Report
30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal deficit at 45% of BE
Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year
View Report
30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Q2 GDP growth in 4th gear
India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24
View Report
30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)
View Report
29-Nov-23
BOB Economics | IPO boom: An analysis
India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space
View Report
29-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23
View Report
28-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)
View Report
24-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q2FY24
India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent
View Report
24-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone
View Report
23-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Has capacity utilization for India Inc. improved in H1?
Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc
View Report
23-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession
View Report
22-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective
View Report
21-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%
View Report
20-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking
View Report
17-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked
View Report
16-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US economy continued to show some softening
View Report
15-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How FPI flows have moved?
FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing
View Report
15-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets
View Report
13-Nov-23
BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation eased marginally; food remains sticky
CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)
View Report
13-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market
View Report
10-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth holding ground
On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity
View Report
10-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower
View Report
09-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How has state capex performed in H1FY24?
Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase
View Report
09-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist
View Report
08-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23
View Report
07-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note
View Report
06-Nov-23
BOB Economics | State of States as they go for Elections
India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024
View Report
06-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity
View Report
04-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Oct’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23
View Report
03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Trends in sector-wise credit deployment
Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)
View Report
03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – October 2023
Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront
View Report
03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth
View Report
02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility
View Report
02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady
View Report
02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates
View Report
01-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions
View Report
31-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program
View Report
30-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23
View Report
27-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22
View Report
26-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%
View Report
25-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Projection of Kharif output 2023-24
India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA
View Report
25-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23
View Report
23-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market