18-Jan-2022Research Reports

E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022

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SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21

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WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation

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In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations

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Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA

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CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%

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World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week

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India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021

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India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%

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Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets

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With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports

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WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21

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As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States

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CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)

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Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08

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According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production

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Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21

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India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn

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In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)

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Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021

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As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21

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With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed

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India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions

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As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports

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India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22

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Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21

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In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021

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Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum

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In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25

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Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high

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India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21

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August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway

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In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.

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RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21

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US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence

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India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables

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India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect

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According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)

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India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis

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India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability

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According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown

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US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)

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RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year

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MPC maintained status quo on rates

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Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law

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India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace

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Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports

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India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21

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Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower

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Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21

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Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)

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Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill

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IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier

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Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%

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Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week

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ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19

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Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021

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India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021

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WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)

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S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021

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India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21

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India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021

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India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20

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India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21

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Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports

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While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs

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RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22

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India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21

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India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit

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Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021

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Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn

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FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs

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Global economic activity remained buoyant

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As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21

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India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21

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FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis

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As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week

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US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021

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MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown

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Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils

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India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year

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India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon

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RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space

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CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation

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WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index

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Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021

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Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)

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According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21

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As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.

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World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).

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Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.

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US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.

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India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).

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MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.

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India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.

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India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.

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India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.

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India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.

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US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).

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FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.

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Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.

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RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

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In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.

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RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.

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RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.

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With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.

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WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.

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India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.

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As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.

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India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.

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As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.

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India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.

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Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.

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India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.

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India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.

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RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.

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Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.

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As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).

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A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.

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As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.

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With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.

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RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.

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Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.

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Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.

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MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.

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As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.

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With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.

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Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.

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WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.

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India’s industrial output fell by 3.6% in Feb’21 from 0.9% in Jan’21 led by dip in mining and manufacturing.

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Rising global Covid-19 infections pose a risk to global recovery.

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As per news reports, combined capex of 37 large CPSEs was at Rs 4.6tn in FY21, which is 92% of the budgeted target and also 4.3% higher than FY20.

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Rising Covid-19 infections in India pose a risk to our growth estimate of 11.5% in FY22.

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IMF in its recent statement said that India's debt to GDP ratio shot upto 90% in CY20 against 74% in CY19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 37.3bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 2 Apr 2021.

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MPC kept repo rate on hold but removed time specific stance guidance in favour of one contingent on reviving growth.

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IMF has upgraded India’s growth forecast to 12.5% in FY22 from 11.5% projected earlier.

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India’s manufacturing PMI fell to a 7-month low of 55.4 in Mar’21 from 57.5 in Feb’21.

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Global yields rose with manufacturing PMIs showing signs of recovery.

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As per CMIE data, new project announcements rose to Rs 1.2tn in Q4FY21 from Rs 1.1tn in Q3FY21.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 14.1bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 led by sharp rebound in gold (+584%) and non-oil-non-gold (+46%) imports.

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India’s eight core output contracted to a 6-month low of 4.6% in Feb’21 from an increase of 0.9% in Jan’21.

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Centre’s borrowing in H1FY22 is pegged at Rs 7.2tn compared with Rs 7.4tn in H1FY21.

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India’s current account went back into deficit of US$ 1.7bn (-0.2% of GDP) from surplus of US$ 15.1bn (2.4% of GDP) in Q2.

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Centre has confirmed that Rs 300bn have been transferred to states on 27 Mar 2021 as GST compensation, bringing the total amount transferred to Rs 700bn for FY21 so far.

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Yield differential between US and other economies widened led by US vaccination drive and stimulus.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) inched down to 6.48% as on 29 Mar 2021 against 6.53% in the previous week.

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As per news reports, NHAI is planning to raise Rs 1tn through monetisation of national highways in the next 5-years.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 11.6bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 19 Mar 2021.

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According to news reports, central government has collected ~Rs 304bn as dividend receipts from CPSEs in FYTD21 (till 22 Mar 2021), slightly lower than the revised target of Rs 347bn.

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India’s highway construction is gaining pace as it touched a record high of 34km/day construction in FY21 (till 22 Mar 2021).

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US 10Y yield rose by 10bps to a 14-month high even as Fed Chair tried to calm the markets with forward guidance of accommodative policy.

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EPFO’s data indicates that 0.82mn new subscribers were added in Jan’21, broadly steady compared with 0.85mn added in Dec’20.

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UNCTAD has revised India’s growth forecast for CY21 upwards to 5% from 3.9% earlier.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) in India rose slightly to 6.53% as on 17 Mar 2021 from 6.52% in the previous week.

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India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 17.3% (YoY) between 1-14 Mar 2021 (US$ 14.2bn), after rising by 0.7% in Feb’21.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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WPI accelerated to a 27-month high of 4.1% in Feb’21 led by higher food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Global equities continued to move higher on the back of US stimulus, global vaccination drive and economic recovery.

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India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 580.3bn in the week ended 5 Mar 2021.

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India’s industrial output fell by 1.6% in Jan’21 (+1.6% in Dec’20) led by drop in capital goods and consumer non-durables.

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India’s fuel consumption fell for the 2nd straight month in Feb’21 to its lowest since Sep’20 by 4.6% (MoM basis) to 17.2mn tonnes.

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OECD has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 higher to 12.6% from 7.9% estimated earlier and a contraction of 7.4% in FY21.

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As per news reports, government has received over 0.13mn declarations under Vivad se Vishwas scheme involving a disputed tax of Rs 983bn.

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A government driven capex cycle is holding ground with general government capex spending up by 123.6% in Jan’21 (50.4% in Dec’20).

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US economy is showing a strong rebound with payrolls and manufacturing activity surprising positively thus driving US 10Y higher.

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 51.5bn between Apr-Dec’20, compared with US$ 36.8bn in the same period last year.

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As per news reports, government is focussing on farmers producer organisations (FPOs) to support small and marginal farmers.

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India’s services PMI jumped sharply in Feb’21 to 55.3 from 52.8 in Jan’21.

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Indian government recently concluded auction of telecom spectrum garnering Rs 778bn in revenue.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.9bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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Total GST collections remained above Rs 1tn mark for the 5th consecutive month in Jan’21, although it eased marginally from Rs 1.2tn (8.1%) in Dec’20 to Rs 1.1tn (7.4%) in Jan’21.

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Global reflation trade drove US 10Y to a 1-year high.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand moderated to 5.8% in Jan’21 against 5.9% in Dec’20.

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After two consecutive quarters of decline, GDP and GVA growth returned to the positive territory at 0.4% and 1% respectively in Q3FY21.

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In India, cooking gas LPG prices rose for the third time in Feb’21.

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As per second advance estimates, India’s foodgrain output is expected to rise by 2.5% to 303mn tonne in CY21 (crop year) and will even surpass its target level (301mn tonne).

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As per news reports, government is planning to finalise an asset monetisation pipeline for the next 3 years.

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The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated the MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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Global yields rose sharply led by US and UK, as reflation bets gained momentum amidst an improvement in economic activity.

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India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 250mn in the week ended 12 Feb 2021 to US$ 583.7bn.

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In an effort to protect the interest of investors and depositors, RBI has issued several directions for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs).

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As per news reports, the additional cess of Rs 13-16/lt imposed on auto fuels from Mar’20 onwards is likely to earn the exchequer around Rs 1.9tn (over FY20) compared with Rs 1.2tn estimated in FY21RE.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20.

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WPI accelerated to 2% in Jan’21 from 1.2% in Dec’20 led by manufactured inflation at 5.1% (4.2% in Dec’20).

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Global yields (except India) moved higher with steady decline in Covid-19 cases and economic upturn.

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As per news reports, government may soon announce more schemes focussing on agriculture and its infrastructure development.

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India’s industrial output improved to 1% in Dec’20 (-2.1% in Nov’20) led by acceleration in manufacturing and electricity output.

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Recovery in auto industry hit a snag, as retail sales contracted by 10% in Jan'21 from an increase of 11% in Dec'20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 16.2bn and stood at Rs 28.2tn for the week ending 05 Feb 2021.

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As per IEA report, India will overtake EU as the world’s third largest energy consumer by CY30.

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India’s Finance ministry has confirmed that dues for GST compensation to states for Apr-Nov’20 period stands at Rs 2.06tn.

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India’s FM presented a historic Budget with a vision to spend and monetise assets to lead India’s economic recovery.

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Global equity markets rose on the back of strong corporate results and manufacturing activity.

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As per news reports, Centre is likely to incentivise states to pursue disinvestment in state government PSUs.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and into next financial year.

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Domestic petrol and diesel prices continued to increase in Feb’21.

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India’s services activity slightly moderated as PMI print was tad lower at 52.3 in Jan’21 versus 52.8 in Dec’20.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil exports.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil-exports.

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The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% in FY20.

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The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% of GDP in FY20.

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Global equity markets fell on the back of concerns over vaccine rollout.

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India’s total GST collections rose to Rs 1.20tn for the month of Dec’20 versus Rs 1.15tn in Nov’20.

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CSO has revised FY20 growth to 4% from 4.2%.

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Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 11% in FY22 after contracting by 7.7% in FY21, on the back of a low base, PLI scheme, infra investments and roll-out of vaccine drive.

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According to news reports, in the budget for FY22, capex spending target for 36 major CPSEs may get increased by 50-60% to Rs 7.5-8tn from Rs 4.95tn in FY21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 7.7bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 22 Jan 2021.

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IMF has projected India’s growth to rebound to 11.5% in FY22 from a decline of 8% in FY21, to be the fastest growing country in the world.

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Hopes of US$ 1.9tn fiscal stimulus in the US under the new President lifted global equities and currencies higher.

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India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 584.2bn in the week ended 15 Jan 2021 from a record high of US$ 586.1bn.

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RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in the spot market in Nov’20 compared with net purchase of US$ 15.6bn in Oct’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 125bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 15 Jan 2021.

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A counter cyclical fiscal response to contraction in GDP growth implies India’s fiscal deficit will rise to 7.2% of GDP in FY21.

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News reports suggest that the Centre may announce complete shift to DBT for providing fertiliser subsidy to farmers in FY22 Budget.

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As per news reports, government is considering hiking custom duties by 5%-10% on about 50 items such as smartphones, electronic components, refrigerators and other electronic appliances.

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Global yields fell, equity markets were lower and DXY index rose as world economy battles another wave of Covid-19.

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India’s exports have risen by 10.9% (YoY) in the first two weeks of Jan’21, compared with 0.1% increase in Dec’20.

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India's passenger vehicles sales noticed a sharp uptick as it registered a growth of 13.6% in Dec'20 versus 4.6% in Nov'20.

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WPI eased to a 4-month low of 1.2% in Dec’20 from 1.5% in Nov’20 led by moderation in food inflation to 0.9% in Dec’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 27bn and stood at Rs 27.9tn for the week ending 8 Jan 2021.

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Recovery in India’s industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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India’s recovery in industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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India’s economic recovery continues to gain momentum.

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RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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US 10Y yield inched up by 20bps in the week after Democratic party regained control of the Senate.

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RBI has again announced variable rate reverse repo auction on 15 Jan 2021 worth Rs 2tn to restore normal liquidity operation.

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India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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India’s services PMI eased to 52.3 in Dec’20 (53.7 in Nov’20) with growth in new business and output softening.

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World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 9.6% in FY21 before recovering to 5.4% in FY22 and 5.2% in FY23.

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India’s manufacturing activity continued to remain robust as visible in the PMI reading. It rose to 56.4 in Dec’20 compared with 56.3 in Nov’20.

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Global equity indices ended CY20 on a high driven by news of Covid-19 vaccine, US stimulus deal and Brexit trade deal. DXY index fell to a 32-month low on concern over rising twin deficits.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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India’s eight core index contracted by 2.6% in Nov’20 (3-month low) from 0.9% in Oct’20.

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India’s current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn in Q2FY21 (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1 (3.8% of GDP).

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With revival in economic activity in Q2FY21, current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1.

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RBI’s report on Trend and Progress of Banking stated that GNPA ratio of SCBs has declined to 7.5% as of Sep’20 from 8.2% as of Mar’20.

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RBI’s recent working paper has pointed out that current 4% inflation target is appropriate in the medium-term.

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The year ended with a Brexit deal and US President signing a US$ 900bn stimulus.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 2.6bn to a record high of US$ 581.1bn in the week ended 18 Dec 2020.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 329bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 18 Dec 2020.

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India's crude oil production slipped to 2.49mn tonne in Nov'20 (4.9% drop) compared with 2.61mn tonne in Nov'19.

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EPFO’s payroll data for Oct’20 showed that net additions eased to 0.72mn from 1.11mn in Sep’20.

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2020 was one of the worst years for global economy but one of the best years for NASDAQ (5th highest since inception).

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Global yields and equities rose on the back of US stimulus deal, launch of vaccine and US FOMC’s upward revision to growth and inflation.

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Centre has allowed 5 states to borrow additional Rs 167bn from the market as they have implemented the Ease of Doing Business reforms.

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MPC members stated that growth has surprised positively.

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Centre’s net direct tax collections improved in Q3FY21 as it fell by only 13% till 16 Dec 2020 versus 25% drop seen between Apr-Sep’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 116bn and stood at Rs 27.8tn for the week ending 11 Dec 2020.

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Final print for India’s trade data shows that exports fell by 8.7% in Nov’20 compared with 9.1% drop estimated in preliminary estimates and 5.1% decline in Oct’20.

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India’s CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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WPI inched up to a 9-month high of 1.6% in Nov’20 from 1.5% in Oct’20 led by manufactured inflation which increased to 3% in Nov’20 (2.1% in Oct’20).

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10Y yield in UK and US declined due to uncertainty over Brexit and US stimulus.

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As per AMFI data, net inflow under mutual funds moderated to Rs 272bn in Nov’20 from Rs 986bn in Oct’20.

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India’s industrial output surprised positively in Oct’20 at 3.6% from an increase of 0.5% in Sep’20.

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India’s Covid-19 curve is showing signs of tapering off with 7-day average additions of 50k compared with a 30-day and 90-day average of 56k and 65k respectively.

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Centre has recently released the 6th instalment of GST compensation cess of Rs 60bn thus taking the total transfer to states to Rs 360bn.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 26.5bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 4 Dec 2020.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moved up to 7.4% as on 8 Dec 2020 compared to 6.6% in the previous week.

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Domestic LPG price (non-subsidised) has risen by Rs 50 to Rs 644/cylinder in Dec’20.

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US 10Y yield increased by 13bps on the back of hope of US fiscal stimulus.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand was stable at 5.8% for the fortnight ending 20 Nov 2020.

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While revising GDP growth to (-) 7.5% from (-) 9.5% earlier, MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and next financial year to support growth.

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Services activity in India continued to expand as PMI reading was at 53.7 in Nov’20 from 54.1 in Oct’20.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 10bn in Nov’20 from US$ 8.7bn in Oct’20 led by moderation in exports and stable non-oil-non-gold imports.

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India’s exports fell further in Nov’20 by 9.1% versus 5.1% drop in Oct’20. Oil exports fell much sharply by 63.8% (52% decline in Oct’20).

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India’s manufacturing PMI slipped to a 3-month low of 56.3 in Nov’20 from 58.9 in Oct’20.

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US$ weakened by 0.7% in the week with positive development on vaccine.

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The hike in petrol and diesel prices continued, with petrol prices up by Rs 1.28/lt and diesel prices by Rs 1.96/lt since 19 Nov 2020.

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From a decline of 23.9% in Q1, India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% in Q2FY21.

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RBI governor in his recent address highlighted that the sustainability of demand post festive season is to be carefully watched, as downside risks to growth still persist.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) fell by Rs 69bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 20 Nov 2020.

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High-frequency data for India shows that post festival demand, there is marginal easing in trading activity observed.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moderated to 6.4% as on 23 Nov 2020 against 6.7% in the previous week.

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Rising global Covid-19 cases (4.2mn) drove global 10Y yields lower.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand picked up to 5.7% for the fortnight ending 6 Nov 2020 compared with 5.1% in Oct’20.

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High frequency indicators show an underlying revival in economic activity led by private sector.

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Domestic trade activity in India continues to rise steadily as visible in rail freight movement which rose by 13.6% during 1-10 Nov 2020.

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As per news reports, government has received Rs 724.8bn from 45,855 cases under the tax dispute resolution scheme ‘Vivad se Vishwas’.

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RBI’s data showed that state borrowings in FYTD21 are up by 49% compared with last year and stood at Rs 4.48tn as of 17 Nov 2020.

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Global recovery strengthened further as seen in China’s industrial production and Japan’s Q3 GDP.

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As per news reports, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has signed an agreement with World Bank for providing advisory services on asset monetization.

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WPI rose to 1.5% in Oct’20 (1.3% in Sep’20) led by core which increased to 1.7% in Oct’20 from 1% in Sep’20.

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Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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Industrial production rebounded sharply to 0.2% in Sep’20 from a decline of 7.4% in Aug’20 with improvement across sectors.

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In an effort to boost manufacturing, government has approved Production Linked Incentives (PLI) for 10 sectors including white goods, auto and battery manufacturing.

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Noting a robust turnaround, India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 22.5% on a YoY basis in the period 1-7 Nov 2020 following a decline of 5.4% in Oct’20.

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As per news reports, cargo traffic in India’s 12 major ports fell for the 7th straight month by 1.2% in Oct'20 from a decline of 1.9% in Sep'20.

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India’s economic recovery gained steam as seen in improvement in GST collections, electicity demand, vehicle sales, freight movement and PMIs.

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Global equity markets surged as results of US Presidential elections indicated a change in guard.

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RBI’s fortnightly statistics showed that credit demand edged down to 5.1% as of 23 Oct 2020 from 5.7% in the previous fortnight.

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RBI announced the new Co-Lending Model (CML) to improve credit flow to the underserved section of the economy at an affordable cost.

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India’s services PMI expanded for the first time in over eight months to 54.1 in Oct’20 from 49.8 in Sep’20.

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Forward guidance by global central banks implies low yields and negative real global yields in the medium-term.

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India’s exports fell by 5.4% in Oct’20 from an increase of 6% in Sep’20 as per preliminary data.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to a 7-month high of US$ 8.8bn in Oct’20 from US$ 2.7bn in Sep’20 led by higher gold and non-oil-non-gold imports.

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India’s manufacturing PMI accelerated for the 3rd straight month to a 13-year high of 58.9 in Oct’20 from 56.8 in Sep’20.

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Global equity markets and yields fell on the back of rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and US.

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Total GST collections for Sep’20 rose by 10.2% on YoY basis to Rs 1tn from Rs 955bn in Aug’20 (3.9% increase).

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 81bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 23 Oct 2020.

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RBI’s study on state budgets indicates that while states had projected fiscal deficit for FY21 at 2.8% (of GSDP), it is expected at 4.6% instead.

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As per news reports, Government of India is expected to announce another round of fiscal stimulus around the festive season.

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Despite rising Covid-19 cases in Europe, US and UK yields inched up on the back of impending stimulus in US and Brexit deal.

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In order to meet the GST compensation cess gap, GoI has transferred Rs 60bn to 16 states under the 1st tranche of Rs 1.1tn payment to be made.

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MPC members favoured forward guidance on accommodative conditions to anchor market expectations of liquidity.

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According to CMIE data, rural unemployment rose to 7.93% in the week ending 4 Oct 2020, compared with only 4.73% in the previous week.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 47bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 16 Oct 2020.

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According to EPFO’s data, it added 0.67mn new subscribers to its subscriber base in Aug’20 compared with 0.65mn added in Jul’20.

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As part of Atma Nirbhar Bharat package, GoI has proposed to cover 25mn farmers under the Kisan Credit Card scheme with a credit boost of Rs 2tn through the saturation drive.

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Fresh restrictions in Europe to curb COVID-19, uncertainty around US fiscal stimulus, drop in Germany’s ZEW sentiment index and higher US jobless claims led to risk-off driving global yields and equities lower and US$ higher.

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India’s rail freight data shows continued improvement in domestic trade activity in Oct’20 so far.

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Centre has increased its borrowing program for FY21 as it has decided to borrow Rs 1.1tn on behalf of states to meet the GST compensation cess shortfall.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 21bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 9 Oct 2020.

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WPI rose to 1.3% in Sep’20 from 0.2% in Aug’20 led by increase in food (6.9% in Sep’20 from 4.1% in Aug’20) and manufactured inflation (1.6% in Sep’20 from 1.3% Aug’20).

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IMF expects India’s GDP to contract by 10.3% compared with a 4.5% dip estimated earlier.

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Government of India has announced a slew of measures like LTC cash voucher, restoring the festival advance scheme for central and state government employees in order to boost demand in the economy.

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India’s industrial recovery continued with a decline of 8% in Aug’20 as against 10.8%.

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Global yields and equities went up with hopes of fresh US fiscal stimulus gaining ground.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and maintain the accommodative stance into the current and next financial year.

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A silver lining seems to be emerging with positive growth visible in exports, auto and electricity output, rural wages, GST collections and rail freight.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged.

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World Bank has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY21, estimating a contraction of 9.6% versus 4.5% decline estimated in Jun’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 29bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 2 Oct 2020.

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India’s services PMI improved substantially to 49.8 in Sep’20 from 41.8 in Aug’20.

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Government of India has appointed 3 external members to the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI.

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Global manufacturing PMIs and US consumer confidence supported higher global yields.

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Total GST collections for Aug’20 jumped by 3.9% on YoY basis to Rs 955bn from Rs 864bn in Jul’20 (12% decline).

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India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 2.9bn in Sep’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 as exports rose by 5.3%, first time in 6-months.

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India’s eight core output contracted for the 6th straight month to 8.5% in Aug’20 from 8% in Jul’20.

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Centre has maintained its borrowing plan of Rs 12tn implying gross and net borrowing of Rs 4.25tn and Rs 3.37tn in H2.

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After reporting a current account surplus of US$ 0.6bn in Q4, India reported a surplus of US$ 19.8bn (3.9% of GDP) in Q1FY21 as imports fell more sharply than exports.

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In an effort to provide liquidity to States, RBI has decided to continue with the increased WMA limit (of 60%) till Mar’21 from Sep’20 earlier.

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In an effort to boost SCBs liquidity, RBI has extended the MSF relaxation till 31 Mar 2021 from 30 Sep 2020 earlier.

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Global equities fell and DXY regained strength with European governments imposing fresh restrictions to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

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S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade at BBB- with stable outlook.

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As announced under the Atama Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, centre has increased the borrowing limits of 5 states (A.P, Telangana, Karnataka, Goa and Tripura) by 0.5% of their GSDP as they have implemented the ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ card scheme.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 58bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 18 Sep 2020.

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According to the first advance estimates, total food grain production in the country during the kharif season is estimated at 144.5mn ton, on the back of normal monsoon.

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Government has hiked the MSP for Rabi crops for the marketing season (2021-2022) in line with the recommendations of Swaminathan Commission.

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Major central banks kept the policy rates on hold with US Fed likely to keep ultra-low rates till 2023.

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India’s forex reserves fell by US$ 353mn in the week ended 11 Sep 2020 to US$ 541.7bn.

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Lok Sabha passed the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) and Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill.

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According to news reports, centre’s direct tax collections are down by ~22.4% in H1FY21 so far (15 Sep 2020) and stand at Rs 2.54tn compared with Rs 3.27tn in the same period last year.

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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ADB expects India’s GDP to contract by 9% in FY21 versus 4% decline estimated earlier.

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CPI eased to 6.7% in Aug’20 driven by lower food inflation at 9.1%.

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WPI rose to 0.2% in Aug’20 after declining for 4 straight months (0.6% in Jul’20) led by increase in manufactured inflation.

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Global recovery gained steam led by higher exports by China and Taiwan.

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RBI purchased a record US$ 16bn in Jul20 (net) in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 10.4% in Jul’20 as against a decline of 15.8% in Jun’20.

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Government has constituted a three-member expert committee for assessment of relief to bank borrowers.

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As per news reports, government has released Rs 103bn to developers, for expediting infrastructure projects amidst COVID-19.

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As per news reports, government is planning to sell about 15-20% of its stake in IRCTC in FY21 through OFS route in tranches.

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India’s manufacturing PMI moved into expansion zone, in-line with other large economies.

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RBI has released the KV Kamath Committee report on resolution framework for COVID-19 related stress.

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Chinese yields rose as domestic economic activity continues to show improvement.

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Andhra Pradesh retained the top position in the state wise ease of doing business rankings, followed by UP and Telengana.

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India’s services PMI improved in Aug’20 to 41.8 from 34.2 in Jul’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 28 Aug 2020.

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Total GST collections eased to Rs 864bn from Rs 874bn in Jun’20, registering a 12% YoY decline.

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Centre’s fiscal deficit continues to remain elevated as revenue receipts are in free fall while spending is maintained.

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India’s GDP growth in Q1FY21 contracted by 23.9%.

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Global 10Y yields went up as macro data showed further improvement in economic activity: China’s industrial profits, US durable goods and new home sales.

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As per RBI data, credit demand edged down to 5.5% for the fortnight ending 14 Aug 2020 against 5.7% in Jul’20.

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In the GST council meet the FM informed the states that centre will not able to meet the full demand of GST compensation in FY21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 33.8bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 21 Aug 2020.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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According to Ministry of Finance, post the implementation of GST, tax compliance has improved and average tax rate has been reduced for the system.

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Global yields (ex-India and China) fell after macro data showed global recovery flattening, in particular in Eurozone.

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India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 2.9bn in the week ended 14 Aug 2020 to US$ 535.3bn.

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MPC members noted future growth trajectory remains uncertain.

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While India’s growth seems to have bottomed out in Q1FY21, growth trajectory still remains uncertain.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 56bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 14 Aug 2020.

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As per news reports, government has received proposals worth Rs 12tn for the next five years under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

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In an effort to provide greater funding to NBFCs, government has decided to expand the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0 by another three months till 19 Nov’20.

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Worst seems to be over for global economy with Euro Area, Singapore and UK reporting sharp contraction for Q2CY20.

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RBI approved a transfer of Rs 571.3bn for the accounting year 2019-20 to the government, while maintaining the contingency risk buffer at 5.5%.

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India’s trade balance slipped into deficit of US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 from a surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20.

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WPI contracted by 0.6% in Jul’20 from 1.8% in Jun’20 led by 4.3% increase in food and 0.5% increase in manufactured inflation.

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RBI purchased net US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20 in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 4.4bn in May’20.

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CPI inflation accelerated to 6.9% in Jul’20 (6.2% in Jun’20) led by higher food and core inflation.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 136.2bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ended 7 Aug 2020.

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India’s auto sales showed improvement as the pace of contraction eased significantly in Jul’20 to 18.6% from 43% in Jun’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 16.6% in Jun’20 as against a decline of 33.9% in May’20.

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While global economy is showing signs of expansion with manufacturing and services PMIs above 50, India’s PMIs have decelerated owing to local lockdowns in Jul’20.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate for the week ending 9 Aug 2020 rose considerably to 8.7% from 7.2% in the previous week.

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Global yields rose with macro data surprising positively.

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Government of India recently launched the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund worth Rs 1tn to provide support to FPOs, PACs and farmers so as to build community farming assets and post-harvest infrastructure.

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RBI voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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MPC unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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India’s services activity still remained muted with PMI print at 34.2 in Jul’20 against 33.7 in Jun’20; remaining far below the 50-mark.

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As per FCI, a total of 75.9mn MT of foodgrain stock is available; of this 9.5mn MT is required each month under NFSA, PMGKAY and other schemes.

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India’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the 4th straight month to 46 in Jul’20 from 47.2 in Jun’20.

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US yields and US$ fell in the week after a steep contraction in US GDP, falling consumer confidence and Fed’s prediction of weak economic recovery.

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GST collections for Jun’20 was recorded at Rs 874bn, down from Rs 909bn for May’20.

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In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce the dependency on inbound shipments of non-essential items in India, government has imposed restrictions on imports of colour televisions.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 48bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 24 Jul 2020.

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According to news reports, railway freight reported its first YoY increase (0.3%) in FY21 on 27 Jul 2020.

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As per news reports, cabinet has given approval for disinvestment in 22-23 PSUs to meet FY21 target of Rs 2.1tn.

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Global economy maintained growth momentum as seen in US home sales and higher flash PMIs.

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RBI’s FSR indicated that financial conditions of SCBs have worsened with respect to soundness, liquidity and efficiency parameters in Mar’20 against Sep’19.

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In yet another sign of revival, India’s crude oil processing rose by 10.9% in Jun’20 to 4.29mbpd against 3.87mbpd in May’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 20bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 17 Jul 2020.

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According to news reports, number of registered companies in the country stands at 2mn as of 30 Jun 2020.

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Pace of contraction in India’s port cargo volumes reduced in Jun’20 to 14.5% from 23.3% in May’20.

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China continues to lead global recovery with GDP growth rebounding to 3.2% in Q2CY20 from a decline of 6.8% in Q1.

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RBI’s fortnightly data indicates credit growth eased further to 6.1 % as of 3 Jul 2020 from 6.2% in the previous fortnight and 12% in the same period last year.

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As per news reports, banks have sanctioned Rs 1.23tn of the Rs 3tn Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for MSMEs.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 124.5bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 10 Jul 2020.

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India registered a trade surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20, a first in 18-years versus a deficit of US$ 3.1bn in May’20 as exports recovered.

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India’s auto sales fell by 43% in Jun’20 versus a decline of 84.8% in May’20.

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WPI contracted by 1.8% in Jun’20 from 3.2% in May’20 led by 13.6% decline in fuel and power index in Jun’20 compared with 19.8% in May’20.

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NSO released India’s CPI data for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20.

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NSO released CPI inflation for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20 data.

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Global equity markets continued upward momentum led by China as economic activity rebounds.

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India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 versus a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 as against a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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As per news reports, central government is planning a stake sale in Coal India and IDBI bank to raise nearly Rs 200bn in disinvestment proceeds.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 49.5bn and stood at Rs 26.6tn for the week ending 3 Jul 2020.

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As per news reports, CPSEs have been tasked by the FM to ensure that 50% of their budgeted capital outlay (Rs 1.66tn) is spent by Q2FY21.

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As per news reports, central government has extended the 15% spending limit for various departments to Q2FY21 as well.

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India’s economy improved further in Jun’20 as visible in higher filing of GST e-way bills, digital payments, tractor sales and manufacturing PMIs.

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Early signs of global recovery are visible with improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs and strong US jobs report.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 1.3bn in the week ended 26 Jun 2020 compared with a decline of US$ 2.1bn last week.

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As per news reports, under government’s Atmanirbhar package, banks have sanctioned Rs 629bn to over 7mn Kisan Credit Card (KCC) holders as on Jun’20.

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Latest GST collections and manufacturing PMI indicate that economy is on the path of recovery in May/Jun’20.

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Central government tax revenues continue to remain weak as direct tax collections fell by 14.6% in FYTD21 (Apr-May) versus 12.1% rise in the same period last year.

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After a span of 13 years, India reported a current account surplus.

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In view of the current liquidity scenario, RBI has again decided to conduct simultaneous purchase of longer dated securities and sell shorter duration ones, of Rs 100bn each.

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Despite global economy gaining positive momentum in the form of improvement in consumer confidence and US home sales, equity markets and yields fell as markets were worried about resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

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Indian yields have fallen in-line with global yields even as general government issuances are estimated to increase to ~9.5% of GDP.

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In an effort to provide a helping hand to non-MSMEs, government is considering a one-time loan restructuring facility especially for those businesses which have been severely hit by the pandemic.

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As per news reports, led by steep hike in excise duty on petrol and diesel and pick-up in demand, centre’s excise collections have risen to ~Rs 400bn in FYTD21 (Apr-May).

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As per World Bank data, India has retained its position as the third largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

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Moody’s has cut India’s growth projection in FY21 and expects GDP to contract by 3.1% against 0.2% estimated earlier.

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Global short-end yields (apart from Germany) were lower as IMF cautioned of sharper downturn and COVID-19 cases increased.

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Government has launched Garib Kalyan Rojgaar Abhiyaan to generate employment for migrant workers.

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Outlook on India’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been revised to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ by Fitch ratings, while maintaining rating at ‘BBB-’.

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RBI as the regulator of HFC’s has proposed certain changes such as providing a formal definition of housing finance (not available under NHB).

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According to news reports, direct tax collections in Apr-Jun’20 have fallen by 32.8% so far to Rs 927bn versus Rs 1.38tn last year.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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Headline WPI fell by 3.2% in May’20 led by 19.8% drop in fuel inflation.

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Global yields closed lower after US FOMC painted a dismal picture of recovery for the US economy in CY20.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 8.2bn to a record-high at US$ 501.7bn in the week ended 5 Jun 2020 compared with an increase of US$ 3.4bn last week.

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India’s industrial production contracted by 55.5% in Apr’20 on the back of a nationwide lockdown led by 95.7% and 92% reduction in consumer durables and capital goods respectively.

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RBI sold net US$ 1.1bn in the spot market in Apr’20 compared with US$ 4.1bn sales in Mar’20.

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OECD in its latest economic outlook has projected India’s GDP to contract sharply by 3.7% in FY21.

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According to news reports, GST collections have steadily declined in Mar and Apr’20, showing the impact of nationwide lockdown.

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World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 3.2% in FY21 as lockdown measures to curtail COVID-19 derail economic activity.

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India’s economy is showing signs of recovery with E-way bills and electricity demand showing signs of improvement from Apr’20 levels.

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Global economic activity showed signs of improvement with PMIs gaining MoM traction led by China and US.

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RBI has announced establishment of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF).

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MPC members reduced policy rate by 40bps as the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic economy is far more severe than initially anticipated.

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Central government has released Rs 364bn as GST compensation for states for Dec’19-Feb’20.

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India’s services activity still contracted as visible in the PMI print.

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In an effort to support Make in India initiative, India has launched US$ 6.65bn plan to boost electronic manufacturing.

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Moody’s downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with negative outlook on the back of rising fiscal deficits, growth contraction and higher debt levels (30% more than Baa median).

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Moody’s has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to its lowest investment grade for the first time in 22 years.

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Led by nationwide lockdown to curtail the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, India’s infrastructure index contracted to a record low of 38.1% in Apr’20 from a decline of 9% in Mar’20.

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Global macro data showed some improvement with US home sales and EU consumer confidence surprising positively.

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India’s FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP is higher than FY20RE of 3.8%.

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India’s FY20 growth slipped to 4.2% from 6.1% due to lower consumption and investment demand.

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FDI inflows into India rose by 18% to US$ 73.5bn in FY20 versus US$ 62bn in FY19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 221bn and stood at Rs 26.1tn for the week ending 22 May 2020.

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CBIC has announced that between 8 Apr-24 May 2020, Rs 110.5bn worth GST refunds have been processed.

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Global economy is showing signs of pick-up with flash PMIs showing MoM improvement.

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According to news reports, direct tax collections in FYTD21 (till 23 May) eased to Rs 916.5bn compared with Rs 1.1tn in the same period last year.

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MPC announced another 40bps reduction in policy rate to 4%.

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Central government has sanctioned Rs 920.8bn for transfers to states for Apr-May'20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 193.6bn and stood at Rs 25.9tn for the week ended 15 May 2020.

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India’s exports are expected to fall by 20% in FY21 (decline of 4.3% in FY20) as per estimates by FIEO.

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NABARD has disbursed Rs 205bn to cooperative banks and RRBs.

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US yields closed lower due to poor economic data (retail sales, jobless claims, Fed Chair comments).

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In the last tranche of the fiscal package, the FM announced a 2% rise in state borrowings.

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The FM today announced a 2% increase in states borrowing by Rs 4.28tn to Rs 10.69tn.

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The FM today announced measures to 1) Fast Track investments, 2) Open up coal and mining sector to private sector, 3) Privatisation of DISCOMs in UTs, and 4) Boost defence manufacturing and aviation sector.

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The FM today announced third tranche of 10% stimulus focused on agri sector.

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The second stimulus was worth Rs 3.2tn, of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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The second stimulus is worth Rs 3.2tn out of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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The trend of food, fuel and available categories of manufactured products shows a decline in wholesale inflation.

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As a part of Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, FM has announced Rs 6tn boost for MSMEs, NBFCs and power sector.

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Honourable PM announced a big bang Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package to stimulate the economy and give impetus to local manufacturing.

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Government has announced stimulus of Rs 20tn (10% of GDP) to combat the economic crisis.

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Even with data capturing challenges, underlying trend of higher food prices and lower production (IIP contracted by 16.7%) has been captured.

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An estimated 73% of India’s economy is open now compared with 30% in Apr’20.

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India’s growth bottomed out in Apr’20 with 70% of the economy in lockdown.

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Government has released Rs 62bn to 14 States as second monthly instalment for revenue deficit grants.

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Global yields steepened with US unemployment rate increasing to 14.7% and disappointing US factory and Germany’s exports data.

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Centre has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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Central government has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 122bn and stood at Rs 25.3tn for the week ending 1 May 2020.

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Government has hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 2) & Rs 13 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 5) respectively.

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India’s manufacturing PMI reading fell sharply to 27.4 in Apr’20 compared with 51.8 in Mar’20.

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Oil prices rose and DXY fell as global risk sentiment improved.

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According to news reports, total GST collections for Mar’20 fell to Rs 283bn versus Rs 976bn in Feb’20 and Rs 1.13tn in Mar’19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 166.6bn and stood at Rs 25.2tn for the week ending 24 Apr 2020.

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ADB has announced an assistance package of US$ 1.5bn for India in order to counter the effects of COVID-19 on health, welfare and overall economy.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3.1mn as of 27 Apr 2020 versus 2.5mn last week.

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The week saw negative oil prices, a first as global supply outran storage due to demand compression.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3mn as of 26 Apr 2020, yet the pace of increase is declining. On a daily basis, new cases in US rose the most by 26,730, followed by Spain at 2,870 and Italy at 2,324.

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As per news reports, government has decided to amend the insolvency law and suspend sections 7, 9 and 10 for 6 months-1 year.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 196.3bn and stood at Rs 25tn for the week ending 17 Apr 2020.

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As per news reports, government is likely to announce another stimulus package amounting to Rs 6-8tn (3-4% of GDP).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.5mn as of 20 Apr 2020.

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Global equity markets closed higher on the hope of successful treatment to Covid-19 to hit the markets soon enough.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.4mn as of 19 Apr 2020.

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Following up on measures announced on 27 March, RBI today announced 1) 25bps reduction in reverse repo rate, 2) TLTRO of Rs 500bn for NBFCs, 3) Higher WMA limits for states, 4) Standstill on asset classification norms, and 5) Scope for further reduction in policy rates.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.2mn as of 16 Apr 2020.

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India’s exports fell steeply in Mar’20 by 34.6% versus an increase of 2.9% in Feb’20.

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India’s trade deficit remained steady at US$ 9.8bn in Mar’20 on a MoM basis.

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WPI inflation moderated to a 4-month low of 1% in Mar’20 from 2.3% in Feb’20.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2mn as of 14 Apr 2020. However the pace of increase is slowing with daily fresh cases rising by only 4% this week vs an average increase of 8% last week.

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CPI moderated to a 4-month low of 5.9% in Mar’20 led by food inflation.

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MPC members voted unanimously to cut rates and keep an accommodative stance.

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Globally risk sentiment improved with new projections showing US deaths may be lower than worst case scenario anticipated earlier.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.8mn as of 12 Apr 2020 (1.04 times increase vs last week).

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Industrial growth rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in Feb’20 from 2.1% in Jan’20.

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With 70% of economy in a lockdown, we see sharp reduction in domestic consumption and investment demand.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.5mn as of 8 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.4mn as of 7 Apr 2020 (1.3 times increase vs last week).

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World added fewer cases of COVID-19 in the last few days which resulted in a rebound in equity markets.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.3mn as of 6 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.02mn as of 2 Apr 2020 (1.8 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 856,581 as of 31 Mar 2020 (2.1 times increase vs last week).

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Centre’s H1FY21 gross borrowing is pegged at Rs 4.88tn in H1FY21 compared with Rs 4.25tn in H1FY20.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 7,84,395 as of 30 Mar 2020 (2.2 times increase vs last week).

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Global markets responded positively to US fiscal stimulus.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 703,700 as of 29 Mar 2020 (2.3 times increase vs last week).

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With 70% of economy in lockdown, MPC members reduced repo and reverse repo rate by 75bps and 90bps respectively.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 514,999 as of 26 Mar 2020 (3.4 times increase vs last week).

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With complete lockdown, ~70% of economic activity — investment, exports and discretionary consumption — has come to a halt.

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and have risen to 462,346 as of 26 Mar 2020 (2.8 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and rose 3.5 times to 368,227 for the week ended 23 Mar 2020.

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A 3 times increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases to 152,366, drove Dow down by 17.1%.

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally. For the week ended 22 Mar 2020, number of COVID-19 globally increased 2 times to 318,297.

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As per news reports, Ministry of Finance is considering a Rs 100-200bn stimulus package to support the aviation sector.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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Centre’s direct tax collections on FYTD basis reached Rs 8.6tn as of Feb’20 vs FY20RE of Rs 11.7tn.

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In an effort to boost durable liquidity to combat the impact of COVID-19, RBI has announced that it will conduct LTROs in multiple tranches at policy rate, amounting to Rs 1tn.

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WPI inflation edged down to 2.3% in Feb’20 from 3.1% in Jan’20 led by food inflation (7.8% in Feb’20 vs 11.5% in Jan’20).

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In a surprise move, US Fed reduced policy rate by 1% and announced US$ 700bn of bond purchases.

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GST council has hiked rates on mobile phones to 18% from 12%, in order to correct the inverted duty structure.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 9.9bn in Feb’20 from US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 as oil, electronic and capital goods imports came-off on MoM basis.

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CPI inflation in India edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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India’s CAD fell to US$ 1.4bn (0.2% of GDP) in Q3FY20 from US$ 6.5bn in Q2FY20 (0.9% of GDP) on the back of lower trade deficit.

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CPI inflation edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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While domestic manufacturing and services sector PMIs have risen to 8-year and 7-year highs respectively, global PMIs have shrunk led by China.

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RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in Jan’20 in the spot market (highest in 5 years) vs US$ 4.4bn in Dec’19.

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As per news reports, government may bring down the tax rate on dividend income for domestic investors from 43% to 20% in the highest tax bracket.

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Global yields fell as markets assess economic impact of COVID-19.

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The government has sought parliament approval for an additional spending of Rs 540bn in FY20.

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EPFO has cut interest rate by 15bps to its 7-year low of 8.5% in FY20.

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India’s services PMI rose to 57.5 in Feb’20 from 55.5 in Jan’20.

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 10.7bn in Q3FY20 vs US$ 9.8bn in Q2FY20.

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India’s manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 54.5 in Feb’20 from 55.3 in Jan’20.

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Global markets fell as COVID-19 outbreak spread beyond China to Italy, South Korea and Middle East.

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India’s central government fiscal deficit is at 4.3% of GDP (12M trailing basis) in Jan’20 vs FY20 (RE) of 3.8%.

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India’s GDP and GVA growth moderated to 4.7% and 4.5% in Q3FY20 from a revised growth of 5.1% and 4.9% in Q2.

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As per news reports, EPFO is considering a 15bps cut in deposit rate to 8.5% for FY20 vs 8.65% in FY19.

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India’s economic slowdown is likely to bottom out in FY20 – we expect growth to tick up to 5.5% in FY21 and 6.2% in FY22 spurred by infrastructure spends, funded by strategic sale and divestment of CPSEs.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 110bn and stood at Rs 23.6tn for the week ending 21 Feb 2020.

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According to NSO report, ESIC added 1.3mn persons as new subscribers in Dec’19 vs 1.5mn persons in Nov’19.

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According to news reports, Ministry of Finance is not in favour of postponing the payment of AGR dues of telecom companies beyond the deadline.

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Economic data of Japan, China, Eurozone, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand shows flagging demand due to impact of COVID-19 or tax hike in Japan.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 92bn and stood at Rs 23.5tn for the week ending 14 Feb 2020.

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MPC members noted that economic activity has slowed down since the last policy.

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According to 2nd advance estimates, India is expected to clock a record foodgrain production which is 2.4% (291.95mn tonne in AY20) higher than last year.

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Government has suggested changes to incentivise Vivaad se Vishwas scheme to resolve pending tax disputes worth Rs 9.32tn.

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While US macro data was mixed, Euro Area’s Q4 GDP growth was at a 7-year low as German economy stagnated and France and Italy’s contracted.

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India’s export growth in Jan’20 fell to 4-month low of (-) 1.7% vs (-) 1.6% in Dec’19, led by sharp fall in exports of gems & jewellery, agriculture items and engineering goods.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 from US$ 11.3bn as exports fell at a faster pace than imports.

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WPI inflation inched up to 3.1% in Jan’20 from 2.6% in Dec’19 led by fuel & power inflation (3.4%) and manufactured inflation (0.3%).

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According to Ministry of Agriculture, India has clocked a record foodgrain production (final estimates) at 285.17mn tonnes in 2018-19 vs 285.01mn tonne in 2017-18.

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India’s CPI jumped to 7.6% in Jan’20 from 7.4% in Dec’19 led by increase in pulses, protein and cereal inflation.

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CPI inflation jumped to 7.6% in Jan’20 (7.4% in Dec’19) led by acceleration in pulses, protein and cereal inflation.

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RBI bought net US$ 4.4bn in the spot market in Dec’19 vs US$ 6.9bn in Nov’19.

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While government spending will be a drag on growth in Q4FY20 on the back of muted revenues, manufacturing and services sector PMI has risen to 8-year and 7-year high respectively.

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The slowdown in India’s auto sales continued in Jan’20 with passenger car sales declining by (-) 8.1% vs (-) 8.4% in Dec’19.

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While global yields inched up in US and Euro Area, yields were lower in China and India on the back of measures by PBoC and RBI.

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India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh historic high of US$ 471.3bn in the week ended 31 Jan 2020.

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RBI’s MPC members kept policy rate and stance unchanged and reiterated room for further rate cuts.

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MPC members kept policy rate and stance unchanged and reiterated room for further rate cuts.

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India’s services PMI rose to a 7-year high of 55.5 in Jan’20 from 53.3 in Dec’19.

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As per news reports, India may issue US$ 5bn bonds in FY21, with no cap on foreign investment.

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India’s manufacturing PMI rose to a near 8-year high of 55.3 in Jan’20 from 52.7 in Dec’19.

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Global yields fell led by US over concerns of economic impact of coronavirus.

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Total GST collections for Dec’19 reached Rs 1.1tn (+8% on YoY basis) from Rs 1tn in Nov’19 (+8.9%).

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With a 3.8% and 3.5% fiscal deficit in FY20 and FY21, the FM delivered a counter cyclical Budget to boost consumption and investment.

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CSO has revised FY18 and FY19 GDP growth lower by 20bps and 70bps respectively.

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Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 6-6.5% in FY21 from 5% in FY20 on the back of a low base, higher global demand and measures taken by the government to improve investment and consumption.

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According to news reports, the government has collected over Rs 380bn in taxes under the Sabka Vishwas scheme (legacy dispute resolution) vs target of Rs 350 bn.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 25.5bn and stood at Rs 23tn for the week ending 24 Jan 2020.

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In an effort to boost alternate sources of infra funding, NHAI has planned to raise Rs 150-200bn through its maiden InvIT offer.

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According to first advance estimates for 2019-20, horticulture output is expected to rise by 0.8% to 313.3mn tn (2019-20) compared with last year.

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Global yields, equities and commodities fell over impact of spread of Coronavirus on economic growth.

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India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh lifetime high of US$ 462.2bn in the week ended 17 Jan 2020.

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We believe reviving growth and investments will take centre stage in FY21 Budget.

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As per news reports, government is seeking Rs 100bn interim dividend from RBI in FY20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 68.9bn and stood at Rs 23tn for the week ending 17 Jan 2020.

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According to news reports, direct tax collections on FYTD basis (till 15 Jan 2020) are down by (-) 5.2% to Rs 7.3tn vs BE of Rs 13.4tn.

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IMF has revised India’s growth projection downward sharply to 4.8% in FY20 (6.1% earlier).

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US equity markets surged to new highs on the back of signing of US-China trade deal and positive macro data in US (retail sales, housing starts) and China (GDP, industrial production, investments).

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As per news reports, central government has raised tax department’s targets for GST collections to Rs 1.15tn for Jan and Feb’20 and to Rs 1.25tn for Mar’20.

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UN estimates India’s GDP growth to slow down to 5.7% in FY20 from 6.8% in FY19 and 7.6% estimated earlier.

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India’s trade deficit in Dec’19 narrowed to US$ 11.3bn from US$ 12.1bn in Nov’19 as imports fell by (-) 8.8% vs (-) 1.8% decline in exports.

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India’s trade deficit in Dec’19 narrowed to US$ 11.3bn from US$ 12.1bn in Nov’19 as imports fell by (-) 8.8% vis-à-vis (-) 1.8% decline in exports.

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As per news reports, government is seeking Rs 190bn as dividend from state oil companies.

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WPI inflation edged up to 7-month high of 2.6% in Dec’19 from 0.6% in Nov’19 led by food inflation which rose to 11% in Dec’19 (9% in Nov’19).

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CPI in India spiked to 7.4% in Dec’19 from 5.5% in Nov’19, led by sharp acceleration in food prices (14.1%).

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CPI rose to more than 5-year high of 7.4% in Dec’19 led by food inflation at 14.1%.

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US 10Y yield went up despite lower than estimated payroll additions.

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India’s passenger car sales continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace to (-) 8.4% in Dec’19 from (-) 10.8% in Nov’19.

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Industrial growth rose to 4-month high of 1.8% in Nov’19 from (-) 4% in Oct’19.

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While manufacturing and services PMIs picked up further in Dec’19, decelerating railway freight and credit growth, lacklustre non-oil-non-gold imports and dip in government spending imply that broader economic activity is muted.

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News reports suggest that the government is considering reducing the requirement and number of days for starting a new business from 10 process and 18 days presently, to 5 process and 5 days.

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World Bank estimates India’s GDP to grow at an 11-year low of 5% in FY20 from 6% estimated earlier.

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India’s GDP growth in FY20 is estimated at 5% vs 6.8% in FY19, due to sharp deceleration in investment (1% vs 10%) and PFCE (5.8% vs 8.1%).

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India’s growth is estimated at 5% in FY20 (6.8% in FY19).

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India’s services PMI rose to 53.3 in Dec’19 (5-month high) from 52.7 in Nov’19.

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US yields edged down as US consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing data was below estimates.

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As per news reports, government may propose a litigation settlement scheme on the lines of Sabka Vishwas scheme.

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India’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 7-month high of 52.7 in Dec’19 from 51.2 in Nov’19, signalling a possible recovery.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 22.7tn for the week ending 27 Dec 2019.

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India’s core sector output contracted for the 4th consecutive month to (-) 1.5% in Nov’19 from (-) 5.8% in Oct’19.

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Led by a sharp dip in trade deficit, India’s CAD narrowed to US$ 6.3bn (0.9% of GDP) in Q2 from US$ 14.2bn (2% of GDP) in Q1.

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State governments in India are expected to borrow Rs 2.1tn in Q4FY20 vs Rs 1.4tn in Q3FY20 (till 23 Dec).

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Global equity markets were higher and DXY weakened as risk-sentiment improved.

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RBI’s FSR highlighted capital adequacy of SCBs has improved after PSB recap.

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In order to balance liquidity mismatches, RBI announced another round of simultaneous OMO purchase (long end securities) and sale (short end) of Rs 100bn each.

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RBI’s report showed that GNPA ratio of SCBs declined to 9.1% in FY19 from 11.2% in FY18.

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According to news reports, central government is expected to report Rs 630bn shortfall in GST cess collections.

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Global equities went up as macro data continued to be positive with improvement in industrial output in US and China.

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India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh lifetime high of US$ 454.5bn in the week ended 13 Dec 2019.

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MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy rate and stance unchanged, though they believe the monetary space to cut rate exists.

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MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy rate and stance unchanged.

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GST Council in its meeting decided to keep a uniform tax rate on lottery at 28% and standardise rates on woven and non-woven bags (18%).

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As per news reports, Centre’s gross tax collections are up by 4.8% in FYTD20 (till 17 Dec) vs BE of 18.3%.

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As per news reports, Centre is expected to sell 28% of its 54.03% stake in BEML Ltd in order to inch closer to its Rs 1.05tn FY20BE disinvestment target.

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WPI inflation inched up to 0.6% in Nov’19 from 0.2% in Oct’19 led by food inflation which rose to 9% in Nov’19 (7.6% in Oct’19).

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Global economy seems to be in a better shape with exports from Germany and Taiwan improving.

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India’s trade deficit in Nov’19 rose to US$ 12.1bn vs US$ 11bn in Oct’19 led by higher gold (6.6% in Nov’19 vs 4.7% in Oct’19) and oil (-18.2% vs -31.7%) imports.

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India’s trade deficit in Nov’19 rose to US$ 12.1bn versus US$ 11bn in Oct’19 led by higher gold and oil imports.

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India’s IIP surprised positively at (-) 3.8% in Oct’19 vs (-) 4.3% in Sep’19.

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IIP surprised positively at (-) 3.8% in Oct’19 compared with (-) 4.3% in Sep’19.

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Union Cabinet has approved NHAI’s proposal to set up an Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) and monetise its completed highway projects.

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While manufacturing and services PMIs picked up in Nov’19, muted diesel demand, decelerating railway freight and non-oil-non-gold imports imply that broader economic activity is muted.

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ADB has sharply cut India’s growth forecast for FY20 to 5.1% from 6.5% earlier due to stress in the NBFC sector and muted consumption growth.

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As per news reports, government may increase the FDI limit for insurance companies to 74% in the Budget from 49% presently.

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Global yields went up as manufacturing and services PMIs rose led by China.

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RBI data shows that credit growth in Nov’19 eased to 6.9% vs 8.9% in Oct’19.

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RBI kept repo rate on hold as it revised its inflation trajectory to 4.9% in H2FY20 from 3.6% in Oct’19.

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RBI kept repo rate on hold as it revised its inflation trajectory upwards to 4.9% in H2FY20 from 3.6% in Oct’19.

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India’s services PMI jumped to 52.7 in Nov’19 from 49.2 in Oct’19.

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ISMA data showed sugar production has fallen by 54% to 1.89mn tonnes as on Nov’19 (4.07mn tonnes as on Nov’18).

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India’s manufacturing PMI rose marginally to 51.2 in Nov’19 from a 2-year low of 50.6 in Oct’19 on the back of improved business conditions.

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Global macro data showed a mix picture.

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GST collections for the month of Oct’19 reached Rs 1.03tn from Rs 954bn in Sep’19.

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India’s GDP growth fell to a 26-quarter low at 4.5% in Q2FY20 on the back of deceleration in investment demand to 1%.

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Central government presented bill for additional spending of Rs 212bn in the parliament.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 18.6bn and stood at Rs 22.6tn for the week ending 22 Nov 2019.

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In continuation with its disinvestment efforts, government has collected Rs 7.3bn from divestment of 10% stake in RITES Ltd, through the OFS route.

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In view of surging onion prices, MMTC has been contracted to import 6,090 tons of onion, in response to government’s decision to import 0.12mn tons.

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US existing home sales rose at its fastest pace in 2-years.

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As per news reports, government may amend the IBC in the winter session of the parliament.

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OECD has cut India’s GDP forecast to 5.8% in FY20 from 5.9% earlier and 6.8% in FY19.

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In a relief to the telecom sector, Cabinet has allowed a 2-year moratorium on spectrum related dues.

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Government has reaffirmed that it will be able to meet its FD target of 3.3% for FY20, with expenditure on track.

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Air passenger traffic has bounced back in Oct’19 supported by festive demand.

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Global yields fell due to delay in finalizing US-China trade deal and weaker than estimated industrial output in China, US and UK.

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India’s forex reserves rose to a new lifetime high of US$ 447.8bn in the week ended 8 Nov 2019.

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India’s trade deficit in Oct’19 remained steady at US$ 11.1bn versus US$ 10.9bn in Sep’19.

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WPI inflation eased to 0.2% in Oct’19 from 0.3% in Sep’19, led by fuel and power index (-8.3% vs -7.1%).

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WPI inflation cooled off to 0.2% in Oct’19 from 0.3% in Sep’19 led by fuel and power index which declined by (-) 8.3% in Oct’19.

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CPI inflation in India rose to a 16-month high at 4.6% in Oct’19, breaching MPC’s target of 4%, led by food inflation (vegetables at 26%).

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Retail inflation rose to a 16-month high of 4.6% in Oct’19, breaching MPC’s target of 4%, led by food inflation (especially vegetables at 26% and pulses at 11.7%).

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RBI bought net US$ 5.6bn in the spot market in Sep’19 vs net sales of US$ 4.1bn in Aug’19.

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Industrial growth declined by (-) 4.3%, lowest in the current series.

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Global sentiment improved as US and China are near to a trade deal.

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As per news reports, government revenue receipts might see a turnaround with implementation of Direct Tax Code.

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Consumption demand remained muted even as mild pick-up was seen in the festive season.

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Moody's downgraded India's credit rating outlook to negative from stable.

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Government has approved Rs 250bn special window as a Category-2 Alternate Investment Fund (AIF) to boost real estate sector.

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India’s services PMI fell to 49.2 in Oct’19 vs 48.7 in Sep’19.

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India has decided to not join RCEP citing concerns over India’s economic interests particularly for farmers, MSMEs and consumers.

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Third consecutive rate cut by US Fed and continuation of accommodative stance by BoJ led to decline in global yields.

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Total GST collections for Sep’19 rose to Rs 954bn from Rs 919bn in Aug’19.

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Central government’s fiscal deficit reached Rs 6.5tn in H1FY20 vs FY20BE of Rs 7tn.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 308bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 25 Oct 2019.

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As per news reports, a Committee of Secretaries (CoS) will be formed to look at options for relief package to the telecom sector, in the wake of SC’s current ruling on AGR.

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Growth worries continued with dip in China’s industrial profits and decline in US imports.

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RBI data shows that credit growth inched up marginally by 8.8% for the fortnight ending 11 Oct 2019 vs 8.7% in Sep’19.

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BJP led alliance is set to be in power in Maharashtra and Haryana with 161 and 40 seats respectively out of 288 and 90 seats.

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In the latest round of World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business, India’s rank notched up 14 places to 63 among 190 countries.

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According to news reports, government is expected to announce MSP of Rabi crops for AY20, in a major relief to farmers.

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Growth concerns came to the fore as macro data in US (retail sales, industrial production) and China (exports, Q3GDP) disappointed.

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As per MoSPI data, implementation cost of 1,608 projects was Rs 19.2tn and their completion cost is estimated to be higher at Rs 23.1tn.

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MPC minutes show four out of six members favour accommodative stance and further rate cuts as long as economy is firmly on the path to recovery.

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As per news reports, domestic air passenger traffic growth moderated to 1.2% in Sep’19 compared with 3.9% in Aug ’19, on a YoY basis.

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India’s fuel demand in H1FY20 eased to 1.7% vs 3.8% in H1FY19. It is also lower than 2.9% increase seen in H2FY19.

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IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast downward by 90bps to 6.1% in FY20.

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India’s trade deficit in Sep’19 reduced to US$ 10.9bn versus US$ 13.5bn in Aug’19.

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CPI inflation in India rose to a 14-month high at 4% in Sep’19 led by food inflation, particularly vegetable (15.4%) and meat and fish (10.3%).

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Retail inflation rose to a 14-month high at 4% in Sep’19 led by food inflation, particularly vegetable (15.4%) and meat and fish (10.3%).

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WPI inflation eased to 0.3% in Sep’19 from 1.1% in Aug’19 driven by lower fuel and power inflation at (-) 7.1% in Sep’19 (-4% in Aug’19).

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Global sentiment improved as US and China reached a trade truce.

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World Bank has slashed India’s GDP forecast in FY20 to 6% from 7.5% earlier.

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IIP growth slipped to (-) 1.1% in Aug’19 vs 4.6% in Jul’19, lowest in this series.

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In order to boost compliance, government has made changes to the input tax credit scheme under GST.

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Economic sentiment improved after Centre’s surprise announcement to cut corporate tax even as consumption slowdown continued for another month.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 197bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 4 Oct 2019.

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According to National Bulk Handling Corporation (NHBC), foodgrain production is expected to be higher by 8.4mn tonne (140.57mn tonne in AY20) from its average output in the past 5 years.

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Global economy has slowed down further in Sep’19 with US ISM manufacturing index at a 10-year low.

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India’s services PMI index fell sharply in Sep’19 to 48.7 from 52.4 in Aug’19.

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India’s services PMI index fell sharply in Sep’19 to 48.7 from 52.4 in Aug’19.

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RBI reduced repo rate by 25bps thus taking cumulative rate cuts by the central bank to 135bps since Feb’19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 12.9bn and stood at Rs 21.8tn for the week ending 27 Sep 2019.

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Total GST collections for Aug’19 fell to Rs 919bn (-2.7%) vs Rs 982bn in Jul’19 (+4.5%).

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India’s core sector growth contracted by (-) 0.5% and to a 52-month low in Aug’19 from 2.7% in Jul’19.

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Centre has maintained its guidance of gross borrowings at Rs 7.1tn in FY20.

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Despite an increase in CAD to US$ 14.3bn in Q1 from US$ 4.6bn in Q4, India’s BoP surplus remained stable at US$ 14bn.

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Global manufacturing activity weakened further in Sep’19, especially in the Eurozone.

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Government has reviewed the progress in capex spending in H1FY20.

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RBI’s working group on Liquidity Management Framework has suggested to continue with the corridor system (call: target rate, repo: policy rate).

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by (-) Rs 179.1bn and stood at Rs 21.8tn for the week ending 20 Sep 2019.

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ADB has revised its growth forecast downward for India to 6.5% from 7.2% earlier in FY20.

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According to the 1st advance estimates, foodgrain production for agriculture year 2019-20 is expected to be (-) 0.7% lower at 140.57mn tonnes compared with last year.

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Global economy seems to have slowed down further led by dip in China’s retail sales and fixed asset investments.

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To address the current economic slowdown, government has reduced the effective corporate tax rate to 25.2% from 29.5% currently.

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India’s FM announced one of the boldest reform to kick start the investment cycle by reducing effective corporate tax rate by 4.3% to 25.2%.

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Government has announced measures to boost credit disbursement. It has asked state run banks to hold open meetings in 400 districts (200 districts will be covered by 29 Sep 2019) along with the NBFCs to focus on MSMEs and retail customers.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 111.5bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 13 Sep 2019.

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According to news reports, government is expected to increase the allocation of subsidised foodgrain by additional 2kg from the current 5kg of grains provided each month, under NFSA.

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India’s WPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.1% in Aug’19. Food inflation rose to 5.8% in Aug’19 (4.5% in Jul’19).

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WPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.1% in Aug’19.

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Even as ECB lowered its deposit rate by 10bps and announced a bond buying program, global yields inched up as US-China trade tensions eased.

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FM has announced measures to boost housing demand which includes relaxation of ECB guidelines for PMAY, in consultation with RBI.

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India’s trade deficit in Aug’19 remained stable at US$ 13.5bn versus US$ 13.4bn in Jul’19.

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RBI sold US$ 93mn in the spot market in Jul’19 vs purchase of US$ 2.5bn in Jun’19.

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Industrial activity surprised positively at 4.3% in Jul’19 led by mining and manufacturing.

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Consumption slowdown intensified in Aug’19 with further dip in auto demand.

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As per news reports, government will set up a fund to provide guarantees to borrowers with low credit score.

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RBI’s panel on housing finance securitisation market has suggested that an intermediary should be set up under NHB, wherein government will have a 51% ownership.

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Global manufacturing output remained weak while services sector seems to be holding up for now.

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Indian government has set up a taskforce to prepare the roadmap of “national infrastructure pipeline” in the next 5 years.

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In a bid to provide stimulus for road infrastructure, NHAI is expected to address concerns on multiple fronts.

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India’s services PMI slipped to 52.4 in Aug’19 from 53.8 in Jul’19 largely on account of softer pace of increase in new business inflows, particularly domestic orders.

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According to news reports, state governments are expected to suggest measures to help curtail lower prices that arise due to surplus stock of sugar.

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Global sovereign yields fell as economic outlook remains weak.

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India’s eight core industries rose by 2.1% in Jul’19 compared with 0.7% in Jun’19.

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India’s growth moderated to 5% in Q1FY20 on the back of a consumption and investment led slowdown.

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RBI in its Annual Report explained the transfer of a record amount of Rs 1.76tn to government (Rs 500bn last year).

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RBI will be transferring a record amount of Rs 1.76tn to government (Rs 500bn last year).

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In order to improve FDI inflows, Cabinet has permitted 100% FDI under the automatic route in contract manufacturing.

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As per news reports, government might provide stimulus to real estate sector reeling due to muted demand and liquidity woes.

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The downturn in global and domestic economy is mirrored in India’s consumption, investment and export slowdown. A growth revival requires lower interest rates and liquidity.

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The Bimal Jalan Committee on Economic Capital Framework (ECF) recommended that realised gains can be distributed while unrealised gains cannot be (Rs 7tn as on 31 Jun’18).

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Amidst weak global macro indicators (PMI and US new home sales), China announced new set of tariffs on US goods.

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In an effort boost domestic economy, FM has announced a host of economic reforms.

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As per news reports, domestic air passenger traffic rose by 3.1% between Jan-Jul’19; slowest pace in 5 years.

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RBI minutes revealed that MPC has kept room open for further reduction in rates as economic activity continues to decelerate.

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With economic activity continuing to decelerate since June policy meeting, RBI reduced policy rate by 35bps.

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According to news reports, 15th Finance Commission (FC) is expected to discontinue the revenue deficit grants given to states.

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According to fourth advance estimates, while foodgrain output at 285mn tonne missed its target for 2018-19, it was still higher than the last 5-year average.

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Global economy is slowing down with weak industrial output in US, China and Japan.

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India’s forex reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 430.6bn in the week ending 9 Aug 2019.

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India’s trade deficit declined to US$ 13.4bn from US$ 15.3bn in Jun’19 on the back of higher exports and lower imports.

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WPI inflation moderated to 1.1% in Jul’19 from 2% in Jun’19.

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India’s CPI slipped to 3.1% in Jul’19 from 3.2% in Jun’19.

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Retail inflation slipped to 3.1% in Jul’19 from 3.2% in Jun’19.

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Central Banks of Thailand, Philippines and New Zealand reduced policy rates to support growth which supported equity markets.

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As per news reports, government is aiming to launch new crop insurance scheme which will maximise benefits under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojona (PMFBY).

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Industrial growth edged down to a four month low of 2% in Jun’19 compared with 4.6% in May’19.

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Consumption and investment demand remained subdued with decline in auto sales, non-oil-non-gold imports, capital goods production and imports.

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RBI’s consumer confidence dropped to 95.7 in Jul’19 (lowest since Dec’18) vs 97.3 in May’19.

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RBI surprised with a 35bps cut in policy rates (4-2 vote) while maintaining an accommodative stance.

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RBI surprised with a 35bps reduction in policy rates (4-2 vote) while maintaining an accommodative stance.

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RBI in its current policy is expected to cut rates for the fourth successive time.

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India’s services PMI jumped back into expansion, rising to a 1-year high at 53.8 in Jul’19 from 49.6 in Jun’19.

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US-China trade war escalated as US announced additional tariffs on US$ 300bn of Chinese imports.

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India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 429.6 from a lifetime high of US$ 430.4bn in the week ending 26 Jul 2019.

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Total GST collections for Jun’19 reached Rs 1tn vs Rs 999bn in May’19.

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Central government’s fiscal data shows that it lowered its spending in Q1FY20 to 2% vs 8.7% in Q1FY19.

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Government has passed the code on wages bill which is expected to benefit over 500mn workers.

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According to data released by DIPAM, in FYTD20 the government has so far collected Rs 124bn through disinvestment vs the budgetary target of Rs 1.05tn.

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ECB held policy rates steady but emphasised that low inflation will call for more accommodation even though recession fear is low.