Research Reports

Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks

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Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets

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Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet

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Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed

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Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued

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FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times

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Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown

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The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy

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Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage

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US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22

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Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22

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Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22

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Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception

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With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards

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US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar

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Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks

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Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22

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Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength

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Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation

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Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base

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As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81

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India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect

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With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance

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ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22

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After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%

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RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns

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World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier

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We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)

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Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps

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China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction

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Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike

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With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated

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Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

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With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated

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Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge

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Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%

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Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21

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EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia

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Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting

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International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia

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Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings

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Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services

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PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth

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US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory

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Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation

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External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs

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Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis

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According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years

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Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices

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Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)

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Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21

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Global markets reacted to macro prints (US retail sales and industrial production) and US Fed Chair Powell’s speech

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DXY continued to hover around a 20-year high in May’22 amidst safe-haven demand as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by Fed

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Investors remained concerned about global economic recovery which remains fragile as inflationary pressure continue to build on globally

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 20.1bn in Apr’22 from US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22

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Rising fuel prices in India has led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control

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Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide

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India’s CPI rose to 7.8% in Apr’22 from 7% in Mar’22, reaching the highest level since May’14

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New project announcements in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly to Rs 6.2 lakh crore in FY22 versus Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY20

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Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked

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Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions

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Globally central banks are faced with the dilemma of high inflation and low growth

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Concerns over global growth drove global markets

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FPIs play an important role in the economy in terms of providing support to the equity and debt market besides adding strength to the foreign capital flows

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Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth

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Investors continued to monitor central bank decisions globally

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In line with expectations, Fed hiked the policy rate by 50bps, biggest jump in over 22-years and also announced measures to reduce its US$ 9tn balance sheet starting next month

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RBI clearly surprised markets by going for a rather abrupt 40bps hike in policy rate, signalling withdrawal of accommodation and also hiking the CRR rate by 50bps

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Global market is eyeing Fed’s policy decision and anticipating a rate hike of 50bps and also balance sheet reduction

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Employment is one of the leading indicators of growth as an increase in the same is a signal that more jobs are being created which will generate income and demand

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War between Russia and Ukraine continues to keep global commodity prices elevated

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Global currencies depreciated against the dollar in the last fortnight

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Global markets remained rattled by the stagflation like situation worldwide

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US GDP contracted unexpectedly by 1.4% in Q1CY22 (est. +1%) on the back of rising Covid-19 cases and waning fiscal support

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Expectations of a 50bps rate hike by the Fed next week, led to a sharp jump in US 10Y yield. DXY too strengthened to a 5-year high

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Global markets continue to track developments surrounding China’s Covid-19 outbreak and Fed policy tightening

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China’s Covid-19 outbreak worsened as reports indicated possibility of lockdown in Beijing

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Increasing hawkish rhetoric by major Central Banks and spread of Covid-19 in China kept global markets on edge

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Major global yields (US, Germany and UK) rose sharply following hawkish comments from Fed Chair and ECB officials

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US 10Y yield dropped sharply following IMF’s downgrade of global growth projection

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Evaluating historical data of international crude price and its impact on India’s growth and inflation reveal some interesting results

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Global yields rose sharply led by US as Fed officials signalled of a 75bps rate hike amidst aggravating inflationary concerns

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Every year, before the beginning of the monsoon season, different agencies predict if the rainfall will be normal or not

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Global currencies closed lower against the dollar

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Global equity and currencies broadly closed lower as war tensions escalated

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International oil prices rose by 2.7% on reports of phased sanction by EU on Russian oil

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22 from US$ 20.9bn in Feb’22 as exports rose at a much faster pace than imports on a MoM basis

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Retail inflation in both US (8.5% versus 8.4%) and India (6.95% versus 6.4%) was reported to be higher than expected in Mar’22

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India’s industrial output inched up at a much slower pace to 1.7% in Feb’22 (1.5% in Jan’22) with manufacturing output up by 0.8%

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International oil prices fell below US$100/bbl-a first since 16 Mar 2022, as investors are concerned about extended lockdown in China to curb Covid-19 cases

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Global markets continue to be watchful as concerns over ongoing Russia-Ukraine war eased

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Following new set of sanctions announced by the US on Russia, EU has also announced sanctions on Friday

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Sri Lanka has been embroiled in an economic crisis amidst record-high inflation and mounting debt

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RBI has kept the policy rates unchanged and is tilted towards what may be called a hawkish view as it has rephrased its accommodative stance while keeping it unchanged

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Global markets monitored hawkish Fed commentary

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FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that Fed officials might raise policy rates by 50bps in the next meeting

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Global markets tracked hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as developments surrounding the possibility of fresh sanctions on Russia by US and European countries

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Apr 2022, we expect MPC to change stance from accommodative to neutral

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Reports that Western countries are mulling fresh sanctions on Russia, including possible ban on Russian coal and oil imports once again cast a shadow on global recovery

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Latest data for US unemployment shows that the rate was down to 2-year low of 3.6% Mar’22, indicating that a strong labour market will push US Fed to hiking rates more aggressively

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After depreciating to a record-low of 76.97/$, INR has stabilised in the last few days

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RBI in a recent report has highlighted three industries-electricity, chemicals and automobiles, as being the most vulnerable sectors in terms of fossil fuel intensity

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With continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices remain elevated

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Risk of elevated inflation continued to pose concerns for global markets. Germany’s inflation print rose to its 30-year high

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China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 and 48.4 respectively in Mar’22 led by disruption in economic activities due to covid-19 outbreak

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Led by hopes of possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global equity indices ended higher

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Oil prices slumped lower by 6.8% to US$ 113/bbl

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China’s industrial profits rose by 5% for the Jan-Feb’21 period (4.2% in Dec’21)

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US’ initial jobless claims fell to 187k (est.: 212k) as of week ending 19 Mar 2022, from 216 in the previous week

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US President Joe Biden is meeting European and NATO leaders to announce fresh sanctions on Russia

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US Fed raised policy rate for the first time since CY18 by 25bps

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The Ukraine war tended to cast a shadow on the forex market and the tendency was for currencies to depreciate against the dollar

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Global markets monitored progress between Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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Amongst emerging countries, India has remained a bright spot for foreign investors

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India’s trade deficit in Feb’22 widened to 3-month high of US$ 20.9bn from US$ 17.4bn in Jan’22

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Global markets monitored geopolitical developments around Russia and Ukraine

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A quick indicator of solvency of companies is the interest cover

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CPI inflation rose to 6.1% against market consensus of 6%

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Global markets tracked the progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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IIP growth rose to 1.3% in Jan’22 from 0.7% in Dec’21 led by manufacturing (1.1% from 0.2% in Dec’21) and mining output (2.8% from 2.6% in Dec’21)

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Against the background of the recently concluded State Elections where free power was an important issue, we analyse the current situation of DISCOMs in states

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Global markets reacted to surging US inflation and ECB comments on winding down its assets purchase programme sooner than expected

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Equity markets in advanced countries took a breather as commodity prices eased from near record-highs

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Oil prices surged further (highest since the 2008 Financial crisis), as US announced a ban on oil imports from Russia

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Russia-Ukraine war has grappled markets worldwide

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Oil prices continued to edge upwards amidst reports that US is likely to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector

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Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global markets and outweighed stronger than expected US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair

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Worsening Russia and Ukraine situation continued to impact global markets

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The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has impacted commodity prices to a considerable extent

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Global markets were rattled by escalating geopolitical tensions

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Last month saw multiple economic and political developments at domestic and global levels

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Risks to the INR outlook have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting rise in oil prices

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Global markets remained on edge as hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued

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India’s GDP growth is estimated at 8.9% in FY22 (-6.6% in FY21)

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Global equity and currencies closed higher supported by better macro print in the US (consumer spending, durable goods orders) and Euro Area (economic confidence index)

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Tension between Russia and Ukraine was simmering in the last few months

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Global markets fell as Russia moved troops into Ukrainian borders and launched an attack

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Global markets are eyeing deepening tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Ukraine has announced a 30-day state of emergency in the country

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Global markets continue to monitor reaction to Russia’s recognition of 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine and moving its troops in those areas

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Global markets remain jittery, driven by mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine

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Global markets remain wary of geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine and are closing tracking global efforts to diffuse the tensions

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Global markets continued to monitor geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine

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Global markets tracked developments over the Russia-Ukraine tensions and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

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Global markets continued to monitor positive development surrounding Russia and Ukraine

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India’s trade deficit in FYTD22 has surged to US$ 154.8bn from US$ 73.6bn in FYTD21

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With 5 states (13.2% of India’s GDP) entering their Assembly elections, it is interesting to see how they stack up in relative terms on economic and social indicators

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Globally, markets remain on edge due to heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia

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CPI inflation rose to 6% in Jan’22 from 5.7% in Dec’21, led by food inflation (5.4% versus 4%)

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Globally central banks are giving different views

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IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Dec’21 from 1.3% in Nov’21 led by mining (2.6% from 4.9% in Nov’21) and manufacturing output (declined by -0.1% from an increase of 0.8%)

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US CPI rose by 7.5% (highest since 1982) in Jan’22 compared with 7% in Dec’21 and estimated 7.3% increase

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RBI has kept all policy rates unchanged

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US CPI data due later in the week remains a key watchable for the markets

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Global markets await US CPI print, due this Thursday, and are also tracking the progress of US-Iran talking to assess the impact on oil supply and prices

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India’s recovery has gained momentum with a steady moderation in Covid-19 cases recently

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Global markets are closely tracking US-Iran talks and await US CPI print due this week for Fed policy guidance

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Elevated crude oil and commodity prices continue to add to India’s inflation concerns

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Global markets closely tracked the policy rate decisions by central banks

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In the current scenario, where interest rates are rising (20bps increase in 10Y Gsec yield in Feb’22, 15bps increase in AAA rated corporate yield and 18bps increase in AA+ paper of 10Y tenor), the primary challenge is funding

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Global markets continued to rally

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Global markets monitored manufacturing PMI prints and awaited BoE and ECB’s policy meet

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Budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with major thrust given to government capex

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Union budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with focus on boosting government capex and reviving private sector spending

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Global markets shifted their focus towards Central Bank meetings scheduled later this week

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This year’s Economic Survey has painted a positive picture of growth, supported by central Government’s “Barbell strategy and Agile response”

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Global markets continued to monitor hawkish comments by Fed

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Except Dow (flat) and FTSE (higher), other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hawkish commentary by Fed

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INR has depreciated sharply today in the aftermath of Fed policy

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US 10Y yield shot up by 9bps as Fed Chair remarked that “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate” signalling rate hike cycle to begin in Mar’22

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Global markets were volatile as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to build

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Budget for FY23 will see the government walking the tight rope in terms of boosting growth and achieving fiscal consolidation

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Global equity and bond indices ended lower, as investors remained cautious awaiting FOMC comments

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Despite a higher than projected nominal GDP growth and pick up in revenues, we except fiscal deficit in FY22 to come at 7%

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Global markets were volatile as investors await comments from US Federal Reserve

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As per news reports, FM is likely to consider a waiver of capital gain tax in the upcoming Union Budget of India

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E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022

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SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21

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WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation

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In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations

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Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA

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CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%

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World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week

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India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021

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India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%

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Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets

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With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports

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WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21

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As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States

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CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)

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Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08

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According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production

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Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21

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India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn

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In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)

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Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021

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As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21

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With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed

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India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions

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As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports

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India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22

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Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21

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In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021

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Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum

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In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25

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Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high

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India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21

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August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway

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In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.

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RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21

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US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence

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India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables

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India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect

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According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)

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India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis

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India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability

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According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown

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US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)

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RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year

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MPC maintained status quo on rates

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Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law

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India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace

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Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports

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India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21

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Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower

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Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21

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Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)

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Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill

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IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier

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Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%

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Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week

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ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19

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Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021

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India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021

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WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)

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S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021

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India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21

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India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021

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India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20

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India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21

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Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports

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While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs

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RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22

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India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21

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India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit

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Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021

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Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn

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FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs

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Global economic activity remained buoyant

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As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21

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India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21

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FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis

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As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week

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US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021

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MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown

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Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils

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India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year

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India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon

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RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space

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CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation

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WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index

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Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021

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Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)

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According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21

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As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.

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World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).

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Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.

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US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.

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India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).

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MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.

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India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.

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India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.

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India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.

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India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.

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US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).

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FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.

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Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.

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RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

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In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.

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RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.

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RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.

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With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.

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WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.

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India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.

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As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.

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India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.

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As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.

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India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.

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Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.

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India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.

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India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.

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RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.

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Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.

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As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).

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A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.

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As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.

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With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.

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RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.

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Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.

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Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.

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MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.

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As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.

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With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.

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Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.

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WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.

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India’s industrial output fell by 3.6% in Feb’21 from 0.9% in Jan’21 led by dip in mining and manufacturing.

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Rising global Covid-19 infections pose a risk to global recovery.

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As per news reports, combined capex of 37 large CPSEs was at Rs 4.6tn in FY21, which is 92% of the budgeted target and also 4.3% higher than FY20.

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Rising Covid-19 infections in India pose a risk to our growth estimate of 11.5% in FY22.

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IMF in its recent statement said that India's debt to GDP ratio shot upto 90% in CY20 against 74% in CY19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 37.3bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 2 Apr 2021.

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MPC kept repo rate on hold but removed time specific stance guidance in favour of one contingent on reviving growth.

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IMF has upgraded India’s growth forecast to 12.5% in FY22 from 11.5% projected earlier.

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India’s manufacturing PMI fell to a 7-month low of 55.4 in Mar’21 from 57.5 in Feb’21.

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Global yields rose with manufacturing PMIs showing signs of recovery.

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As per CMIE data, new project announcements rose to Rs 1.2tn in Q4FY21 from Rs 1.1tn in Q3FY21.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 14.1bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 led by sharp rebound in gold (+584%) and non-oil-non-gold (+46%) imports.

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India’s eight core output contracted to a 6-month low of 4.6% in Feb’21 from an increase of 0.9% in Jan’21.

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Centre’s borrowing in H1FY22 is pegged at Rs 7.2tn compared with Rs 7.4tn in H1FY21.

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India’s current account went back into deficit of US$ 1.7bn (-0.2% of GDP) from surplus of US$ 15.1bn (2.4% of GDP) in Q2.

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Centre has confirmed that Rs 300bn have been transferred to states on 27 Mar 2021 as GST compensation, bringing the total amount transferred to Rs 700bn for FY21 so far.

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Yield differential between US and other economies widened led by US vaccination drive and stimulus.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) inched down to 6.48% as on 29 Mar 2021 against 6.53% in the previous week.

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As per news reports, NHAI is planning to raise Rs 1tn through monetisation of national highways in the next 5-years.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 11.6bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 19 Mar 2021.

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According to news reports, central government has collected ~Rs 304bn as dividend receipts from CPSEs in FYTD21 (till 22 Mar 2021), slightly lower than the revised target of Rs 347bn.

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India’s highway construction is gaining pace as it touched a record high of 34km/day construction in FY21 (till 22 Mar 2021).

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US 10Y yield rose by 10bps to a 14-month high even as Fed Chair tried to calm the markets with forward guidance of accommodative policy.

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EPFO’s data indicates that 0.82mn new subscribers were added in Jan’21, broadly steady compared with 0.85mn added in Dec’20.

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UNCTAD has revised India’s growth forecast for CY21 upwards to 5% from 3.9% earlier.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) in India rose slightly to 6.53% as on 17 Mar 2021 from 6.52% in the previous week.

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India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 17.3% (YoY) between 1-14 Mar 2021 (US$ 14.2bn), after rising by 0.7% in Feb’21.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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WPI accelerated to a 27-month high of 4.1% in Feb’21 led by higher food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Global equities continued to move higher on the back of US stimulus, global vaccination drive and economic recovery.

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India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 580.3bn in the week ended 5 Mar 2021.

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India’s industrial output fell by 1.6% in Jan’21 (+1.6% in Dec’20) led by drop in capital goods and consumer non-durables.

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India’s fuel consumption fell for the 2nd straight month in Feb’21 to its lowest since Sep’20 by 4.6% (MoM basis) to 17.2mn tonnes.

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OECD has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 higher to 12.6% from 7.9% estimated earlier and a contraction of 7.4% in FY21.

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As per news reports, government has received over 0.13mn declarations under Vivad se Vishwas scheme involving a disputed tax of Rs 983bn.

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A government driven capex cycle is holding ground with general government capex spending up by 123.6% in Jan’21 (50.4% in Dec’20).

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US economy is showing a strong rebound with payrolls and manufacturing activity surprising positively thus driving US 10Y higher.

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 51.5bn between Apr-Dec’20, compared with US$ 36.8bn in the same period last year.

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As per news reports, government is focussing on farmers producer organisations (FPOs) to support small and marginal farmers.

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India’s services PMI jumped sharply in Feb’21 to 55.3 from 52.8 in Jan’21.

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Indian government recently concluded auction of telecom spectrum garnering Rs 778bn in revenue.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.9bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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Total GST collections remained above Rs 1tn mark for the 5th consecutive month in Jan’21, although it eased marginally from Rs 1.2tn (8.1%) in Dec’20 to Rs 1.1tn (7.4%) in Jan’21.

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Global reflation trade drove US 10Y to a 1-year high.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand moderated to 5.8% in Jan’21 against 5.9% in Dec’20.

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After two consecutive quarters of decline, GDP and GVA growth returned to the positive territory at 0.4% and 1% respectively in Q3FY21.

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In India, cooking gas LPG prices rose for the third time in Feb’21.

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As per second advance estimates, India’s foodgrain output is expected to rise by 2.5% to 303mn tonne in CY21 (crop year) and will even surpass its target level (301mn tonne).

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As per news reports, government is planning to finalise an asset monetisation pipeline for the next 3 years.

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The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated the MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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Global yields rose sharply led by US and UK, as reflation bets gained momentum amidst an improvement in economic activity.

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India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 250mn in the week ended 12 Feb 2021 to US$ 583.7bn.

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In an effort to protect the interest of investors and depositors, RBI has issued several directions for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs).

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As per news reports, the additional cess of Rs 13-16/lt imposed on auto fuels from Mar’20 onwards is likely to earn the exchequer around Rs 1.9tn (over FY20) compared with Rs 1.2tn estimated in FY21RE.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20.

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WPI accelerated to 2% in Jan’21 from 1.2% in Dec’20 led by manufactured inflation at 5.1% (4.2% in Dec’20).

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Global yields (except India) moved higher with steady decline in Covid-19 cases and economic upturn.

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As per news reports, government may soon announce more schemes focussing on agriculture and its infrastructure development.

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India’s industrial output improved to 1% in Dec’20 (-2.1% in Nov’20) led by acceleration in manufacturing and electricity output.

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Recovery in auto industry hit a snag, as retail sales contracted by 10% in Jan'21 from an increase of 11% in Dec'20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 16.2bn and stood at Rs 28.2tn for the week ending 05 Feb 2021.

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As per IEA report, India will overtake EU as the world’s third largest energy consumer by CY30.

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India’s Finance ministry has confirmed that dues for GST compensation to states for Apr-Nov’20 period stands at Rs 2.06tn.

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India’s FM presented a historic Budget with a vision to spend and monetise assets to lead India’s economic recovery.

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Global equity markets rose on the back of strong corporate results and manufacturing activity.

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As per news reports, Centre is likely to incentivise states to pursue disinvestment in state government PSUs.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and into next financial year.

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Domestic petrol and diesel prices continued to increase in Feb’21.

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India’s services activity slightly moderated as PMI print was tad lower at 52.3 in Jan’21 versus 52.8 in Dec’20.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil exports.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil-exports.

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The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% in FY20.

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The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% of GDP in FY20.

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Global equity markets fell on the back of concerns over vaccine rollout.

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India’s total GST collections rose to Rs 1.20tn for the month of Dec’20 versus Rs 1.15tn in Nov’20.

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CSO has revised FY20 growth to 4% from 4.2%.

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Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 11% in FY22 after contracting by 7.7% in FY21, on the back of a low base, PLI scheme, infra investments and roll-out of vaccine drive.

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According to news reports, in the budget for FY22, capex spending target for 36 major CPSEs may get increased by 50-60% to Rs 7.5-8tn from Rs 4.95tn in FY21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 7.7bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 22 Jan 2021.

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IMF has projected India’s growth to rebound to 11.5% in FY22 from a decline of 8% in FY21, to be the fastest growing country in the world.

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Hopes of US$ 1.9tn fiscal stimulus in the US under the new President lifted global equities and currencies higher.

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India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 584.2bn in the week ended 15 Jan 2021 from a record high of US$ 586.1bn.

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RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in the spot market in Nov’20 compared with net purchase of US$ 15.6bn in Oct’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 125bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 15 Jan 2021.

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A counter cyclical fiscal response to contraction in GDP growth implies India’s fiscal deficit will rise to 7.2% of GDP in FY21.

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News reports suggest that the Centre may announce complete shift to DBT for providing fertiliser subsidy to farmers in FY22 Budget.

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As per news reports, government is considering hiking custom duties by 5%-10% on about 50 items such as smartphones, electronic components, refrigerators and other electronic appliances.

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Global yields fell, equity markets were lower and DXY index rose as world economy battles another wave of Covid-19.

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India’s exports have risen by 10.9% (YoY) in the first two weeks of Jan’21, compared with 0.1% increase in Dec’20.

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India's passenger vehicles sales noticed a sharp uptick as it registered a growth of 13.6% in Dec'20 versus 4.6% in Nov'20.

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WPI eased to a 4-month low of 1.2% in Dec’20 from 1.5% in Nov’20 led by moderation in food inflation to 0.9% in Dec’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 27bn and stood at Rs 27.9tn for the week ending 8 Jan 2021.

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Recovery in India’s industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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India’s recovery in industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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India’s economic recovery continues to gain momentum.

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RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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US 10Y yield inched up by 20bps in the week after Democratic party regained control of the Senate.

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RBI has again announced variable rate reverse repo auction on 15 Jan 2021 worth Rs 2tn to restore normal liquidity operation.

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India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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India’s services PMI eased to 52.3 in Dec’20 (53.7 in Nov’20) with growth in new business and output softening.

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World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 9.6% in FY21 before recovering to 5.4% in FY22 and 5.2% in FY23.

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India’s manufacturing activity continued to remain robust as visible in the PMI reading. It rose to 56.4 in Dec’20 compared with 56.3 in Nov’20.

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Global equity indices ended CY20 on a high driven by news of Covid-19 vaccine, US stimulus deal and Brexit trade deal. DXY index fell to a 32-month low on concern over rising twin deficits.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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India’s eight core index contracted by 2.6% in Nov’20 (3-month low) from 0.9% in Oct’20.

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India’s current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn in Q2FY21 (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1 (3.8% of GDP).

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With revival in economic activity in Q2FY21, current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1.

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RBI’s report on Trend and Progress of Banking stated that GNPA ratio of SCBs has declined to 7.5% as of Sep’20 from 8.2% as of Mar’20.

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RBI’s recent working paper has pointed out that current 4% inflation target is appropriate in the medium-term.

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The year ended with a Brexit deal and US President signing a US$ 900bn stimulus.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 2.6bn to a record high of US$ 581.1bn in the week ended 18 Dec 2020.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 329bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 18 Dec 2020.

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India's crude oil production slipped to 2.49mn tonne in Nov'20 (4.9% drop) compared with 2.61mn tonne in Nov'19.

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EPFO’s payroll data for Oct’20 showed that net additions eased to 0.72mn from 1.11mn in Sep’20.

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2020 was one of the worst years for global economy but one of the best years for NASDAQ (5th highest since inception).

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Global yields and equities rose on the back of US stimulus deal, launch of vaccine and US FOMC’s upward revision to growth and inflation.

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Centre has allowed 5 states to borrow additional Rs 167bn from the market as they have implemented the Ease of Doing Business reforms.

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MPC members stated that growth has surprised positively.

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Centre’s net direct tax collections improved in Q3FY21 as it fell by only 13% till 16 Dec 2020 versus 25% drop seen between Apr-Sep’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 116bn and stood at Rs 27.8tn for the week ending 11 Dec 2020.

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Final print for India’s trade data shows that exports fell by 8.7% in Nov’20 compared with 9.1% drop estimated in preliminary estimates and 5.1% decline in Oct’20.

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India’s CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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WPI inched up to a 9-month high of 1.6% in Nov’20 from 1.5% in Oct’20 led by manufactured inflation which increased to 3% in Nov’20 (2.1% in Oct’20).

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10Y yield in UK and US declined due to uncertainty over Brexit and US stimulus.

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As per AMFI data, net inflow under mutual funds moderated to Rs 272bn in Nov’20 from Rs 986bn in Oct’20.

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India’s industrial output surprised positively in Oct’20 at 3.6% from an increase of 0.5% in Sep’20.

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India’s Covid-19 curve is showing signs of tapering off with 7-day average additions of 50k compared with a 30-day and 90-day average of 56k and 65k respectively.

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Centre has recently released the 6th instalment of GST compensation cess of Rs 60bn thus taking the total transfer to states to Rs 360bn.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 26.5bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 4 Dec 2020.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moved up to 7.4% as on 8 Dec 2020 compared to 6.6% in the previous week.

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Domestic LPG price (non-subsidised) has risen by Rs 50 to Rs 644/cylinder in Dec’20.

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US 10Y yield increased by 13bps on the back of hope of US fiscal stimulus.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand was stable at 5.8% for the fortnight ending 20 Nov 2020.

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While revising GDP growth to (-) 7.5% from (-) 9.5% earlier, MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and next financial year to support growth.

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Services activity in India continued to expand as PMI reading was at 53.7 in Nov’20 from 54.1 in Oct’20.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 10bn in Nov’20 from US$ 8.7bn in Oct’20 led by moderation in exports and stable non-oil-non-gold imports.

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India’s exports fell further in Nov’20 by 9.1% versus 5.1% drop in Oct’20. Oil exports fell much sharply by 63.8% (52% decline in Oct’20).

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India’s manufacturing PMI slipped to a 3-month low of 56.3 in Nov’20 from 58.9 in Oct’20.

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US$ weakened by 0.7% in the week with positive development on vaccine.

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The hike in petrol and diesel prices continued, with petrol prices up by Rs 1.28/lt and diesel prices by Rs 1.96/lt since 19 Nov 2020.

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From a decline of 23.9% in Q1, India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% in Q2FY21.

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RBI governor in his recent address highlighted that the sustainability of demand post festive season is to be carefully watched, as downside risks to growth still persist.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) fell by Rs 69bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 20 Nov 2020.

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High-frequency data for India shows that post festival demand, there is marginal easing in trading activity observed.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moderated to 6.4% as on 23 Nov 2020 against 6.7% in the previous week.

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Rising global Covid-19 cases (4.2mn) drove global 10Y yields lower.

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RBI’s data showed that credit demand picked up to 5.7% for the fortnight ending 6 Nov 2020 compared with 5.1% in Oct’20.

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High frequency indicators show an underlying revival in economic activity led by private sector.

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Domestic trade activity in India continues to rise steadily as visible in rail freight movement which rose by 13.6% during 1-10 Nov 2020.

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As per news reports, government has received Rs 724.8bn from 45,855 cases under the tax dispute resolution scheme ‘Vivad se Vishwas’.

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RBI’s data showed that state borrowings in FYTD21 are up by 49% compared with last year and stood at Rs 4.48tn as of 17 Nov 2020.

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Global recovery strengthened further as seen in China’s industrial production and Japan’s Q3 GDP.

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As per news reports, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has signed an agreement with World Bank for providing advisory services on asset monetization.

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WPI rose to 1.5% in Oct’20 (1.3% in Sep’20) led by core which increased to 1.7% in Oct’20 from 1% in Sep’20.

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Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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Industrial production rebounded sharply to 0.2% in Sep’20 from a decline of 7.4% in Aug’20 with improvement across sectors.

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In an effort to boost manufacturing, government has approved Production Linked Incentives (PLI) for 10 sectors including white goods, auto and battery manufacturing.

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Noting a robust turnaround, India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 22.5% on a YoY basis in the period 1-7 Nov 2020 following a decline of 5.4% in Oct’20.

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As per news reports, cargo traffic in India’s 12 major ports fell for the 7th straight month by 1.2% in Oct'20 from a decline of 1.9% in Sep'20.

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India’s economic recovery gained steam as seen in improvement in GST collections, electicity demand, vehicle sales, freight movement and PMIs.

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Global equity markets surged as results of US Presidential elections indicated a change in guard.

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RBI’s fortnightly statistics showed that credit demand edged down to 5.1% as of 23 Oct 2020 from 5.7% in the previous fortnight.

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RBI announced the new Co-Lending Model (CML) to improve credit flow to the underserved section of the economy at an affordable cost.

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India’s services PMI expanded for the first time in over eight months to 54.1 in Oct’20 from 49.8 in Sep’20.

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Forward guidance by global central banks implies low yields and negative real global yields in the medium-term.

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India’s exports fell by 5.4% in Oct’20 from an increase of 6% in Sep’20 as per preliminary data.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to a 7-month high of US$ 8.8bn in Oct’20 from US$ 2.7bn in Sep’20 led by higher gold and non-oil-non-gold imports.

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India’s manufacturing PMI accelerated for the 3rd straight month to a 13-year high of 58.9 in Oct’20 from 56.8 in Sep’20.

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Global equity markets and yields fell on the back of rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and US.

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Total GST collections for Sep’20 rose by 10.2% on YoY basis to Rs 1tn from Rs 955bn in Aug’20 (3.9% increase).

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 81bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 23 Oct 2020.

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RBI’s study on state budgets indicates that while states had projected fiscal deficit for FY21 at 2.8% (of GSDP), it is expected at 4.6% instead.

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As per news reports, Government of India is expected to announce another round of fiscal stimulus around the festive season.

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Despite rising Covid-19 cases in Europe, US and UK yields inched up on the back of impending stimulus in US and Brexit deal.

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In order to meet the GST compensation cess gap, GoI has transferred Rs 60bn to 16 states under the 1st tranche of Rs 1.1tn payment to be made.

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MPC members favoured forward guidance on accommodative conditions to anchor market expectations of liquidity.

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According to CMIE data, rural unemployment rose to 7.93% in the week ending 4 Oct 2020, compared with only 4.73% in the previous week.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 47bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 16 Oct 2020.

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According to EPFO’s data, it added 0.67mn new subscribers to its subscriber base in Aug’20 compared with 0.65mn added in Jul’20.

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As part of Atma Nirbhar Bharat package, GoI has proposed to cover 25mn farmers under the Kisan Credit Card scheme with a credit boost of Rs 2tn through the saturation drive.

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Fresh restrictions in Europe to curb COVID-19, uncertainty around US fiscal stimulus, drop in Germany’s ZEW sentiment index and higher US jobless claims led to risk-off driving global yields and equities lower and US$ higher.

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India’s rail freight data shows continued improvement in domestic trade activity in Oct’20 so far.

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Centre has increased its borrowing program for FY21 as it has decided to borrow Rs 1.1tn on behalf of states to meet the GST compensation cess shortfall.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 21bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 9 Oct 2020.

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WPI rose to 1.3% in Sep’20 from 0.2% in Aug’20 led by increase in food (6.9% in Sep’20 from 4.1% in Aug’20) and manufactured inflation (1.6% in Sep’20 from 1.3% Aug’20).

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IMF expects India’s GDP to contract by 10.3% compared with a 4.5% dip estimated earlier.

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Government of India has announced a slew of measures like LTC cash voucher, restoring the festival advance scheme for central and state government employees in order to boost demand in the economy.

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India’s industrial recovery continued with a decline of 8% in Aug’20 as against 10.8%.

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Global yields and equities went up with hopes of fresh US fiscal stimulus gaining ground.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and maintain the accommodative stance into the current and next financial year.

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A silver lining seems to be emerging with positive growth visible in exports, auto and electricity output, rural wages, GST collections and rail freight.

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MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged.

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World Bank has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY21, estimating a contraction of 9.6% versus 4.5% decline estimated in Jun’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 29bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 2 Oct 2020.

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India’s services PMI improved substantially to 49.8 in Sep’20 from 41.8 in Aug’20.

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Government of India has appointed 3 external members to the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI.

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Global manufacturing PMIs and US consumer confidence supported higher global yields.

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Total GST collections for Aug’20 jumped by 3.9% on YoY basis to Rs 955bn from Rs 864bn in Jul’20 (12% decline).

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India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 2.9bn in Sep’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 as exports rose by 5.3%, first time in 6-months.

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India’s eight core output contracted for the 6th straight month to 8.5% in Aug’20 from 8% in Jul’20.

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Centre has maintained its borrowing plan of Rs 12tn implying gross and net borrowing of Rs 4.25tn and Rs 3.37tn in H2.

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After reporting a current account surplus of US$ 0.6bn in Q4, India reported a surplus of US$ 19.8bn (3.9% of GDP) in Q1FY21 as imports fell more sharply than exports.

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In an effort to provide liquidity to States, RBI has decided to continue with the increased WMA limit (of 60%) till Mar’21 from Sep’20 earlier.

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In an effort to boost SCBs liquidity, RBI has extended the MSF relaxation till 31 Mar 2021 from 30 Sep 2020 earlier.

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Global equities fell and DXY regained strength with European governments imposing fresh restrictions to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

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S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade at BBB- with stable outlook.

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As announced under the Atama Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, centre has increased the borrowing limits of 5 states (A.P, Telangana, Karnataka, Goa and Tripura) by 0.5% of their GSDP as they have implemented the ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ card scheme.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 58bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 18 Sep 2020.

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According to the first advance estimates, total food grain production in the country during the kharif season is estimated at 144.5mn ton, on the back of normal monsoon.

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Government has hiked the MSP for Rabi crops for the marketing season (2021-2022) in line with the recommendations of Swaminathan Commission.

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Major central banks kept the policy rates on hold with US Fed likely to keep ultra-low rates till 2023.

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India’s forex reserves fell by US$ 353mn in the week ended 11 Sep 2020 to US$ 541.7bn.

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Lok Sabha passed the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) and Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill.

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According to news reports, centre’s direct tax collections are down by ~22.4% in H1FY21 so far (15 Sep 2020) and stand at Rs 2.54tn compared with Rs 3.27tn in the same period last year.

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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ADB expects India’s GDP to contract by 9% in FY21 versus 4% decline estimated earlier.

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CPI eased to 6.7% in Aug’20 driven by lower food inflation at 9.1%.

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WPI rose to 0.2% in Aug’20 after declining for 4 straight months (0.6% in Jul’20) led by increase in manufactured inflation.

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Global recovery gained steam led by higher exports by China and Taiwan.

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RBI purchased a record US$ 16bn in Jul20 (net) in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 10.4% in Jul’20 as against a decline of 15.8% in Jun’20.

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Government has constituted a three-member expert committee for assessment of relief to bank borrowers.

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As per news reports, government has released Rs 103bn to developers, for expediting infrastructure projects amidst COVID-19.

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As per news reports, government is planning to sell about 15-20% of its stake in IRCTC in FY21 through OFS route in tranches.

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India’s manufacturing PMI moved into expansion zone, in-line with other large economies.

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RBI has released the KV Kamath Committee report on resolution framework for COVID-19 related stress.

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Chinese yields rose as domestic economic activity continues to show improvement.

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Andhra Pradesh retained the top position in the state wise ease of doing business rankings, followed by UP and Telengana.

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India’s services PMI improved in Aug’20 to 41.8 from 34.2 in Jul’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 28 Aug 2020.

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Total GST collections eased to Rs 864bn from Rs 874bn in Jun’20, registering a 12% YoY decline.

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Centre’s fiscal deficit continues to remain elevated as revenue receipts are in free fall while spending is maintained.

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India’s GDP growth in Q1FY21 contracted by 23.9%.

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Global 10Y yields went up as macro data showed further improvement in economic activity: China’s industrial profits, US durable goods and new home sales.

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As per RBI data, credit demand edged down to 5.5% for the fortnight ending 14 Aug 2020 against 5.7% in Jul’20.

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In the GST council meet the FM informed the states that centre will not able to meet the full demand of GST compensation in FY21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 33.8bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 21 Aug 2020.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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According to Ministry of Finance, post the implementation of GST, tax compliance has improved and average tax rate has been reduced for the system.

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Global yields (ex-India and China) fell after macro data showed global recovery flattening, in particular in Eurozone.

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India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 2.9bn in the week ended 14 Aug 2020 to US$ 535.3bn.

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MPC members noted future growth trajectory remains uncertain.

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While India’s growth seems to have bottomed out in Q1FY21, growth trajectory still remains uncertain.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 56bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 14 Aug 2020.

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As per news reports, government has received proposals worth Rs 12tn for the next five years under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

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In an effort to provide greater funding to NBFCs, government has decided to expand the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0 by another three months till 19 Nov’20.

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Worst seems to be over for global economy with Euro Area, Singapore and UK reporting sharp contraction for Q2CY20.

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RBI approved a transfer of Rs 571.3bn for the accounting year 2019-20 to the government, while maintaining the contingency risk buffer at 5.5%.

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India’s trade balance slipped into deficit of US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 from a surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20.

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WPI contracted by 0.6% in Jul’20 from 1.8% in Jun’20 led by 4.3% increase in food and 0.5% increase in manufactured inflation.

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RBI purchased net US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20 in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 4.4bn in May’20.

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CPI inflation accelerated to 6.9% in Jul’20 (6.2% in Jun’20) led by higher food and core inflation.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 136.2bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ended 7 Aug 2020.

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India’s auto sales showed improvement as the pace of contraction eased significantly in Jul’20 to 18.6% from 43% in Jun’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 16.6% in Jun’20 as against a decline of 33.9% in May’20.

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While global economy is showing signs of expansion with manufacturing and services PMIs above 50, India’s PMIs have decelerated owing to local lockdowns in Jul’20.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate for the week ending 9 Aug 2020 rose considerably to 8.7% from 7.2% in the previous week.

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Global yields rose with macro data surprising positively.

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Government of India recently launched the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund worth Rs 1tn to provide support to FPOs, PACs and farmers so as to build community farming assets and post-harvest infrastructure.

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RBI voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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MPC unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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India’s services activity still remained muted with PMI print at 34.2 in Jul’20 against 33.7 in Jun’20; remaining far below the 50-mark.

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As per FCI, a total of 75.9mn MT of foodgrain stock is available; of this 9.5mn MT is required each month under NFSA, PMGKAY and other schemes.

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India’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the 4th straight month to 46 in Jul’20 from 47.2 in Jun’20.

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US yields and US$ fell in the week after a steep contraction in US GDP, falling consumer confidence and Fed’s prediction of weak economic recovery.

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GST collections for Jun’20 was recorded at Rs 874bn, down from Rs 909bn for May’20.

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In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce the dependency on inbound shipments of non-essential items in India, government has imposed restrictions on imports of colour televisions.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 48bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 24 Jul 2020.

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According to news reports, railway freight reported its first YoY increase (0.3%) in FY21 on 27 Jul 2020.

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As per news reports, cabinet has given approval for disinvestment in 22-23 PSUs to meet FY21 target of Rs 2.1tn.

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Global economy maintained growth momentum as seen in US home sales and higher flash PMIs.

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RBI’s FSR indicated that financial conditions of SCBs have worsened with respect to soundness, liquidity and efficiency parameters in Mar’20 against Sep’19.

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In yet another sign of revival, India’s crude oil processing rose by 10.9% in Jun’20 to 4.29mbpd against 3.87mbpd in May’20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 20bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 17 Jul 2020.

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According to news reports, number of registered companies in the country stands at 2mn as of 30 Jun 2020.

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Pace of contraction in India’s port cargo volumes reduced in Jun’20 to 14.5% from 23.3% in May’20.

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China continues to lead global recovery with GDP growth rebounding to 3.2% in Q2CY20 from a decline of 6.8% in Q1.

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RBI’s fortnightly data indicates credit growth eased further to 6.1 % as of 3 Jul 2020 from 6.2% in the previous fortnight and 12% in the same period last year.

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As per news reports, banks have sanctioned Rs 1.23tn of the Rs 3tn Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for MSMEs.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 124.5bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 10 Jul 2020.

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India registered a trade surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20, a first in 18-years versus a deficit of US$ 3.1bn in May’20 as exports recovered.

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India’s auto sales fell by 43% in Jun’20 versus a decline of 84.8% in May’20.

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WPI contracted by 1.8% in Jun’20 from 3.2% in May’20 led by 13.6% decline in fuel and power index in Jun’20 compared with 19.8% in May’20.

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NSO released India’s CPI data for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20.

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NSO released CPI inflation for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20 data.

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Global equity markets continued upward momentum led by China as economic activity rebounds.

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India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 versus a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 as against a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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As per news reports, central government is planning a stake sale in Coal India and IDBI bank to raise nearly Rs 200bn in disinvestment proceeds.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 49.5bn and stood at Rs 26.6tn for the week ending 3 Jul 2020.

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As per news reports, CPSEs have been tasked by the FM to ensure that 50% of their budgeted capital outlay (Rs 1.66tn) is spent by Q2FY21.

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As per news reports, central government has extended the 15% spending limit for various departments to Q2FY21 as well.

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India’s economy improved further in Jun’20 as visible in higher filing of GST e-way bills, digital payments, tractor sales and manufacturing PMIs.

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Early signs of global recovery are visible with improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs and strong US jobs report.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 1.3bn in the week ended 26 Jun 2020 compared with a decline of US$ 2.1bn last week.

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As per news reports, under government’s Atmanirbhar package, banks have sanctioned Rs 629bn to over 7mn Kisan Credit Card (KCC) holders as on Jun’20.

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Latest GST collections and manufacturing PMI indicate that economy is on the path of recovery in May/Jun’20.

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Central government tax revenues continue to remain weak as direct tax collections fell by 14.6% in FYTD21 (Apr-May) versus 12.1% rise in the same period last year.

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After a span of 13 years, India reported a current account surplus.

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In view of the current liquidity scenario, RBI has again decided to conduct simultaneous purchase of longer dated securities and sell shorter duration ones, of Rs 100bn each.

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Despite global economy gaining positive momentum in the form of improvement in consumer confidence and US home sales, equity markets and yields fell as markets were worried about resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

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Indian yields have fallen in-line with global yields even as general government issuances are estimated to increase to ~9.5% of GDP.

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In an effort to provide a helping hand to non-MSMEs, government is considering a one-time loan restructuring facility especially for those businesses which have been severely hit by the pandemic.

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As per news reports, led by steep hike in excise duty on petrol and diesel and pick-up in demand, centre’s excise collections have risen to ~Rs 400bn in FYTD21 (Apr-May).

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As per World Bank data, India has retained its position as the third largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

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Moody’s has cut India’s growth projection in FY21 and expects GDP to contract by 3.1% against 0.2% estimated earlier.

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Global short-end yields (apart from Germany) were lower as IMF cautioned of sharper downturn and COVID-19 cases increased.

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Government has launched Garib Kalyan Rojgaar Abhiyaan to generate employment for migrant workers.

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Outlook on India’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been revised to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ by Fitch ratings, while maintaining rating at ‘BBB-’.

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RBI as the regulator of HFC’s has proposed certain changes such as providing a formal definition of housing finance (not available under NHB).

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According to news reports, direct tax collections in Apr-Jun’20 have fallen by 32.8% so far to Rs 927bn versus Rs 1.38tn last year.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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Headline WPI fell by 3.2% in May’20 led by 19.8% drop in fuel inflation.

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Global yields closed lower after US FOMC painted a dismal picture of recovery for the US economy in CY20.

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 8.2bn to a record-high at US$ 501.7bn in the week ended 5 Jun 2020 compared with an increase of US$ 3.4bn last week.

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India’s industrial production contracted by 55.5% in Apr’20 on the back of a nationwide lockdown led by 95.7% and 92% reduction in consumer durables and capital goods respectively.

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RBI sold net US$ 1.1bn in the spot market in Apr’20 compared with US$ 4.1bn sales in Mar’20.

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OECD in its latest economic outlook has projected India’s GDP to contract sharply by 3.7% in FY21.

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According to news reports, GST collections have steadily declined in Mar and Apr’20, showing the impact of nationwide lockdown.

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World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 3.2% in FY21 as lockdown measures to curtail COVID-19 derail economic activity.

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India’s economy is showing signs of recovery with E-way bills and electricity demand showing signs of improvement from Apr’20 levels.

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Global economic activity showed signs of improvement with PMIs gaining MoM traction led by China and US.

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RBI has announced establishment of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF).

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MPC members reduced policy rate by 40bps as the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic economy is far more severe than initially anticipated.

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Central government has released Rs 364bn as GST compensation for states for Dec’19-Feb’20.

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India’s services activity still contracted as visible in the PMI print.

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In an effort to support Make in India initiative, India has launched US$ 6.65bn plan to boost electronic manufacturing.

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Moody’s downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with negative outlook on the back of rising fiscal deficits, growth contraction and higher debt levels (30% more than Baa median).

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Moody’s has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to its lowest investment grade for the first time in 22 years.

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Led by nationwide lockdown to curtail the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, India’s infrastructure index contracted to a record low of 38.1% in Apr’20 from a decline of 9% in Mar’20.

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Global macro data showed some improvement with US home sales and EU consumer confidence surprising positively.

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India’s FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP is higher than FY20RE of 3.8%.

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India’s FY20 growth slipped to 4.2% from 6.1% due to lower consumption and investment demand.

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FDI inflows into India rose by 18% to US$ 73.5bn in FY20 versus US$ 62bn in FY19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 221bn and stood at Rs 26.1tn for the week ending 22 May 2020.

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CBIC has announced that between 8 Apr-24 May 2020, Rs 110.5bn worth GST refunds have been processed.

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Global economy is showing signs of pick-up with flash PMIs showing MoM improvement.

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According to news reports, direct tax collections in FYTD21 (till 23 May) eased to Rs 916.5bn compared with Rs 1.1tn in the same period last year.

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MPC announced another 40bps reduction in policy rate to 4%.

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Central government has sanctioned Rs 920.8bn for transfers to states for Apr-May'20.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 193.6bn and stood at Rs 25.9tn for the week ended 15 May 2020.

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India’s exports are expected to fall by 20% in FY21 (decline of 4.3% in FY20) as per estimates by FIEO.

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NABARD has disbursed Rs 205bn to cooperative banks and RRBs.

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US yields closed lower due to poor economic data (retail sales, jobless claims, Fed Chair comments).

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In the last tranche of the fiscal package, the FM announced a 2% rise in state borrowings.

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The FM today announced a 2% increase in states borrowing by Rs 4.28tn to Rs 10.69tn.

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The FM today announced measures to 1) Fast Track investments, 2) Open up coal and mining sector to private sector, 3) Privatisation of DISCOMs in UTs, and 4) Boost defence manufacturing and aviation sector.

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The FM today announced third tranche of 10% stimulus focused on agri sector.

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The second stimulus was worth Rs 3.2tn, of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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The second stimulus is worth Rs 3.2tn out of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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The trend of food, fuel and available categories of manufactured products shows a decline in wholesale inflation.

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As a part of Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, FM has announced Rs 6tn boost for MSMEs, NBFCs and power sector.

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Honourable PM announced a big bang Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package to stimulate the economy and give impetus to local manufacturing.

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Government has announced stimulus of Rs 20tn (10% of GDP) to combat the economic crisis.

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Even with data capturing challenges, underlying trend of higher food prices and lower production (IIP contracted by 16.7%) has been captured.

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An estimated 73% of India’s economy is open now compared with 30% in Apr’20.

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India’s growth bottomed out in Apr’20 with 70% of the economy in lockdown.

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Government has released Rs 62bn to 14 States as second monthly instalment for revenue deficit grants.

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Global yields steepened with US unemployment rate increasing to 14.7% and disappointing US factory and Germany’s exports data.

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Centre has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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Central government has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 122bn and stood at Rs 25.3tn for the week ending 1 May 2020.

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Government has hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 2) & Rs 13 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 5) respectively.

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India’s manufacturing PMI reading fell sharply to 27.4 in Apr’20 compared with 51.8 in Mar’20.

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Oil prices rose and DXY fell as global risk sentiment improved.

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According to news reports, total GST collections for Mar’20 fell to Rs 283bn versus Rs 976bn in Feb’20 and Rs 1.13tn in Mar’19.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 166.6bn and stood at Rs 25.2tn for the week ending 24 Apr 2020.

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ADB has announced an assistance package of US$ 1.5bn for India in order to counter the effects of COVID-19 on health, welfare and overall economy.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3.1mn as of 27 Apr 2020 versus 2.5mn last week.

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The week saw negative oil prices, a first as global supply outran storage due to demand compression.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3mn as of 26 Apr 2020, yet the pace of increase is declining. On a daily basis, new cases in US rose the most by 26,730, followed by Spain at 2,870 and Italy at 2,324.

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As per news reports, government has decided to amend the insolvency law and suspend sections 7, 9 and 10 for 6 months-1 year.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 196.3bn and stood at Rs 25tn for the week ending 17 Apr 2020.

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As per news reports, government is likely to announce another stimulus package amounting to Rs 6-8tn (3-4% of GDP).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.5mn as of 20 Apr 2020.

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Global equity markets closed higher on the hope of successful treatment to Covid-19 to hit the markets soon enough.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.4mn as of 19 Apr 2020.

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Following up on measures announced on 27 March, RBI today announced 1) 25bps reduction in reverse repo rate, 2) TLTRO of Rs 500bn for NBFCs, 3) Higher WMA limits for states, 4) Standstill on asset classification norms, and 5) Scope for further reduction in policy rates.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.2mn as of 16 Apr 2020.

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India’s exports fell steeply in Mar’20 by 34.6% versus an increase of 2.9% in Feb’20.

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India’s trade deficit remained steady at US$ 9.8bn in Mar’20 on a MoM basis.

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WPI inflation moderated to a 4-month low of 1% in Mar’20 from 2.3% in Feb’20.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2mn as of 14 Apr 2020. However the pace of increase is slowing with daily fresh cases rising by only 4% this week vs an average increase of 8% last week.

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CPI moderated to a 4-month low of 5.9% in Mar’20 led by food inflation.

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MPC members voted unanimously to cut rates and keep an accommodative stance.

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Globally risk sentiment improved with new projections showing US deaths may be lower than worst case scenario anticipated earlier.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.8mn as of 12 Apr 2020 (1.04 times increase vs last week).

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Industrial growth rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in Feb’20 from 2.1% in Jan’20.

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With 70% of economy in a lockdown, we see sharp reduction in domestic consumption and investment demand.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.5mn as of 8 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.4mn as of 7 Apr 2020 (1.3 times increase vs last week).

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World added fewer cases of COVID-19 in the last few days which resulted in a rebound in equity markets.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.3mn as of 6 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.02mn as of 2 Apr 2020 (1.8 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 856,581 as of 31 Mar 2020 (2.1 times increase vs last week).

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Centre’s H1FY21 gross borrowing is pegged at Rs 4.88tn in H1FY21 compared with Rs 4.25tn in H1FY20.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 7,84,395 as of 30 Mar 2020 (2.2 times increase vs last week).

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Global markets responded positively to US fiscal stimulus.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 703,700 as of 29 Mar 2020 (2.3 times increase vs last week).

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With 70% of economy in lockdown, MPC members reduced repo and reverse repo rate by 75bps and 90bps respectively.

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COVID-19 cases increased globally to 514,999 as of 26 Mar 2020 (3.4 times increase vs last week).

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With complete lockdown, ~70% of economic activity — investment, exports and discretionary consumption — has come to a halt.

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and have risen to 462,346 as of 26 Mar 2020 (2.8 times increase vs last week).

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and rose 3.5 times to 368,227 for the week ended 23 Mar 2020.

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A 3 times increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases to 152,366, drove Dow down by 17.1%.

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COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally. For the week ended 22 Mar 2020, number of COVID-19 globally increased 2 times to 318,297.

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As per news reports, Ministry of Finance is considering a Rs 100-200bn stimulus package to support the aviation sector.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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Centre’s direct tax collections on FYTD basis reached Rs 8.6tn as of Feb’20 vs FY20RE of Rs 11.7tn.

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In an effort to boost durable liquidity to combat the impact of COVID-19, RBI has announced that it will conduct LTROs in multiple tranches at policy rate, amounting to Rs 1tn.

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WPI inflation edged down to 2.3% in Feb’20 from 3.1% in Jan’20 led by food inflation (7.8% in Feb’20 vs 11.5% in Jan’20).

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In a surprise move, US Fed reduced policy rate by 1% and announced US$ 700bn of bond purchases.

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GST council has hiked rates on mobile phones to 18% from 12%, in order to correct the inverted duty structure.

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 9.9bn in Feb’20 from US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 as oil, electronic and capital goods imports came-off on MoM basis.

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CPI inflation in India edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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India’s CAD fell to US$ 1.4bn (0.2% of GDP) in Q3FY20 from US$ 6.5bn in Q2FY20 (0.9% of GDP) on the back of lower trade deficit.

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CPI inflation edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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While domestic manufacturing and services sector PMIs have risen to 8-year and 7-year highs respectively, global PMIs have shrunk led by China.

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RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in Jan’20 in the spot market (highest in 5 years) vs US$ 4.4bn in Dec’19.

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As per news reports, government may bring down the tax rate on dividend income for domestic investors from 43% to 20% in the highest tax bracket.

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Global yields fell as markets assess economic impact of COVID-19.

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The government has sought parliament approval for an additional spending of Rs 540bn in FY20.

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EPFO has cut interest rate by 15bps to its 7-year low of 8.5% in FY20.

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India’s services PMI rose to 57.5 in Feb’20 from 55.5 in Jan’20.

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 10.7bn in Q3FY20 vs US$ 9.8bn in Q2FY20.

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India’s manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 54.5 in Feb’20 from 55.3 in Jan’20.

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Global markets fell as COVID-19 outbreak spread beyond China to Italy, South Korea and Middle East.

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India’s central government fiscal deficit is at 4.3% of GDP (12M trailing basis) in Jan’20 vs FY20 (RE) of 3.8%.

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India’s GDP and GVA growth moderated to 4.7% and 4.5% in Q3FY20 from a revised growth of 5.1% and 4.9% in Q2.

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As per news reports, EPFO is considering a 15bps cut in deposit rate to 8.5% for FY20 vs 8.65% in FY19.

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India’s economic slowdown is likely to bottom out in FY20 – we expect growth to tick up to 5.5% in FY21 and 6.2% in FY22 spurred by infrastructure spends, funded by strategic sale and divestment of CPSEs.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 110bn and stood at Rs 23.6tn for the week ending 21 Feb 2020.

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According to NSO report, ESIC added 1.3mn persons as new subscribers in Dec’19 vs 1.5mn persons in Nov’19.

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According to news reports, Ministry of Finance is not in favour of postponing the payment of AGR dues of telecom companies beyond the deadline.

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Economic data of Japan, China, Eurozone, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand shows flagging demand due to impact of COVID-19 or tax hike in Japan.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 92bn and stood at Rs 23.5tn for the week ending 14 Feb 2020.

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MPC members noted that economic activity has slowed down since the last policy.

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According to 2nd advance estimates, India is expected to clock a record foodgrain production which is 2.4% (291.95mn tonne in AY20) higher than last year.

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