Research Reports

30-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks

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29-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets

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28-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet

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27-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Global Inflation: Global inflation boiling up

Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | FPI Flows: What is driving FPI flows?

FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown

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23-Jun-22

BOB Economics Research | Forex Cover: Forex risk of India Inc.

The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy

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23-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage

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22-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22

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21-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22

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20-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22

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17-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception

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16-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Fuel Prices: Do states have space to lower VAT on petrol?

With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards

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16-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar

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15-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI remains elevated

Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee slips to a record-low: What to make of it?

Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation

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13-Jun-22

BOB Economics | CPI: Favourable base supported CPI

Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base

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13-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial output climbs to 8-month high

India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Central banks on war footing

With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22

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09-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%

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08-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Tackling inflation a priority

RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns

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08-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier

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07-Jun-22

BOB Economics | FY22 Review: Financial highlights of banks

We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)

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07-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns

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06-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: More rate hikes on the cards

In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps

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06-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction

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03-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike

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02-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2022

With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated

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02-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

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01-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR

With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated

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01-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.7% in FY22

Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP Growth: GDP growth stands at 8.7% in FY22

Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia

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30-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting

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27-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia

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26-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings

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25-May-22

BOB Economics | GDP Expectations: Recovery in FY22

Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services

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25-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth

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24-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Government cuts excise etc. What are fiscal implications?

Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | External Borrowings: Taking stock of ECBs

External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis

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20-May-22

BOB Economics | Crop Production: 3rd Advance Estimates – Rabi and Kharif production

According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years

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20-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices

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19-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)

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18-May-22

BOB Economics | Investment Trends: Corporate investment in H1-FY22

Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21

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18-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to macro prints (US retail sales and industrial production) and US Fed Chair Powell’s speech

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17-May-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR

DXY continued to hover around a 20-year high in May’22 amidst safe-haven demand as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by Fed

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17-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors remained concerned about global economic recovery which remains fragile as inflationary pressure continue to build on globally

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 20.1bn in Apr’22 from US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Petrol Prices: How high is the price of petrol in India?

Rising fuel prices in India has led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation spikes, IIP inching up

India’s CPI rose to 7.8% in Apr’22 from 7% in Mar’22, reaching the highest level since May’14

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | Investment Scenario: Have investment intentions turned around?

New project announcements in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly to Rs 6.2 lakh crore in FY22 versus Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY20

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked

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11-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions

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10-May-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: More rate hikes in the offing

Globally central banks are faced with the dilemma of high inflation and low growth

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10-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns over global growth drove global markets

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09-May-22

BOB Economics | FPI Flows: Trends in FPI flows in India

FPIs play an important role in the economy in terms of providing support to the equity and debt market besides adding strength to the foreign capital flows

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09-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth

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06-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors continued to monitor central bank decisions globally

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05-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectations, Fed hiked the policy rate by 50bps, biggest jump in over 22-years and also announced measures to reduce its US$ 9tn balance sheet starting next month

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04-May-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: RBI’s Surprise move

RBI clearly surprised markets by going for a rather abrupt 40bps hike in policy rate, signalling withdrawal of accommodation and also hiking the CRR rate by 50bps

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04-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market is eyeing Fed’s policy decision and anticipating a rate hike of 50bps and also balance sheet reduction

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Employment Study: What employment data suggests?

Employment is one of the leading indicators of growth as an increase in the same is a signal that more jobs are being created which will generate income and demand

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2022

War between Russia and Ukraine continues to keep global commodity prices elevated

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain range-bound

Global currencies depreciated against the dollar in the last fortnight

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained rattled by the stagflation like situation worldwide

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29-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP contracted unexpectedly by 1.4% in Q1CY22 (est. +1%) on the back of rising Covid-19 cases and waning fiscal support

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28-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Expectations of a 50bps rate hike by the Fed next week, led to a sharp jump in US 10Y yield. DXY too strengthened to a 5-year high

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27-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to track developments surrounding China’s Covid-19 outbreak and Fed policy tightening

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26-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s Covid-19 outbreak worsened as reports indicated possibility of lockdown in Beijing

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25-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Increasing hawkish rhetoric by major Central Banks and spread of Covid-19 in China kept global markets on edge

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22-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Major global yields (US, Germany and UK) rose sharply following hawkish comments from Fed Chair and ECB officials

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21-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield dropped sharply following IMF’s downgrade of global growth projection

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20-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Rising Oil Prices: What does the past tell us?

Evaluating historical data of international crude price and its impact on India’s growth and inflation reveal some interesting results

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20-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global yields rose sharply led by US as Fed officials signalled of a 75bps rate hike amidst aggravating inflationary concerns

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Impact: Is normal monsoon a good indicator for agriculture?

Every year, before the beginning of the monsoon season, different agencies predict if the rainfall will be normal or not

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Surge in oil prices remains key risk to INR

Global currencies closed lower against the dollar

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currencies broadly closed lower as war tensions escalated

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18-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International oil prices rose by 2.7% on reports of phased sanction by EU on Russian oil

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13-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Record-high exports

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22 from US$ 20.9bn in Feb’22 as exports rose at a much faster pace than imports on a MoM basis

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13-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Retail inflation in both US (8.5% versus 8.4%) and India (6.95% versus 6.4%) was reported to be higher than expected in Mar’22

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12-Apr-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Industrial output up; inflation firms up

India’s industrial output inched up at a much slower pace to 1.7% in Feb’22 (1.5% in Jan’22) with manufacturing output up by 0.8%

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12-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International oil prices fell below US$100/bbl-a first since 16 Mar 2022, as investors are concerned about extended lockdown in China to curb Covid-19 cases

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11-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI hints at policy normalisation

Global markets continue to be watchful as concerns over ongoing Russia-Ukraine war eased

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11-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following new set of sanctions announced by the US on Russia, EU has also announced sanctions on Friday

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Sri Lanka: Financial crisis explained

Sri Lanka has been embroiled in an economic crisis amidst record-high inflation and mounting debt

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: Inflation back in focus

RBI has kept the policy rates unchanged and is tilted towards what may be called a hawkish view as it has rephrased its accommodative stance while keeping it unchanged

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored hawkish Fed commentary

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07-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that Fed officials might raise policy rates by 50bps in the next meeting

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06-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as developments surrounding the possibility of fresh sanctions on Russia by US and European countries

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05-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: Stance to be changed, rates on hold

In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Apr 2022, we expect MPC to change stance from accommodative to neutral

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05-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reports that Western countries are mulling fresh sanctions on Russia, including possible ban on Russian coal and oil imports once again cast a shadow on global recovery

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04-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest data for US unemployment shows that the rate was down to 2-year low of 3.6% Mar’22, indicating that a strong labour market will push US Fed to hiking rates more aggressively

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to stabilise at 75.5-76.5/$

After depreciating to a record-low of 76.97/$, INR has stabilised in the last few days

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Industry Report: Which industries are vulnerable in terms of fuel cost

RBI in a recent report has highlighted three industries-electricity, chemicals and automobiles, as being the most vulnerable sectors in terms of fossil fuel intensity

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2022

With continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices remain elevated

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Risk of elevated inflation continued to pose concerns for global markets. Germany’s inflation print rose to its 30-year high

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31-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 and 48.4 respectively in Mar’22 led by disruption in economic activities due to covid-19 outbreak

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30-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Led by hopes of possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global equity indices ended higher

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29-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices slumped lower by 6.8% to US$ 113/bbl

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28-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s industrial profits rose by 5% for the Jan-Feb’21 period (4.2% in Dec’21)

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25-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US’ initial jobless claims fell to 187k (est.: 212k) as of week ending 19 Mar 2022, from 216 in the previous week

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24-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US President Joe Biden is meeting European and NATO leaders to announce fresh sanctions on Russia

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17-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed raised policy rate for the first time since CY18 by 25bps

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16-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Forex Update: What the war has meant?

The Ukraine war tended to cast a shadow on the forex market and the tendency was for currencies to depreciate against the dollar

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16-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored progress between Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Sensex and FPI: Does FPI drive the Markets?

Amongst emerging countries, India has remained a bright spot for foreign investors

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports stable; Imports rebound

India’s trade deficit in Feb’22 widened to 3-month high of US$ 20.9bn from US$ 17.4bn in Jan’22

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored geopolitical developments around Russia and Ukraine

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of industries indicate?

A quick indicator of solvency of companies is the interest cover

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation remains a concern

CPI inflation rose to 6.1% against market consensus of 6%

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked the progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth improves

IIP growth rose to 1.3% in Jan’22 from 0.7% in Dec’21 led by manufacturing (1.1% from 0.2% in Dec’21) and mining output (2.8% from 2.6% in Dec’21)

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | State of Discoms: DISCOMs under stress

Against the background of the recently concluded State Elections where free power was an important issue, we analyse the current situation of DISCOMs in states

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to surging US inflation and ECB comments on winding down its assets purchase programme sooner than expected

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10-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Equity markets in advanced countries took a breather as commodity prices eased from near record-highs

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09-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices surged further (highest since the 2008 Financial crisis), as US announced a ban on oil imports from Russia

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08-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on Russia-Ukraine war

Russia-Ukraine war has grappled markets worldwide

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08-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices continued to edge upwards amidst reports that US is likely to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector

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07-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global markets and outweighed stronger than expected US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair

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04-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Worsening Russia and Ukraine situation continued to impact global markets

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03-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Where are commodity prices headed?

The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has impacted commodity prices to a considerable extent

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03-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were rattled by escalating geopolitical tensions

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Wrap – February 2022

Last month saw multiple economic and political developments at domestic and global levels

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to trade at ~76/$ in Mar’22

Risks to the INR outlook have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting rise in oil prices

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained on edge as hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued

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28-Feb-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: Q3FY22 GDP at 5.4%

India’s GDP growth is estimated at 8.9% in FY22 (-6.6% in FY21)

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28-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currencies closed higher supported by better macro print in the US (consumer spending, durable goods orders) and Euro Area (economic confidence index)

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25-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Ukraine crisis: Impact of Ukraine crisis on India

Tension between Russia and Ukraine was simmering in the last few months

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25-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets fell as Russia moved troops into Ukrainian borders and launched an attack

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24-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are eyeing deepening tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Ukraine has announced a 30-day state of emergency in the country

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23-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to monitor reaction to Russia’s recognition of 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine and moving its troops in those areas

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22-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remain jittery, driven by mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine

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21-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remain wary of geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine and are closing tracking global efforts to diffuse the tensions

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18-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine

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17-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked developments over the Russia-Ukraine tensions and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

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16-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor positive development surrounding Russia and Ukraine

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Trade - Exports and imports moderate in Jan’22

India’s trade deficit in FYTD22 has surged to US$ 154.8bn from US$ 73.6bn in FYTD21

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | States Update - State elections: Economic status of states

With 5 states (13.2% of India’s GDP) entering their Assembly elections, it is interesting to see how they stack up in relative terms on economic and social indicators

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Globally, markets remain on edge due to heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia

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14-Feb-22

BOB Economics | CPI: CPI touches 6%

CPI inflation rose to 6% in Jan’22 from 5.7% in Dec’21, led by food inflation (5.4% versus 4%)

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14-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Globally central banks are giving different views

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11-Feb-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth disappoints

IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Dec’21 from 1.3% in Nov’21 led by mining (2.6% from 4.9% in Nov’21) and manufacturing output (declined by -0.1% from an increase of 0.8%)

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11-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI rose by 7.5% (highest since 1982) in Jan’22 compared with 7% in Dec’21 and estimated 7.3% increase

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10-Feb-22

BOB Economics | RBI policy: Inflation underestimated, growth still a priority

RBI has kept all policy rates unchanged

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10-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data due later in the week remains a key watchable for the markets

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09-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await US CPI print, due this Thursday, and are also tracking the progress of US-Iran talking to assess the impact on oil supply and prices

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08-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI to raise reverse repo rate

India’s recovery has gained momentum with a steady moderation in Covid-19 cases recently

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08-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are closely tracking US-Iran talks and await US CPI print due this week for Fed policy guidance

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05-Feb-22

BOB Economics | RBI: Pre-Policy View - Time to Hike: Reverse Repo

Elevated crude oil and commodity prices continue to add to India’s inflation concerns

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04-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets closely tracked the policy rate decisions by central banks

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03-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Rate: Bond versus Bank finance - An analysis of rates

In the current scenario, where interest rates are rising (20bps increase in 10Y Gsec yield in Feb’22, 15bps increase in AAA rated corporate yield and 18bps increase in AA+ paper of 10Y tenor), the primary challenge is funding

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03-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to rally

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02-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored manufacturing PMI prints and awaited BoE and ECB’s policy meet

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis

Budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with major thrust given to government capex

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Union Budget 2022-23: Investment focused budget

Union budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with focus on boosting government capex and reviving private sector spending

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets shifted their focus towards Central Bank meetings scheduled later this week

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31-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Economic Survey: Economic Survey advocates “Agile” approach

This year’s Economic Survey has painted a positive picture of growth, supported by central Government’s “Barbell strategy and Agile response”

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31-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor hawkish comments by Fed

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28-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Except Dow (flat) and FTSE (higher), other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hawkish commentary by Fed

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27-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to range between 75-76/$

INR has depreciated sharply today in the aftermath of Fed policy

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27-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield shot up by 9bps as Fed Chair remarked that “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate” signalling rate hike cycle to begin in Mar’22

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25-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to build

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24-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY23 Budget Preview: What to watch for?

Budget for FY23 will see the government walking the tight rope in terms of boosting growth and achieving fiscal consolidation

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24-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and bond indices ended lower, as investors remained cautious awaiting FOMC comments

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20-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY22 Fiscal Review: Fiscal consolidation to take a hit

Despite a higher than projected nominal GDP growth and pick up in revenues, we except fiscal deficit in FY22 to come at 7%

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20-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as investors await comments from US Federal Reserve

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19-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, FM is likely to consider a waiver of capital gain tax in the upcoming Union Budget of India

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18-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022

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17-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21

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14-Jan-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI eases in Dec’21

WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation

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14-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations

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13-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA

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12-Jan-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation and industrial growth: horns of dilemma?

CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%

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12-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22

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11-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week

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10-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021

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07-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: FY22 GDP expected at 9.2%

India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%

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17-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets

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16-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn

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15-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports

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14-Sep-21

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation at elevated levels, food inflation dips

WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21

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14-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | CPI: Food inflation drives CPI lower

CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation data to guide markets

Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production

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11-Sep-21

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial activity continues to recover

Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21

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09-Sep-21

Monthly Chartbook: India’s improving Vaccination rate to boost growth

India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn

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09-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)

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08-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021

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07-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21

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06-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving

With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed

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06-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions

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03-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21

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03-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens led by higher gold imports

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports

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02-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21

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01-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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31-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Q1FY22 GDP: Growth recovers on a low base

India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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31-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22

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30-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving

Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year

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30-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21

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27-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres

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26-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021

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25-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum

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24-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25

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23-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives DXY to 9-month high

Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high

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23-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21

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20-Aug-21

BOB Economics | August MPC minutes: Growth remains a priority

August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway

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20-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.

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18-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21

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17-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: MPC and FOMC minutes hold the key

US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence

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17-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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16-Aug-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Food and Fuel inflation drops, core inches up

WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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13-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables

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12-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases

India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect

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12-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)

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11-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis

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10-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Outlook improving, inflation remains a worry

India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability

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10-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown

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09-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation back in focus

US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)

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09-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year

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06-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: Initial signs of normalisation

MPC maintained status quo on rates

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06-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law

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05-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace

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04-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21

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03-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports shine, oil and gold imports accelerate

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports

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03-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21

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02-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI policy to guide markets

Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower

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02-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21

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30-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)

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29-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill

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28-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier

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27-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%

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26-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields ease with rising Covid-19 cases

Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

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26-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021

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23-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021

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22-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week

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20-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19

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19-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s economic activity improves further

Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

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19-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021

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16-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20

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15-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021

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14-Jul-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Peak is behind

WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)

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14-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy

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13-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases

India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Eye on CPI

Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021

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09-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Activity improving, inflation a cause of worry

India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21

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09-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions

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08-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021

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07-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20

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06-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21

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05-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields inch up, global yields fall

Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong

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05-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports see a stellar recovery

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | RBI FSR: Emerging stress in MSMEs and Consumer loans

While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22

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01-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21

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30-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Rising oil prices=wider current account deficit

India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit

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30-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021

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29-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Stimulus to boost growth

FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global and Indian yields inching up

Global economic activity remained buoyant

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21

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25-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21

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24-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis

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23-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget

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22-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week

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21-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US monetary cycle reversing

US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast

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21-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021

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18-Jun-21

BOB Economics | June MPC Minutes: MPC to emphasise on inflation in next meeting

MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown

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18-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils

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17-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year

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16-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon

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15-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Inflation: CPI springs a negative surprise

CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Rising oil and commodity prices push WPI higher

WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India's economic recovery continues

Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021

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11-Jun-21

Economics Research | IIP: Industrial output steady over a 2-year horizon

Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)

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11-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21

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10-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India on path to recovery

Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21

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10-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.

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09-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).

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08-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.

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07-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Domestic economic activity improving

US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.

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07-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).

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04-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: RBI extends liquidity to support growth

MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.

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04-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.

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03-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.

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02-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil-non-gold imports resilient over 2 years

India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.

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02-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.

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01-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Q4FY21 GDP: GDP surprises positively

India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian states to begin phased reopening

US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.

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28-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.

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27-May-21

BOB Economics | RBI annual report: Large surplus despite shorter accounting period

RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).

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25-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.

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24-May-21

BOB Economics Research | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave Plateauing

Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.

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24-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

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21-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.

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20-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.

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19-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.

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18-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | GDP Update: Growth to take a further hit

With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Base effect, rising commodity prices push WPI higher

WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave flattening

Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.

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14-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.

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12-May-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity rebounds, inflation eases

India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.

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12-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.

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11-May-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery hit by second wave

Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.

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11-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.

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10-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Local restrictions impact economic activity

Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.

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10-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.

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07-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.

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06-May-21

BOB Economics Research | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.

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05-May-21

BOB Economics | RBI Policy Measure: RBI measures for Covid 2.0

RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.

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05-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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04-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Rising Covid-19 cases a risk to recovery

Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).

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30-Apr-21

BOB Economics | India Currency Watch: Crystal gazing the USD and INR

A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.

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30-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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29-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.

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28-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.

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27-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.

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26-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery holds ground

Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.

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26-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.

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23-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.

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22-Apr-21

BOB Economics | April MPC Minutes: MPC steadfast on growth

MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.

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22-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.

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20-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | GDP Update: Second wave dents India's growth

With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery pushes commodity prices higher

Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.

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16-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.

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15-Apr-21

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation accelerates, peak in Q1

WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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15-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.

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12-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial output falls, inflation inches up

India’s industrial output fell by 3.6% in Feb’21 from 0.9% in Jan’21 led by dip in mining and manufacturing.

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12-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Second wave a risk to recovery

Rising global Covid-19 infections pose a risk to global recovery.

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12-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, combined capex of 37 large CPSEs was at Rs 4.6tn in FY21, which is 92% of the budgeted target and also 4.3% higher than FY20.

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09-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Second wave poses risk to recovery

Rising Covid-19 infections in India pose a risk to our growth estimate of 11.5% in FY22.

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09-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF in its recent statement said that India's debt to GDP ratio shot upto 90% in CY20 against 74% in CY19.

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08-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 37.3bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 2 Apr 2021.

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07-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Growth remains centre point of monetary policy

MPC kept repo rate on hold but removed time specific stance guidance in favour of one contingent on reviving growth.

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07-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF has upgraded India’s growth forecast to 12.5% in FY22 from 11.5% projected earlier.

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06-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI fell to a 7-month low of 55.4 in Mar’21 from 57.5 in Feb’21.

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05-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Manufacturing PMIs signal global recovery

Global yields rose with manufacturing PMIs showing signs of recovery.

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05-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, new project announcements rose to Rs 1.2tn in Q4FY21 from Rs 1.1tn in Q3FY21.

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03-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil imports surge

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 14.1bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 led by sharp rebound in gold (+584%) and non-oil-non-gold (+46%) imports.

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01-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s eight core output contracted to a 6-month low of 4.6% in Feb’21 from an increase of 0.9% in Jan’21.

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31-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government borrowing skewed towards long-end

Centre’s borrowing in H1FY22 is pegged at Rs 7.2tn compared with Rs 7.4tn in H1FY21.

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31-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Rising imports drive current account to deficit

India’s current account went back into deficit of US$ 1.7bn (-0.2% of GDP) from surplus of US$ 15.1bn (2.4% of GDP) in Q2.

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31-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre has confirmed that Rs 300bn have been transferred to states on 27 Mar 2021 as GST compensation, bringing the total amount transferred to Rs 700bn for FY21 so far.

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30-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Rising Covid-19 cases a worry

Yield differential between US and other economies widened led by US vaccination drive and stimulus.

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30-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) inched down to 6.48% as on 29 Mar 2021 against 6.53% in the previous week.

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26-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, NHAI is planning to raise Rs 1tn through monetisation of national highways in the next 5-years.

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25-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 11.6bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 19 Mar 2021.

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24-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, central government has collected ~Rs 304bn as dividend receipts from CPSEs in FYTD21 (till 22 Mar 2021), slightly lower than the revised target of Rs 347bn.

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23-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s highway construction is gaining pace as it touched a record high of 34km/day construction in FY21 (till 22 Mar 2021).

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22-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields rise further

US 10Y yield rose by 10bps to a 14-month high even as Fed Chair tried to calm the markets with forward guidance of accommodative policy.

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22-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

EPFO’s data indicates that 0.82mn new subscribers were added in Jan’21, broadly steady compared with 0.85mn added in Dec’20.

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19-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

UNCTAD has revised India’s growth forecast for CY21 upwards to 5% from 3.9% earlier.

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18-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) in India rose slightly to 6.53% as on 17 Mar 2021 from 6.52% in the previous week.

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17-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 17.3% (YoY) between 1-14 Mar 2021 (US$ 14.2bn), after rising by 0.7% in Feb’21.

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16-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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15-Mar-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Rising WPI to find its way into CPI

WPI accelerated to a 27-month high of 4.1% in Feb’21 led by higher food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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15-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global equities and yields inch up

Global equities continued to move higher on the back of US stimulus, global vaccination drive and economic recovery.

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15-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 580.3bn in the week ended 5 Mar 2021.

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12-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: IIP falls and inflation inches up

India’s industrial output fell by 1.6% in Jan’21 (+1.6% in Dec’20) led by drop in capital goods and consumer non-durables.

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12-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s fuel consumption fell for the 2nd straight month in Feb’21 to its lowest since Sep’20 by 4.6% (MoM basis) to 17.2mn tonnes.

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10-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

OECD has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 higher to 12.6% from 7.9% estimated earlier and a contraction of 7.4% in FY21.

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09-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government has received over 0.13mn declarations under Vivad se Vishwas scheme involving a disputed tax of Rs 983bn.

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08-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Rising oil prices a worry

A government driven capex cycle is holding ground with general government capex spending up by 123.6% in Jan’21 (50.4% in Dec’20).

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08-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields move up as economy rebounds

US economy is showing a strong rebound with payrolls and manufacturing activity surprising positively thus driving US 10Y higher.

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08-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 51.5bn between Apr-Dec’20, compared with US$ 36.8bn in the same period last year.

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05-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is focussing on farmers producer organisations (FPOs) to support small and marginal farmers.

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04-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI jumped sharply in Feb’21 to 55.3 from 52.8 in Jan’21.

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03-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Indian government recently concluded auction of telecom spectrum garnering Rs 778bn in revenue.

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02-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Imports accelerate, exports dip

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.9bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.

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02-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections remained above Rs 1tn mark for the 5th consecutive month in Jan’21, although it eased marginally from Rs 1.2tn (8.1%) in Dec’20 to Rs 1.1tn (7.4%) in Jan’21.

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01-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields inch up

Global reflation trade drove US 10Y to a 1-year high.

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01-Mar-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s data showed that credit demand moderated to 5.8% in Jan’21 against 5.9% in Dec’20.

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26-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Q3FY21 GDP: Growth back in positive territory

After two consecutive quarters of decline, GDP and GVA growth returned to the positive territory at 0.4% and 1% respectively in Q3FY21.

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26-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In India, cooking gas LPG prices rose for the third time in Feb’21.

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25-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per second advance estimates, India’s foodgrain output is expected to rise by 2.5% to 303mn tonne in CY21 (crop year) and will even surpass its target level (301mn tonne).

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24-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is planning to finalise an asset monetisation pipeline for the next 3 years.

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23-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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22-Feb-21

BOB Economics | February MPC Minutes: MPC points to medium-term inflation risks

The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated the MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.

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22-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields see a leg up

Global yields rose sharply led by US and UK, as reflation bets gained momentum amidst an improvement in economic activity.

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22-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 250mn in the week ended 12 Feb 2021 to US$ 583.7bn.

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18-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to protect the interest of investors and depositors, RBI has issued several directions for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs).

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17-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, the additional cess of Rs 13-16/lt imposed on auto fuels from Mar’20 onwards is likely to earn the exchequer around Rs 1.9tn (over FY20) compared with Rs 1.2tn estimated in FY21RE.

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16-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20.

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15-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Rising commodity and oil prices push WPI higher

WPI accelerated to 2% in Jan’21 from 1.2% in Dec’20 led by manufactured inflation at 5.1% (4.2% in Dec’20).

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15-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields rise, Indian yields fall

Global yields (except India) moved higher with steady decline in Covid-19 cases and economic upturn.

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15-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government may soon announce more schemes focussing on agriculture and its infrastructure development.

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12-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: IIP rebounds and food inflation falls

India’s industrial output improved to 1% in Dec’20 (-2.1% in Nov’20) led by acceleration in manufacturing and electricity output.

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12-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Recovery in auto industry hit a snag, as retail sales contracted by 10% in Jan'21 from an increase of 11% in Dec'20.

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11-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 16.2bn and stood at Rs 28.2tn for the week ending 05 Feb 2021.

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10-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per IEA report, India will overtake EU as the world’s third largest energy consumer by CY30.

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09-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s Finance ministry has confirmed that dues for GST compensation to states for Apr-Nov’20 period stands at Rs 2.06tn.

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08-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gaining ground

India’s FM presented a historic Budget with a vision to spend and monetise assets to lead India’s economic recovery.

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08-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s fiscal impulse drive yields higher

Global equity markets rose on the back of strong corporate results and manufacturing activity.

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08-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Centre is likely to incentivise states to pursue disinvestment in state government PSUs.

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05-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Rates on hold, focus on liquidity

MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and into next financial year.

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05-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Domestic petrol and diesel prices continued to increase in Feb’21.

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04-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services activity slightly moderated as PMI print was tad lower at 52.3 in Jan’21 versus 52.8 in Dec’20.

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03-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil exports.

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02-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover, non-oil-non-gold imports stable

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil-exports.

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02-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% in FY20.

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01-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Union Budget 2021-22: Big push for investments

The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% of GDP in FY20.

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01-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Focus shifts to Budget and RBI policy

Global equity markets fell on the back of concerns over vaccine rollout.

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01-Feb-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s total GST collections rose to Rs 1.20tn for the month of Dec’20 versus Rs 1.15tn in Nov’20.

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29-Jan-21

BOB Economics | 1st Re of National Income: FY20 growth revised to 4%

CSO has revised FY20 growth to 4% from 4.2%.

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29-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2020-21: Double digit growth in FY22

Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 11% in FY22 after contracting by 7.7% in FY21, on the back of a low base, PLI scheme, infra investments and roll-out of vaccine drive.

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29-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, in the budget for FY22, capex spending target for 36 major CPSEs may get increased by 50-60% to Rs 7.5-8tn from Rs 4.95tn in FY21.

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28-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 7.7bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 22 Jan 2021.

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27-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF has projected India’s growth to rebound to 11.5% in FY22 from a decline of 8% in FY21, to be the fastest growing country in the world.

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25-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on Budget

Hopes of US$ 1.9tn fiscal stimulus in the US under the new President lifted global equities and currencies higher.

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25-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 584.2bn in the week ended 15 Jan 2021 from a record high of US$ 586.1bn.

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22-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in the spot market in Nov’20 compared with net purchase of US$ 15.6bn in Oct’20.

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21-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 125bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 15 Jan 2021.

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20-Jan-21

BOB Economics | FY22 Budget Preview: Reviving growth with fiscal consolidation

A counter cyclical fiscal response to contraction in GDP growth implies India’s fiscal deficit will rise to 7.2% of GDP in FY21.

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20-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

News reports suggest that the Centre may announce complete shift to DBT for providing fertiliser subsidy to farmers in FY22 Budget.

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19-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is considering hiking custom duties by 5%-10% on about 50 items such as smartphones, electronic components, refrigerators and other electronic appliances.

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18-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India yield curve flattens

Global yields fell, equity markets were lower and DXY index rose as world economy battles another wave of Covid-19.

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18-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports have risen by 10.9% (YoY) in the first two weeks of Jan’21, compared with 0.1% increase in Dec’20.

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15-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India's passenger vehicles sales noticed a sharp uptick as it registered a growth of 13.6% in Dec'20 versus 4.6% in Nov'20.

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14-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI lower

WPI eased to a 4-month low of 1.2% in Dec’20 from 1.5% in Nov’20 led by moderation in food inflation to 0.9% in Dec’20.

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14-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 27bn and stood at Rs 27.9tn for the week ending 8 Jan 2021.

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13-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Recovery in India’s industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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12-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation ebbs, industrial activity slips

India’s recovery in industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.

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12-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Recovery holding ground

India’s economic recovery continues to gain momentum.

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12-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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11-Jan-21

BOB Economics | RBI Financial Stability Report (FSR): RBI’s FSR points to higher NPAs

RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.

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11-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields inch up led by US

US 10Y yield inched up by 20bps in the week after Democratic party regained control of the Senate.

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11-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has again announced variable rate reverse repo auction on 15 Jan 2021 worth Rs 2tn to restore normal liquidity operation.

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08-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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07-Jan-21

BOB Economics | FY21 GDP: Strong rebound on the cards

India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.

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07-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI eased to 52.3 in Dec’20 (53.7 in Nov’20) with growth in new business and output softening.

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06-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 9.6% in FY21 before recovering to 5.4% in FY22 and 5.2% in FY23.

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05-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing activity continued to remain robust as visible in the PMI reading. It rose to 56.4 in Dec’20 compared with 56.3 in Nov’20.

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04-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Domestic recovery gains steam

Global equity indices ended CY20 on a high driven by news of Covid-19 vaccine, US stimulus deal and Brexit trade deal. DXY index fell to a 32-month low on concern over rising twin deficits.

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04-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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02-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Sharp acceleration in imports

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.

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01-Jan-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s eight core index contracted by 2.6% in Nov’20 (3-month low) from 0.9% in Oct’20.

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31-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn in Q2FY21 (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1 (3.8% of GDP).

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31-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: External position remains favourable

With revival in economic activity in Q2FY21, current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1.

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30-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s report on Trend and Progress of Banking stated that GNPA ratio of SCBs has declined to 7.5% as of Sep’20 from 8.2% as of Mar’20.

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29-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s recent working paper has pointed out that current 4% inflation target is appropriate in the medium-term.

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28-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Year ends with conclusive deals

The year ended with a Brexit deal and US President signing a US$ 900bn stimulus.

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28-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 2.6bn to a record high of US$ 581.1bn in the week ended 18 Dec 2020.

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24-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 329bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 18 Dec 2020.

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23-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India's crude oil production slipped to 2.49mn tonne in Nov'20 (4.9% drop) compared with 2.61mn tonne in Nov'19.

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22-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

EPFO’s payroll data for Oct’20 showed that net additions eased to 0.72mn from 1.11mn in Sep’20.

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21-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Market Outlook: Year of rollercoaster ride

2020 was one of the worst years for global economy but one of the best years for NASDAQ (5th highest since inception).

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21-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-on sentiment improves

Global yields and equities rose on the back of US stimulus deal, launch of vaccine and US FOMC’s upward revision to growth and inflation.

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21-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre has allowed 5 states to borrow additional Rs 167bn from the market as they have implemented the Ease of Doing Business reforms.

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18-Dec-20

BOB Economics | December MPC Minutes: Balancing growth and inflation

MPC members stated that growth has surprised positively.

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18-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre’s net direct tax collections improved in Q3FY21 as it fell by only 13% till 16 Dec 2020 versus 25% drop seen between Apr-Sep’20.

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17-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 116bn and stood at Rs 27.8tn for the week ending 11 Dec 2020.

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16-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Final print for India’s trade data shows that exports fell by 8.7% in Nov’20 compared with 9.1% drop estimated in preliminary estimates and 5.1% decline in Oct’20.

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15-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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14-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Inflation: Food inflation moderates, core persists

CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).

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14-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Core inflation drives WPI higher

WPI inched up to a 9-month high of 1.6% in Nov’20 from 1.5% in Oct’20 led by manufactured inflation which increased to 3% in Nov’20 (2.1% in Oct’20).

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14-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation, RBI minutes in focus

10Y yield in UK and US declined due to uncertainty over Brexit and US stimulus.

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14-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per AMFI data, net inflow under mutual funds moderated to Rs 272bn in Nov’20 from Rs 986bn in Oct’20.

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11-Dec-20

BOB Economics | IIP: Broad based expansion in industrial activity

India’s industrial output surprised positively in Oct’20 at 3.6% from an increase of 0.5% in Sep’20.

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11-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s Covid curve tapering off

India’s Covid-19 curve is showing signs of tapering off with 7-day average additions of 50k compared with a 30-day and 90-day average of 56k and 65k respectively.

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11-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre has recently released the 6th instalment of GST compensation cess of Rs 60bn thus taking the total transfer to states to Rs 360bn.

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10-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 26.5bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 4 Dec 2020.

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09-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moved up to 7.4% as on 8 Dec 2020 compared to 6.6% in the previous week.

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08-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Domestic LPG price (non-subsidised) has risen by Rs 50 to Rs 644/cylinder in Dec’20.

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07-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US 10Y moves closer to 1%

US 10Y yield increased by 13bps on the back of hope of US fiscal stimulus.

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07-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s data showed that credit demand was stable at 5.8% for the fortnight ending 20 Nov 2020.

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04-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI revises its growth and inflation estimates

While revising GDP growth to (-) 7.5% from (-) 9.5% earlier, MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and next financial year to support growth.

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04-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Services activity in India continued to expand as PMI reading was at 53.7 in Nov’20 from 54.1 in Oct’20.

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03-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit expands as exports slip

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 10bn in Nov’20 from US$ 8.7bn in Oct’20 led by moderation in exports and stable non-oil-non-gold imports.

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03-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports fell further in Nov’20 by 9.1% versus 5.1% drop in Oct’20. Oil exports fell much sharply by 63.8% (52% decline in Oct’20).

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02-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI slipped to a 3-month low of 56.3 in Nov’20 from 58.9 in Oct’20.

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01-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to maintain status quo

US$ weakened by 0.7% in the week with positive development on vaccine.

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01-Dec-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

The hike in petrol and diesel prices continued, with petrol prices up by Rs 1.28/lt and diesel prices by Rs 1.96/lt since 19 Nov 2020.

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27-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Q2FY21 GDP: GDP throws a positive surprise

From a decline of 23.9% in Q1, India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% in Q2FY21.

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27-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI governor in his recent address highlighted that the sustainability of demand post festive season is to be carefully watched, as downside risks to growth still persist.

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26-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) fell by Rs 69bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 20 Nov 2020.

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25-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

High-frequency data for India shows that post festival demand, there is marginal easing in trading activity observed.

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24-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moderated to 6.4% as on 23 Nov 2020 against 6.7% in the previous week.

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23-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on India’s Q2 GDP print

Rising global Covid-19 cases (4.2mn) drove global 10Y yields lower.

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23-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s data showed that credit demand picked up to 5.7% for the fortnight ending 6 Nov 2020 compared with 5.1% in Oct’20.

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20-Nov-20

BOB Economics | GDP Update: India on recovery path

High frequency indicators show an underlying revival in economic activity led by private sector.

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20-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Domestic trade activity in India continues to rise steadily as visible in rail freight movement which rose by 13.6% during 1-10 Nov 2020.

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19-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government has received Rs 724.8bn from 45,855 cases under the tax dispute resolution scheme ‘Vivad se Vishwas’.

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18-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s data showed that state borrowings in FYTD21 are up by 49% compared with last year and stood at Rs 4.48tn as of 17 Nov 2020.

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17-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equities surge higher on vaccine hopes

Global recovery strengthened further as seen in China’s industrial production and Japan’s Q3 GDP.

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17-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has signed an agreement with World Bank for providing advisory services on asset monetization.

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16-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Core drives WPI higher, food moderates

WPI rose to 1.5% in Oct’20 (1.3% in Sep’20) led by core which increased to 1.7% in Oct’20 from 1% in Sep’20.

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13-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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12-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Government Stimulus: Stimulus to boost growth

Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.

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12-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Growth improves; inflation firms up

Industrial production rebounded sharply to 0.2% in Sep’20 from a decline of 7.4% in Aug’20 with improvement across sectors.

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12-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to boost manufacturing, government has approved Production Linked Incentives (PLI) for 10 sectors including white goods, auto and battery manufacturing.

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11-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Noting a robust turnaround, India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 22.5% on a YoY basis in the period 1-7 Nov 2020 following a decline of 5.4% in Oct’20.

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10-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, cargo traffic in India’s 12 major ports fell for the 7th straight month by 1.2% in Oct'20 from a decline of 1.9% in Sep'20.

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09-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gains traction

India’s economic recovery gained steam as seen in improvement in GST collections, electicity demand, vehicle sales, freight movement and PMIs.

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09-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets rejoice US election results

Global equity markets surged as results of US Presidential elections indicated a change in guard.

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09-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s fortnightly statistics showed that credit demand edged down to 5.1% as of 23 Oct 2020 from 5.7% in the previous fortnight.

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06-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI announced the new Co-Lending Model (CML) to improve credit flow to the underserved section of the economy at an affordable cost.

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05-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI expanded for the first time in over eight months to 54.1 in Oct’20 from 49.8 in Sep’20.

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04-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and Rate Outlook: Rates seem to have bottomed out

Forward guidance by global central banks implies low yields and negative real global yields in the medium-term.

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04-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports fell by 5.4% in Oct’20 from an increase of 6% in Sep’20 as per preliminary data.

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03-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Domestic demand improves in Oct’20

India’s trade deficit expanded to a 7-month high of US$ 8.8bn in Oct’20 from US$ 2.7bn in Sep’20 led by higher gold and non-oil-non-gold imports.

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03-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI accelerated for the 3rd straight month to a 13-year high of 58.9 in Oct’20 from 56.8 in Sep’20.

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02-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: PMIs, US Fed and US elections

Global equity markets and yields fell on the back of rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and US.

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02-Nov-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections for Sep’20 rose by 10.2% on YoY basis to Rs 1tn from Rs 955bn in Aug’20 (3.9% increase).

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29-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 81bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 23 Oct 2020.

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28-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s study on state budgets indicates that while states had projected fiscal deficit for FY21 at 2.8% (of GSDP), it is expected at 4.6% instead.

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27-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Government of India is expected to announce another round of fiscal stimulus around the festive season.

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26-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI’s bond purchases drive yields lower

Despite rising Covid-19 cases in Europe, US and UK yields inched up on the back of impending stimulus in US and Brexit deal.

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26-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to meet the GST compensation cess gap, GoI has transferred Rs 60bn to 16 states under the 1st tranche of Rs 1.1tn payment to be made.

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23-Oct-20

BOB Economics | October MPC Minutes: Emphasis on forward guidance

MPC members favoured forward guidance on accommodative conditions to anchor market expectations of liquidity.

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23-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to CMIE data, rural unemployment rose to 7.93% in the week ending 4 Oct 2020, compared with only 4.73% in the previous week.

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22-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 47bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 16 Oct 2020.

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21-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to EPFO’s data, it added 0.67mn new subscribers to its subscriber base in Aug’20 compared with 0.65mn added in Jul’20.

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20-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As part of Atma Nirbhar Bharat package, GoI has proposed to cover 25mn farmers under the Kisan Credit Card scheme with a credit boost of Rs 2tn through the saturation drive.

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19-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India decides to borrow more

Fresh restrictions in Europe to curb COVID-19, uncertainty around US fiscal stimulus, drop in Germany’s ZEW sentiment index and higher US jobless claims led to risk-off driving global yields and equities lower and US$ higher.

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19-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s rail freight data shows continued improvement in domestic trade activity in Oct’20 so far.

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16-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre has increased its borrowing program for FY21 as it has decided to borrow Rs 1.1tn on behalf of states to meet the GST compensation cess shortfall.

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15-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 21bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 9 Oct 2020.

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14-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI higher

WPI rose to 1.3% in Sep’20 from 0.2% in Aug’20 led by increase in food (6.9% in Sep’20 from 4.1% in Aug’20) and manufactured inflation (1.6% in Sep’20 from 1.3% Aug’20).

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14-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF expects India’s GDP to contract by 10.3% compared with a 4.5% dip estimated earlier.

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13-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has announced a slew of measures like LTC cash voucher, restoring the festival advance scheme for central and state government employees in order to boost demand in the economy.

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12-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation remains uncomfortably high, IIP improves

India’s industrial recovery continued with a decline of 8% in Aug’20 as against 10.8%.

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12-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI’s moves drive Indian yields lower

Global yields and equities went up with hopes of fresh US fiscal stimulus gaining ground.

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12-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

MPC members unanimously voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and maintain the accommodative stance into the current and next financial year.

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09-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Green shoots emerging

A silver lining seems to be emerging with positive growth visible in exports, auto and electricity output, rural wages, GST collections and rail freight.

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09-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Lender of last resort

MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged.

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09-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY21, estimating a contraction of 9.6% versus 4.5% decline estimated in Jun’20.

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08-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 29bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 2 Oct 2020.

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07-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI improved substantially to 49.8 in Sep’20 from 41.8 in Aug’20.

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06-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has appointed 3 external members to the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI.

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05-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Uphill climb for global recovery

Global manufacturing PMIs and US consumer confidence supported higher global yields.

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05-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections for Aug’20 jumped by 3.9% on YoY basis to Rs 955bn from Rs 864bn in Jul’20 (12% decline).

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03-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports gain traction

India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 2.9bn in Sep’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 as exports rose by 5.3%, first time in 6-months.

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01-Oct-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s eight core output contracted for the 6th straight month to 8.5% in Aug’20 from 8% in Jul’20.

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30-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Centre sticks to its borrowing calendar

Centre has maintained its borrowing plan of Rs 12tn implying gross and net borrowing of Rs 4.25tn and Rs 3.37tn in H2.

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30-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Current account surplus expands

After reporting a current account surplus of US$ 0.6bn in Q4, India reported a surplus of US$ 19.8bn (3.9% of GDP) in Q1FY21 as imports fell more sharply than exports.

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30-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to provide liquidity to States, RBI has decided to continue with the increased WMA limit (of 60%) till Mar’21 from Sep’20 earlier.

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29-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to boost SCBs liquidity, RBI has extended the MSF relaxation till 31 Mar 2021 from 30 Sep 2020 earlier.

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28-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to maintain status quo

Global equities fell and DXY regained strength with European governments imposing fresh restrictions to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

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28-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade at BBB- with stable outlook.

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25-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As announced under the Atama Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, centre has increased the borrowing limits of 5 states (A.P, Telangana, Karnataka, Goa and Tripura) by 0.5% of their GSDP as they have implemented the ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ card scheme.

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24-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 58bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 18 Sep 2020.

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23-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to the first advance estimates, total food grain production in the country during the kharif season is estimated at 144.5mn ton, on the back of normal monsoon.

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22-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has hiked the MSP for Rabi crops for the marketing season (2021-2022) in line with the recommendations of Swaminathan Commission.

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21-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Central Banks on hold, India expands fisc support

Major central banks kept the policy rates on hold with US Fed likely to keep ultra-low rates till 2023.

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21-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves fell by US$ 353mn in the week ended 11 Sep 2020 to US$ 541.7bn.

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18-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Lok Sabha passed the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) and Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill.

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17-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, centre’s direct tax collections are down by ~22.4% in H1FY21 so far (15 Sep 2020) and stand at Rs 2.54tn compared with Rs 3.27tn in the same period last year.

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16-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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15-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit expands on higher gold imports

India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.

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15-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

ADB expects India’s GDP to contract by 9% in FY21 versus 4% decline estimated earlier.

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14-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Inflation: Food inflation moderates, core persists

CPI eased to 6.7% in Aug’20 driven by lower food inflation at 9.1%.

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14-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation turns positive

WPI rose to 0.2% in Aug’20 after declining for 4 straight months (0.6% in Jul’20) led by increase in manufactured inflation.

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14-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns

Global recovery gained steam led by higher exports by China and Taiwan.

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14-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI purchased a record US$ 16bn in Jul20 (net) in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20.

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11-Sep-20

BOB Economics | IIP: IIP improves further

India’s industrial output declined by 10.4% in Jul’20 as against a decline of 15.8% in Jun’20.

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11-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has constituted a three-member expert committee for assessment of relief to bank borrowers.

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10-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government has released Rs 103bn to developers, for expediting infrastructure projects amidst COVID-19.

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09-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is planning to sell about 15-20% of its stake in IRCTC in FY21 through OFS route in tranches.

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08-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gathers steam

India’s manufacturing PMI moved into expansion zone, in-line with other large economies.

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08-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has released the KV Kamath Committee report on resolution framework for COVID-19 related stress.

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07-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields fall after RBI acts

Chinese yields rose as domestic economic activity continues to show improvement.

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07-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Andhra Pradesh retained the top position in the state wise ease of doing business rankings, followed by UP and Telengana.

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04-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI improved in Aug’20 to 41.8 from 34.2 in Jul’20.

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03-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 28 Aug 2020.

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02-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections eased to Rs 864bn from Rs 874bn in Jun’20, registering a 12% YoY decline.

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01-Sep-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre’s fiscal deficit continues to remain elevated as revenue receipts are in free fall while spending is maintained.

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31-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Q1FY21GDP: Investment and consumption drive record fall in GDP

India’s GDP growth in Q1FY21 contracted by 23.9%.

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31-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s GDP and fiscal health in focus

Global 10Y yields went up as macro data showed further improvement in economic activity: China’s industrial profits, US durable goods and new home sales.

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31-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per RBI data, credit demand edged down to 5.5% for the fortnight ending 14 Aug 2020 against 5.7% in Jul’20.

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28-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In the GST council meet the FM informed the states that centre will not able to meet the full demand of GST compensation in FY21.

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27-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 33.8bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 21 Aug 2020.

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26-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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25-Aug-20

BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: RBI expects gradual recovery

RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.

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25-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to Ministry of Finance, post the implementation of GST, tax compliance has improved and average tax rate has been reduced for the system.

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24-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields dip, Indian yields rise

Global yields (ex-India and China) fell after macro data showed global recovery flattening, in particular in Eurozone.

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24-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 2.9bn in the week ended 14 Aug 2020 to US$ 535.3bn.

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21-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

MPC members noted future growth trajectory remains uncertain.

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20-Aug-20

BOB Economics | August MPC Minutes: Rate cut cycle may be behind us

While India’s growth seems to have bottomed out in Q1FY21, growth trajectory still remains uncertain.

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20-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 56bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 14 Aug 2020.

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19-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government has received proposals worth Rs 12tn for the next five years under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

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18-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to provide greater funding to NBFCs, government has decided to expand the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0 by another three months till 19 Nov’20.

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17-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields rise as recovery continues

Worst seems to be over for global economy with Euro Area, Singapore and UK reporting sharp contraction for Q2CY20.

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17-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI approved a transfer of Rs 571.3bn for the accounting year 2019-20 to the government, while maintaining the contingency risk buffer at 5.5%.

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14-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Imports catching up, non-oil exports improve

India’s trade balance slipped into deficit of US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 from a surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20.

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14-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, food inflation soars

WPI contracted by 0.6% in Jul’20 from 1.8% in Jun’20 led by 4.3% increase in food and 0.5% increase in manufactured inflation.

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14-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI purchased net US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20 in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 4.4bn in May’20.

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13-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Inflation: Accelerating inflation, RBI to maintain status quo

CPI inflation accelerated to 6.9% in Jul’20 (6.2% in Jun’20) led by higher food and core inflation.

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13-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 136.2bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ended 7 Aug 2020.

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12-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s auto sales showed improvement as the pace of contraction eased significantly in Jul’20 to 18.6% from 43% in Jun’20.

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11-Aug-20

BOB Economics | IIP: IIP showing signs of recovery

India’s industrial output declined by 16.6% in Jun’20 as against a decline of 33.9% in May’20.

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11-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India to recover with a lag

While global economy is showing signs of expansion with manufacturing and services PMIs above 50, India’s PMIs have decelerated owing to local lockdowns in Jul’20.

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11-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate for the week ending 9 Aug 2020 rose considerably to 8.7% from 7.2% in the previous week.

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10-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery continues

Global yields rose with macro data surprising positively.

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10-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India recently launched the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund worth Rs 1tn to provide support to FPOs, PACs and farmers so as to build community farming assets and post-harvest infrastructure.

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07-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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06-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI allows restructuring while holding rates

MPC unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.

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06-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services activity still remained muted with PMI print at 34.2 in Jul’20 against 33.7 in Jun’20; remaining far below the 50-mark.

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05-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per FCI, a total of 75.9mn MT of foodgrain stock is available; of this 9.5mn MT is required each month under NFSA, PMGKAY and other schemes.

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04-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the 4th straight month to 46 in Jul’20 from 47.2 in Jun’20.

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03-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI decision to guide markets

US yields and US$ fell in the week after a steep contraction in US GDP, falling consumer confidence and Fed’s prediction of weak economic recovery.

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03-Aug-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

GST collections for Jun’20 was recorded at Rs 874bn, down from Rs 909bn for May’20.

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31-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce the dependency on inbound shipments of non-essential items in India, government has imposed restrictions on imports of colour televisions.

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30-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 48bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 24 Jul 2020.

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29-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, railway freight reported its first YoY increase (0.3%) in FY21 on 27 Jul 2020.

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28-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, cabinet has given approval for disinvestment in 22-23 PSUs to meet FY21 target of Rs 2.1tn.

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27-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on Fed

Global economy maintained growth momentum as seen in US home sales and higher flash PMIs.

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27-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s FSR indicated that financial conditions of SCBs have worsened with respect to soundness, liquidity and efficiency parameters in Mar’20 against Sep’19.

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24-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In yet another sign of revival, India’s crude oil processing rose by 10.9% in Jun’20 to 4.29mbpd against 3.87mbpd in May’20.

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23-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 20bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 17 Jul 2020.

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22-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, number of registered companies in the country stands at 2mn as of 30 Jun 2020.

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21-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Pace of contraction in India’s port cargo volumes reduced in Jun’20 to 14.5% from 23.3% in May’20.

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20-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to focus on growth as inflation surprises negatively

China continues to lead global recovery with GDP growth rebounding to 3.2% in Q2CY20 from a decline of 6.8% in Q1.

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20-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s fortnightly data indicates credit growth eased further to 6.1 % as of 3 Jul 2020 from 6.2% in the previous fortnight and 12% in the same period last year.

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17-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, banks have sanctioned Rs 1.23tn of the Rs 3tn Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for MSMEs.

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16-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 124.5bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 10 Jul 2020.

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15-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover, imports falter

India registered a trade surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20, a first in 18-years versus a deficit of US$ 3.1bn in May’20 as exports recovered.

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15-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s auto sales fell by 43% in Jun’20 versus a decline of 84.8% in May’20.

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14-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, but at a slower pace

WPI contracted by 1.8% in Jun’20 from 3.2% in May’20 led by 13.6% decline in fuel and power index in Jun’20 compared with 19.8% in May’20.

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14-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

NSO released India’s CPI data for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20.

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13-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Inflation: CPI surprises negatively led by core

NSO released CPI inflation for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20 data.

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13-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global macros improving despite rising cases

Global equity markets continued upward momentum led by China as economic activity rebounds.

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13-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 versus a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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10-Jul-20

BOB Economics | IIP: First signs of recovery

India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 as against a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.

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10-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, central government is planning a stake sale in Coal India and IDBI bank to raise nearly Rs 200bn in disinvestment proceeds.

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09-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 49.5bn and stood at Rs 26.6tn for the week ending 3 Jul 2020.

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08-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, CPSEs have been tasked by the FM to ensure that 50% of their budgeted capital outlay (Rs 1.66tn) is spent by Q2FY21.

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07-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, central government has extended the 15% spending limit for various departments to Q2FY21 as well.

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06-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Consumption reviving, capex to recover in FY22

India’s economy improved further in Jun’20 as visible in higher filing of GST e-way bills, digital payments, tractor sales and manufacturing PMIs.

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06-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Economic recovery continues despite COVID

Early signs of global recovery are visible with improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs and strong US jobs report.

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06-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 1.3bn in the week ended 26 Jun 2020 compared with a decline of US$ 2.1bn last week.

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03-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, under government’s Atmanirbhar package, banks have sanctioned Rs 629bn to over 7mn Kisan Credit Card (KCC) holders as on Jun’20.

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02-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Latest GST collections and manufacturing PMI indicate that economy is on the path of recovery in May/Jun’20.

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01-Jul-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Central government tax revenues continue to remain weak as direct tax collections fell by 14.6% in FYTD21 (Apr-May) versus 12.1% rise in the same period last year.

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30-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Balance of payments: Current account turns surplus

After a span of 13 years, India reported a current account surplus.

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30-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In view of the current liquidity scenario, RBI has again decided to conduct simultaneous purchase of longer dated securities and sell shorter duration ones, of Rs 100bn each.

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29-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: COVID spike worries markets

Despite global economy gaining positive momentum in the form of improvement in consumer confidence and US home sales, equity markets and yields fell as markets were worried about resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

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26-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: RBI and Banks to finance fiscal deficit

Indian yields have fallen in-line with global yields even as general government issuances are estimated to increase to ~9.5% of GDP.

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26-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to provide a helping hand to non-MSMEs, government is considering a one-time loan restructuring facility especially for those businesses which have been severely hit by the pandemic.

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25-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, led by steep hike in excise duty on petrol and diesel and pick-up in demand, centre’s excise collections have risen to ~Rs 400bn in FYTD21 (Apr-May).

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24-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per World Bank data, India has retained its position as the third largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

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23-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Moody’s has cut India’s growth projection in FY21 and expects GDP to contract by 3.1% against 0.2% estimated earlier.

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22-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets and oil prices resist rising COVID cases

Global short-end yields (apart from Germany) were lower as IMF cautioned of sharper downturn and COVID-19 cases increased.

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22-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has launched Garib Kalyan Rojgaar Abhiyaan to generate employment for migrant workers.

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19-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Outlook on India’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been revised to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ by Fitch ratings, while maintaining rating at ‘BBB-’.

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18-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI as the regulator of HFC’s has proposed certain changes such as providing a formal definition of housing finance (not available under NHB).

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17-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, direct tax collections in Apr-Jun’20 have fallen by 32.8% so far to Rs 927bn versus Rs 1.38tn last year.

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16-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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15-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover faster than imports

India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.

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15-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Lower fuel prices drives sharp reduction in WPI inflation

Headline WPI fell by 3.2% in May’20 led by 19.8% drop in fuel inflation.

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15-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives markets lower

Global yields closed lower after US FOMC painted a dismal picture of recovery for the US economy in CY20.

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15-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 8.2bn to a record-high at US$ 501.7bn in the week ended 5 Jun 2020 compared with an increase of US$ 3.4bn last week.

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12-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Food inflation falls, industrial output contracts sharply

India’s industrial production contracted by 55.5% in Apr’20 on the back of a nationwide lockdown led by 95.7% and 92% reduction in consumer durables and capital goods respectively.

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12-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI sold net US$ 1.1bn in the spot market in Apr’20 compared with US$ 4.1bn sales in Mar’20.

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11-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

OECD in its latest economic outlook has projected India’s GDP to contract sharply by 3.7% in FY21.

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10-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, GST collections have steadily declined in Mar and Apr’20, showing the impact of nationwide lockdown.

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09-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 3.2% in FY21 as lockdown measures to curtail COVID-19 derail economic activity.

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08-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Recovery has begun, normalcy will take time

India’s economy is showing signs of recovery with E-way bills and electricity demand showing signs of improvement from Apr’20 levels.

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08-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets gain as global economies recover

Global economic activity showed signs of improvement with PMIs gaining MoM traction led by China and US.

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08-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has announced establishment of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF).

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05-Jun-20

BOB Economics | May MPC Minutes: Room for another 25bps rate cut

MPC members reduced policy rate by 40bps as the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic economy is far more severe than initially anticipated.

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05-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Central government has released Rs 364bn as GST compensation for states for Dec’19-Feb’20.

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04-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services activity still contracted as visible in the PMI print.

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03-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to support Make in India initiative, India has launched US$ 6.65bn plan to boost electronic manufacturing.

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02-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades India

Moody’s downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with negative outlook on the back of rising fiscal deficits, growth contraction and higher debt levels (30% more than Baa median).

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02-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Moody’s has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to its lowest investment grade for the first time in 22 years.

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01-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Led by nationwide lockdown to curtail the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, India’s infrastructure index contracted to a record low of 38.1% in Apr’20 from a decline of 9% in Mar’20.

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01-Jun-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Better macro prints supported markets

Global macro data showed some improvement with US home sales and EU consumer confidence surprising positively.

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30-May-20

BOB Economics | Fiscal update: FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP

India’s FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP is higher than FY20RE of 3.8%.

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29-May-20

BOB Economics | Q4FY20 GDP: FY20 GDP growth drops; Q4 surprises positively

India’s FY20 growth slipped to 4.2% from 6.1% due to lower consumption and investment demand.

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29-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose by 18% to US$ 73.5bn in FY20 versus US$ 62bn in FY19.

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28-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 221bn and stood at Rs 26.1tn for the week ending 22 May 2020.

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27-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

CBIC has announced that between 8 Apr-24 May 2020, Rs 110.5bn worth GST refunds have been processed.

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26-May-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global data shows world economy improving

Global economy is showing signs of pick-up with flash PMIs showing MoM improvement.

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26-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, direct tax collections in FYTD21 (till 23 May) eased to Rs 916.5bn compared with Rs 1.1tn in the same period last year.

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22-May-20

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI cuts rates, extends measures to ease financial stress

MPC announced another 40bps reduction in policy rate to 4%.

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22-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Central government has sanctioned Rs 920.8bn for transfers to states for Apr-May'20.

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21-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 193.6bn and stood at Rs 25.9tn for the week ended 15 May 2020.

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20-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports are expected to fall by 20% in FY21 (decline of 4.3% in FY20) as per estimates by FIEO.

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19-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

NABARD has disbursed Rs 205bn to cooperative banks and RRBs.

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18-May-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: China expands; US, Europe and India yet to see recovery

US yields closed lower due to poor economic data (retail sales, jobless claims, Fed Chair comments).

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18-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In the last tranche of the fiscal package, the FM announced a 2% rise in state borrowings.

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17-May-20

BOB Economics | Government Stimulus Measures: PSE privatisation, state borrowing raised by 2% of GDP

The FM today announced a 2% increase in states borrowing by Rs 4.28tn to Rs 10.69tn.

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16-May-20

BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Ushering in private investments

The FM today announced measures to 1) Fast Track investments, 2) Open up coal and mining sector to private sector, 3) Privatisation of DISCOMs in UTs, and 4) Boost defence manufacturing and aviation sector.

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15-May-20

BOB Economics | Trade and Government Stimulus Measures: Exports plunge by 60.3%, FM announces agri stimulus

The FM today announced third tranche of 10% stimulus focused on agri sector.

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15-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

The second stimulus was worth Rs 3.2tn, of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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14-May-20

BOB Economics | Government Stimulus Measures: Stimulus for farmers, real estate, migrants and vendors

The second stimulus is worth Rs 3.2tn out of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.

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14-May-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI food and fuel inflation eases

The trend of food, fuel and available categories of manufactured products shows a decline in wholesale inflation.

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14-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As a part of Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, FM has announced Rs 6tn boost for MSMEs, NBFCs and power sector.

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13-May-20

BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Aatmanirbhar package for MSMEs, NBFCs and Power

Honourable PM announced a big bang Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package to stimulate the economy and give impetus to local manufacturing.

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13-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has announced stimulus of Rs 20tn (10% of GDP) to combat the economic crisis.

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12-May-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Growth contracts, food inflation rises

Even with data capturing challenges, underlying trend of higher food prices and lower production (IIP contracted by 16.7%) has been captured.

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12-May-20

BOB Economics | FY21 GDP Update: Charting India’s growth trajectory

An estimated 73% of India’s economy is open now compared with 30% in Apr’20.

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12-May-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response

India’s growth bottomed out in Apr’20 with 70% of the economy in lockdown.

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12-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has released Rs 62bn to 14 States as second monthly instalment for revenue deficit grants.

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11-May-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India steps up borrowing for stimulus

Global yields steepened with US unemployment rate increasing to 14.7% and disappointing US factory and Germany’s exports data.

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11-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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08-May-20

BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government alters H1 borrowing calendar

Central government has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.

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08-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 122bn and stood at Rs 25.3tn for the week ending 1 May 2020.

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06-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 2) & Rs 13 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 5) respectively.

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05-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI reading fell sharply to 27.4 in Apr’20 compared with 51.8 in Mar’20.

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04-May-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Central Banks extend support as data disappoints

Oil prices rose and DXY fell as global risk sentiment improved.

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04-May-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, total GST collections for Mar’20 fell to Rs 283bn versus Rs 976bn in Feb’20 and Rs 1.13tn in Mar’19.

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30-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 166.6bn and stood at Rs 25.2tn for the week ending 24 Apr 2020.

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29-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

ADB has announced an assistance package of US$ 1.5bn for India in order to counter the effects of COVID-19 on health, welfare and overall economy.

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28-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3.1mn as of 27 Apr 2020 versus 2.5mn last week.

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27-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Fed, ECB meet in focus

The week saw negative oil prices, a first as global supply outran storage due to demand compression.

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27-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3mn as of 26 Apr 2020, yet the pace of increase is declining. On a daily basis, new cases in US rose the most by 26,730, followed by Spain at 2,870 and Italy at 2,324.

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24-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government has decided to amend the insolvency law and suspend sections 7, 9 and 10 for 6 months-1 year.

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23-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 196.3bn and stood at Rs 25tn for the week ending 17 Apr 2020.

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22-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is likely to announce another stimulus package amounting to Rs 6-8tn (3-4% of GDP).

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21-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.5mn as of 20 Apr 2020.

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20-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Oil falls, equities recover

Global equity markets closed higher on the hope of successful treatment to Covid-19 to hit the markets soon enough.

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20-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.4mn as of 19 Apr 2020.

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17-Apr-20

BOB Economics | RBI Measures: RBI strikes again

Following up on measures announced on 27 March, RBI today announced 1) 25bps reduction in reverse repo rate, 2) TLTRO of Rs 500bn for NBFCs, 3) Higher WMA limits for states, 4) Standstill on asset classification norms, and 5) Scope for further reduction in policy rates.

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17-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.2mn as of 16 Apr 2020.

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16-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports fell steeply in Mar’20 by 34.6% versus an increase of 2.9% in Feb’20.

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15-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade contraction shows impact of lockdown

India’s trade deficit remained steady at US$ 9.8bn in Mar’20 on a MoM basis.

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15-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI slips

WPI inflation moderated to a 4-month low of 1% in Mar’20 from 2.3% in Feb’20.

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15-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2mn as of 14 Apr 2020. However the pace of increase is slowing with daily fresh cases rising by only 4% this week vs an average increase of 8% last week.

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13-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Inflation: Inflation falls, will ease further

CPI moderated to a 4-month low of 5.9% in Mar’20 led by food inflation.

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13-Apr-20

BOB Economics | MPC Minutes: Growth concerns warranted a larger cut

MPC members voted unanimously to cut rates and keep an accommodative stance.

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13-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets hopeful of a flattening COVID curve

Globally risk sentiment improved with new projections showing US deaths may be lower than worst case scenario anticipated earlier.

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13-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.8mn as of 12 Apr 2020 (1.04 times increase vs last week).

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09-Apr-20

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth rebounds in Feb, will slip in March

Industrial growth rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in Feb’20 from 2.1% in Jan’20.

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09-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: A few more weeks before visibility improves

With 70% of economy in a lockdown, we see sharp reduction in domestic consumption and investment demand.

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09-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.5mn as of 8 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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08-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.4mn as of 7 Apr 2020 (1.3 times increase vs last week).

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07-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets rejoice fewer virus cases

World added fewer cases of COVID-19 in the last few days which resulted in a rebound in equity markets.

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07-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.3mn as of 6 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).

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03-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.02mn as of 2 Apr 2020 (1.8 times increase vs last week).

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01-Apr-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 856,581 as of 31 Mar 2020 (2.1 times increase vs last week).

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31-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government sticks to borrowing calendar

Centre’s H1FY21 gross borrowing is pegged at Rs 4.88tn in H1FY21 compared with Rs 4.25tn in H1FY20.

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31-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 7,84,395 as of 30 Mar 2020 (2.2 times increase vs last week).

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30-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Early indicators point to sharp dip in growth

Global markets responded positively to US fiscal stimulus.

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30-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 703,700 as of 29 Mar 2020 (2.3 times increase vs last week).

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27-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI takes a bold move, more to follow

With 70% of economy in lockdown, MPC members reduced repo and reverse repo rate by 75bps and 90bps respectively.

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27-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases increased globally to 514,999 as of 26 Mar 2020 (3.4 times increase vs last week).

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26-Mar-20

BOB Economics | COVID-19 Impact: Pandemic to stunt global growth, delay India’s recovery

With complete lockdown, ~70% of economic activity — investment, exports and discretionary consumption — has come to a halt.

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26-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and have risen to 462,346 as of 26 Mar 2020 (2.8 times increase vs last week).

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24-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and rose 3.5 times to 368,227 for the week ended 23 Mar 2020.

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23-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: COVID-19 cases jump, so does volatility

A 3 times increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases to 152,366, drove Dow down by 17.1%.

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23-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally. For the week ended 22 Mar 2020, number of COVID-19 globally increased 2 times to 318,297.

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20-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Ministry of Finance is considering a Rs 100-200bn stimulus package to support the aviation sector.

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19-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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19-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.

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18-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre’s direct tax collections on FYTD basis reached Rs 8.6tn as of Feb’20 vs FY20RE of Rs 11.7tn.

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17-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to boost durable liquidity to combat the impact of COVID-19, RBI has announced that it will conduct LTROs in multiple tranches at policy rate, amounting to Rs 1tn.

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16-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI eases

WPI inflation edged down to 2.3% in Feb’20 from 3.1% in Jan’20 led by food inflation (7.8% in Feb’20 vs 11.5% in Jan’20).

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16-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI likely to ease by 50bps

In a surprise move, US Fed reduced policy rate by 1% and announced US$ 700bn of bond purchases.

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16-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

GST council has hiked rates on mobile phones to 18% from 12%, in order to correct the inverted duty structure.

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13-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit narrows

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 9.9bn in Feb’20 from US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 as oil, electronic and capital goods imports came-off on MoM basis.

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13-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

CPI inflation in India edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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12-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Favourable outlook on CAD

India’s CAD fell to US$ 1.4bn (0.2% of GDP) in Q3FY20 from US$ 6.5bn in Q2FY20 (0.9% of GDP) on the back of lower trade deficit.

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12-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation falls, growth rebounds

CPI inflation edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.

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12-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI’s rate cut to support growth

While domestic manufacturing and services sector PMIs have risen to 8-year and 7-year highs respectively, global PMIs have shrunk led by China.

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12-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in Jan’20 in the spot market (highest in 5 years) vs US$ 4.4bn in Dec’19.

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11-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government may bring down the tax rate on dividend income for domestic investors from 43% to 20% in the highest tax bracket.

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09-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields at all-time low

Global yields fell as markets assess economic impact of COVID-19.

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09-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

The government has sought parliament approval for an additional spending of Rs 540bn in FY20.

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06-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

EPFO has cut interest rate by 15bps to its 7-year low of 8.5% in FY20.

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05-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI rose to 57.5 in Feb’20 from 55.5 in Jan’20.

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04-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 10.7bn in Q3FY20 vs US$ 9.8bn in Q2FY20.

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03-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 54.5 in Feb’20 from 55.3 in Jan’20.

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02-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets jittery as virus spreads

Global markets fell as COVID-19 outbreak spread beyond China to Italy, South Korea and Middle East.

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02-Mar-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s central government fiscal deficit is at 4.3% of GDP (12M trailing basis) in Jan’20 vs FY20 (RE) of 3.8%.

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28-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Q3FY20 GDP: Growth to recover in FY21

India’s GDP and GVA growth moderated to 4.7% and 4.5% in Q3FY20 from a revised growth of 5.1% and 4.9% in Q2.

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28-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, EPFO is considering a 15bps cut in deposit rate to 8.5% for FY20 vs 8.65% in FY19.

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27-Feb-20

BOB Economics | India's Road to Recovery: Stage set for growth rebound

India’s economic slowdown is likely to bottom out in FY20 – we expect growth to tick up to 5.5% in FY21 and 6.2% in FY22 spurred by infrastructure spends, funded by strategic sale and divestment of CPSEs.

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27-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 110bn and stood at Rs 23.6tn for the week ending 21 Feb 2020.

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26-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to NSO report, ESIC added 1.3mn persons as new subscribers in Dec’19 vs 1.5mn persons in Nov’19.

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25-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to news reports, Ministry of Finance is not in favour of postponing the payment of AGR dues of telecom companies beyond the deadline.

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24-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global monetary loosening on the cards

Economic data of Japan, China, Eurozone, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand shows flagging demand due to impact of COVID-19 or tax hike in Japan.

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24-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 92bn and stood at Rs 23.5tn for the week ending 14 Feb 2020.

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20-Feb-20

BOB Economics | February MPC Minutes: Policy space to open in Q3FY21

MPC members noted that economic activity has slowed down since the last policy.

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20-Feb-20

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to 2nd advance estimates, India is expected to clock a record foodgrain production which is 2.4% (291.95mn tonne in AY20) higher than last year.

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