Research Reports

In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes

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The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading

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Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions

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In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%

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Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation

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Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23

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Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic

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Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse

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The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes

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In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23

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WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23

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Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank

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Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort

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The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year

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In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures

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IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023

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In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also

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Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out

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Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession

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Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy

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Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23

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Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year

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Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally

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Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far

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Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation

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Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate

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Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes

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A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate

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Global macro indicators remained mixed

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Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)

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High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed

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Credit growth in India has seen a sharp revival in FY23

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Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term

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Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening

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Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it

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Global economy remains unsettled as it battles the wind of uncertainty posed by geo-political tension and concerns emerging over global growth

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The trajectory of USD/INR in the next year will be determined by both global as well as domestic macro fundamentals

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Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory

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Liquidity has been quite a pertinent issue of late when financial conditions remained stringent on account of tightening policy response to higher inflation

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Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January

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Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance

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Latest US data shows that labour market continues to remain tight with initial jobless claims for the week ending 11 Feb 2023, falling by 1k to 194k

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Dollar rally resumed once again as bets of more Fed rate hikes reemerged.

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US retail sales increased by 3% in Jan’23 (est. 1.9%) compared with a decline of 1.1% in Dec’22

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US CPI data for Jan’23 came in at 6.4% versus est.: 6.2% and 6.5% in Dec’22

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WPI inflation has slumped to 4.7% in Jan’23 (5% Dec’22), on the back by moderation in fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Global markets await US CPI data for Jan’23, which is expected to come in at 6.2% down from 6.5% in Dec’22

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Discomfort again appeared from an elevated CPI print in Jan’23

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IIP growth eased to 4.3% in Dec’22 from 7.3% in Nov’22, led by a sharp moderation in manufacturing

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Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week

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The present financial year has been quite unusual in the sense that consumption kept ticking even with inflation being high as the pent up demand phenomenon played out

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FPI flows into India has largely remained negative this year mirroring a trend seen across EM countries

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Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates

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The Union Budget for FY24 focussed on fiscal consolidation and supporting growth through increased capex spending

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RBI has increased its policy rate by 25bps to 6.5%, taking the cumulative rate hike to 250bps since May’22

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Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year

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Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift

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Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report

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At the beginning of 2023, while there is hope that global economy will slow down less than previously anticipated, however uncertainties still remain

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A changing Fed narrative as well as a global risk-on sentiment explain the rally in global currencies in 2023

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In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps

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In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down

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Budget for FY24 balances between fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment through crowding in, and protecting consumer income from inflationary pressures through tax relief

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Union Budget for FY24 is a continuation of the ideology displayed in earlier budgets and has hence tread on similar lines

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Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress

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This year Economic Survey has presented a holistic picture of the impact of government policies on growth and quality of living and also outlined the path to achieve sustainable 7-8% growth per annum over the medium term

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Global bond yields edged down as markets are now expecting that Fed is probably nearing its terminal rate, as it got breather from softening of core PCE data

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IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier

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Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week

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Markets monitored slew of economic data releases

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With Union budget in focus, and expectations of a higher capital outlay by the central government to boost investment, we here analyse the role of state governments in the overall public sector spending

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Flash PMI readings for Jan’23 of major economies remained in contraction territory

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Despite this being last full budget before the elections, budget for FY24 is unlikely to be a populist one

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Equity market edged up while there was broad sell off in the bond and currency market

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Global macro indicators again provided discomfort with US existing home sales falling by 1.5% to 4.02mn in Dec’22 against 4.08mn in Nov’22

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Signs of slowdown in US economy became more visible with dip in housing starts (1.38 mn, a 5-month low from 1.4 mn in Nov’22) and permits data, following disappointing retail sales and industrial production

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BoJ in its widely anticipated meeting unanimously moved against the tide and continued with the ultra-low rates

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Global leaders at the ongoing WEF at Davos shared concerns that likelihood of global recession remains imminent in CY23, offsetting optimism of China reopening

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WPI inflation slipped down to 5% in Dec’22 from 5.8% in Nov’22

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Less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed owing to easing of CPI print, prompted dollar to drop to its lowest level since Jun’22

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Ahead of the Union Budget there are many conjectures about the disinvestment figure of capital receipts, to get an idea about how the fiscal deficit will be financed

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US inflation declined by 0.1% in Dec’22 (est. 0%) from +0.1% in Nov’22 (MoM)

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Comfort came in from both India’s growth and inflation print

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CPI inflation in China accelerated to 1.8% in Dec’22 (est. 1.8%) from 1.6% in Nov’22, led by higher food prices

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Bolstering the case of a global recession, World Bank slashed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 3% earlier

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Increased expectations of a softer stance from the Fed drove global markets

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Despite an uncertain global macros, FSR highlighted that Indian economy has remained fairly resilient

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US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in Dec’22, slowing from 256,000 additions in Nov’22

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7% in FY23 growth from 8.7% in FY22

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With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals

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Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22

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The New Year has started with positive news emerging on the investment side

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US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth

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Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy

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As 2022 ends economic challenges stand ready for major global economies

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Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well

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In Dec’22, bond yields globally changed direction and went for an upswing as Federal Reserve now expects a higher terminal rate at 5.1%

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In 2022, INR depreciated by 10.1% led by a rally in dollar

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China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22

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Jobless claims data in the US remained in line with expectation, despite remaining higher than previous week

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In lacklustre trading week, global markets remained cautious over impact of China’s reopening

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Global markets continued to remain cautious over China’s reopening and its spill over impact

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Global markets got breather from China’s removal of Covid-19 restrictions for inbound travellers

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Asian markets were rattled over news reports that majority of China’s cities are predicting a Covid-19 peak in Jan’23

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Robust economic data from the US including revision of US GDP for Q3CY22 upwards, lower jobless claims raised likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed

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Global market digested mixed news of upbeat US consumer confidence, corporate earnings and subdued home sales data

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While the size of the IPO market remains small in CYTD22 so far at ~Rs 55,000 crore versus Rs 1.2 lakh crore

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Global economy has been witnessing upheavals due to uncertainty posed by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict which resulted in supply constraints thus hampering global value chains

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Finally leaving the divergence path, BoJ joined the wagon along with other global central banks after it shocked the global market by widening the long term yield control thereby allowing long term rates to rise more

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In Sep’19, the Union Government in a surprise move slashed corporate tax rate on both existing and new domestic manufacturing units

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CY22 has been a tumultuous year

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Growing risk of recession continued to weigh in on investors as they began the pre-holiday week with early signs of economic softness adding to the negative sentiments

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Fears of global economic slowdown resurfaced to the shore once again after global Central Banks kept their foot firm on the rate hike pedal

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When conjecturing the direction of central bank policy rate, we all know that inflation is important as they have a mandate to target this variable

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Both ECB and BoE hiked policy rates by 50bps, in line with expectations

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Driven by a sharper than expected moderation is US CPI, dollar eased, leading to gains in most major currencies

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US Fed raised rates by an expected 50bps

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WPI inflation has slumped to 5.8% in Nov’22 (8.4% Oct’22), on the back of broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Markets cheered softer than expected inflation print from the US, which suggests that the terminal Fed rate may not be as high as expected earlier

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Central government has recently presented the first batch of supplementary grants

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Markets remained rather subdued awaiting US inflation report and Fed policy outcome

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India’s headline inflation cooled off to an 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Oct’22

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There is often discussion on whether or not monetary transmission percolates to the real sector of the economy through change in the pace of growth in credit

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Data showed that while PPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.3%in Nov’22 (same as Oct’22), it increased more than market estimates of 0.2%, on a MoM basis

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Risks of a global recession have increased, as shown by macro data points from both US (housing sector) and China (trade, production, PMIs)

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Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22

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High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week

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RBI’s policy remains in line with expectation

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Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit

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Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments

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The credit policy to be announced on the 7th of December is important for several reasons

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A nagging issue when conducting monetary policy is to ascertain whether or not the transmission mechanism is effective

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Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k

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Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns

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Growth in Bank credit has accelerated during the financial year which is a positive sign of economic activity picking up though banks are challenged by a slower growth in deposits

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Dollar demand waned and other global currencies edged up as Fed Chair hinted at tapering the pace of rate hikes starting from Dec’22

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Global bond yields broadly went into a downswing in Nov’22, a situation not seen in the past few months

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Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias

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On the back of base effect, India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 (13.5% in Q1)

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Global macro indicators showed signs of stress

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Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level

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Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions

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Dovish signals by Fed pushed global indices higher

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India’s trade deficit in FYTD23 has surged to US$ 175bn as of Oct’22 compared with US$ 94bn in FYTD22, driven by faster pace of import growth (due to revival in domestic activity and higher commodity prices)

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Interest rate cycle has taken a reversal if we compare H1 of FY23 to H1 of FY22.

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Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well

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The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases

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A rebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions

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Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments

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Fed’s James Bullard advocated for more rate hikes stating that the rate hikes so far “had only limited effect on observed inflation”

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Our analysis of the financial performance of an aggregate sample of 1,917 companies shows that net sales continue to increase, despite witnessing slight moderation

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Data from US painted a mixed picture

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In further signs that inflationary pressures in the US may have peaked, US PPI rose less than expected in Oct’22

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Buoyed by hopes of a likely Fed pivot, global currencies appreciated against the dollar in Nov’22

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Global markets reacted to comments from Fed’s Christopher Wallace who cautioned the “endpoint” of rates is still “a ways off”

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Headline CPI moderated to 6.8% in Oct’22 from 7.4% in Sep’22, led by food, fuel and core inflation

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WPI cools off further (5th consecutive month) to 8.4% in Oct’22(10.7% Sep’22), supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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IMF recently warned of a gloomier outlook for the world economy than was anticipated in the WEO (Oct’22)

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Industrial growth increased by 3.1% in Sep’22 (-0.7% in Aug’22)

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US CPI for Oct’22 fell to a 9-month low of 0.4%, lower than estimated 0.6% and also down from upwardly revised 0.6% in Sep’22

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With rising Covid-19 cases in China, and PPI falling for the 1st time in 2 years, fears of global growth slowdown have increased

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Latest global macro prints further indicate that there might be an impending global growth slowdown

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Stubbornly high inflation print worldwide has nudged global central banks on rate hike spree

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After keeping rates stagnant for almost 2-years, the government recently announced a hike in interest rates for small savings scheme

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Global equities, currencies, and bond yields ended higher

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Net sales of companies remained robust, despite slight moderation in Q2FY23 compared to the same period of previous year

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Often when we talk of supply chain bottleneck, an indicator which comes across our mind is freight cost

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Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated

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US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08

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Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision

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In the given landscape, the Central Bank has been on policy tightening spree with liquidity crunched up

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RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Sep’22

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Global bond market was in a trap trying to untangle growth-inflation dynamics

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INR depreciated by 0.5% in the last fortnight even as DXY retreated from a 20-year high

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Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected

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Inflation in Europe indicates that prices continue to remain elevated in Oct’22 in both Germany (10.4% versus 10%) and France (6.2% versus 5.6%)

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US GDP rose more than expected in Q3CY22 to 2.6% (est. +2.3%), ending two consecutive quarters of negative growth

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It has been a matter of debate whether Bank deposits are still the preferred choice of instrument of financial savings

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US housing market showed signs of stress as high interest rates start to bite

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Flash composite PMIs of UK (21-month low), Eurozone (23-month low) and US (2-month low) signal further moderation in economic activity

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Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher

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In the current fiscal year, we have noticed that there are a number of states which have been consistently using RBI’s cash flow management facilities in order to meet their fiscal commitments

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US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts

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Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22)

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UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green

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Macro data from the US reinstated market expectations of a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next meeting

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On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet

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WPI for Sep’22 eased to 18-month low of 10.7% from 12.4% in Aug’22, supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China

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Headline CPI rose to 7.4% in Sep’22 from 7% in Aug’22, led by food and core inflation

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While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22)

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Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated

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Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions

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With major Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) on course to continue hiking rates aggressively, global yields have inched up and fears of global recession have increased

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After keeping repo rate unchanged at a record low of 4% for 2 years, RBI announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate in May’22

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There could be some good news based on the new investment announcements made by companies in the first half of the year

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 29k to 219k (est.: 205k) for the week ended 1 Oct 2022

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Macro prints for the US indicate that economy is not slowing as much as feared

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon has been above normal and stands at 6% above LPA at the end of the monsoon period for this year (2022).

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Global manufacturing activity weakened further as indicated by muted PMI prints in US, Eurozone, Japan and India

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There is considerable euphoria relating to consumption, and the relentlessly high GST collection numbers is a reflection of this phenomenon

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Major global Central Banks have announced steep policy hikes in Sep’22, and have vowed to remain hawkish as long as inflation levels remains elevated

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Financial tightening continued globally which led to sell-off in the bond market

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The last fortnight was marked by sharp volatility in the global markets, with the foreign exchange market being particularly badly hit

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Inflation remains an ongoing concern with US core PCE deflator inching up by 0.6% (est.: 0.5%) in Aug’22 from 0% in Jul’22, and CPI in Eurozone rising to 10% (est.: 9.7%) from 9.1% in Jul’22

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RBI’s policy was in line with expectations

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US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market

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BoE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks

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A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 30 Sep 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 50bps

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Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes

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Consumption, with a major share in GDP is an important indicator when talking about how growth has fared

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Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession

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Global currencies depreciated sharply yesterday amidst a hawkish commentary from Fed

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Global Central Banks sprung in action as synchronized monetary tightening was noted across the globe, with other Central Banks catching up to US Fed

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US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%

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TBill yields are witnessing quite a bit of volatility off late

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The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 7% above LPA as of 19 Sep 2022

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Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe

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Dollar continued its upward momentum with the DXY index hovering close to a 20-year high

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World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation

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Fuel taxes have been a contentious issue in India especially at a time when inflation has been increasing

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Global currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy

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Global markets remained cautious tracking major macro data releases of different economies

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India has the second-largest telecom market in the world with the country registering a strong subscriber base over the last decade

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WPI for Aug’22 has come in at 12.4%, down from the peak of 13.9% in Jul'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis

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Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22)

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Headline CPI rose to 7% in Aug’22 from 6.7% in Jul’22. Food inflation rose sharply to 7.6% from 6.7% in Jul’22 led by vegetables, fruit and milk and pulses

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2021 was the year for the equity market where we witnessed high IPO issuances as companies accessed this avenue for raising funds

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Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India)

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 5% above LPA as of 8 Sep 2022

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ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record

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US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth

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With the growing importance of investment for higher GDP growth, there is an urgent need for alternative sources of financing; and corporate bonds market can play an important role here

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Last month, major market mover has been the Jackson Hole Symposium

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US’ Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7

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Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22

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The study is based on IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators database

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US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est. 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k

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Following the statements by major central bankers at Jackson Hole, it is expected that global monetary conditions will continue to tighten, until inflation is brought down

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US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 232,000 suggesting continued labour market strength

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown steepest increase, post Jackson Hole conference

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Global markets remained volatile amidst increased fears of a global recession

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In CY22 so far, we have observed that Indian equity markets (both Sensex and Nifty) have performed relatively better than other major global equity markets

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Volatility returned to the global markets this week driven largely by a more hawkish than expected commentary from the Fed Chair

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Global markets remained volatile following Fed Chair’s speech which was more hawkish than market expectations

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Fed Chair in a highly anticipated speech hinted at further rate hikes to curb inflation, while acknowledging that this may translate into slower growth and softer labour-market conditions

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In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY22 and FY23, we selected a sample of 21 major states for which the data was readily available

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Investors are cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 9% above LPA as of 24 Aug 2022

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Growth and inflationary concerns continued to bother global economy

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The real estate sector plays an important role in the economy, especially true for a developing economy like India with a huge population, implying an ever increasing demand for housing

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Flash PMI readings reflected muted economic activity in the US (composite reading 27-month low) and Eurozone (18-month low)

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India’s economy has grown by 8.7% in FY22 after contracting by 6.6% in FY21

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Global equity and currency indices continued to slide amidst energy woes in Europe

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Investors are anticipating hawkish comments from Fed Chair at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium

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IMD had predicted the second half of the South-West monsoon will continue to receive normal rainfall, same as the first half

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Led by uncertainty over the pace of future rate hike by Fed, kept the investors on the edge as they looked for further cues

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We have analysed the financial performance of 35 banks of which 12 are Public, 19 Private Sector Banks (PVBs) and remaining 4 are Small Finance Banks

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After a rather volatile period of 2 months, the global currency markets attained some semblance of stability in the first fortnight of August

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Investors monitored US Fed minutes which signalled that Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in order to rein in inflation

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Construction of US housing starts dropped to its lowest level since Feb’21 to 1.44mn units in Jul’22 from 1.55mn units in Jun’22, signalling the impact of the soaring mortgage rates

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Headline CPI cooled off to 6.9% in Jul’22 from 7% in Jun’22

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As South-West monsoon picked up pace, resulting in cumulative rainfall of 8% above LPA as of 12 Aug 2022

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Following the dip in US CPI, recent data shows that US PPI also cooled off in Jul’22

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US CPI rose by 8.5% in Jul’22 versus est.: 8.7% and 9.1% in Jun’22, supported by ~20% decline in gasoline prices

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In its latest policy, RBI hiked repo rate by 50bps taking the cumulative rate hike in repo rate to 140bps in the current cycle

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We have in this study examined financial performance of 3180 companies (excluding financial companies) and noted the trend in interest coverage ratio defined as Operating profit to Interest

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Investors cautiously await US CPI print due later in the day today, which is expected to have eased to 8.7% in Jul’22 from 9.1% in Jun’22

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Better than expected macro prints in US, Europe and Asia boosted investor sentiments (yields and crude closed higher)

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Advancement of South-West monsoon has resulted in cumulative rainfall at 6% above LPA as of 5 Aug 2022

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RBI continued with hawkish policy as repo rate was hiked (3rd time in a row) by 50bps and is back to the pre-pandemic level

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Bank of England (BoE) raised policy rates by an expected 50bps (biggest rate hike since CY95), as it attempts to tame skyrocketing inflation

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Strong macro data from the US lifted market sentiments globally

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It has been observed that global monetary policy rates tend to move in tandem, with the US Fed generally leading the global rate cycle

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Possibility of an escalation in US-China conflict amidst US House of Representative Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, impacted investor sentiments

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Fears of a global recession surfaced again as PMIs showed moderation in manufacturing activity in Europe, US and China amidst muted demand and high inflation

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South-West monsoon has registered above normal rainfall at 8% (above LPA) till 31 Jul 2022

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High frequency indicators (PMIs, consumer/business sentiment index) in US, China and Eurozone are pointing towards slowdown in economic activity

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have moderated in the current fortnight with Germany and US 10Y yield falling as much as 32 and 27bps respectively

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Global currencies edged up against a weaker dollar

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Euro Area GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2CY22 (QoQ) beating expectations of a 0.2% increase

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South-West monsoon picked up pace and registered above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 29 Jul 2022

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Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward

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FY22 was a year when the economy got back on its feet

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In line with market expectations, US Fed hiked policy rate by 75 bps in its latest meeting

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In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps

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Investment climate in India in Q1FY23 started on a weaker tone with data pointing towards sharp drop in new project announcements relative to Q4FY22.

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After recovering quickly in 2021 from the pandemic induced downturn in CY20, the global economy is on the path of uncertainty and a slowdown in CY22 and CY23

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IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”

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With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 11% above LPA till 25 Jul 2022

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FY23 has begun on a rather sombre note for the Indian economy with mixed signals

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After sharp increase in global commodity prices, post the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, prices have witnessed a dip in the last month

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Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50-75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check

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Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge

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UK’s CPI print rose to its fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in Jun’22, on YoY basis, against expectation of 9.3% and 9.1% in May’22, led by food and fuel

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Markets remained cautious awaiting ECB’s policy decision where even a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out considering the Jun’22 CPI inflation print is still elevated at 8.6%

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INR continued to hit fresh record low and just shy of the US$ 80/bbl mark

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown moderation across the board as recession fears outweighed inflationary concerns

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Macro prints in the US remained mixed with retail sales gaining ground and industrial production remaining muted in Jun’22

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With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 14% above LPA till 15 Jul 2022

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Global currencies depreciated against the dollar as a hotter than expected US inflation report drove the currency higher

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Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown

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WPI for Jun'22 has come in at 15.2%, down from the peak of 15.9% in May'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets

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Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today

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Headline CPI remained sticky at 7% in Jun’22 and ending Q1FY23 at 7.3% against RBI’s estimate of 7.3%

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The most notable fact off late has been depreciating INR which is touching record low every other day

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In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK

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US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed

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Government of India in Jun’22 had hiked the MSP of Kharif crops with the objective to provide remunerative prices and encourage crop diversification

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Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment

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US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth

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Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession

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Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation

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Fears of slowdown in global growth have intensified over the past month as multiple high frequency indictors are showing strains of stress (PMIs, commodity prices)

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Increasing risks of global recession drove global currencies lower

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Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies

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Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks

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Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets

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Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet

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Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed

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Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued

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FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times

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Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown

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The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy

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Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage

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US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22

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Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22

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Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22

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Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception

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With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards

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US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar

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Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks

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Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22

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Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength

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Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation

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Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base

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As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81

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India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect

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With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance

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ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22

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After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%

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RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns

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World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier

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We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)

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Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps

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China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction

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Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike

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With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated

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Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

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With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated

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Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge

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Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%

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Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21

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EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia

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Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting

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International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia

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Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings

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Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services

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PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth

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US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory

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Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation

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External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs

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Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis

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According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years

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Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices

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Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)

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Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21

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Global markets reacted to macro prints (US retail sales and industrial production) and US Fed Chair Powell’s speech

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DXY continued to hover around a 20-year high in May’22 amidst safe-haven demand as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by Fed

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Investors remained concerned about global economic recovery which remains fragile as inflationary pressure continue to build on globally

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 20.1bn in Apr’22 from US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22

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Rising fuel prices in India has led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control

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Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide

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India’s CPI rose to 7.8% in Apr’22 from 7% in Mar’22, reaching the highest level since May’14

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New project announcements in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly to Rs 6.2 lakh crore in FY22 versus Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY20

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Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked

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Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions

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Globally central banks are faced with the dilemma of high inflation and low growth

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Concerns over global growth drove global markets

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FPIs play an important role in the economy in terms of providing support to the equity and debt market besides adding strength to the foreign capital flows

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Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth

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Investors continued to monitor central bank decisions globally

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In line with expectations, Fed hiked the policy rate by 50bps, biggest jump in over 22-years and also announced measures to reduce its US$ 9tn balance sheet starting next month

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RBI clearly surprised markets by going for a rather abrupt 40bps hike in policy rate, signalling withdrawal of accommodation and also hiking the CRR rate by 50bps

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Global market is eyeing Fed’s policy decision and anticipating a rate hike of 50bps and also balance sheet reduction

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Employment is one of the leading indicators of growth as an increase in the same is a signal that more jobs are being created which will generate income and demand

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War between Russia and Ukraine continues to keep global commodity prices elevated

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Global currencies depreciated against the dollar in the last fortnight

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Global markets remained rattled by the stagflation like situation worldwide

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US GDP contracted unexpectedly by 1.4% in Q1CY22 (est. +1%) on the back of rising Covid-19 cases and waning fiscal support

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Expectations of a 50bps rate hike by the Fed next week, led to a sharp jump in US 10Y yield. DXY too strengthened to a 5-year high

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Global markets continue to track developments surrounding China’s Covid-19 outbreak and Fed policy tightening

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China’s Covid-19 outbreak worsened as reports indicated possibility of lockdown in Beijing

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Increasing hawkish rhetoric by major Central Banks and spread of Covid-19 in China kept global markets on edge

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Major global yields (US, Germany and UK) rose sharply following hawkish comments from Fed Chair and ECB officials

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US 10Y yield dropped sharply following IMF’s downgrade of global growth projection

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Evaluating historical data of international crude price and its impact on India’s growth and inflation reveal some interesting results

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Global yields rose sharply led by US as Fed officials signalled of a 75bps rate hike amidst aggravating inflationary concerns

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Every year, before the beginning of the monsoon season, different agencies predict if the rainfall will be normal or not

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Global currencies closed lower against the dollar

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Global equity and currencies broadly closed lower as war tensions escalated

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International oil prices rose by 2.7% on reports of phased sanction by EU on Russian oil

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India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22 from US$ 20.9bn in Feb’22 as exports rose at a much faster pace than imports on a MoM basis

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Retail inflation in both US (8.5% versus 8.4%) and India (6.95% versus 6.4%) was reported to be higher than expected in Mar’22

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India’s industrial output inched up at a much slower pace to 1.7% in Feb’22 (1.5% in Jan’22) with manufacturing output up by 0.8%

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International oil prices fell below US$100/bbl-a first since 16 Mar 2022, as investors are concerned about extended lockdown in China to curb Covid-19 cases

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Global markets continue to be watchful as concerns over ongoing Russia-Ukraine war eased

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Following new set of sanctions announced by the US on Russia, EU has also announced sanctions on Friday

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Sri Lanka has been embroiled in an economic crisis amidst record-high inflation and mounting debt

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RBI has kept the policy rates unchanged and is tilted towards what may be called a hawkish view as it has rephrased its accommodative stance while keeping it unchanged

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Global markets monitored hawkish Fed commentary

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FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that Fed officials might raise policy rates by 50bps in the next meeting

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Global markets tracked hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as developments surrounding the possibility of fresh sanctions on Russia by US and European countries

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Apr 2022, we expect MPC to change stance from accommodative to neutral

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Reports that Western countries are mulling fresh sanctions on Russia, including possible ban on Russian coal and oil imports once again cast a shadow on global recovery

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Latest data for US unemployment shows that the rate was down to 2-year low of 3.6% Mar’22, indicating that a strong labour market will push US Fed to hiking rates more aggressively

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After depreciating to a record-low of 76.97/$, INR has stabilised in the last few days

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RBI in a recent report has highlighted three industries-electricity, chemicals and automobiles, as being the most vulnerable sectors in terms of fossil fuel intensity

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With continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices remain elevated

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Risk of elevated inflation continued to pose concerns for global markets. Germany’s inflation print rose to its 30-year high

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China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 and 48.4 respectively in Mar’22 led by disruption in economic activities due to covid-19 outbreak

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Led by hopes of possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global equity indices ended higher

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Oil prices slumped lower by 6.8% to US$ 113/bbl

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China’s industrial profits rose by 5% for the Jan-Feb’21 period (4.2% in Dec’21)

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US’ initial jobless claims fell to 187k (est.: 212k) as of week ending 19 Mar 2022, from 216 in the previous week

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US President Joe Biden is meeting European and NATO leaders to announce fresh sanctions on Russia

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US Fed raised policy rate for the first time since CY18 by 25bps

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The Ukraine war tended to cast a shadow on the forex market and the tendency was for currencies to depreciate against the dollar

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Global markets monitored progress between Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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Amongst emerging countries, India has remained a bright spot for foreign investors

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India’s trade deficit in Feb’22 widened to 3-month high of US$ 20.9bn from US$ 17.4bn in Jan’22

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Global markets monitored geopolitical developments around Russia and Ukraine

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A quick indicator of solvency of companies is the interest cover

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CPI inflation rose to 6.1% against market consensus of 6%

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Global markets tracked the progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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IIP growth rose to 1.3% in Jan’22 from 0.7% in Dec’21 led by manufacturing (1.1% from 0.2% in Dec’21) and mining output (2.8% from 2.6% in Dec’21)

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Against the background of the recently concluded State Elections where free power was an important issue, we analyse the current situation of DISCOMs in states

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Global markets reacted to surging US inflation and ECB comments on winding down its assets purchase programme sooner than expected

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Equity markets in advanced countries took a breather as commodity prices eased from near record-highs

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Oil prices surged further (highest since the 2008 Financial crisis), as US announced a ban on oil imports from Russia

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Russia-Ukraine war has grappled markets worldwide

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Oil prices continued to edge upwards amidst reports that US is likely to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector

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Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global markets and outweighed stronger than expected US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair

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Worsening Russia and Ukraine situation continued to impact global markets

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The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has impacted commodity prices to a considerable extent

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Global markets were rattled by escalating geopolitical tensions

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Last month saw multiple economic and political developments at domestic and global levels

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Risks to the INR outlook have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting rise in oil prices

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Global markets remained on edge as hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued

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India’s GDP growth is estimated at 8.9% in FY22 (-6.6% in FY21)

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Global equity and currencies closed higher supported by better macro print in the US (consumer spending, durable goods orders) and Euro Area (economic confidence index)

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Tension between Russia and Ukraine was simmering in the last few months

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Global markets fell as Russia moved troops into Ukrainian borders and launched an attack

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Global markets are eyeing deepening tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Ukraine has announced a 30-day state of emergency in the country

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Global markets continue to monitor reaction to Russia’s recognition of 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine and moving its troops in those areas

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Global markets remain jittery, driven by mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine

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Global markets remain wary of geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine and are closing tracking global efforts to diffuse the tensions

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Global markets continued to monitor geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine

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Global markets tracked developments over the Russia-Ukraine tensions and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

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Global markets continued to monitor positive development surrounding Russia and Ukraine

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India’s trade deficit in FYTD22 has surged to US$ 154.8bn from US$ 73.6bn in FYTD21

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With 5 states (13.2% of India’s GDP) entering their Assembly elections, it is interesting to see how they stack up in relative terms on economic and social indicators

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Globally, markets remain on edge due to heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia

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CPI inflation rose to 6% in Jan’22 from 5.7% in Dec’21, led by food inflation (5.4% versus 4%)

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Globally central banks are giving different views

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IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Dec’21 from 1.3% in Nov’21 led by mining (2.6% from 4.9% in Nov’21) and manufacturing output (declined by -0.1% from an increase of 0.8%)

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US CPI rose by 7.5% (highest since 1982) in Jan’22 compared with 7% in Dec’21 and estimated 7.3% increase

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RBI has kept all policy rates unchanged

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US CPI data due later in the week remains a key watchable for the markets

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Global markets await US CPI print, due this Thursday, and are also tracking the progress of US-Iran talking to assess the impact on oil supply and prices

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India’s recovery has gained momentum with a steady moderation in Covid-19 cases recently

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Global markets are closely tracking US-Iran talks and await US CPI print due this week for Fed policy guidance

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Elevated crude oil and commodity prices continue to add to India’s inflation concerns

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Global markets closely tracked the policy rate decisions by central banks

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In the current scenario, where interest rates are rising (20bps increase in 10Y Gsec yield in Feb’22, 15bps increase in AAA rated corporate yield and 18bps increase in AA+ paper of 10Y tenor), the primary challenge is funding

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Global markets continued to rally

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Global markets monitored manufacturing PMI prints and awaited BoE and ECB’s policy meet

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Budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with major thrust given to government capex

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Union budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with focus on boosting government capex and reviving private sector spending

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Global markets shifted their focus towards Central Bank meetings scheduled later this week

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This year’s Economic Survey has painted a positive picture of growth, supported by central Government’s “Barbell strategy and Agile response”

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Global markets continued to monitor hawkish comments by Fed

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Except Dow (flat) and FTSE (higher), other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hawkish commentary by Fed

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INR has depreciated sharply today in the aftermath of Fed policy

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US 10Y yield shot up by 9bps as Fed Chair remarked that “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate” signalling rate hike cycle to begin in Mar’22

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Global markets were volatile as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to build

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Budget for FY23 will see the government walking the tight rope in terms of boosting growth and achieving fiscal consolidation

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Global equity and bond indices ended lower, as investors remained cautious awaiting FOMC comments

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Despite a higher than projected nominal GDP growth and pick up in revenues, we except fiscal deficit in FY22 to come at 7%

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Global markets were volatile as investors await comments from US Federal Reserve

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As per news reports, FM is likely to consider a waiver of capital gain tax in the upcoming Union Budget of India

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E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022

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SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21

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WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation

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In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations

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Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA

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CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%

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World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week

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India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021

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India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%

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Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets

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With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn

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India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports

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WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21

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As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States

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CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)

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Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08

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According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production

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Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21

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India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn

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In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)

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Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021

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As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21

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With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed

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India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions

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As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports

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India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22

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Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year

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FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21

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In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021

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Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum

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In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25

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Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high

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India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21

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August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway

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In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.

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RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21

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US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence

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India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables

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India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect

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According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)

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India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis

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India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability

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According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown

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US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)

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RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year

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MPC maintained status quo on rates

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Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law

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India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace

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Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports

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India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21

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Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower

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Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21

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Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)

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Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill

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IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier

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Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%

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Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week

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ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19

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Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021

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India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021

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WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)

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S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant

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India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021

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India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21

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India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021

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India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20

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India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21

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Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week

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India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports

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While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs

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RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22

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India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21

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India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit

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Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021

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Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn

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FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs

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Global economic activity remained buoyant

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As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21

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India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21

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FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis

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As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week

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US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021

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MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown

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Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils

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India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year

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India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon

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RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space

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CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation

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WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index

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Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory

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India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021

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Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)

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According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21

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As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.

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World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).

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Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.

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US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.

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India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).

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MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.

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India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.

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India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.

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India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.

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India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.

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US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).

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FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.

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Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.

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RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

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In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.

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RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.

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RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.

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With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.

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WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.

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India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.

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As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.

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India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.

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As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.

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Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.

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India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.

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Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.

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India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.

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India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.

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RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.

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Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.

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As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).

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A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.

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As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.

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With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.

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RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.

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Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.

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As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.

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Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.

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MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.

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As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.

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As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.

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With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.

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Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.

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As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.

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India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.

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WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.

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