Research Reports

Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates

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In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%

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US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand

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US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23

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INR depreciated to a fresh record-low of 83.18/$ on 15 Sep 2023 led by a confluence of adverse shocks of rising dollar, higher oil prices and FPI outflows

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For the period till date (upto 15 Sep’23), monsoon activity is in deficit zone at 9% below LPA

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China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23)

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Aug’23, although its pace slowed, as it fell to (-) 0.5% compared with (-) 1.4% in Jul’23

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Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23)

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Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates

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CPI print remained broadly aligned with our estimate of 6.9% in Aug’23 and came in at 6.8% far lower compared to 7.4% seen in Jul’23

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Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy

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To augment funds, banks have relied on alternative sources, one of which is through issuance of Certificate of Deposits or CDs

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India’s South-West monsoon cumulatively stands at 10% below LPA till 11 Sep 2023.

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In China, as an encouraging sign towards economic recovery, deflationary pressure eased after CPI returned back in to the positive territory (+0.1% vs -0.3% in Jul’23)

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Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions

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US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy

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The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has moderated to 0.7% in Aug’23 and further has fallen by 1.7% in Sep’23, on a sequential basis

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China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1

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Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below LPA

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US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market

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Macro data points from the US, Europe and China and are showing that weakness in manufacturing and services activity still persists

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US 10Y yield has pared most of its increase in Aug’23 as major growth indicators remained patchy

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After depreciating to a record-low during the month, INR made a smart recovery to end the month only marginally lower

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Past data indicates that over 90% of kharif sowing is completed by August end

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Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain

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India’s GDP rose by 7.8% in Q1FY24, following 6.1% growth in Q4FY23

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Macro data from major economies once again fuelled fears of a slowdown in growth. In US, private payrolls (177k versus est. 195k) and second revised estimates of Q2CY23 GDP (2.1% versus est. 2.4%) missed market expectations

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Job openings data (JOLTS) for the US showed that openings dropped to 2.5 year low in Jul’23 to 8.83mn (est.: 9.45mn), down from 9.17mn in Jun’23

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India has been witnessing deficient rainfall in the month of August and it stands at 32% below LPA compared with a 13% (above LPA) surplus rainfall received back in July

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Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions

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Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23

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Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole

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Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector

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Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown

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Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds

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Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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For the cumulative period till 18th August, India’s South West Monsoon is down by 6% below LPA (3% below LPA last week) compared with 9% surplus last year for the same period

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After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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US 10Y yield has risen considerably post the last Fed policy meeting (26 Jul)

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INR closed at a record low of 83.15/$ yesterday, just short of an intra-day low of 83.24/$ in Oct’22

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Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy

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Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge

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CPI print surprised way above expectation at 7.44%, and was the highest since Apr-22

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India’s South West Monsoon slowed down marginally to 3% below LPA (5% surplus last week) compared with 8% surplus last year for the same period

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US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23

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US CPI data remained comforting

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In a unanimous decision, MPC members have decided to keep the policy rates on hold, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Investors remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI data, where a sequential pickup of 0.2% is expected both for headline print and core CPI

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Capital expenditure by the government continues to remain the key driver of economic growth in the last few years

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Adding to further woes, China’s inflation data softened considerably in Jul’23

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The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in the upcoming policy meet

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Global macro indicators showed some degree of softening

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More macro data now points towards slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jul’23

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US jobs report showed some degree of softening as it rose by 187k (slowest pace since Dec’20) and less than expectation of 200K

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has picked up sharply by 4.9% (MoM) and 6.5% (YoY) in Jul’23

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All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 5% above LPA as of 4 Aug2023

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In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level

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Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt

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Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management

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Growth remained comparatively on better footing for US, Eurozone and India; thus risk on sentiments led firming up of yields of these economies

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Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates

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The intensity of rainfall has pushed South-West monsoon higher at 6% (above LPA) till 30 Jul 2023

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Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years

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In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY23 and FY24, we start by looking at the trends in fiscal balance of states

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Global growth and inflation continue to show diverging trends

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Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged

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During the peak of Covid-19 pandemic, a phenomenon which gained prominence amongst Indian corporates was deleveraging-or a decline in overall debt

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In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high

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India is amongst top 5 importers of crude oil across the globe

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IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector

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Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress

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India’s South-West monsoon has gathered momentum with higher rainfall at 5% (above LPA) till 23 Jul 2023

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Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week

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Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k)

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UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23

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US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23

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As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3

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Even as hopes of a prolonged pause by Fed have increased, some members still remain hawkish

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India’s South-West monsoon continues to engulf the entire country resulting in higher rainfall at 1% (above LPA) till 14 Jul 2023

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 57.6bn in Q1FY24 from US$ 62.6bn in the same period last year

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Jun’23 as it fell to (-) 4.1% from (-) 3.5% in May’23

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In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected

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Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers

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CPI print rose more than expected by 4.8%

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Global macro data remained mixed

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Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level

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Advancement of South-West monsoon across the entire country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% (above LPA) till 9 Jul 2023

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Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23

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Inflation concerns in India reignited with some upswing in vegetable prices especially tomato (0.57% wt in CPI) and onion (0.64% wt in CPI)

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Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes

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Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent

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Markets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike

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Continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jun’23 (at 6-month low of 48.8) and drop business optimism index to 7-month low, has reignited fears of global growth slowdown

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Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave

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Indian economy remains a favored place for investment as has been reflected by strong FPI flows in the past few months

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State governments in Q1FY24 borrowed Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the market, lower than the planned amount of Rs 2 lakh crore, but higher than Q1FY23’s Rs 1.1 lakh crore

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Buoyant FPI inflows and a weaker dollar pushed INR 0.8% higher in Jun’23

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The reiteration of hawkish tone by central banks in US, Eurozone and UK have led to sell off in the bond market

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Tomato prices are again on a spiral. On sequential basis, the average retail price of tomato went up by 38.5% in Jun’23

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) showed a slight uptick by 1.2% in Jun’23 on sequential basis, however, much of it is attributed to seasonality

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Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation

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Global central banks are likely to continue raising rates as the fight against inflation seem far from over

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US macro data indicated that the economy remains on strong footing

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It is often blurry when we speak of the investment picture of Indian economy

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Household savings are a critical part of the growth process as they provide the funding required for the same

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India’s CAD widened to -2% of GDP in FY23 from -1.2% of GDP in FY22

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Global central bank policies continue to remain the underlying theme driving market movements in the last few sessions

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Fresh fears of a global economic downturn emerged after flash composite PMIs of Japan (4-month low), US (3-month low), UK (3-month low) and Eurozone (5-month low) showed a slowdown

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BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale

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The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations

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Using the data largely from RBI’s report on Trend and Progress in Banking 2021-22, this study attempts to look at the performance of Non-Bank Financial Corporations (NBFCs) in the last few years and compares the same with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)

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US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23

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The onset of South West monsoon was delayed this year by more than a week against expectation (1st Jun)

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Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut)

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Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy

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Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation

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US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in May’23 as it fell to (-) 3.5% from (-) 0.9% in Apr’23, thus dropping to its 7.5 year low

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In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23

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In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%

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CPI print cooled off to its lowest since Apr’21 to 4.3% in May’23

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan

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India’s GDP data confirmed that economic growth remains on firm ground

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Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle

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MPC members today again unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high

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Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels

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Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2023, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged

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Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23

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After increasing by 15% in Mar’23, bank credit growth picked up further to 15.9% in Apr’23

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The corporate sector recorded a fairly steady performance in Q4 of FY23 though growth in sales and net profits slowed down relative to last year

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CPI print for May’23 is due to be released

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Global growth expected to slow down in 2023, led by Advanced Economies

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Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22

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Downward revision to Germany’s Q1CY23 GDP (-0.3% versus -0.5% in Q4CY22) has reignited fears of global growth slowdown on account of elevated prices, and aggressive tightening by central banks

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Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off

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UK and US 10Y yields’ noticed quite a sharp upturn in May’23

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INR depreciated in May’23 amidst renewed dollar strength

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Commercial Paper (CP) issuances have carved an important space historically and remained a preferred choice for better rated corporates for raising capital in a cost effective way from the market

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Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report

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Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22.

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Centre’s fiscal position in FY23 came in line with government’s revised projections for FY23

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Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation

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Global economic outlook both for CY23 and CY24 looks benign on account of lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, subdued private investment, and geo economic shifts impacting capital flows and persistent elevated inflation

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Global markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline)

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Surrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher

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Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23

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FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy

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US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy

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Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates

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RBI in its notification dated 19 May 2023 has announced gradual withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes from the system; albeit stating that it continues to be a legal tender

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Fed Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis

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After remaining stable for most part of the last few months, INR has come under pressure in the last few sessions

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US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k)

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US housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement

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Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23

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As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased

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WPI inflation continues went into contraction in Apr’23 as it came in at (-) 0.9%, down from 1.3% in Mar’23

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Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer

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CPI print cooled off to 18-month low in Apr’23 to 4.7% against 5.7% in Mar’23

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US macro data points to a slowdown

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Fed’s latest decision signalling a prolonged pause has helped ease pressure on both domestic yields and currency

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US CPI data on a sequential basis remained sticky rising by 0.4%, in Apr’23 from 0.1% in Mar’23 (est.: 0.4%)

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Fed officials reflected divergent tone about course of Fed rate

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Amongst major developments has been better than expected exports growth in China by 8.5% in Apr’23 (est.: 8%), albeit slower compared to 14.8% growth in Mar’23, on YoY basis

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Inflation indices in India are presented on a monthly basis at both the wholesale and retail levels

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Global markets monitored US payroll data, which remained buoyant with non- farm payroll rising by 253K in Apr’23 from 165K in Mar’23 and against est.: level of 185K

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US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation

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Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks

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GDP data for Q1CY23 shows that while major economies have avoided a recession (most feared in case of Europe), slowdown in activity still continues

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Global bond yields traded mixed in Apr’23 influenced by varied macros

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A string of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes

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Global economy was once again beginning to stare at the possibility of economic slowdown as fears re-emerged over the possibility of economic recession in US owing to another banking crisis

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In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22

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US data showed a mixed picture of the economy

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Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits

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Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy

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The performance of Indian stock market (Nifty) in FY23 when compared with last year has not been up to mark

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Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector

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India and US 10Y yield differential is seen inching up since March’23

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Latest US data shows that existing home sales have again begun to decline in Mar’23 (4.4mn units versus est.: 4.5mn and 4.6mn in Feb’23)

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Fed’s beige book indicates that economic activity remains broadly unchanged

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Investment picture in FY23 was fuzzy

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US housing starts are seen stabilising on the hopes of Fed pausing its rate hike cycle this year (expected from Jun’23)

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DXY fell by 0.9% in Apr’23 so far as expectations that the Fed is nearing an end to its rate hike cycle gained momentum

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Latest data from China points that reopening of the economy has helped GDP growth as it rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Q1CY23 (est.: 4%) from 2.9% in Q4

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WPI inflation continues to decelerate at a faster pace than CPI and was down to 1.3% in Mar’23 compared with 3.9% in Feb’23

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Macro data in the US is giving mixed signals, pointing out that the economy may not be slowing as much as anticipated

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Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices

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CPI print in Mar’23 got comfort from a favourable statistical base

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent report has flagged risks to the global growth recovery

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All eyes were around the surprise pause delivered by RBI

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IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy

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Amidst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23

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US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23

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MPC members today unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, after hiking continuously since May’22

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Global growth is showing signs of slowdown as mixed economic data is being reported from the US and China

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Disappointing data reading from US (ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment) continues to signal slowdown in US economy

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Sluggish US data (shrinking manufacturing activity and lower jobs opening) pulled down the dollar index and raised hope of Fed nearing the end of rate tightening cycle

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Fed’s gauge of inflation data (PCE: down to 5% in Feb’23 against 5.3% in Jan’23) surprised positively

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In the wake of rising interest rates scenario, Government has followed suit by jacking up the rates on small savings schemes for Q11FY24

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Global bond yields fell sharply in Mar’23 following the banking crisis

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Driven by a weakness in DXY, global currencies appreciated

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Centre has come up with its H1FY24 borrowing calendar

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Global markets monitored key macro data releases and comments from major Fed officials

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India’s external sector is ending FY23 on a much more strong footing than what was expected at the start of the year

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Global currency and bond markets got breather from the recent comments of officials

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Global markets gained comfort from announcement of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company will purchase all loans and deposits of Silicon Valley Bank

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Timely actions by global Central Banks has kept the lid over the ongoing challenges in the financial system

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In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes

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The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading

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Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions

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In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%

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Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation

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Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23

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Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic

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Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse

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The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes

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In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23

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WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23

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Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank

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Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort

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The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year

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In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures

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IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023

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In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also

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Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out

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Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession

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Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy

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Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23

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Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year

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Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally

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Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far

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Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation

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Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate

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Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes

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A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate

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Global macro indicators remained mixed

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Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)

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High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed

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Credit growth in India has seen a sharp revival in FY23

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Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term

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Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening

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Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it

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Global economy remains unsettled as it battles the wind of uncertainty posed by geo-political tension and concerns emerging over global growth

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The trajectory of USD/INR in the next year will be determined by both global as well as domestic macro fundamentals

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Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory

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Liquidity has been quite a pertinent issue of late when financial conditions remained stringent on account of tightening policy response to higher inflation

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Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January

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Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance

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Latest US data shows that labour market continues to remain tight with initial jobless claims for the week ending 11 Feb 2023, falling by 1k to 194k

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Dollar rally resumed once again as bets of more Fed rate hikes reemerged.

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US retail sales increased by 3% in Jan’23 (est. 1.9%) compared with a decline of 1.1% in Dec’22

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US CPI data for Jan’23 came in at 6.4% versus est.: 6.2% and 6.5% in Dec’22

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WPI inflation has slumped to 4.7% in Jan’23 (5% Dec’22), on the back by moderation in fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Global markets await US CPI data for Jan’23, which is expected to come in at 6.2% down from 6.5% in Dec’22

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Discomfort again appeared from an elevated CPI print in Jan’23

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IIP growth eased to 4.3% in Dec’22 from 7.3% in Nov’22, led by a sharp moderation in manufacturing

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Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week

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The present financial year has been quite unusual in the sense that consumption kept ticking even with inflation being high as the pent up demand phenomenon played out

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FPI flows into India has largely remained negative this year mirroring a trend seen across EM countries

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Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates

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The Union Budget for FY24 focussed on fiscal consolidation and supporting growth through increased capex spending

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RBI has increased its policy rate by 25bps to 6.5%, taking the cumulative rate hike to 250bps since May’22

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Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year

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Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift

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Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report

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At the beginning of 2023, while there is hope that global economy will slow down less than previously anticipated, however uncertainties still remain

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A changing Fed narrative as well as a global risk-on sentiment explain the rally in global currencies in 2023

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In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps

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In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down

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Budget for FY24 balances between fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment through crowding in, and protecting consumer income from inflationary pressures through tax relief

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Union Budget for FY24 is a continuation of the ideology displayed in earlier budgets and has hence tread on similar lines

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Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress

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This year Economic Survey has presented a holistic picture of the impact of government policies on growth and quality of living and also outlined the path to achieve sustainable 7-8% growth per annum over the medium term

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Global bond yields edged down as markets are now expecting that Fed is probably nearing its terminal rate, as it got breather from softening of core PCE data

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IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier

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Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week

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Markets monitored slew of economic data releases

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With Union budget in focus, and expectations of a higher capital outlay by the central government to boost investment, we here analyse the role of state governments in the overall public sector spending

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Flash PMI readings for Jan’23 of major economies remained in contraction territory

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Despite this being last full budget before the elections, budget for FY24 is unlikely to be a populist one

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Equity market edged up while there was broad sell off in the bond and currency market

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Global macro indicators again provided discomfort with US existing home sales falling by 1.5% to 4.02mn in Dec’22 against 4.08mn in Nov’22

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Signs of slowdown in US economy became more visible with dip in housing starts (1.38 mn, a 5-month low from 1.4 mn in Nov’22) and permits data, following disappointing retail sales and industrial production

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BoJ in its widely anticipated meeting unanimously moved against the tide and continued with the ultra-low rates

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Global leaders at the ongoing WEF at Davos shared concerns that likelihood of global recession remains imminent in CY23, offsetting optimism of China reopening

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WPI inflation slipped down to 5% in Dec’22 from 5.8% in Nov’22

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Less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed owing to easing of CPI print, prompted dollar to drop to its lowest level since Jun’22

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Ahead of the Union Budget there are many conjectures about the disinvestment figure of capital receipts, to get an idea about how the fiscal deficit will be financed

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US inflation declined by 0.1% in Dec’22 (est. 0%) from +0.1% in Nov’22 (MoM)

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Comfort came in from both India’s growth and inflation print

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CPI inflation in China accelerated to 1.8% in Dec’22 (est. 1.8%) from 1.6% in Nov’22, led by higher food prices

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Bolstering the case of a global recession, World Bank slashed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 3% earlier

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Increased expectations of a softer stance from the Fed drove global markets

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Despite an uncertain global macros, FSR highlighted that Indian economy has remained fairly resilient

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US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in Dec’22, slowing from 256,000 additions in Nov’22

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7% in FY23 growth from 8.7% in FY22

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With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals

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Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22

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The New Year has started with positive news emerging on the investment side

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US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth

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Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy

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As 2022 ends economic challenges stand ready for major global economies

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Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well

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In Dec’22, bond yields globally changed direction and went for an upswing as Federal Reserve now expects a higher terminal rate at 5.1%

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In 2022, INR depreciated by 10.1% led by a rally in dollar

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China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22

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Jobless claims data in the US remained in line with expectation, despite remaining higher than previous week

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In lacklustre trading week, global markets remained cautious over impact of China’s reopening

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Global markets continued to remain cautious over China’s reopening and its spill over impact

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Global markets got breather from China’s removal of Covid-19 restrictions for inbound travellers

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Asian markets were rattled over news reports that majority of China’s cities are predicting a Covid-19 peak in Jan’23

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Robust economic data from the US including revision of US GDP for Q3CY22 upwards, lower jobless claims raised likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed

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Global market digested mixed news of upbeat US consumer confidence, corporate earnings and subdued home sales data

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While the size of the IPO market remains small in CYTD22 so far at ~Rs 55,000 crore versus Rs 1.2 lakh crore

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Global economy has been witnessing upheavals due to uncertainty posed by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict which resulted in supply constraints thus hampering global value chains

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Finally leaving the divergence path, BoJ joined the wagon along with other global central banks after it shocked the global market by widening the long term yield control thereby allowing long term rates to rise more

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In Sep’19, the Union Government in a surprise move slashed corporate tax rate on both existing and new domestic manufacturing units

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CY22 has been a tumultuous year

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Growing risk of recession continued to weigh in on investors as they began the pre-holiday week with early signs of economic softness adding to the negative sentiments

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Fears of global economic slowdown resurfaced to the shore once again after global Central Banks kept their foot firm on the rate hike pedal

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When conjecturing the direction of central bank policy rate, we all know that inflation is important as they have a mandate to target this variable

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Both ECB and BoE hiked policy rates by 50bps, in line with expectations

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Driven by a sharper than expected moderation is US CPI, dollar eased, leading to gains in most major currencies

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US Fed raised rates by an expected 50bps

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WPI inflation has slumped to 5.8% in Nov’22 (8.4% Oct’22), on the back of broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Markets cheered softer than expected inflation print from the US, which suggests that the terminal Fed rate may not be as high as expected earlier

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Central government has recently presented the first batch of supplementary grants

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Markets remained rather subdued awaiting US inflation report and Fed policy outcome

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India’s headline inflation cooled off to an 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Oct’22

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There is often discussion on whether or not monetary transmission percolates to the real sector of the economy through change in the pace of growth in credit

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Data showed that while PPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.3%in Nov’22 (same as Oct’22), it increased more than market estimates of 0.2%, on a MoM basis

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Risks of a global recession have increased, as shown by macro data points from both US (housing sector) and China (trade, production, PMIs)

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Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22

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High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week

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RBI’s policy remains in line with expectation

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Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit

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Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments

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The credit policy to be announced on the 7th of December is important for several reasons

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A nagging issue when conducting monetary policy is to ascertain whether or not the transmission mechanism is effective

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Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k

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Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns

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Growth in Bank credit has accelerated during the financial year which is a positive sign of economic activity picking up though banks are challenged by a slower growth in deposits

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Dollar demand waned and other global currencies edged up as Fed Chair hinted at tapering the pace of rate hikes starting from Dec’22

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Global bond yields broadly went into a downswing in Nov’22, a situation not seen in the past few months

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Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias

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On the back of base effect, India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 (13.5% in Q1)

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Global macro indicators showed signs of stress

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Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level

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Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions

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Dovish signals by Fed pushed global indices higher

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India’s trade deficit in FYTD23 has surged to US$ 175bn as of Oct’22 compared with US$ 94bn in FYTD22, driven by faster pace of import growth (due to revival in domestic activity and higher commodity prices)

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Interest rate cycle has taken a reversal if we compare H1 of FY23 to H1 of FY22.

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Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well

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The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases

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A rebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions

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Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments

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Fed’s James Bullard advocated for more rate hikes stating that the rate hikes so far “had only limited effect on observed inflation”

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Our analysis of the financial performance of an aggregate sample of 1,917 companies shows that net sales continue to increase, despite witnessing slight moderation

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Data from US painted a mixed picture

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In further signs that inflationary pressures in the US may have peaked, US PPI rose less than expected in Oct’22

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Buoyed by hopes of a likely Fed pivot, global currencies appreciated against the dollar in Nov’22

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Global markets reacted to comments from Fed’s Christopher Wallace who cautioned the “endpoint” of rates is still “a ways off”

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Headline CPI moderated to 6.8% in Oct’22 from 7.4% in Sep’22, led by food, fuel and core inflation

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WPI cools off further (5th consecutive month) to 8.4% in Oct’22(10.7% Sep’22), supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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IMF recently warned of a gloomier outlook for the world economy than was anticipated in the WEO (Oct’22)

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Industrial growth increased by 3.1% in Sep’22 (-0.7% in Aug’22)

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US CPI for Oct’22 fell to a 9-month low of 0.4%, lower than estimated 0.6% and also down from upwardly revised 0.6% in Sep’22

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With rising Covid-19 cases in China, and PPI falling for the 1st time in 2 years, fears of global growth slowdown have increased

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Latest global macro prints further indicate that there might be an impending global growth slowdown

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Stubbornly high inflation print worldwide has nudged global central banks on rate hike spree

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After keeping rates stagnant for almost 2-years, the government recently announced a hike in interest rates for small savings scheme

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Global equities, currencies, and bond yields ended higher

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Net sales of companies remained robust, despite slight moderation in Q2FY23 compared to the same period of previous year

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Often when we talk of supply chain bottleneck, an indicator which comes across our mind is freight cost

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Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated

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US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08

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Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision

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In the given landscape, the Central Bank has been on policy tightening spree with liquidity crunched up

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RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Sep’22

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Global bond market was in a trap trying to untangle growth-inflation dynamics

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INR depreciated by 0.5% in the last fortnight even as DXY retreated from a 20-year high

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Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected

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Inflation in Europe indicates that prices continue to remain elevated in Oct’22 in both Germany (10.4% versus 10%) and France (6.2% versus 5.6%)

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US GDP rose more than expected in Q3CY22 to 2.6% (est. +2.3%), ending two consecutive quarters of negative growth

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It has been a matter of debate whether Bank deposits are still the preferred choice of instrument of financial savings

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US housing market showed signs of stress as high interest rates start to bite

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Flash composite PMIs of UK (21-month low), Eurozone (23-month low) and US (2-month low) signal further moderation in economic activity

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Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher

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In the current fiscal year, we have noticed that there are a number of states which have been consistently using RBI’s cash flow management facilities in order to meet their fiscal commitments

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US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts

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Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22)

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UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green

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Macro data from the US reinstated market expectations of a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next meeting

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On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet

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WPI for Sep’22 eased to 18-month low of 10.7% from 12.4% in Aug’22, supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China

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Headline CPI rose to 7.4% in Sep’22 from 7% in Aug’22, led by food and core inflation

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While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22)

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Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated

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Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions

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With major Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) on course to continue hiking rates aggressively, global yields have inched up and fears of global recession have increased

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After keeping repo rate unchanged at a record low of 4% for 2 years, RBI announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate in May’22

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There could be some good news based on the new investment announcements made by companies in the first half of the year

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 29k to 219k (est.: 205k) for the week ended 1 Oct 2022

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Macro prints for the US indicate that economy is not slowing as much as feared

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon has been above normal and stands at 6% above LPA at the end of the monsoon period for this year (2022).

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Global manufacturing activity weakened further as indicated by muted PMI prints in US, Eurozone, Japan and India

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There is considerable euphoria relating to consumption, and the relentlessly high GST collection numbers is a reflection of this phenomenon

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Major global Central Banks have announced steep policy hikes in Sep’22, and have vowed to remain hawkish as long as inflation levels remains elevated

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Financial tightening continued globally which led to sell-off in the bond market

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The last fortnight was marked by sharp volatility in the global markets, with the foreign exchange market being particularly badly hit

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Inflation remains an ongoing concern with US core PCE deflator inching up by 0.6% (est.: 0.5%) in Aug’22 from 0% in Jul’22, and CPI in Eurozone rising to 10% (est.: 9.7%) from 9.1% in Jul’22

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RBI’s policy was in line with expectations

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US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market

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BoE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks

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A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 30 Sep 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 50bps

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Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes

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Consumption, with a major share in GDP is an important indicator when talking about how growth has fared

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Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession

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Global currencies depreciated sharply yesterday amidst a hawkish commentary from Fed

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Global Central Banks sprung in action as synchronized monetary tightening was noted across the globe, with other Central Banks catching up to US Fed

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US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%

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TBill yields are witnessing quite a bit of volatility off late

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The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 7% above LPA as of 19 Sep 2022

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Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe

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Dollar continued its upward momentum with the DXY index hovering close to a 20-year high

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World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation

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Fuel taxes have been a contentious issue in India especially at a time when inflation has been increasing

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Global currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy

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Global markets remained cautious tracking major macro data releases of different economies

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India has the second-largest telecom market in the world with the country registering a strong subscriber base over the last decade

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WPI for Aug’22 has come in at 12.4%, down from the peak of 13.9% in Jul'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis

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Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22)

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Headline CPI rose to 7% in Aug’22 from 6.7% in Jul’22. Food inflation rose sharply to 7.6% from 6.7% in Jul’22 led by vegetables, fruit and milk and pulses

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2021 was the year for the equity market where we witnessed high IPO issuances as companies accessed this avenue for raising funds

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Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India)

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 5% above LPA as of 8 Sep 2022

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ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record

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US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth

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With the growing importance of investment for higher GDP growth, there is an urgent need for alternative sources of financing; and corporate bonds market can play an important role here

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Last month, major market mover has been the Jackson Hole Symposium

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US’ Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7

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Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22

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The study is based on IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators database

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US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est. 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k

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Following the statements by major central bankers at Jackson Hole, it is expected that global monetary conditions will continue to tighten, until inflation is brought down

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US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 232,000 suggesting continued labour market strength

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown steepest increase, post Jackson Hole conference

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Global markets remained volatile amidst increased fears of a global recession

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In CY22 so far, we have observed that Indian equity markets (both Sensex and Nifty) have performed relatively better than other major global equity markets

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Volatility returned to the global markets this week driven largely by a more hawkish than expected commentary from the Fed Chair

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Global markets remained volatile following Fed Chair’s speech which was more hawkish than market expectations

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Fed Chair in a highly anticipated speech hinted at further rate hikes to curb inflation, while acknowledging that this may translate into slower growth and softer labour-market conditions

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In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY22 and FY23, we selected a sample of 21 major states for which the data was readily available

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Investors are cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 9% above LPA as of 24 Aug 2022

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Growth and inflationary concerns continued to bother global economy

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The real estate sector plays an important role in the economy, especially true for a developing economy like India with a huge population, implying an ever increasing demand for housing

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Flash PMI readings reflected muted economic activity in the US (composite reading 27-month low) and Eurozone (18-month low)

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India’s economy has grown by 8.7% in FY22 after contracting by 6.6% in FY21

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Global equity and currency indices continued to slide amidst energy woes in Europe

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Investors are anticipating hawkish comments from Fed Chair at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium

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IMD had predicted the second half of the South-West monsoon will continue to receive normal rainfall, same as the first half

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Led by uncertainty over the pace of future rate hike by Fed, kept the investors on the edge as they looked for further cues

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We have analysed the financial performance of 35 banks of which 12 are Public, 19 Private Sector Banks (PVBs) and remaining 4 are Small Finance Banks

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After a rather volatile period of 2 months, the global currency markets attained some semblance of stability in the first fortnight of August

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Investors monitored US Fed minutes which signalled that Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in order to rein in inflation

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Construction of US housing starts dropped to its lowest level since Feb’21 to 1.44mn units in Jul’22 from 1.55mn units in Jun’22, signalling the impact of the soaring mortgage rates

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Headline CPI cooled off to 6.9% in Jul’22 from 7% in Jun’22

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As South-West monsoon picked up pace, resulting in cumulative rainfall of 8% above LPA as of 12 Aug 2022

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Following the dip in US CPI, recent data shows that US PPI also cooled off in Jul’22

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US CPI rose by 8.5% in Jul’22 versus est.: 8.7% and 9.1% in Jun’22, supported by ~20% decline in gasoline prices

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In its latest policy, RBI hiked repo rate by 50bps taking the cumulative rate hike in repo rate to 140bps in the current cycle

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We have in this study examined financial performance of 3180 companies (excluding financial companies) and noted the trend in interest coverage ratio defined as Operating profit to Interest

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Investors cautiously await US CPI print due later in the day today, which is expected to have eased to 8.7% in Jul’22 from 9.1% in Jun’22

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Better than expected macro prints in US, Europe and Asia boosted investor sentiments (yields and crude closed higher)

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Advancement of South-West monsoon has resulted in cumulative rainfall at 6% above LPA as of 5 Aug 2022

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RBI continued with hawkish policy as repo rate was hiked (3rd time in a row) by 50bps and is back to the pre-pandemic level

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Bank of England (BoE) raised policy rates by an expected 50bps (biggest rate hike since CY95), as it attempts to tame skyrocketing inflation

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Strong macro data from the US lifted market sentiments globally

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It has been observed that global monetary policy rates tend to move in tandem, with the US Fed generally leading the global rate cycle

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Possibility of an escalation in US-China conflict amidst US House of Representative Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, impacted investor sentiments

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Fears of a global recession surfaced again as PMIs showed moderation in manufacturing activity in Europe, US and China amidst muted demand and high inflation

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South-West monsoon has registered above normal rainfall at 8% (above LPA) till 31 Jul 2022

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High frequency indicators (PMIs, consumer/business sentiment index) in US, China and Eurozone are pointing towards slowdown in economic activity

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have moderated in the current fortnight with Germany and US 10Y yield falling as much as 32 and 27bps respectively

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Global currencies edged up against a weaker dollar

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Euro Area GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2CY22 (QoQ) beating expectations of a 0.2% increase

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South-West monsoon picked up pace and registered above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 29 Jul 2022

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Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward

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FY22 was a year when the economy got back on its feet

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In line with market expectations, US Fed hiked policy rate by 75 bps in its latest meeting

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In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps

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Investment climate in India in Q1FY23 started on a weaker tone with data pointing towards sharp drop in new project announcements relative to Q4FY22.

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After recovering quickly in 2021 from the pandemic induced downturn in CY20, the global economy is on the path of uncertainty and a slowdown in CY22 and CY23

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IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”

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With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 11% above LPA till 25 Jul 2022

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FY23 has begun on a rather sombre note for the Indian economy with mixed signals

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After sharp increase in global commodity prices, post the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, prices have witnessed a dip in the last month

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Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50-75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check

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Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge

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UK’s CPI print rose to its fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in Jun’22, on YoY basis, against expectation of 9.3% and 9.1% in May’22, led by food and fuel

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Markets remained cautious awaiting ECB’s policy decision where even a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out considering the Jun’22 CPI inflation print is still elevated at 8.6%

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INR continued to hit fresh record low and just shy of the US$ 80/bbl mark

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Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown moderation across the board as recession fears outweighed inflationary concerns

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Macro prints in the US remained mixed with retail sales gaining ground and industrial production remaining muted in Jun’22

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With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 14% above LPA till 15 Jul 2022

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Global currencies depreciated against the dollar as a hotter than expected US inflation report drove the currency higher

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Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown

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WPI for Jun'22 has come in at 15.2%, down from the peak of 15.9% in May'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets

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Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today

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Headline CPI remained sticky at 7% in Jun’22 and ending Q1FY23 at 7.3% against RBI’s estimate of 7.3%

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The most notable fact off late has been depreciating INR which is touching record low every other day

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In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK

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US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed

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Government of India in Jun’22 had hiked the MSP of Kharif crops with the objective to provide remunerative prices and encourage crop diversification

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Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment

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US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth

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Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession

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Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation

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Fears of slowdown in global growth have intensified over the past month as multiple high frequency indictors are showing strains of stress (PMIs, commodity prices)

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Increasing risks of global recession drove global currencies lower

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Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies

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Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks

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Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets

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Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet

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Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed

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Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued

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FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times

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Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown

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The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy

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Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage

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US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22

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Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22

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Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22

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Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception

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With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards

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US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar

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Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks

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Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22

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Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength

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Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation

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Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base

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As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81

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India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect

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With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance

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ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22

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After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%

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RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns

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World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier

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We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)

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Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns

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In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps

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China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction

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Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike

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With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated

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Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

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With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated

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Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge

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Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%

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Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21

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EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia

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Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting

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International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia

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Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings

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Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services

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PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth

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US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory

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Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation

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External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs

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Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis

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According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years

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Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices

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Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)

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Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21

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