Research Reports

On global front, tariff jitters are blindsiding growth-inflation dynamics

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US tariff policies continued to dominate global market headlines as US President imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports

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Tariff concerns were reignited as US President threatened to impose 50% tariff on copper imports, along with introducing higher tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

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US President extended the tariff deadline to 1 Aug 2025, while also stating that the new deadline was “not 100% firm”

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Investors’ focus this week is likely to remain on tariff news from the US

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BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI) has been in deflation territory in Jun’25 as well, declining by -1.8%, on YoY basis

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In a positive surprise, US jobs report defied expectations and added 147,000 jobs in Jun’25 and unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%

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The trade agreement has been finalized between US and Vietnam, as per which a 20% flat tariffs will be levied on the Vietnamese exports, which is much lower than a levy of 46% announced in Apr’25

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Last month was marked by increased volatility in the global financial system as hostilities between Iran and Israel erupted suddenly

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JOLTs data in the US surprised positively as the job openings in May’25 increased to 7.76mn from a reading of 7.39mn in Apr’25

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South West monsoon picked up pace and so far has received above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 30 Jun 2025

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INR depreciated by 0.2% in Jun’25, following 1.3% depreciation registered in May’25

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Global yields showed the impact of risk aversion on the backdrop of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East

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RBI in the financial stability report stated that Indian economy remains the key driver of global growth supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent policies

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IIP growth was lower at 1.2% in May’25 from 6.3% in May’24

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US PCE price index, Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, rose by 0.1% in May’25 taking the annual inflation reading to 2.3%

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Global markets got a breather from signs of optimistic developments

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An issue which gained prominence in the past is deleveraging by India Inc

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Global markets witnessed mixed reaction to an uneasy ceasefire between Iran and Israel

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Global markets rebounded. Equities and currencies posted gains while oil and gold moderated, focussing on Middle East truce

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In the latest development, US President has announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, possibly marking the end of 12-day long war

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South West monsoon began gathering pace and so far received below normal rainfall at 1% below LPA till 22 Jun 2025

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The provisional estimates from the state budget for FY26 and revised estimates for FY25 shows some interesting trends

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Global markets remained cautious monitoring the flared up geopolitical tensions

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As anticipated, Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%

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In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep its rates on hold. The closely watched dot plot continues to signal 2 rate cuts in CY25

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US economy is signalling a slowdown as its industrial output fell by (-) 0.2% (MoM) in May’25 (est.: 0%) following 0.1% increase in Apr’25

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INR depreciated by 0.6% in Jun’25, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and the resulting hike in oil prices dented investor sentiments

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Amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East region, Iran has signalled that it is willing to de-escalate tensions with Israel, as both countries continue to attack each other’s shipping infrastructure

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WPI inflation eased to 0.4% in May’25—lowest since Mar’24, from 2.7% in May’24

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The first fortnight of South West monsoon began, at a much slower pace than anticipated resulting in below normal rainfall at 31% below LPA till 15 Jun 2025

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Continuous escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel has dented investor sentiments across asset classes

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Simmering tensions in the Middle-East dented investor sentiments, as Israel and Iran appear on the brink of a war

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CPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.1% in May’25 (est. 0.2%), after increasing 0.2% in Apr’25 (MoM)

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US and China agreed on an in-principle framework aimed at de-escalating trade tensions

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Global markets saw tentative trading as focus remained firmly on the ongoing trade negotiations between US and China

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US labour market added 139,000 jobs in May’25, higher than an estimated 130,000 increase

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The MPC with a 5-1 vote lowered the repo rate by 50bps from 6% to 5.5%, as RBI announced frontloading of rate cuts

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In line with expectations, ECB has cut benchmark rates (for 8th time) by 25bps bringing key rates to 2%

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BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI) entered the deflation territory, the sharpest fall noticed since Jan’19

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After a brief respite, global trading system was once again hit with tariff driven uncertainty. At the start of the month, there were clear indications of a softer US tariff policy

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In the US, private payrolls data rose by 37,000 in May’25 (lowest level since Mar’23) compared with 60,000 addition noted in Apr’25

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In the US, jobs opening data surprised on the upside as it rose to 7.39mn in Apr’25 from 7.2mn in Mar’25

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Given that RBI’s mandate is to keep inflation within the targeted range, and since CPI has remained on the lower to middle end of RBI’s band since Jan’25, we expect another back-to-back rate cut by the central bank in its upcoming policy

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Global yields showed some stiffening in May’25 led by elevated debt concerns in the US which partly weighed down risk off sentiments

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In a turnaround of events, INR depreciated by (-) 1.3% in May’25, after appreciating by 1.1% in Apr’25, and 2.4% in Mar’25

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Manufacturing PMI (ISM) in the US contracted for the 3rd straight month to 48.5 from 48.7 in Apr’25 raising concerns around manufacturing sector

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Centre’s fiscal deficit was at 4.8% in FY25, in line with government’s revised projections for FY25

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In Q4 FY25, aggregate net sales of a sample of 1,893 companies was recorded at 5.4%, while net profits rose by 7.6%

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The current easing cycle has been conducive for corporate bond market

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In US, core PCE (excl food and fuel), Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation softened to 2.5% in Apr’25 from 2.7% in Mar’25

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According to MOSPI, India’s real GDP has risen by 6.5% in FY25 and the nominal GDP has expanded by 9.8% for the same period

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Global markets are likely to get rattled from a Federal appellate ruling which favoured continuation of tariff against the earlier issued order of US Court that has deemed it to be illegal

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RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 8.2% to Rs 76 lakh crore in FY25 compared to Rs 70 lakh crore in FY24

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Among major developments, has been the ruling of US Court against US President’s tariff policies which have been deemed to be illegal

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IIP growth was lower at 2.7% in Apr’25 from 5.2% in Apr’24 and 3.9% in Mar’25

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Among major market developments have been the concern over volatility in Japanese super long bonds

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Global market sentiments lingered around start and stop policy approach of the US on tariff front

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On tariff front, US President agreed for an extension of deadline to EU before imposing 50% tariffs on imports, till 9 Jul from 1 Jun earlier

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Global flash PMIs show that while manufacturing activity picked up pace in the US in May’25 (52.3 versus 50.2 in Apr’25), it contracted at a slower pace in the Eurozone (49.4 versus 49), and at a steeper pace in the UK (45.1 versus 45.4)

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Investors remain wary of the fiscal health of the US government, as Trump administration plans to pass the new tax bill this week

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In a period of heightened global uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), lowered its policy rates by 25bps to 3.85%, in line with market expectations

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Moody’s has downgraded US sovereign credit rating by one notch from its highest level of ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’ and changed its outlook to “stable” from “negative”

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Consumer confidence in the US remains subdued as shown by University of Michigan index

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Global growth is expected to witness volatility on multiple fronts, ranging from uncertainty on global trade due to the positioning of global tariff, policy divergence across global central banks and escalating geopolitical tensions

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Preliminary data from the US reflects the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation

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Fed policymakers re-emphasised the need for caution amidst tariff driven uncertainty, even as they expressed confidence in the strength of labour market

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WPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 0.9% in Apr’25 compared with 1.2% in Apr’24

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US CPI rose less than expected by 0.2% in Apr’25 versus an estimated 0.3% increase (MoM), led by a marked moderation in food prices

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CPI inflation moderated to 3.2% in Apr’25 from 4.8% in Apr’24 driven by lower food inflation

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Global markets were buoyed by de-escalation in US-China trade war

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Global trade backdrop has turned more favourable this month as US finalised a trade deal with the UK

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Amidst tariff uncertainty and citing concerns around global economic slowdown, Bank of England lowered rate by 25bps to 4.25% with a 5-4 majority

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In line with expectations, US Fed unanimously voted to keep the interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%

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Ahead of the crucial meeting with US, China’s Central Bank PBoC has reduced lending rate by 25bps to 1.5%, its 7-day reverse purchase agreement is also down to 1.4% (by 10bps)

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BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI) continued its deceleration in Apr’25 as well, edging down by 0.2%, on YoY basis, slowest pace since Jan’19

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Global growth concerns resurfaced amidst the uncertainty on tariff front after US President Trump announced new tariffs

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Global growth and inflation outlook continues to be impacted by rapidly changing US tariff policies

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Signs of possible de-escalation of trade tensions between US and China supported global markets

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INR appreciated further by 1.1% in Apr’25, after appreciating by 2.4% in Mar’25

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Global bond yields broadly softened led by risk-off sentiments under the current scenario of volatile policy environment

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US-China trade tensions eased as both the nations expressed willingness to start trade negotiations

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Trade concerns eased marginally as the US President announced tweaks to auto tariffs, and US Commerce Chief hinted at the completion of a trade deal with a foreign trading partner

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Reports indicated that the US government is likely to announce some relief on auto tariffs

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IIP growth eased to 3% in Mar’25 from 5.5% in Mar’24 but inched up from 2.7% in Feb’25

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Amidst conflicting statements from US and China on trade negotiations, hopes that an all-out trade war between the two countries might be avoided, provided some relief to investors

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US macro data is pointing towards mixed trends in growth

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Latest flash PMIs indicate that manufacturing activity in the US improved in Apr’25 (50.7 from 50.2 in Mar’25), even as output prices rose to 29-month high, driven by tariffs

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IMF in its latest update on global economic outlook has acknowledged that the ongoing trade war will have a “major negative shock” on overall growth prospects

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Amidst escalating tariff war and rising tensions between the US government and the central bank, US stocks declined, dollar weakened, treasury yields inched up and gold prices also jumped

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US Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned markets by stating that tariffs are “likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation"

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Mapping new project announcements in FY25 (Apr’24-Mar’25), we note that companies and governments have shown the intent to invest Rs 38.3 lakh crore, which is second highest on record since FY96

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Global market is eyeing US-Japan tariff talks, anticipating some forthcoming negotiations

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India’s merchandise trade deficit expanded in FY25 to US$ 283bn compared with US$ 241bn in FY24

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In a major development on protectionism front, US has restricted a major technology company from selling a particular chip to China

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Food driven respite again provided CPI the desired band of comfort

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WPI inflation in Mar’25 rose by 2% from 0.3% in Mar’24

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Global markets went in for some consolidation being hopeful of negotiations on tariff front

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Global market volatility has increased significantly since the start of this month as US government announced broad-based tariff measures

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IIP growth slowed to 2.9% in Feb’25 from 5.6% in Feb’24 and 5.2% in Jan’25

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Investor confidence has taken a beating this week as global markets whip saw amidst the ongoing tariff turmoil

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The MPC delivered a 25bps rate cut for the second time in a row, bringing the policy rate to 6%

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As the timeline of new tariff draws closer, hopes of any possible concession on tariffs faded

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In a tit-for-tat approach, US has threatened China with additional tariffs of 50% if China doesn’t withdraw its retaliatory levy of 34% tariff

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BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI) continued its deceleration in Mar’25, edging down by 1.4%, on YoY basis

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Tensions of global trade war escalated further after China responded with retaliatory measures by imposing 34% tariffs on US imports

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India’s 10Y yield is again heading southward at a sharp pace

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Global markets were roiled with volatility especially in the last 6-months amidst uncertainty pertaining to tariffs and threat of global trade war looming

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US President has long advocated an America First policy, which involves boosting domestic production and reducing the dependence on imports

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Global markets reacted negatively to the new set of tariffs announced by the US, with a sharp sell-off visible in global equity and bonds market

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Sweeping blanket tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump will have a significant impact on global trade dynamics

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US President made good of his election promise as he announced sweeping tariffs on a majority of US’ trading partners

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As another financial year passes by, we assess how the spread of interest rates in India vis-à-vis the US has played out

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INR depreciated by 2.4% in FY25, after falling by 1.5% in FY24

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In the last financial year (Apr’24-Mar’25), it was interesting to see that while metal prices noted some significant increases, energy prices remained muted and agriculture products showed mixed trends

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Market focus remains firmly on developments surrounding President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs

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Uncertainty over US tariffs continues to weigh on investor sentiments ahead of the 2nd Apr deadline

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US GDP growth for Q4CY24 (3rd estimate) was revised upward to 2.4% from 2.3% earlier (3.1% in Q3)

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US durable goods orders in Feb’25 rose by 0.9% on MoM basis (est.: -1%) following 3.3% increase in Jan’25, as a result of front-loading of orders before tariffs were to be implemented

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US macro data is pointing towards diverging growth trends

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Flash global PMIs show that manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace in Mar’25 in the US (49.8 versus 52.7 in Feb’25) and UK (44.6 versus 46.9) and at a slower pace in Eurozone (48.7 versus 47.6)

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Trump administration has indicated that there might be some “flexibility” in terms of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US

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Global markets again turned jittery as Apr 2nd is nearing

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US Fed held policy rate steady, as anticipated

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Central banks are adopting a cautious and measured approach amidst ongoing tariff turmoil, seen globally

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US retail sales data rose at a less than expected pace in Feb’25 (0.2%, MoM against est.: 0.6%)

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WPI inflation rose a tad to 2.4% in Feb’25 from 2.3% in Jan’25, led by slower pace of contraction in fuel and power inflation and pick up in manufactured product inflation

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Global markets monitored slew of data releases

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US inflation cooled down to 2.8% (4-month low) in Feb’25 against an increase of 3% in Jan’25

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Manufacturing sector made a remarkable recovery and pushed IIP growth higher in Jan’25

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CPI inflation got the respite from a considerable correction in food inflation led by seasonality factors and better arrival statistics of TOP vegetables (Tomato, Onion and Potato)

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Global factors have increasingly come into play in shaping macro and market dynamics

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Trade tensions rose to an all-time high amidst tariff jitters and conflicting news which added to the volatility in the global markets

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The last two months have witnessed increasing frequency of conduct of VRR as an effective liquidity management tool

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Escalated concerns over the ongoing the tariff war along with fears of possible Federal government shutdown in the US, resulted in mounting anxieties over a risk of possible recession

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Interest coverage ratio (ICR) is an important indicator of soundness of financial health of a company

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China’s CPI slipped in to deflation for the first time since Jan’24 down to 0.7% in Feb’25 against an increase of 0.5% in Jan’25

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Global markets found some reprieve as US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed by another month

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) continued its deceleration in Feb’25 as well, moderating to 2.4%, on YoY basis

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US President exempted automakers from the 25% tariff imposed on Canada and Mexico for a month

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Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, announced by US President Donald Trump, have come into effect from this month

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Global trade war heated up with both Canada and China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US imports

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Uncertainty on global economic growth and heightened market volatility amidst lingering geopolitical tensions, tightening financial conditions and escalated concerns around possible impact of tariff war, has kept the global investors on the edge

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INR depreciated by 1% in Feb’25, marking its 5th straight monthly decline

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Global markets ended in upheaval as the US President moved forward with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while tariffs on China were hiked by 10%

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Bets of Fed rate cuts increased after US inflation and macro data

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Growth in bank credit (non-food) moderated in Jan’25, dipping to 11.4% compared with 20.4% in Jan’24

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Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 11.7 lakh crore as of Jan’25 (FYTD basis) which is 74.5% of the revised budget estimate, compared with 63.6% of the target achieved last year during the same period

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India’s GDP growth softened to 6.2% in Q3FY25, following 9.5% growth in Q3FY24

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Macro data from the US shows that growth held ground in Q4CY24 as second GDP estimate was left unrevised at 2.3%

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US data shows that new home sales in Jan’25 fell by (-) 10.5% (MoM basis) to 657k units (est.: 675k) from 734k units in Dec’24

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National election results of Germany posted no major surprise

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INR has tended to depreciate sharply in 2025, even though it has regained some lost ground in the past few sessions

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Global flash manufacturing PMIs for Feb’25 indicate that activity slowed less than expected in Eurozone (47.3 versus est.: 47), particularly in Germany (46.1 versus 45.5) and France (45.5 versus 45.3)

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Global markets sentiments hovered around ongoing tariff turmoil and anticipation of elevated borrowing costs

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The risk-off sentiments continued to dominate global markets

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IMF in its global growth outlook stated that it is on divergent path given the elevated policy uncertainty

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A host of central bank officials hinted at cautious approach amidst intensification of protectionism

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After touching record lows at the start of Feb’25, INR made a steady recovery in the last week

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Global yields in the first fortnight of Feb’25 reflected some risk off sentiments amid ongoing global protectionism

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Global markets remained watchful of the latest developments on global tariff front

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WPI inflation eased to 2.3% in Jan’25 from 2.4% in Dec’24, led by moderation in food inflation

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UK’s GDP expanded at a much faster pace than anticipated at 0.1% in Q4 against an estimate of (-) 0.1% contraction

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Hotter than expected US inflation has underscored Fed Chair’s recent testimony on being ‘patient with rate cuts’

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The interplay of both fiscal and monetary policy was evident with the Budget focussing on remaning fiscal prudent and shifting towards the debt-GDP ratio

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CPI inflation got the breather from a favourable correction in food inflation buoyed by seasonality factors and better supply side dynamics

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Tepid growth in manufacturing sector resulted in dragging down IIP growth lower at 3.2% in Dec’24 4 compared with a growth of 5.0% in Nov’24

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In his first hearing since the new President took office, US Fed Chair Powell in his remarks at the Senate reiterated there is no rush for rate cuts

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Global market signalled some resilience given the evolving conditions around the ongoing announcements of new tariffs on steel and aluminium, which will kick off in Mar’25

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Concerns around possible trade war escalated as US president Donald Trump warned of possible tariff imposition of 25% on steel and aluminium imports

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The MPC unanimously lowered the repo rate by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%

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Labour market in the US showed further signs of softening with jobless claims increasing to 219,000 (est. 213,000)

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Global markets continued to track evolving dynamics of US policies

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As expected, US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs (25%) on goods imported from Mexico and Canada

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A lot has changed since the last monetary policy meeting of RBI

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BoB’s Essential Commodity Index (ECI) exhibited a further downward momentum in Jan’25, dipping to 4% on a YoY basis, moderating from 5.4% in Dec’24

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Fears of a trade-war between the World’s largest economies, US and China continued to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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Continued uncertainty over US tariff policies kept global markets on edge

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Global markets have started the week on a tumultuous note, as threats of a global trade war have increased

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In the Union Budget for FY26, the focus of the government was on promoting consumption, manufacturing and employment

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The Economic Survey has set a prelude to the Budget

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Labour market in the US remains resilient, with initial jobless claims for the week ending 25 Jan 2025 falling to 207k (est.: 220k), down by 16k from the previous week

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In line with market expectations, US Fed held rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%

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Latest macro data from the US indicates some slowdown in economic momentum

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New home sales in the US rose by 3.6% in Dec’24 to 6.98mn units (est.: 6.75mn) from 6.74mn units in Nov’24

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Existing home sales in the US rose by 2.2% in Dec’24 to 4.24mn units (10-month high), even as house prices surged. However, on an annual basis, sales in CY24 were the lowest since CY95

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Global markets monitored US President’s comments at Davos which hinted at softer policy on tariffs, going ahead

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Global markets continued to digest the uncertainty over US President’s policies

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Global markets kept a hawk eye on future developments in US polices under the new administration

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For the fiscal year 2025-26, Union budget will skilfully balance fiscal consolidation, and measures for advancing growth

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Global markets awaited clarity on US President Donald Trump’s future policies

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IMF in its World Economic Outlook has revised global growth projection upwards to 3.3% in CY25, from 3.2% earlier

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The rupee has been quite volatile in the last two weeks with the tendency being more pronounced since the US Elections

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Following softening core inflation in Dec’24 in the US, now labour market data is pointing towards a weaker momentum

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UK and US CPI prints for Dec’24 have provided much need relief to the bond markets

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Both BoJ and US Fed are scheduled to announce their respective policy decisions later this month

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WPI inflation rose to 2.4% in Dec’24 from to 1.9% in Nov’24, led by increase in manufactured product inflation and slower pace of deceleration in fuel and power inflation

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Amidst US President-elect Trump’s tariff policy uncertainty, China’s exports have hit record high, as they rose by 10.7% (est.: 7.3%) in Dec’24, up from 6.7% in Nov’24

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CPI showed some softening led by food inflation

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Labour market in the US ended CY24 on solid ground, with non-farm employment rising by 256k in Dec’24

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IIP growth registered a robust growth of 5.2% in Nov’24 against a growth of 3.7% in Oct’24

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Advance estimates peg India’s growth at 6.4% for FY25.

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Global growth is expected to remain stable at 2.8% in 2025 (same as 2024) as per the UN World Economic and Prospects Report 2025

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Reports suggesting that the incoming US President may declare a national economic emergency to impose wide ranging tariffs soured investor sentiments

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US macro data once again underscored the need for keeping rates higher for longer

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 6.4% in FY25 growth compared with a growth of 8.2% in FY24

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Global composite PMI rose to 52.6 in Dec’24 from 52.4 in Nov’24, led by a steady expansion in services activity

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In Dec’24, BoB ECI witnessed a significant correction on a sequential basis and declined by 0.5%

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US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in Dec’24 (48.4 in Nov’24), just shy of the 50-mark

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At the end of 2024 US economy continued to give mixed signal regarding growth

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The year 2025 has begun on a note of heightened global uncertainties

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The year 2024 saw a stellar performance by global equity indices

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Global equity indices recorded stellar performance in 2024

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In the US, treasury yields remained elevated as market adjusted for the potential inflationary impact of the policies that will be laid down by incoming Trump administration

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Flash PMIs by Markit indicate manufacturing activity continues to deteriorate across US and Europe

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In the coming days, investors will turn their focus towards the US jobs report which might offer some guidance on the strength of the economy

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India’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q2FY25 from 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY24

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US jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 224,000 in the week ended 14 Dec 2024

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Movement in global markets remained muted due to thin holiday trading

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US core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment plans, rebounded strongly in Nov’24 and increased by 0.7%

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US core PCE index rose at a softer pace of 0.1% in Nov’24 after advancing by 0.3% last month (MoM), providing further cues of moderating price pressures

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US macro data shows that economy continues to remain strong, giving further merit to Fed’s higher for longer rates in CY25

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In line with market expectations, US Fed reduced policy rates by 25bps to 4.25-4.5%, bringing the cumulative cuts since Sep’24 to 100bps

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US retail sales rose by 0.7% (MoM) in Nov’24, up from 0.5% in Oct’24

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Markit flash PMIs show that manufacturing activity remains under stress in Europe and US

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WPI inflation eased to 1.9% in Nov’24 from 2.4% in Oct’24

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Economic activity in China remains worrisome, as both consumption and investment demand fades

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US PPI data showed stickiness on a MoM basis buoyed by food

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US CPI data firmed up by 0.3% in Nov’24 against 0.2% in Oct’24, on a sequential basis

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Global markets monitored a slew of political and macro developments

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CPI inflation in China eased to 0.2% in Nov’24 (est. 0.5%) from 0.3%, signalling continued weakness in domestic demand

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India’s GDP growth for Q2FY25 moderated to 5.4% in Q2FY25 much lower than anticpated

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In the US, payroll data showed some aberration as it went up to 227K in Nov’24 from 36K last month

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The MPC with a 4-2 majority kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5%

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OPEC+ in its highly anticipated meeting decided to postpone the output hike by over 3 months on the back of weak demand and rising output levels outside the group

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed moderation in Nov’24 both on a sequential and YoY basis

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Following the results of Presidential election in the US, market volatility significantly increased across the globe

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US Fed’s Beige book noted the underlying strength in the economy as economic activity expanded moderately in Nov’24

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A new political upheaval unfolded in South Korea after to and fro on the imposition of martial law

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India has recently witnessed a lot of buzz surrounding the flocking of international pop, rock, EDM and other popular genre artists to cater to the music enthusiast

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Political turmoil unfolded in France as the current government is on the brink of a potential collapse

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INR continues to remain under pressure and traded at record low in Nov’24

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RBI’s monthly data showed a moderation in credit growth across sectors in Oct’24

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Moderation in US 10Y yield occurred because of risk alignment surrounding political developments in the region which has resulted in higher demand for sovereign debt assets

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US President-elect Trump recently made comments on the so called ‘BRICS nation’ with a warning of not creating a new currency that could replace dollar or else they will have to face 100% tariffs

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According to the recently released estimates, the Q2FY25 GDP growth has been at a 7-quarter low on the back of softness in manufacturing sector

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India’s GDP growth softened to 5.4% in Q2FY25, following 8.1% growth in Q2FY24

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Trading volumes in global markets were largely muted as US markets remained closed for Thanksgiving holidays

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US GDP growth was left unchanged at 2.8% in Q3CY24 led by buoyant consumer spending (3.5%)

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Fed minutes indicated the FOMC members broadly agree on going easing on future rate cuts

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Investors’ focus remained firmly on developments in the US

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Flash PMIs signalled a sharp deterioration in economic activity in both the Eurozone and UK, even as US economy continued to power ahead led by the buoyant services sector

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US labour market data shows that continuing claims (4-week moving average), a better indicator for gauging labour market conditions, rose by 5k to 1.88mn to reach its highest level since end-Nov’21

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In view of elevated mortgage rates in the US, single-family housing starts fell by 6.9% in Oct’24 to 970k units

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As economic calendar remains tepid so far, market participants are monitoring statements of central bank officials and appointments made by Trump administration for future guidance

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UK’s economy contracted by (-) 0.1% in Sep’24 on a monthly basis after increasing by 0.2% in Aug’24

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INR has remained under pressure and traded near a record low for most of the sessions in Nov’24

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India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a 13-month high of US$ 27.1bn in Oct’24, led by a pickup in oil and gold imports

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WPI inflation rose to 2.4% in Oct’24 compared with 1.8% in Sep’24 led by elevated food inflation

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US CPI remained in line with estimates, albeit pace of disinflation slowed

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A stronger dollar weighed on currency indices

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CPI surprised on the upside led by food inflation

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IIP growth rose by 3.1% in Sep’24, following (-) 0.1% decline in Aug’24

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Global markets continued to weigh in a stronger dollar and protectionist policy, post US Presidential Election results

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A sweeping victory has brought back Donald Trump to the White House for the second time

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In the run-up to Presidential elections in the US, market volatility was heightened as it was presumed to be a close race between Trump and Harris

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Global markets remained watchful ahead of the key data releases in the current week (inflation reading in US and Eurozone, growth print in UK and Japan and retail sales and industrial production in China)

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US Presidential election results gave a clear mandate to Trump

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In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rates by 25bps to 4.5-4.75%, in view of easing labour market conditions

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed significant upswing both on a sequential and YoY basis

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In a tight race between Trump and Harris, President elect Trump proved to be a clear winner

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Globally, all eyes are set on US Presidential election results as voting ends

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As final voting date for US Presidential election nears, there remains heightened uncertainty regarding the outcome

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INR depreciated by 0.3% in Oct’24 (0.1% appreciation in Sep’24) and even fell to its lifetime low of 84.09/$

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Upward rally in US 10Y steered other global yields

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US labour market data is pointing towards a slowdown, as non-farm payrolls rose by only 12k in Oct’24 versus est.: 113k increase

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Global markets remained on edge monitoring host of macro data releases

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Global markets monitored slew of corporate earnings which remained upbeat

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Global markets were largely upbeat as investors monitored corporate earnings

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US economy continued to show signs of resilience

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Flash US PMI noted the growing strength in the economy (54.3 from 54 in Sep’24) supported by uptick in business activity, with growth driven by services sector

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Fed’s Beige book report noted the economic activity across the country has been sluggish with consumers holding off their spending decision until the elections

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IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook stated the global growth is expected to be stable but ‘underwhelming’ at 3.2% in CY24 and CY25, unchanged from the Apr’24 report

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Recent commentary by Fed officials brought focus back on the trajectory of interest rates

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Major data releases form China lifted hopes of a possible rebound in the economy

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Global markets monitored slew of macro releases

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed down in Sep’24 on a sequential basis, led by a downward correction in gold imports

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Global macro indicators showed signs of weakness

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Global equity indices were impacted by a downward rally in tech stocks driven by weakness in semiconductor sector

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INR depreciated by 0.3% in the first fortnight of Oct’24

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Global currency market lost its breather amidst a firming dollar as expectations got build up over a cautious neutral stance by Fed

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CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned

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WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation

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US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained

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IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect

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US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%

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Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005

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The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%

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Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”

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Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier

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US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country

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RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran

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US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase

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The global yields largely softened in Sep’24

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet

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As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season

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INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24

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Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate

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Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut

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India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24

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Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%

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US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures

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Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore

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Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy

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OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25

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Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages

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In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%

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Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%

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Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions

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Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance

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Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps

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WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$

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Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed

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Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)

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In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)

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IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector

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CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24

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Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month

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Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today

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South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)

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As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum

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US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month

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Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24

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Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure

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Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24

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Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring

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US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector

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Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024

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Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24

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INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$

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Most of global yields eased in Aug’24

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US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24

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Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24

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India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24

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US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy

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The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision

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Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024

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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24

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In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24

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In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’

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Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024

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Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials

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Global markets had a breather to some extent

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India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced

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Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)

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WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24

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Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024

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In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24

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CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base

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Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting

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Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth

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US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded

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The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy

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Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable

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Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy

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The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession

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Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24

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A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024

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Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark

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INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$

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Global yields softened further in Jul’24

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US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row

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Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24

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Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year

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In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme

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Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024

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In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed

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Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation

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Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases

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Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy

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All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024

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Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened

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In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.

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Global markets still centred around political developments in the US

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Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons

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Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators

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The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047

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A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21

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Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports

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Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024

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The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24

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INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$

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WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation

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China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1

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The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047

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US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24

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India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years

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Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24

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While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts

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Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy

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The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024

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This month remains crucial

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US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24

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Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure

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The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24

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A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut

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Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24

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US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24

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INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month

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Global yields continued their downward trajectory

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As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low

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Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened

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India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well

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Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US

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India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country

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Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases

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Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals

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In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play

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Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high

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In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)

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In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%

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Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)

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Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold

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INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$

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The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits

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WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices

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Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24

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US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis

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CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky

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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation

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World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier

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Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery

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Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut

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US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market

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MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)

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Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year

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Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24

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JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21

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US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production

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In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$

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Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo

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US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24

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Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23

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A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe

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Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period

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Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic

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Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge

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Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24

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Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes

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RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24

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Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates

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When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment

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Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation

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While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts

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INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%

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Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies

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CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)

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US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs

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WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24

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Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data

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CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers

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Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut

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IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024

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Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24

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China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels

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Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24

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Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year

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Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24

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US labour market data showed persistent tightening

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US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations

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Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month

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Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth

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Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23

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In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy

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India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector

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As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning

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Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel

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Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets

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IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies

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Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East

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India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24

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IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal

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In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally

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Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates

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World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha

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ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark

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In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24

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US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24

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In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals

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Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24

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Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture

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Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance

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In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously

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An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly

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US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3

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In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500

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INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months

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The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting

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Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24

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In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25

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In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)

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Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks

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A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe

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In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%

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Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world

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Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts

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Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)

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In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%

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Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24

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INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24

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PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices

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WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24

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In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities

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Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts

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CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%

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Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward

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India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience

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US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis

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Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year

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US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24

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Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024

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Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure

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Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24

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According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24

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Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments

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Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks

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INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%

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Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23

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Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)

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US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier

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Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23

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New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23

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Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)

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Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions

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Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy

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India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters

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Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked

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Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today

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Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23

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INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year

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In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important

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Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed

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The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24

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An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts

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WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23

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Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23

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A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates

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CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%

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The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends

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Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates

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India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well

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In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k

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MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis

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In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed

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On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23

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IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23

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Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes

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Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)

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INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023

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Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote

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In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions

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In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24

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IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25

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As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold

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A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy

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US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3

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Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity

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With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation

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Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy

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Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations

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Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy

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Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy

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A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)

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In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand

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WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23

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The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)

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CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)

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Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23

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After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023

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Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments

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Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high

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Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate

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India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture

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Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors

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Global markets are again re-thinking their positions

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis

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Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up

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FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment

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Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI

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US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions

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Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23

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The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24

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Deposits held with SCBs

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The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles

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A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared

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RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report

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Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates

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Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts

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With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin

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Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week

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Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool

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Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions

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The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24

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Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy

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Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks

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Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year

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WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23

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US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone

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The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates

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CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%

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Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies

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US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)

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India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong

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MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies

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Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before

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A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24

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Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23

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Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected

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Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3

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US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23

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Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23

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Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low

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Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year

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India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations

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A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts

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Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year

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India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24

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China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)

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India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space

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US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23

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Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)

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India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent

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Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone

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Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc

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A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession

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Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective

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Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%

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Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking

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A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked

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US economy continued to show some softening

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FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing

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Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets

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CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market

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On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity

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Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower

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Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase

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As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist

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As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23

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Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note

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India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024

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Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23

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Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)

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Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront

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Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth

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US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility

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INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady

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Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates

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Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions

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BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program

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US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23

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ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22

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US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%

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India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA

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Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23

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Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market

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When we talk about monetary policy cycles, the first thing which pops up in our mind is how these interest rate decisions will impact borrowing costs

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Conflict in the Middle-East continued to garner investors’ attention, leading to higher demand of safe assets such as dollar and gold

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INR has remained under pressure amidst a deterioration in the global economic environment

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Investors monitored macro data even as tensions in Middle-East continued to simmer

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Global markets continued to monitor the evolving dynamics in the Middle East as the war continued for the 11th day

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US consumer sentiment index as measured by the University of Michigan moderated significantly to 63 in Oct’23 (est. 67.2) versus 68.1 in Sep’23

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US CPI came in higher than expected (0.4%in Sep’23 on MoM basis) led by acceleration in shelter cost (0.6% from 0.3%) and services (0.6% from 0.4%)

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Investors wagered that US interest rates have peaked, this was supported by recent dovish commentary of Fed officials

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India’s growth story is expected to maintain its resilience led by festival demand

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Concerns around Middle East conflict eased marginally as investor continued to monitor the developments

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State governments recently concluded their borrowing program for Q2FY24 and announced planned borrowing for Q3FY24

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Widening of the conflict in Middle East weighed in on the investor sentiments as global markets remained attuned to the turmoil

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Often when we talk about the non-financial sector, an important indicator to look at is the capacity utilization rate

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Investors assessed the US jobs report for Sep’23 as non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in the month, much more than was anticipated by the analysts

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1.8% in Sep’23 compared to 0.7% increase seen in Aug’23, on a sequential basis

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RBI’s policy came out on expected lines with both stance and rates being kept on hold

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Correction in global yields continued. In the US, jobless claims data came in less than expected at 207K (est.: 210K)

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Investment picture in FYTD24 i.e. H1FYTD24 has remained fuzzy

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Macro data points from the US, China are showing that economy is maintaining momentum /recovering, while in Eurozone and UK weakness in activity persists

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Some correction was visible in global equity and bond markets led by softening macros worldwide

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India is set to host the ICC-Men’s World Cup, for the first time since 2011

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Global yields witnessed quite a bit off sell off both in Sep’23 and in Oct’23 (till 3 Oct 2023)

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Sell off in the bond market continued with US 10Y yield rising by 12bps to its highest level since 2007

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US PCE deflator closely tracked by Fed to gauge underlying price pressure rose at a sharper pace by 0.4% in Aug’23 compared to 0.2% in Jul’23, on MoM basis

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 6 Oct 2023, we expect MPC to maintain a hawkish pause and keep the rates unchanged

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US durable goods orders bounced back in Aug’23, posting 0.2% increase versus est.: -0.5% decline and reviving from fall of -5.6% in Jul’23

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After a long wait, India was finally included in JP Morgan’s global bond market index

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Chances of soft landing of the US economy have increased with new home sales and consumer confidence taking a hit

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The cumulative rainfall activity for the country remains in deficit at 5% below LPA, as of 25 Sep 2023

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Uncertainty around US government shutdown, slated to begin from 1 Oct 2023, is causing new worries

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Flash PMIs for major economies show that services activity in the US slowed unexpectedly, while in UK it continues to weaken further in Sep’23

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Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates

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In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%

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US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand

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US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23

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INR depreciated to a fresh record-low of 83.18/$ on 15 Sep 2023 led by a confluence of adverse shocks of rising dollar, higher oil prices and FPI outflows

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For the period till date (upto 15 Sep’23), monsoon activity is in deficit zone at 9% below LPA

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China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23)

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Aug’23, although its pace slowed, as it fell to (-) 0.5% compared with (-) 1.4% in Jul’23

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Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23)

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Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates

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CPI print remained broadly aligned with our estimate of 6.9% in Aug’23 and came in at 6.8% far lower compared to 7.4% seen in Jul’23

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Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy

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To augment funds, banks have relied on alternative sources, one of which is through issuance of Certificate of Deposits or CDs

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India’s South-West monsoon cumulatively stands at 10% below LPA till 11 Sep 2023.

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In China, as an encouraging sign towards economic recovery, deflationary pressure eased after CPI returned back in to the positive territory (+0.1% vs -0.3% in Jul’23)

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Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions

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US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy

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The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has moderated to 0.7% in Aug’23 and further has fallen by 1.7% in Sep’23, on a sequential basis

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China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1

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Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below LPA

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US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market

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Macro data points from the US, Europe and China and are showing that weakness in manufacturing and services activity still persists

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US 10Y yield has pared most of its increase in Aug’23 as major growth indicators remained patchy

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After depreciating to a record-low during the month, INR made a smart recovery to end the month only marginally lower

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Past data indicates that over 90% of kharif sowing is completed by August end

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Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain

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India’s GDP rose by 7.8% in Q1FY24, following 6.1% growth in Q4FY23

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Macro data from major economies once again fuelled fears of a slowdown in growth. In US, private payrolls (177k versus est. 195k) and second revised estimates of Q2CY23 GDP (2.1% versus est. 2.4%) missed market expectations

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Job openings data (JOLTS) for the US showed that openings dropped to 2.5 year low in Jul’23 to 8.83mn (est.: 9.45mn), down from 9.17mn in Jun’23

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India has been witnessing deficient rainfall in the month of August and it stands at 32% below LPA compared with a 13% (above LPA) surplus rainfall received back in July

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Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions

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Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23

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Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole

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Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector

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Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown

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Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds

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Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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For the cumulative period till 18th August, India’s South West Monsoon is down by 6% below LPA (3% below LPA last week) compared with 9% surplus last year for the same period

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After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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US 10Y yield has risen considerably post the last Fed policy meeting (26 Jul)

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INR closed at a record low of 83.15/$ yesterday, just short of an intra-day low of 83.24/$ in Oct’22

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Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy

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Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge

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CPI print surprised way above expectation at 7.44%, and was the highest since Apr-22

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India’s South West Monsoon slowed down marginally to 3% below LPA (5% surplus last week) compared with 8% surplus last year for the same period

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US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23

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US CPI data remained comforting

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In a unanimous decision, MPC members have decided to keep the policy rates on hold, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Investors remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI data, where a sequential pickup of 0.2% is expected both for headline print and core CPI

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Capital expenditure by the government continues to remain the key driver of economic growth in the last few years

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Adding to further woes, China’s inflation data softened considerably in Jul’23

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The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in the upcoming policy meet

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Global macro indicators showed some degree of softening

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More macro data now points towards slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jul’23

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US jobs report showed some degree of softening as it rose by 187k (slowest pace since Dec’20) and less than expectation of 200K

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has picked up sharply by 4.9% (MoM) and 6.5% (YoY) in Jul’23

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All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 5% above LPA as of 4 Aug2023

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In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level

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Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt

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Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management

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Growth remained comparatively on better footing for US, Eurozone and India; thus risk on sentiments led firming up of yields of these economies

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Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates

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The intensity of rainfall has pushed South-West monsoon higher at 6% (above LPA) till 30 Jul 2023

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Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years

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In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY23 and FY24, we start by looking at the trends in fiscal balance of states

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Global growth and inflation continue to show diverging trends

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Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged

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During the peak of Covid-19 pandemic, a phenomenon which gained prominence amongst Indian corporates was deleveraging-or a decline in overall debt

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In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high

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India is amongst top 5 importers of crude oil across the globe

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IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector

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Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress

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India’s South-West monsoon has gathered momentum with higher rainfall at 5% (above LPA) till 23 Jul 2023

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Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week

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Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k)

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UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23

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US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23

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As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3

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Even as hopes of a prolonged pause by Fed have increased, some members still remain hawkish

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India’s South-West monsoon continues to engulf the entire country resulting in higher rainfall at 1% (above LPA) till 14 Jul 2023

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 57.6bn in Q1FY24 from US$ 62.6bn in the same period last year

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Jun’23 as it fell to (-) 4.1% from (-) 3.5% in May’23

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In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected

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Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers

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CPI print rose more than expected by 4.8%

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Global macro data remained mixed

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Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level

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Advancement of South-West monsoon across the entire country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% (above LPA) till 9 Jul 2023

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Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23

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Inflation concerns in India reignited with some upswing in vegetable prices especially tomato (0.57% wt in CPI) and onion (0.64% wt in CPI)

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Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes

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Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent

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Markets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike

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Continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jun’23 (at 6-month low of 48.8) and drop business optimism index to 7-month low, has reignited fears of global growth slowdown

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Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave

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Indian economy remains a favored place for investment as has been reflected by strong FPI flows in the past few months

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State governments in Q1FY24 borrowed Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the market, lower than the planned amount of Rs 2 lakh crore, but higher than Q1FY23’s Rs 1.1 lakh crore

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Buoyant FPI inflows and a weaker dollar pushed INR 0.8% higher in Jun’23

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The reiteration of hawkish tone by central banks in US, Eurozone and UK have led to sell off in the bond market

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Tomato prices are again on a spiral. On sequential basis, the average retail price of tomato went up by 38.5% in Jun’23

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) showed a slight uptick by 1.2% in Jun’23 on sequential basis, however, much of it is attributed to seasonality

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Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation

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Global central banks are likely to continue raising rates as the fight against inflation seem far from over

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US macro data indicated that the economy remains on strong footing

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It is often blurry when we speak of the investment picture of Indian economy

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Household savings are a critical part of the growth process as they provide the funding required for the same

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India’s CAD widened to -2% of GDP in FY23 from -1.2% of GDP in FY22

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Global central bank policies continue to remain the underlying theme driving market movements in the last few sessions

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Fresh fears of a global economic downturn emerged after flash composite PMIs of Japan (4-month low), US (3-month low), UK (3-month low) and Eurozone (5-month low) showed a slowdown

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BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale

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The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations

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Using the data largely from RBI’s report on Trend and Progress in Banking 2021-22, this study attempts to look at the performance of Non-Bank Financial Corporations (NBFCs) in the last few years and compares the same with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)

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US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23

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The onset of South West monsoon was delayed this year by more than a week against expectation (1st Jun)

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Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut)

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Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy

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Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation

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US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle

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WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in May’23 as it fell to (-) 3.5% from (-) 0.9% in Apr’23, thus dropping to its 7.5 year low

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In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23

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In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%

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CPI print cooled off to its lowest since Apr’21 to 4.3% in May’23

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan

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India’s GDP data confirmed that economic growth remains on firm ground

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Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle

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MPC members today again unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high

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Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels

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Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2023, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged

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Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23

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After increasing by 15% in Mar’23, bank credit growth picked up further to 15.9% in Apr’23

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The corporate sector recorded a fairly steady performance in Q4 of FY23 though growth in sales and net profits slowed down relative to last year

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CPI print for May’23 is due to be released

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Global growth expected to slow down in 2023, led by Advanced Economies

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Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22

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Downward revision to Germany’s Q1CY23 GDP (-0.3% versus -0.5% in Q4CY22) has reignited fears of global growth slowdown on account of elevated prices, and aggressive tightening by central banks

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Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off

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UK and US 10Y yields’ noticed quite a sharp upturn in May’23

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INR depreciated in May’23 amidst renewed dollar strength

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Commercial Paper (CP) issuances have carved an important space historically and remained a preferred choice for better rated corporates for raising capital in a cost effective way from the market

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Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report

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Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22.

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Centre’s fiscal position in FY23 came in line with government’s revised projections for FY23

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Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation

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Global economic outlook both for CY23 and CY24 looks benign on account of lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, subdued private investment, and geo economic shifts impacting capital flows and persistent elevated inflation

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Global markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline)

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Surrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher

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Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23

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FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy

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US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy

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Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates

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RBI in its notification dated 19 May 2023 has announced gradual withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes from the system; albeit stating that it continues to be a legal tender

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Fed Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis

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After remaining stable for most part of the last few months, INR has come under pressure in the last few sessions

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US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k)

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US housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement

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Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23

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As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased

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WPI inflation continues went into contraction in Apr’23 as it came in at (-) 0.9%, down from 1.3% in Mar’23

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Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer

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CPI print cooled off to 18-month low in Apr’23 to 4.7% against 5.7% in Mar’23

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US macro data points to a slowdown

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Fed’s latest decision signalling a prolonged pause has helped ease pressure on both domestic yields and currency

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US CPI data on a sequential basis remained sticky rising by 0.4%, in Apr’23 from 0.1% in Mar’23 (est.: 0.4%)

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Fed officials reflected divergent tone about course of Fed rate

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Amongst major developments has been better than expected exports growth in China by 8.5% in Apr’23 (est.: 8%), albeit slower compared to 14.8% growth in Mar’23, on YoY basis

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Inflation indices in India are presented on a monthly basis at both the wholesale and retail levels

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Global markets monitored US payroll data, which remained buoyant with non- farm payroll rising by 253K in Apr’23 from 165K in Mar’23 and against est.: level of 185K

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US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation

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Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks

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GDP data for Q1CY23 shows that while major economies have avoided a recession (most feared in case of Europe), slowdown in activity still continues

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Global bond yields traded mixed in Apr’23 influenced by varied macros

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A string of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes

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Global economy was once again beginning to stare at the possibility of economic slowdown as fears re-emerged over the possibility of economic recession in US owing to another banking crisis

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In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22

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US data showed a mixed picture of the economy

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Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits

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Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy

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The performance of Indian stock market (Nifty) in FY23 when compared with last year has not been up to mark

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Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector

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India and US 10Y yield differential is seen inching up since March’23

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Latest US data shows that existing home sales have again begun to decline in Mar’23 (4.4mn units versus est.: 4.5mn and 4.6mn in Feb’23)

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Fed’s beige book indicates that economic activity remains broadly unchanged

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Investment picture in FY23 was fuzzy

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US housing starts are seen stabilising on the hopes of Fed pausing its rate hike cycle this year (expected from Jun’23)

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DXY fell by 0.9% in Apr’23 so far as expectations that the Fed is nearing an end to its rate hike cycle gained momentum

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Latest data from China points that reopening of the economy has helped GDP growth as it rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Q1CY23 (est.: 4%) from 2.9% in Q4

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WPI inflation continues to decelerate at a faster pace than CPI and was down to 1.3% in Mar’23 compared with 3.9% in Feb’23

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Macro data in the US is giving mixed signals, pointing out that the economy may not be slowing as much as anticipated

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Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices

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CPI print in Mar’23 got comfort from a favourable statistical base

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent report has flagged risks to the global growth recovery

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All eyes were around the surprise pause delivered by RBI

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IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy

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Amidst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23

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US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23

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MPC members today unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, after hiking continuously since May’22

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Global growth is showing signs of slowdown as mixed economic data is being reported from the US and China

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Disappointing data reading from US (ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment) continues to signal slowdown in US economy

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Sluggish US data (shrinking manufacturing activity and lower jobs opening) pulled down the dollar index and raised hope of Fed nearing the end of rate tightening cycle

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Fed’s gauge of inflation data (PCE: down to 5% in Feb’23 against 5.3% in Jan’23) surprised positively

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In the wake of rising interest rates scenario, Government has followed suit by jacking up the rates on small savings schemes for Q11FY24

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Global bond yields fell sharply in Mar’23 following the banking crisis

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Driven by a weakness in DXY, global currencies appreciated

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Centre has come up with its H1FY24 borrowing calendar

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Global markets monitored key macro data releases and comments from major Fed officials

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India’s external sector is ending FY23 on a much more strong footing than what was expected at the start of the year

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Global currency and bond markets got breather from the recent comments of officials

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Global markets gained comfort from announcement of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company will purchase all loans and deposits of Silicon Valley Bank

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Timely actions by global Central Banks has kept the lid over the ongoing challenges in the financial system

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In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes

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The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading

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Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions

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In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%

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Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation

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Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23

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Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic

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Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse

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The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes

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In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23

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WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23

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Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank

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Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort

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The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year

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In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures

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IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023

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In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also

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Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out

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Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession

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Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy

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Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23

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Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year

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Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally

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Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far

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Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation

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Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate

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Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes

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A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate

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Global macro indicators remained mixed

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Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)

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High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed

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