Research Reports

14-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Inflation picks up

CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned

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14-Oct-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation scales up

WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation

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14-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained

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11-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Industrial production dips

IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect

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11-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%

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10-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005

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09-Oct-24

BOB Economics | RBI MPC: Cautious yet dovish

The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%

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09-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”

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08-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier

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07-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country

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07-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Sectoral Credit-Aug’24

RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24

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07-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Inflation may surprise on the upside

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24

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04-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran

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03-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

The global yields largely softened in Sep’24

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Status quo for now

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon begins to retreat

As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2024

Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate

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01-Oct-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut

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30-Sep-24

BOB Economics | India’s CAD at comfortable level

India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24

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30-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Does Fed decision impact those of other central banks?

Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%

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30-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures

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27-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Borrowing Calendar

Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore

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27-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy

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26-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25

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25-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages

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24-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%

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23-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%

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23-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Credit and Economic growth: India story

Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions

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20-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance

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19-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps

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17-Sep-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases to 4-month low

WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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17-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$

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17-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed

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16-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)

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16-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)

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12-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Industrial production stable

IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector

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12-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Inflation inches up marginally

CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24

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12-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month

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11-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today

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10-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)

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10-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum

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09-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month

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06-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24

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06-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market

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05-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Inflation likely to subside

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure

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05-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24

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04-Sep-24

BOB Economics | The consumer goods industry in Q1-FY25

Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring

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04-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector

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03-Sep-24

BOB Economics Research | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024

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03-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24

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02-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Currency update

INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$

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02-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Bonds wrap

Most of global yields eased in Aug’24

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02-Sep-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24

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30-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth

Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24

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30-Aug-24

BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy

India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24

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30-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy

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29-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision

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28-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024

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28-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24

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27-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24

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26-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’

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23-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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22-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data

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21-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024

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21-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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20-Aug-24

BOB Economics | MF/BD - The new age shift?

Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention

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20-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials

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19-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets had a breather to some extent

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18-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q1-FY25

India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced

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16-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24

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15-Aug-24

BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: FYTD25

India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)

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14-Aug-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases

WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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14-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24

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13-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024

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13-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24

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12-Aug-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eases, IIP growth cools

CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base

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12-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting

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09-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Food inflation – breaker for rate cut

Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth

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09-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded

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08-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Status quo with hawkish undertones

The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy

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08-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable

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07-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy

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06-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession

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05-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24

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05-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed

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03-Aug-24

BOB Economics | “Top”pling inflation

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum

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03-Aug-24

BOB Economics | No change in rate or stance

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24

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03-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024

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02-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark

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01-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$

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01-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields softened further in Jul’24

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01-Aug-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row

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31-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth

Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24

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31-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Government finances in Q1 FY25

Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year

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31-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme

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30-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024

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30-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed

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29-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation

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26-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases

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25-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy

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24-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024

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24-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened

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23-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25

In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.

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23-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets still centred around political developments in the US

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22-Jul-24

BOB Economics | The Equity Rush

Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons

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22-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Global Fiscal Analysis

Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators

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22-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2023-24

The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047

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22-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally

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19-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21

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18-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground

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16-Jul-24

BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: Q1-FY25

India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports

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16-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024

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16-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24

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15-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$

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15-Jul-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates

WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation

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15-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1

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12-Jul-24

BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation

The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047

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12-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24

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11-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Impact of commodities with high inflationary potential

India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years

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11-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24

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10-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts

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09-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy

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08-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update

The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024

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08-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon and Budget developments to drive markets

This month remains crucial

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08-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24

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05-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Stamp Duty: Do collections reflect health of real estate sector?

Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure

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05-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24

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04-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut

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03-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24

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03-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24

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02-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month

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02-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields continued their downward trajectory

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02-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low

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01-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened

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01-Jul-24

BOB Economics | Trends in remittances

India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well

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28-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US

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27-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Impact of Heatwave: India’s ongoing heatwave

India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country

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27-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases

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26-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals

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25-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play

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24-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high

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21-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)

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20-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%

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19-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)

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18-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold

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18-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Currency update

INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$

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14-Jun-24

BOB Economics | NRI deposits trend

The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits

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14-Jun-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation at a 15-month high

WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices

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14-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24

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13-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis

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13-Jun-24

BoB Economics - Food inflation: A key risk

CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky

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12-Jun-24

First Light | Monthly Chartbook

Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation

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12-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier

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11-Jun-24

BoB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation

Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery

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11-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut

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10-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market

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07-Jun-24

BOB Economics | RBI retains rates

MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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07-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)

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06-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q4FY24

Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year

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06-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24

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05-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24

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05-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21

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04-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production

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03-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$

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03-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy

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03-Jun-24

BOB Economics | RBI to hold rates

In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo

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03-Jun-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24

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31-May-24

BOB Economics | GDP growth soars in FY24

Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23

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31-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe

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30-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period

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29-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic

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28-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge

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27-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24

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24-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes

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22-May-24

BOB Economics | RBI dividend at record high

RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24

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22-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates

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21-May-24

BOB Economics | How different sectors fared in terms of capital formation:

When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment

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21-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation

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17-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies

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16-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)

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15-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs

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14-May-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates

WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24

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14-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | Food inflation; still overpowering

CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | A likely surge in FPI Flow (Debt)

The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers

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13-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut

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10-May-24

BOB Economics | IIP growth eases in Mar’24

IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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10-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024

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09-May-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon holds the key

Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24

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09-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels

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08-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24

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07-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year

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06-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24

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03-May-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24

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03-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data showed persistent tightening

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02-May-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations

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30-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month

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29-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth

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26-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23

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25-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy

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24-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector

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23-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning

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22-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel

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19-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets

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18-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies

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16-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade in FY24

India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | IMD-Forecast for South West Monsoon

IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation picks up pace

Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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15-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic resilience continues

Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates

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12-Apr-24

BOB Economics | India’s General Election-2024

World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha

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12-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark

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10-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24

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08-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24

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05-Apr-24

BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold

In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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05-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals

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04-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2024

Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24

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04-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture

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03-Apr-24

BOB Economics | RBI to remain static

Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance

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03-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously

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02-Apr-24

BOB Economics | CC Dynamics-Consumption and Credit picture

An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly

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02-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Year End - Equity market performance

In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting

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01-Apr-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24

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28-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25

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27-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)

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26-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks

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22-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe

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21-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%

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20-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Global central banks actions in retrospect

Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world

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20-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts

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19-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How has the equity market performed?

Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)

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19-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%

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18-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24

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17-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review

INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24

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15-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation at its lowest since Oct’23

WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Trends in ownership of government debt

In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities

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14-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts

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12-Mar-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Food inflation a discomfort

CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%

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12-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward

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11-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth continues to impress

India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience

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11-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24

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07-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Feb’24

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis

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07-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year

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06-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Analysis of the liquidity deficit

Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | How has State capex fared in FYTD24?

Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure

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05-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | GDP expectations for FY25

According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%

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04-Mar-24

BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far

Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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01-Mar-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23

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29-Feb-24

BOB Economics | GDP growth to ascend to 7.6% in FY24

Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)

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29-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier

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28-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23

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27-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23

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26-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)

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23-Feb-24

BOB Economics | GDP to grow by 6.4% in Q3FY24

Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions

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23-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy

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22-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q3FY24

India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters

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22-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked

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21-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today

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20-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23

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19-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Foreign Trade (April-January)

India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | How Lifestyle Inflation rate has moved

In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important

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16-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed

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15-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Status of infrastructure projects

An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation slows down

WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23

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14-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23

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13-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation

CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Study on Personal Loans

The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends

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12-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates

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09-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key

India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well

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09-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k

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08-Feb-24

BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold

MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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08-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome

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07-Feb-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Jan’24

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis

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07-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed

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06-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23

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05-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2024

IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23

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05-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes

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03-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)

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03-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023

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02-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote

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01-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25

In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions

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01-Feb-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24

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31-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25

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30-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold

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29-Jan-24

BOB Economics | What production and price data of consumer goods say?

A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy

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29-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3

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25-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity

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24-Jan-24

BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation

With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation

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24-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy

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23-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations

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19-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy

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18-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy

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17-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)

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16-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand

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15-Jan-24

BOB Economics | WPI inflation creeping up

WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23

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15-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Some degree of comfort on inflation

CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Global Commodity price movements in 2023

Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Trend in FPI flows

After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023

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12-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments

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11-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high

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10-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Household credit, a stimulus to growth?

Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar

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10-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate

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09-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key

India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture

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09-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors

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08-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are again re-thinking their positions

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | FY24 growth estimated to surge to 7.3%

NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | How prices look in Dec’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis

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05-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up

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04-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment

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03-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI

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02-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2023

US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions

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02-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | SCB’s fortnightly performance

Deposits held with SCBs

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Sectoral growth in Credit – November 2023

The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | How transmission has fared?

A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared

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01-Jan-24

BOB Economics | Highlights of RBI’s Financial Stability Report

RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report

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29-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates

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28-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts

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27-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin

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26-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week

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22-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool

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21-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions

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20-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24

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19-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy

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18-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks

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15-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year

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14-Dec-23

BOB Economics | WPI out of deflation

WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23

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14-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone

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13-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates

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12-Dec-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Sticky food driving inflation higher

CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%

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12-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies

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11-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth remains resilient

India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | RBI maintains status quo

MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Trends in general government subsidies

In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies

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08-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before

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07-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Rabi Sowing: Update

A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24

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07-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23

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06-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected

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05-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – November 2023

Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3

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05-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook

Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low

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04-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year

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01-Dec-23

BOB Economics | India on track to be the fastest growing economy

India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations

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01-Dec-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Fiscal deficit at 45% of BE

Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Q2 GDP growth in 4th gear

India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24

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30-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)

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29-Nov-23

BOB Economics | IPO boom: An analysis

India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space

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29-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23

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28-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)

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24-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q2FY24

India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent

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24-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone

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23-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Has capacity utilization for India Inc. improved in H1?

Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc

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23-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession

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22-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective

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21-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%

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20-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking

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17-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked

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16-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US economy continued to show some softening

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15-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How FPI flows have moved?

FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing

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15-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets

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13-Nov-23

BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation eased marginally; food remains sticky

CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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13-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market

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10-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth holding ground

On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity

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10-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower

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09-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How has state capex performed in H1FY24?

Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase

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09-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist

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08-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23

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07-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note

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06-Nov-23

BOB Economics | State of States as they go for Elections

India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024

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06-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity

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04-Nov-23

BOB Economics | How prices look in Oct’23

BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Trends in sector-wise credit deployment

Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – October 2023

Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront

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03-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap

US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review

INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady

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02-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates

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01-Nov-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions

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31-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program

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30-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23

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27-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22

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26-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%

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25-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Projection of Kharif output 2023-24

India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA

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25-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23

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23-Oct-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market