Research Reports

24-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes

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23-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Gold Prices: The glitter of gold

The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading

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23-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Fuel Dynamics: Splitting the petrol pie?

Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions

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23-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%

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21-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation

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20-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23

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17-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic

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16-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse

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15-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound

The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes

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15-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23

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14-Mar-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down further

WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23

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14-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank

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13-Mar-23

BOB Economics | CPI: CPI remains above RBI’s upper band

Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort

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13-Mar-23

BOB Economics | South Asia Economics: Is South Asia on the brink of a crisis?

The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year

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13-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures

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10-Mar-23

BOB Economics | IIP: Uptick in IIP growth

IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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10-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023

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09-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Disinvestment: Current target and status

In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also

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09-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out

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08-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Inflation rearing its ugly head again

Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession

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08-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy

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06-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23

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03-Mar-23

BOB Economics | State Borrowing: Taking stock

Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year

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03-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally

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02-Mar-23

BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – February 2023

Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far

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02-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation

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02-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate

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01-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound

Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes

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01-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Policy Rates: What India-US rates tell us?

A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate

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01-Mar-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro indicators remained mixed

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28-Feb-23

BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 4.4% in Q3FY23

Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)

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28-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed

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27-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Is credit growth tapering off?

Credit growth in India has seen a sharp revival in FY23

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27-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term

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24-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening

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23-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it

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23-Feb-23

BOB Economics | GDP Outlook: GDP to grow by 4.6% in Q3FY23

Global economy remains unsettled as it battles the wind of uncertainty posed by geo-political tension and concerns emerging over global growth

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23-Feb-23

BOB Economics | FY24 Currency Outlook: INR to trade in the range of 82-84/$ in FY24

The trajectory of USD/INR in the next year will be determined by both global as well as domestic macro fundamentals

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22-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory

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21-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Can it be a devil in disguise?

Liquidity has been quite a pertinent issue of late when financial conditions remained stringent on account of tightening policy response to higher inflation

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21-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January

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20-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance

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17-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest US data shows that labour market continues to remain tight with initial jobless claims for the week ending 11 Feb 2023, falling by 1k to 194k

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16-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady

Dollar rally resumed once again as bets of more Fed rate hikes reemerged.

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16-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US retail sales increased by 3% in Jan’23 (est. 1.9%) compared with a decline of 1.1% in Dec’22

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15-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data for Jan’23 came in at 6.4% versus est.: 6.2% and 6.5% in Dec’22

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14-Feb-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 2-year low

WPI inflation has slumped to 4.7% in Jan’23 (5% Dec’22), on the back by moderation in fuel and manufactured product inflation

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14-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await US CPI data for Jan’23, which is expected to come in at 6.2% down from 6.5% in Dec’22

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13-Feb-23

BOB Economics | CPI: CPI above RBI’s upper band

Discomfort again appeared from an elevated CPI print in Jan’23

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10-Feb-23

BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth moderates

IIP growth eased to 4.3% in Dec’22 from 7.3% in Nov’22, led by a sharp moderation in manufacturing

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10-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week

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09-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?

The present financial year has been quite unusual in the sense that consumption kept ticking even with inflation being high as the pent up demand phenomenon played out

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09-Feb-23

BOB Economics | FPI Flows: How have FPIs performed this year?

FPI flows into India has largely remained negative this year mirroring a trend seen across EM countries

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09-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates

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08-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Capex to spur growth

The Union Budget for FY24 focussed on fiscal consolidation and supporting growth through increased capex spending

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08-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI to pause most likely in FY24

RBI has increased its policy rate by 25bps to 6.5%, taking the cumulative rate hike to 250bps since May’22

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08-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year

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07-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift

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06-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report

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04-Feb-23

BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2023

At the beginning of 2023, while there is hope that global economy will slow down less than previously anticipated, however uncertainties still remain

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03-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady

A changing Fed narrative as well as a global risk-on sentiment explain the rally in global currencies in 2023

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03-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps

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02-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down

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01-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2023-24

Budget for FY24 balances between fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment through crowding in, and protecting consumer income from inflationary pressures through tax relief

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01-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Budget 2023-24: Quick take – Reinvigorating growth through investment

Union Budget for FY24 is a continuation of the ideology displayed in earlier budgets and has hence tread on similar lines

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01-Feb-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress

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31-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2022-23: Leaving no one behind

This year Economic Survey has presented a holistic picture of the impact of government policies on growth and quality of living and also outlined the path to achieve sustainable 7-8% growth per annum over the medium term

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31-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global bond yields edged down as markets are now expecting that Fed is probably nearing its terminal rate, as it got breather from softening of core PCE data

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31-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier

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30-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week

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27-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets monitored slew of economic data releases

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25-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Capex: Spending by states

With Union budget in focus, and expectations of a higher capital outlay by the central government to boost investment, we here analyse the role of state governments in the overall public sector spending

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25-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMI readings for Jan’23 of major economies remained in contraction territory

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24-Jan-23

BOB Economics | FY24 Budget Preview: Balance between populism and consolidation

Despite this being last full budget before the elections, budget for FY24 is unlikely to be a populist one

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24-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Equity market edged up while there was broad sell off in the bond and currency market

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23-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro indicators again provided discomfort with US existing home sales falling by 1.5% to 4.02mn in Dec’22 against 4.08mn in Nov’22

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20-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Signs of slowdown in US economy became more visible with dip in housing starts (1.38 mn, a 5-month low from 1.4 mn in Nov’22) and permits data, following disappointing retail sales and industrial production

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18-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

BoJ in its widely anticipated meeting unanimously moved against the tide and continued with the ultra-low rates

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17-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global leaders at the ongoing WEF at Davos shared concerns that likelihood of global recession remains imminent in CY23, offsetting optimism of China reopening

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16-Jan-23

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 22-month low

WPI inflation slipped down to 5% in Dec’22 from 5.8% in Nov’22

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16-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed owing to easing of CPI print, prompted dollar to drop to its lowest level since Jun’22

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13-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Disinvestment: More a case of misses

Ahead of the Union Budget there are many conjectures about the disinvestment figure of capital receipts, to get an idea about how the fiscal deficit will be financed

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13-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US inflation declined by 0.1% in Dec’22 (est. 0%) from +0.1% in Nov’22 (MoM)

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12-Jan-23

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves

Comfort came in from both India’s growth and inflation print

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12-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

CPI inflation in China accelerated to 1.8% in Dec’22 (est. 1.8%) from 1.6% in Nov’22, led by higher food prices

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11-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bolstering the case of a global recession, World Bank slashed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 3% earlier

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10-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Increased expectations of a softer stance from the Fed drove global markets

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09-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Financial Stability Report: Key highlights

Despite an uncertain global macros, FSR highlighted that Indian economy has remained fairly resilient

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09-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in Dec’22, slowing from 256,000 additions in Nov’22

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06-Jan-23

BOB Economics | GDP: FY23 growth estimated at 7%

NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7% in FY23 growth from 8.7% in FY22

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06-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on the Union Budget

With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals

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06-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22

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05-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Investment Activity: Is investment set to pick up

The New Year has started with positive news emerging on the investment side

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05-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth

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04-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy

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03-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2022

As 2022 ends economic challenges stand ready for major global economies

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03-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well

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02-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

In Dec’22, bond yields globally changed direction and went for an upswing as Federal Reserve now expects a higher terminal rate at 5.1%

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02-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Where is INR headed in 2023?

In 2022, INR depreciated by 10.1% led by a rally in dollar

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02-Jan-23

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22

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30-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Jobless claims data in the US remained in line with expectation, despite remaining higher than previous week

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29-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In lacklustre trading week, global markets remained cautious over impact of China’s reopening

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28-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to remain cautious over China’s reopening and its spill over impact

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27-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets got breather from China’s removal of Covid-19 restrictions for inbound travellers

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26-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Asian markets were rattled over news reports that majority of China’s cities are predicting a Covid-19 peak in Jan’23

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23-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Robust economic data from the US including revision of US GDP for Q3CY22 upwards, lower jobless claims raised likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed

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22-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market digested mixed news of upbeat US consumer confidence, corporate earnings and subdued home sales data

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21-Dec-22

BOB Economics | IPO Study: Update on performance of IPO market

While the size of the IPO market remains small in CYTD22 so far at ~Rs 55,000 crore versus Rs 1.2 lakh crore

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21-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Inflation Impact: Does inflation have any association with sales?

Global economy has been witnessing upheavals due to uncertainty posed by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict which resulted in supply constraints thus hampering global value chains

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21-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Finally leaving the divergence path, BoJ joined the wagon along with other global central banks after it shocked the global market by widening the long term yield control thereby allowing long term rates to rise more

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20-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Effective Tax Rate: Is there a scope for lowering corporate tax rate further?

In Sep’19, the Union Government in a surprise move slashed corporate tax rate on both existing and new domestic manufacturing units

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20-Dec-22

BOB Economics Research | Return on Investment: ‘T’ has not been the season of much gain

CY22 has been a tumultuous year

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20-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Growing risk of recession continued to weigh in on investors as they began the pre-holiday week with early signs of economic softness adding to the negative sentiments

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19-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of global economic slowdown resurfaced to the shore once again after global Central Banks kept their foot firm on the rate hike pedal

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18-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Interest Rates: What is the real interest rate?

When conjecturing the direction of central bank policy rate, we all know that inflation is important as they have a mandate to target this variable

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16-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Both ECB and BoE hiked policy rates by 50bps, in line with expectations

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15-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s next for INR

Driven by a sharper than expected moderation is US CPI, dollar eased, leading to gains in most major currencies

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15-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed raised rates by an expected 50bps

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14-Dec-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 21-month low

WPI inflation has slumped to 5.8% in Nov’22 (8.4% Oct’22), on the back of broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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14-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets cheered softer than expected inflation print from the US, which suggests that the terminal Fed rate may not be as high as expected earlier

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13-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Expect fiscal deficit of 6.6-6.7% for FY23

Central government has recently presented the first batch of supplementary grants

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13-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained rather subdued awaiting US inflation report and Fed policy outcome

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12-Dec-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth falters

India’s headline inflation cooled off to an 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Oct’22

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12-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Credit Growth: Is credit growth impacted by repo rate changes?

There is often discussion on whether or not monetary transmission percolates to the real sector of the economy through change in the pace of growth in credit

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12-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Data showed that while PPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.3%in Nov’22 (same as Oct’22), it increased more than market estimates of 0.2%, on a MoM basis

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09-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India facing headwinds

Risks of a global recession have increased, as shown by macro data points from both US (housing sector) and China (trade, production, PMIs)

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09-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22

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08-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week

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07-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No surprises – Another 25bps rate hike possibly in Feb and then pause

RBI’s policy remains in line with expectation

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07-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit

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06-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments

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05-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: What to expect in the credit policy

The credit policy to be announced on the 7th of December is important for several reasons

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05-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Impact of monetary policy on rates

A nagging issue when conducting monetary policy is to ascertain whether or not the transmission mechanism is effective

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05-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k

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02-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns

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01-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Where is bank credit growing?

Growth in Bank credit has accelerated during the financial year which is a positive sign of economic activity picking up though banks are challenged by a slower growth in deposits

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01-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR strengthened in Nov’22

Dollar demand waned and other global currencies edged up as Fed Chair hinted at tapering the pace of rate hikes starting from Dec’22

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01-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global bond yields broadly went into a downswing in Nov’22, a situation not seen in the past few months

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01-Dec-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias

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30-Nov-22

BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 6.3% in Q2FY23

On the back of base effect, India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 (13.5% in Q1)

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30-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global macro indicators showed signs of stress

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29-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level

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28-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions

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25-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Dovish signals by Fed pushed global indices higher

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24-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Trends in India’s trade and impact of global economy

India’s trade deficit in FYTD23 has surged to US$ 175bn as of Oct’22 compared with US$ 94bn in FYTD22, driven by faster pace of import growth (due to revival in domestic activity and higher commodity prices)

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24-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Interest Coverage: Falling interest cover more due to declining profits

Interest rate cycle has taken a reversal if we compare H1 of FY23 to H1 of FY22.

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24-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well

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23-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases

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22-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A rebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions

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21-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments

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18-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed’s James Bullard advocated for more rate hikes stating that the rate hikes so far “had only limited effect on observed inflation”

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17-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q2FY23?

Our analysis of the financial performance of an aggregate sample of 1,917 companies shows that net sales continue to increase, despite witnessing slight moderation

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17-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Data from US painted a mixed picture

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16-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In further signs that inflationary pressures in the US may have peaked, US PPI rose less than expected in Oct’22

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15-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR takes a breather

Buoyed by hopes of a likely Fed pivot, global currencies appreciated against the dollar in Nov’22

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15-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to comments from Fed’s Christopher Wallace who cautioned the “endpoint” of rates is still “a ways off”

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14-Nov-22

BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation begins to cool down

Headline CPI moderated to 6.8% in Oct’22 from 7.4% in Sep’22, led by food, fuel and core inflation

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14-Nov-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down to 19-month low

WPI cools off further (5th consecutive month) to 8.4% in Oct’22(10.7% Sep’22), supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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14-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF recently warned of a gloomier outlook for the world economy than was anticipated in the WEO (Oct’22)

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11-Nov-22

BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth scales up

Industrial growth increased by 3.1% in Sep’22 (-0.7% in Aug’22)

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11-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI for Oct’22 fell to a 9-month low of 0.4%, lower than estimated 0.6% and also down from upwardly revised 0.6% in Sep’22

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10-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

With rising Covid-19 cases in China, and PPI falling for the 1st time in 2 years, fears of global growth slowdown have increased

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09-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest global macro prints further indicate that there might be an impending global growth slowdown

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07-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Global growth slowing down; India steady

Stubbornly high inflation print worldwide has nudged global central banks on rate hike spree

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07-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Small savings versus bank deposits

After keeping rates stagnant for almost 2-years, the government recently announced a hike in interest rates for small savings scheme

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07-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equities, currencies, and bond yields ended higher

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04-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Quarterly Results: Update on Q2FY23 performance

Net sales of companies remained robust, despite slight moderation in Q2FY23 compared to the same period of previous year

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04-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Fuel & Freight: What freight data shows

Often when we talk of supply chain bottleneck, an indicator which comes across our mind is freight cost

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04-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated

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03-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08

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02-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision

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01-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Pace of deposit and lending rates in H1FY23

In the given landscape, the Central Bank has been on policy tightening spree with liquidity crunched up

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01-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Sectoral deployment of credit

RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Sep’22

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01-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global bond market was in a trap trying to untangle growth-inflation dynamics

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01-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Focus on Fed

INR depreciated by 0.5% in the last fortnight even as DXY retreated from a 20-year high

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01-Nov-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected

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31-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation in Europe indicates that prices continue to remain elevated in Oct’22 in both Germany (10.4% versus 10%) and France (6.2% versus 5.6%)

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28-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP rose more than expected in Q3CY22 to 2.6% (est. +2.3%), ending two consecutive quarters of negative growth

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27-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?

It has been a matter of debate whether Bank deposits are still the preferred choice of instrument of financial savings

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27-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US housing market showed signs of stress as high interest rates start to bite

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25-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash composite PMIs of UK (21-month low), Eurozone (23-month low) and US (2-month low) signal further moderation in economic activity

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21-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher

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20-Oct-22

BOB Economics | State Finances: Cash imbalances of states

In the current fiscal year, we have noticed that there are a number of states which have been consistently using RBI’s cash flow management facilities in order to meet their fiscal commitments

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20-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts

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19-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22)

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18-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green

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17-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR finds support

Macro data from the US reinstated market expectations of a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next meeting

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17-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet

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14-Oct-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools further

WPI for Sep’22 eased to 18-month low of 10.7% from 12.4% in Aug’22, supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation

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14-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China

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12-Oct-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: A double whammy for the economy

Headline CPI rose to 7.4% in Sep’22 from 7% in Aug’22, led by food and core inflation

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12-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22)

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11-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated

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10-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions

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07-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth holding ground

With major Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) on course to continue hiking rates aggressively, global yields have inched up and fears of global recession have increased

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07-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Will credit growth slow down due to repo rate hikes?

After keeping repo rate unchanged at a record low of 4% for 2 years, RBI announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate in May’22

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07-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Investment Cycle: Investment may start picking up

There could be some good news based on the new investment announcements made by companies in the first half of the year

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07-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 29k to 219k (est.: 205k) for the week ended 1 Oct 2022

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06-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro prints for the US indicate that economy is not slowing as much as feared

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04-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing draw to a close

For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon has been above normal and stands at 6% above LPA at the end of the monsoon period for this year (2022).

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04-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global manufacturing activity weakened further as indicated by muted PMI prints in US, Eurozone, Japan and India

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03-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Household Finances: Are we saving less?

There is considerable euphoria relating to consumption, and the relentlessly high GST collection numbers is a reflection of this phenomenon

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03-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2022

Major global Central Banks have announced steep policy hikes in Sep’22, and have vowed to remain hawkish as long as inflation levels remains elevated

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03-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Bond Market Round-up – September 2022

Financial tightening continued globally which led to sell-off in the bond market

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03-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Is 82 the new 80?

The last fortnight was marked by sharp volatility in the global markets, with the foreign exchange market being particularly badly hit

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03-Oct-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation remains an ongoing concern with US core PCE deflator inching up by 0.6% (est.: 0.5%) in Aug’22 from 0% in Jul’22, and CPI in Eurozone rising to 10% (est.: 9.7%) from 9.1% in Jul’22

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30-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No new surprise – Another 50bps rate hike

RBI’s policy was in line with expectations

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30-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market

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29-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

BoE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks

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28-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%

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27-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to hike again

In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 30 Sep 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 50bps

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27-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes

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26-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Consumption Demand: A silver lining or a dark cloud

Consumption, with a major share in GDP is an important indicator when talking about how growth has fared

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26-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession

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23-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR falls to a record low – From being best to worst performing currency

Global currencies depreciated sharply yesterday amidst a hawkish commentary from Fed

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23-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global Central Banks sprung in action as synchronized monetary tightening was noted across the globe, with other Central Banks catching up to US Fed

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22-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%

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21-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Yields: Short-term yield spikes

TBill yields are witnessing quite a bit of volatility off late

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21-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes

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20-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 7% above LPA as of 19 Sep 2022

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20-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe

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19-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: All eyes on Fed

Dollar continued its upward momentum with the DXY index hovering close to a 20-year high

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19-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation

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16-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Fuel Taxes: Understanding the economics of fuel taxes

Fuel taxes have been a contentious issue in India especially at a time when inflation has been increasing

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16-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy

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15-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained cautious tracking major macro data releases of different economies

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14-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Telecom Study: Telecom sector & 5G Auction

India has the second-largest telecom market in the world with the country registering a strong subscriber base over the last decade

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14-Sep-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI provides relief

WPI for Aug’22 has come in at 12.4%, down from the peak of 13.9% in Jul'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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14-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis

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13-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22)

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12-Sep-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI hardens, IIP growth falters

Headline CPI rose to 7% in Aug’22 from 6.7% in Jul’22. Food inflation rose sharply to 7.6% from 6.7% in Jul’22 led by vegetables, fruit and milk and pulses

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12-Sep-22

BOB Economics | IPO Study: How has the IPO market performed?

2021 was the year for the equity market where we witnessed high IPO issuances as companies accessed this avenue for raising funds

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12-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India)

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09-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 5% above LPA as of 8 Sep 2022

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09-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record

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08-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth

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07-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Bonds: Corporate bonds market in India

With the growing importance of investment for higher GDP growth, there is an urgent need for alternative sources of financing; and corporate bonds market can play an important role here

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07-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic macros appear to be insulated

Last month, major market mover has been the Jackson Hole Symposium

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07-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US’ Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7

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06-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22

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05-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Financial Soundness: Comparative study on global financial soundness indicators

The study is based on IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators database

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05-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est. 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k

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02-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2022

Following the statements by major central bankers at Jackson Hole, it is expected that global monetary conditions will continue to tighten, until inflation is brought down

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02-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 232,000 suggesting continued labour market strength

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01-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown steepest increase, post Jackson Hole conference

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01-Sep-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained volatile amidst increased fears of a global recession

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30-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Market Performance: India versus global equity markets

In CY22 so far, we have observed that Indian equity markets (both Sensex and Nifty) have performed relatively better than other major global equity markets

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30-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s in store for INR

Volatility returned to the global markets this week driven largely by a more hawkish than expected commentary from the Fed Chair

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30-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained volatile following Fed Chair’s speech which was more hawkish than market expectations

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29-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair in a highly anticipated speech hinted at further rate hikes to curb inflation, while acknowledging that this may translate into slower growth and softer labour-market conditions

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26-Aug-22

BOB Economics | State Budgets: State finances in FY22 – A recap

In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY22 and FY23, we selected a sample of 21 major states for which the data was readily available

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26-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors are cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium

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25-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 9% above LPA as of 24 Aug 2022

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25-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Growth and inflationary concerns continued to bother global economy

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24-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Housing loans: Study on housing loan market in India

The real estate sector plays an important role in the economy, especially true for a developing economy like India with a huge population, implying an ever increasing demand for housing

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24-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMI readings reflected muted economic activity in the US (composite reading 27-month low) and Eurozone (18-month low)

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23-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Industry and Capacity Utilization: Turnover to Asset ratio FY22

India’s economy has grown by 8.7% in FY22 after contracting by 6.6% in FY21

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23-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currency indices continued to slide amidst energy woes in Europe

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22-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors are anticipating hawkish comments from Fed Chair at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium

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22-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

IMD had predicted the second half of the South-West monsoon will continue to receive normal rainfall, same as the first half

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19-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Led by uncertainty over the pace of future rate hike by Fed, kept the investors on the edge as they looked for further cues

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18-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Banking Q1FY23 Review: Financial highlights of banks

We have analysed the financial performance of 35 banks of which 12 are Public, 19 Private Sector Banks (PVBs) and remaining 4 are Small Finance Banks

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18-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Have tables turned?

After a rather volatile period of 2 months, the global currency markets attained some semblance of stability in the first fortnight of August

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18-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors monitored US Fed minutes which signalled that Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in order to rein in inflation

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17-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Construction of US housing starts dropped to its lowest level since Feb’21 to 1.44mn units in Jul’22 from 1.55mn units in Jun’22, signalling the impact of the soaring mortgage rates

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12-Aug-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI moderates, IIP growth weakens

Headline CPI cooled off to 6.9% in Jul’22 from 7% in Jun’22

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12-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

As South-West monsoon picked up pace, resulting in cumulative rainfall of 8% above LPA as of 12 Aug 2022

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12-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following the dip in US CPI, recent data shows that US PPI also cooled off in Jul’22

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11-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI rose by 8.5% in Jul’22 versus est.: 8.7% and 9.1% in Jun’22, supported by ~20% decline in gasoline prices

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10-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI frontloads rate hike

In its latest policy, RBI hiked repo rate by 50bps taking the cumulative rate hike in repo rate to 140bps in the current cycle

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10-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of India Inc. indicate?

We have in this study examined financial performance of 3180 companies (excluding financial companies) and noted the trend in interest coverage ratio defined as Operating profit to Interest

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10-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors cautiously await US CPI print due later in the day today, which is expected to have eased to 8.7% in Jul’22 from 9.1% in Jun’22

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08-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Better than expected macro prints in US, Europe and Asia boosted investor sentiments (yields and crude closed higher)

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06-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

Advancement of South-West monsoon has resulted in cumulative rainfall at 6% above LPA as of 5 Aug 2022

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05-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI front-loading rate hikes

RBI continued with hawkish policy as repo rate was hiked (3rd time in a row) by 50bps and is back to the pre-pandemic level

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05-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Bank of England (BoE) raised policy rates by an expected 50bps (biggest rate hike since CY95), as it attempts to tame skyrocketing inflation

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04-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Strong macro data from the US lifted market sentiments globally

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03-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Policy Rates: Is there a link between Indian and US interest rates?

It has been observed that global monetary policy rates tend to move in tandem, with the US Fed generally leading the global rate cycle

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03-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Possibility of an escalation in US-China conflict amidst US House of Representative Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, impacted investor sentiments

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02-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of a global recession surfaced again as PMIs showed moderation in manufacturing activity in Europe, US and China amidst muted demand and high inflation

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01-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

South-West monsoon has registered above normal rainfall at 8% (above LPA) till 31 Jul 2022

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01-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2022

High frequency indicators (PMIs, consumer/business sentiment index) in US, China and Eurozone are pointing towards slowdown in economic activity

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01-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review

Global sovereign 10Y yields have moderated in the current fortnight with Germany and US 10Y yield falling as much as 32 and 27bps respectively

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01-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR stages a comeback

Global currencies edged up against a weaker dollar

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01-Aug-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Euro Area GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2CY22 (QoQ) beating expectations of a 0.2% increase

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29-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

South-West monsoon picked up pace and registered above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 29 Jul 2022

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29-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward

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28-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Employment Study: Job scene in India Inc.

FY22 was a year when the economy got back on its feet

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28-Jul-22

BOB Economics | FOMC: US Fed hikes rate again

In line with market expectations, US Fed hiked policy rate by 75 bps in its latest meeting

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28-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps

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27-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Investment Scenario & Funding: Investment in FY23 started on a weaker note

Investment climate in India in Q1FY23 started on a weaker tone with data pointing towards sharp drop in new project announcements relative to Q4FY22.

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27-Jul-22

BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: Uncertain and Gloomy

After recovering quickly in 2021 from the pandemic induced downturn in CY20, the global economy is on the path of uncertainty and a slowdown in CY22 and CY23

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27-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”

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26-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress

With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 11% above LPA till 25 Jul 2022

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26-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Indian Economy Prognosis: What to expect in FY23

FY23 has begun on a rather sombre note for the Indian economy with mixed signals

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26-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Easing pressure on commodity prices

After sharp increase in global commodity prices, post the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, prices have witnessed a dip in the last month

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26-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50-75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check

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25-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge

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21-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

UK’s CPI print rose to its fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in Jun’22, on YoY basis, against expectation of 9.3% and 9.1% in May’22, led by food and fuel

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20-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Markets remained cautious awaiting ECB’s policy decision where even a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out considering the Jun’22 CPI inflation print is still elevated at 8.6%

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19-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

INR continued to hit fresh record low and just shy of the US$ 80/bbl mark

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18-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Bonds' Wrap: Fortnightly Review

Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown moderation across the board as recession fears outweighed inflationary concerns

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18-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Macro prints in the US remained mixed with retail sales gaining ground and industrial production remaining muted in Jun’22

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15-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing

With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 14% above LPA till 15 Jul 2022

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15-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: More depreciation inevitable

Global currencies depreciated against the dollar as a hotter than expected US inflation report drove the currency higher

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15-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown

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14-Jul-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI begins to cool down

WPI for Jun'22 has come in at 15.2%, down from the peak of 15.9% in May'22, supported by softening global commodity prices

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14-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets

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13-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today

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12-Jul-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI sticky, IIP inched up

Headline CPI remained sticky at 7% in Jun’22 and ending Q1FY23 at 7.3% against RBI’s estimate of 7.3%

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12-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Depreciating INR: a major concern

The most notable fact off late has been depreciating INR which is touching record low every other day

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12-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK

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11-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed

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08-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing

Government of India in Jun’22 had hiked the MSP of Kharif crops with the objective to provide remunerative prices and encourage crop diversification

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08-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment

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07-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth

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06-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession

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05-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation

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04-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2022

Fears of slowdown in global growth have intensified over the past month as multiple high frequency indictors are showing strains of stress (PMIs, commodity prices)

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04-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee to remain under pressure

Increasing risks of global recession drove global currencies lower

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04-Jul-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies

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30-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks

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29-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets

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28-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet

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27-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Global Inflation: Global inflation boiling up

Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | FPI Flows: What is driving FPI flows?

FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times

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24-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown

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23-Jun-22

BOB Economics Research | Forex Cover: Forex risk of India Inc.

The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy

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23-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage

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22-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22

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21-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22

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20-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22

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17-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception

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16-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Fuel Prices: Do states have space to lower VAT on petrol?

With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards

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16-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar

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15-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI remains elevated

Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee slips to a record-low: What to make of it?

Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength

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14-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation

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13-Jun-22

BOB Economics | CPI: Favourable base supported CPI

Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base

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13-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial output climbs to 8-month high

India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Central banks on war footing

With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance

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10-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22

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09-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%

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08-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Tackling inflation a priority

RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns

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08-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier

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07-Jun-22

BOB Economics | FY22 Review: Financial highlights of banks

We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)

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07-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns

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06-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: More rate hikes on the cards

In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps

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06-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction

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03-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike

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02-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2022

With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated

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02-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict

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01-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR

With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated

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01-Jun-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.7% in FY22

Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP Growth: GDP growth stands at 8.7% in FY22

Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21

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31-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia

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30-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting

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27-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia

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26-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings

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25-May-22

BOB Economics | GDP Expectations: Recovery in FY22

Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services

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25-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth

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24-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Government cuts excise etc. What are fiscal implications?

Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | External Borrowings: Taking stock of ECBs

External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs

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23-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis

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20-May-22

BOB Economics | Crop Production: 3rd Advance Estimates – Rabi and Kharif production

According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years

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20-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices

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19-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)

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18-May-22

BOB Economics | Investment Trends: Corporate investment in H1-FY22

Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21

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18-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to macro prints (US retail sales and industrial production) and US Fed Chair Powell’s speech

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17-May-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR

DXY continued to hover around a 20-year high in May’22 amidst safe-haven demand as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by Fed

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17-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors remained concerned about global economic recovery which remains fragile as inflationary pressure continue to build on globally

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 20.1bn in Apr’22 from US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Petrol Prices: How high is the price of petrol in India?

Rising fuel prices in India has led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control

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13-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation spikes, IIP inching up

India’s CPI rose to 7.8% in Apr’22 from 7% in Mar’22, reaching the highest level since May’14

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | Investment Scenario: Have investment intentions turned around?

New project announcements in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly to Rs 6.2 lakh crore in FY22 versus Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY20

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12-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked

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11-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions

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10-May-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: More rate hikes in the offing

Globally central banks are faced with the dilemma of high inflation and low growth

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10-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Concerns over global growth drove global markets

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09-May-22

BOB Economics | FPI Flows: Trends in FPI flows in India

FPIs play an important role in the economy in terms of providing support to the equity and debt market besides adding strength to the foreign capital flows

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09-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth

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06-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Investors continued to monitor central bank decisions globally

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05-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

In line with expectations, Fed hiked the policy rate by 50bps, biggest jump in over 22-years and also announced measures to reduce its US$ 9tn balance sheet starting next month

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04-May-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: RBI’s Surprise move

RBI clearly surprised markets by going for a rather abrupt 40bps hike in policy rate, signalling withdrawal of accommodation and also hiking the CRR rate by 50bps

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04-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global market is eyeing Fed’s policy decision and anticipating a rate hike of 50bps and also balance sheet reduction

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Employment Study: What employment data suggests?

Employment is one of the leading indicators of growth as an increase in the same is a signal that more jobs are being created which will generate income and demand

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2022

War between Russia and Ukraine continues to keep global commodity prices elevated

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain range-bound

Global currencies depreciated against the dollar in the last fortnight

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02-May-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained rattled by the stagflation like situation worldwide

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29-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US GDP contracted unexpectedly by 1.4% in Q1CY22 (est. +1%) on the back of rising Covid-19 cases and waning fiscal support

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28-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Expectations of a 50bps rate hike by the Fed next week, led to a sharp jump in US 10Y yield. DXY too strengthened to a 5-year high

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27-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to track developments surrounding China’s Covid-19 outbreak and Fed policy tightening

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26-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s Covid-19 outbreak worsened as reports indicated possibility of lockdown in Beijing

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25-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Increasing hawkish rhetoric by major Central Banks and spread of Covid-19 in China kept global markets on edge

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22-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Major global yields (US, Germany and UK) rose sharply following hawkish comments from Fed Chair and ECB officials

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21-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield dropped sharply following IMF’s downgrade of global growth projection

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20-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Rising Oil Prices: What does the past tell us?

Evaluating historical data of international crude price and its impact on India’s growth and inflation reveal some interesting results

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20-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global yields rose sharply led by US as Fed officials signalled of a 75bps rate hike amidst aggravating inflationary concerns

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monsoon Impact: Is normal monsoon a good indicator for agriculture?

Every year, before the beginning of the monsoon season, different agencies predict if the rainfall will be normal or not

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Surge in oil prices remains key risk to INR

Global currencies closed lower against the dollar

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19-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currencies broadly closed lower as war tensions escalated

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18-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International oil prices rose by 2.7% on reports of phased sanction by EU on Russian oil

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13-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Record-high exports

India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22 from US$ 20.9bn in Feb’22 as exports rose at a much faster pace than imports on a MoM basis

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13-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Retail inflation in both US (8.5% versus 8.4%) and India (6.95% versus 6.4%) was reported to be higher than expected in Mar’22

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12-Apr-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Industrial output up; inflation firms up

India’s industrial output inched up at a much slower pace to 1.7% in Feb’22 (1.5% in Jan’22) with manufacturing output up by 0.8%

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12-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

International oil prices fell below US$100/bbl-a first since 16 Mar 2022, as investors are concerned about extended lockdown in China to curb Covid-19 cases

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11-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI hints at policy normalisation

Global markets continue to be watchful as concerns over ongoing Russia-Ukraine war eased

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11-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Following new set of sanctions announced by the US on Russia, EU has also announced sanctions on Friday

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Sri Lanka: Financial crisis explained

Sri Lanka has been embroiled in an economic crisis amidst record-high inflation and mounting debt

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: Inflation back in focus

RBI has kept the policy rates unchanged and is tilted towards what may be called a hawkish view as it has rephrased its accommodative stance while keeping it unchanged

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08-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored hawkish Fed commentary

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07-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that Fed officials might raise policy rates by 50bps in the next meeting

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06-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as developments surrounding the possibility of fresh sanctions on Russia by US and European countries

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05-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: Stance to be changed, rates on hold

In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Apr 2022, we expect MPC to change stance from accommodative to neutral

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05-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Reports that Western countries are mulling fresh sanctions on Russia, including possible ban on Russian coal and oil imports once again cast a shadow on global recovery

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04-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Latest data for US unemployment shows that the rate was down to 2-year low of 3.6% Mar’22, indicating that a strong labour market will push US Fed to hiking rates more aggressively

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to stabilise at 75.5-76.5/$

After depreciating to a record-low of 76.97/$, INR has stabilised in the last few days

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Industry Report: Which industries are vulnerable in terms of fuel cost

RBI in a recent report has highlighted three industries-electricity, chemicals and automobiles, as being the most vulnerable sectors in terms of fossil fuel intensity

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2022

With continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices remain elevated

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01-Apr-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Risk of elevated inflation continued to pose concerns for global markets. Germany’s inflation print rose to its 30-year high

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31-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 and 48.4 respectively in Mar’22 led by disruption in economic activities due to covid-19 outbreak

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30-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Led by hopes of possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global equity indices ended higher

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29-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices slumped lower by 6.8% to US$ 113/bbl

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28-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

China’s industrial profits rose by 5% for the Jan-Feb’21 period (4.2% in Dec’21)

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25-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US’ initial jobless claims fell to 187k (est.: 212k) as of week ending 19 Mar 2022, from 216 in the previous week

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24-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US President Joe Biden is meeting European and NATO leaders to announce fresh sanctions on Russia

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17-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US Fed raised policy rate for the first time since CY18 by 25bps

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16-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Forex Update: What the war has meant?

The Ukraine war tended to cast a shadow on the forex market and the tendency was for currencies to depreciate against the dollar

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16-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored progress between Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Sensex and FPI: Does FPI drive the Markets?

Amongst emerging countries, India has remained a bright spot for foreign investors

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports stable; Imports rebound

India’s trade deficit in Feb’22 widened to 3-month high of US$ 20.9bn from US$ 17.4bn in Jan’22

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15-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored geopolitical developments around Russia and Ukraine

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of industries indicate?

A quick indicator of solvency of companies is the interest cover

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation remains a concern

CPI inflation rose to 6.1% against market consensus of 6%

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14-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked the progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth improves

IIP growth rose to 1.3% in Jan’22 from 0.7% in Dec’21 led by manufacturing (1.1% from 0.2% in Dec’21) and mining output (2.8% from 2.6% in Dec’21)

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | State of Discoms: DISCOMs under stress

Against the background of the recently concluded State Elections where free power was an important issue, we analyse the current situation of DISCOMs in states

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11-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets reacted to surging US inflation and ECB comments on winding down its assets purchase programme sooner than expected

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10-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Equity markets in advanced countries took a breather as commodity prices eased from near record-highs

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09-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices surged further (highest since the 2008 Financial crisis), as US announced a ban on oil imports from Russia

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08-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on Russia-Ukraine war

Russia-Ukraine war has grappled markets worldwide

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08-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Oil prices continued to edge upwards amidst reports that US is likely to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector

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07-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global markets and outweighed stronger than expected US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair

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04-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Worsening Russia and Ukraine situation continued to impact global markets

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03-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Where are commodity prices headed?

The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has impacted commodity prices to a considerable extent

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03-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were rattled by escalating geopolitical tensions

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Wrap – February 2022

Last month saw multiple economic and political developments at domestic and global levels

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to trade at ~76/$ in Mar’22

Risks to the INR outlook have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting rise in oil prices

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02-Mar-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remained on edge as hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued

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28-Feb-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: Q3FY22 GDP at 5.4%

India’s GDP growth is estimated at 8.9% in FY22 (-6.6% in FY21)

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28-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and currencies closed higher supported by better macro print in the US (consumer spending, durable goods orders) and Euro Area (economic confidence index)

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25-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Ukraine crisis: Impact of Ukraine crisis on India

Tension between Russia and Ukraine was simmering in the last few months

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25-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets fell as Russia moved troops into Ukrainian borders and launched an attack

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24-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are eyeing deepening tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Ukraine has announced a 30-day state of emergency in the country

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23-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continue to monitor reaction to Russia’s recognition of 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine and moving its troops in those areas

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22-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remain jittery, driven by mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine

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21-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets remain wary of geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine and are closing tracking global efforts to diffuse the tensions

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18-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine

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17-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets tracked developments over the Russia-Ukraine tensions and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

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16-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor positive development surrounding Russia and Ukraine

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Trade - Exports and imports moderate in Jan’22

India’s trade deficit in FYTD22 has surged to US$ 154.8bn from US$ 73.6bn in FYTD21

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | States Update - State elections: Economic status of states

With 5 states (13.2% of India’s GDP) entering their Assembly elections, it is interesting to see how they stack up in relative terms on economic and social indicators

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15-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Globally, markets remain on edge due to heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia

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14-Feb-22

BOB Economics | CPI: CPI touches 6%

CPI inflation rose to 6% in Jan’22 from 5.7% in Dec’21, led by food inflation (5.4% versus 4%)

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14-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Globally central banks are giving different views

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11-Feb-22

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth disappoints

IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Dec’21 from 1.3% in Nov’21 led by mining (2.6% from 4.9% in Nov’21) and manufacturing output (declined by -0.1% from an increase of 0.8%)

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11-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI rose by 7.5% (highest since 1982) in Jan’22 compared with 7% in Dec’21 and estimated 7.3% increase

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10-Feb-22

BOB Economics | RBI policy: Inflation underestimated, growth still a priority

RBI has kept all policy rates unchanged

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10-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US CPI data due later in the week remains a key watchable for the markets

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09-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets await US CPI print, due this Thursday, and are also tracking the progress of US-Iran talking to assess the impact on oil supply and prices

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08-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI to raise reverse repo rate

India’s recovery has gained momentum with a steady moderation in Covid-19 cases recently

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08-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets are closely tracking US-Iran talks and await US CPI print due this week for Fed policy guidance

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05-Feb-22

BOB Economics | RBI: Pre-Policy View - Time to Hike: Reverse Repo

Elevated crude oil and commodity prices continue to add to India’s inflation concerns

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04-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets closely tracked the policy rate decisions by central banks

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03-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Rate: Bond versus Bank finance - An analysis of rates

In the current scenario, where interest rates are rising (20bps increase in 10Y Gsec yield in Feb’22, 15bps increase in AAA rated corporate yield and 18bps increase in AA+ paper of 10Y tenor), the primary challenge is funding

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03-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to rally

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02-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets monitored manufacturing PMI prints and awaited BoE and ECB’s policy meet

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis

Budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with major thrust given to government capex

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Union Budget 2022-23: Investment focused budget

Union budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with focus on boosting government capex and reviving private sector spending

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01-Feb-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets shifted their focus towards Central Bank meetings scheduled later this week

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31-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Economic Survey: Economic Survey advocates “Agile” approach

This year’s Economic Survey has painted a positive picture of growth, supported by central Government’s “Barbell strategy and Agile response”

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31-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets continued to monitor hawkish comments by Fed

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28-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Except Dow (flat) and FTSE (higher), other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hawkish commentary by Fed

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27-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to range between 75-76/$

INR has depreciated sharply today in the aftermath of Fed policy

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27-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

US 10Y yield shot up by 9bps as Fed Chair remarked that “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate” signalling rate hike cycle to begin in Mar’22

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25-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to build

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24-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY23 Budget Preview: What to watch for?

Budget for FY23 will see the government walking the tight rope in terms of boosting growth and achieving fiscal consolidation

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24-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global equity and bond indices ended lower, as investors remained cautious awaiting FOMC comments

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20-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY22 Fiscal Review: Fiscal consolidation to take a hit

Despite a higher than projected nominal GDP growth and pick up in revenues, we except fiscal deficit in FY22 to come at 7%

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20-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Morning Mocha

Global markets were volatile as investors await comments from US Federal Reserve

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19-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, FM is likely to consider a waiver of capital gain tax in the upcoming Union Budget of India

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18-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022

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17-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21

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14-Jan-22

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI eases in Dec’21

WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation

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14-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations

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13-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA

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12-Jan-22

BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation and industrial growth: horns of dilemma?

CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%

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12-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22

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11-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week

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10-Jan-22

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021

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07-Jan-22

BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: FY22 GDP expected at 9.2%

India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%

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17-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets

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16-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn

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15-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports

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14-Sep-21

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation at elevated levels, food inflation dips

WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21

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14-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | CPI: Food inflation drives CPI lower

CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation data to guide markets

Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08

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13-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production

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11-Sep-21

BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial activity continues to recover

Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21

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09-Sep-21

Monthly Chartbook: India’s improving Vaccination rate to boost growth

India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn

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09-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)

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08-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021

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07-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21

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06-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving

With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed

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06-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions

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03-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21

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03-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens led by higher gold imports

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports

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02-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21

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01-Sep-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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31-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Q1FY22 GDP: Growth recovers on a low base

India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year

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31-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22

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30-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving

Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year

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30-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21

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27-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres

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26-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021

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25-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum

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24-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25

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23-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives DXY to 9-month high

Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high

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23-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21

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20-Aug-21

BOB Economics | August MPC minutes: Growth remains a priority

August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway

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20-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.

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18-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21

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17-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: MPC and FOMC minutes hold the key

US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence

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17-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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16-Aug-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Food and Fuel inflation drops, core inches up

WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)

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13-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables

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12-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases

India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect

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12-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)

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11-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis

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10-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Outlook improving, inflation remains a worry

India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability

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10-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown

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09-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation back in focus

US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)

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09-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year

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06-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: Initial signs of normalisation

MPC maintained status quo on rates

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06-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law

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05-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace

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04-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21

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03-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports shine, oil and gold imports accelerate

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports

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03-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21

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02-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI policy to guide markets

Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower

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02-Aug-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21

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30-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)

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29-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill

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28-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier

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27-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%

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26-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields ease with rising Covid-19 cases

Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally

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26-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021

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23-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021

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22-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week

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20-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19

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19-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s economic activity improves further

Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced

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19-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021

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16-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20

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15-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021

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14-Jul-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Peak is behind

WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)

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14-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy

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13-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases

India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Eye on CPI

Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant

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12-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021

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09-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Activity improving, inflation a cause of worry

India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21

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09-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions

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08-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021

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07-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20

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06-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21

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05-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields inch up, global yields fall

Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong

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05-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Exports see a stellar recovery

India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | RBI FSR: Emerging stress in MSMEs and Consumer loans

While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs

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02-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22

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01-Jul-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21

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30-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Rising oil prices=wider current account deficit

India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit

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30-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021

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29-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Stimulus to boost growth

FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global and Indian yields inching up

Global economic activity remained buoyant

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28-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21

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25-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21

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24-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis

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23-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget

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22-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week

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21-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US monetary cycle reversing

US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast

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21-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021

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18-Jun-21

BOB Economics | June MPC Minutes: MPC to emphasise on inflation in next meeting

MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown

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18-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils

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17-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year

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16-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon

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15-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Inflation: CPI springs a negative surprise

CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Rising oil and commodity prices push WPI higher

WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India's economic recovery continues

Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory

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14-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021

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11-Jun-21

Economics Research | IIP: Industrial output steady over a 2-year horizon

Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)

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11-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21

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10-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India on path to recovery

Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21

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10-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.

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09-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).

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08-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.

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07-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Domestic economic activity improving

US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.

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07-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).

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04-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: RBI extends liquidity to support growth

MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.

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04-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.

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03-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.

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02-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil-non-gold imports resilient over 2 years

India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.

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02-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.

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01-Jun-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Q4FY21 GDP: GDP surprises positively

India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian states to begin phased reopening

US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.

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31-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.

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28-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.

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27-May-21

BOB Economics | RBI annual report: Large surplus despite shorter accounting period

RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).

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25-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.

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24-May-21

BOB Economics Research | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave Plateauing

Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.

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24-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

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21-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.

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20-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.

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19-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.

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18-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | GDP Update: Growth to take a further hit

With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | WPI: Base effect, rising commodity prices push WPI higher

WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave flattening

Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.

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17-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.

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14-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.

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12-May-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity rebounds, inflation eases

India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.

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12-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.

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11-May-21

BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery hit by second wave

Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.

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11-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.

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10-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Local restrictions impact economic activity

Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.

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10-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.

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07-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.

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06-May-21

BOB Economics Research | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.

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05-May-21

BOB Economics | RBI Policy Measure: RBI measures for Covid 2.0

RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.

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05-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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04-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Rising Covid-19 cases a risk to recovery

Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.

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03-May-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).

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30-Apr-21

BOB Economics | India Currency Watch: Crystal gazing the USD and INR

A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.

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30-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.

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29-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.

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28-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.

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27-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.

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26-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery holds ground

Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.

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26-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.

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23-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.

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22-Apr-21

BOB Economics | April MPC Minutes: MPC steadfast on growth

MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.

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22-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.

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20-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | GDP Update: Second wave dents India's growth

With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery pushes commodity prices higher

Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.

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19-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.

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16-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.

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15-Apr-21

BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation accelerates, peak in Q1

WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.

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15-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Macro Daily

Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.

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12-Apr-21

BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial output falls, inflation inches up