Research Reports

CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned

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WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation

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US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained

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IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect

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US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%

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Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005

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The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%

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Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”

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Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier

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US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country

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RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran

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US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase

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The global yields largely softened in Sep’24

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet

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As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season

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INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24

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Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate

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Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut

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India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24

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Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%

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US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures

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Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore

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Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy

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OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25

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Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages

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In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%

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Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%

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Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions

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Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance

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Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps

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WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$

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Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed

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Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)

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In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)

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IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector

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CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24

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Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month

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Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today

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South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)

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As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum

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US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month

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Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24

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Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure

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Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24

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Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring

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US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector

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Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024

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Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24

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INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$

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Most of global yields eased in Aug’24

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US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24

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Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24

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India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24

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US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy

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The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision

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Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024

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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24

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In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24

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In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’

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Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024

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Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials

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Global markets had a breather to some extent

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India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced

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Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)

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WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24

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Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024

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In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24

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CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base

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Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting

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Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth

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US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded

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The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy

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Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable

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Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy

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The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession

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Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24

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A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024

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Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark

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INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$

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Global yields softened further in Jul’24

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US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row

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Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24

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Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year

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In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme

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Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024

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In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed

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Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation

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Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases

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Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy

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All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024

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Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened

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In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.

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Global markets still centred around political developments in the US

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Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons

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Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators

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The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047

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A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21

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Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports

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Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024

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The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24

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INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$

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WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation

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China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1

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The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047

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US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24

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India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years

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Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24

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While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts

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Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy

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The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024

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This month remains crucial

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US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24

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Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure

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The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24

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A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut

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Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24

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US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24

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INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month

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Global yields continued their downward trajectory

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As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low

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Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened

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India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well

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Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US

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India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country

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Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases

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Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals

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In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play

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Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high

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In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)

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In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%

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Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)

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Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold

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INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$

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The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits

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WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices

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Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24

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US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis

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CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky

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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation

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World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier

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Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery

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Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut

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US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market

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MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)

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Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year

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Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24

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JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21

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US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production

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In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$

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Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo

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US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24

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Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23

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A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe

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Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period

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Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic

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Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge

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Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24

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Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes

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RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24

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Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates

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When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment

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Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation

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While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts

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INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%

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Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies

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CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)

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US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs

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WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24

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Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data

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CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers

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Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut

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IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024

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Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24

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China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels

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Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24

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Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year

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Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24

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US labour market data showed persistent tightening

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US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations

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Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month

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Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth

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Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23

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In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy

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India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector

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As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning

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Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel

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Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets

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IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies

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Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East

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India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24

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IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal

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In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally

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Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates

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World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha

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ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark

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In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24

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US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24

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In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals

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Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24

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Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture

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Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance

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In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously

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An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly

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US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3

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In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500

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INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months

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The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting

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Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24

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In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25

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In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)

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Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks

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A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe

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In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%

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Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world

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Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts

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Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)

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In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%

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Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24

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INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24

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PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices

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WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24

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In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities

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Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts

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CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%

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Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward

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India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience

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US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis

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Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year

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US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24

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Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024

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Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure

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Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24

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According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24

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Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments

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Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks

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INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%

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Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil

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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23

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Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)

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US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier

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Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23

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New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23

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Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)

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Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions

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Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy

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India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters

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Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked

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Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today

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Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23

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INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year

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In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important

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Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed

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The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24

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An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts

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WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23

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Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23

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A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates

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CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%

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The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends

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Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates

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India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well

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In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k

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MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis

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In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed

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On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23

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IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23

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Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes

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Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)

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INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023

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Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote

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In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions

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In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24

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IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25

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As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold

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A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy

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US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3

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Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity

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With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation

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Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy

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Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations

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Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy

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Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy

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A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)

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In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand

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WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23

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The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)

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CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)

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Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23

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After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023

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Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments

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Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high

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Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate

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India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture

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Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors

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Global markets are again re-thinking their positions

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis

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Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up

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FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment

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Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI

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US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions

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Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23

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The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24

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Deposits held with SCBs

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The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles

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A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared

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RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report

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Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates

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Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts

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With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin

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Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week

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Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool

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Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions

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The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24

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Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy

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Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks

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Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year

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WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23

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US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone

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The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates

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CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%

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Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies

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US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)

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India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong

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MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies

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Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before

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A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24

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Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23

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Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected

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Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3

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US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23

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Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23

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Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low

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Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year

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India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations

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A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts

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Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year

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India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24

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China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)

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India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space

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US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23

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Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)

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India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent

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Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone

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Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc

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A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession

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Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective

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Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%

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Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking

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A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked

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US economy continued to show some softening

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FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing

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Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets

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CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market

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On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity

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Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower

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Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase

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As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist

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As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23

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Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note

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India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024

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Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23

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Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)

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Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront

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Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth

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US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility

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INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady

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Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates

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Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions

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BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program

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US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23

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ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22

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US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%

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India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA

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Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23

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Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market