30-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the coming days, investors will turn their focus towards the US jobs report which might offer some guidance on the strength of the economy
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27-Dec-24
BOB Economics | CAD narrows despite higher trade deficit
India’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q2FY25 from 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY24
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27-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 224,000 in the week ended 14 Dec 2024
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26-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Movement in global markets remained muted due to thin holiday trading
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24-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment plans, rebounded strongly in Nov’24 and increased by 0.7%
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23-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US core PCE index rose at a softer pace of 0.1% in Nov’24 after advancing by 0.3% last month (MoM), providing further cues of moderating price pressures
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20-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data shows that economy continues to remain strong, giving further merit to Fed’s higher for longer rates in CY25
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19-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed reduced policy rates by 25bps to 4.25-4.5%, bringing the cumulative cuts since Sep’24 to 100bps
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18-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US retail sales rose by 0.7% (MoM) in Nov’24, up from 0.5% in Oct’24
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17-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markit flash PMIs show that manufacturing activity remains under stress in Europe and US
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16-Dec-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation cools down
WPI inflation eased to 1.9% in Nov’24 from 2.4% in Oct’24
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16-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in China remains worrisome, as both consumption and investment demand fades
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13-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PPI data showed stickiness on a MoM basis buoyed by food
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12-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data firmed up by 0.3% in Nov’24 against 0.2% in Oct’24, on a sequential basis
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11-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored a slew of political and macro developments
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10-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
CPI inflation in China eased to 0.2% in Nov’24 (est. 0.5%) from 0.3%, signalling continued weakness in domestic demand
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09-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth inflation powerplay continues
India’s GDP growth for Q2FY25 moderated to 5.4% in Q2FY25 much lower than anticpated
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09-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, payroll data showed some aberration as it went up to 227K in Nov’24 from 36K last month
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06-Dec-24
BOB Economics | RBI Monetary Policy Review
The MPC with a 4-2 majority kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
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06-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
OPEC+ in its highly anticipated meeting decided to postpone the output hike by over 3 months on the back of weak demand and rising output levels outside the group
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05-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Inflation risks seen subsiding
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed moderation in Nov’24 both on a sequential and YoY basis
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05-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – November 2024
Following the results of Presidential election in the US, market volatility significantly increased across the globe
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05-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed’s Beige book noted the underlying strength in the economy as economic activity expanded moderately in Nov’24
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04-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A new political upheaval unfolded in South Korea after to and fro on the imposition of martial law
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03-Dec-24
BOB Economics Research | A “concert”-ed push for the economy
India has recently witnessed a lot of buzz surrounding the flocking of international pop, rock, EDM and other popular genre artists to cater to the music enthusiast
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03-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Political turmoil unfolded in France as the current government is on the brink of a potential collapse
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02-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR continues to remain under pressure and traded at record low in Nov’24
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02-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Banking sector update-Oct’24
RBI’s monthly data showed a moderation in credit growth across sectors in Oct’24
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02-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Moderation in US 10Y yield occurred because of risk alignment surrounding political developments in the region which has resulted in higher demand for sovereign debt assets
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02-Dec-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US President-elect Trump recently made comments on the so called ‘BRICS nation’ with a warning of not creating a new currency that could replace dollar or else they will have to face 100% tariffs
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30-Nov-24
BOB Economics | GDP expectations for FY25
According to the recently released estimates, the Q2FY25 GDP growth has been at a 7-quarter low on the back of softness in manufacturing sector
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29-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Q2 GDP growth moderates
India’s GDP growth softened to 5.4% in Q2FY25, following 8.1% growth in Q2FY24
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29-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Trading volumes in global markets were largely muted as US markets remained closed for Thanksgiving holidays
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28-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP growth was left unchanged at 2.8% in Q3CY24 led by buoyant consumer spending (3.5%)
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27-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes indicated the FOMC members broadly agree on going easing on future rate cuts
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26-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors’ focus remained firmly on developments in the US
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25-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs signalled a sharp deterioration in economic activity in both the Eurozone and UK, even as US economy continued to power ahead led by the buoyant services sector
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22-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data shows that continuing claims (4-week moving average), a better indicator for gauging labour market conditions, rose by 5k to 1.88mn to reach its highest level since end-Nov’21
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21-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In view of elevated mortgage rates in the US, single-family housing starts fell by 6.9% in Oct’24 to 970k units
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19-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As economic calendar remains tepid so far, market participants are monitoring statements of central bank officials and appointments made by Trump administration for future guidance
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18-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK’s economy contracted by (-) 0.1% in Sep’24 on a monthly basis after increasing by 0.2% in Aug’24
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17-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR has remained under pressure and traded near a record low for most of the sessions in Nov’24
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14-Nov-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade – FYTD25
India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a 13-month high of US$ 27.1bn in Oct’24, led by a pickup in oil and gold imports
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14-Nov-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation climbs up
WPI inflation rose to 2.4% in Oct’24 compared with 1.8% in Sep’24 led by elevated food inflation
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14-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI remained in line with estimates, albeit pace of disinflation slowed
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13-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A stronger dollar weighed on currency indices
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12-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Food inflation: a continued discomfort
CPI surprised on the upside led by food inflation
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12-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Industrial production rebounds
IIP growth rose by 3.1% in Sep’24, following (-) 0.1% decline in Aug’24
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12-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to weigh in a stronger dollar and protectionist policy, post US Presidential Election results
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11-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Trumponomics
A sweeping victory has brought back Donald Trump to the White House for the second time
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11-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Markets brace for Trump presidency
In the run-up to Presidential elections in the US, market volatility was heightened as it was presumed to be a close race between Trump and Harris
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11-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained watchful ahead of the key data releases in the current week (inflation reading in US and Eurozone, growth print in UK and Japan and retail sales and industrial production in China)
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08-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – October 2024
US Presidential election results gave a clear mandate to Trump
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08-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rates by 25bps to 4.5-4.75%, in view of easing labour market conditions
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07-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Inflation risks linger
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed significant upswing both on a sequential and YoY basis
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07-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a tight race between Trump and Harris, President elect Trump proved to be a clear winner
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06-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Globally, all eyes are set on US Presidential election results as voting ends
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05-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As final voting date for US Presidential election nears, there remains heightened uncertainty regarding the outcome
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04-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.3% in Oct’24 (0.1% appreciation in Sep’24) and even fell to its lifetime low of 84.09/$
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04-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Upward rally in US 10Y steered other global yields
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04-Nov-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data is pointing towards a slowdown, as non-farm payrolls rose by only 12k in Oct’24 versus est.: 113k increase
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31-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on edge monitoring host of macro data releases
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30-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored slew of corporate earnings which remained upbeat
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29-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were largely upbeat as investors monitored corporate earnings
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28-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US economy continued to show signs of resilience
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25-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash US PMI noted the growing strength in the economy (54.3 from 54 in Sep’24) supported by uptick in business activity, with growth driven by services sector
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24-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s Beige book report noted the economic activity across the country has been sluggish with consumers holding off their spending decision until the elections
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23-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook stated the global growth is expected to be stable but ‘underwhelming’ at 3.2% in CY24 and CY25, unchanged from the Apr’24 report
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22-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recent commentary by Fed officials brought focus back on the trajectory of interest rates
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21-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Major data releases form China lifted hopes of a possible rebound in the economy
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18-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored slew of macro releases
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17-Oct-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: H1FY25
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed down in Sep’24 on a sequential basis, led by a downward correction in gold imports
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17-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators showed signs of weakness
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16-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity indices were impacted by a downward rally in tech stocks driven by weakness in semiconductor sector
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15-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.3% in the first fortnight of Oct’24
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15-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global currency market lost its breather amidst a firming dollar as expectations got build up over a cautious neutral stance by Fed
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14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Inflation picks up
CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned
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14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation scales up
WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation
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14-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained
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11-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Industrial production dips
IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect
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11-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%
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10-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005
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09-Oct-24
BOB Economics | RBI MPC: Cautious yet dovish
The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%
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09-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”
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08-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier
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07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country
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07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Sectoral Credit-Aug’24
RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24
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07-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Inflation may surprise on the upside
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24
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04-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran
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03-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The global yields largely softened in Sep’24
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Status quo for now
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon begins to retreat
As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2024
Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate
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01-Oct-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut
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30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | India’s CAD at comfortable level
India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24
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30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Does Fed decision impact those of other central banks?
Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%
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30-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures
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27-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Borrowing Calendar
Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore
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27-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy
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26-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25
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25-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages
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24-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%
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23-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%
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23-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Credit and Economic growth: India story
Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions
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20-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance
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19-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps
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17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases to 4-month low
WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation
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17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$
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17-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed
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16-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)
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16-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)
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12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Industrial production stable
IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector
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12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Inflation inches up marginally
CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24
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12-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month
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11-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today
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10-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)
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10-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum
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09-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month
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06-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24
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06-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market
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05-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Inflation likely to subside
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure
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05-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24
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04-Sep-24
BOB Economics | The consumer goods industry in Q1-FY25
Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring
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04-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector
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03-Sep-24
BOB Economics Research | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024
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03-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24
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02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Currency update
INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$
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02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Bonds wrap
Most of global yields eased in Aug’24
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02-Sep-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24
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30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth
Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24
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30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy
India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24
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30-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy
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29-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision
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28-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024
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28-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24
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27-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24
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26-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’
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23-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech
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22-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data
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21-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024
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21-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech
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20-Aug-24
BOB Economics | MF/BD - The new age shift?
Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention
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20-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials
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19-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets had a breather to some extent
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18-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q1-FY25
India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced
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16-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24
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15-Aug-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: FYTD25
India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)
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14-Aug-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation eases
WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation
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14-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24
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13-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024
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13-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24
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12-Aug-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eases, IIP growth cools
CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base
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12-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting
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09-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Food inflation – breaker for rate cut
Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth
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09-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded
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08-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Status quo with hawkish undertones
The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy
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08-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable
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07-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy
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06-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession
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05-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24
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05-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed
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03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | “Top”pling inflation
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum
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03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | No change in rate or stance
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24
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03-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024
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02-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark
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01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$
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01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields softened further in Jul’24
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01-Aug-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row
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31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Eight core industry growth
Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24
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31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Government finances in Q1 FY25
Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year
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31-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme
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30-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024
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30-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed
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29-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation
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26-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases
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25-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy
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24-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024
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24-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened
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23-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25
In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.
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23-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets still centred around political developments in the US
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22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | The Equity Rush
Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons
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22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Global Fiscal Analysis
Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators
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22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2023-24
The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047
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22-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally
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19-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21
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18-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground
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16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade: Q1-FY25
India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports
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16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024
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16-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24
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15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$
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15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates
WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation
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15-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1
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12-Jul-24
BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation
The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047
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12-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24
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11-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Impact of commodities with high inflationary potential
India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years
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11-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24
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10-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts
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09-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy
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08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024
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08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon and Budget developments to drive markets
This month remains crucial
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08-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24
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05-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Stamp Duty: Do collections reflect health of real estate sector?
Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure
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05-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24
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04-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut
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03-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24
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03-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24
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02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month
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02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields continued their downward trajectory
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02-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low
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01-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened
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01-Jul-24
BOB Economics | Trends in remittances
India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well
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28-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US
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27-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Impact of Heatwave: India’s ongoing heatwave
India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country
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27-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases
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26-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals
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25-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play
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24-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high
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21-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)
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20-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%
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19-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)
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18-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold
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18-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Currency update
INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$
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14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | NRI deposits trend
The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits
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14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation at a 15-month high
WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices
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14-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24
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13-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis
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13-Jun-24
BoB Economics - Food inflation: A key risk
CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky
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12-Jun-24
First Light | Monthly Chartbook
Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation
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12-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier
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11-Jun-24
BoB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation
Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery
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11-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut
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10-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market
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07-Jun-24
BOB Economics | RBI retains rates
MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
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07-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)
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06-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q4FY24
Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year
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06-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24
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05-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24
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05-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21
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04-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production
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03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$
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03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy
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03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | RBI to hold rates
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo
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03-Jun-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24
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31-May-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth soars in FY24
Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23
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31-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe
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30-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period
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29-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic
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28-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge
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27-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24
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24-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes
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22-May-24
BOB Economics | RBI dividend at record high
RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24
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22-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates
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21-May-24
BOB Economics | How different sectors fared in terms of capital formation:
When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment
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21-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation
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17-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts
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16-May-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%
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16-May-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies
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16-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)
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15-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs
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14-May-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation accelerates
WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24
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14-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data
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13-May-24
BOB Economics | Food inflation; still overpowering
CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)
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13-May-24
BOB Economics | A likely surge in FPI Flow (Debt)
The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers
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13-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut
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10-May-24
BOB Economics | IIP growth eases in Mar’24
IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output
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10-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024
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09-May-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Monsoon holds the key
Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24
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09-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels
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08-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24
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07-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year
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06-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24
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03-May-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24
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03-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data showed persistent tightening
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02-May-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations
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30-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month
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29-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth
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26-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23
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25-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy
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24-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector
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23-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning
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22-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel
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19-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets
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18-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies
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16-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | India’s Foreign Trade in FY24
India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | IMD-Forecast for South West Monsoon
IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation picks up pace
Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments
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15-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic resilience continues
Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates
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12-Apr-24
BOB Economics | India’s General Election-2024
World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha
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12-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for
the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark
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10-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24
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08-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24
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05-Apr-24
BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold
In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
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05-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals
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04-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2024
Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24
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04-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture
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03-Apr-24
BOB Economics | RBI to remain static
Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance
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03-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously
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02-Apr-24
BOB Economics | CC Dynamics-Consumption and Credit picture
An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly
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02-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3
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01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Year End - Equity market performance
In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500
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01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months
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01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting
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01-Apr-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24
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28-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25
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27-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)
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26-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks
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22-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe
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21-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%
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20-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Global central banks actions in retrospect
Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world
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20-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts
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19-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How has the equity market performed?
Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)
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19-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%
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18-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24
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17-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Currency Update: Fortnightly forex review
INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24
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15-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices
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14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation at its lowest since Oct’23
WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24
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14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Trends in ownership of government debt
In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities
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14-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts
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12-Mar-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Food inflation a discomfort
CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%
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12-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward
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11-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth continues to impress
India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience
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11-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24
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07-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Feb’24
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis
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07-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year
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06-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24
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05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Analysis of the liquidity deficit
Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024
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05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | How has State capex fared in FYTD24?
Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar of growth this year, with major contribution coming in from government spending on capital expenditure
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05-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are eyeing China’s official economic target for CY24
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04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | GDP expectations for FY25
According to the recently released estimates, the NSO has pegged the economy to clock a growth of 7.6% in FY24
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04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Delayed start to the rate cut cycle by major central banks led to rally in global stocks buoyed by risk on sentiments
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04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Sell off in global bond market persisted in Feb’24 as well since markets have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of major central banks
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04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has remained on a strong footing in Feb’24, appreciating by 0.2%
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04-Mar-24
BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far
Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil
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01-Mar-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE index rose by 0.3% (MoM) in Jan’24 up from 0.2% in Dec’23
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29-Feb-24
BOB Economics | GDP growth to ascend to 7.6% in FY24
Ministry has kept India’s growth projection at 7.6% for FY24 (7% in FY23)
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29-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP growth for Q4CY23 has been revised downward to 3.2% from 3.3% estimated earlier
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28-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Durable goods orders in the US fell by (-) 6.1% in Jan’24 versus est.: (-) 4.5% decline, and down from (-) 0.3% in Dec’23
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27-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
New home sales in the US rose by 1.5% (MoM) in Jan’24, slowing from 7.2% increase in Dec’23
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26-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Germany confirmed that GDP contracted by (-) 0.3% in Q4CY23, following stagnation in Q3 (0% growth versus -0.1% decline estimated earlier)
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23-Feb-24
BOB Economics | GDP to grow by 6.4% in Q3FY24
Global growth continues to witness the risk of slowdown amidst growing challenges such as restrictive financial and tight monetary conditions
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23-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data painted a mixed picture of the US economy
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22-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Corporate Performance: Q3FY24
India Inc.’s financial performance in Q3-FY24 mirrored the trend seen in the last few quarters
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22-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Minutes of the Fed’s Jan’24 meeting revealed that MPC members remained concerned about cutting rates too soon, even though it was acknowledged that policy rate has possibly peaked
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21-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to assess the trajectory of policy rates. Minutes of the Fed policy meeting are due today
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20-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Producer prices in US rose at the fastest pace in 5-months at 0.3% in Jan’24 (est. 0.1%) compared with a decline of 0.1% in Dec’23
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19-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has continued to trade in a thin trading range in the fortnight ending 16 Feb 2024, appreciating marginally by 0.03%
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16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Foreign Trade (April-January)
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 205.5 in FYTD24 (Apr-Jan) from US$ 229.4bn in the same period last year
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16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | How Lifestyle Inflation rate has moved
In the age of growing consumerism, rising aspirations of middle class and higher share of working age group population, lifestyle products (goods and services) have become progressively important
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16-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softer than expected retail sales print in the US has fuelled bets of dovish outlook by Fed
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15-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The recently released macro data has pushed back the rate cut expectations by Fed from as early as Mar’24 to Jun’24
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14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Status of infrastructure projects
An overview of data by Infrastructure and Project Monitoring Division (IPMD) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reveals some interesting facts
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14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation slows down
WPI inflation slowed to 0.3% in Jan’24 from 0.7% in Dec’23
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14-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors monitored the most awaited US CPI print which surprised and came in higher than expected at 0.3% in Jan’24 on MoM basis (estimated: 0.2%) from 0.2% in Dec’23
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13-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of economic data from the US is expected to provide guidance on Fed’s outlook on interest rates
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12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Still some pain points on inflation
CPI print came in at 5.1%, considerably higher than our estimate of 4.7% and market consensus (Bloomberg est.) of 5%
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12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Study on Personal Loans
The study aims at understanding the composition of the subsectors of personal loans and the changing trends
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12-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors attention is likely to be cued on to the US inflation data to offer more guidance on possible path for interest rates
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09-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key
India’s growth resilience continued with high frequency macro indicators such as non-oil-non-gold and electronic imports, power demand, GST collections and credit demand, holding up well
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09-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, jobless claims data was just shy of expectations, falling to 218k for the week ending 3 Feb 2024 and compared to previous week’s level of 227k
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08-Feb-24
BOB Economics | RBI remains on hold
MPC members for the 6th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
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08-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On macro front, China’s inflation data remained worrisome
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07-Feb-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jan’24
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1% in Jan’24, on a sequential basis
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07-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the recent trading session, it is reflected that investors have already priced in a late start to the rate cut cycle of Fed
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06-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On macro front, US ISM services PMI data rose to its 4 month high of 53.4 in Jan’24 from 50.4 in Dec’23
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05-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2024
IMF has raised its global growth forecasts for CY24 to 3.1% from 2.9% predicted in Oct’23
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05-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market indices reacted differently to different outcomes
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03-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Sell off in global bond market was seen in Jan’24 and Feb’24 (till 2nd Feb)
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03-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has strengthened by 0.3% in 2024, consolidating a gain of 0.2% it made in 2023
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02-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of England kept its policy rates on hold, by a split vote
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01-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2024-25
In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions
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01-Feb-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed decided to keep the policy rates unchanged in Jan’24
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31-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has revised its global growth projections upward for CY24 to 3.1% (+0.2% from Oct’23 projection) and expects 3.2% growth in CY25
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30-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As US Fed begins its 2-day meeting today, it is largely expected to keep policy rates on hold
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29-Jan-24
BOB Economics | What production and price data of consumer goods say?
A lot of talks are ongoing about the consumption picture of Indian economy
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29-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP in Q4CY23 expanded by 3.3%, beating expectation of 2% growth, but slowing from 4.9% in Q3
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25-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs of major economies signalled an improvement in economic activity
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24-Jan-24
BOB Economics | FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation
With 2024-25 budget being an interim one, government will focus on maintaining continuity of policies, while committing itself to the path of fiscal consolidation
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24-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were volatile as investors reassessed the future path of global monetary policy
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23-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations
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19-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Expectations of early rate cuts took a back seat as data sets (higher retail sales and sharp drop in Unemployment benefits) continue to signal strength in the US economy
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18-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Withering the dual storm of restrictive monetary policy and inflation, US retail sales data climbed higher than expected and signalled strength in the economy
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17-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data was released in China including the GDP print for Q4CY23 which climbed up by 5.2%, tad lower than the estimate (5.3%)
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16-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectation, Germany’s economy contracted in 2023 to 0.3% on the back of high inflation and weak foreign demand
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15-Jan-24
BOB Economics | WPI inflation creeping up
WPI inflation remains out of deflation as it rose by 0.7% in Dec’23 from 0.3% in Nov’23
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15-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The expectations of rate cut by Fed in Mar’24 has regained prominence (likelihood of rate cut at 79.5% from 73.2% in the previous week) given softer than expected PPI print (-0.1% in Dec’23 against expectation of +0.1%)
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12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Some degree of comfort on inflation
CPI print came in lower than expected at 5.69% (BoB estimate at 5.55%)
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12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Global Commodity price movements in 2023
Global commodity prices have witnessed correction in CY23
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12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Trend in FPI flows
After a dismal start, FPI flow into India picked up pace, cumulatively totaling US$ 28.7bn in 2023
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12-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tracked a host of macro and geopolitical developments
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11-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amongst major equity indices, rally in Nikkei continued and it headed towards a fresh 3 decade high
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10-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Household credit, a stimulus to growth?
Recently, in India’s context, credit to households has been under the radar
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10-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to shed some light on the trajectory of Fed fund rate
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09-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key
India’s high frequency growth indicators painted a mixed picture
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09-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to a multitude of factors
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08-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are again re-thinking their positions
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05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | FY24 growth estimated to surge to 7.3%
NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7.3% in FY24 growth from 7.2% in FY23
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05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | How prices look in Dec’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 0.4% in Dec’23, on a sequential basis
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05-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected labour market data from the US has pushed global yields back up
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04-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
FOMC minutes of the Dec’23 meeting revealed, that while the members have acknowledged fading inflationary risks, they are now also concerned about of the impact of restrictive monetary policy on growth and employment
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03-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global manufacturing activity remains under duress, as contraction was reported in 23 out of 29 surveyed countries by Markit PMI
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02-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2023
US economy continues to show divergent trends in growth, with consumer demand holding ground, labour market cooling and real estate sector signalling marginal improvement in conditions
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02-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained closed on New Year’s day, but Asian markets have seen a mixed opening today as China’s official manufacturing PMI data shows deepening contraction in Dec’23
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01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Fed policy meet in Dec’23 has made a crucial shift with Fed Chair signalling a dovish pivot in CY24
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01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | SCB’s fortnightly performance
Deposits held with SCBs
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01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Sectoral growth in Credit – November 2023
The sectoral growth in credit provides useful insights on which sectors are borrowing funds and hence driving the investment and production cycles
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01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | How transmission has fared?
A closer look at the table reveals how transmission of interest rates across different spectrum have fared
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01-Jan-24
BOB Economics | Highlights of RBI’s Financial Stability Report
RBI has attested to the strength of the Indian economy in its latest half-yearly Financial Stability Report
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29-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from US suggested a further cooldown in economic activity, indicating that the Fed is on track to cut rates
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28-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks continued to rally amidst strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts
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27-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
With many global markets still closed, trading volumes remained thin
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26-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets traded in narrow ranges in the holiday thinned trading week
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22-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic data from the US fuelled expectations of monetary easing by Fed with investors pricing in a 71.3% likelihood of 25bps rate cut as per FEDWATCH tool
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21-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of the release of key US GDP print and PCE report, economic data continued to show resilience with consumer confidence jumping to a 5-month high of 110.7 in Dec’23 driven by optimism of current and future business conditions
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20-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The dovish pivot by Fed raised the expectations (67.5% chance) of a possible rate cut by as early as Mar’24
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19-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the global markets, BoJ continued with the ultra-loose monetary policy as the members unanimously agreed to keep the rates at -0.1% mark and also continued with the yield curve policy
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18-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets closely tracked rate decisions by major central banks
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15-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to get support from Fed’s dovish policy and expectation of a monetary policy normalisation in the coming year
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14-Dec-23
BOB Economics | WPI out of deflation
WPI inflation came out of deflationary zone for the first time in this financial year as it rose by 0.3% in Nov’23, up from (-) 0.5% decline in Oct’23
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14-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed unanimously decided to keep policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, while striking a dovish tone
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13-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The latest inflation print before Fed policy meeting came in higher than street estimates
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12-Dec-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Sticky food driving inflation higher
CPI print came in at 5.55%, slightly lower compared to our estimate of 5.7%
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12-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained broadly cautious refraining from holding any strong positions before a plethora of central bank policy meetings and also awaiting CPI data releases of major economies
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11-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll additions were better than expected with 199k in Nov’23 (est.: 185k)
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08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth remains resilient
India’s growth has remained on firm footing with Q2 GDP holding strong
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08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | RBI maintains status quo
MPC members for the 5th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
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08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Trends in general government subsidies
In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in general government (centre and states) subsidies
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08-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims data in the US is indicating steady slowdown in the labour market, with claims increasing to 220k for the week ending 2 Dec 2023, up by 1k from the week before
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07-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Rabi Sowing: Update
A delayed start to the rabi sowing this year due to erratic rainfall has raised concerns around agriculture growth in H2FY24
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07-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market in the US is continuing to show signs of loosening, as ADP data shows that private payrolls were up by only 103k (est.: 120k) in Nov’23
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06-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Adding to weakening global growth conditions, Australia’s Q3CY23 GDP print shows that growth slowed more than expected
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05-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – November 2023
Global economy is showing signs of soft landing rather than hard landing, with US economic growth proving to be more resilient than expected and UK economy giving slight miss to start of the recession in Q3
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05-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US factory orders in Oct’23 declined (-3.6% MoM) more than expected (-3%), following downwardly revised print of 2.3% growth in Sep’23
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04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing PMIs from across regions indicates that activity continued to remain under pressure in Nov’23
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04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook
Prospects that the Fed may soon start cutting its policy rates next year, have weighed on the dollar which has been trailing at a ~4-month low
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04-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields got comfort from expectation of easing financial conditions in the coming year
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01-Dec-23
BOB Economics | India on track to be the fastest growing economy
India’s GDP expanded at a robust pace of 7.6% in Q2FY24, beating market expectations
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01-Dec-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of data from US and Eurozone reinforced views that global rates have peaked, with bets now being placed on the timing of rate cuts
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30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal deficit at 45% of BE
Centre’s fiscal deficit has reached Rs 8 lakh crore as of Oct’23 (FYTD basis) which is only 45% of the budget estimate, compared with 45.6% of the target achieved last year
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30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Q2 GDP growth in 4th gear
India’s GDP growth surprised positively, rising by 7.6% in Q2FY24, following a 7.8% growth in Q1FY24
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30-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s manufacturing PMI slipped deeper into the contraction zone (49.4 in Nov’23 v. 49.5 in Oct’23)
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29-Nov-23
BOB Economics | IPO boom: An analysis
India’s economy continues to report strong growth with our estimate now being 6.5-6.6% that is much higher than its global counterparts (Global growth: 3%), and making it’s a one of the top contenders in the global IPO market space
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29-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 102 in Nov’23 (est. 101.0) from 99.1 in Oct’23
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28-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Providing fresh signs that the US economy may be slowing down, new home sales declined by 5.6% to 679,000 (est. 723,000)
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24-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Corporate performance: Q2FY24
India Inc.’s performance based on a sample of a 3,265 companies spread out across 35 sectors in Q2-FY24 has been ambivalent
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24-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Eurozone composite PMI inched up to 47.1 in Nov’23 from a near 3-year low of 46.5 in Oct’23, but remained in the contraction zone
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23-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Has capacity utilization for India Inc. improved in H1?
Depressed sales in H1-FY24 has impacted the turnover to fixed asset ratio of India Inc
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23-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A spate of economic data across US suggested that the economy is moderating but it remains strong enough to avoid recession
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22-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes highlighted the need to move ‘carefully’ and the need for policy to remain ‘restrictive’ in order to achieve the committee’s 2% inflation objective
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21-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Moving in line with market expectations, PBoC has kept its benchmark rates unchanged with 1-year LPR pegged at 3.45%
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20-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors across the globe brace for the likelihood of the US interest rates peaking
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17-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of economic data in the US pointed towards the fact that US Fed fund rate has already peaked
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16-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US economy continued to show some softening
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15-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How FPI flows have moved?
FPI flows in the past few months have been disappointing
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15-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Softening CPI print in the US (flat sequential increase against 0.4% increase in Sep’23) provided some degree of comfort to markets
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13-Nov-23
BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation eased marginally; food remains sticky
CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.9% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)
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13-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Hawkish comments from Fed Chair on the trajectory of inflation has again spurred some bit of selling in the bond market
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10-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth holding ground
On the domestic front, growth indicators are showing resilience in activity
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10-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected initial jobless claims data of the US and hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Powell, pushed treasury yields higher and equity markets lower
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09-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How has state capex performed in H1FY24?
Continuing its push on capex spending, Centre’s capital expenditure in H1FY24 has shown a steady increase
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09-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a concern for global economy, deflationary pressures in China continue to persist
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08-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a result of weakening global demand, China’s trade data showed that its exports fell by 6.4% (est.: -2.9%) in Oct’23, following 6.2% decline in Sep’23
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07-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Final estimates for composite (46.5 in Oct’23 versus 47.2 in Sep’23) and services PMI (47.8 versus 48.7) show that Eurozone has started Q4 on an even weaker note
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06-Nov-23
BOB Economics | State of States as they go for Elections
India will witness the State Assembly Elections in this month ahead of Lok Sabha Elections scheduled in the summer of 2024
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06-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from the US showed signs of slowdown with loosening labour market and easing services activity
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04-Nov-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Oct’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has edged down to 2.4% in Oct’23
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03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Trends in sector-wise credit deployment
Our brief analysis of RBI’s sectoral deployment of credit data shows that in YoY terms, credit growth (excluding the impact of HDFC merger) as of Sep’23 has moderated a bit this year (15.3%) compared with last year (16.4%)
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03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – October 2023
Divergent economic trends amongst major economies have come at the forefront
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03-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro data posed concerns of a slower pace of growth
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02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
US 10Y yield exhibited quite a bit of volatility
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02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR slipped to a fresh record-low of 83.29 to the dollar in the last session, after the FOMC kept rates steady
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02-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets cheered US Fed decision on holding rates
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01-Nov-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained cautious monitoring slew of macro releases and ahead of major central banks’ policy decisions
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31-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoJ in its latest policy has made a slight tweak in its YCC program
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30-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US core PCE index, Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, moderated to 3.7% in Sep’23, from 3.8% in Aug’23
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27-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB kept interest rate on hold, breaking the streak of rate hikes that began in Jul’22
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26-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US yield soared sharply inching closer once gain to the 16-year peak of 5%
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25-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Projection of Kharif output 2023-24
India witnessed below normal rainfall in 2023 after a span of over 4-years (of normal and above normal rains) with a deficiency of 6% below LPA
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25-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns around global economic slowdown specially in Europe resurfaced after Eurozone Composite PMI (flash) worsened to 46.5 in Oct’23 (lowest since-Nov’20) from 47.2 in Sep’23
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23-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed survey on financial stability highlighted the following concerns amongst the respondents: likelihood of higher rates for a longer period on account of inflation and probability of losses in commercial real estate market
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21-Oct-23
BOB Economics | How have interest costs responded to repo rate cycles?
When we talk about monetary policy cycles, the first thing which pops up in our mind is how these interest rate decisions will impact borrowing costs
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19-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Conflict in the Middle-East continued to garner investors’ attention, leading to higher demand of safe assets such as dollar and gold
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18-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR has remained under pressure amidst a deterioration in the global economic environment
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18-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors monitored macro data even as tensions in Middle-East continued to simmer
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17-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor the evolving dynamics in the Middle East as the war continued for the 11th day
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16-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US consumer sentiment index as measured by the University of Michigan moderated significantly to 63 in Oct’23 (est. 67.2) versus 68.1 in Sep’23
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13-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI came in higher than expected (0.4%in Sep’23 on MoM basis) led by acceleration in shelter cost (0.6% from 0.3%) and services (0.6% from 0.4%)
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12-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors wagered that US interest rates have peaked, this was supported by recent dovish commentary of Fed officials
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11-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth to get festive boost
India’s growth story is expected to maintain its resilience led by festival demand
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11-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns around Middle East conflict eased marginally as investor continued to monitor the developments
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10-Oct-23
BOB Economics | State Borrowings-An Update
State governments recently concluded their borrowing program for Q2FY24 and announced planned borrowing for Q3FY24
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10-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Widening of the conflict in Middle East weighed in on the investor sentiments as global markets remained attuned to the turmoil
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09-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Asset turnover ratio, a proxy for capacity utilization
Often when we talk about the non-financial sector, an important indicator to look at is the capacity utilization rate
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09-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors assessed the US jobs report for Sep’23 as non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 in the month, much more than was anticipated by the analysts
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09-Oct-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Sep’23 and Oct’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has fallen by 1.8% in Sep’23 compared to 0.7% increase seen in Aug’23, on a sequential basis
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06-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI maintains status quo
RBI’s policy came out on expected lines with both stance and rates being kept on hold
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06-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Correction in global yields continued. In the US, jobless claims data came in less than expected at 207K (est.: 210K)
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05-Oct-23
BOB Economics | What’s the latest on non-government investment?
Investment picture in FYTD24 i.e. H1FYTD24 has remained fuzzy
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05-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2023
Macro data points from the US, China are showing that economy is maintaining momentum /recovering, while in Eurozone and UK weakness in activity persists
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05-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Some correction was visible in global equity and bond markets led by softening macros worldwide
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04-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Hitman and King’s cover drives to boost India’s GDP
India is set to host the ICC-Men’s World Cup, for the first time since 2011
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04-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Global yields witnessed quite a bit off sell off both in Sep’23 and in Oct’23 (till 3 Oct 2023)
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04-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sell off in the bond market continued with US 10Y yield rising by 12bps to its highest level since 2007
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03-Oct-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PCE deflator closely tracked by Fed to gauge underlying price pressure rose at a sharper pace by 0.4% in Aug’23 compared to 0.2% in Jul’23, on MoM basis
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28-Sep-23
BOB Economics | RBI: Hawkish while holding horses
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 6 Oct 2023, we expect MPC to maintain a hawkish pause and keep the rates unchanged
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28-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US durable goods orders bounced back in Aug’23, posting 0.2% increase versus est.: -0.5% decline and reviving from fall of -5.6% in Jul’23
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27-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Impact of India’s inclusion in JP Morgan bond index
After a long wait, India was finally included in JP Morgan’s global bond market index
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27-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Chances of soft landing of the US economy have increased with new home sales and consumer confidence taking a hit
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26-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
The cumulative rainfall activity for the country remains in deficit at 5% below LPA, as of 25 Sep 2023
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26-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Uncertainty around US government shutdown, slated to begin from 1 Oct 2023, is causing new worries
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25-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMIs for major economies show that services activity in the US slowed unexpectedly, while in UK it continues to weaken further in Sep’23
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22-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates
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21-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%
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20-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand
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18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23
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18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated to a fresh record-low of 83.18/$ on 15 Sep 2023 led by a confluence of adverse shocks of rising dollar, higher oil prices and FPI outflows
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18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
For the period till date (upto 15 Sep’23), monsoon activity is in deficit zone at 9% below LPA
View Report
15-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23)
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14-Sep-23
BOB Economics | WPI at highest since Mar’23
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Aug’23, although its pace slowed, as it fell to (-) 0.5% compared with (-) 1.4% in Jul’23
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14-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23)
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13-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates
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12-Sep-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eased – Veggie spike cooled a bit
CPI print remained broadly aligned with our estimate of 6.9% in Aug’23 and came in at 6.8% far lower compared to 7.4% seen in Jul’23
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12-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy
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11-Sep-23
BOB Economics Research | The CD market in FY24
To augment funds, banks have relied on alternative sources, one of which is through issuance of Certificate of Deposits or CDs
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11-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South-West monsoon cumulatively stands at 10% below LPA till 11 Sep 2023.
View Report
11-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In China, as an encouraging sign towards economic recovery, deflationary pressure eased after CPI returned back in to the positive territory (+0.1% vs -0.3% in Jul’23)
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08-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions
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07-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy
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06-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market
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05-Sep-23
BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index, Aug 2023
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has moderated to 0.7% in Aug’23 and further has fallen by 1.7% in Sep’23, on a sequential basis
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05-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1
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04-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below LPA
View Report
04-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market
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01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: August 2023
Macro data points from the US, Europe and China and are showing that weakness in manufacturing and services activity still persists
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01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
US 10Y yield has pared most of its increase in Aug’23 as major growth indicators remained patchy
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01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
After depreciating to a record-low during the month, INR made a smart recovery to end the month only marginally lower
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01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | BoB Forecasts of kharif production
Past data indicates that over 90% of kharif sowing is completed by August end
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01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain
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31-Aug-23
BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy
India’s GDP rose by 7.8% in Q1FY24, following 6.1% growth in Q4FY23
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31-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from major economies once again fuelled fears of a slowdown in growth. In US, private payrolls (177k versus est. 195k) and second revised estimates of Q2CY23 GDP (2.1% versus est. 2.4%) missed market expectations
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30-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Job openings data (JOLTS) for the US showed that openings dropped to 2.5 year low in Jul’23 to 8.83mn (est.: 9.45mn), down from 9.17mn in Jun’23
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29-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India has been witnessing deficient rainfall in the month of August and it stands at 32% below LPA compared with a 13% (above LPA) surplus rainfall received back in July
View Report
29-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions
View Report
28-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23
View Report
25-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole
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24-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector
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23-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown
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22-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds
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21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far
Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil
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21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
For the cumulative period till 18th August, India’s South West Monsoon is down by 6% below LPA (3% below LPA last week) compared with 9% surplus last year for the same period
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21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium
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18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Bond Yields: Why Bond yields are inching up
US 10Y yield has risen considerably post the last Fed policy meeting (26 Jul)
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18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR at record low - What’s next?
INR closed at a record low of 83.15/$ yesterday, just short of an intra-day low of 83.24/$ in Oct’22
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18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy
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17-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge
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14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | CPI and WPI: Sharp pick-up in inflation – a cautionary call
CPI print surprised way above expectation at 7.44%, and was the highest since Apr-22
View Report
14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South West Monsoon slowed down marginally to 3% below LPA (5% surplus last week) compared with 8% surplus last year for the same period
View Report
14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23
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11-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data remained comforting
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10-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI maintains status quo
In a unanimous decision, MPC members have decided to keep the policy rates on hold, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
10-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI data, where a sequential pickup of 0.2% is expected both for headline print and core CPI
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09-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Capex Trends: How has state capex performed in Q1FY24?
Capital expenditure by the government continues to remain the key driver of economic growth in the last few years
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09-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Adding to further woes, China’s inflation data softened considerably in Jul’23
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08-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI likely to stand pat
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in the upcoming policy meet
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08-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators showed some degree of softening
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07-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: July 2023
More macro data now points towards slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jul’23
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07-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs report showed some degree of softening as it rose by 187k (slowest pace since Dec’20) and less than expectation of 200K
View Report
05-Aug-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jul’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has picked up sharply by 4.9% (MoM) and 6.5% (YoY) in Jul’23
View Report
05-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 5% above LPA as of 4 Aug2023
View Report
04-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level
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03-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt
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02-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management
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01-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Growth remained comparatively on better footing for US, Eurozone and India; thus risk on sentiments led firming up of yields of these economies
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01-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates
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31-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
The intensity of rainfall has pushed South-West monsoon higher at 6% (above LPA) till 30 Jul 2023
View Report
31-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years
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28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Trends in state fiscal deficits
In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY23 and FY24, we start by looking at the trends in fiscal balance of states
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28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR likely to remain range-bound
Global growth and inflation continue to show diverging trends
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28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged
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27-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Corporate debt structure in India
During the peak of Covid-19 pandemic, a phenomenon which gained prominence amongst Indian corporates was deleveraging-or a decline in overall debt
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27-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high
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26-Jul-23
BOB Economics | India’s crude imports – Growing phase
India is amongst top 5 importers of crude oil across the globe
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26-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector
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25-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress
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24-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Positive changes seen
India’s South-West monsoon has gathered momentum with higher rainfall at 5% (above LPA) till 23 Jul 2023
View Report
24-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week
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21-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k)
View Report
20-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23
View Report
19-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23
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18-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3
View Report
17-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as hopes of a prolonged pause by Fed have increased, some members still remain hawkish
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17-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South-West monsoon continues to engulf the entire country resulting in higher rainfall at 1% (above LPA) till 14 Jul 2023
View Report
14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Trade: Q1FY24 performance
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 57.6bn in Q1FY24 from US$ 62.6bn in the same period last year
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14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | WPI at lowest since Oct’15
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Jun’23 as it fell to (-) 4.1% from (-) 3.5% in May’23
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14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected
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13-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers
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12-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Red-hot inflation, IIP growth improves
CPI print rose more than expected by 4.8%
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12-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro data remained mixed
View Report
11-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level
View Report
10-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
Advancement of South-West monsoon across the entire country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% (above LPA) till 9 Jul 2023
View Report
10-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23
View Report
07-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawk-eyes on inflation
Inflation concerns in India reignited with some upswing in vegetable prices especially tomato (0.57% wt in CPI) and onion (0.64% wt in CPI)
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07-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes
View Report
06-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent
View Report
05-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike
View Report
04-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: June 2023
Continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jun’23 (at 6-month low of 48.8) and drop business optimism index to 7-month low, has reignited fears of global growth slowdown
View Report
04-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave
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03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | FPI Flow: India visa vis Globe
Indian economy remains a favored place for investment as has been reflected by strong FPI flows in the past few months
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Government Market Borrowing Update
State governments in Q1FY24 borrowed Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the market, lower than the planned amount of Rs 2 lakh crore, but higher than Q1FY23’s Rs 1.1 lakh crore
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR expected to trade with appreciating bias
Buoyant FPI inflows and a weaker dollar pushed INR 0.8% higher in Jun’23
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The reiteration of hawkish tone by central banks in US, Eurozone and UK have led to sell off in the bond market
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | The reason behind spike in tomato prices
Tomato prices are again on a spiral. On sequential basis, the average retail price of tomato went up by 38.5% in Jun’23
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jun’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) showed a slight uptick by 1.2% in Jun’23 on sequential basis, however, much of it is attributed to seasonality
View Report
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation
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30-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central banks are likely to continue raising rates as the fight against inflation seem far from over
View Report
28-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data indicated that the economy remains on strong footing
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27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | How India Inc fared in terms of capital formation?
It is often blurry when we speak of the investment picture of Indian economy
View Report
27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Household savings move towards markets
Household savings are a critical part of the growth process as they provide the funding required for the same
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27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Developments in India’s BoP in FY23
India’s CAD widened to -2% of GDP in FY23 from -1.2% of GDP in FY22
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27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central bank policies continue to remain the underlying theme driving market movements in the last few sessions
View Report
26-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fresh fears of a global economic downturn emerged after flash composite PMIs of Japan (4-month low), US (3-month low), UK (3-month low) and Eurozone (5-month low) showed a slowdown
View Report
23-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale
View Report
22-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations
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21-Jun-23
BOB Economics | How have NBFCs fared vis-à-vis Banks
Using the data largely from RBI’s report on Trend and Progress in Banking 2021-22, this study attempts to look at the performance of Non-Bank Financial Corporations (NBFCs) in the last few years and compares the same with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)
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21-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23
View Report
20-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: How has Monsoon and Kharif fared in the past?
The onset of South West monsoon was delayed this year by more than a week against expectation (1st Jun)
View Report
20-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut)
View Report
19-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy
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16-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation
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15-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle
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14-Jun-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 7.5 year low
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in May’23 as it fell to (-) 3.5% from (-) 0.9% in Apr’23, thus dropping to its 7.5 year low
View Report
14-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23
View Report
13-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%
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12-Jun-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves
CPI print cooled off to its lowest since Apr’21 to 4.3% in May’23
View Report
12-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan
View Report
09-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawkish pause; monsoon to hold key
India’s GDP data confirmed that economic growth remains on firm ground
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09-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle
View Report
08-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI remains on hold
MPC members today again unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report
08-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high
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07-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels
View Report
06-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23
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05-Jun-23
Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to maintain status quo
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2023, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged
View Report
05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23
View Report
05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Bank credit growth in Apr'23
After increasing by 15% in Mar’23, bank credit growth picked up further to 15.9% in Apr’23
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05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q4FY23?
The corporate sector recorded a fairly steady performance in Q4 of FY23 though growth in sales and net profits slowed down relative to last year
View Report
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: How prices look in May’23
CPI print for May’23 is due to be released
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02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Indian Economy FY24: A Prognosis
Global growth expected to slow down in 2023, led by Advanced Economies
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02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | GDP: Looking closer at GDP Estimates
Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22
View Report
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2023
Downward revision to Germany’s Q1CY23 GDP (-0.3% versus -0.5% in Q4CY22) has reignited fears of global growth slowdown on account of elevated prices, and aggressive tightening by central banks
View Report
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off
View Report
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
UK and US 10Y yields’ noticed quite a sharp upturn in May’23
View Report
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR to be short-lived
INR depreciated in May’23 amidst renewed dollar strength
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01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Commercial Paper: How funding through CPs have evolved?
Commercial Paper (CP) issuances have carved an important space historically and remained a preferred choice for better rated corporates for raising capital in a cost effective way from the market
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01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report
View Report
31-May-23
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth in FY23 - Positive surprise
Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22.
View Report
31-May-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.4% in FY23
Centre’s fiscal position in FY23 came in line with government’s revised projections for FY23
View Report
31-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation
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30-May-23
BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: Key macroeconomic highlights
Global economic outlook both for CY23 and CY24 looks benign on account of lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, subdued private investment, and geo economic shifts impacting capital flows and persistent elevated inflation
View Report
30-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline)
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29-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Surrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher
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26-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23
View Report
25-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy
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24-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy
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23-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates
View Report
22-May-23
BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Impact of withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes
RBI in its notification dated 19 May 2023 has announced gradual withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes from the system; albeit stating that it continues to be a legal tender
View Report
22-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis
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19-May-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR under pressure
After remaining stable for most part of the last few months, INR has come under pressure in the last few sessions
View Report
19-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k)
View Report
18-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement
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17-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23
View Report
16-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased
View Report
15-May-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 34-month low
WPI inflation continues went into contraction in Apr’23 as it came in at (-) 0.9%, down from 1.3% in Mar’23
View Report
15-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer
View Report
12-May-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth slips
CPI print cooled off to 18-month low in Apr’23 to 4.7% against 5.7% in Mar’23
View Report
12-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data points to a slowdown
View Report
11-May-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Is less than 7% the next stop for 10Y yield...?
Fed’s latest decision signalling a prolonged pause has helped ease pressure on both domestic yields and currency
View Report
11-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data on a sequential basis remained sticky rising by 0.4%, in Apr’23 from 0.1% in Mar’23 (est.: 0.4%)
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10-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials reflected divergent tone about course of Fed rate
View Report
09-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amongst major developments has been better than expected exports growth in China by 8.5% in Apr’23 (est.: 8%), albeit slower compared to 14.8% growth in Mar’23, on YoY basis
View Report
08-May-23
BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index
Inflation indices in India are presented on a monthly basis at both the wholesale and retail levels
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08-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored US payroll data, which remained buoyant with non- farm payroll rising by 253K in Apr’23 from 165K in Mar’23 and against est.: level of 185K
View Report
04-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation
View Report
03-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks
View Report
03-May-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2023
GDP data for Q1CY23 shows that while major economies have avoided a recession (most feared in case of Europe), slowdown in activity still continues
View Report
02-May-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields traded mixed in Apr’23 influenced by varied macros
View Report
02-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A string of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes
View Report
29-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
Global economy was once again beginning to stare at the possibility of economic slowdown as fears re-emerged over the possibility of economic recession in US owing to another banking crisis
View Report
28-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22
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27-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US data showed a mixed picture of the economy
View Report
26-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits
View Report
25-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy
View Report
24-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Stock Indices: Are Macroeconomic variables and Stock Indices related?
The performance of Indian stock market (Nifty) in FY23 when compared with last year has not been up to mark
View Report
24-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector
View Report
21-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Rate Differential: Update on India and US
India and US 10Y yield differential is seen inching up since March’23
View Report
21-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest US data shows that existing home sales have again begun to decline in Mar’23 (4.4mn units versus est.: 4.5mn and 4.6mn in Feb’23)
View Report
20-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s beige book indicates that economic activity remains broadly unchanged
View Report
19-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Capex climate: Update on investment scenario and its funding
Investment picture in FY23 was fuzzy
View Report
19-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts are seen stabilising on the hopes of Fed pausing its rate hike cycle this year (expected from Jun’23)
View Report
18-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to strengthen
DXY fell by 0.9% in Apr’23 so far as expectations that the Fed is nearing an end to its rate hike cycle gained momentum
View Report
18-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data from China points that reopening of the economy has helped GDP growth as it rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Q1CY23 (est.: 4%) from 2.9% in Q4
View Report
17-Apr-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI continues to decelerate
WPI inflation continues to decelerate at a faster pace than CPI and was down to 1.3% in Mar’23 compared with 3.9% in Feb’23
View Report
17-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data in the US is giving mixed signals, pointing out that the economy may not be slowing as much as anticipated
View Report
13-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices
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12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth stable
CPI print in Mar’23 got comfort from a favourable statistical base
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12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: IMF flags risks to recovery
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent report has flagged risks to the global growth recovery
View Report
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Rate hike off the table; Inflation holds the key
All eyes were around the surprise pause delivered by RBI
View Report
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy
View Report
11-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23
View Report
10-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23
View Report
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI surprises with a pause
MPC members today unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, after hiking continuously since May’22
View Report
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2023
Global growth is showing signs of slowdown as mixed economic data is being reported from the US and China
View Report
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Disappointing data reading from US (ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment) continues to signal slowdown in US economy
View Report
05-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sluggish US data (shrinking manufacturing activity and lower jobs opening) pulled down the dollar index and raised hope of Fed nearing the end of rate tightening cycle
View Report
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s gauge of inflation data (PCE: down to 5% in Feb’23 against 5.3% in Jan’23) surprised positively
View Report
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Cost of Borrowing: Small Savings
In the wake of rising interest rates scenario, Government has followed suit by jacking up the rates on small savings schemes for Q11FY24
View Report
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields fell sharply in Mar’23 following the banking crisis
View Report
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Further downside for INR likely
Driven by a weakness in DXY, global currencies appreciated
View Report
31-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Borrowing Calendar: Centre has finely managed its H1FY24 calendar
Centre has come up with its H1FY24 borrowing calendar
View Report
31-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored key macro data releases and comments from major Fed officials
View Report
29-Mar-23
BOB Economics | External Sector Review: Trade, CAD and capital flows
India’s external sector is ending FY23 on a much more strong footing than what was expected at the start of the year
View Report
29-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global currency and bond markets got breather from the recent comments of officials
View Report
28-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets gained comfort from announcement of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company will purchase all loans and deposits of Silicon Valley Bank
View Report
27-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Timely actions by global Central Banks has kept the lid over the ongoing challenges in the financial system
View Report
24-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes
View Report
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Gold Prices: The glitter of gold
The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading
View Report
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Fuel Dynamics: Splitting the petrol pie?
Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions
View Report
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%
View Report
21-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation
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20-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23
View Report
17-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic
View Report
16-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse
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15-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes
View Report
15-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23
View Report
14-Mar-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down further
WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23
View Report
14-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank
View Report
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | CPI: CPI remains above RBI’s upper band
Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort
View Report
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | South Asia Economics: Is South Asia on the brink of a crisis?
The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year
View Report
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures
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10-Mar-23
BOB Economics | IIP: Uptick in IIP growth
IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output
View Report
10-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023
View Report
09-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Disinvestment: Current target and status
In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also
View Report
09-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out
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08-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Inflation rearing its ugly head again
Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession
View Report
08-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy
View Report
06-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23
View Report
03-Mar-23
BOB Economics | State Borrowing: Taking stock
Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year
View Report
03-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally
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02-Mar-23
BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – February 2023
Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far
View Report
02-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation
View Report
02-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate
View Report
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes
View Report
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Policy Rates: What India-US rates tell us?
A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate
View Report
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators remained mixed
View Report
28-Feb-23
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 4.4% in Q3FY23
Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)
View Report
28-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed
View Report
27-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Is credit growth tapering off?
Credit growth in India has seen a sharp revival in FY23
View Report
27-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term
View Report
24-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening
View Report
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it
View Report
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | GDP Outlook: GDP to grow by 4.6% in Q3FY23
Global economy remains unsettled as it battles the wind of uncertainty posed by geo-political tension and concerns emerging over global growth
View Report
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | FY24 Currency Outlook: INR to trade in the range of 82-84/$ in FY24
The trajectory of USD/INR in the next year will be determined by both global as well as domestic macro fundamentals
View Report
22-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory
View Report
21-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Can it be a devil in disguise?
Liquidity has been quite a pertinent issue of late when financial conditions remained stringent on account of tightening policy response to higher inflation
View Report
21-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January
View Report
20-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance
View Report
17-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest US data shows that labour market continues to remain tight with initial jobless claims for the week ending 11 Feb 2023, falling by 1k to 194k
View Report
16-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady
Dollar rally resumed once again as bets of more Fed rate hikes reemerged.
View Report
16-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US retail sales increased by 3% in Jan’23 (est. 1.9%) compared with a decline of 1.1% in Dec’22
View Report
15-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data for Jan’23 came in at 6.4% versus est.: 6.2% and 6.5% in Dec’22
View Report
14-Feb-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 2-year low
WPI inflation has slumped to 4.7% in Jan’23 (5% Dec’22), on the back by moderation in fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report
14-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await US CPI data for Jan’23, which is expected to come in at 6.2% down from 6.5% in Dec’22
View Report
13-Feb-23
BOB Economics | CPI: CPI above RBI’s upper band
Discomfort again appeared from an elevated CPI print in Jan’23
View Report
10-Feb-23
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth moderates
IIP growth eased to 4.3% in Dec’22 from 7.3% in Nov’22, led by a sharp moderation in manufacturing
View Report
10-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week
View Report
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?
The present financial year has been quite unusual in the sense that consumption kept ticking even with inflation being high as the pent up demand phenomenon played out
View Report
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | FPI Flows: How have FPIs performed this year?
FPI flows into India has largely remained negative this year mirroring a trend seen across EM countries
View Report
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates
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08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Capex to spur growth
The Union Budget for FY24 focussed on fiscal consolidation and supporting growth through increased capex spending
View Report
08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI to pause most likely in FY24
RBI has increased its policy rate by 25bps to 6.5%, taking the cumulative rate hike to 250bps since May’22
View Report
08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year
View Report
07-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift
View Report
06-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report
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04-Feb-23
BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2023
At the beginning of 2023, while there is hope that global economy will slow down less than previously anticipated, however uncertainties still remain
View Report
03-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady
A changing Fed narrative as well as a global risk-on sentiment explain the rally in global currencies in 2023
View Report
03-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps
View Report
02-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down
View Report
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2023-24
Budget for FY24 balances between fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment through crowding in, and protecting consumer income from inflationary pressures through tax relief
View Report
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Budget 2023-24: Quick take – Reinvigorating growth through investment
Union Budget for FY24 is a continuation of the ideology displayed in earlier budgets and has hence tread on similar lines
View Report
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress
View Report
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2022-23: Leaving no one behind
This year Economic Survey has presented a holistic picture of the impact of government policies on growth and quality of living and also outlined the path to achieve sustainable 7-8% growth per annum over the medium term
View Report
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields edged down as markets are now expecting that Fed is probably nearing its terminal rate, as it got breather from softening of core PCE data
View Report
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier
View Report
30-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week
View Report
27-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets monitored slew of economic data releases
View Report
25-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Capex: Spending by states
With Union budget in focus, and expectations of a higher capital outlay by the central government to boost investment, we here analyse the role of state governments in the overall public sector spending
View Report
25-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings for Jan’23 of major economies remained in contraction territory
View Report
24-Jan-23
BOB Economics | FY24 Budget Preview: Balance between populism and consolidation
Despite this being last full budget before the elections, budget for FY24 is unlikely to be a populist one
View Report
24-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Equity market edged up while there was broad sell off in the bond and currency market
View Report
23-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators again provided discomfort with US existing home sales falling by 1.5% to 4.02mn in Dec’22 against 4.08mn in Nov’22
View Report
20-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Signs of slowdown in US economy became more visible with dip in housing starts (1.38 mn, a 5-month low from 1.4 mn in Nov’22) and permits data, following disappointing retail sales and industrial production
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18-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoJ in its widely anticipated meeting unanimously moved against the tide and continued with the ultra-low rates
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17-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global leaders at the ongoing WEF at Davos shared concerns that likelihood of global recession remains imminent in CY23, offsetting optimism of China reopening
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16-Jan-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 22-month low
WPI inflation slipped down to 5% in Dec’22 from 5.8% in Nov’22
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16-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed owing to easing of CPI print, prompted dollar to drop to its lowest level since Jun’22
View Report
13-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Disinvestment: More a case of misses
Ahead of the Union Budget there are many conjectures about the disinvestment figure of capital receipts, to get an idea about how the fiscal deficit will be financed
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13-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US inflation declined by 0.1% in Dec’22 (est. 0%) from +0.1% in Nov’22 (MoM)
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12-Jan-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves
Comfort came in from both India’s growth and inflation print
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12-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
CPI inflation in China accelerated to 1.8% in Dec’22 (est. 1.8%) from 1.6% in Nov’22, led by higher food prices
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11-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bolstering the case of a global recession, World Bank slashed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 3% earlier
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10-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Increased expectations of a softer stance from the Fed drove global markets
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09-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Financial Stability Report: Key highlights
Despite an uncertain global macros, FSR highlighted that Indian economy has remained fairly resilient
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09-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in Dec’22, slowing from 256,000 additions in Nov’22
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06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | GDP: FY23 growth estimated at 7%
NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7% in FY23 growth from 8.7% in FY22
View Report
06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on the Union Budget
With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals
View Report
06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22
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05-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Investment Activity: Is investment set to pick up
The New Year has started with positive news emerging on the investment side
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05-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth
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04-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy
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03-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2022
As 2022 ends economic challenges stand ready for major global economies
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03-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well
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02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
In Dec’22, bond yields globally changed direction and went for an upswing as Federal Reserve now expects a higher terminal rate at 5.1%
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02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Where is INR headed in 2023?
In 2022, INR depreciated by 10.1% led by a rally in dollar
View Report
02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22
View Report
30-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Jobless claims data in the US remained in line with expectation, despite remaining higher than previous week
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29-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In lacklustre trading week, global markets remained cautious over impact of China’s reopening
View Report
28-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to remain cautious over China’s reopening and its spill over impact
View Report
27-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets got breather from China’s removal of Covid-19 restrictions for inbound travellers
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26-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Asian markets were rattled over news reports that majority of China’s cities are predicting a Covid-19 peak in Jan’23
View Report
23-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Robust economic data from the US including revision of US GDP for Q3CY22 upwards, lower jobless claims raised likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed
View Report
22-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market digested mixed news of upbeat US consumer confidence, corporate earnings and subdued home sales data
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21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | IPO Study: Update on performance of IPO market
While the size of the IPO market remains small in CYTD22 so far at ~Rs 55,000 crore versus Rs 1.2 lakh crore
View Report
21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Inflation Impact: Does inflation have any association with sales?
Global economy has been witnessing upheavals due to uncertainty posed by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict which resulted in supply constraints thus hampering global value chains
View Report
21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Finally leaving the divergence path, BoJ joined the wagon along with other global central banks after it shocked the global market by widening the long term yield control thereby allowing long term rates to rise more
View Report
20-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Effective Tax Rate: Is there a scope for lowering corporate tax rate further?
In Sep’19, the Union Government in a surprise move slashed corporate tax rate on both existing and new domestic manufacturing units
View Report
20-Dec-22
BOB Economics Research | Return on Investment: ‘T’ has not been the season of much gain
CY22 has been a tumultuous year
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20-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growing risk of recession continued to weigh in on investors as they began the pre-holiday week with early signs of economic softness adding to the negative sentiments
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19-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of global economic slowdown resurfaced to the shore once again after global Central Banks kept their foot firm on the rate hike pedal
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18-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: What is the real interest rate?
When conjecturing the direction of central bank policy rate, we all know that inflation is important as they have a mandate to target this variable
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16-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Both ECB and BoE hiked policy rates by 50bps, in line with expectations
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15-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s next for INR
Driven by a sharper than expected moderation is US CPI, dollar eased, leading to gains in most major currencies
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15-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed raised rates by an expected 50bps
View Report
14-Dec-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 21-month low
WPI inflation has slumped to 5.8% in Nov’22 (8.4% Oct’22), on the back of broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
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14-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets cheered softer than expected inflation print from the US, which suggests that the terminal Fed rate may not be as high as expected earlier
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13-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Expect fiscal deficit of 6.6-6.7% for FY23
Central government has recently presented the first batch of supplementary grants
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13-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained rather subdued awaiting US inflation report and Fed policy outcome
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12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth falters
India’s headline inflation cooled off to an 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Oct’22
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12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Credit Growth: Is credit growth impacted by repo rate changes?
There is often discussion on whether or not monetary transmission percolates to the real sector of the economy through change in the pace of growth in credit
View Report
12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data showed that while PPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.3%in Nov’22 (same as Oct’22), it increased more than market estimates of 0.2%, on a MoM basis
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09-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India facing headwinds
Risks of a global recession have increased, as shown by macro data points from both US (housing sector) and China (trade, production, PMIs)
View Report
09-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22
View Report
08-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week
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07-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No surprises – Another 25bps rate hike possibly in Feb and then pause
RBI’s policy remains in line with expectation
View Report
07-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit
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06-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments
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05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: What to expect in the credit policy
The credit policy to be announced on the 7th of December is important for several reasons
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05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Impact of monetary policy on rates
A nagging issue when conducting monetary policy is to ascertain whether or not the transmission mechanism is effective
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05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k
View Report
02-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns
View Report
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Where is bank credit growing?
Growth in Bank credit has accelerated during the financial year which is a positive sign of economic activity picking up though banks are challenged by a slower growth in deposits
View Report
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR strengthened in Nov’22
Dollar demand waned and other global currencies edged up as Fed Chair hinted at tapering the pace of rate hikes starting from Dec’22
View Report
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields broadly went into a downswing in Nov’22, a situation not seen in the past few months
View Report
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias
View Report
30-Nov-22
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 6.3% in Q2FY23
On the back of base effect, India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 (13.5% in Q1)
View Report
30-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators showed signs of stress
View Report
29-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level
View Report
28-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions
View Report
25-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Dovish signals by Fed pushed global indices higher
View Report
24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Trade: Trends in India’s trade and impact of global economy
India’s trade deficit in FYTD23 has surged to US$ 175bn as of Oct’22 compared with US$ 94bn in FYTD22, driven by faster pace of import growth (due to revival in domestic activity and higher commodity prices)
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24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Coverage: Falling interest cover more due to declining profits
Interest rate cycle has taken a reversal if we compare H1 of FY23 to H1 of FY22.
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24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well
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23-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases
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22-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A rebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions
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21-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments
View Report
18-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s James Bullard advocated for more rate hikes stating that the rate hikes so far “had only limited effect on observed inflation”
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17-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q2FY23?
Our analysis of the financial performance of an aggregate sample of 1,917 companies shows that net sales continue to increase, despite witnessing slight moderation
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17-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data from US painted a mixed picture
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16-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In further signs that inflationary pressures in the US may have peaked, US PPI rose less than expected in Oct’22
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15-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR takes a breather
Buoyed by hopes of a likely Fed pivot, global currencies appreciated against the dollar in Nov’22
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15-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to comments from Fed’s Christopher Wallace who cautioned the “endpoint” of rates is still “a ways off”
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14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation begins to cool down
Headline CPI moderated to 6.8% in Oct’22 from 7.4% in Sep’22, led by food, fuel and core inflation
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14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down to 19-month low
WPI cools off further (5th consecutive month) to 8.4% in Oct’22(10.7% Sep’22), supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
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14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF recently warned of a gloomier outlook for the world economy than was anticipated in the WEO (Oct’22)
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11-Nov-22
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth scales up
Industrial growth increased by 3.1% in Sep’22 (-0.7% in Aug’22)
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11-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI for Oct’22 fell to a 9-month low of 0.4%, lower than estimated 0.6% and also down from upwardly revised 0.6% in Sep’22
View Report
10-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
With rising Covid-19 cases in China, and PPI falling for the 1st time in 2 years, fears of global growth slowdown have increased
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09-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest global macro prints further indicate that there might be an impending global growth slowdown
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07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Global growth slowing down; India steady
Stubbornly high inflation print worldwide has nudged global central banks on rate hike spree
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07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Small savings versus bank deposits
After keeping rates stagnant for almost 2-years, the government recently announced a hike in interest rates for small savings scheme
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07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equities, currencies, and bond yields ended higher
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04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Quarterly Results: Update on Q2FY23 performance
Net sales of companies remained robust, despite slight moderation in Q2FY23 compared to the same period of previous year
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04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Fuel & Freight: What freight data shows
Often when we talk of supply chain bottleneck, an indicator which comes across our mind is freight cost
View Report
04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated
View Report
03-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08
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02-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision
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01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Pace of deposit and lending rates in H1FY23
In the given landscape, the Central Bank has been on policy tightening spree with liquidity crunched up
View Report
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Sectoral deployment of credit
RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Sep’22
View Report
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond market was in a trap trying to untangle growth-inflation dynamics
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01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Focus on Fed
INR depreciated by 0.5% in the last fortnight even as DXY retreated from a 20-year high
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01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected
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31-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in Europe indicates that prices continue to remain elevated in Oct’22 in both Germany (10.4% versus 10%) and France (6.2% versus 5.6%)
View Report
28-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP rose more than expected in Q3CY22 to 2.6% (est. +2.3%), ending two consecutive quarters of negative growth
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27-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?
It has been a matter of debate whether Bank deposits are still the preferred choice of instrument of financial savings
View Report
27-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing market showed signs of stress as high interest rates start to bite
View Report
25-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash composite PMIs of UK (21-month low), Eurozone (23-month low) and US (2-month low) signal further moderation in economic activity
View Report
21-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher
View Report
20-Oct-22
BOB Economics | State Finances: Cash imbalances of states
In the current fiscal year, we have noticed that there are a number of states which have been consistently using RBI’s cash flow management facilities in order to meet their fiscal commitments
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20-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts
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19-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22)
View Report
18-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green
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17-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR finds support
Macro data from the US reinstated market expectations of a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next meeting
View Report
17-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market
analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet
View Report
14-Oct-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools further
WPI for Sep’22 eased to 18-month low of 10.7% from 12.4% in Aug’22, supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report
14-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China
View Report
12-Oct-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: A double whammy for the economy
Headline CPI rose to 7.4% in Sep’22 from 7% in Aug’22, led by food and core inflation
View Report
12-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22)
View Report
11-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated
View Report
10-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions
View Report
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth holding ground
With major Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) on course to continue hiking rates aggressively, global yields have inched up and fears of global recession have increased
View Report
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Will credit growth slow down due to repo rate hikes?
After keeping repo rate unchanged at a record low of 4% for 2 years, RBI announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate in May’22
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07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Investment Cycle: Investment may start picking up
There could be some good news based on the new investment announcements made by companies in the first half of the year
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07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 29k to 219k (est.: 205k) for the week ended 1 Oct 2022
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06-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro prints for the US indicate that economy is not slowing as much as feared
View Report
04-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing draw to a close
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon has been above normal and stands at 6% above LPA at the end of the monsoon period for this year (2022).
View Report
04-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global manufacturing activity weakened further as indicated by muted PMI prints in US, Eurozone, Japan and India
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03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Household Finances: Are we saving less?
There is considerable euphoria relating to consumption, and the relentlessly high GST collection numbers is a reflection of this phenomenon
View Report
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2022
Major global Central Banks have announced steep policy hikes in Sep’22, and have vowed to remain hawkish as long as inflation levels remains elevated
View Report
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Bond Market Round-up – September 2022
Financial tightening continued globally which led to sell-off in the bond market
View Report
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Is 82 the new 80?
The last fortnight was marked by sharp volatility in the global markets, with the foreign exchange market being particularly badly hit
View Report
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation remains an ongoing concern with US core PCE deflator inching up by 0.6% (est.: 0.5%) in Aug’22 from 0% in Jul’22, and CPI in Eurozone rising to 10% (est.: 9.7%) from 9.1% in Jul’22
View Report
30-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No new surprise – Another 50bps rate hike
RBI’s policy was in line with expectations
View Report
30-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market
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29-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks
View Report
28-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%
View Report
27-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to hike again
In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 30 Sep 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 50bps
View Report
27-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes
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26-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Consumption Demand: A silver lining or a dark cloud
Consumption, with a major share in GDP is an important indicator when talking about how growth has fared
View Report
26-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession
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23-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR falls to a record low – From being best to worst performing currency
Global currencies depreciated sharply yesterday amidst a hawkish commentary from Fed
View Report
23-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Banks sprung in action as synchronized monetary tightening was noted across the globe, with other Central Banks catching up to US Fed
View Report
22-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%
View Report
21-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Yields: Short-term yield spikes
TBill yields are witnessing quite a bit of volatility off late
View Report
21-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes
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20-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 7% above LPA as of 19 Sep 2022
View Report
20-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe
View Report
19-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: All eyes on Fed
Dollar continued its upward momentum with the DXY index hovering close to a 20-year high
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19-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation
View Report
16-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Fuel Taxes: Understanding the economics of fuel taxes
Fuel taxes have been a contentious issue in India especially at a time when inflation has been increasing
View Report
16-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy
View Report
15-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious tracking major macro data releases of different economies
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14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Telecom Study: Telecom sector & 5G Auction
India has the second-largest telecom market in the world with the country registering a strong subscriber base over the last decade
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14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI provides relief
WPI for Aug’22 has come in at 12.4%, down from the peak of 13.9% in Jul'22, supported by softening global commodity prices
View Report
14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis
View Report
13-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22)
View Report
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI hardens, IIP growth falters
Headline CPI rose to 7% in Aug’22 from 6.7% in Jul’22. Food inflation rose sharply to 7.6% from 6.7% in Jul’22 led by vegetables, fruit and milk and pulses
View Report
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | IPO Study: How has the IPO market performed?
2021 was the year for the equity market where we witnessed high IPO issuances as companies accessed this avenue for raising funds
View Report
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India)
View Report
09-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 5% above LPA as of 8 Sep 2022
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09-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record
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08-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth
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07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Bonds: Corporate bonds market in India
With the growing importance of investment for higher GDP growth, there is an urgent need for alternative sources of financing; and corporate bonds market can play an important role here
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07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic macros appear to be insulated
Last month, major market mover has been the Jackson Hole Symposium
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07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US’ Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7
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06-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22
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05-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Financial Soundness: Comparative study on global financial soundness indicators
The study is based on IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators database
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05-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est. 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k
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02-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2022
Following the statements by major central bankers at Jackson Hole, it is expected that global monetary conditions will continue to tighten, until inflation is brought down
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02-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 232,000 suggesting continued labour market strength
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01-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown steepest increase, post Jackson Hole conference
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01-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained volatile amidst increased fears of a global recession
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30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Market Performance: India versus global equity markets
In CY22 so far, we have observed that Indian equity markets (both Sensex and Nifty) have performed relatively better than other major global equity markets
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30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s in store for INR
Volatility returned to the global markets this week driven largely by a more hawkish than expected commentary from the Fed Chair
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30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained volatile following Fed Chair’s speech which was more hawkish than market expectations
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29-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in a highly anticipated speech hinted at further rate hikes to curb inflation, while acknowledging that this may translate into slower growth and softer labour-market conditions
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26-Aug-22
BOB Economics | State Budgets: State finances in FY22 – A recap
In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY22 and FY23, we selected a sample of 21 major states for which the data was readily available
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26-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors are cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium
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25-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 9% above LPA as of 24 Aug 2022
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25-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growth and inflationary concerns continued to bother global economy
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24-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Housing loans: Study on housing loan market in India
The real estate sector plays an important role in the economy, especially true for a developing economy like India with a huge population, implying an ever increasing demand for housing
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24-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings reflected muted economic activity in the US (composite reading 27-month low) and Eurozone (18-month low)
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23-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Industry and Capacity Utilization: Turnover to Asset ratio FY22
India’s economy has grown by 8.7% in FY22 after contracting by 6.6% in FY21
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23-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currency indices continued to slide amidst energy woes in Europe
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22-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors are anticipating hawkish comments from Fed Chair at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium
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22-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
IMD had predicted the second half of the South-West monsoon will continue to receive normal rainfall, same as the first half
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19-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Led by uncertainty over the pace of future rate hike by Fed, kept the investors on the edge as they looked for further cues
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18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Banking Q1FY23 Review: Financial highlights of banks
We have analysed the financial performance of 35 banks of which 12 are Public, 19 Private Sector Banks (PVBs) and remaining 4 are Small Finance Banks
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18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Have tables turned?
After a rather volatile period of 2 months, the global currency markets attained some semblance of stability in the first fortnight of August
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18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors monitored US Fed minutes which signalled that Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in order to rein in inflation
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17-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Construction of US housing starts dropped to its lowest level since Feb’21 to 1.44mn units in Jul’22 from 1.55mn units in Jun’22, signalling the impact of the soaring mortgage rates
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12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI moderates, IIP growth weakens
Headline CPI cooled off to 6.9% in Jul’22 from 7% in Jun’22
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12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
As South-West monsoon picked up pace, resulting in cumulative rainfall of 8% above LPA as of 12 Aug 2022
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12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the dip in US CPI, recent data shows that US PPI also cooled off in Jul’22
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11-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI rose by 8.5% in Jul’22 versus est.: 8.7% and 9.1% in Jun’22, supported by ~20% decline in gasoline prices
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10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI frontloads rate hike
In its latest policy, RBI hiked repo rate by 50bps taking the cumulative rate hike in repo rate to 140bps in the current cycle
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10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of India Inc. indicate?
We have in this study examined financial performance of 3180 companies (excluding financial companies) and noted the trend in interest coverage ratio defined as Operating profit to Interest
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10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors cautiously await US CPI print due later in the day today, which is expected to have eased to 8.7% in Jul’22 from 9.1% in Jun’22
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08-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected macro prints in US, Europe and Asia boosted investor sentiments (yields and crude closed higher)
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06-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
Advancement of South-West monsoon has resulted in cumulative rainfall at 6% above LPA as of 5 Aug 2022
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05-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI front-loading rate hikes
RBI continued with hawkish policy as repo rate was hiked (3rd time in a row) by 50bps and is back to the pre-pandemic level
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05-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of England (BoE) raised policy rates by an expected 50bps (biggest rate hike since CY95), as it attempts to tame skyrocketing inflation
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04-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Strong macro data from the US lifted market sentiments globally
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03-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Policy Rates: Is there a link between Indian and US interest rates?
It has been observed that global monetary policy rates tend to move in tandem, with the US Fed generally leading the global rate cycle
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03-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Possibility of an escalation in US-China conflict amidst US House of Representative Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, impacted investor sentiments
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02-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of a global recession surfaced again as PMIs showed moderation in manufacturing activity in Europe, US and China amidst muted demand and high inflation
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
South-West monsoon has registered above normal rainfall at 8% (above LPA) till 31 Jul 2022
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2022
High frequency indicators (PMIs, consumer/business sentiment index) in US, China and Eurozone are pointing towards slowdown in economic activity
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have moderated in the current fortnight with Germany and US 10Y yield falling as much as 32 and 27bps respectively
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR stages a comeback
Global currencies edged up against a weaker dollar
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Euro Area GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2CY22 (QoQ) beating expectations of a 0.2% increase
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29-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
South-West monsoon picked up pace and registered above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 29 Jul 2022
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29-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward
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28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Employment Study: Job scene in India Inc.
FY22 was a year when the economy got back on its feet
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28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | FOMC: US Fed hikes rate again
In line with market expectations, US Fed hiked policy rate by 75 bps in its latest meeting
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28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps
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27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Investment Scenario & Funding: Investment in FY23 started on a weaker note
Investment climate in India in Q1FY23 started on a weaker tone with data pointing towards sharp drop in new project announcements relative to Q4FY22.
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27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: Uncertain and Gloomy
After recovering quickly in 2021 from the pandemic induced downturn in CY20, the global economy is on the path of uncertainty and a slowdown in CY22 and CY23
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27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”
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26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 11% above LPA till 25 Jul 2022
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26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Indian Economy Prognosis: What to expect in FY23
FY23 has begun on a rather sombre note for the Indian economy with mixed signals
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26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Easing pressure on commodity prices
After sharp increase in global commodity prices, post the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, prices have witnessed a dip in the last month
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26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50-75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check
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25-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge
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21-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK’s CPI print rose to its fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in Jun’22, on YoY basis, against expectation of 9.3% and 9.1% in May’22, led by food and fuel
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20-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained cautious awaiting ECB’s policy decision where even a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out considering the Jun’22 CPI inflation print is still elevated at 8.6%
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19-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
INR continued to hit fresh record low and just shy of the US$ 80/bbl mark
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18-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Bonds' Wrap: Fortnightly Review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown moderation across the board as recession fears outweighed inflationary concerns
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18-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro prints in the US remained mixed with retail sales gaining ground and industrial production remaining muted in Jun’22
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15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing
With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 14% above LPA till 15 Jul 2022
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15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: More depreciation inevitable
Global currencies depreciated against the dollar as a hotter than expected US inflation report drove the currency higher
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15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown
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14-Jul-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI begins to cool down
WPI for Jun'22 has come in at 15.2%, down from the peak of 15.9% in May'22, supported by softening global commodity prices
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14-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets
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13-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today
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12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI sticky, IIP inched up
Headline CPI remained sticky at 7% in Jun’22 and ending Q1FY23 at 7.3% against RBI’s estimate of 7.3%
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12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Depreciating INR: a major concern
The most notable fact off late has been depreciating INR which is touching record low every other day
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12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK
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11-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed
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08-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing
Government of India in Jun’22 had hiked the MSP of Kharif crops with the objective to provide remunerative prices and encourage crop diversification
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08-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment
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07-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth
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06-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession
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05-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation
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04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2022
Fears of slowdown in global growth have intensified over the past month as multiple high frequency indictors are showing strains of stress (PMIs, commodity prices)
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04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee to remain under pressure
Increasing risks of global recession drove global currencies lower
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04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies
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30-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks
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29-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets
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28-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet
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27-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed
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24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Global Inflation: Global inflation boiling up
Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued
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24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | FPI Flows: What is driving FPI flows?
FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times
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24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown
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23-Jun-22
BOB Economics Research | Forex Cover: Forex risk of India Inc.
The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy
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23-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage
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22-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22
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21-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22
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20-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22
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17-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception
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16-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Fuel Prices: Do states have space to lower VAT on petrol?
With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards
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16-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar
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15-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks
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14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI remains elevated
Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22
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14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee slips to a record-low: What to make of it?
Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength
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14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation
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13-Jun-22
BOB Economics | CPI: Favourable base supported CPI
Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base
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13-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81
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10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial output climbs to 8-month high
India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect
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10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Central banks on war footing
With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance
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10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22
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09-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%
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08-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Tackling inflation a priority
RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns
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08-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier
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07-Jun-22
BOB Economics | FY22 Review: Financial highlights of banks
We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)
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07-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns
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06-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: More rate hikes on the cards
In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps
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06-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction
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03-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike
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02-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2022
With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated
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02-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict
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01-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR
With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated
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01-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge
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31-May-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.7% in FY22
Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%
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31-May-22
BOB Economics | FY22 GDP Growth: GDP growth stands at 8.7% in FY22
Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21
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31-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia
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30-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting
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27-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia
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26-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings
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25-May-22
BOB Economics | GDP Expectations: Recovery in FY22
Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services
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25-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth
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24-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory
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23-May-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Government cuts excise etc. What are fiscal implications?
Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation
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23-May-22
BOB Economics | External Borrowings: Taking stock of ECBs
External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs
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23-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis
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20-May-22
BOB Economics | Crop Production: 3rd Advance Estimates – Rabi and Kharif production
According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years
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20-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices
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19-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)
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18-May-22
BOB Economics | Investment Trends: Corporate investment in H1-FY22
Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21
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18-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to macro prints (US retail sales and industrial production) and US Fed Chair Powell’s speech
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17-May-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR
DXY continued to hover around a 20-year high in May’22 amidst safe-haven demand as well as expectations of aggressive rate hikes by Fed
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17-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors remained concerned about global economic recovery which remains fragile as inflationary pressure continue to build on globally
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13-May-22
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 20.1bn in Apr’22 from US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22
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13-May-22
BOB Economics | Petrol Prices: How high is the price of petrol in India?
Rising fuel prices in India has led to considerable debate on which government, state or central, should be lowering their taxes to keep prices under control
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13-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global growth concerns drove markets lower worldwide
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12-May-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation spikes, IIP inching up
India’s CPI rose to 7.8% in Apr’22 from 7% in Mar’22, reaching the highest level since May’14
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12-May-22
BOB Economics | Investment Scenario: Have investment intentions turned around?
New project announcements in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly to Rs 6.2 lakh crore in FY22 versus Rs 3.2 lakh crore in FY20
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12-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to US CPI print which came in at 8.3% for Apr’22 (est.: 8.1%), lower than previous month’s 8.5%, suggesting inflation might have peaked
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11-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await US CPI print (est. 8.5% YoY) to gauge Fed’ future policy decisions
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10-May-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: More rate hikes in the offing
Globally central banks are faced with the dilemma of high inflation and low growth
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10-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns over global growth drove global markets
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09-May-22
BOB Economics | FPI Flows: Trends in FPI flows in India
FPIs play an important role in the economy in terms of providing support to the equity and debt market besides adding strength to the foreign capital flows
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09-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained jittery amidst rising risks to global growth
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06-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors continued to monitor central bank decisions globally
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05-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectations, Fed hiked the policy rate by 50bps, biggest jump in over 22-years and also announced measures to reduce its US$ 9tn balance sheet starting next month
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04-May-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: RBI’s Surprise move
RBI clearly surprised markets by going for a rather abrupt 40bps hike in policy rate, signalling withdrawal of accommodation and also hiking the CRR rate by 50bps
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04-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market is eyeing Fed’s policy decision and anticipating a rate hike of 50bps and also balance sheet reduction
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02-May-22
BOB Economics | Employment Study: What employment data suggests?
Employment is one of the leading indicators of growth as an increase in the same is a signal that more jobs are being created which will generate income and demand
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02-May-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2022
War between Russia and Ukraine continues to keep global commodity prices elevated
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02-May-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain range-bound
Global currencies depreciated against the dollar in the last fortnight
View Report
02-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained rattled by the stagflation like situation worldwide
View Report
29-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP contracted unexpectedly by 1.4% in Q1CY22 (est. +1%) on the back of rising Covid-19 cases and waning fiscal support
View Report
28-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Expectations of a 50bps rate hike by the Fed next week, led to a sharp jump in US 10Y yield. DXY too strengthened to a 5-year high
View Report
27-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to track developments surrounding China’s Covid-19 outbreak and Fed policy tightening
View Report
26-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s Covid-19 outbreak worsened as reports indicated possibility of lockdown in Beijing
View Report
25-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Increasing hawkish rhetoric by major Central Banks and spread of Covid-19 in China kept global markets on edge
View Report
22-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Major global yields (US, Germany and UK) rose sharply following hawkish comments from Fed Chair and ECB officials
View Report
21-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US 10Y yield dropped sharply following IMF’s downgrade of global growth projection
View Report
20-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Rising Oil Prices: What does the past tell us?
Evaluating historical data of international crude price and its impact on India’s growth and inflation reveal some interesting results
View Report
20-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global yields rose sharply led by US as Fed officials signalled of a 75bps rate hike amidst aggravating inflationary concerns
View Report
19-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Impact: Is normal monsoon a good indicator for agriculture?
Every year, before the beginning of the monsoon season, different agencies predict if the rainfall will be normal or not
View Report
19-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Surge in oil prices remains key risk to INR
Global currencies closed lower against the dollar
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19-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currencies broadly closed lower as war tensions escalated
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18-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
International oil prices rose by 2.7% on reports of phased sanction by EU on Russian oil
View Report
13-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Trade: Record-high exports
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 18.5bn in Mar’22 from US$ 20.9bn in Feb’22 as exports rose at a much faster pace than imports on a MoM basis
View Report
13-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Retail inflation in both US (8.5% versus 8.4%) and India (6.95% versus 6.4%) was reported to be higher than expected in Mar’22
View Report
12-Apr-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Industrial output up; inflation firms up
India’s industrial output inched up at a much slower pace to 1.7% in Feb’22 (1.5% in Jan’22) with manufacturing output up by 0.8%
View Report
12-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
International oil prices fell below US$100/bbl-a first since 16 Mar 2022, as investors are concerned about extended lockdown in China to curb Covid-19 cases
View Report
11-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI hints at policy normalisation
Global markets continue to be watchful as concerns over ongoing Russia-Ukraine war eased
View Report
11-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following new set of sanctions announced by the US on Russia, EU has also announced sanctions on Friday
View Report
08-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Sri Lanka: Financial crisis explained
Sri Lanka has been embroiled in an economic crisis amidst record-high inflation and mounting debt
View Report
08-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: Inflation back in focus
RBI has kept the policy rates unchanged and is tilted towards what may be called a hawkish view as it has rephrased its accommodative stance while keeping it unchanged
View Report
08-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored hawkish Fed commentary
View Report
07-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
FOMC meeting minutes highlighted that Fed officials might raise policy rates by 50bps in the next meeting
View Report
06-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tracked hawkish comments from Fed officials as well as developments surrounding the possibility of fresh sanctions on Russia by US and European countries
View Report
05-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: Stance to be changed, rates on hold
In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Apr 2022, we expect MPC to change stance from accommodative to neutral
View Report
05-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Reports that Western countries are mulling fresh sanctions on Russia, including possible ban on Russian coal and oil imports once again cast a shadow on global recovery
View Report
04-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data for US unemployment shows that the rate was down to 2-year low of 3.6% Mar’22, indicating that a strong labour market will push US Fed to hiking rates more aggressively
View Report
01-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to stabilise at 75.5-76.5/$
After depreciating to a record-low of 76.97/$, INR has stabilised in the last few days
View Report
01-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Industry Report: Which industries are vulnerable in terms of fuel cost
RBI in a recent report has highlighted three industries-electricity, chemicals and automobiles, as being the most vulnerable sectors in terms of fossil fuel intensity
View Report
01-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2022
With continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, commodity prices
remain elevated
View Report
01-Apr-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Risk of elevated inflation continued to pose concerns for global markets. Germany’s inflation print rose to its 30-year high
View Report
31-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 and 48.4 respectively in Mar’22 led by disruption in economic activities due to covid-19 outbreak
View Report
30-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Led by hopes of possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global equity indices ended higher
View Report
29-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Oil prices slumped lower by 6.8% to US$ 113/bbl
View Report
28-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s industrial profits rose by 5% for the Jan-Feb’21 period (4.2% in Dec’21)
View Report
25-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US’ initial jobless claims fell to 187k (est.: 212k) as of week ending 19 Mar 2022, from 216 in the previous week
View Report
24-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US President Joe Biden is meeting European and NATO leaders to announce fresh sanctions on Russia
View Report
17-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed raised policy rate for the first time since CY18 by 25bps
View Report
16-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Forex Update: What the war has meant?
The Ukraine war tended to cast a shadow on the forex market and the tendency was for currencies to depreciate against the dollar
View Report
16-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored progress between Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks
View Report
15-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Sensex and FPI: Does FPI drive the Markets?
Amongst emerging countries, India has remained a bright spot for foreign investors
View Report
15-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports stable; Imports rebound
India’s trade deficit in Feb’22 widened to 3-month high of US$ 20.9bn from US$ 17.4bn in Jan’22
View Report
15-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored geopolitical developments around Russia and Ukraine
View Report
14-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of industries indicate?
A quick indicator of solvency of companies is the interest cover
View Report
14-Mar-22
BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation remains a concern
CPI inflation rose to 6.1% against market consensus of 6%
View Report
14-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tracked the progress of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy talks
View Report
11-Mar-22
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth improves
IIP growth rose to 1.3% in Jan’22 from 0.7% in Dec’21 led by manufacturing (1.1% from 0.2% in Dec’21) and mining output (2.8% from 2.6% in Dec’21)
View Report
11-Mar-22
BOB Economics | State of Discoms: DISCOMs under stress
Against the background of the recently concluded State Elections where free power was an important issue, we analyse the current situation of DISCOMs in states
View Report
11-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to surging US inflation and ECB comments on winding down its assets purchase programme sooner than expected
View Report
10-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Equity markets in advanced countries took a breather as commodity prices eased from near record-highs
View Report
09-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Oil prices surged further (highest since the 2008 Financial crisis), as US announced a ban on oil imports from Russia
View Report
08-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on Russia-Ukraine war
Russia-Ukraine war has grappled markets worldwide
View Report
08-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Oil prices continued to edge upwards amidst reports that US is likely to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy sector
View Report
07-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to dominate global markets and outweighed stronger than expected US jobs report and comments from Fed Chair
View Report
04-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Worsening Russia and Ukraine situation continued to impact global markets
View Report
03-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Where are commodity prices headed?
The escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has impacted commodity prices to a considerable extent
View Report
03-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were rattled by escalating geopolitical tensions
View Report
02-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Wrap – February 2022
Last month saw multiple economic and political developments at domestic and global levels
View Report
02-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to trade at ~76/$ in Mar’22
Risks to the INR outlook have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the resulting rise in oil prices
View Report
02-Mar-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on edge as hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued
View Report
28-Feb-22
BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: Q3FY22 GDP at 5.4%
India’s GDP growth is estimated at 8.9% in FY22 (-6.6% in FY21)
View Report
28-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currencies closed higher supported by better macro print in the US (consumer spending, durable goods orders) and Euro Area (economic confidence index)
View Report
25-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Ukraine crisis: Impact of Ukraine crisis on India
Tension between Russia and Ukraine was simmering in the last few months
View Report
25-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets fell as Russia moved troops into Ukrainian borders and launched an attack
View Report
24-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are eyeing deepening tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Ukraine has announced a 30-day state of emergency in the country
View Report
23-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to monitor reaction to Russia’s recognition of 2 separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine and moving its troops in those areas
View Report
22-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remain jittery, driven by mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine
View Report
21-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remain wary of geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine and are closing tracking global efforts to diffuse the tensions
View Report
18-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor geopolitical developments between Russia-Ukraine
View Report
17-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tracked developments over the Russia-Ukraine tensions and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting
View Report
16-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor positive development surrounding Russia and Ukraine
View Report
15-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Trade - Exports and imports moderate in Jan’22
India’s trade deficit in FYTD22 has surged to US$ 154.8bn from US$ 73.6bn in FYTD21
View Report
15-Feb-22
BOB Economics | States Update - State elections: Economic status of states
With 5 states (13.2% of India’s GDP) entering their Assembly elections, it
is interesting to see how they stack up in relative terms on economic and
social indicators
View Report
15-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Globally, markets remain on edge due to heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia
View Report
14-Feb-22
BOB Economics | CPI: CPI touches 6%
CPI inflation rose to 6% in Jan’22 from 5.7% in Dec’21, led by food inflation (5.4% versus 4%)
View Report
14-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Globally central banks are giving different views
View Report
11-Feb-22
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth disappoints
IIP growth eased to 0.4% in Dec’21 from 1.3% in Nov’21 led by mining (2.6% from 4.9% in Nov’21) and manufacturing output (declined by -0.1% from an increase of 0.8%)
View Report
11-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI rose by 7.5% (highest since 1982) in Jan’22 compared with 7% in Dec’21 and estimated 7.3% increase
View Report
10-Feb-22
BOB Economics | RBI policy: Inflation underestimated, growth still a priority
RBI has kept all policy rates unchanged
View Report
10-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data due later in the week remains a key watchable for the markets
View Report
09-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await US CPI print, due this Thursday, and are also tracking the progress of US-Iran talking to assess the impact on oil supply and prices
View Report
08-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI to raise reverse repo rate
India’s recovery has gained momentum with a steady moderation in Covid-19 cases recently
View Report
08-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are closely tracking US-Iran talks and await US CPI print due this week for Fed policy guidance
View Report
05-Feb-22
BOB Economics | RBI: Pre-Policy View - Time to Hike: Reverse Repo
Elevated crude oil and commodity prices continue to add to India’s inflation concerns
View Report
04-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets closely tracked the policy rate decisions by central banks
View Report
03-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Rate: Bond versus Bank finance - An analysis of rates
In the current scenario, where interest rates are rising (20bps increase in 10Y Gsec yield in Feb’22, 15bps increase in AAA rated corporate yield and 18bps increase in AA+ paper of 10Y tenor), the primary challenge is funding
View Report
03-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to rally
View Report
02-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored manufacturing PMI prints and awaited BoE and ECB’s policy meet
View Report
01-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis
Budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with major thrust given to government capex
View Report
01-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Union Budget 2022-23: Investment focused budget
Union budget for FY23 is an investment oriented budget, with focus on boosting government capex and reviving private sector spending
View Report
01-Feb-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets shifted their focus towards Central Bank meetings scheduled later this week
View Report
31-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Economic Survey: Economic Survey advocates “Agile” approach
This year’s Economic Survey has painted a positive picture of growth, supported by central Government’s “Barbell strategy and Agile response”
View Report
31-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor hawkish comments by Fed
View Report
28-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Except Dow (flat) and FTSE (higher), other global indices ended lower as investors monitored hawkish commentary by Fed
View Report
27-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to range between 75-76/$
INR has depreciated sharply today in the aftermath of Fed policy
View Report
27-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US 10Y yield shot up by 9bps as Fed Chair remarked that “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate” signalling rate hike cycle to begin in Mar’22
View Report
25-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were volatile as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to build
View Report
24-Jan-22
BOB Economics | FY23 Budget Preview: What to watch for?
Budget for FY23 will see the government walking the tight rope in terms of boosting growth and achieving fiscal consolidation
View Report
24-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and bond indices ended lower, as investors remained cautious awaiting FOMC comments
View Report
20-Jan-22
BOB Economics | FY22 Fiscal Review: Fiscal consolidation to take a hit
Despite a higher than projected nominal GDP growth and pick up in revenues, we except fiscal deficit in FY22 to come at 7%
View Report
20-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets were volatile as investors await comments from US Federal Reserve
View Report
19-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, FM is likely to consider a waiver of capital gain tax in the upcoming Union Budget of India
View Report
18-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
E-way bill generation in India has remained broadly steady in Jan’22 so far with a daily average of 2.1mn e-way bills generated in the week ending 16 Jan 2022, compared with daily average of 2mn for the week ending 9 Jan 2022
View Report
17-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
SIAM’s data showed that India’s automobile sales fell by 21.8% in Dec’21 against 7.2% decline in Nov’21
View Report
14-Jan-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI eases in Dec’21
WPI inflation fell from 14.2% in Nov’21 to 13.6% in Dec’21. But the rate is still very high and not a major consolation
View Report
14-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to fructify “fair and balanced” FTA, India and UK launched formal negotiations
View Report
13-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India had launched the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) in Mar'20, wherein free food grains were provided to over 800mn beneficiaries under the NFSA
View Report
12-Jan-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation and industrial growth: horns of dilemma?
CPI inflation came in as per our expectation of 5.6%
View Report
12-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank has kept its forecast for India’s GDP growth unchanged at 8.3% in FY22
View Report
11-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) moderated to 7.55% from 7.74% in the previous week
View Report
10-Jan-22
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by US$ 1.5bn to US$ 633.6bn in the week ended 31 Dec 2021
View Report
07-Jan-22
BOB Economics | FY22 GDP: FY22 GDP expected at 9.2%
India’s GDP growth is estimated at 9.2% in FY22 (-7.3% in FY21). Our forecast was 9.3%
View Report
17-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India (GoI) has approved sovereign guarantee of Rs 306bn for security receipts (SRs) issued by NARCL for acquiring of stressed loan assets
View Report
16-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
With the objective of creating a manufacturing hub, Government of India has approved the PLI scheme in auto and drone industries with the total allocation of Rs 260.6bn
View Report
15-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 13.8bn in Aug’21 versus US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by a surge in gold imports
View Report
14-Sep-21
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation at elevated levels, food inflation dips
WPI inflation inched up to 11.4% in Aug’21 from 11.2% in Jul’21
View Report
14-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is expected to borrow additional Rs 840bn in H2FY22 to meet GST shortfall of States
View Report
13-Sep-21
BOB Economics | CPI: Food inflation drives CPI lower
CPI inflation moderated to 5.3% in Aug’21 led by food inflation which softened to 3.1% (4% in Jul’21)
View Report
13-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation data to guide markets
Global yields inched up led by China where producer prices increased at the highest pace since Aug’08
View Report
13-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to SIAM, total auto sales declined by 11.4% in Aug'21 from 4% increase in Jul'21 led by shortage of semiconductor which has already impacted the overall production
View Report
11-Sep-21
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial activity continues to recover
Industrial output increased by 11.5% in Jul’21 from 13.6% in Jun’21
View Report
09-Sep-21
Monthly Chartbook: India’s improving Vaccination rate to boost growth
India’s vaccinations run-rate (7-DMA) has increased to 7.5mn
View Report
09-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to encourage crop diversification and boost production, Government of India has increased MSP for Rabi crops for marketing season 2022-23 (beginning 1 Apr 2022)
View Report
08-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has procured over 89mn metric tonne (+16% YoY) of paddy this year (a record high) in the ongoing Kharif marketing season, as of 5 Sep 2021
View Report
07-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per FADA, India's auto sales rose at a much slower pace of 14.5% in Aug'21 from 34.1% in Jul'21
View Report
06-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving
With US payroll data missing estimates, US$ underperformed
View Report
06-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI rebounded sharply in Aug’21 to 56.7 from 45.4 in Jul’21, led by pick up in new orders and improved demand conditions
View Report
03-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is expected to augment the pace of capital expenditure which has remained muted in three of the five months through Jul’21
View Report
03-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens led by higher gold imports
India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 13.9bn in Aug’21 from US$ 11bn in Jul’21 led by higher gold imports
View Report
02-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s GST collections for Jul’21 remained broadly steady at Rs 1.1tn versus Rs 1.2tn in Jun’21
View Report
01-Sep-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year
View Report
31-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Q1FY22 GDP: Growth recovers on a low base
India’s economy reported a sharp rebound at 20.1% in Q1FY22 over a low base of (-) 24.4% last year
View Report
31-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports from Special Economic Zones (SEZs) rose by 41.5% on a YoY basis to Rs 2.15tn in Q1FY22
View Report
30-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global markets rally, India’s activity improving
Global yields rose as Fed Chair indicated that US Fed may start tapering asset purchases later this year
View Report
30-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 22.5bn in Q1FY22 compared with US$ 11.8bn in Q1FY21
View Report
27-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to improve digital penetration in the economy, RBI has extended the scheme for encouraging deployment of Point of Sale (PoS) infrastructure to street vendors covered under the PM SVANidhi programme in Tier-1 and Tier-2 centres
View Report
26-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 64bn and stood at Rs 29.5tn for the week ending 20 Aug 2021
View Report
25-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Weekly GST e-way bill generation data shows that after a slow start in Aug’21, activity has gathered momentum
View Report
24-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to crowd in private investment, government has unveiled a National Monetisation Plan (NMP) of brownfield assets, to generate upfront revenue of Rs 6tn between FY22-25
View Report
23-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives DXY to 9-month high
Slower than anticipated growth in China, lockdown measures to contain spread of Covid-19 and sooner than expected tapering signal from Fed minutes drove DXY index to a 9-month high
View Report
23-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s EPFO data shows that net payroll additions rose to 12.8mn in Jun’21 from 7.7mn in May’21
View Report
20-Aug-21
BOB Economics | August MPC minutes: Growth remains a priority
August minutes show MPC members are worried about growth and remain steadfast on supporting the nascent recovery underway
View Report
20-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to reduce import dependence of edible oil, Union Cabinet of India has approved a new oil palm scheme for the next 5 years.
View Report
18-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI bought record US$ 18.6bn in the spot market (net) in Jun’21 compared with US$ 5.8bn purchase in May’21
View Report
17-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: MPC and FOMC minutes hold the key
US 10 year yield fell by 6bps on the back of drop in US consumer confidence
View Report
17-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)
View Report
16-Aug-21
BOB Economics | WPI: Food and Fuel inflation drops, core inches up
WPI inflation eased to 3-month low of 11.2% in Jul’21 from 12.1% in Jun'21, led by lower food (4.5% in Jul’21 from 6.7% in Jun'21) and fuel inflation (26% in Jul’21 from 32.8% in Jun'21)
View Report
13-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s IIP growth eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect. Notably, over a 2-year horizon, output is down by 5.2% led by capital goods and durables
View Report
12-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases
India’s IIP eased to 13.6% in Jun’21 led by base effect
View Report
12-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to 4th Advance Estimates, foodgrain production is expected to have risen to a record 308.6mn ton in the crop year 2020-2021 (higher by 3.75% versus last year)
View Report
11-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports rose by 50.5% between 1-7 Aug 2021 to US$ 7.4bn, on a YoY basis
View Report
10-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Outlook improving, inflation remains a worry
India’s economic outlook seems to be improving with rising vaccinations, falling Covid-19 cases and improvement in corporate profitability
View Report
10-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to FADA, automobile registrations rose by 34.1% in Jul'21 (22.6% in Jun'21 on YoY basis) on the back of calibrated reopening of the economy after Covid-19 induced lockdown
View Report
09-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation back in focus
US yields rose on the back of better than estimated data (payroll, factory orders, services PMI surprised positively)
View Report
09-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s consumer confidence remained weak in Jul’21 at 48.6 from 48.5 in May’21 (all time-low), as households reported higher prices and lower income compared with last year
View Report
06-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: Initial signs of normalisation
MPC maintained status quo on rates
View Report
06-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has introduced Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 to scrap the retrospective tax law
View Report
05-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI remained in contraction for the third month in a row, albeit at a softer pace
View Report
04-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total e-way bills generated in Jul’21 rose to 64.2mn (+17.3% MoM), highest in FYTD22 and up from 54.7mn in Jun’21
View Report
03-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports shine, oil and gold imports accelerate
India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 11.2bn in Jul’21 from US$ 9.4bn in Jun’21 led by higher oil and gold imports
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03-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to a 3-month high of 55.3 in Jul’21 from 48.1 in Jun’21
View Report
02-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI policy to guide markets
Rising Covid-19 cases globally, Fed’s dovish comments and lower than estimated US macro data drove global yields lower
View Report
02-Aug-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Jun’21 rose to Rs 1.2tn, highest so far in FYTD22, from Rs 928bn in May’21
View Report
30-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Union Cabinet has approved amendments to the General Insurance Business (Nationalisation) Act (GIBNA)
View Report
29-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Cabinet has cleared the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) Bill and Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Amendment Bill
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28-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 9.5% from 12.5% earlier
View Report
27-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has reduced the basic customs duty on import of lentils (except US) to 0% from 10%
View Report
26-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields ease with rising Covid-19 cases
Global yields fell with rising Covid cases globally
View Report
26-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a fresh record high of US$ 612.7bn in the week ended 16 Jul 2021
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23-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 16 Jul 2021
View Report
22-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since Apr’21 at 7.2% as of 21 Jul 2021 from 7.7% in the previous week
View Report
20-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ADB has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 lower to 10% from 11% estimated earlier due to the second wave of Covid-19
View Report
19-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s economic activity improves further
Global yields fell led by US and Germany as global growth worries resurfaced
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19-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021
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16-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade data showed that exports in Jun’21 rose to US$ 32.5bn versus US$ 21.9bn in Jun’20
View Report
15-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 121bn and stood at Rs 29.8tn for the week ending 9 July 2021
View Report
14-Jul-21
BOB Economics | WPI: Peak is behind
WPI inflation moderated to 12.1% in Jun'21 from 12.9% in May’21, led by lower food (6.7% in Jun'21 from 8.1% in May'21) and fuel inflation (32.8% in Jun'21 from 37.6% in May’21)
View Report
14-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
S&P has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating for 14th year in a row to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on the back of gradual recovery in the economy
View Report
13-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity
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12-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity slows, inflation eases
India’s industrial output slowed down to 29.3% in May’21, led by manufacturing and electricity
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12-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Eye on CPI
Global yields fell this week on the back of concerns over delta variant
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12-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of US$ 610bn in the week ended 2 Jul 2021
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09-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Activity improving, inflation a cause of worry
India’s economic recovery has gained pace with activity now 9% below Feb’20 levels from 19% below baseline in May’21
View Report
09-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s auto sales (22.5% in Jun’21) signaled early signs of recovery on the back of pent up-demand and retail outlets reopening with gradual easing of state-wide restrictions
View Report
08-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 67.4bn and stood at Rs 29.7tn for the week ending 2 July 2021
View Report
07-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s GST collections for May’21 fell to Rs 928bn from Rs 1tn in Apr’21, thus falling below the Rs 1tn mark for the first time since Sep’20
View Report
06-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI moderated further to 41.2 in Jun’21 from 46.4 in May’21
View Report
05-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields inch up, global yields fall
Global yields fell, led by US 10Y which declined by 10bps even as consumer confidence, payrolls and home sales were strong
View Report
05-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to its lowest since May’21 at 8.5% as of 4 Jul 2021 from 9.7% in the previous week
View Report
02-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports see a stellar recovery
India’s trade deficit rose to US$ 9.4bn from US$ 6.3bn in May’21 led by higher oil and non-oil-non-gold imports
View Report
02-Jul-21
BOB Economics | RBI FSR: Emerging stress in MSMEs and Consumer loans
While RBI has lowered its banking sector stress projections, it has pointed out rising stress in MSME loans of PSBs and consumer credit in case of PVBs and NBFCs
View Report
02-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s Financial Stability Report reiterated impact of second wave on economy in-line with its revised GDP projection of 9.5% for FY22
View Report
01-Jul-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India's eight core industries output eased to 16.8% in May'21 from 60.9% in Apr'21
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30-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Rising oil prices=wider current account deficit
India’s Current account deficit increased to 1% of GDP in Q4FY21 led by rising trade deficit
View Report
30-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has cut basic custom duty on crude palm oil to 10% from 15% earlier and on refined palm oil to 37.5% from 45% earlier w.e.f 30 Jun 2021 till 30 Sep 2021
View Report
29-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Finance Minister of India announced a stimulus package for sectors most impacted by the second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs. MSMEs will get a big boost by way of increase in ECLGS by Rs 1.5tn
View Report
28-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Stimulus to boost growth
FM today announced stimulus package for sectors most impacted by second wave: MSMEs, health, farm, tourism and MFIs
View Report
28-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global and Indian yields inching up
Global economic activity remained buoyant
View Report
28-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, 40 large CPSEs (with annual capex budget more than Rs 5bn) have achieved 10% (Rs 630bn) of their capex spending target for FY22 (Rs 6.3tn) in Apr-May’21
View Report
25-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s economic activity is beginning to rebound as seen in the trend of e-way bills and fuel consumption in Jun’21
View Report
24-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI equity inflows into India rose by 60% to US$ 4.4bn in Apr’21 on a YoY basis
View Report
23-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Finance Ministry could seek Cabinet nod for offering sovereign guarantee to the bad bank proposed in the budget
View Report
22-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India (30-day moving average) dropped to 10.6% as of 21 Jun 2021 from 11.8% in the previous week
View Report
21-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US monetary cycle reversing
US Fed’s dot plot suggests FOMC has front-loaded rate hikes to a year earlier to 2023 along with revision in inflation and growth forecast
View Report
21-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 3.1bn to a new record high of US$ 608.1bn in the week ended 11 Jun 2021
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18-Jun-21
BOB Economics | June MPC Minutes: MPC to emphasise on inflation in next meeting
MPC members believe impact of second wave is lower than the first wave during the national lockdown
View Report
18-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has slashed the tariff value for import of edible oils
View Report
17-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s gross direct tax collections rose to Rs 2.2tn (57%) in Q1FY22 (until 15 Jun) from Rs 1.4tn last year
View Report
16-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports rose to US$ 32.3bn in May’21 (69.4% YoY) from US$ 30.6bn in Apr’21 (195.7%). Over a 2-year horizon
View Report
15-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has released a consultative document for harmonising the regulatory framework for various regulated lenders in the microfinance space
View Report
14-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Inflation: CPI springs a negative surprise
CPI surprised negatively to 6.3% in May’21 led by higher food and core inflation
View Report
14-Jun-21
BOB Economics | WPI: Rising oil and commodity prices push WPI higher
WPI inflation rose by 12.9% in May’21, highest since Sep’91, from 10.5% in Apr’21 led by fuel and power index (37.6% in May’21 from 20.9% in Apr’21) and manufactured products (10.8% in May’21 from 9% in Apr’21) index
View Report
14-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India's economic recovery continues
Even with US inflation at 5%, US 10Y yield fell as surge is expected to be transitory
View Report
14-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 6.8bn to a historic high of US$ 605bn in the week ended 4 Jun 2021
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11-Jun-21
Economics Research | IIP: Industrial output steady over a 2-year horizon
Industrial output reported a 134.4% jump in Apr’21 on account of a low base (-57.3% in Apr’20)
View Report
11-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to FADA, India’s auto sales in May’21 fell by 54.8% on MoM basis versus 28.1% decline in Apr’21
View Report
10-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India on path to recovery
Our economic activity tracker shows that economy in May’21 was 19% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 13% dip in Apr’21
View Report
10-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, India’s exports rose by 52.4% to US$ 7.7bn during 1-7 Jun 2021.
View Report
09-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY22 to 8.3% from 5.4% earlier (Jan’21).
View Report
08-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has announced free Covid-19 vaccine at government hospitals for 18-44 age group.
View Report
07-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Domestic economic activity improving
US 10Y yields closed lower. While ISM manufacturing, services PMI and jobless claims were better than estimate, non-farm payrolls rose less than expected.
View Report
07-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s total GST collections for Apr’21 moderated to Rs 1tn from Rs 1.4tn in Mar’21 (27% MoM decline).
View Report
04-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Monetary policy review: RBI extends liquidity to support growth
MPC kept repo rates on hold and will continue with accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth.
View Report
04-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI fell sharply in May’21 to 46.4 from 54 in Apr’21 due to localised lockdowns imposed by states in the wake of surging Covid-19 infections.
View Report
03-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) decreased by Rs 11.5bn and stood at Rs 29.6tn for the week ending 28 May 2021.
View Report
02-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil-non-gold imports resilient over 2 years
India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 6.3bn from US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 led by decline in gold and oil imports and higher exports.
View Report
02-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall that will be spatially distributed.
View Report
01-Jun-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s fiscal deficit (% of GDP) reached 9.3% in FY21 versus 9.5% estimated in FY21RE.
View Report
31-May-21
BOB Economics | Q4FY21 GDP: GDP surprises positively
India reported FY21 growth of (-) 7.3% compared with AE of (-) 8%.
View Report
31-May-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian states to begin phased reopening
US yields fell on the back of lower than estimated home sales and durables goods orders.
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31-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) jumped to its highest since Jun’20 at 11.58% as of 28 May 2021 from 10.26% last week.
View Report
28-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 63.3bn and stood at Rs 29.4tn for the week ending 21 May 2021.
View Report
27-May-21
BOB Economics | RBI annual report: Large surplus despite shorter accounting period
RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 7% in FY21 (Jul’20-Mar’21) to Rs 57tn (29% of GDP) as against 30% increase last year (Jul’19-Jun’20, 26% of GDP).
View Report
25-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI inflows into India rose by 10% to a historic high of US$ 81.7bn in FY21 versus US$ 74.4bn in FY20.
View Report
24-May-21
BOB Economics Research | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave Plateauing
Global yields fell on the back of dip in US housing starts and lower than expected retail sales and industrial output from China.
View Report
24-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has transferred Rs 991.22bn as surplus to the government, for 9 months (Jul’20-Mar’21) against Rs 571.28bn in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).
View Report
21-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to protect farmers from the impact of rising global commodity prices, Government has hiked the fertilizer subsidy (DAP) by 140%.
View Report
20-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 14 May 2021.
View Report
19-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has stated that the second wave of Covid-19 has far reaching impact on aggregate demand, especially with respect to loss of mobility, discretionary spending and employment.
View Report
18-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI sold net US$ 5.7bn in the spot market in Mar’21 compared with net sale of US$ 1.2bn.
View Report
17-May-21
BOB Economics | GDP Update: Growth to take a further hit
With majority of states under lockdown due to surging Covid-19 cases, we further ¬¬¬-downgrade our GDP forecast to 9.7% (11% earlier) in FY22.
View Report
17-May-21
BOB Economics | WPI: Base effect, rising commodity prices push WPI higher
WPI inflation jumped to 10.5% in Apr’21 (7.4% in Mar’21) led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.
View Report
17-May-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s second wave flattening
Global yields went up on higher than anticipated inflation in US.
View Report
17-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports rose by 195.7% in Apr’21 versus 60.3% in Mar’21, and imports rose by 167.1% versus 53.7% in Mar’21.
View Report
14-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government will release the 8th instalment under the PM-KISAN scheme amounting to Rs 190bn.
View Report
12-May-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial activity rebounds, inflation eases
India’s industrial output rose by a stellar 22.4% in Mar’21, even after adjusting for a low base.
View Report
12-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per AMFI data, AUMs of mutual funds rose to Rs 32.4tn in Apr’21 from Rs 31.4tn in Mar’21.
View Report
11-May-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery hit by second wave
Our economic activity tracker shows that economy is now 21% below Feb’20 baseline compared with a 3% dip in Mar’21.
View Report
11-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s unemployment rate continued to shoot up and rose to 8.19% (30-day moving average) as on 10 May 2021 versus 7.91% in the previous week.
View Report
10-May-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Local restrictions impact economic activity
Global yields closed lower led by US where economic data was weaker than anticipated.
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10-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports rose by 80% between 1-7 May 2021 on a YoY basis following an increase of 197.1% in Apr’21, as per preliminary data.
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07-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India and EU are expected to strengthen economic ties and cooperation in dealing with Covid-19 crisis in their upcoming meeting.
View Report
06-May-21
BOB Economics Research | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 76.3bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 30 Apr 2021.
View Report
05-May-21
BOB Economics | RBI Policy Measure: RBI measures for Covid 2.0
RBI announced a slew of measures to boost health care spending (Rs 500bn on-tap facility), last mile credit delivery to small borrowers (Rs 100bn), restructuring for MSMEs, individual borrowers and liquidity for state governments.
View Report
05-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of 7.97% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.
View Report
04-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI reading rose a tad to 55.5 in Apr’21 from 55.4 in Mar’21.
View Report
03-May-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Rising Covid-19 cases a risk to recovery
Global yields inched up on the back of rising US consumer confidence and easing of restrictions in UK.
View Report
03-May-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit widens
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Apr’21 from US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21. Oil and non-oil-non-gold imports rose by 132% and 129% respectively.
View Report
03-May-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per preliminary data, India’s exports rose by 197% in Apr’21 (60% in Mar’21).
View Report
30-Apr-21
BOB Economics | India Currency Watch: Crystal gazing the USD and INR
A rising US economic tide (6.5% in 2021) and bond yields have lifted USD after 6.7% fall in 2020.
View Report
30-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE report, India’s unemployment rate is expected to jump to 8% in Apr’21 from 6.5% in Mar’21.
View Report
29-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 73.5bn and stood at Rs 29tn for the week ending 23 Apr 2021.
View Report
28-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
With localised lockdowns in India, rail freight activity has taken a hit in Apr’21 (upto 27 Apr) as activity is down by 7% (MoM), compared with 0.4% increase in Mar’21.
View Report
27-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI sold net US$ 1.2bn in the spot market in Feb’21 for the first time in 9-months, compared with net purchase of US$ 2.9bn in Jan’21.
View Report
26-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery holds ground
Resurging flash PMIs and higher US new home sales point to durable economic recovery across the world.
View Report
26-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) rose to 7.74% as on 23 Apr 2021 from 7.31% in the previous week.
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23-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Fitch has maintained India’s sovereign rating at ‘BBB-’ with a negative outlook.
View Report
22-Apr-21
BOB Economics | April MPC Minutes: MPC steadfast on growth
MPC believes that recovery will be impacted by second wave.
View Report
22-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per EPFO’s data, 0.8mn (+1.4% YoY) new subscribers were added in Feb’21 compared with 0.9mn (+3.5%) added in Jan’21.
View Report
20-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate in India declined to 8.4% for the week ended 18 Apr 2021 from 8.6% in the previous week.
View Report
19-Apr-21
BOB Economics | GDP Update: Second wave dents India's growth
With local restrictions in place across large states (75% of India’s GDP), there is a perceptible dip in economic momentum in Apr’21 as seen in rail freight, E-Way bills, toll collection and mobility data.
View Report
19-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery pushes commodity prices higher
Global commodity prices moved higher in the week led by oil with upward revision to global demand.
View Report
19-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per IMD, India is expected to receive normal monsoon (98% of LPA) for third year in a row in 2021.
View Report
16-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 13.9bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 as gold imports rose sharply by 591.7%.
View Report
15-Apr-21
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI inflation accelerates, peak in Q1
WPI accelerated to 7.4% in Mar’21 from 4.2% in Feb’21 led by broad based increase in food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.
View Report
15-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre's indirect tax collections for FY21 have exceeded the revised target set in the Union Budget.
View Report
12-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Industrial output falls, inflation inches up
India’s industrial output fell by 3.6% in Feb’21 from 0.9% in Jan’21 led by dip in mining and manufacturing.
View Report
12-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Second wave a risk to recovery
Rising global Covid-19 infections pose a risk to global recovery.
View Report
12-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, combined capex of 37 large CPSEs was at Rs 4.6tn in FY21, which is 92% of the budgeted target and also 4.3% higher than FY20.
View Report
09-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Second wave poses risk to recovery
Rising Covid-19 infections in India pose a risk to our growth estimate of 11.5% in FY22.
View Report
09-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF in its recent statement said that India's debt to GDP ratio shot upto 90% in CY20 against 74% in CY19.
View Report
08-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 37.3bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 2 Apr 2021.
View Report
07-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Growth remains centre point of monetary policy
MPC kept repo rate on hold but removed time specific stance guidance in favour of one contingent on reviving growth.
View Report
07-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has upgraded India’s growth forecast to 12.5% in FY22 from 11.5% projected earlier.
View Report
06-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI fell to a 7-month low of 55.4 in Mar’21 from 57.5 in Feb’21.
View Report
05-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Manufacturing PMIs signal global recovery
Global yields rose with manufacturing PMIs showing signs of recovery.
View Report
05-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, new project announcements rose to Rs 1.2tn in Q4FY21 from Rs 1.1tn in Q3FY21.
View Report
03-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil imports surge
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 14.1bn in Mar’21 from US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 led by sharp rebound in gold (+584%) and non-oil-non-gold (+46%) imports.
View Report
01-Apr-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s eight core output contracted to a 6-month low of 4.6% in Feb’21 from an increase of 0.9% in Jan’21.
View Report
31-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government borrowing skewed towards long-end
Centre’s borrowing in H1FY22 is pegged at Rs 7.2tn compared with Rs 7.4tn in H1FY21.
View Report
31-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Rising imports drive current account to deficit
India’s current account went back into deficit of US$ 1.7bn (-0.2% of GDP) from surplus of US$ 15.1bn (2.4% of GDP) in Q2.
View Report
31-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre has confirmed that Rs 300bn have been transferred to states on 27 Mar 2021 as GST compensation, bringing the total amount transferred to Rs 700bn for FY21 so far.
View Report
30-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Rising Covid-19 cases a worry
Yield differential between US and other economies widened led by US vaccination drive and stimulus.
View Report
30-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate (30-day moving average) inched down to 6.48% as on 29 Mar 2021 against 6.53% in the previous week.
View Report
26-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, NHAI is planning to raise Rs 1tn through monetisation of national highways in the next 5-years.
View Report
25-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 11.6bn and stood at Rs 28.5tn for the week ending 19 Mar 2021.
View Report
24-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, central government has collected ~Rs 304bn as dividend receipts from CPSEs in FYTD21 (till 22 Mar 2021), slightly lower than the revised target of Rs 347bn.
View Report
23-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s highway construction is gaining pace as it touched a record high of 34km/day construction in FY21 (till 22 Mar 2021).
View Report
22-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields rise further
US 10Y yield rose by 10bps to a 14-month high even as Fed Chair tried to calm the markets with forward guidance of accommodative policy.
View Report
22-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
EPFO’s data indicates that 0.82mn new subscribers were added in Jan’21, broadly steady compared with 0.85mn added in Dec’20.
View Report
19-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
UNCTAD has revised India’s growth forecast for CY21 upwards to 5% from 3.9% earlier.
View Report
18-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) in India rose slightly to 6.53% as on 17 Mar 2021 from 6.52% in the previous week.
View Report
17-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 17.3% (YoY) between 1-14 Mar 2021 (US$ 14.2bn), after rising by 0.7% in Feb’21.
View Report
16-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.6bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.
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15-Mar-21
BOB Economics | WPI: Rising WPI to find its way into CPI
WPI accelerated to a 27-month high of 4.1% in Feb’21 led by higher food, fuel and manufactured products inflation.
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15-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global equities and yields inch up
Global equities continued to move higher on the back of US stimulus, global vaccination drive and economic recovery.
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15-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 580.3bn in the week ended 5 Mar 2021.
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12-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: IIP falls and inflation inches up
India’s industrial output fell by 1.6% in Jan’21 (+1.6% in Dec’20) led by drop in capital goods and consumer non-durables.
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12-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s fuel consumption fell for the 2nd straight month in Feb’21 to its lowest since Sep’20 by 4.6% (MoM basis) to 17.2mn tonnes.
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10-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
OECD has revised India’s growth forecast for FY22 higher to 12.6% from 7.9% estimated earlier and a contraction of 7.4% in FY21.
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09-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government has received over 0.13mn declarations under Vivad se Vishwas scheme involving a disputed tax of Rs 983bn.
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08-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Rising oil prices a worry
A government driven capex cycle is holding ground with general government capex spending up by 123.6% in Jan’21 (50.4% in Dec’20).
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08-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields move up as economy rebounds
US economy is showing a strong rebound with payrolls and manufacturing activity surprising positively thus driving US 10Y higher.
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08-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 51.5bn between Apr-Dec’20, compared with US$ 36.8bn in the same period last year.
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05-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is focussing on farmers producer organisations (FPOs) to support small and marginal farmers.
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04-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI jumped sharply in Feb’21 to 55.3 from 52.8 in Jan’21.
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03-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Indian government recently concluded auction of telecom spectrum garnering Rs 778bn in revenue.
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02-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Imports accelerate, exports dip
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 12.9bn in Feb’21 from US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21.
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02-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections remained above Rs 1tn mark for the 5th consecutive month in Jan’21, although it eased marginally from Rs 1.2tn (8.1%) in Dec’20 to Rs 1.1tn (7.4%) in Jan’21.
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01-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields inch up
Global reflation trade drove US 10Y to a 1-year high.
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01-Mar-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s data showed that credit demand moderated to 5.8% in Jan’21 against 5.9% in Dec’20.
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26-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Q3FY21 GDP: Growth back in positive territory
After two consecutive quarters of decline, GDP and GVA growth returned to the positive territory at 0.4% and 1% respectively in Q3FY21.
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26-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In India, cooking gas LPG prices rose for the third time in Feb’21.
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25-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per second advance estimates, India’s foodgrain output is expected to rise by 2.5% to 303mn tonne in CY21 (crop year) and will even surpass its target level (301mn tonne).
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24-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is planning to finalise an asset monetisation pipeline for the next 3 years.
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23-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.
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22-Feb-21
BOB Economics | February MPC Minutes: MPC points to medium-term inflation risks
The decline in CPI inflation has vindicated the MPCs lexicographic preference of growth over inflation.
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22-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields see a leg up
Global yields rose sharply led by US and UK, as reflation bets gained momentum amidst an improvement in economic activity.
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22-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 250mn in the week ended 12 Feb 2021 to US$ 583.7bn.
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18-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to protect the interest of investors and depositors, RBI has issued several directions for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs).
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17-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, the additional cess of Rs 13-16/lt imposed on auto fuels from Mar’20 onwards is likely to earn the exchequer around Rs 1.9tn (over FY20) compared with Rs 1.2tn estimated in FY21RE.
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16-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.5bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20.
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15-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Rising commodity and oil prices push WPI higher
WPI accelerated to 2% in Jan’21 from 1.2% in Dec’20 led by manufactured inflation at 5.1% (4.2% in Dec’20).
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15-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields rise, Indian yields fall
Global yields (except India) moved higher with steady decline in Covid-19 cases and economic upturn.
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15-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government may soon announce more schemes focussing on agriculture and its infrastructure development.
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12-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: IIP rebounds and food inflation falls
India’s industrial output improved to 1% in Dec’20 (-2.1% in Nov’20) led by acceleration in manufacturing and electricity output.
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12-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Recovery in auto industry hit a snag, as retail sales contracted by 10% in Jan'21 from an increase of 11% in Dec'20.
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11-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 16.2bn and stood at Rs 28.2tn for the week ending 05 Feb 2021.
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10-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per IEA report, India will overtake EU as the world’s third largest energy consumer by CY30.
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09-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s Finance ministry has confirmed that dues for GST compensation to states for Apr-Nov’20 period stands at Rs 2.06tn.
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08-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gaining ground
India’s FM presented a historic Budget with a vision to spend and monetise assets to lead India’s economic recovery.
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08-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s fiscal impulse drive yields higher
Global equity markets rose on the back of strong corporate results and manufacturing activity.
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08-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Centre is likely to incentivise states to pursue disinvestment in state government PSUs.
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05-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Rates on hold, focus on liquidity
MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and into next financial year.
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05-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Domestic petrol and diesel prices continued to increase in Feb’21.
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04-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services activity slightly moderated as PMI print was tad lower at 52.3 in Jan’21 versus 52.8 in Dec’20.
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03-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil exports.
View Report
02-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover, non-oil-non-gold imports stable
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 14.8bn in Jan’21 from US$ 15.4bn in Dec’20 as exports bounced back by 5.4%, led by non-oil-exports.
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02-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% in FY20.
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01-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Union Budget 2021-22: Big push for investments
The FM surprised by increasing FY21/22 fiscal deficit to 9.5%/6.8% of GDP from 4.6% of GDP in FY20.
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01-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Focus shifts to Budget and RBI policy
Global equity markets fell on the back of concerns over vaccine rollout.
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01-Feb-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s total GST collections rose to Rs 1.20tn for the month of Dec’20 versus Rs 1.15tn in Nov’20.
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29-Jan-21
BOB Economics | 1st Re of National Income: FY20 growth revised to 4%
CSO has revised FY20 growth to 4% from 4.2%.
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29-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2020-21: Double digit growth in FY22
Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 11% in FY22 after contracting by 7.7% in FY21, on the back of a low base, PLI scheme, infra investments and roll-out of vaccine drive.
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29-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, in the budget for FY22, capex spending target for 36 major CPSEs may get increased by 50-60% to Rs 7.5-8tn from Rs 4.95tn in FY21.
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28-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 7.7bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 22 Jan 2021.
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27-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has projected India’s growth to rebound to 11.5% in FY22 from a decline of 8% in FY21, to be the fastest growing country in the world.
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25-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on Budget
Hopes of US$ 1.9tn fiscal stimulus in the US under the new President lifted global equities and currencies higher.
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25-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 584.2bn in the week ended 15 Jan 2021 from a record high of US$ 586.1bn.
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22-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in the spot market in Nov’20 compared with net purchase of US$ 15.6bn in Oct’20.
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21-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 125bn and stood at Rs 28.1tn for the week ending 15 Jan 2021.
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20-Jan-21
BOB Economics | FY22 Budget Preview: Reviving growth with fiscal consolidation
A counter cyclical fiscal response to contraction in GDP growth implies India’s fiscal deficit will rise to 7.2% of GDP in FY21.
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20-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
News reports suggest that the Centre may announce complete shift to DBT for providing fertiliser subsidy to farmers in FY22 Budget.
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19-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is considering hiking custom duties by 5%-10% on about 50 items such as smartphones, electronic components, refrigerators and other electronic appliances.
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18-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India yield curve flattens
Global yields fell, equity markets were lower and DXY index rose as world economy battles another wave of Covid-19.
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18-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports have risen by 10.9% (YoY) in the first two weeks of Jan’21, compared with 0.1% increase in Dec’20.
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15-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India's passenger vehicles sales noticed a sharp uptick as it registered a growth of 13.6% in Dec'20 versus 4.6% in Nov'20.
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14-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI lower
WPI eased to a 4-month low of 1.2% in Dec’20 from 1.5% in Nov’20 led by moderation in food inflation to 0.9% in Dec’20.
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14-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 27bn and stood at Rs 27.9tn for the week ending 8 Jan 2021.
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13-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Recovery in India’s industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.
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12-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation ebbs, industrial activity slips
India’s recovery in industrial output hit a snag in Nov’20 as it fell by 1.9% following a 4.2% increase in Oct’20.
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12-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Recovery holding ground
India’s economic recovery continues to gain momentum.
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12-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.
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11-Jan-21
BOB Economics | RBI Financial Stability Report (FSR): RBI’s FSR points to higher NPAs
RBI’s FSR noted increase in GNPA of SCBs to 13.5% in base case and 14.8% under severe stress.
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11-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields inch up led by US
US 10Y yield inched up by 20bps in the week after Democratic party regained control of the Senate.
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11-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has again announced variable rate reverse repo auction on 15 Jan 2021 worth Rs 2tn to restore normal liquidity operation.
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08-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.
View Report
07-Jan-21
BOB Economics | FY21 GDP: Strong rebound on the cards
India’s GDP growth is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY21 (4.2% in FY20) led by 9.5% decline in consumption and 14.5% dip in investment spending.
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07-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI eased to 52.3 in Dec’20 (53.7 in Nov’20) with growth in new business and output softening.
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06-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 9.6% in FY21 before recovering to 5.4% in FY22 and 5.2% in FY23.
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05-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing activity continued to remain robust as visible in the PMI reading. It rose to 56.4 in Dec’20 compared with 56.3 in Nov’20.
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04-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Domestic recovery gains steam
Global equity indices ended CY20 on a high driven by news of Covid-19 vaccine, US stimulus deal and Brexit trade deal. DXY index fell to a 32-month low on concern over rising twin deficits.
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04-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.
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02-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Trade: Sharp acceleration in imports
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.7bn in Dec’20 from US$ 9.9bn in Nov’20 as imports bounced back by 7.6% (26-month high), led by gold imports.
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01-Jan-21
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s eight core index contracted by 2.6% in Nov’20 (3-month low) from 0.9% in Oct’20.
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31-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn in Q2FY21 (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1 (3.8% of GDP).
View Report
31-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: External position remains favourable
With revival in economic activity in Q2FY21, current account surplus narrowed to US$ 15.5bn (2.4% of GDP) from US$ 19.2bn in Q1.
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30-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s report on Trend and Progress of Banking stated that GNPA ratio of SCBs has declined to 7.5% as of Sep’20 from 8.2% as of Mar’20.
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29-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s recent working paper has pointed out that current 4% inflation target is appropriate in the medium-term.
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28-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Year ends with conclusive deals
The year ended with a Brexit deal and US President signing a US$ 900bn stimulus.
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28-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 2.6bn to a record high of US$ 581.1bn in the week ended 18 Dec 2020.
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24-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 329bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 18 Dec 2020.
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23-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India's crude oil production slipped to 2.49mn tonne in Nov'20 (4.9% drop) compared with 2.61mn tonne in Nov'19.
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22-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
EPFO’s payroll data for Oct’20 showed that net additions eased to 0.72mn from 1.11mn in Sep’20.
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21-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Market Outlook: Year of rollercoaster ride
2020 was one of the worst years for global economy but one of the best years for NASDAQ (5th highest since inception).
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21-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-on sentiment improves
Global yields and equities rose on the back of US stimulus deal, launch of vaccine and US FOMC’s upward revision to growth and inflation.
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21-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre has allowed 5 states to borrow additional Rs 167bn from the market as they have implemented the Ease of Doing Business reforms.
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18-Dec-20
BOB Economics | December MPC Minutes: Balancing growth and inflation
MPC members stated that growth has surprised positively.
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18-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre’s net direct tax collections improved in Q3FY21 as it fell by only 13% till 16 Dec 2020 versus 25% drop seen between Apr-Sep’20.
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17-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 116bn and stood at Rs 27.8tn for the week ending 11 Dec 2020.
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16-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Final print for India’s trade data shows that exports fell by 8.7% in Nov’20 compared with 9.1% drop estimated in preliminary estimates and 5.1% decline in Oct’20.
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15-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).
View Report
14-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Inflation: Food inflation moderates, core persists
CPI eased to a 3-month low of 6.9% in Nov’20 (7.6% in Oct’20) driven by lower food inflation at 9.4% (11% in Oct’20).
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14-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Core inflation drives WPI higher
WPI inched up to a 9-month high of 1.6% in Nov’20 from 1.5% in Oct’20 led by manufactured inflation which increased to 3% in Nov’20 (2.1% in Oct’20).
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14-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Inflation, RBI minutes in focus
10Y yield in UK and US declined due to uncertainty over Brexit and US stimulus.
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14-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per AMFI data, net inflow under mutual funds moderated to Rs 272bn in Nov’20 from Rs 986bn in Oct’20.
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11-Dec-20
BOB Economics | IIP: Broad based expansion in industrial activity
India’s industrial output surprised positively in Oct’20 at 3.6% from an increase of 0.5% in Sep’20.
View Report
11-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s Covid curve tapering off
India’s Covid-19 curve is showing signs of tapering off with 7-day average additions of 50k compared with a 30-day and 90-day average of 56k and 65k respectively.
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11-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre has recently released the 6th instalment of GST compensation cess of Rs 60bn thus taking the total transfer to states to Rs 360bn.
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10-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 26.5bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 4 Dec 2020.
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09-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moved up to 7.4% as on 8 Dec 2020 compared to 6.6% in the previous week.
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08-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Domestic LPG price (non-subsidised) has risen by Rs 50 to Rs 644/cylinder in Dec’20.
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07-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US 10Y moves closer to 1%
US 10Y yield increased by 13bps on the back of hope of US fiscal stimulus.
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07-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s data showed that credit demand was stable at 5.8% for the fortnight ending 20 Nov 2020.
View Report
04-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI revises its growth and inflation estimates
While revising GDP growth to (-) 7.5% from (-) 9.5% earlier, MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintain accommodative stance in the current and next financial year to support growth.
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04-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Services activity in India continued to expand as PMI reading was at 53.7 in Nov’20 from 54.1 in Oct’20.
View Report
03-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit expands as exports slip
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 10bn in Nov’20 from US$ 8.7bn in Oct’20 led by moderation in exports and stable non-oil-non-gold imports.
View Report
03-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports fell further in Nov’20 by 9.1% versus 5.1% drop in Oct’20. Oil exports fell much sharply by 63.8% (52% decline in Oct’20).
View Report
02-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI slipped to a 3-month low of 56.3 in Nov’20 from 58.9 in Oct’20.
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01-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to maintain status quo
US$ weakened by 0.7% in the week with positive development on vaccine.
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01-Dec-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The hike in petrol and diesel prices continued, with petrol prices up by Rs 1.28/lt and diesel prices by Rs 1.96/lt since 19 Nov 2020.
View Report
27-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Q2FY21 GDP: GDP throws a positive surprise
From a decline of 23.9% in Q1, India’s GDP contracted by 7.5% in Q2FY21.
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27-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI governor in his recent address highlighted that the sustainability of demand post festive season is to be carefully watched, as downside risks to growth still persist.
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26-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) fell by Rs 69bn and stood at Rs 27.7tn for the week ending 20 Nov 2020.
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25-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
High-frequency data for India shows that post festival demand, there is marginal easing in trading activity observed.
View Report
24-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, unemployment rate (30-day moving average) moderated to 6.4% as on 23 Nov 2020 against 6.7% in the previous week.
View Report
23-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on India’s Q2 GDP print
Rising global Covid-19 cases (4.2mn) drove global 10Y yields lower.
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23-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s data showed that credit demand picked up to 5.7% for the fortnight ending 6 Nov 2020 compared with 5.1% in Oct’20.
View Report
20-Nov-20
BOB Economics | GDP Update: India on recovery path
High frequency indicators show an underlying revival in economic activity led by private sector.
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20-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Domestic trade activity in India continues to rise steadily as visible in rail freight movement which rose by 13.6% during 1-10 Nov 2020.
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19-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government has received Rs 724.8bn from 45,855 cases under the tax dispute resolution scheme ‘Vivad se Vishwas’.
View Report
18-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s data showed that state borrowings in FYTD21 are up by 49% compared with last year and stood at Rs 4.48tn as of 17 Nov 2020.
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17-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equities surge higher on vaccine hopes
Global recovery strengthened further as seen in China’s industrial production and Japan’s Q3 GDP.
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17-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has signed an agreement with World Bank for providing advisory services on asset monetization.
View Report
16-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Core drives WPI higher, food moderates
WPI rose to 1.5% in Oct’20 (1.3% in Sep’20) led by core which increased to 1.7% in Oct’20 from 1% in Sep’20.
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13-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.
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12-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Government Stimulus: Stimulus to boost growth
Fiscal stimulus under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 package is pegged at Rs 2.65tn.
View Report
12-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Growth improves; inflation firms up
Industrial production rebounded sharply to 0.2% in Sep’20 from a decline of 7.4% in Aug’20 with improvement across sectors.
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12-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to boost manufacturing, government has approved Production Linked Incentives (PLI) for 10 sectors including white goods, auto and battery manufacturing.
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11-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Noting a robust turnaround, India’s exports are estimated to have increased by 22.5% on a YoY basis in the period 1-7 Nov 2020 following a decline of 5.4% in Oct’20.
View Report
10-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, cargo traffic in India’s 12 major ports fell for the 7th straight month by 1.2% in Oct'20 from a decline of 1.9% in Sep'20.
View Report
09-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gains traction
India’s economic recovery gained steam as seen in improvement in GST collections, electicity demand, vehicle sales, freight movement and PMIs.
View Report
09-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets rejoice US election results
Global equity markets surged as results of US Presidential elections indicated a change in guard.
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09-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s fortnightly statistics showed that credit demand edged down to 5.1% as of 23 Oct 2020 from 5.7% in the previous fortnight.
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06-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI announced the new Co-Lending Model (CML) to improve credit flow to the underserved section of the economy at an affordable cost.
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05-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI expanded for the first time in over eight months to 54.1 in Oct’20 from 49.8 in Sep’20.
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04-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and Rate Outlook: Rates seem to have bottomed out
Forward guidance by global central banks implies low yields and negative real global yields in the medium-term.
View Report
04-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports fell by 5.4% in Oct’20 from an increase of 6% in Sep’20 as per preliminary data.
View Report
03-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Domestic demand improves in Oct’20
India’s trade deficit expanded to a 7-month high of US$ 8.8bn in Oct’20 from US$ 2.7bn in Sep’20 led by higher gold and non-oil-non-gold imports.
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03-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI accelerated for the 3rd straight month to a 13-year high of 58.9 in Oct’20 from 56.8 in Sep’20.
View Report
02-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: PMIs, US Fed and US elections
Global equity markets and yields fell on the back of rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and US.
View Report
02-Nov-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Sep’20 rose by 10.2% on YoY basis to Rs 1tn from Rs 955bn in Aug’20 (3.9% increase).
View Report
29-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 81bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 23 Oct 2020.
View Report
28-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s study on state budgets indicates that while states had projected fiscal deficit for FY21 at 2.8% (of GSDP), it is expected at 4.6% instead.
View Report
27-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Government of India is expected to announce another round of fiscal stimulus around the festive season.
View Report
26-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI’s bond purchases drive yields lower
Despite rising Covid-19 cases in Europe, US and UK yields inched up on the back of impending stimulus in US and Brexit deal.
View Report
26-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to meet the GST compensation cess gap, GoI has transferred Rs 60bn to 16 states under the 1st tranche of Rs 1.1tn payment to be made.
View Report
23-Oct-20
BOB Economics | October MPC Minutes: Emphasis on forward guidance
MPC members favoured forward guidance on accommodative conditions to anchor market expectations of liquidity.
View Report
23-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to CMIE data, rural unemployment rose to 7.93% in the week ending 4 Oct 2020, compared with only 4.73% in the previous week.
View Report
22-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 47bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 16 Oct 2020.
View Report
21-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to EPFO’s data, it added 0.67mn new subscribers to its subscriber base in Aug’20 compared with 0.65mn added in Jul’20.
View Report
20-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As part of Atma Nirbhar Bharat package, GoI has proposed to cover 25mn farmers under the Kisan Credit Card scheme with a credit boost of Rs 2tn through the saturation drive.
View Report
19-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India decides to borrow more
Fresh restrictions in Europe to curb COVID-19, uncertainty around US fiscal stimulus, drop in Germany’s ZEW sentiment index and higher US jobless claims led to risk-off driving global yields and equities lower and US$ higher.
View Report
19-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s rail freight data shows continued improvement in domestic trade activity in Oct’20 so far.
View Report
16-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre has increased its borrowing program for FY21 as it has decided to borrow Rs 1.1tn on behalf of states to meet the GST compensation cess shortfall.
View Report
15-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 21bn and stood at Rs 27tn for the week ending 9 Oct 2020.
View Report
14-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI higher
WPI rose to 1.3% in Sep’20 from 0.2% in Aug’20 led by increase in food (6.9% in Sep’20 from 4.1% in Aug’20) and manufactured inflation (1.6% in Sep’20 from 1.3% Aug’20).
View Report
14-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF expects India’s GDP to contract by 10.3% compared with a 4.5% dip estimated earlier.
View Report
13-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has announced a slew of measures like LTC cash voucher, restoring the festival advance scheme for central and state government employees in order to boost demand in the economy.
View Report
12-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation remains uncomfortably high, IIP improves
India’s industrial recovery continued with a decline of 8% in Aug’20 as against 10.8%.
View Report
12-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI’s moves drive Indian yields lower
Global yields and equities went up with hopes of fresh US fiscal stimulus gaining ground.
View Report
12-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
MPC members unanimously voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and maintain the accommodative stance into the current and next financial year.
View Report
09-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Green shoots emerging
A silver lining seems to be emerging with positive growth visible in exports, auto and electricity output, rural wages, GST collections and rail freight.
View Report
09-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Lender of last resort
MPC members unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged.
View Report
09-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank has slashed India’s growth forecast for FY21, estimating a contraction of 9.6% versus 4.5% decline estimated in Jun’20.
View Report
08-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 29bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 2 Oct 2020.
View Report
07-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI improved substantially to 49.8 in Sep’20 from 41.8 in Aug’20.
View Report
06-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India has appointed 3 external members to the Monetary Policy Committee of RBI.
View Report
05-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Uphill climb for global recovery
Global manufacturing PMIs and US consumer confidence supported higher global yields.
View Report
05-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Aug’20 jumped by 3.9% on YoY basis to Rs 955bn from Rs 864bn in Jul’20 (12% decline).
View Report
03-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports gain traction
India’s trade deficit fell to US$ 2.9bn in Sep’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 as exports rose by 5.3%, first time in 6-months.
View Report
01-Oct-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s eight core output contracted for the 6th straight month to 8.5% in Aug’20 from 8% in Jul’20.
View Report
30-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Centre sticks to its borrowing calendar
Centre has maintained its borrowing plan of Rs 12tn implying gross and net borrowing of Rs 4.25tn and Rs 3.37tn in H2.
View Report
30-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Current account surplus expands
After reporting a current account surplus of US$ 0.6bn in Q4, India reported a surplus of US$ 19.8bn (3.9% of GDP) in Q1FY21 as imports fell more sharply than exports.
View Report
30-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to provide liquidity to States, RBI has decided to continue with the increased WMA limit (of 60%) till Mar’21 from Sep’20 earlier.
View Report
29-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to boost SCBs liquidity, RBI has extended the MSF relaxation till 31 Mar 2021 from 30 Sep 2020 earlier.
View Report
28-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to maintain status quo
Global equities fell and DXY regained strength with European governments imposing fresh restrictions to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
View Report
28-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
S&P retained India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade at BBB- with stable outlook.
View Report
25-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As announced under the Atama Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, centre has increased the borrowing limits of 5 states (A.P, Telangana, Karnataka, Goa and Tripura) by 0.5% of their GSDP as they have implemented the ‘One Nation One Ration Card’ card scheme.
View Report
24-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 58bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 18 Sep 2020.
View Report
23-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to the first advance estimates, total food grain production in the country during the kharif season is estimated at 144.5mn ton, on the back of normal monsoon.
View Report
22-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has hiked the MSP for Rabi crops for the marketing season (2021-2022) in line with the recommendations of Swaminathan Commission.
View Report
21-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Central Banks on hold, India expands fisc support
Major central banks kept the policy rates on hold with US Fed likely to keep ultra-low rates till 2023.
View Report
21-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves fell by US$ 353mn in the week ended 11 Sep 2020 to US$ 541.7bn.
View Report
18-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Lok Sabha passed the Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) and Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill.
View Report
17-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, centre’s direct tax collections are down by ~22.4% in H1FY21 so far (15 Sep 2020) and stand at Rs 2.54tn compared with Rs 3.27tn in the same period last year.
View Report
16-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.
View Report
15-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit expands on higher gold imports
India’s trade deficit widened to US$ 6.8bn in Aug’20 from US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 led by higher gold imports.
View Report
15-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ADB expects India’s GDP to contract by 9% in FY21 versus 4% decline estimated earlier.
View Report
14-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Inflation: Food inflation moderates, core persists
CPI eased to 6.7% in Aug’20 driven by lower food inflation at 9.1%.
View Report
14-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation turns positive
WPI rose to 0.2% in Aug’20 after declining for 4 straight months (0.6% in Jul’20) led by increase in manufactured inflation.
View Report
14-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns
Global recovery gained steam led by higher exports by China and Taiwan.
View Report
14-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI purchased a record US$ 16bn in Jul20 (net) in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20.
View Report
11-Sep-20
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP improves further
India’s industrial output declined by 10.4% in Jul’20 as against a decline of 15.8% in Jun’20.
View Report
11-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has constituted a three-member expert committee for assessment of relief to bank borrowers.
View Report
10-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government has released Rs 103bn to developers, for expediting infrastructure projects amidst COVID-19.
View Report
09-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is planning to sell about 15-20% of its stake in IRCTC in FY21 through OFS route in tranches.
View Report
08-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gathers steam
India’s manufacturing PMI moved into expansion zone, in-line with other large economies.
View Report
08-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has released the KV Kamath Committee report on resolution framework for COVID-19 related stress.
View Report
07-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian yields fall after RBI acts
Chinese yields rose as domestic economic activity continues to show improvement.
View Report
07-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Andhra Pradesh retained the top position in the state wise ease of doing business rankings, followed by UP and Telengana.
View Report
04-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI improved in Aug’20 to 41.8 from 34.2 in Jul’20.
View Report
03-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 79bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 28 Aug 2020.
View Report
02-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections eased to Rs 864bn from Rs 874bn in Jun’20, registering a 12% YoY decline.
View Report
01-Sep-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre’s fiscal deficit continues to remain elevated as revenue receipts are in free fall while spending is maintained.
View Report
31-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Q1FY21GDP: Investment and consumption drive record fall in GDP
India’s GDP growth in Q1FY21 contracted by 23.9%.
View Report
31-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India’s GDP and fiscal health in focus
Global 10Y yields went up as macro data showed further improvement in economic activity: China’s industrial profits, US durable goods and new home sales.
View Report
31-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per RBI data, credit demand edged down to 5.5% for the fortnight ending 14 Aug 2020 against 5.7% in Jul’20.
View Report
28-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In the GST council meet the FM informed the states that centre will not able to meet the full demand of GST compensation in FY21.
View Report
27-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 33.8bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ending 21 Aug 2020.
View Report
26-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.
View Report
25-Aug-20
BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: RBI expects gradual recovery
RBI’s balance sheet expanded by 30% in FY20 to Rs 53tn led by FX intervention, higher gold prices and OMOs.
View Report
25-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to Ministry of Finance, post the implementation of GST, tax compliance has improved and average tax rate has been reduced for the system.
View Report
24-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields dip, Indian yields rise
Global yields (ex-India and China) fell after macro data showed global recovery flattening, in particular in Eurozone.
View Report
24-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves declined by US$ 2.9bn in the week ended 14 Aug 2020 to US$ 535.3bn.
View Report
21-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
MPC members noted future growth trajectory remains uncertain.
View Report
20-Aug-20
BOB Economics | August MPC Minutes: Rate cut cycle may be behind us
While India’s growth seems to have bottomed out in Q1FY21, growth trajectory still remains uncertain.
View Report
20-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 56bn and stood at Rs 26.9tn for the week ending 14 Aug 2020.
View Report
19-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government has received proposals worth Rs 12tn for the next five years under Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
View Report
18-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to provide greater funding to NBFCs, government has decided to expand the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) 2.0 by another three months till 19 Nov’20.
View Report
17-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields rise as recovery continues
Worst seems to be over for global economy with Euro Area, Singapore and UK reporting sharp contraction for Q2CY20.
View Report
17-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI approved a transfer of Rs 571.3bn for the accounting year 2019-20 to the government, while maintaining the contingency risk buffer at 5.5%.
View Report
14-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Imports catching up, non-oil exports improve
India’s trade balance slipped into deficit of US$ 4.8bn in Jul’20 from a surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20.
View Report
14-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, food inflation soars
WPI contracted by 0.6% in Jul’20 from 1.8% in Jun’20 led by 4.3% increase in food and 0.5% increase in manufactured inflation.
View Report
14-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI purchased net US$ 9.8bn in Jun’20 in the spot market versus net purchase of US$ 4.4bn in May’20.
View Report
13-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Inflation: Accelerating inflation, RBI to maintain status quo
CPI inflation accelerated to 6.9% in Jul’20 (6.2% in Jun’20) led by higher food and core inflation.
View Report
13-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 136.2bn and stood at Rs 26.8tn for the week ended 7 Aug 2020.
View Report
12-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s auto sales showed improvement as the pace of contraction eased significantly in Jul’20 to 18.6% from 43% in Jun’20.
View Report
11-Aug-20
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP showing signs of recovery
India’s industrial output declined by 16.6% in Jun’20 as against a decline of 33.9% in May’20.
View Report
11-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India to recover with a lag
While global economy is showing signs of expansion with manufacturing and services PMIs above 50, India’s PMIs have decelerated owing to local lockdowns in Jul’20.
View Report
11-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per CMIE data, India’s unemployment rate for the week ending 9 Aug 2020 rose considerably to 8.7% from 7.2% in the previous week.
View Report
10-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global recovery continues
Global yields rose with macro data surprising positively.
View Report
10-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government of India recently launched the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund worth Rs 1tn to provide support to FPOs, PACs and farmers so as to build community farming assets and post-harvest infrastructure.
View Report
07-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.
View Report
06-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI allows restructuring while holding rates
MPC unanimously voted to keep policy rate unchanged and maintained accommodative stance.
View Report
06-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services activity still remained muted with PMI print at 34.2 in Jul’20 against 33.7 in Jun’20; remaining far below the 50-mark.
View Report
05-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per FCI, a total of 75.9mn MT of foodgrain stock is available; of this 9.5mn MT is required each month under NFSA, PMGKAY and other schemes.
View Report
04-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the 4th straight month to 46 in Jul’20 from 47.2 in Jun’20.
View Report
03-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI decision to guide markets
US yields and US$ fell in the week after a steep contraction in US GDP, falling consumer confidence and Fed’s prediction of weak economic recovery.
View Report
03-Aug-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
GST collections for Jun’20 was recorded at Rs 874bn, down from Rs 909bn for May’20.
View Report
31-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce the dependency on inbound shipments of non-essential items in India, government has imposed restrictions on imports of colour televisions.
View Report
30-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 48bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 24 Jul 2020.
View Report
29-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, railway freight reported its first YoY increase (0.3%) in FY21 on 27 Jul 2020.
View Report
28-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, cabinet has given approval for disinvestment in 22-23 PSUs to meet FY21 target of Rs 2.1tn.
View Report
27-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on Fed
Global economy maintained growth momentum as seen in US home sales and higher flash PMIs.
View Report
27-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s FSR indicated that financial conditions of SCBs have worsened with respect to soundness, liquidity and efficiency parameters in Mar’20 against Sep’19.
View Report
24-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In yet another sign of revival, India’s crude oil processing rose by 10.9% in Jun’20 to 4.29mbpd against 3.87mbpd in May’20.
View Report
23-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 20bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 17 Jul 2020.
View Report
22-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, number of registered companies in the country stands at 2mn as of 30 Jun 2020.
View Report
21-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Pace of contraction in India’s port cargo volumes reduced in Jun’20 to 14.5% from 23.3% in May’20.
View Report
20-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to focus on growth as inflation surprises negatively
China continues to lead global recovery with GDP growth rebounding to 3.2% in Q2CY20 from a decline of 6.8% in Q1.
View Report
20-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s fortnightly data indicates credit growth eased further to 6.1 % as of 3 Jul 2020 from 6.2% in the previous fortnight and 12% in the same period last year.
View Report
17-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, banks have sanctioned Rs 1.23tn of the Rs 3tn Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for MSMEs.
View Report
16-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 124.5bn and stood at Rs 26.7tn for the week ending 10 Jul 2020.
View Report
15-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover, imports falter
India registered a trade surplus of US$ 0.8bn in Jun’20, a first in 18-years versus a deficit of US$ 3.1bn in May’20 as exports recovered.
View Report
15-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s auto sales fell by 43% in Jun’20 versus a decline of 84.8% in May’20.
View Report
14-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, but at a slower pace
WPI contracted by 1.8% in Jun’20 from 3.2% in May’20 led by 13.6% decline in fuel and power index in Jun’20 compared with 19.8% in May’20.
View Report
14-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
NSO released India’s CPI data for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20.
View Report
13-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Inflation: CPI surprises negatively led by core
NSO released CPI inflation for Apr’20 and May’20 along with Jun’20 data.
View Report
13-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global macros improving despite rising cases
Global equity markets continued upward momentum led by China as economic activity rebounds.
View Report
13-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 versus a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.
View Report
10-Jul-20
BOB Economics | IIP: First signs of recovery
India’s industrial output declined by 34.7% in May’20 as against a decline of 57.6% in Apr’20.
View Report
10-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, central government is planning a stake sale in Coal India and IDBI bank to raise nearly Rs 200bn in disinvestment proceeds.
View Report
09-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 49.5bn and stood at Rs 26.6tn for the week ending 3 Jul 2020.
View Report
08-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, CPSEs have been tasked by the FM to ensure that 50% of their budgeted capital outlay (Rs 1.66tn) is spent by Q2FY21.
View Report
07-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, central government has extended the 15% spending limit for various departments to Q2FY21 as well.
View Report
06-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Consumption reviving, capex to recover in FY22
India’s economy improved further in Jun’20 as visible in higher filing of GST e-way bills, digital payments, tractor sales and manufacturing PMIs.
View Report
06-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Economic recovery continues despite COVID
Early signs of global recovery are visible with improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs and strong US jobs report.
View Report
06-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 1.3bn in the week ended 26 Jun 2020 compared with a decline of US$ 2.1bn last week.
View Report
03-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, under government’s Atmanirbhar package, banks have sanctioned Rs 629bn to over 7mn Kisan Credit Card (KCC) holders as on Jun’20.
View Report
02-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Latest GST collections and manufacturing PMI indicate that economy is on the path of recovery in May/Jun’20.
View Report
01-Jul-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government tax revenues continue to remain weak as direct tax collections fell by 14.6% in FYTD21 (Apr-May) versus 12.1% rise in the same period last year.
View Report
30-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Balance of payments: Current account turns surplus
After a span of 13 years, India reported a current account surplus.
View Report
30-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In view of the current liquidity scenario, RBI has again decided to conduct simultaneous purchase of longer dated securities and sell shorter duration ones, of Rs 100bn each.
View Report
29-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: COVID spike worries markets
Despite global economy gaining positive momentum in the form of improvement in consumer confidence and US home sales, equity markets and yields fell as markets were worried about resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
View Report
26-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: RBI and Banks to finance fiscal deficit
Indian yields have fallen in-line with global yields even as general government issuances are estimated to increase to ~9.5% of GDP.
View Report
26-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to provide a helping hand to non-MSMEs, government is considering a one-time loan restructuring facility especially for those businesses which have been severely hit by the pandemic.
View Report
25-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, led by steep hike in excise duty on petrol and diesel and pick-up in demand, centre’s excise collections have risen to ~Rs 400bn in FYTD21 (Apr-May).
View Report
24-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per World Bank data, India has retained its position as the third largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
View Report
23-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Moody’s has cut India’s growth projection in FY21 and expects GDP to contract by 3.1% against 0.2% estimated earlier.
View Report
22-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets and oil prices resist rising COVID cases
Global short-end yields (apart from Germany) were lower as IMF cautioned of sharper downturn and COVID-19 cases increased.
View Report
22-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has launched Garib Kalyan Rojgaar Abhiyaan to generate employment for migrant workers.
View Report
19-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Outlook on India’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been revised to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ by Fitch ratings, while maintaining rating at ‘BBB-’.
View Report
18-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI as the regulator of HFC’s has proposed certain changes such as providing a formal definition of housing finance (not available under NHB).
View Report
17-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, direct tax collections in Apr-Jun’20 have fallen by 32.8% so far to Rs 927bn versus Rs 1.38tn last year.
View Report
16-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.
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15-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Exports recover faster than imports
India’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to US$ 3.2bn in May’20 from US$ 6.8bn in Apr’20.
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15-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Lower fuel prices drives sharp reduction in WPI inflation
Headline WPI fell by 3.2% in May’20 led by 19.8% drop in fuel inflation.
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15-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives markets lower
Global yields closed lower after US FOMC painted a dismal picture of recovery for the US economy in CY20.
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15-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose by US$ 8.2bn to a record-high at US$ 501.7bn in the week ended 5 Jun 2020 compared with an increase of US$ 3.4bn last week.
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12-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Food inflation falls, industrial output contracts sharply
India’s industrial production contracted by 55.5% in Apr’20 on the back of a nationwide lockdown led by 95.7% and 92% reduction in consumer durables and capital goods respectively.
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12-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI sold net US$ 1.1bn in the spot market in Apr’20 compared with US$ 4.1bn sales in Mar’20.
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11-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
OECD in its latest economic outlook has projected India’s GDP to contract sharply by 3.7% in FY21.
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10-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, GST collections have steadily declined in Mar and Apr’20, showing the impact of nationwide lockdown.
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09-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank expects India’s GDP growth to contract by 3.2% in FY21 as lockdown measures to curtail COVID-19 derail economic activity.
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08-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Recovery has begun, normalcy will take time
India’s economy is showing signs of recovery with E-way bills and electricity demand showing signs of improvement from Apr’20 levels.
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08-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Equity markets gain as global economies recover
Global economic activity showed signs of improvement with PMIs gaining MoM traction led by China and US.
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08-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI has announced establishment of Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF).
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05-Jun-20
BOB Economics | May MPC Minutes: Room for another 25bps rate cut
MPC members reduced policy rate by 40bps as the impact of COVID-19 on the domestic economy is far more severe than initially anticipated.
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05-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government has released Rs 364bn as GST compensation for states for Dec’19-Feb’20.
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04-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services activity still contracted as visible in the PMI print.
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03-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to support Make in India initiative, India has launched US$ 6.65bn plan to boost electronic manufacturing.
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02-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades India
Moody’s downgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with negative outlook on the back of rising fiscal deficits, growth contraction and higher debt levels (30% more than Baa median).
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02-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Moody’s has downgraded India’s sovereign rating to its lowest investment grade for the first time in 22 years.
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01-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Led by nationwide lockdown to curtail the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, India’s infrastructure index contracted to a record low of 38.1% in Apr’20 from a decline of 9% in Mar’20.
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01-Jun-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Better macro prints supported markets
Global macro data showed some improvement with US home sales and EU consumer confidence surprising positively.
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30-May-20
BOB Economics | Fiscal update: FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP
India’s FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP is higher than FY20RE of 3.8%.
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29-May-20
BOB Economics | Q4FY20 GDP: FY20 GDP growth drops; Q4 surprises positively
India’s FY20 growth slipped to 4.2% from 6.1% due to lower consumption and investment demand.
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29-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI inflows into India rose by 18% to US$ 73.5bn in FY20 versus US$ 62bn in FY19.
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28-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 221bn and stood at Rs 26.1tn for the week ending 22 May 2020.
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27-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
CBIC has announced that between 8 Apr-24 May 2020, Rs 110.5bn worth GST refunds have been processed.
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26-May-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global data shows world economy improving
Global economy is showing signs of pick-up with flash PMIs showing MoM improvement.
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26-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, direct tax collections in FYTD21 (till 23 May) eased to Rs 916.5bn compared with Rs 1.1tn in the same period last year.
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22-May-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI cuts rates, extends measures to ease financial stress
MPC announced another 40bps reduction in policy rate to 4%.
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22-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government has sanctioned Rs 920.8bn for transfers to states for Apr-May'20.
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21-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 193.6bn and stood at Rs 25.9tn for the week ended 15 May 2020.
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20-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports are expected to fall by 20% in FY21 (decline of 4.3% in FY20) as per estimates by FIEO.
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19-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
NABARD has disbursed Rs 205bn to cooperative banks and RRBs.
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18-May-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: China expands; US, Europe and India yet to see recovery
US yields closed lower due to poor economic data (retail sales, jobless claims, Fed Chair comments).
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18-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In the last tranche of the fiscal package, the FM announced a 2% rise in state borrowings.
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17-May-20
BOB Economics | Government Stimulus Measures: PSE privatisation, state borrowing raised by 2% of GDP
The FM today announced a 2% increase in states borrowing by Rs 4.28tn to Rs 10.69tn.
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16-May-20
BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Ushering in private investments
The FM today announced measures to 1) Fast Track investments, 2) Open up coal and mining sector to private sector, 3) Privatisation of DISCOMs in UTs, and 4) Boost defence manufacturing and aviation sector.
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15-May-20
BOB Economics | Trade and Government Stimulus Measures: Exports plunge by 60.3%, FM announces agri stimulus
The FM today announced third tranche of 10% stimulus focused on agri sector.
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15-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The second stimulus was worth Rs 3.2tn, of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.
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14-May-20
BOB Economics | Government Stimulus Measures: Stimulus for farmers, real estate, migrants and vendors
The second stimulus is worth Rs 3.2tn out of which farmers have got benefit of Rs 2.3tn in the form of higher credit allocation.
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14-May-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI food and fuel inflation eases
The trend of food, fuel and available categories of manufactured products shows a decline in wholesale inflation.
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14-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As a part of Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package, FM has announced Rs 6tn boost for MSMEs, NBFCs and power sector.
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13-May-20
BOB Economics | Government stimulus measures: Aatmanirbhar package for MSMEs, NBFCs and Power
Honourable PM announced a big bang Rs 20tn Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan package to stimulate the economy and give impetus to local manufacturing.
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13-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has announced stimulus of Rs 20tn (10% of GDP) to combat the economic crisis.
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12-May-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Growth contracts, food inflation rises
Even with data capturing challenges, underlying trend of higher food prices and lower production (IIP contracted by 16.7%) has been captured.
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12-May-20
BOB Economics | FY21 GDP Update: Charting India’s growth trajectory
An estimated 73% of India’s economy is open now compared with 30% in Apr’20.
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12-May-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response
India’s growth bottomed out in Apr’20 with 70% of the economy in lockdown.
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12-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has released Rs 62bn to 14 States as second monthly instalment for revenue deficit grants.
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11-May-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India steps up borrowing for stimulus
Global yields steepened with US unemployment rate increasing to 14.7% and disappointing US factory and Germany’s exports data.
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11-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.
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08-May-20
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government alters H1 borrowing calendar
Central government has revised its borrowing to Rs 12tn in FY21 from Rs 7.8tn earlier.
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08-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 122bn and stood at Rs 25.3tn for the week ending 1 May 2020.
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06-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 2) & Rs 13 (additional excise duty: Rs 8+ SAD: Rs 5) respectively.
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05-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI reading fell sharply to 27.4 in Apr’20 compared with 51.8 in Mar’20.
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04-May-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Central Banks extend support as data disappoints
Oil prices rose and DXY fell as global risk sentiment improved.
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04-May-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, total GST collections for Mar’20 fell to Rs 283bn versus Rs 976bn in Feb’20 and Rs 1.13tn in Mar’19.
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30-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 166.6bn and stood at Rs 25.2tn for the week ending 24 Apr 2020.
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29-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ADB has announced an assistance package of US$ 1.5bn for India in order to counter the effects of COVID-19 on health, welfare and overall economy.
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28-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3.1mn as of 27 Apr 2020 versus 2.5mn last week.
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27-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Fed, ECB meet in focus
The week saw negative oil prices, a first as global supply outran storage due to demand compression.
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27-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 3mn as of 26 Apr 2020, yet the pace of increase is declining. On a daily basis, new cases in US rose the most by 26,730, followed by Spain at 2,870 and Italy at 2,324.
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24-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government has decided to amend the insolvency law and suspend sections 7, 9 and 10 for 6 months-1 year.
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23-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 196.3bn and stood at Rs 25tn for the week ending 17 Apr 2020.
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22-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is likely to announce another stimulus package amounting to Rs 6-8tn (3-4% of GDP).
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21-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.5mn as of 20 Apr 2020.
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20-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Oil falls, equities recover
Global equity markets closed higher on the hope of successful treatment to Covid-19 to hit the markets soon enough.
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20-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.4mn as of 19 Apr 2020.
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17-Apr-20
BOB Economics | RBI Measures: RBI strikes again
Following up on measures announced on 27 March, RBI today announced 1) 25bps reduction in reverse repo rate, 2) TLTRO of Rs 500bn for NBFCs, 3) Higher WMA limits for states, 4) Standstill on asset classification norms, and 5) Scope for further reduction in policy rates.
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17-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2.2mn as of 16 Apr 2020.
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16-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s exports fell steeply in Mar’20 by 34.6% versus an increase of 2.9% in Feb’20.
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15-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade contraction shows impact of lockdown
India’s trade deficit remained steady at US$ 9.8bn in Mar’20 on a MoM basis.
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15-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI slips
WPI inflation moderated to a 4-month low of 1% in Mar’20 from 2.3% in Feb’20.
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15-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 2mn as of 14 Apr 2020. However the pace of increase is slowing with daily fresh cases rising by only 4% this week vs an average increase of 8% last week.
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13-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Inflation: Inflation falls, will ease further
CPI moderated to a 4-month low of 5.9% in Mar’20 led by food inflation.
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13-Apr-20
BOB Economics | MPC Minutes: Growth concerns warranted a larger cut
MPC members voted unanimously to cut rates and keep an accommodative stance.
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13-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets hopeful of a flattening COVID curve
Globally risk sentiment improved with new projections showing US deaths may be lower than worst case scenario anticipated earlier.
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13-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.8mn as of 12 Apr 2020 (1.04 times increase vs last week).
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09-Apr-20
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial growth rebounds in Feb, will slip in March
Industrial growth rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in Feb’20 from 2.1% in Jan’20.
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09-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: A few more weeks before visibility improves
With 70% of economy in a lockdown, we see sharp reduction in domestic consumption and investment demand.
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09-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.5mn as of 8 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).
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08-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.4mn as of 7 Apr 2020 (1.3 times increase vs last week).
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07-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets rejoice fewer virus cases
World added fewer cases of COVID-19 in the last few days which resulted in a rebound in equity markets.
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07-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.3mn as of 6 Apr 2020 (1.2 times increase vs last week).
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03-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 1.02mn as of 2 Apr 2020 (1.8 times increase vs last week).
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01-Apr-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 856,581 as of 31 Mar 2020 (2.1 times increase vs last week).
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31-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Government sticks to borrowing calendar
Centre’s H1FY21 gross borrowing is pegged at Rs 4.88tn in H1FY21 compared with Rs 4.25tn in H1FY20.
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31-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 7,84,395 as of 30 Mar 2020 (2.2 times increase vs last week).
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30-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Early indicators point to sharp dip in growth
Global markets responded positively to US fiscal stimulus.
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30-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 703,700 as of 29 Mar 2020 (2.3 times increase vs last week).
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27-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI takes a bold move, more to follow
With 70% of economy in lockdown, MPC members reduced repo and reverse repo rate by 75bps and 90bps respectively.
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27-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases increased globally to 514,999 as of 26 Mar 2020 (3.4 times increase vs last week).
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26-Mar-20
BOB Economics | COVID-19 Impact: Pandemic to stunt global growth, delay India’s recovery
With complete lockdown, ~70% of economic activity — investment, exports and discretionary consumption — has come to a halt.
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26-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and have risen to 462,346 as of 26 Mar 2020 (2.8 times increase vs last week).
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24-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally and rose 3.5 times to 368,227 for the week ended 23 Mar 2020.
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23-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: COVID-19 cases jump, so does volatility
A 3 times increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases to 152,366, drove Dow down by 17.1%.
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23-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
COVID-19 cases continued to increase globally. For the week ended 22 Mar 2020, number of COVID-19 globally increased 2 times to 318,297.
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20-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Ministry of Finance is considering a Rs 100-200bn stimulus package to support the aviation sector.
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19-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.
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19-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 258.2bn and stood at Rs 23.9tn for the week ending 13 Mar 2020.
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18-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Centre’s direct tax collections on FYTD basis reached Rs 8.6tn as of Feb’20 vs FY20RE of Rs 11.7tn.
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17-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to boost durable liquidity to combat the impact of COVID-19, RBI has announced that it will conduct LTROs in multiple tranches at policy rate, amounting to Rs 1tn.
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16-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI eases
WPI inflation edged down to 2.3% in Feb’20 from 3.1% in Jan’20 led by food inflation (7.8% in Feb’20 vs 11.5% in Jan’20).
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16-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI likely to ease by 50bps
In a surprise move, US Fed reduced policy rate by 1% and announced US$ 700bn of bond purchases.
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16-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
GST council has hiked rates on mobile phones to 18% from 12%, in order to correct the inverted duty structure.
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13-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit narrows
India’s trade deficit narrowed to US$ 9.9bn in Feb’20 from US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 as oil, electronic and capital goods imports came-off on MoM basis.
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13-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
CPI inflation in India edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.
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12-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Favourable outlook on CAD
India’s CAD fell to US$ 1.4bn (0.2% of GDP) in Q3FY20 from US$ 6.5bn in Q2FY20 (0.9% of GDP) on the back of lower trade deficit.
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12-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation falls, growth rebounds
CPI inflation edged down to 6.6% in Feb’20 (7.6% in Jan’20) led by moderation in prices of vegetables and fruits.
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12-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI’s rate cut to support growth
While domestic manufacturing and services sector PMIs have risen to 8-year and 7-year highs respectively, global PMIs have shrunk led by China.
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12-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI bought net US$ 10.3bn in Jan’20 in the spot market (highest in 5 years) vs US$ 4.4bn in Dec’19.
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11-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government may bring down the tax rate on dividend income for domestic investors from 43% to 20% in the highest tax bracket.
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09-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US yields at all-time low
Global yields fell as markets assess economic impact of COVID-19.
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09-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The government has sought parliament approval for an additional spending of Rs 540bn in FY20.
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06-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
EPFO has cut interest rate by 15bps to its 7-year low of 8.5% in FY20.
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05-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI rose to 57.5 in Feb’20 from 55.5 in Jan’20.
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04-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FDI inflows into India rose to US$ 10.7bn in Q3FY20 vs US$ 9.8bn in Q2FY20.
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03-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 54.5 in Feb’20 from 55.3 in Jan’20.
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02-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets jittery as virus spreads
Global markets fell as COVID-19 outbreak spread beyond China to Italy, South Korea and Middle East.
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02-Mar-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s central government fiscal deficit is at 4.3% of GDP (12M trailing basis) in Jan’20 vs FY20 (RE) of 3.8%.
View Report
28-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Q3FY20 GDP: Growth to recover in FY21
India’s GDP and GVA growth moderated to 4.7% and 4.5% in Q3FY20 from a revised growth of 5.1% and 4.9% in Q2.
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28-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, EPFO is considering a 15bps cut in deposit rate to 8.5% for FY20 vs 8.65% in FY19.
View Report
27-Feb-20
BOB Economics | India's Road to Recovery: Stage set for growth rebound
India’s economic slowdown is likely to bottom out in FY20 – we expect growth to tick up to 5.5% in FY21 and 6.2% in FY22 spurred by infrastructure spends, funded by strategic sale and divestment of CPSEs.
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27-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) rose by Rs 110bn and stood at Rs 23.6tn for the week ending 21 Feb 2020.
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26-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to NSO report, ESIC added 1.3mn persons as new subscribers in Dec’19 vs 1.5mn persons in Nov’19.
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25-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, Ministry of Finance is not in favour of postponing the payment of AGR dues of telecom companies beyond the deadline.
View Report
24-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global monetary loosening on the cards
Economic data of Japan, China, Eurozone, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand shows flagging demand due to impact of COVID-19 or tax hike in Japan.
View Report
24-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 92bn and stood at Rs 23.5tn for the week ending 14 Feb 2020.
View Report
20-Feb-20
BOB Economics | February MPC Minutes: Policy space to open in Q3FY21
MPC members noted that economic activity has slowed down since the last policy.
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20-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to 2nd advance estimates, India is expected to clock a record foodgrain production which is 2.4% (291.95mn tonne in AY20) higher than last year.
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18-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has suggested changes to incentivise Vivaad se Vishwas scheme to resolve pending tax disputes worth Rs 9.32tn.
View Report
17-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Fed, RBI minutes expected to be dovish
While US macro data was mixed, Euro Area’s Q4 GDP growth was at a 7-year low as German economy stagnated and France and Italy’s contracted.
View Report
17-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s export growth in Jan’20 fell to 4-month low of (-) 1.7% vs (-) 1.6% in Dec’19, led by sharp fall in exports of gems & jewellery, agriculture items and engineering goods.
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14-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit expands as oil imports increase
India’s trade deficit expanded to US$ 15.2bn in Jan’20 from US$ 11.3bn as exports fell at a faster pace than imports.
View Report
14-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI edges up to 9-month high
WPI inflation inched up to 3.1% in Jan’20 from 2.6% in Dec’19 led by fuel & power inflation (3.4%) and manufactured inflation (0.3%).
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14-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to Ministry of Agriculture, India has clocked a record foodgrain production (final estimates) at 285.17mn tonnes in 2018-19 vs 285.01mn tonne in 2017-18.
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13-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s CPI jumped to 7.6% in Jan’20 from 7.4% in Dec’19 led by increase in pulses, protein and cereal inflation.
View Report
12-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Inflation moves up, growth lower
CPI inflation jumped to 7.6% in Jan’20 (7.4% in Dec’19) led by acceleration in pulses, protein and cereal inflation.
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12-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI bought net US$ 4.4bn in the spot market in Dec’19 vs US$ 6.9bn in Nov’19.
View Report
11-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Growth seems to have bottomed out
While government spending will be a drag on growth in Q4FY20 on the back of muted revenues, manufacturing and services sector PMI has risen to 8-year and 7-year high respectively.
View Report
11-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The slowdown in India’s auto sales continued in Jan’20 with passenger car sales declining by (-) 8.1% vs (-) 8.4% in Dec’19.
View Report
10-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI policy lifts sentiment
While global yields inched up in US and Euro Area, yields were lower in China and India on the back of measures by PBoC and RBI.
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10-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh historic high of US$ 471.3bn in the week ended 31 Jan 2020.
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07-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s MPC members kept policy rate and stance unchanged and reiterated room for further rate cuts.
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06-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI signals banks to lend
MPC members kept policy rate and stance unchanged and reiterated room for further rate cuts.
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06-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI rose to a 7-year high of 55.5 in Jan’20 from 53.3 in Dec’19.
View Report
05-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, India may issue US$ 5bn bonds in FY21, with no cap on foreign investment.
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04-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI rose to a near 8-year high of 55.3 in Jan’20 from 52.7 in Dec’19.
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03-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Over to RBI now
Global yields fell led by US over concerns of economic impact of coronavirus.
View Report
03-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Dec’19 reached Rs 1.1tn (+8% on YoY basis) from Rs 1tn in Nov’19 (+8.9%).
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01-Feb-20
BOB Economics | Union Budget 2020-21: Counter cyclical Budget
With a 3.8% and 3.5% fiscal deficit in FY20 and FY21, the FM delivered a counter cyclical Budget to boost consumption and investment.
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31-Jan-20
BOB Economics | 1st RE of National Income: FY19 growth revised to 6.1%
CSO has revised FY18 and FY19 GDP growth lower by 20bps and 70bps respectively.
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31-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2019-20: Pro-Growth
Economic Survey estimates growth to improve to 6-6.5% in FY21 from 5% in FY20 on the back of a low base, higher global demand and measures taken by the government to improve investment and consumption.
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31-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, the government has collected over Rs 380bn in taxes under the Sabka Vishwas scheme (legacy dispute resolution) vs target of Rs 350 bn.
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30-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 25.5bn and stood at Rs 23tn for the week ending 24 Jan 2020.
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29-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort to boost alternate sources of infra funding, NHAI has planned to raise Rs 150-200bn through its maiden InvIT offer.
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28-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to first advance estimates for 2019-20, horticulture output is expected to rise by 0.8% to 313.3mn tn (2019-20) compared with last year.
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27-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Awaiting a growth oriented Budget
Global yields, equities and commodities fell over impact of spread of Coronavirus on economic growth.
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27-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh lifetime high of US$ 462.2bn in the week ended 17 Jan 2020.
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24-Jan-20
BOB Economics | FY21 Budget Preview: Investment revival a priority
We believe reviving growth and investments will take centre stage in FY21 Budget.
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24-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is seeking Rs 100bn interim dividend from RBI in FY20.
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23-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 68.9bn and stood at Rs 23tn for the week ending 17 Jan 2020.
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22-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, direct tax collections on FYTD basis (till 15 Jan 2020) are down by (-) 5.2% to Rs 7.3tn vs BE of Rs 13.4tn.
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21-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has revised India’s growth projection downward sharply to 4.8% in FY20 (6.1% earlier).
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20-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Union Budget to take centre-stage
US equity markets surged to new highs on the back of signing of US-China trade deal and positive macro data in US (retail sales, housing starts) and China (GDP, industrial production, investments).
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20-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, central government has raised tax department’s targets for GST collections to Rs 1.15tn for Jan and Feb’20 and to Rs 1.25tn for Mar’20.
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17-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
UN estimates India’s GDP growth to slow down to 5.7% in FY20 from 6.8% in FY19 and 7.6% estimated earlier.
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16-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit in Dec’19 narrowed to US$ 11.3bn from US$ 12.1bn in Nov’19 as imports fell by (-) 8.8% vs (-) 1.8% decline in exports.
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15-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil imports decline as demand remains weak
India’s trade deficit in Dec’19 narrowed to US$ 11.3bn from US$ 12.1bn in Nov’19 as imports fell by (-) 8.8% vis-à-vis (-) 1.8% decline in exports.
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15-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is seeking Rs 190bn as dividend from state oil companies.
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14-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI also inches up-Rate cut off the table
WPI inflation edged up to 7-month high of 2.6% in Dec’19 from 0.6% in Nov’19 led by food inflation which rose to 11% in Dec’19 (9% in Nov’19).
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14-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
CPI in India spiked to 7.4% in Dec’19 from 5.5% in Nov’19, led by sharp acceleration in food prices (14.1%).
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13-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Retail Inflation: A big negative surprise
CPI rose to more than 5-year high of 7.4% in Dec’19 led by food inflation at 14.1%.
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13-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US-China trade deal at the epicentre
US 10Y yield went up despite lower than estimated payroll additions.
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13-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s passenger car sales continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace to (-) 8.4% in Dec’19 from (-) 10.8% in Nov’19.
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10-Jan-20
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP improves marginally
Industrial growth rose to 4-month high of 1.8% in Nov’19 from (-) 4% in Oct’19.
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10-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Gradual recovery on the cards
While manufacturing and services PMIs picked up further in Dec’19, decelerating railway freight and credit growth, lacklustre non-oil-non-gold imports and dip in government spending imply that broader economic activity is muted.
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10-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
News reports suggest that the government is considering reducing the requirement and number of days for starting a new business from 10 process and 18 days presently, to 5 process and 5 days.
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09-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank estimates India’s GDP to grow at an 11-year low of 5% in FY20 from 6% estimated earlier.
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08-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s GDP growth in FY20 is estimated at 5% vs 6.8% in FY19, due to sharp deceleration in investment (1% vs 10%) and PFCE (5.8% vs 8.1%).
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07-Jan-20
BOB Economics | FY20 GDP: Gradual revival seen in FY21
India’s growth is estimated at 5% in FY20 (6.8% in FY19).
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07-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI rose to 53.3 in Dec’19 (5-month high) from 52.7 in Nov’19.
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06-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Oil prices to guide Indian Markets
US yields edged down as US consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing data was below estimates.
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06-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government may propose a litigation settlement scheme on the lines of Sabka Vishwas scheme.
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03-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 7-month high of 52.7 in Dec’19 from 51.2 in Nov’19, signalling a possible recovery.
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02-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 17.8bn and stood at Rs 22.7tn for the week ending 27 Dec 2019.
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01-Jan-20
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s core sector output contracted for the 4th consecutive month to (-) 1.5% in Nov’19 from (-) 5.8% in Oct’19.
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31-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: Lower CAD and higher inflows to support INR
Led by a sharp dip in trade deficit, India’s CAD narrowed to US$ 6.3bn (0.9% of GDP) in Q2 from US$ 14.2bn (2% of GDP) in Q1.
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31-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
State governments in India are expected to borrow Rs 2.1tn in Q4FY20 vs Rs 1.4tn in Q3FY20 (till 23 Dec).
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30-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Indian 10Y yield falls, but oil prices may limit gains
Global equity markets were higher and DXY weakened as risk-sentiment improved.
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30-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s FSR highlighted capital adequacy of SCBs has improved after PSB recap.
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27-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to balance liquidity mismatches, RBI announced another round of simultaneous OMO purchase (long end securities) and sale (short end) of Rs 100bn each.
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26-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s report showed that GNPA ratio of SCBs declined to 9.1% in FY19 from 11.2% in FY18.
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24-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, central government is expected to report Rs 630bn shortfall in GST cess collections.
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23-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: 'Operation twist’ to guide Indian bonds
Global equities went up as macro data continued to be positive with improvement in industrial output in US and China.
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23-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose to a fresh lifetime high of US$ 454.5bn in the week ended 13 Dec 2019.
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20-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy rate and stance unchanged, though they believe the monetary space to cut rate exists.
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19-Dec-19
BOB Economics | December MPC Minutes: Room for further easing remains
MPC members voted unanimously to keep policy rate and stance unchanged.
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19-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
GST Council in its meeting decided to keep a uniform tax rate on lottery at 28% and standardise rates on woven and non-woven bags (18%).
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18-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Centre’s gross tax collections are up by 4.8% in FYTD20 (till 17 Dec) vs BE of 18.3%.
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17-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, Centre is expected to sell 28% of its 54.03% stake in BEML Ltd in order to inch closer to its Rs 1.05tn FY20BE disinvestment target.
View Report
16-Dec-19
BOB Economics | WPI: Food inflation drives WPI higher
WPI inflation inched up to 0.6% in Nov’19 from 0.2% in Oct’19 led by food inflation which rose to 9% in Nov’19 (7.6% in Oct’19).
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16-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US-China trade deal lifts sentiments
Global economy seems to be in a better shape with exports from Germany and Taiwan improving.
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16-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s trade deficit in Nov’19 rose to US$ 12.1bn vs US$ 11bn in Oct’19 led by higher gold (6.6% in Nov’19 vs 4.7% in Oct’19) and oil (-18.2% vs -31.7%) imports.
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13-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Trade: Non-oil-non-gold imports fall sharply
India’s trade deficit in Nov’19 rose to US$ 12.1bn versus US$ 11bn in Oct’19 led by higher gold and oil imports.
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13-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s IIP surprised positively at (-) 3.8% in Oct’19 vs (-) 4.3% in Sep’19.
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12-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Food inflation at 70-month high
IIP surprised positively at (-) 3.8% in Oct’19 compared with (-) 4.3% in Sep’19.
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12-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Union Cabinet has approved NHAI’s proposal to set up an Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) and monetise its completed highway projects.
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11-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Broader recovery still afar
While manufacturing and services PMIs picked up in Nov’19, muted diesel demand, decelerating railway freight and non-oil-non-gold imports imply that broader economic activity is muted.
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11-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ADB has sharply cut India’s growth forecast for FY20 to 5.1% from 6.5% earlier due to stress in the NBFC sector and muted consumption growth.
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10-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government may increase the FDI limit for insurance companies to 74% in the Budget from 49% presently.
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09-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Spotlight on Fed and ECB
Global yields went up as manufacturing and services PMIs rose led by China.
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09-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI data shows that credit growth in Nov’19 eased to 6.9% vs 8.9% in Oct’19.
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06-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI kept repo rate on hold as it revised its inflation trajectory to 4.9% in H2FY20 from 3.6% in Oct’19.
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05-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Rate cuts to resume in Q1FY21
RBI kept repo rate on hold as it revised its inflation trajectory upwards to 4.9% in H2FY20 from 3.6% in Oct’19.
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05-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI jumped to 52.7 in Nov’19 from 49.2 in Oct’19.
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04-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ISMA data showed sugar production has fallen by 54% to 1.89mn tonnes as on Nov’19 (4.07mn tonnes as on Nov’18).
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03-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s manufacturing PMI rose marginally to 51.2 in Nov’19 from a 2-year low of 50.6 in Oct’19 on the back of improved business conditions.
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02-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI to cut rates to prop growth
Global macro data showed a mix picture.
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02-Dec-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
GST collections for the month of Oct’19 reached Rs 1.03tn from Rs 954bn in Sep’19.
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29-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Q2FY20 GDP: Slowdown intensifies as investments slip
India’s GDP growth fell to a 26-quarter low at 4.5% in Q2FY20 on the back of deceleration in investment demand to 1%.
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29-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government presented bill for additional spending of Rs 212bn in the parliament.
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28-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by Rs 18.6bn and stood at Rs 22.6tn for the week ending 22 Nov 2019.
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27-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In continuation with its disinvestment efforts, government has collected Rs 7.3bn from divestment of 10% stake in RITES Ltd, through the OFS route.
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26-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In view of surging onion prices, MMTC has been contracted to import 6,090 tons of onion, in response to government’s decision to import 0.12mn tons.
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25-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets await Q2 growth print
US existing home sales rose at its fastest pace in 2-years.
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25-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government may amend the IBC in the winter session of the parliament.
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22-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
OECD has cut India’s GDP forecast to 5.8% in FY20 from 5.9% earlier and 6.8% in FY19.
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21-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In a relief to the telecom sector, Cabinet has allowed a 2-year moratorium on spectrum related dues.
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20-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has reaffirmed that it will be able to meet its FD target of 3.3% for FY20, with expenditure on track.
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19-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Air passenger traffic has bounced back in Oct’19 supported by festive demand.
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18-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Slowdown led by China and India
Global yields fell due to delay in finalizing US-China trade deal and weaker than estimated industrial output in China, US and UK.
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18-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose to a new lifetime high of US$ 447.8bn in the week ended 8 Nov 2019.
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15-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Trade: Imports see a sharp dip, exports steady
India’s trade deficit in Oct’19 remained steady at US$ 11.1bn versus US$ 10.9bn in Sep’19.
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15-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
WPI inflation eased to 0.2% in Oct’19 from 0.3% in Sep’19, led by fuel and power index (-8.3% vs -7.1%).
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14-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation eases to more than 3-year low
WPI inflation cooled off to 0.2% in Oct’19 from 0.3% in Sep’19 led by fuel and power index which declined by (-) 8.3% in Oct’19.
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14-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
CPI inflation in India rose to a 16-month high at 4.6% in Oct’19, breaching MPC’s target of 4%, led by food inflation (vegetables at 26%).
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13-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Retail Inflation: CPI accelerates but core moderates
Retail inflation rose to a 16-month high of 4.6% in Oct’19, breaching MPC’s target of 4%, led by food inflation (especially vegetables at 26% and pulses at 11.7%).
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13-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI bought net US$ 5.6bn in the spot market in Sep’19 vs net sales of US$ 4.1bn in Aug’19.
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11-Nov-19
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP nosedives, case for another rate cut
Industrial growth declined by (-) 4.3%, lowest in the current series.
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11-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India's inflation to rise above 4%
Global sentiment improved as US and China are near to a trade deal.
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11-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government revenue receipts might see a turnaround with implementation of Direct Tax Code.
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08-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Government spending to offset weak consumption
Consumption demand remained muted even as mild pick-up was seen in the festive season.
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08-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Moody's downgraded India's credit rating outlook to negative from stable.
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07-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has approved Rs 250bn special window as a Category-2 Alternate Investment Fund (AIF) to boost real estate sector.
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06-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI fell to 49.2 in Oct’19 vs 48.7 in Sep’19.
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05-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India has decided to not join RCEP citing concerns over India’s economic interests particularly for farmers, MSMEs and consumers.
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04-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US-China trade deal to remain in focus
Third consecutive rate cut by US Fed and continuation of accommodative stance by BoJ led to decline in global yields.
View Report
04-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Sep’19 rose to Rs 954bn from Rs 919bn in Aug’19.
View Report
01-Nov-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government’s fiscal deficit reached Rs 6.5tn in H1FY20 vs FY20BE of Rs 7tn.
View Report
31-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 308bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 25 Oct 2019.
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30-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, a Committee of Secretaries (CoS) will be formed to look at options for relief package to the telecom sector, in the wake of SC’s current ruling on AGR.
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29-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Awaiting US Fed and BoJ policy decisions
Growth worries continued with dip in China’s industrial profits and decline in US imports.
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29-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI data shows that credit growth inched up marginally by 8.8% for the fortnight ending 11 Oct 2019 vs 8.7% in Sep’19.
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25-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
BJP led alliance is set to be in power in Maharashtra and Haryana with 161 and 40 seats respectively out of 288 and 90 seats.
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24-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In the latest round of World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business, India’s rank notched up 14 places to 63 among 190 countries.
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23-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, government is expected to announce MSP of Rabi crops for AY20, in a major relief to farmers.
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22-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Markets rally on US-China trade deal
Growth concerns came to the fore as macro data in US (retail sales, industrial production) and China (exports, Q3GDP) disappointed.
View Report
22-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per MoSPI data, implementation cost of 1,608 projects was Rs 19.2tn and their completion cost is estimated to be higher at Rs 23.1tn.
View Report
18-Oct-19
BOB Economics | October MPC Minutes: Growth concerns imply another 25bps cut
MPC minutes show four out of six members favour accommodative stance and further rate cuts as long as economy is firmly on the path to recovery.
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18-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, domestic air passenger traffic growth moderated to 1.2% in Sep’19 compared with 3.9% in Aug ’19, on a YoY basis.
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17-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s fuel demand in H1FY20 eased to 1.7% vs 3.8% in H1FY19. It is also lower than 2.9% increase seen in H2FY19.
View Report
16-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has slashed India’s growth forecast downward by 90bps to 6.1% in FY20.
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15-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Trade: Trade deficit narrows as imports shrink
India’s trade deficit in Sep’19 reduced to US$ 10.9bn versus US$ 13.5bn in Aug’19.
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15-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
CPI inflation in India rose to a 14-month high at 4% in Sep’19 led by food inflation, particularly vegetable (15.4%) and meat and fish (10.3%).
View Report
14-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Retail Inflation: Core moderates, food accelerates
Retail inflation rose to a 14-month high at 4% in Sep’19 led by food inflation, particularly vegetable (15.4%) and meat and fish (10.3%).
View Report
14-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation eases to a 39-month low
WPI inflation eased to 0.3% in Sep’19 from 1.1% in Aug’19 driven by lower fuel and power inflation at (-) 7.1% in Sep’19 (-4% in Aug’19).
View Report
14-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US-China trade deal lifts sentiment
Global sentiment improved as US and China reached a trade truce.
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14-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
World Bank has slashed India’s GDP forecast in FY20 to 6% from 7.5% earlier.
View Report
12-Oct-19
BOB Economics | IIP: Broad based slowdown
IIP growth slipped to (-) 1.1% in Aug’19 vs 4.6% in Jul’19, lowest in this series.
View Report
11-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to boost compliance, government has made changes to the input tax credit scheme under GST.
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10-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Sentiment improves, growth to follow
Economic sentiment improved after Centre’s surprise announcement to cut corporate tax even as consumption slowdown continued for another month.
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10-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 197bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 4 Oct 2019.
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09-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to National Bulk Handling Corporation (NHBC), foodgrain production is expected to be higher by 8.4mn tonne (140.57mn tonne in AY20) from its average output in the past 5 years.
View Report
07-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global activity dips in Sep’19
Global economy has slowed down further in Sep’19 with US ISM manufacturing index at a 10-year low.
View Report
07-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI index fell sharply in Sep’19 to 48.7 from 52.4 in Aug’19.
View Report
07-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI index fell sharply in Sep’19 to 48.7 from 52.4 in Aug’19.
View Report
04-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Room for another rate cut
RBI reduced repo rate by 25bps thus taking cumulative rate cuts by the central bank to 135bps since Feb’19.
View Report
04-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 12.9bn and stood at Rs 21.8tn for the week ending 27 Sep 2019.
View Report
03-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Aug’19 fell to Rs 919bn (-2.7%) vs Rs 982bn in Jul’19 (+4.5%).
View Report
01-Oct-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s core sector growth contracted by (-) 0.5% and to a 52-month low in Aug’19 from 2.7% in Jul’19.
View Report
30-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Interest Rate Outlook: Adherence to borrowing glide path implies lower yields
Centre has maintained its guidance of gross borrowings at Rs 7.1tn in FY20.
View Report
30-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Balance of Payments: CAD expands in Q1, but will moderate
Despite an increase in CAD to US$ 14.3bn in Q1 from US$ 4.6bn in Q4, India’s BoP surplus remained stable at US$ 14bn.
View Report
30-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: RBI policy and H2 borrowing to drive yields
Global manufacturing activity weakened further in Sep’19, especially in the Eurozone.
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30-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has reviewed the progress in capex spending in H1FY20.
View Report
27-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s working group on Liquidity Management Framework has suggested to continue with the corridor system (call: target rate, repo: policy rate).
View Report
26-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) declined by (-) Rs 179.1bn and stood at Rs 21.8tn for the week ending 20 Sep 2019.
View Report
25-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
ADB has revised its growth forecast downward for India to 6.5% from 7.2% earlier in FY20.
View Report
24-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to the 1st advance estimates, foodgrain production for agriculture year 2019-20 is expected to be (-) 0.7% lower at 140.57mn tonnes compared with last year.
View Report
23-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: India corporate tax cut to boost investments
Global economy seems to have slowed down further led by dip in China’s retail sales and fixed asset investments.
View Report
23-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
To address the current economic slowdown, government has reduced the effective corporate tax rate to 25.2% from 29.5% currently.
View Report
20-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Fiscal Reforms: As bold as it gets
India’s FM announced one of the boldest reform to kick start the investment cycle by reducing effective corporate tax rate by 4.3% to 25.2%.
View Report
20-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has announced measures to boost credit disbursement. It has asked state run banks to hold open meetings in 400 districts (200 districts will be covered by 29 Sep 2019) along with the NBFCs to focus on MSMEs and retail customers.
View Report
19-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation (CIC) increased by Rs 111.5bn and stood at Rs 22tn for the week ending 13 Sep 2019.
View Report
18-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, government is expected to increase the allocation of subsidised foodgrain by additional 2kg from the current 5kg of grains provided each month, under NFSA.
View Report
17-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s WPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.1% in Aug’19. Food inflation rose to 5.8% in Aug’19 (4.5% in Jul’19).
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16-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: Food prices rise, oil and commodity prices fall
WPI inflation remained unchanged at 1.1% in Aug’19.
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16-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Central Banks in focus
Even as ECB lowered its deposit rate by 10bps and announced a bond buying program, global yields inched up as US-China trade tensions eased.
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16-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
FM has announced measures to boost housing demand which includes relaxation of ECB guidelines for PMAY, in consultation with RBI.
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13-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Trade: Global and domestic demand weakens further
India’s trade deficit in Aug’19 remained stable at US$ 13.5bn versus US$ 13.4bn in Jul’19.
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13-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI sold US$ 93mn in the spot market in Jul’19 vs purchase of US$ 2.5bn in Jun’19.
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12-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Inflation and IIP: Food accelerates, core stable
Industrial activity surprised positively at 4.3% in Jul’19 led by mining and manufacturing.
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12-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Transmission of lower rates to drive recovery
Consumption slowdown intensified in Aug’19 with further dip in auto demand.
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12-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government will set up a fund to provide guarantees to borrowers with low credit score.
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11-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s panel on housing finance securitisation market has suggested that an intermediary should be set up under NHB, wherein government will have a 51% ownership.
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09-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: All eyes on ECB
Global manufacturing output remained weak while services sector seems to be holding up for now.
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09-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Indian government has set up a taskforce to prepare the roadmap of “national infrastructure pipeline” in the next 5 years.
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06-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In a bid to provide stimulus for road infrastructure, NHAI is expected to address concerns on multiple fronts.
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05-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI slipped to 52.4 in Aug’19 from 53.8 in Jul’19 largely on account of softer pace of increase in new business inflows, particularly domestic orders.
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04-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, state governments are expected to suggest measures to help curtail lower prices that arise due to surplus stock of sugar.
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03-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: US-China tariffs in focus
Global sovereign yields fell as economic outlook remains weak.
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03-Sep-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s eight core industries rose by 2.1% in Jul’19 compared with 0.7% in Jun’19.
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30-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Q1FY20 GDP: Reforms and liquidity to drive recovery
India’s growth moderated to 5% in Q1FY20 on the back of a consumption and investment led slowdown.
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30-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI in its Annual Report explained the transfer of a record amount of Rs 1.76tn to government (Rs 500bn last year).
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29-Aug-19
BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: RBI dividend to boost growth
RBI will be transferring a record amount of Rs 1.76tn to government (Rs 500bn last year).
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29-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In order to improve FDI inflows, Cabinet has permitted 100% FDI under the automatic route in contract manufacturing.
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28-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government might provide stimulus to real estate sector reeling due to muted demand and liquidity woes.
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28-Aug-19
BOB Economics | India Economic Outlook: Lower rates, liquidity to drive cyclical recovery
The downturn in global and domestic economy is mirrored in India’s consumption, investment and export slowdown. A growth revival requires lower interest rates and liquidity.
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27-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
The Bimal Jalan Committee on Economic Capital Framework (ECF) recommended that realised gains can be distributed while unrealised gains cannot be (Rs 7tn as on 31 Jun’18).
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26-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global uncertainty increases
Amidst weak global macro indicators (PMI and US new home sales), China announced new set of tariffs on US goods.
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26-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
In an effort boost domestic economy, FM has announced a host of economic reforms.
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23-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, domestic air passenger traffic rose by 3.1% between Jan-Jul’19; slowest pace in 5 years.
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22-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI minutes revealed that MPC has kept room open for further reduction in rates as economic activity continues to decelerate.
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21-Aug-19
BOB Economics | August MPC Minutes: Focus on growth to continue
With economic activity continuing to decelerate since June policy meeting, RBI reduced policy rate by 35bps.
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21-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to news reports, 15th Finance Commission (FC) is expected to discontinue the revenue deficit grants given to states.
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20-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to fourth advance estimates, while foodgrain output at 285mn tonne missed its target for 2018-19, it was still higher than the last 5-year average.
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19-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: FOMC and RBI minutes to take centre stage
Global economy is slowing down with weak industrial output in US, China and Japan.
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19-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 430.6bn in the week ending 9 Aug 2019.
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14-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Trade: Gold and oil imports decline
India’s trade deficit declined to US$ 13.4bn from US$ 15.3bn in Jun’19 on the back of higher exports and lower imports.
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14-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation sees a steep fall
WPI inflation moderated to 1.1% in Jul’19 from 2% in Jun’19.
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14-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s CPI slipped to 3.1% in Jul’19 from 3.2% in Jun’19.
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13-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Retail Inflation: CPI moderates, room to cut rates
Retail inflation slipped to 3.1% in Jul’19 from 3.2% in Jun’19.
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13-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Global yields fell, India an outlier
Central Banks of Thailand, Philippines and New Zealand reduced policy rates to support growth which supported equity markets.
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13-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
As per news reports, government is aiming to launch new crop insurance scheme which will maximise benefits under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojona (PMFBY).
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09-Aug-19
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth moderates
Industrial growth edged down to a four month low of 2% in Jun’19 compared with 4.6% in May’19.
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09-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Global easing cycle on the way
Consumption and investment demand remained subdued with decline in auto sales, non-oil-non-gold imports, capital goods production and imports.
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09-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI’s consumer confidence dropped to 95.7 in Jul’19 (lowest since Dec’18) vs 97.3 in May’19.
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08-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI surprised with a 35bps cut in policy rates (4-2 vote) while maintaining an accommodative stance.
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07-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Unconventional rate cut
RBI surprised with a 35bps reduction in policy rates (4-2 vote) while maintaining an accommodative stance.
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07-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
RBI in its current policy is expected to cut rates for the fourth successive time.
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06-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s services PMI jumped back into expansion, rising to a 1-year high at 53.8 in Jul’19 from 49.6 in Jun’19.
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05-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Fed cuts rate, RBI to follow
US-China trade war escalated as US announced additional tariffs on US$ 300bn of Chinese imports.
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05-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
India’s forex reserves declined to US$ 429.6 from a lifetime high of US$ 430.4bn in the week ending 26 Jul 2019.
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02-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Total GST collections for Jun’19 reached Rs 1tn vs Rs 999bn in May’19.
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01-Aug-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Central government’s fiscal data shows that it lowered its spending in Q1FY20 to 2% vs 8.7% in Q1FY19.
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31-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has passed the code on wages bill which is expected to benefit over 500mn workers.
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30-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
According to data released by DIPAM, in FYTD20 the government has so far collected Rs 124bn through disinvestment vs the budgetary target of Rs 1.05tn.
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29-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Weekly Wrap: Awaiting US Fed stance
ECB held policy rates steady but emphasised that low inflation will call for more accommodation even though recession fear is low.
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29-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
GST council has reduced tax rate for electric vehicles (EV) from 12% to 5% and for EV chargers from 18% to 5%.
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26-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) payroll data showed that 1.27mn jobs were created in May’19, higher than 1.12mn in Apr’19.
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25-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Indian government has approved creation of sugar buffer stock of 4mn tonne in order to address the bumper crop production and pending cane arrears of over Rs 15.2bn.
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24-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
IMF has cut India’s GDP forecast by 30bps for FY20 and FY21 to 7% and 7.2% respectively.
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23-Jul-19
BOB Economics | Macro Daily
Government has kept a target of adding over 13mn new filers in FY20 vs 11mn filers added in FY19.
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22-Jul-19
Weekly Wrap: Global easing cycle gains steam
With growth slowing down, EM central banks such as South Korea and Indonesia…
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22-Jul-19
Macro Daily
In a major relief to IT and ITES sector, government has announced…
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19-Jul-19
Macro Daily
ADB has revised India’s growth projection downward...
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18-Jul-19
Economics: Macro Daily
RBI reported that currency in circulation increased by Rs 74bn (on a weekly basis) and stood at Rs 2
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