22-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sell-off in global bonds and equities continued amidst the increased possibility of higher for longer US rates
View Report 
21-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.5%
View Report 
20-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.28mn units in Aug’23 (est. 1.45mn units), from 1.45mn units in Jul’23, as rising mortgage rates dented demand
View Report 
18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US industrial production moderated to 0.4% in Aug’23 (est. 0.1%) from 0.7% in Jul’23
View Report 
18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
INR depreciated to a fresh record-low of 83.18/$ on 15 Sep 2023 led by a confluence of adverse shocks of rising dollar, higher oil prices and FPI outflows
View Report 
18-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing Update
For the period till date (upto 15 Sep’23), monsoon activity is in deficit zone at 9% below LPA
View Report 
15-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s economy signalled early signs of recovery on the back of better than expected data led by improvement in retail sales (4.6% from 2.5% in Jul’23) and industrial output (4.5% from 3.7% in Jul’23)
View Report 
14-Sep-23
BOB Economics | WPI at highest since Mar’23
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Aug’23, although its pace slowed, as it fell to (-) 0.5% compared with (-) 1.4% in Jul’23
View Report 
14-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors tracked US CPI which reflected prices have heated up at the fastest pace in over 14-months (3.7% in Aug’23)
View Report 
13-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors braced for the release of the CPI print and offer clarity on how long will Fed continue to tighten the policy rates
View Report 
12-Sep-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: Inflation eased – Veggie spike cooled a bit
CPI print remained broadly aligned with our estimate of 6.9% in Aug’23 and came in at 6.8% far lower compared to 7.4% seen in Jul’23
View Report 
12-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors have turned their focus towards the upcoming release of US CPI print which might offer guidance over the course of Fed’s restrictive policy
View Report 
11-Sep-23
BOB Economics Research | The CD market in FY24
To augment funds, banks have relied on alternative sources, one of which is through issuance of Certificate of Deposits or CDs
View Report 
11-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South-West monsoon cumulatively stands at 10% below LPA till 11 Sep 2023.
View Report 
11-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In China, as an encouraging sign towards economic recovery, deflationary pressure eased after CPI returned back in to the positive territory (+0.1% vs -0.3% in Jul’23)
View Report 
08-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Jobless claims data in the US fell to its 7-month low signalling tighter labour market conditions
View Report 
07-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US ISM services PMI accelerated to 54.5 in Aug’23 (est. 52.5) from 52.7 in Jul’23, once again attesting to the strength of the US economy
View Report 
06-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The news of Saudi Arabia continuing with its production cut of 1mbpd till Dec and Russia scaling back exports up to 300,000bbl/day has sent quite a bit of shock in the asset market
View Report 
05-Sep-23
BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index, Aug 2023
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has moderated to 0.7% in Aug’23 and further has fallen by 1.7% in Sep’23, on a sequential basis
View Report 
05-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s Caixin services PMI expanded at its slowest pace in 8 months dropping to 51.8 in Aug’23 against expectation of 53.5 and previous month’s level of 54.1
View Report 
04-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below LPA
View Report 
04-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data gave mixed signals to the market
View Report 
01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: August 2023
Macro data points from the US, Europe and China and are showing that weakness in manufacturing and services activity still persists
View Report 
01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
US 10Y yield has pared most of its increase in Aug’23 as major growth indicators remained patchy
View Report 
01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review
After depreciating to a record-low during the month, INR made a smart recovery to end the month only marginally lower
View Report 
01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | BoB Forecasts of kharif production
Past data indicates that over 90% of kharif sowing is completed by August end
View Report 
01-Sep-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from US shows core PCE price index came in line with expectations as it rose by 4.2% (YoY) in Jul’23, tad up from 4.1% in Jun’23, and registered 0.2% MoM gain
View Report 
31-Aug-23
BOB Economics | GDP growth in Q1: India-fastest growing major economy
India’s GDP rose by 7.8% in Q1FY24, following 6.1% growth in Q4FY23
View Report 
31-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data from major economies once again fuelled fears of a slowdown in growth. In US, private payrolls (177k versus est. 195k) and second revised estimates of Q2CY23 GDP (2.1% versus est. 2.4%) missed market expectations
View Report 
30-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Job openings data (JOLTS) for the US showed that openings dropped to 2.5 year low in Jul’23 to 8.83mn (est.: 9.45mn), down from 9.17mn in Jun’23
View Report 
29-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India has been witnessing deficient rainfall in the month of August and it stands at 32% below LPA compared with a 13% (above LPA) surplus rainfall received back in July
View Report 
29-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Market participants await more cues from US macro data to gauge Fed’s future rate actions
View Report 
28-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Globally, both consumer and business confidence indices took a beating in Aug’23
View Report 
25-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained on edge as investors keenly await guidance on future rate trajectory at Jackson Hole
View Report 
24-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in advanced economies signalled a significant moderation, led by a drop in momentum in the services sector
View Report 
23-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the US economy could reaccelerate rather than slowdown
View Report 
22-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Expectations of US rates remaining higher for longer have increased, leading to a further sell-off in global bonds
View Report 
21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | India’s crude import-story so far
Russia meets a large portion of India’s ever growing demand for crude oil
View Report 
21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
For the cumulative period till 18th August, India’s South West Monsoon is down by 6% below LPA (3% below LPA last week) compared with 9% surplus last year for the same period
View Report 
21-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
After a turbulent week, a degree of calm returned to the global markets as investors await commentary from major central banks at the Jackson Hole Symposium
View Report 
18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Bond Yields: Why Bond yields are inching up
US 10Y yield has risen considerably post the last Fed policy meeting (26 Jul)
View Report 
18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR at record low - What’s next?
INR closed at a record low of 83.15/$ yesterday, just short of an intra-day low of 83.24/$ in Oct’22
View Report 
18-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst the news of Chinese property developer filing for bankruptcy claims and dismal economic data, there has been growing concerns around uneven recovery in the economy
View Report 
17-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Uncertainty around slower pace of recovery in China’s and fear of Fed keeping rate hike on the table longer than anticipated kept the global indices on the edge
View Report 
14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | CPI and WPI: Sharp pick-up in inflation – a cautionary call
CPI print surprised way above expectation at 7.44%, and was the highest since Apr-22
View Report 
14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South West Monsoon slowed down marginally to 3% below LPA (5% surplus last week) compared with 8% surplus last year for the same period
View Report 
14-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US PPI data rose more than expected both on a sequential (0.3%, est: 0.2%) and YoY basis (0.8%, est.: 0.7%) in Jul’23
View Report 
11-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data remained comforting
View Report 
10-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI maintains status quo
In a unanimous decision, MPC members have decided to keep the policy rates on hold, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report 
10-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors remained cautious ahead of release of US CPI data, where a sequential pickup of 0.2% is expected both for headline print and core CPI
View Report 
09-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Capex Trends: How has state capex performed in Q1FY24?
Capital expenditure by the government continues to remain the key driver of economic growth in the last few years
View Report 
09-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Adding to further woes, China’s inflation data softened considerably in Jul’23
View Report 
08-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI likely to stand pat
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in the upcoming policy meet
View Report 
08-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators showed some degree of softening
View Report 
07-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: July 2023
More macro data now points towards slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jul’23
View Report 
07-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobs report showed some degree of softening as it rose by 187k (slowest pace since Dec’20) and less than expectation of 200K
View Report 
05-Aug-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jul’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has picked up sharply by 4.9% (MoM) and 6.5% (YoY) in Jul’23
View Report 
05-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 5% above LPA as of 4 Aug2023
View Report 
04-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectation, BoE with 6-3 votes favoured to raise rates by 25bps to 5.25% (15-year high) and noted the borrowing cost will remain high for as long as it takes to return inflation to the 2% target level
View Report 
03-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted sharply to the news of Fitch downgrading US sovereign debt
View Report 
02-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fitch downgraded the US rating to AA+ from AAA over concerns of fiscal deterioration expected in next 3-years and repeated debt-ceiling negotiations with last minute resolutions that has eroded confidence in fiscal management
View Report 
01-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
Growth remained comparatively on better footing for US, Eurozone and India; thus risk on sentiments led firming up of yields of these economies
View Report 
01-Aug-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s quarterly survey noted that US banks have reported weaker loan demand and tighter credit standards in Q2CY23, reflecting pass-through of rising interest rates
View Report 
31-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
The intensity of rainfall has pushed South-West monsoon higher at 6% (above LPA) till 30 Jul 2023
View Report 
31-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in US as measured by Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE price index softened to 3% in Jun’23 (3.8% in May’23), its slowest pace in ~2 years
View Report 
28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Trends in state fiscal deficits
In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY23 and FY24, we start by looking at the trends in fiscal balance of states
View Report 
28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR likely to remain range-bound
Global growth and inflation continue to show diverging trends
View Report 
28-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of Japan in a surprise move, tweaked its yield control curve (YCC) to allow for “greater flexibility”, while keeping policy rate unchanged
View Report 
27-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Corporate debt structure in India
During the peak of Covid-19 pandemic, a phenomenon which gained prominence amongst Indian corporates was deleveraging-or a decline in overall debt
View Report 
27-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with expectations, Fed raised its policy rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%-a 22 year high
View Report 
26-Jul-23
BOB Economics | India’s crude imports – Growing phase
India is amongst top 5 importers of crude oil across the globe
View Report 
26-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has upgraded the global growth forecast to 3% in CY23 from 2.8% estimated earlier amidst a slowdown in inflation, resolution of US debt ceiling and reduced stress in the banking sector
View Report 
25-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of key central bank meetings, flash PMIs of major economies showed signs of increased stress
View Report 
24-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Positive changes seen
India’s South-West monsoon has gathered momentum with higher rainfall at 5% (above LPA) till 23 Jul 2023
View Report 
24-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Market focus remains on major central bank meetings as the Fed, Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meet later in the week
View Report 
21-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market data for US shows that it continues to strengthen, as initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 Jul’23 fell by 9k to 228k (est.: 241k)
View Report 
20-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK’s retail inflation print for Jun’23 came in lower than expected (8.2%) at 7.9%, down from 8.7% in May’23
View Report 
19-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US industrial production (MoM) in Jun’23 fell again by (-) 0.5% (est.: 0%), at an unchanged rate from May’23
View Report 
18-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As China’s economy is showing mixed signs of growth (industrial production up; moderation in retail sales and FAI), investors are expecting a global growth slowdown in Q3
View Report 
17-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as hopes of a prolonged pause by Fed have increased, some members still remain hawkish
View Report 
17-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
India’s South-West monsoon continues to engulf the entire country resulting in higher rainfall at 1% (above LPA) till 14 Jul 2023
View Report 
14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Trade: Q1FY24 performance
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to US$ 57.6bn in Q1FY24 from US$ 62.6bn in the same period last year
View Report 
14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | WPI at lowest since Oct’15
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in Jun’23 as it fell to (-) 4.1% from (-) 3.5% in May’23
View Report 
14-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, PPI data also showed some degree of softening in prices as both on MoM and YoY basis (0.1% each) it moderated more than expected
View Report 
13-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation data prints in the US and India were the primary market movers
View Report 
12-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Red-hot inflation, IIP growth improves
CPI print rose more than expected by 4.8%
View Report 
12-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro data remained mixed
View Report 
11-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials namely Michael Barr, Mester and Daly spoke about a steeper Fed fund rate path in an effort to bring down inflation sustainably to the targeted 2% level
View Report 
10-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon and Sowing: Update
Advancement of South-West monsoon across the entire country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% (above LPA) till 9 Jul 2023
View Report 
10-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market data in the US showed some softening as non-farm payrolls rose by 209K (est.: 230k) in Jun’23
View Report 
07-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawk-eyes on inflation
Inflation concerns in India reignited with some upswing in vegetable prices especially tomato (0.57% wt in CPI) and onion (0.64% wt in CPI)
View Report 
07-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the release of Fed minutes, recent macro data (Private payrolls, ISM services PMI at 53.9 from 50.3) brought back the likelihood of more rate hikes
View Report 
06-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed in the minutes reiterated more rate hikes are in the offing as it continues to remain data dependent
View Report 
05-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets will await Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later today for more clarity on future path of rate hike
View Report 
04-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Economic Round-up: June 2023
Continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity in Jun’23 (at 6-month low of 48.8) and drop business optimism index to 7-month low, has reignited fears of global growth slowdown
View Report 
04-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of slowdown in US economy were back yet again after ISM manufacturing PMI (46 from 46.9 in May’23) reading came in at the same level as was last seen during Covid-19 wave
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | FPI Flow: India visa vis Globe
Indian economy remains a favored place for investment as has been reflected by strong FPI flows in the past few months
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Government Market Borrowing Update
State governments in Q1FY24 borrowed Rs 1.67 lakh crore from the market, lower than the planned amount of Rs 2 lakh crore, but higher than Q1FY23’s Rs 1.1 lakh crore
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR expected to trade with appreciating bias
Buoyant FPI inflows and a weaker dollar pushed INR 0.8% higher in Jun’23
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap
The reiteration of hawkish tone by central banks in US, Eurozone and UK have led to sell off in the bond market
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | The reason behind spike in tomato prices
Tomato prices are again on a spiral. On sequential basis, the average retail price of tomato went up by 38.5% in Jun’23
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | How prices look in Jun’23
BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) showed a slight uptick by 1.2% in Jun’23 on sequential basis, however, much of it is attributed to seasonality
View Report 
03-Jul-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central banks are expected to remain data dependent as they continue to battle elevated inflation
View Report 
30-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central banks are likely to continue raising rates as the fight against inflation seem far from over
View Report 
28-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data indicated that the economy remains on strong footing
View Report 
27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | How India Inc fared in terms of capital formation?
It is often blurry when we speak of the investment picture of Indian economy
View Report 
27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Household savings move towards markets
Household savings are a critical part of the growth process as they provide the funding required for the same
View Report 
27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Developments in India’s BoP in FY23
India’s CAD widened to -2% of GDP in FY23 from -1.2% of GDP in FY22
View Report 
27-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global central bank policies continue to remain the underlying theme driving market movements in the last few sessions
View Report 
26-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fresh fears of a global economic downturn emerged after flash composite PMIs of Japan (4-month low), US (3-month low), UK (3-month low) and Eurozone (5-month low) showed a slowdown
View Report 
23-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoE surprised the markets with a higher (+50bps) than anticipated (+25bps) rate hike in its Jun’23 policy meeting, stating “persistence in inflation process, tight labour market and resilience in demand” as the rationale
View Report 
22-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The much awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony was in line with markets’ expectations
View Report 
21-Jun-23
BOB Economics | How have NBFCs fared vis-à-vis Banks
Using the data largely from RBI’s report on Trend and Progress in Banking 2021-22, this study attempts to look at the performance of Non-Bank Financial Corporations (NBFCs) in the last few years and compares the same with scheduled commercial banks (SCBs)
View Report 
21-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts jumped sharply in May’23 to 1.63mn units (+21.7% MoM) from 1.34mn units in Apr’23
View Report 
20-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: How has Monsoon and Kharif fared in the past?
The onset of South West monsoon was delayed this year by more than a week against expectation (1st Jun)
View Report 
20-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following 10bps cut in 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by PBOC last week, now 1Y and 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR) have also been reduced by 10bps (est.: 15bps cut)
View Report 
19-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Bank continued to remain divergent with Bank of Japan sticking to its ultra-easy monetary policy
View Report 
16-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Policy decisions remained divergent with ECB raising policy rate by 25bps and hinting at being sufficiently restrictive on the back of elevated inflation
View Report 
15-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its latest meeting underwent a pause in its 500bps hiking cycle
View Report 
14-Jun-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 7.5 year low
WPI inflation continued to remain in deflation in May’23 as it fell to (-) 3.5% from (-) 0.9% in Apr’23, thus dropping to its 7.5 year low
View Report 
14-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the US, CPI print dropped to its lowest since Mar’21 recording a print of 4% in May’23 on YoY basis (est.:4.1%) and compared to 4.9% in Apr’23
View Report 
13-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In an effort to provide stimulus to the economy, PBOC has reduced the 7 day reverse repo rate by 10bps to 1.9%
View Report 
12-Jun-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves
CPI print cooled off to its lowest since Apr’21 to 4.3% in May’23
View Report 
12-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious ahead of a slew of macro data releases (inflation, industrial production and retail sales prints in major economies) and central bank meetings in the US, EU and Japan
View Report 
09-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Hawkish pause; monsoon to hold key
India’s GDP data confirmed that economic growth remains on firm ground
View Report 
09-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the softening of labour market in the US and expectation of moderation in inflation as well in May’23, investors are now hoping for an earlier than anticipated end in Fed’s rate hike cycle
View Report 
08-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI remains on hold
MPC members today again unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, with this, repo rate remains unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%
View Report 
08-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Central Bank of Canada surprised the markets by hiking its key policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, thus taking it to 22-year high
View Report 
07-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets were surprised yesterday as RBA raised its key policy by 25bps (est.: pause) to 11-year high of 4.1%, and further indicated that more tightening might be needed to bring inflation down to targeted levels
View Report 
06-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest macro data from the US shows that factory order rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23 (est.: 0.8%), slightly down from 0.6% in Mar’23
View Report 
05-Jun-23
Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to maintain status quo
In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2023, we expect MPC to remain on hold and keep the rates unchanged
View Report 
05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Additions to non-farm payrolls in the US rose more than expected (195k) in May’23 to 339k from 294k in Apr’23
View Report 
05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Bank credit growth in Apr'23
After increasing by 15% in Mar’23, bank credit growth picked up further to 15.9% in Apr’23
View Report 
05-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q4FY23?
The corporate sector recorded a fairly steady performance in Q4 of FY23 though growth in sales and net profits slowed down relative to last year
View Report 
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: How prices look in May’23
CPI print for May’23 is due to be released
View Report 
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Indian Economy FY24: A Prognosis
Global growth expected to slow down in 2023, led by Advanced Economies
View Report 
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | GDP: Looking closer at GDP Estimates
Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22
View Report 
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2023
Downward revision to Germany’s Q1CY23 GDP (-0.3% versus -0.5% in Q4CY22) has reignited fears of global growth slowdown on account of elevated prices, and aggressive tightening by central banks
View Report 
02-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors factored in a higher possibility of a pause on rate hike front by Fed (76% for pause) in the upcoming Fed meet given the early signs of labour market cooling off
View Report 
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
UK and US 10Y yields’ noticed quite a sharp upturn in May’23
View Report 
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR to be short-lived
INR depreciated in May’23 amidst renewed dollar strength
View Report 
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Commercial Paper: How funding through CPs have evolved?
Commercial Paper (CP) issuances have carved an important space historically and remained a preferred choice for better rated corporates for raising capital in a cost effective way from the market
View Report 
01-Jun-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to gauge the likelihood of rate hike or a pause in the upcoming Fed meet amidst comments from Fed officials and US job openings report
View Report 
31-May-23
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth in FY23 - Positive surprise
Indian economy rose by 7.2% in FY23 after expanding by 9.1% FY22.
View Report 
31-May-23
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.4% in FY23
Centre’s fiscal position in FY23 came in line with government’s revised projections for FY23
View Report 
31-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro indicators globally reflected the dual dilemma of growth and inflation
View Report 
30-May-23
BOB Economics | RBI Annual Report: Key macroeconomic highlights
Global economic outlook both for CY23 and CY24 looks benign on account of lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, subdued private investment, and geo economic shifts impacting capital flows and persistent elevated inflation
View Report 
30-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets turned buoyant after the US debt ceiling deal was tentatively struck with final voting expected this week (5th June timeline)
View Report 
29-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Surrounded by optimism around US debt ceiling pushed global indices higher
View Report 
26-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Robust data from US has lent support to still nascent probability of a rate hike in Jun’23
View Report 
25-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
FOMC minutes reflected that members were split on further course of policy
View Report 
24-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data pointed to continued resilience in the economy
View Report 
23-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Comments from Fed officials have raised the possibility of higher US rates
View Report 
22-May-23
BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Impact of withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes
RBI in its notification dated 19 May 2023 has announced gradual withdrawal of 2000 rupee notes from the system; albeit stating that it continues to be a legal tender
View Report 
22-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chairman highlighted that future policy decisions will be on a “meeting to meeting” basis
View Report 
19-May-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR under pressure
After remaining stable for most part of the last few months, INR has come under pressure in the last few sessions
View Report 
19-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 May, fell by 22k from the previous week to 242k (est.: 252k)
View Report 
18-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing data indicates that real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement
View Report 
17-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data from the US shows that consumer demand still remains steady as retail sales rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Apr’23, up from (-) 0.7% in Mar’23
View Report 
16-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As global markets await decision on raising debt ceiling by the US government to avoid default, risks of Fed hiking rates again in Jun’23 have also increased
View Report 
15-May-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 34-month low
WPI inflation continues went into contraction in Apr’23 as it came in at (-) 0.9%, down from 1.3% in Mar’23
View Report 
15-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await decision on raising US’ debt ceiling as the deadline approaches closer
View Report 
12-May-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth slips
CPI print cooled off to 18-month low in Apr’23 to 4.7% against 5.7% in Mar’23
View Report 
12-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro data points to a slowdown
View Report 
11-May-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Is less than 7% the next stop for 10Y yield...?
Fed’s latest decision signalling a prolonged pause has helped ease pressure on both domestic yields and currency
View Report 
11-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data on a sequential basis remained sticky rising by 0.4%, in Apr’23 from 0.1% in Mar’23 (est.: 0.4%)
View Report 
10-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials reflected divergent tone about course of Fed rate
View Report 
09-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amongst major developments has been better than expected exports growth in China by 8.5% in Apr’23 (est.: 8%), albeit slower compared to 14.8% growth in Mar’23, on YoY basis
View Report 
08-May-23
BOB Economics | BoB-ECI: BoB Essential Commodities Index
Inflation indices in India are presented on a monthly basis at both the wholesale and retail levels
View Report 
08-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored US payroll data, which remained buoyant with non- farm payroll rising by 253K in Apr’23 from 165K in Mar’23 and against est.: level of 185K
View Report 
04-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed raised rates by 25bps to 5-5.25%, highest level in over 16-years as it battles stubborn inflation
View Report 
03-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global indices eye rate decisions by global central Banks
View Report 
03-May-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – April 2023
GDP data for Q1CY23 shows that while major economies have avoided a recession (most feared in case of Europe), slowdown in activity still continues
View Report 
02-May-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields traded mixed in Apr’23 influenced by varied macros
View Report 
02-May-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A string of data releases this week is likely to keep investors on their toes
View Report 
29-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
Global economy was once again beginning to stare at the possibility of economic slowdown as fears re-emerged over the possibility of economic recession in US owing to another banking crisis
View Report 
28-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In Q1CY23, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% (est. 2%) from 2.6% in Q4CY22
View Report 
27-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US data showed a mixed picture of the economy
View Report 
26-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears over the global banking crisis were reignited after First Republic Bank reported a sharp decline in its deposits
View Report 
25-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to track earnings report and macro data to gauge future course of monetary policy
View Report 
24-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Stock Indices: Are Macroeconomic variables and Stock Indices related?
The performance of Indian stock market (Nifty) in FY23 when compared with last year has not been up to mark
View Report 
24-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in major economies picked up pace, supported by a recovery in services sector
View Report 
21-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Rate Differential: Update on India and US
India and US 10Y yield differential is seen inching up since March’23
View Report 
21-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest US data shows that existing home sales have again begun to decline in Mar’23 (4.4mn units versus est.: 4.5mn and 4.6mn in Feb’23)
View Report 
20-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s beige book indicates that economic activity remains broadly unchanged
View Report 
19-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Capex climate: Update on investment scenario and its funding
Investment picture in FY23 was fuzzy
View Report 
19-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing starts are seen stabilising on the hopes of Fed pausing its rate hike cycle this year (expected from Jun’23)
View Report 
18-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to strengthen
DXY fell by 0.9% in Apr’23 so far as expectations that the Fed is nearing an end to its rate hike cycle gained momentum
View Report 
18-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data from China points that reopening of the economy has helped GDP growth as it rose by 4.5% (YoY) in Q1CY23 (est.: 4%) from 2.9% in Q4
View Report 
17-Apr-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI continues to decelerate
WPI inflation continues to decelerate at a faster pace than CPI and was down to 1.3% in Mar’23 compared with 3.9% in Feb’23
View Report 
17-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data in the US is giving mixed signals, pointing out that the economy may not be slowing as much as anticipated
View Report 
13-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in the US cooled more than expected to 5% in Mar’23 (est. 5.1%) versus 6% in Feb’23 (YoY), supported by a sharp decline in gasoline prices
View Report 
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth stable
CPI print in Mar’23 got comfort from a favourable statistical base
View Report 
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: IMF flags risks to recovery
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recent report has flagged risks to the global growth recovery
View Report 
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Rate hike off the table; Inflation holds the key
All eyes were around the surprise pause delivered by RBI
View Report 
12-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF lowered its global growth projections for CY23 and CY24 to 2.8% (2.9% earlier) and 3% (3.1%) respectively, on the back of tight monetary policy
View Report 
11-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Amidst muted domestic demand, CPI inflation in China decelerated further to 0.7% in Mar’23 (est. 1%) from 1% in Feb’23
View Report 
10-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market conditions continued to remain strong as nonfarm payrolls rose at a robust rate of 236,000 in Mar’23, after increasing at a solid pace of 326,000 in Feb’23
View Report 
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI surprises with a pause
MPC members today unanimously decided to keep the policy rates unchanged, after hiking continuously since May’22
View Report 
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – March 2023
Global growth is showing signs of slowdown as mixed economic data is being reported from the US and China
View Report 
06-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Disappointing data reading from US (ISM non-manufacturing and ADP employment) continues to signal slowdown in US economy
View Report 
05-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sluggish US data (shrinking manufacturing activity and lower jobs opening) pulled down the dollar index and raised hope of Fed nearing the end of rate tightening cycle
View Report 
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s gauge of inflation data (PCE: down to 5% in Feb’23 against 5.3% in Jan’23) surprised positively
View Report 
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Cost of Borrowing: Small Savings
In the wake of rising interest rates scenario, Government has followed suit by jacking up the rates on small savings schemes for Q11FY24
View Report 
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields fell sharply in Mar’23 following the banking crisis
View Report 
03-Apr-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Further downside for INR likely
Driven by a weakness in DXY, global currencies appreciated
View Report 
31-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Borrowing Calendar: Centre has finely managed its H1FY24 calendar
Centre has come up with its H1FY24 borrowing calendar
View Report 
31-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets monitored key macro data releases and comments from major Fed officials
View Report 
29-Mar-23
BOB Economics | External Sector Review: Trade, CAD and capital flows
India’s external sector is ending FY23 on a much more strong footing than what was expected at the start of the year
View Report 
29-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global currency and bond markets got breather from the recent comments of officials
View Report 
28-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets gained comfort from announcement of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company will purchase all loans and deposits of Silicon Valley Bank
View Report 
27-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Timely actions by global Central Banks has kept the lid over the ongoing challenges in the financial system
View Report 
24-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, BoE raised its key policy rate by 25bps and reiterated that MPC members believe that there is no urgent need to maintain a faster pace of rate hikes
View Report 
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Gold Prices: The glitter of gold
The rupee value of gold touched its record high of Rs 59,233/10gm on 20 Mar 2023 while crossing the Rs 60,000 mark in its intra-day trading
View Report 
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Fuel Dynamics: Splitting the petrol pie?
Volatility in oil prices raises the question on the redistribution of the revenue to different stakeholders including suppliers, Oil marketing companies (OMCs), Centre and States as prices move in different directions
View Report 
23-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike pushing the key policy rate to 4.75-5%
View Report 
21-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Financial markets were relieved as UBS announced its acquisition of Credit Suisse, and global central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank) announced a joint liquidity operation
View Report 
20-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Showing the impact of tight monetary policy conditions, industrial production in the US stagnated in Feb’23 (0%), coming below estimated 0.2% increase and down from 0.3% in Jan’23
View Report 
17-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global financial sector recovered in the last trading session as 11 private US banks including big banks like JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, pledged to provide US$ 30bn support to regional US Bank, First Republic
View Report 
16-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global financial sector received a fresh jolt following the release of annual report of Credit Suisse
View Report 
15-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
The recent turmoil in the financial markets has caused an upheaval in global markets and has also changed to an extent the Fed’s narrative from aggressive monetary tightening as was initially anticipated to slower pace of rate hikes
View Report 
15-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US CPI rose by 0.4% (MoM) in Feb’23, slightly down from 0.5% in Jan’23
View Report 
14-Mar-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down further
WPI inflation has moderated to more than 2-year low of 3.9% in Feb’23 compared with 4.7% in Jan’23
View Report 
14-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global rate hike expectations took a beating prompted by fears of possible financial crisis in the aftermath of the collapse of US bank
View Report 
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | CPI: CPI remains above RBI’s upper band
Headline inflation came in marginally above our expectation, though elevated print continues to add discomfort
View Report 
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | South Asia Economics: Is South Asia on the brink of a crisis?
The recent economic crisis in Pakistan is vividly reminiscent of a similar crisis in Sri Lanka just last year
View Report 
13-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In an effort to revive confidence on the banking system, US regulators announced several measures
View Report 
10-Mar-23
BOB Economics | IIP: Uptick in IIP growth
IIP growth improved to 5.2% in Jan’23 from 4.7% in Dec’22, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output
View Report 
10-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims rose at a faster pace of 21,000 to a 2-month high of 211,000 (est. 195,000) in the week ended 4 Mar 2023
View Report 
09-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Disinvestment: Current target and status
In the current fiscal year, we are noticing that disinvestment receipts are running much behind the revised target also
View Report 
09-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair once again reiterated that future rate hikes will be data dependent, and a faster pace of tightening cannot be ruled out
View Report 
08-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Inflation rearing its ugly head again
Globally, prospects of more rate hikes by major central banks have revived fears of impending recession
View Report 
08-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets went into a tizzy after Fed Chair in his testimony to the Congress hinted at larger rate hikes amidst continued strength in the economy
View Report 
06-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Services activity globally showed revival. Services PMI in India, China, Japan, UK, and Eurozone rose sharply in Feb’23
View Report 
03-Mar-23
BOB Economics | State Borrowing: Taking stock
Actual state borrowing for FYTD’23 (as of 28 Feb 2023) cumulatively continues to be way behind the actual target for the year
View Report 
03-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained watchful of major macro prints globally
View Report 
02-Mar-23
BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – February 2023
Recent economic data points from US and other major economies are showing that global growth remains steady so far
View Report 
02-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed officials (Atlanta and Minneapolis Fed President) again hinted at ‘continued rate hikes’ to control inflation
View Report 
02-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields rose sharply following expectation of a higher terminal Fed Fund rate
View Report 
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR is likely to remain range-bound
Strong macro data from the US coupled with a strong labour market, has raised the likelihood of more rate hikes
View Report 
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Policy Rates: What India-US rates tell us?
A lot of discussion is going on regarding the terminal Fed fund rate
View Report 
01-Mar-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators remained mixed
View Report 
28-Feb-23
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 4.4% in Q3FY23
Ministry has kept India’s growth projection to 7% for FY23 (9.1% in FY22)
View Report 
28-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
High frequency indicators in the US remained mixed
View Report 
27-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Is credit growth tapering off?
Credit growth in India has seen a sharp revival in FY23
View Report 
27-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of macro indicators in the US increased the probability of higher Fed rate in the near term
View Report 
24-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Finance Ministry in its economic outlook noted the global slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months on the back of weak global demand due to monetary tightening
View Report 
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes had a marginally hawkish tone, reaffirming the risk of inflation as a ‘key factor’ and pointed that more hikes are warranted to control it
View Report 
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | GDP Outlook: GDP to grow by 4.6% in Q3FY23
Global economy remains unsettled as it battles the wind of uncertainty posed by geo-political tension and concerns emerging over global growth
View Report 
23-Feb-23
BOB Economics | FY24 Currency Outlook: INR to trade in the range of 82-84/$ in FY24
The trajectory of USD/INR in the next year will be determined by both global as well as domestic macro fundamentals
View Report 
22-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to fret over the future of interest rates ahead of the release of Fed minutes and any future guidance on rate trajectory
View Report 
21-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Bank Liquidity: Can it be a devil in disguise?
Liquidity has been quite a pertinent issue of late when financial conditions remained stringent on account of tightening policy response to higher inflation
View Report 
21-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market on Tuesday woke up to a slower day with the flash manufacturing PMI reading of Japan coming in at 44.9 against 47.2 in January
View Report 
20-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market keenly await the release of Fed minutes scheduled this week, along with the commentary by Fed officials, that is expected to provide further rate guidance
View Report 
17-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest US data shows that labour market continues to remain tight with initial jobless claims for the week ending 11 Feb 2023, falling by 1k to 194k
View Report 
16-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady
Dollar rally resumed once again as bets of more Fed rate hikes reemerged.
View Report 
16-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US retail sales increased by 3% in Jan’23 (est. 1.9%) compared with a decline of 1.1% in Dec’22
View Report 
15-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data for Jan’23 came in at 6.4% versus est.: 6.2% and 6.5% in Dec’22
View Report 
14-Feb-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 2-year low
WPI inflation has slumped to 4.7% in Jan’23 (5% Dec’22), on the back by moderation in fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report 
14-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets await US CPI data for Jan’23, which is expected to come in at 6.2% down from 6.5% in Dec’22
View Report 
13-Feb-23
BOB Economics | CPI: CPI above RBI’s upper band
Discomfort again appeared from an elevated CPI print in Jan’23
View Report 
10-Feb-23
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth moderates
IIP growth eased to 4.3% in Dec’22 from 7.3% in Nov’22, led by a sharp moderation in manufacturing
View Report 
10-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to increase in US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 Feb 2023 by 13k to 196k, from 183k in the previous week
View Report 
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?
The present financial year has been quite unusual in the sense that consumption kept ticking even with inflation being high as the pent up demand phenomenon played out
View Report 
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | FPI Flows: How have FPIs performed this year?
FPI flows into India has largely remained negative this year mirroring a trend seen across EM countries
View Report 
09-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following comments from the Fed Chair, several Fed officials expressed the need for higher rates
View Report 
08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Capex to spur growth
The Union Budget for FY24 focussed on fiscal consolidation and supporting growth through increased capex spending
View Report 
08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI to pause most likely in FY24
RBI has increased its policy rate by 25bps to 6.5%, taking the cumulative rate hike to 250bps since May’22
View Report 
08-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in his latest speech stressed that the process of “disinflation” has begun, and he expects significant moderation in inflation this year
View Report 
07-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the stellar US jobs report, market expectations of Fed rate path have seen a marked shift
View Report 
06-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to a stronger than expected US jobs report
View Report 
04-Feb-23
BOB Economics Research | Monthly Economic Buffet – January 2023
At the beginning of 2023, while there is hope that global economy will slow down less than previously anticipated, however uncertainties still remain
View Report 
03-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR to remain steady
A changing Fed narrative as well as a global risk-on sentiment explain the rally in global currencies in 2023
View Report 
03-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, both BoE and ECB have raised their key policy rates by 50bps
View Report 
02-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In line with market expectations, US Fed has raised its policy rate by 25bps, acknowledging that inflation is cooling down
View Report 
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Union Budget Analysis 2023-24
Budget for FY24 balances between fiscal consolidation, nudging private investment through crowding in, and protecting consumer income from inflationary pressures through tax relief
View Report 
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Budget 2023-24: Quick take – Reinvigorating growth through investment
Union Budget for FY24 is a continuation of the ideology displayed in earlier budgets and has hence tread on similar lines
View Report 
01-Feb-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest macro data points from Europe indicates that while growth in Eurozone and France still remains steady, German economy is showing signs of stress
View Report 
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Economic Survey 2022-23: Leaving no one behind
This year Economic Survey has presented a holistic picture of the impact of government policies on growth and quality of living and also outlined the path to achieve sustainable 7-8% growth per annum over the medium term
View Report 
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields edged down as markets are now expecting that Fed is probably nearing its terminal rate, as it got breather from softening of core PCE data
View Report 
31-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF has raised the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.9% from 2.7% estimated earlier
View Report 
30-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors will be eyeing Fed’s rate decision scheduled later this week
View Report 
27-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets monitored slew of economic data releases
View Report 
25-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Capex: Spending by states
With Union budget in focus, and expectations of a higher capital outlay by the central government to boost investment, we here analyse the role of state governments in the overall public sector spending
View Report 
25-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings for Jan’23 of major economies remained in contraction territory
View Report 
24-Jan-23
BOB Economics | FY24 Budget Preview: Balance between populism and consolidation
Despite this being last full budget before the elections, budget for FY24 is unlikely to be a populist one
View Report 
24-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Equity market edged up while there was broad sell off in the bond and currency market
View Report 
23-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators again provided discomfort with US existing home sales falling by 1.5% to 4.02mn in Dec’22 against 4.08mn in Nov’22
View Report 
20-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Signs of slowdown in US economy became more visible with dip in housing starts (1.38 mn, a 5-month low from 1.4 mn in Nov’22) and permits data, following disappointing retail sales and industrial production
View Report 
18-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoJ in its widely anticipated meeting unanimously moved against the tide and continued with the ultra-low rates
View Report 
17-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global leaders at the ongoing WEF at Davos shared concerns that likelihood of global recession remains imminent in CY23, offsetting optimism of China reopening
View Report 
16-Jan-23
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 22-month low
WPI inflation slipped down to 5% in Dec’22 from 5.8% in Nov’22
View Report 
16-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed owing to easing of CPI print, prompted dollar to drop to its lowest level since Jun’22
View Report 
13-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Disinvestment: More a case of misses
Ahead of the Union Budget there are many conjectures about the disinvestment figure of capital receipts, to get an idea about how the fiscal deficit will be financed
View Report 
13-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US inflation declined by 0.1% in Dec’22 (est. 0%) from +0.1% in Nov’22 (MoM)
View Report 
12-Jan-23
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth improves
Comfort came in from both India’s growth and inflation print
View Report 
12-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
CPI inflation in China accelerated to 1.8% in Dec’22 (est. 1.8%) from 1.6% in Nov’22, led by higher food prices
View Report 
11-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bolstering the case of a global recession, World Bank slashed its global GDP forecast for 2023 to 1.7% from 3% earlier
View Report 
10-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Increased expectations of a softer stance from the Fed drove global markets
View Report 
09-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Financial Stability Report: Key highlights
Despite an uncertain global macros, FSR highlighted that Indian economy has remained fairly resilient
View Report 
09-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in Dec’22, slowing from 256,000 additions in Nov’22
View Report 
06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | GDP: FY23 growth estimated at 7%
NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 7% in FY23 growth from 8.7% in FY22
View Report 
06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: All eyes on the Union Budget
With global growth slowing (US housing sector/PMIs, China production/retail sales, Eurozone PMIs), domestic growth is also giving mixed signals
View Report 
06-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Labour market in the US still remains tight with ADP employment showing that 235k jobs were added in Dec’22 versus est.: 153k and 127k in Nov’22
View Report 
05-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Investment Activity: Is investment set to pick up
The New Year has started with positive news emerging on the investment side
View Report 
05-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes indicate that all members agree to ease the pace of rate hikes in CY23, as rapid tightening of monetary policy is showing visible impact on economic growth
View Report 
04-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Tight monetary conditions across globe are beginning to shows its impact on real economy
View Report 
03-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – December 2022
As 2022 ends economic challenges stand ready for major global economies
View Report 
03-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Manufacturing PMIs for China and Eurozone indicate that activity continued to remain in contraction in Dec’22 as well
View Report 
02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
In Dec’22, bond yields globally changed direction and went for an upswing as Federal Reserve now expects a higher terminal rate at 5.1%
View Report 
02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Where is INR headed in 2023?
In 2022, INR depreciated by 10.1% led by a rally in dollar
View Report 
02-Jan-23
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s official PMIs indicate that both manufacturing (47.8 in Dec’22 versus est.: 47 and 48 in Nov’22) and non-manufacturing (41.6 in Dec’22 versus est.: 45 and 46.7 in Nov’22) activity contracted much more than expected in Dec’22
View Report 
30-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Jobless claims data in the US remained in line with expectation, despite remaining higher than previous week
View Report 
29-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In lacklustre trading week, global markets remained cautious over impact of China’s reopening
View Report 
28-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to remain cautious over China’s reopening and its spill over impact
View Report 
27-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets got breather from China’s removal of Covid-19 restrictions for inbound travellers
View Report 
26-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Asian markets were rattled over news reports that majority of China’s cities are predicting a Covid-19 peak in Jan’23
View Report 
23-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Robust economic data from the US including revision of US GDP for Q3CY22 upwards, lower jobless claims raised likelihood of more rate hikes by Fed
View Report 
22-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market digested mixed news of upbeat US consumer confidence, corporate earnings and subdued home sales data
View Report 
21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | IPO Study: Update on performance of IPO market
While the size of the IPO market remains small in CYTD22 so far at ~Rs 55,000 crore versus Rs 1.2 lakh crore
View Report 
21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Inflation Impact: Does inflation have any association with sales?
Global economy has been witnessing upheavals due to uncertainty posed by factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict which resulted in supply constraints thus hampering global value chains
View Report 
21-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Finally leaving the divergence path, BoJ joined the wagon along with other global central banks after it shocked the global market by widening the long term yield control thereby allowing long term rates to rise more
View Report 
20-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Effective Tax Rate: Is there a scope for lowering corporate tax rate further?
In Sep’19, the Union Government in a surprise move slashed corporate tax rate on both existing and new domestic manufacturing units
View Report 
20-Dec-22
BOB Economics Research | Return on Investment: ‘T’ has not been the season of much gain
CY22 has been a tumultuous year
View Report 
20-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growing risk of recession continued to weigh in on investors as they began the pre-holiday week with early signs of economic softness adding to the negative sentiments
View Report 
19-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of global economic slowdown resurfaced to the shore once again after global Central Banks kept their foot firm on the rate hike pedal
View Report 
18-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: What is the real interest rate?
When conjecturing the direction of central bank policy rate, we all know that inflation is important as they have a mandate to target this variable
View Report 
16-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Both ECB and BoE hiked policy rates by 50bps, in line with expectations
View Report 
15-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s next for INR
Driven by a sharper than expected moderation is US CPI, dollar eased, leading to gains in most major currencies
View Report 
15-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed raised rates by an expected 50bps
View Report 
14-Dec-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI at 21-month low
WPI inflation has slumped to 5.8% in Nov’22 (8.4% Oct’22), on the back of broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report 
14-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets cheered softer than expected inflation print from the US, which suggests that the terminal Fed rate may not be as high as expected earlier
View Report 
13-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Expect fiscal deficit of 6.6-6.7% for FY23
Central government has recently presented the first batch of supplementary grants
View Report 
13-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained rather subdued awaiting US inflation report and Fed policy outcome
View Report 
12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI cools, IIP growth falters
India’s headline inflation cooled off to an 11-month low of 5.9% in Nov’22 from 6.8% in Oct’22
View Report 
12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Credit Growth: Is credit growth impacted by repo rate changes?
There is often discussion on whether or not monetary transmission percolates to the real sector of the economy through change in the pace of growth in credit
View Report 
12-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data showed that while PPI inflation in the US moderated to 0.3%in Nov’22 (same as Oct’22), it increased more than market estimates of 0.2%, on a MoM basis
View Report 
09-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India facing headwinds
Risks of a global recession have increased, as shown by macro data points from both US (housing sector) and China (trade, production, PMIs)
View Report 
09-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Weak demand from China has contributed to substantial decline in commodity prices, and has even to led 2nd consecutive dip in China’s PPI, by -1.3% in Nov’22, unchanged from Oct’22
View Report 
08-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
High interest rates in the US continue to take a toll on the housing market as mortgage application for the week ending 2 Dec 2022 fell by another 1.9%, following 0.8% decline in the previous week
View Report 
07-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No surprises – Another 25bps rate hike possibly in Feb and then pause
RBI’s policy remains in line with expectation
View Report 
07-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Showing the impact of a stronger dollar, US exports fell to 7-month low (-0.7%) in Oct’22 while imports rose by 0.6%, leading to widening of the trade deficit
View Report 
06-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of more rate hikes by Fed daunted market sentiments
View Report 
05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: What to expect in the credit policy
The credit policy to be announced on the 7th of December is important for several reasons
View Report 
05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Impact of monetary policy on rates
A nagging issue when conducting monetary policy is to ascertain whether or not the transmission mechanism is effective
View Report 
05-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest data for US labour market shows that conditions continue to remain tighter than expected, as non-farm payrolls rose by 263k in Nov’22 versus consensus estimate of 200k, but additions have slowed from previous month’s 284k
View Report 
02-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro data points globally showed elevated growth concerns
View Report 
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Where is bank credit growing?
Growth in Bank credit has accelerated during the financial year which is a positive sign of economic activity picking up though banks are challenged by a slower growth in deposits
View Report 
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR strengthened in Nov’22
Dollar demand waned and other global currencies edged up as Fed Chair hinted at tapering the pace of rate hikes starting from Dec’22
View Report 
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond yields broadly went into a downswing in Nov’22, a situation not seen in the past few months
View Report 
01-Dec-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Key event has been Fed Chair’s speech which had a dovish bias
View Report 
30-Nov-22
BOB Economics | GDP: GDP growth slows to 6.3% in Q2FY23
On the back of base effect, India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.3% in Q2FY23 (13.5% in Q1)
View Report 
30-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global macro indicators showed signs of stress
View Report 
29-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity indices broadly inched down as Fed officials (James Bullard and John Williams) hinted that higher rates are likely to prevail in CY23 and CY24 as well, to bring inflation to the targeted level
View Report 
28-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continued to monitor developments in China’s economy where protests emerged over Covid-19 restrictions
View Report 
25-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Dovish signals by Fed pushed global indices higher
View Report 
24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Trade: Trends in India’s trade and impact of global economy
India’s trade deficit in FYTD23 has surged to US$ 175bn as of Oct’22 compared with US$ 94bn in FYTD22, driven by faster pace of import growth (due to revival in domestic activity and higher commodity prices)
View Report 
24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Coverage: Falling interest cover more due to declining profits
Interest rate cycle has taken a reversal if we compare H1 of FY23 to H1 of FY22.
View Report 
24-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity indices edged up and there was an increased appetite for sovereign bonds as well
View Report 
23-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Chinese economy once again grappled with the possibility of imposing restrictions with the flare up of Covid-19 cases
View Report 
22-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A rebound in Covid-19 cases in China nudged the authorities to reconsider imposing lockdown restrictions
View Report 
21-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors gear up for the Fed’s minutes scheduled to release later this week in order to gauge the interest rate trajectory after some officials made hawkish comments
View Report 
18-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed’s James Bullard advocated for more rate hikes stating that the rate hikes so far “had only limited effect on observed inflation”
View Report 
17-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Corporate Results: How have companies fared in Q2FY23?
Our analysis of the financial performance of an aggregate sample of 1,917 companies shows that net sales continue to increase, despite witnessing slight moderation
View Report 
17-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Data from US painted a mixed picture
View Report 
16-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In further signs that inflationary pressures in the US may have peaked, US PPI rose less than expected in Oct’22
View Report 
15-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR takes a breather
Buoyed by hopes of a likely Fed pivot, global currencies appreciated against the dollar in Nov’22
View Report 
15-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets reacted to comments from Fed’s Christopher Wallace who cautioned the “endpoint” of rates is still “a ways off”
View Report 
14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | CPI: Inflation begins to cool down
Headline CPI moderated to 6.8% in Oct’22 from 7.4% in Sep’22, led by food, fuel and core inflation
View Report 
14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools down to 19-month low
WPI cools off further (5th consecutive month) to 8.4% in Oct’22(10.7% Sep’22), supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report 
14-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF recently warned of a gloomier outlook for the world economy than was anticipated in the WEO (Oct’22)
View Report 
11-Nov-22
BOB Economics | IIP: IIP growth scales up
Industrial growth increased by 3.1% in Sep’22 (-0.7% in Aug’22)
View Report 
11-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI for Oct’22 fell to a 9-month low of 0.4%, lower than estimated 0.6% and also down from upwardly revised 0.6% in Sep’22
View Report 
10-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
With rising Covid-19 cases in China, and PPI falling for the 1st time in 2 years, fears of global growth slowdown have increased
View Report 
09-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest global macro prints further indicate that there might be an impending global growth slowdown
View Report 
07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Global growth slowing down; India steady
Stubbornly high inflation print worldwide has nudged global central banks on rate hike spree
View Report 
07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Small savings versus bank deposits
After keeping rates stagnant for almost 2-years, the government recently announced a hike in interest rates for small savings scheme
View Report 
07-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equities, currencies, and bond yields ended higher
View Report 
04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Quarterly Results: Update on Q2FY23 performance
Net sales of companies remained robust, despite slight moderation in Q2FY23 compared to the same period of previous year
View Report 
04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Fuel & Freight: What freight data shows
Often when we talk of supply chain bottleneck, an indicator which comes across our mind is freight cost
View Report 
04-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and bond markets witnessed a sell-off and currencies depreciated
View Report 
03-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its recent policy raised rate by another 75bps for the fourth time in a row, taking the Federal fund rate to 3.75-4%, highest since CY08
View Report 
02-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets are in a cautious mood ahead of the Fed policy decision
View Report 
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Interest Rates: Pace of deposit and lending rates in H1FY23
In the given landscape, the Central Bank has been on policy tightening spree with liquidity crunched up
View Report 
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Sectoral deployment of credit
RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Sep’22
View Report 
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global bond market was in a trap trying to untangle growth-inflation dynamics
View Report 
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Focus on Fed
INR depreciated by 0.5% in the last fortnight even as DXY retreated from a 20-year high
View Report 
01-Nov-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Sell off in the global currency and bond market was seen ahead of Fed’s policy decision, where a 75bps rate hike is expected
View Report 
31-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation in Europe indicates that prices continue to remain elevated in Oct’22 in both Germany (10.4% versus 10%) and France (6.2% versus 5.6%)
View Report 
28-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US GDP rose more than expected in Q3CY22 to 2.6% (est. +2.3%), ending two consecutive quarters of negative growth
View Report 
27-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Financial Savings: Bank Deposits or Mutual Funds?
It has been a matter of debate whether Bank deposits are still the preferred choice of instrument of financial savings
View Report 
27-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US housing market showed signs of stress as high interest rates start to bite
View Report 
25-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash composite PMIs of UK (21-month low), Eurozone (23-month low) and US (2-month low) signal further moderation in economic activity
View Report 
21-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns over aggressive rate hike by Fed and fears of recession kept markets on edge and pushed global yields higher
View Report 
20-Oct-22
BOB Economics | State Finances: Cash imbalances of states
In the current fiscal year, we have noticed that there are a number of states which have been consistently using RBI’s cash flow management facilities in order to meet their fiscal commitments
View Report 
20-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in the recently released ‘Beige Book’ noted that the economy has expanded modestly but the conditions remained varied by districts
View Report 
19-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as concerns of slowdown in Germany kept markets on the edge, the investor sentiment index (ZEW) turned out to be less pessimistic than anticipated (-59.2 from -61.2 in Sep’22)
View Report 
18-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK Government’s reversal of previous fiscal policy measures and early signs of markets bottoming out, cheered investors and pushed the indices in green
View Report 
17-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR finds support
Macro data from the US reinstated market expectations of a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next meeting
View Report 
17-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
On the back of growing inflationary pressure (higher than expected US CPI), market
analysts expect a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the next policy meet
View Report 
14-Oct-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI cools further
WPI for Sep’22 eased to 18-month low of 10.7% from 12.4% in Aug’22, supported by broad-based moderation in food, fuel and manufactured product inflation
View Report 
14-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflationary pressures continued to mount globally as evident from CPI readings of US, Germany and more recently, China
View Report 
12-Oct-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: A double whammy for the economy
Headline CPI rose to 7.4% in Sep’22 from 7% in Aug’22, led by food and core inflation
View Report 
12-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
While retaining its growth forecast for CY22 at 3.2%, IMF cut the global growth forecast for CY23 to 2.7% (2.9% in Jul’22)
View Report 
11-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Equity and bond markets witnessed considerable sell off and currencies depreciated
View Report 
10-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Unemployment rate in the US edged down to 3.5% in Sep’22 from 3.7% in Aug’22, indicating tighter labour market conditions
View Report 
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: India’s growth holding ground
With major Central Banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) on course to continue hiking rates aggressively, global yields have inched up and fears of global recession have increased
View Report 
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Credit Trends: Will credit growth slow down due to repo rate hikes?
After keeping repo rate unchanged at a record low of 4% for 2 years, RBI announced a 40 bps hike in repo rate in May’22
View Report 
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Investment Cycle: Investment may start picking up
There could be some good news based on the new investment announcements made by companies in the first half of the year
View Report 
07-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 29k to 219k (est.: 205k) for the week ended 1 Oct 2022
View Report 
06-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro prints for the US indicate that economy is not slowing as much as feared
View Report 
04-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing draw to a close
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon has been above normal and stands at 6% above LPA at the end of the monsoon period for this year (2022).
View Report 
04-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global manufacturing activity weakened further as indicated by muted PMI prints in US, Eurozone, Japan and India
View Report 
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Household Finances: Are we saving less?
There is considerable euphoria relating to consumption, and the relentlessly high GST collection numbers is a reflection of this phenomenon
View Report 
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – September 2022
Major global Central Banks have announced steep policy hikes in Sep’22, and have vowed to remain hawkish as long as inflation levels remains elevated
View Report 
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Bond Market Round-up – September 2022
Financial tightening continued globally which led to sell-off in the bond market
View Report 
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Is 82 the new 80?
The last fortnight was marked by sharp volatility in the global markets, with the foreign exchange market being particularly badly hit
View Report 
03-Oct-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation remains an ongoing concern with US core PCE deflator inching up by 0.6% (est.: 0.5%) in Aug’22 from 0% in Jul’22, and CPI in Eurozone rising to 10% (est.: 9.7%) from 9.1% in Jul’22
View Report 
30-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy: No new surprise – Another 50bps rate hike
RBI’s policy was in line with expectations
View Report 
30-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, signalling strength in the labour market
View Report 
29-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
BoE intervened to arrest the financial volatility in the market by announcing “purchases of long dated gilts in a temporary and targeted way” for the next 2 weeks
View Report 
28-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
A slew of Fed officials reiterated the hawkish commentary of the central bank, with the Chicago Fed President stating that interest rates are likely to increase to a range of 4.5%-4.75%
View Report 
27-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: RBI to hike again
In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 30 Sep 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 50bps
View Report 
27-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Volatility in the global markets continued as investors braced for further rate hikes
View Report 
26-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Consumption Demand: A silver lining or a dark cloud
Consumption, with a major share in GDP is an important indicator when talking about how growth has fared
View Report 
26-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global market rout deepened further as investors assessed the increased likelihood of a recession
View Report 
23-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR falls to a record low – From being best to worst performing currency
Global currencies depreciated sharply yesterday amidst a hawkish commentary from Fed
View Report 
23-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global Central Banks sprung in action as synchronized monetary tightening was noted across the globe, with other Central Banks catching up to US Fed
View Report 
22-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed delivered 3rd consecutive rate hike (highest since CY08) after it raised the rates by 75bps hike to a new target range of 3%-3.25%
View Report 
21-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Yields: Short-term yield spikes
TBill yields are witnessing quite a bit of volatility off late
View Report 
21-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
The Swedish Central Bank surprised the markets by hiking policy rates by 100bps in order to combat inflation and heightened the possibility of more hikes
View Report 
20-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 7% above LPA as of 19 Sep 2022
View Report 
20-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Ahead of the key rate hike by Fed, China kept the benchmark rate unchanged today making a clear case of policy divergence across the globe
View Report 
19-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: All eyes on Fed
Dollar continued its upward momentum with the DXY index hovering close to a 20-year high
View Report 
19-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank has recently warned of global recession in CY23 as global central banks are on a rate hike spree, to combat inflation
View Report 
16-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Fuel Taxes: Understanding the economics of fuel taxes
Fuel taxes have been a contentious issue in India especially at a time when inflation has been increasing
View Report 
16-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global currencies depreciated while sell off in the bond market continued as market is fully pricing in a 75bps rate hike by Fed in the coming policy
View Report 
15-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained cautious tracking major macro data releases of different economies
View Report 
14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Telecom Study: Telecom sector & 5G Auction
India has the second-largest telecom market in the world with the country registering a strong subscriber base over the last decade
View Report 
14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI provides relief
WPI for Aug’22 has come in at 12.4%, down from the peak of 13.9% in Jul'22, supported by softening global commodity prices
View Report 
14-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI data inched up by 0.1% in Aug’22 against est. 0.1% decline, on MoM basis
View Report 
13-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equities and currencies rallied ahead of US CPI print which is expected to moderate slightly to 8% in Aug’22 (8.5% in Jul’22)
View Report 
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI hardens, IIP growth falters
Headline CPI rose to 7% in Aug’22 from 6.7% in Jul’22. Food inflation rose sharply to 7.6% from 6.7% in Jul’22 led by vegetables, fruit and milk and pulses
View Report 
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | IPO Study: How has the IPO market performed?
2021 was the year for the equity market where we witnessed high IPO issuances as companies accessed this avenue for raising funds
View Report 
12-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are cautious ahead of the CPI print of major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and India)
View Report 
09-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 5% above LPA as of 8 Sep 2022
View Report 
09-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB in its latest policy meet, raised its key rates by 75bps, marking it as the largest hike on record
View Report 
08-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed’s Beige Book suggests that elevated inflationary pressures, higher mortgage rates, labour and supply shortages are hampering growth
View Report 
07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Bonds: Corporate bonds market in India
With the growing importance of investment for higher GDP growth, there is an urgent need for alternative sources of financing; and corporate bonds market can play an important role here
View Report 
07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Domestic macros appear to be insulated
Last month, major market mover has been the Jackson Hole Symposium
View Report 
07-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US’ Aug’22 non-manufacturing ISM index came in at 56.9, higher than estimated 55.4 and also up from previous month’s 56.7
View Report 
06-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Latest services PMIs for major economies indicate slowdown in activity in Aug’22
View Report 
05-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Financial Soundness: Comparative study on global financial soundness indicators
The study is based on IMF’s Financial Soundness Indicators database
View Report 
05-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US labour market data showed that non-farm payrolls rose by 315k in Aug’22, higher than est. 298k, but lower than previous months’ 526k
View Report 
02-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – August 2022
Following the statements by major central bankers at Jackson Hole, it is expected that global monetary conditions will continue to tighten, until inflation is brought down
View Report 
02-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 232,000 suggesting continued labour market strength
View Report 
01-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown steepest increase, post Jackson Hole conference
View Report 
01-Sep-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained volatile amidst increased fears of a global recession
View Report 
30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Market Performance: India versus global equity markets
In CY22 so far, we have observed that Indian equity markets (both Sensex and Nifty) have performed relatively better than other major global equity markets
View Report 
30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: What’s in store for INR
Volatility returned to the global markets this week driven largely by a more hawkish than expected commentary from the Fed Chair
View Report 
30-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets remained volatile following Fed Chair’s speech which was more hawkish than market expectations
View Report 
29-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair in a highly anticipated speech hinted at further rate hikes to curb inflation, while acknowledging that this may translate into slower growth and softer labour-market conditions
View Report 
26-Aug-22
BOB Economics | State Budgets: State finances in FY22 – A recap
In order to analyse the health of state finances in FY22 and FY23, we selected a sample of 21 major states for which the data was readily available
View Report 
26-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors are cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium
View Report 
25-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
For the cumulative period, South West Monsoon is 9% above LPA as of 24 Aug 2022
View Report 
25-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Growth and inflationary concerns continued to bother global economy
View Report 
24-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Housing loans: Study on housing loan market in India
The real estate sector plays an important role in the economy, especially true for a developing economy like India with a huge population, implying an ever increasing demand for housing
View Report 
24-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings reflected muted economic activity in the US (composite reading 27-month low) and Eurozone (18-month low)
View Report 
23-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Industry and Capacity Utilization: Turnover to Asset ratio FY22
India’s economy has grown by 8.7% in FY22 after contracting by 6.6% in FY21
View Report 
23-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global equity and currency indices continued to slide amidst energy woes in Europe
View Report 
22-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors are anticipating hawkish comments from Fed Chair at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium
View Report 
22-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
IMD had predicted the second half of the South-West monsoon will continue to receive normal rainfall, same as the first half
View Report 
19-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Led by uncertainty over the pace of future rate hike by Fed, kept the investors on the edge as they looked for further cues
View Report 
18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Banking Q1FY23 Review: Financial highlights of banks
We have analysed the financial performance of 35 banks of which 12 are Public, 19 Private Sector Banks (PVBs) and remaining 4 are Small Finance Banks
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18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Have tables turned?
After a rather volatile period of 2 months, the global currency markets attained some semblance of stability in the first fortnight of August
View Report 
18-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors monitored US Fed minutes which signalled that Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in order to rein in inflation
View Report 
17-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Construction of US housing starts dropped to its lowest level since Feb’21 to 1.44mn units in Jul’22 from 1.55mn units in Jun’22, signalling the impact of the soaring mortgage rates
View Report 
12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI moderates, IIP growth weakens
Headline CPI cooled off to 6.9% in Jul’22 from 7% in Jun’22
View Report 
12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
As South-West monsoon picked up pace, resulting in cumulative rainfall of 8% above LPA as of 12 Aug 2022
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12-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Following the dip in US CPI, recent data shows that US PPI also cooled off in Jul’22
View Report 
11-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US CPI rose by 8.5% in Jul’22 versus est.: 8.7% and 9.1% in Jun’22, supported by ~20% decline in gasoline prices
View Report 
10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: RBI frontloads rate hike
In its latest policy, RBI hiked repo rate by 50bps taking the cumulative rate hike in repo rate to 140bps in the current cycle
View Report 
10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Interest Cover: What does interest cover of India Inc. indicate?
We have in this study examined financial performance of 3180 companies (excluding financial companies) and noted the trend in interest coverage ratio defined as Operating profit to Interest
View Report 
10-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors cautiously await US CPI print due later in the day today, which is expected to have eased to 8.7% in Jul’22 from 9.1% in Jun’22
View Report 
08-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Better than expected macro prints in US, Europe and Asia boosted investor sentiments (yields and crude closed higher)
View Report 
06-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
Advancement of South-West monsoon has resulted in cumulative rainfall at 6% above LPA as of 5 Aug 2022
View Report 
05-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: RBI front-loading rate hikes
RBI continued with hawkish policy as repo rate was hiked (3rd time in a row) by 50bps and is back to the pre-pandemic level
View Report 
05-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Bank of England (BoE) raised policy rates by an expected 50bps (biggest rate hike since CY95), as it attempts to tame skyrocketing inflation
View Report 
04-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Strong macro data from the US lifted market sentiments globally
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03-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Policy Rates: Is there a link between Indian and US interest rates?
It has been observed that global monetary policy rates tend to move in tandem, with the US Fed generally leading the global rate cycle
View Report 
03-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Possibility of an escalation in US-China conflict amidst US House of Representative Speaker’s visit to Taiwan, impacted investor sentiments
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02-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of a global recession surfaced again as PMIs showed moderation in manufacturing activity in Europe, US and China amidst muted demand and high inflation
View Report 
01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
South-West monsoon has registered above normal rainfall at 8% (above LPA) till 31 Jul 2022
View Report 
01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – July 2022
High frequency indicators (PMIs, consumer/business sentiment index) in US, China and Eurozone are pointing towards slowdown in economic activity
View Report 
01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have moderated in the current fortnight with Germany and US 10Y yield falling as much as 32 and 27bps respectively
View Report 
01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: INR stages a comeback
Global currencies edged up against a weaker dollar
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01-Aug-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Euro Area GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2CY22 (QoQ) beating expectations of a 0.2% increase
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29-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
South-West monsoon picked up pace and registered above normal rainfall at 9% above LPA till 29 Jul 2022
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29-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed Chair’s commentary and subdued Q2CY22 GDP print of the US reaffirmed investors view that aggressive monetary tightening cycle will ease off going forward
View Report 
28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Employment Study: Job scene in India Inc.
FY22 was a year when the economy got back on its feet
View Report 
28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | FOMC: US Fed hikes rate again
In line with market expectations, US Fed hiked policy rate by 75 bps in its latest meeting
View Report 
28-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In a move, that will reflect fastest tightening of monetary policy since the previous Fed Chair, Paul Volcker in 1980s, FOMC in Jul’22 unanimously hiked policy rates for 2nd time in a row by 75bps
View Report 
27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Investment Scenario & Funding: Investment in FY23 started on a weaker note
Investment climate in India in Q1FY23 started on a weaker tone with data pointing towards sharp drop in new project announcements relative to Q4FY22.
View Report 
27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | IMF World Economic Outlook: Uncertain and Gloomy
After recovering quickly in 2021 from the pandemic induced downturn in CY20, the global economy is on the path of uncertainty and a slowdown in CY22 and CY23
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27-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
IMF in the World Economic Outlook has downgraded global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.2% in CY22, stating the “outlook has darkened significantly since Apr’22”
View Report 
26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and sowing progress
With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 11% above LPA till 25 Jul 2022
View Report 
26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Indian Economy Prognosis: What to expect in FY23
FY23 has begun on a rather sombre note for the Indian economy with mixed signals
View Report 
26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Commodity Trends: Easing pressure on commodity prices
After sharp increase in global commodity prices, post the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, prices have witnessed a dip in the last month
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26-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors braced for an aggressive rate hike by Fed as they anticipate atleast 50-75bps hike inorder to keep soaring inflation in check
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25-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors looked for cues as concerns over global economic downturn kept market on the edge
View Report 
21-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
UK’s CPI print rose to its fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in Jun’22, on YoY basis, against expectation of 9.3% and 9.1% in May’22, led by food and fuel
View Report 
20-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Markets remained cautious awaiting ECB’s policy decision where even a 50bps rate hike cannot be ruled out considering the Jun’22 CPI inflation print is still elevated at 8.6%
View Report 
19-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
INR continued to hit fresh record low and just shy of the US$ 80/bbl mark
View Report 
18-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Bonds' Wrap: Fortnightly Review
Global sovereign 10Y yields have shown moderation across the board as recession fears outweighed inflationary concerns
View Report 
18-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Macro prints in the US remained mixed with retail sales gaining ground and industrial production remaining muted in Jun’22
View Report 
15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing
With the advancement of South-West monsoon, rainfall is above normal at 14% above LPA till 15 Jul 2022
View Report 
15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: More depreciation inevitable
Global currencies depreciated against the dollar as a hotter than expected US inflation report drove the currency higher
View Report 
15-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Recent data from the US (PPI, jobless claims) indicates that while prices remain elevated, labour market is signalling slowdown
View Report 
14-Jul-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI begins to cool down
WPI for Jun'22 has come in at 15.2%, down from the peak of 15.9% in May'22, supported by softening global commodity prices
View Report 
14-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Slew of macro-economic prints (US CPI, China trade, central bank decisions) guided the markets
View Report 
13-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Even as concerns of a global recession are spiralling, both BoK and RBNZ have raised their respective policy rates by 50bps today
View Report 
12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | CPI and IIP: CPI sticky, IIP inched up
Headline CPI remained sticky at 7% in Jun’22 and ending Q1FY23 at 7.3% against RBI’s estimate of 7.3%
View Report 
12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Depreciating INR: a major concern
The most notable fact off late has been depreciating INR which is touching record low every other day
View Report 
12-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
In the data heavy week, investors remain cautious as they await CPI print of US (expected to have increased further in Jun’22 from 8.6% in May’22), and GDP prints of China and UK
View Report 
11-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US non-farm payroll numbers rose more than expected by 372k (est.: 265k), signalling tighter labour market conditions and building the case for aggressive rate hike by Fed
View Report 
08-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monsoon Update: Monsoon and Sowing
Government of India in Jun’22 had hiked the MSP of Kharif crops with the objective to provide remunerative prices and encourage crop diversification
View Report 
08-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks inched up amidst an improvement in risk-sentiment
View Report 
07-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed minutes highlighted that the MPC members were concerned about inflation getting “entrenched” and hence batted for a “more restrictive” monetary policy even though it might impinge on growth
View Report 
06-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Economic activity in the Eurozone as measured by the composite PMI, slumped to a 16-month low, further fuelling risks of a global recession
View Report 
05-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global risk sentiment improved on reports that US President is likely to rollback tariffs on certain Chinese imports to check surging inflation
View Report 
04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – June 2022
Fears of slowdown in global growth have intensified over the past month as multiple high frequency indictors are showing strains of stress (PMIs, commodity prices)
View Report 
04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee to remain under pressure
Increasing risks of global recession drove global currencies lower
View Report 
04-Jul-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Risks of a global recession intensified further amidst disappointing manufacturing PMI data from major global economies
View Report 
30-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors monitored the looming threat of recession as inflation continues to remain a challenge for central banks
View Report 
29-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors looked for cues as uncertainties clouded global markets
View Report 
28-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Investors continue to monitor the ongoing developments in the G-7 meet
View Report 
27-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global commodity prices took a breather owing to easing fears around inflation adding to the possibility of less aggressive monetary tightening by Fed
View Report 
24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Global Inflation: Global inflation boiling up
Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown on account of Covid-19 and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, supply check bottlenecks have ensued
View Report 
24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | FPI Flows: What is driving FPI flows?
FPI flows into India have seen a sharp decline in recent times
View Report 
24-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Flash PMI readings of major economies reignited concerns surrounding global growth slowdown
View Report 
23-Jun-22
BOB Economics Research | Forex Cover: Forex risk of India Inc.
The recent decline in the rupee has ignited concerns on the external sector stability of the economy
View Report 
23-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fears of inflationary concerns and recession again took the centre stage
View Report 
22-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US macro prints showed another round of weakness with existing home sales print dropping to its 2-year low in May’22
View Report 
21-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns of elevated inflation print predominated with Germany’s producer prices (PPI) rising to yet another record high of 33.6% in May’22
View Report 
20-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Concerns of global growth slowdown aggravated with US industrial production print remaining weak in May’22
View Report 
17-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Rate hike spree of global central banks continued, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) still remaining an exception
View Report 
16-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Fuel Prices: Do states have space to lower VAT on petrol?
With rise in international oil prices in the last year retail price of petrol has moved up ever since the government linked the base price to global trends i.e. April onwards
View Report 
16-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US Fed in its latest meeting has raised the policy rates by 75bps, as inflation continues to soar
View Report 
15-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global investors remain cautious as elevated inflation prints increase the risk of aggressive rate hikes by central banks
View Report 
14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | WPI: WPI remains elevated
Slightly higher than our expectations (forecast of 15%), WPI for May'22 has come in at 15.9%, up from 15.1% in Apr'22
View Report 
14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Rupee slips to a record-low: What to make of it?
Indian rupee slipped to a fresh record low of 78.04/$ yesterday amidst a resurgence in dollar strength
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14-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stock markets ended in red and 10Y yields inched up, as investors fear more aggressive rate hike by US Fed to tame the inflation
View Report 
13-Jun-22
BOB Economics | CPI: Favourable base supported CPI
Headline CPI in May’22 edged down from its current peak of 7.8% (last seen in Oct’14) to 7%, supported by favourable base
View Report 
13-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
As a surprise to the markets, US CPI in May’22 rose to 8.6% (est.: 8.3%) from 8.3% in Apr’22, thus reaching the highest mark since Dec’81
View Report 
10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | IIP: Industrial output climbs to 8-month high
India’s industrial output expanded at a much faster pace to 7.1% in Apr’22 (2.2% in Mar’22) on the back of base effect
View Report 
10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Chartbook: Central banks on war footing
With inflation remaining elevated across countries (US, EU, UK), global central banks are increasingly adopting a hawkish stance
View Report 
10-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
ECB announced ending its asset purchase programme from 1 Jul 2022 and also signalled a 25bps rate hike in Jul’22
View Report 
09-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
After World Bank, OECD too cut global growth forecast for CY22 to 3% from 4.5%
View Report 
08-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Review: Tackling inflation a priority
RBI’s hawkish policy is focussed largely on heightened inflationary concerns
View Report 
08-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
World Bank sharply downgraded global growth forecast to 2.9% in CY22 (5.7% in CY21) versus 4.1% estimated earlier
View Report 
07-Jun-22
BOB Economics | FY22 Review: Financial highlights of banks
We have analysed the financial performance of 28 banks of which 12 are Public Sector Banks (PSBs) and the balance 16 Private Sector Banks (PVBs)
View Report 
07-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global stocks were mostly higher as China relaxed Covid-19 curbs in Beijing, thus easing supply-chain concerns
View Report 
06-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monetary Policy Expectations: More rate hikes on the cards
In the upcoming credit policy of RBI which is scheduled on 8 Jun 2022, we expect MPC to raise repo rate by another 25-35bps
View Report 
06-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
China’s Caixin Services PMI print, was at 41.4 in May’22, better than 36.2 in Apr’22; albeit remaining in contraction
View Report 
03-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to oscillate as investors track global data print over the hope of Fed not continuing with aggressive pace of rate hike
View Report 
02-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Monthly Economic Buffet – May 2022
With EU countries announcing a ban on most of Russia’s oil imports, oil prices are likely to remain elevated
View Report 
02-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to monitor ongoing challenges including elevated inflation, global slowdown, prolonged supply chain disruption caused by Covid-19 and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict
View Report 
01-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Currency Outlook: Pressure on INR
With easing lockdown restrictions in China and stimulus measures announced by UK and China, global growth concerns abated
View Report 
01-Jun-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Elevated inflation print globally kept the investors on the edge
View Report 
31-May-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Fiscal deficit at 6.7% in FY22
Centre’s fiscal position in FY22 improved more than anticipated as the government was able to lower its fiscal deficit (% of GDP) to 6.7% from budgeted 6.9%
View Report 
31-May-22
BOB Economics | FY22 GDP Growth: GDP growth stands at 8.7% in FY22
Indian economy rose by 8.7% in FY22 after declining by (-6.6%) FY21
View Report 
31-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
EU countries have reached an agreement to ban most of Russian oil imports under the 6th set of sanctions on Russia
View Report 
30-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets are now expecting US Fed to pause rate hikes following its Jul’22 meeting
View Report 
27-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
International crude price rose to its 2-month high of US$ 117bbl, as EU is planning to ban crude imports from Russia
View Report 
26-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Fed minutes highlighted that 50bps increase in policy rate might be appropriate in the next few meetings
View Report 
25-May-22
BOB Economics | GDP Expectations: Recovery in FY22
Growth in Indian economy is expected to improve by 9.2% (GDP) in FY22 led by services
View Report 
25-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
PMI print worldwide aggravated concerns of muted growth
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24-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
US 10Y yield rose sharply by 7bps amidst comments from Kansas Fed President of federal fund rate might rising to 2% in Aug’22, contingent on the inflation trajectory
View Report 
23-May-22
BOB Economics | Fiscal Update: Government cuts excise etc. What are fiscal implications?
Centre has recently announced multiple measures to ease inflation
View Report 
23-May-22
BOB Economics | External Borrowings: Taking stock of ECBs
External commercial borrowings (ECBs) have emerged as an important source of financing for corporates including PSUs
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23-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Inflation concerns yet again aggravated with Germany’s PPI soaring to yet another record high of 33.5% in Apr’22, on YoY basis
View Report 
20-May-22
BOB Economics | Crop Production: 3rd Advance Estimates – Rabi and Kharif production
According to the 3rd advance estimates, India’s foodgrains production is expected to be up by 23.8mn tonne than average production of last 5-years
View Report 
20-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets continue to react to news indicating increased risks of global economic slowdown amidst elevated prices
View Report 
19-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha
Global markets tumbled as elevated global inflation prints (most recently UK) raised fears that it will impact consumer demand and growth (US housing starts fell in Apr’22)
View Report 
18-May-22
BOB Economics | Investment Trends: Corporate investment in H1-FY22
Since FY20 gross fixed capital formation component of India’s GDP has been modest and showed a declining trend from 29.5% in FY19 to 26.6% in FY21
View Report 
18-May-22
BOB Economics | Morning Mocha