Research Reports

Domestic tiles realisation to remain under pressure in the near future due to continued weak tiles exports (-24.1% YoY in Sep’24)

View Report

Tepid quarter on intense competition in a weak demand environment and extended monsoon

View Report

We interpret near-term pressure points for India’s steel majors as elevated steel exports and weak auto demand in India

View Report

Passenger vehicle volumes grew a high single digit (~7%) YoY with the SUV segment’s share continuing to stay higher

View Report

Cement prices in Sep’24 fell by 12% YoY but stayed flat MoM as the monsoon had a relatively extended spell

View Report

Q2 miss due to higher inventory losses and LPG under-recovery; underlying R&M margin strong on high auto fuel margins

View Report

Domestic tiles realisation to remain under pressure in the near future as tiles exports fell to a 22-month low level in Aug’24

View Report

Alcoa’s result confirms significant upside from higher prices and modest impact of lower metal prices for Indian players in Q2FY25

View Report

2QFY25E to report another healthy quarter driven by good traction across geographies, cost rationalisation leading to margin increment

View Report

Demand conditions were mixed in Q2FY25 as healthy demand was observed in West/East/Central and weak in North/South regions

View Report

The Indian pharma market is shifting from generics to innovation, resulting in higher focus on R&D

View Report

Aggregate 2W volume growth likely to remain strong at ~11% YoY for our coverage in Q2 with healthy margin recovery of 120bps

View Report

2QFY25 sales trends likely similar / marginally better vs the Jun quarter; with slight pickup in the latter part of Sep, coinciding with the harvest

View Report

While earnings downgrade cycle has stalled post 1QFY25, we do not foresee material upgrade to consensus for FY25 post 2Q

View Report

Q2 likely to reflect healthy YoY volume growth for both CGDs and gas utilities but seasonal sequential pullback for the latter

View Report

Q2FY25 demand to be weak owing to monsoon seasonality (lull in new real estate projects) and limited infrastructure demand announcements

View Report

Q2FY25 soft for consumer durables; but wires and cables shine led by government and private infrastructure spending

View Report

Our building materials universe’s revenue likely to grow at a muted pace for the seventh consecutive quarter due to weak demand

View Report

Q2FY25 likely to turn out to be the second weakest quarter in terms of EBITDA profit over the past four years for our Ferrous coverage

View Report

Credit growth likely to remain broad based, while moderation in growth likely to ease C-D ratio for the entire system

View Report

Passenger vehicle volumes grew in higher single digit (8%) YoY with share of SUV segment continuing to stay higher

View Report

Bathware demand environment remains soft in Q2FY25 on heavy monsoon and slowdown in IHB construction activity

View Report

Cement prices in September 2024 fell by 8% YoY but gained marginally MoM by 2% as the monsoon continued a relatively extended spell

View Report

Domestic tiles realization to remain under pressure in Q2FY25 as tiles exports fell to a 13-month low level in Jul’24

View Report

Responding to steel downcycle, western markets have lowered supplies and inventories and swiftly instituted trade defense measures

View Report

Contrasting commentary on rural recovery. Dabur’s optimism reflects HPC/healthcare exposure while TCPL’s conservatism likely reflects salt

View Report

China steel demand remains in a downward trend as market transforms from construction to manufacturing led demand

View Report

MDF industry’s margin pressure to persist over the next 4-6 quarters as industry to operate near trough level over FY25E-FY26E

View Report

Industry asking for proactive tariffs protection against a potential surge in imports from China and affordable domestic tax environment

View Report

Dealer checks suggest healthy demand in the 125-200cc motor bike segment, indicating customer preference for high-end products

View Report

Strong consumer interest drives demand for high-end electronics, with Voltbek emerging as a key player

View Report

Demand was weak in the Jul-Aug’24 months, but it is likely to improve in the near future as resin prices appear to be near bottom levels

View Report

Passenger vehicle growth steady and expected to deliver healthy pickup driven by preference for the SUV segment

View Report

Government incentives and industry reforms are paving the way for significant growth in the Electronics Manufacturing Services sector

View Report

Cement prices in Aug’24 fell by 9% YoY but were steady MoM as the monsoon continues to grip many regions

View Report

We highlight relevant read-across for Indian ferrous players from BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook and FY24 (ending Jun) results

View Report

With 3/4th of Southwest monsoon over, agri outlook has improved with a decline in “deficit rain” and a rise in “normal rain” states

View Report

Credit growth remained modest on slowdown in retail loan, C/D contracted a bit; NIMs under pressure due to increase in cost of funds

View Report

Our consumer durables universe grew 32% YoY in Q1, fueled by strong demand in cooling products, EMS, and cables

View Report

Tiles exports fell sharply by 15.4% MoM in Jun’24 due to the impact of high ocean freight rate

View Report

Volumes listless due to state elections, extreme heat conditions, and heavy rainfall in the eastern region. Realisations fell ~5% YoY

View Report

Tepid quarter on intense competition in a weak demand environment; pipe remains the best performer, wood panel the worst

View Report

Q1 volume steered by 2W and tractor segments despite overall lull in sentiments given the extreme weather and general elections

View Report

After bottoming out in Q1CY24 and some improvements in Q2, markets are again facing challenges from increased China exports

View Report

Halfway through the monsoon, we analyse statewise exposure to agri income and estimate 19% of rural households in deficit SWM

View Report

Indian players to benefit from upside in aluminium and alumina realisations in Q2, according to Alcoa and Rio Tinto’s results

View Report

Iron ore shipment recovery will mean range-bound iron ore pricing in H2CY24, despite weaker production recovery so far

View Report

Aggregate PV revenue growth likely to remain strong at 14% YoY for our coverage in Q1 with healthy margin recovery of 130bps

View Report

Refining, marketing and gas distribution margins have normalised in Q1 and are likely to still remain in the healthy range

View Report

We expect marginal sequential improvement in sales growth for most FMCG companies in our coverage due to slight pickup in rural

View Report

Q1FY25 demand likely to be weak due to limited infrastructure demand, extreme summer and lull in new real estate project announcements

View Report

Credit growth remains healthy with broad-based growth supported by wholesale segment, while some moderation in retail book is expected

View Report

After multiple quarters of earnings downgrades, 1QFY25 will likely see a pause. We think it is too early to call if the cycle has turned up for good

View Report

We expect aggregate EBITDA to decline by 13% sequentially for the four steel majors on seasonal pullback in volume and margin contraction

View Report

Q1FY25E to be strong given the severe heat wave across the country; cooling products to outperform

View Report

Our building materials universe’s revenue to grow at a moderate pace for sixth consecutive quarter on elections and extreme heat wave

View Report

Recent trading updates from FMCG companies imply a recovery in rural. The pace of recovery appears to be slow

View Report

Positive for plastic pipe; companies with high exposure to PVC polymer to benefit the most in the near term

View Report

Ferrous steel stock valuations are now higher than the 10-year average as well as current valuation of their global peers

View Report

Crude price likely to remain range-bound against expectations of spike in H2CY24

View Report

Tepid quarter on intense competition in a weak demand environment; pipe segment remains the best performer, wood panel the worst

View Report

Q1FY25 saw dealers experiencing a surge in AC and fan sales driven by the scorching heat and peak summer; premiumisation continues

View Report

We compare MAHGL and IGL’s volume growth, margin trends, profitability and valuations

View Report

ArcelorMittal’s (MT) Q1CY24 results confirm bottoming out of steel margins in the western world

View Report

FY24 saw strong capacity addition in renewables, ending the year with 18.5GW, though lower than the targeted addition of 20GW

View Report

We summarise key takeaways from our interaction with Director of Securities of Valin Steel, the seventh largest steel producer in China

View Report

India steel prices to improve modestly with kick-off of restocking season in Sep, met coal price to ease further, iron ore range bound

View Report

Credit growth remains healthy, driven by retail segment

View Report

Our building materials universe revenue to grow at a tepid pace for the fifth consecutive quarter on weak demand and lower realisations

View Report

Pressure on margins for IT companies to continue in the medium term, in our view, given dominance of cost take-out projects

View Report

VNB margins expected to stay under pressure for life insurers; SBI Life (TP Rs 1,970) remains our top pick

View Report

Manganese prices have bottomed out in India during Dec’23, in line with global trends, with domestic major MOIL effecting hikes

View Report

India demand outlook healthy for steel and aluminium; although aluminium demand less likely to be impacted by election

View Report

CERC retains most of the norms specified in the draft tariff regulations in letter and spirit, ensuring stability of policy

View Report

Aluminium price likely to be range-bound in the near term, with demand recovery likely to be back-ended in CY24

View Report

We hosted 10 corporates at our ‘Unlocking Insights’ Conference spanning the capital goods, power and durables sectors

View Report

Power plant PLFs higher at 72.3% in Jan’24 and 68.5% YTD; government raises peak demand estimate 5% to 384GW by 2032

View Report

MF AUM crossed Rs 50tn in 9MFY24, marking a new high for the industry

View Report

We interpret the BHP outlook to mean continuing improvement in China’s steel demand-supply balance through CY24…

View Report

Our consumer durables universe grew 25% YoY in Q3, once again led by demand for EMS, cables and wires

View Report

Q3 revenue for our capital goods coverage grew 18% YoY (+15% ex-LT) on strong execution; EBITDA margin slipped 40bps (20bps ex-LT)

View Report

Softer fuel (pet coke) cost aided 560bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion on average for our cement coverage in Q3

View Report

Tepid demand climate dampens building material performance in Q3; pipe segment remains the best performer, wood panel the worst

View Report

SBI Life, our top pick, continues to dominate peers by way of superior growth and market share gains in Q3FY24; LIC posted a recovery

View Report

Q3 volumes steered by PV sales and 2W recovery on the back of festive/ wedding season demand and rural pickup

View Report

New draft tariff norms ensure stability of existing power assets and recognise risk-reward across asset classes

View Report

Q3 in line with flattish revenue growth YoY and healthy operational performance across our coverage universe

View Report

MT attributes weak Q4 to severe destocking in several markets; looks for spread recovery in Q1 from unsustainably low levels

View Report

Peak power demand for December at 214GW with no demand unmet; thermal PLFs ~200bps above target

View Report

Budget pegs fiscal deficit at 5.8% for FY24 (vs. 5.9% BE) while setting a target of 5.1% for FY25; retains 4.5% guidance for FY26

View Report

Guiding for 20% annual growth in both FY24 and FY25 and planning investments to further extend growth runway

View Report

India’s building materials industry is on a strong footing given the anticipated revival in real estate cycle and rising organised share

View Report

Q3FY24 presented weak demand trends like the previous quarter due to subdued volume recovery

View Report

Healthy credit offtake reported in Q3, driven by retail and SME/MSME segments and supported by tick-up in wholesale loans

View Report

Global LNG prices showing initial signs of easing; improved availability likely to make the fuel competitive for Indian buyers

View Report

SBI Life forecast to deliver strong growth and steady VNB margins in Q3; remains our top life insurance pick

View Report

A combination of strong underlying domestic economy coupled with a visible increase in consumption of mass-premium items will likely be the dominant driver of market in 2024, in our view

View Report

Peak demand for November at 205GW, declining 8% MOM with the onset of winter; Thermal PLFs up ~500bp YoY

View Report

Europe and US markets are seeing initial recovery from low margins, but a pick-up in demand is needed for next leg of recovery

View Report

Passenger vehicle demand healthy across segments (UVs and compact cars) and is expected to continue

View Report

Despite recent rally in OMCs, we believe stock prices are yet not fully reflecting long-term sustainable marketing margins

View Report

We followed up our Southern Sojourn with on-ground channel checks in India’s eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal

View Report

Dealers saw mixed demand across products during festive-cum-wedding season from September to November

View Report

India to add 20GW of RE capacity in FY24 and power producers now pursuing hybrid and RTC solutions, per ICRA

View Report

MAAUM of MF industry grew to Rs 49tn at end-November from Rs 39tn in Mar’23, closing in on Rs 50tn mark

View Report

Sectoral credit card spends rose 27% YoY over Apr-Oct’23, with AXSB racking up the most market share and SBICARD holding steady

View Report

India’s power generation capacity grew 4% YoY in October to ~425GW, with solar energy topping the additions at 10.4GW

View Report

Our FMCG coverage saw muted volume growth in Q2 due to heightened regional competition and delayed rural recovery

View Report

Higher demand for ULIPs than non-par plans narrowed VNB margins for private life insurers in H1; LIC bucked the trend

View Report

Q2 volumes steered by PV sales while 2W segment remained tepid on slow (but steady) rural growth

View Report

Softer fuel (pet coke) cost aided 600bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion on average for our cement coverage in Q2

View Report

Q2 revenue for our capital goods coverage grew 17% YoY (+11% ex-LT) on strong execution; EBITDA margin stayed flat (+60bps ex-LT)

View Report

Q2 an uneventful quarter for the power sector with flat revenue growth YoY for our coverage universe

View Report

Our consumer durables universe grew 20% YoY in Q2, once again led by demand for EMS, cables and wires

View Report

Most major global indices slipped 2-4% in October; Nifty 50 shed 3% while Chinese stocks lost another 3-4%

View Report

Cement prices hiked by Rs 15-20/bag in the north, west and central regions in recent weeks, taking cues from the east and south

View Report

WSA outlook points to resilient steel demand with stabilisation in China, lowering the downside risk to steel margins

View Report

Aggregate PV revenue growth likely to remain strong at 15% YoY for our coverage in Q2 but margin pressure set to continue

View Report

Volume recovery delayed due to food inflation and weak rural sentiment amid an erratic monsoon

View Report

Green energy to dominate capacity creation but thermal power usage to remain sticky as India seeks to plug supply shortages

View Report

Cement dispatches robust in Q2, rising 15% YoY on average for our coverage companies

View Report

Q2 saw healthy systemic credit growth of 19% YoY led by retail and SME/ MSME segments and supported by recovery in MFI

View Report

Dealers saw a pickup in sales of ACs and fans in Q2FY24 due to unusually dry weather; premiumisation continues

View Report

Sector EBITDA to remain range-bound with JSTL likely to retain momentum, TATA faltering in Europe and SAIL set to recover from Q1 weakness

View Report

Early AUM data points to strong Q2 profits for BAF – our top pick among NBFCs

View Report

Nifty 50 outperformed most global indices in September, rising 2%; US indices slipped 4-5%

View Report

YTD data signals steady demand shift toward high-end products, fuelling a raft of premium launches across segments

View Report

GNA comes into effect on 1 October but key aspects of new regime remain ambiguous

View Report

Sectoral credit card spends grew at robust 27% YoY in 5MFY24; top 4 players constituted 75% share

View Report

Our recent visit to South India revealed compelling on-ground insights from local FMCG and durables dealers

View Report

Global steel margin could improve in Q4CY23 with seasonal demand uptick in Sep-Oct and potential production cap in China

View Report

Commentary from global ferrous majors continues to point to demand stabilisation in China

View Report

Nifty 50 fell 2.5% in August, largely in line with other major global indices; Chinese Indices were the worst performers

View Report

India to account for 3% of global battery cell market by 2030, with planned production capacity of ~150GW hours

View Report

IPM saw subdued 6% YoY growth in July as sluggish demand for acute therapies (+4%) offset stronger chronic revenue (+10%)

View Report

Q1 a middling quarter for the consumer durables sector, barring cables, wires and EMS players

View Report

FMCG sector grew 12.2% YoY in Q1 with volumes rising 7.5%; regional competition intensified during the quarter

View Report

Our capital goods coverage grew 30% YoY in Q1 on strong execution (+20% ex-LT); EBITDA margin stayed flat (+260bps ex-LT)

View Report

Weakness in consulting, BFSI, consumer, hi-tech and telecom verticals led to deferral of order bookings

View Report

Only a third of AA’s 42% QoQ EBITDA decline in Q2CY23 attributable to market factors relevant to Indian companies

View Report

Q1FY24 likely to be a bump in the road to recovery with a 30% QoQ pullback in aggregate EBITDA forecast for our coverage

View Report

Demand environment held steady in Q1; divergence between pricing and volumes has narrowed

View Report

Expect steady system credit growth in Q1 and recovery in deposits due to rate realignment and discontinuation of 2,000-rupee notes

View Report

Despite seasonality, Q1FY24 growth is likely to remain weak while margins are unlikely to surprise positively

View Report

The Indian solar capacity to reach 100GW in a year from 68GW currently; further ramp up to 280GW likely by 2030

View Report

India’s startup industry looks poised to triple to US$ 1.5tn by 2025-26 as foreign investors flock to the space

View Report

ACN narrowed its FY23 revenue growth guidance to 8-9% YoY CC from 8-10% due to a material decline in consulting engagements

View Report

Encouraging macro data validates our view of rural recovery in FY24; upbeat corporate commentary lends further credence

View Report

Decline in aggregate Q4FY23 revenue across verticals and regions suggests the cracks are beginning to emerge

View Report

Fairly valued stocks deliver better returns than both over- and undervalued scrips, per our analysis of forward PE and stock returns

View Report

IPM grew 11.3% (MAT) in May’23 led by anti-infective, respiratory and pain therapies; derma, VMN and anti-diabetic remained sluggish

View Report

India is progressing on the 15bn target of ethanol production, but delivery target could be delayed by a couple of years beyond ESY25

View Report

Consumer Staples: Agri expert call – El Nino to have negligible impact

View Report

Slow start for the ceramics sector in FY24 but export traction, big projects and demand for large tiles to support revenue growth

View Report

Demand remains affected by slower decision-making, caution around spending and project ramp-downs

View Report

Consumer staples players saw a robust Q4 given a healthy price-volume balance; margin expansion continues

View Report

Topline growth improves in Q4 amidst demand concerns, though margins remain sedate

View Report

Strong execution aided 14% YoY revenue growth for our capital goods coverage in Q4FY23 (25% ex-LT); gross and EBITDA margins robust

View Report

India’s YTD underperformance against global markets appears to be reversing, with outperformance in May

View Report

SEBI moots all-inclusive TER with new AUM-based slabs to make mutual funds more transparent

View Report

MT’s Q1 print confirms global steel margin recovery backed by a strong revival in shipments with the end of destocking

View Report

PV sale volumes growth continues in April as compact cars lent a helping hand with a strong 27% YoY revival; SUV growth tapered off

View Report

Baosteel guides for continuation of production discipline in CY23 and only a modest decline in raw material prices

View Report

India has underperformed most large markets since Jan’23, though this trend did reverse in April

View Report

PV revenue growth likely to remain strong in Q4 at ~20% YoY for our coverage but margin pressure set to continue

View Report

Macro data from China confirms ongoing recovery in steel demand with scope for pick-up in the peak June quarter

View Report

Alcoa’s Q1CY23 EPS narrowly missed consensus; aluminium posted higher sequential improvement than alumina

View Report

MF industry MAAUM grew 6% in FY23 driven by equity and passive funds while debt outflows continued

View Report

Cement dispatches robust in Q4, advancing ~20% YoY for our coverage companies

View Report

Visible uptick in rural demand off a low base, though urban centres expected to see relatively higher volume growth in Q4

View Report

IPM posted 8% YoY MAT growth in Mar’23 led by the gastrointestinal, cardiac and pain therapies

View Report

SEBI’s March meeting showcased its firm intent to regulate fees charged to MF investors, sending tremors through the AMC industry

View Report

Industry volumes indicate a shift towards high-end vehicles, especially in the PV segment

View Report

Steel EBITDA recovered 36% QoQ in Q4 on volume pick-up; erasure of domestic price premium paves way for further price uptick

View Report

Flagging demand and unseasonal rains in March dampen our Q4 outlook for consumer durables companies

View Report

EPC players likely to maintain execution momentum in Q4 while product companies could see weaker toplines as they battle chip shortages

View Report

Global IT services companies expect an anaemic Mar’23 quarter and a weak CY23; Indian players foresee near-term pressure over Apr-Sep

View Report

Demand for fans falls short of dealer expectations post BEE rating transition; outlook cautious

View Report

Expect SBI Life to deliver continued cost efficiency and high margins in Q4; remains our top pick among life insurers

View Report

IPM grew 6.7% YoY in Feb’23 (MAT) led by gastro, cardiac and pain therapies; anti-infectives, respiratory and VMN sales lagged the market

View Report

Green shoots visible in rural markets (~40% of FMCG industry volumes) after a prolonged slowdown; policy measures to lend a further boost

View Report

Our analysis indicates that India is witnessing mass premiumisation across several discretionary categories

View Report

We summarise key takeaways from our interactions with ArcelorMittal (MT NA) and Alcoa (AA US)

View Report

Despite the inflationary environment and global economic slowdown, the outlook on tech spending budgets remains upbeat

View Report

India’s decadal per capita power consumption grew 3.6% vs. the long-term mean of 6% and ~14% post-liberalisation

View Report

Aluminium prices to remain in a tight range of US$ 2,300-2,500/t in H1CY23, as per our global channel checks

View Report

Buoyant commentary from global capital goods players is likely to rub off on Indian companies via potentially higher sourcing

View Report

Differentiated value proposition vis-à-vis UPI behind sustained growth in credit cards; spends logged a 25% CAGR over 9MFY18-9MFY23

View Report

Summit largely focused on improving crop yields through efficient use of land and water, right crop selection and mechanisation

View Report

Macro uncertainty inducing cautious IT budget spends and a sharper focus on cost optimisation

View Report

Q3FY23 was a middling quarter with investment themes outperforming consumption sectors; export-oriented sectors did well

View Report

IPM MAT Jan’23 grew 5.2% YoY led by Gastro, Cardiac and pain therapies while anti-infectives, respiratory and VMN lagged

View Report

Strong execution aided 18% YoY revenue growth for our capital goods coverage in Q3 (21% ex-LT) despite supply chain challenges

View Report

Consumer durables players posted modest topline growth in Q3 as volumes moved up but pricing action faltered

View Report

AMNS’ Q4CY22 earnings commentary confirms bottoming out of the global steel sector in the December quarter

View Report

Union budget negative for life insurers as it makes high-ticket purchases of traditional products unattractive from a tax perspective

View Report

Healthy demand growth expected over FY22-FY25 at ~8% CAGR, factoring in a spike during pre-election year FY24

View Report

Budget attempts to balance employment generation, social support, and infrastructure creation while keeping the fiscal glide path intact

View Report

High power demand led by festive season and uptick in economic activity to drive revenue growth

View Report

Fiscal normalisation post Covid expected to remain a core theme of the FY24 budget; fiscal glide path likely to be maintained

View Report

Morbi gas demand under pressure due to significant drop in ceramic manufacturing plant utilisations and initiation of price cuts

View Report

Alcoa’s Q4CY22 EBITDA miss vs. consensus highlights above-expected raw material cost pressure

View Report

IPM grew 6.5% YoY in Dec’22 on MAT basis (12.7% for the month) on the back of price- (5.1%) and launch-led growth (2.3%)

View Report

India’s MF AUM on course for 11% CAGR over FY22-FY27E to ~Rs 64tn as financial savings, product literacy and digitisation rise

View Report

Building blocks largely in place for a faster rise in India’s per capita income but key macro catalysts awaited

View Report

India’s data centre capacity estimated to more than double in 3Y to 1.8GW, a 32% CAGR and cumulative US$ 4.4bn opportunity

View Report

Despite furlough, revenue likely to deliver the pre-covid level but the pressure on existing business continues

View Report

Q3 to remain lacklustre on muted demand post festive season and little scope for price hikes

View Report

Investments resilient led by traction in private capex; manufacturing sector continues to dominate new project announcements

View Report

IIFL Wealth projected to post Q3 AUM/PAT growth of 9%/12% YoY on higher operating leverage and strong recurring flows

View Report

New energy labelling norms effective Jan’23 downgrade the most efficient conventional fans from a 5-star rating to just 1 star

View Report

Steel prices in China saw initial recovery in November and can rise further in Mar/Apr’23 as economic recovery takes hold

View Report

IPM grew 6.2% YoY in Nov’22 on MAT basis (14.5% for the month) on the back of price- (5%) and launch-led growth (2.3%) while volumes fell 1%

View Report

Nifty 50 outperformed US and Japan benchmark indices in November while underperforming the EU

View Report

Rapid rise in India’s credit card spends and cards outstanding over the last five years; millennials to form the next leg of growth

View Report

PNGRB targets unified gas pipeline tariff from Apr’23; adherence to proposed timeline a key monitorable

View Report

Government-led manufacturing push, fast-growing consumer demand and boom in 3PL to bolster logistics sector topline

View Report

India nearing a new capex supercycle, in our view, with private spends likely coinciding with ongoing public outlay

View Report

Nifty 200 earnings came in moderately ahead of consensus in Q2FY23, but only ~40% of companies delivered a beat, similar to Q1

View Report

Aluminium price floor building up with a tighter physical market, but near-term upside capped by high demand uncertainty

View Report

Price hikes deferred beyond Q2 to maintain market share/topline; commodity deflation partly negated by adverse currency

View Report

New Gujarat electronics policy aims to build an ecosystem for electronics manufacturing in India and enable import substitution

View Report

Nifty underperformed global peers in October; banks and IT outperformed, pharma and FMCG lagged

View Report

We summarise the read-across from Alcoa’s Q3 results and our global channel checks

View Report

Baosteel expects steel demand recovery in China to commence from Oct-Nov’22 but weak margins to continue into Q4CY22

View Report

IPM grew 6.6% in Sep’22 on MAT basis (6.2% for the month) led by pricing (4.8%) and launch-led growth (2.5%) while volume shrank 0.8%

View Report

Expect Q2 EBITDA to drop over 50% QoQ for Indian steel majors as margins fall well below mid-cycle levels

View Report

Expect a subdued Q2FY23 owing to weak demand in Jul-Aug’22, though September did see some traction ahead of the festive season

View Report

Expect modest 12% YoY topline growth and flattish net profit for our consumer durables coverage

View Report

Credit card spends clocked in at Rs 1tn for each of the five months of FY23 – a positive surprise; outlook strong

View Report

IIFL Wealth projected to post Q2 AUM/PAT growth of 15%/27% YoY on higher operating leverage, with stronger recurring flows

View Report

Nifty 50 fell 3.7% in Sep’22 against declines of 8.0% for the S&P 500 and 11.8% for the EM aggregate index amid rising recession fears

View Report

Positive momentum in housing and jobs creation augurs well for long-term demand of consumer durables

View Report

Global steel spreads saw sharp compression in Q3CY22, per MT. We expect Indian steel margins to bottom out in the Sep quarter

View Report

Leading pipe companies likely to report high inventory losses in Q2FY23 owing to freefall in PVC prices (trading below Rs 90/kg)

View Report

Crude price has eased amid the global economic slowdown but implementation of European sanctions poses an upside risk in our view

View Report

Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor JV a key long-term positive for consumer durables sector as it marks the onset of local semiconductor supply

View Report

Rising gas costs compelling Morbi ceramic manufacturers to switch to propane (~10% cheaper), with 300 of 850 units already converted

View Report

Employment generation in India’s formal sector hit a record 1.8mn in July vs. a monthly run-rate of 0.7mn over the past four years, per EPFO

View Report

Housing sales – a key demand indicator for consumer durables – on long-term secular growth path, per RBI pricing data

View Report

India’s new National Logistics Policy aims to improve the logistics ecosystem by addressing policy gaps to lower costs

View Report

India is among the few countries to fulfil its energy intensity mitigation target up to 2020

View Report

Global majors expect China to play a countercyclical role with its ability to run stimulus and support steel demand

View Report

Stiff global headwinds have intensified concerns of a potential bear market among the investment community

View Report

Expect a strong festive season for consumer durables over Aug-Oct (typically 35-40% of annual sales)

View Report

Experts view at the India Steel Conference 2022 suggest 7-8% steel demand growth over the medium term supported by progress on NIP

View Report

China’s Q2CY22 steel sector performance flags subpar demand in Q3 and only a gradual recovery from Q4

View Report

Nifty 50 returned 3.5% in Aug’22, outperforming developed and some emerging market peers

View Report

Consumer durables sector to post sustained volume growth of 5-14% over five years, per Crisil. ACs to grow fastest at ~14%, TVs slowest at ~5%

View Report

Nifty 200 earnings were moderately below consensus, with only 40% of companies delivering a beat in Q1FY23

View Report

Durables players had to negotiate waning demand, RM inflation and SG&A cost normalisation; cooling of RM cost in late-Q1 offered some respite

View Report

Proposed general network access (GNA) policy, which places onus of transmission on buyers rather than generators, a key policy shift

View Report

Nifty 50 rose 8.2% in Jul’22 with mid-caps outperforming large- and small-caps. Index valuation is now broadly in line with historical average

View Report

Imported inflation a concern but India still better placed than global peers; nominal GDP growth equals credit growth

View Report

Alcoa’s aluminium commentary sets a positive tone; management continues to see market in deficit in CY22

View Report

Metals players likely to post sharp EBITDA decline QoQ in Q1 amid double whammy of margin and volume contraction

View Report

Q1FY23 to be exceptionally strong given weak Covid-hit base quarter last year, with summer products set to shine in particular

View Report

Increased input costs in tiles (gas cost) and wood panel (timber) to impact margins; but strong volume growth YoY on low base

View Report

Valuation will likely inch towards long term trend as market resets from an easy liquidity framework to a traditional valuation matrix, in our view

View Report

Aluminium price is being supported by deficits as supply disruptions outpace demand weakness

View Report

Managements of DRRD, ARBP and LAURUS confident of near-term growth drivers but see many moving parts in long run

View Report

FY22 sales of larger companies outpaced medium/small/micro players, per a BOB Economics study of 2,000+ companies across sectors

View Report

Nifty 200 companies largely met consensus estimates at the aggregate level, with only 38% of them managing to beat earnings forecasts

View Report

War, inflation, supply chain disruptions and Covid all dented consumer durable margins, but likely to be transient

View Report

Indian benchmarks underperformed their global peers in May; locally, autos, consumers and financials outperformed

View Report

We analyse sector out/underperformance during the peak and trough phases of a market cycle

View Report

Media industry seeing robust recovery as consumers are returning to theatres in large numbers and spending more

View Report

Levy or increase of export duty to improve domestic availability of steel products, iron ore and pellets

View Report

EESL plans to expand its footprint in B2C retail with products such as smart bulbs, energy-efficient ACs and fans

View Report

Rising gas costs driving Morbi ceramic manufacturers to switch to propane which is 5% cheaper

View Report

Valin Steel’s CY22 outlook points to stable steel margins in Q2 and Q3CY22

View Report

China’s steel demand recovery delayed to end-Q2CY22 but full-year growth outlook still achievable

View Report

Nifty forward P/E is now close to its 5Y average though a modest cut in estimates looks likely post Q4FY22 results

View Report

India’s ongoing power crisis stems from a coal shortage due to inadequate planning; situation to continue till hydropower ramps up

View Report

Iron ore price likely to remain elevated through the June quarter as supply issues persist

View Report

Alcoa’s Jan-Mar quarter EBITDA improved 36% QoQ in aluminium but declined 48% in alumina; guiding for a stronger Apr-Jun quarter

View Report

Europe’s continuing reluctance to enter into long-term contracts for LNG highlights its resolve to green up its energy sources

View Report

With no meaningful FDA approvals, US generic sales growth for our pharma coverage to be tepid in Q4; Russia-Ukraine war to hurt ROW/EM sales

View Report

Gas demand from Morbi ceramic cluster has plummeted but could recover partially in near term with potential increase in propane prices

View Report

Expect a tepid Q4 given volume losses due to the third Covid wave in Jan’22 and elections in Feb’22; some demand pickup seen in March

View Report

We expect most of our IT coverage to perform well in Q4, with 2.5-5% QoQ CC topline growth, and mid-tier players likely to outshine tier-I

View Report

High RM cost to weigh on margins as HDPE/LDPE prices have risen by 9%/17% YoY during Q4FY22

View Report

MDF growth continue to outpace plywood led by strong OEM demand, increasing applications and lower imports

View Report

Global commodity prices (ex-agri) have likely peaked in Mar’22 unless the Russia-Ukraine war escalates and/or sanctions are widened

View Report

Baosteel’s CY22 steel outlook for China points to market stabilisation with modest 2% dip in consumption and lower net crude steel exports

View Report

Return of higher operating costs as global economies reopen and rationalisation of growth guidance have undermined pharma valuations

View Report

The conflict has exacerbated seaborne coal tightness with rail and port logistics disruption in Russia reducing its coal export by 75% in Mar’22

View Report

Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine has plunged a world only just emerging from Covid-led shocks into renewed uncertainty

View Report

OMCs could face near-term pressure on marketing margins from the sharp rise in crude price

View Report

Record US inflation coupled with Russia’s attack on Ukraine induced a significant 4% market correction (Nifty 500) in Feb’22

View Report

HIV vaccine development boosted by inclusion of the mRNA platform following its track record of rapid Covid-19 jab rollout

View Report

84% of Nifty 200 stocks either beat or met Q3 consensus revenue estimates but less than 60% did so at the net income level

View Report

India’s FY23 budget continues a series of themes from previous budgets, including elevated capex outlay and easing of regulations

View Report

Dull festive season and muted participation from rural markets led to subdued volumes in Q3

View Report

Pent-up demand to buoy 2W volumes in FY23E but sales likely to peak within the next decade going by trends in other emerging markets

View Report

Given an improving Covid-19 situation, expect a path towards normalisation of deficit targets

View Report

The organized building material expected to report healthy volume growth/earnings in CY22 with likely pick-up in housing sector

View Report

Due to high base, continued RM inflation, we expect modest net income growth in Q3FY22 in the range of -13% to +20%

View Report

Infosys and TCS outperformed already optimistic revenue growth expectations; Wipro’s 2.3% QoQ dollar revenue growth was a miss

View Report

Demand for IT services strong though significant headwinds also present in the form of high attrition and supply chain disruptions

View Report

Q3FY22 expected to be a strong quarter despite seasonality due to high demand and a robust deal pipeline

View Report

India poised for secular uptick in per capita income as underlying building blocks now largely in place

View Report

MSIL’s domestic sales still hampered by chip crisis (-13% YoY in Dec); TTMT (+50%) and MM (+10%) continue to buck trend aided by launches

View Report

Career launcher (CL) is a leader in MBA and Law segment and is a challenger in Jobs segment

View Report

Growing middle / upper class to drive 4Ws demand. SUVs in particular to grow strongly but competition is higher versus hatchback segment

View Report

Accenture (ACN; Y/E Aug) reported record YoY growth of 27% CC. Deal wins stood at record USD16.8bn.

View Report

Connected people and enterprises are shaping India’s digital economy; structural drivers in place for robust, multiyear growth

View Report

Growth has continued: e-way bills are up 12%, FASTag up 54%, trade up 36% and rail container traffic up 13% in last three months on YoY basis

View Report

NMDC intends to offset pricing headwinds with volume ramp-up in H2FY22

View Report

MSIL’s domestic sales still hampered by chip crisis (-18% YoY in Nov); TTMT (+38%) and MM (+7%) continue to buck trend aided by launches

View Report

An upper middle class growing 2.8x over 2018-30E and low ownership levels will spur new, upgrade and replacement demand for durables

View Report

While demand deceleration in China has resulted in price correction, we expect sharper production cuts to constrain exports

View Report

COP26 ends in Glasgow with emission cut commitments exceeding those made in Paris as part of COP21

View Report

India announces 2070 net zero target, exceeding the global community’s expectation in our view

View Report

4W sales in October hampered by chip crisis though TTMT did well. BJAUT’s 2W volumes fell 17% YoY while 3Ws recovered

View Report

Historical emissions responsible for global warming – US, EU, China and Russia account for two-thirds of greenhouse gas dump

View Report

LNG price to remain well above US$ 15/mmbtu through Q1CY22 even assuming a normal winter and approval of Nord Stream-2 in Q1

View Report

Demand deceleration in China offset by sharp production cuts and their extension into Q1CY22

View Report

Expect moderate 5.1% YoY topline growth from our pharma coverage in Q2FY22 on a high base

View Report

EV 4W/2W share up to 14%/70% in key markets but regulatory support key as costs higher vs. ICE and charging infrastructure lacking

View Report

Stronger QoQ dispatches across auto segments to boost Q2 topline; input cost and semiconductor supply headwinds continue

View Report

Shift in hiring trends due to Covid-19, including increased recruitment from smaller cities

View Report

Expect a robust Q2FY22 for our IT services coverage marked by dollar revenue growth of 3-8% QoQ and 14-40% YoY

View Report

4W sales weak in September due to chip crisis though TTMT did well. BJAUT’s 2W volumes fell 11% YoY while 3Ws recovered

View Report

IndiGrid is an InvIT focused on interstate transmission assets, though up to 25% of its AUM can be in state transmission, solar and storage

View Report

Short-term power price rally led by states vying for 24x7 supply, decline in hydro generation and plant shutdowns

View Report

Once Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2021, is enacted, states will have little choice but to implement it

View Report

Good Q4FY21 performance from Accenture (Y/E Aug) with guidance of 12-15% CC growth in FY22

View Report

Credit event at Evergrande has potential to spread contagion risk to property sector, though China can possibly manage the situation

View Report

We launch our Ferrous Chartbook to track key global supply and demand drivers for the steel sector

View Report

Rebound in 5G rollout post Covid-led blip; set to reach ~1bn connections globally by CY22-CY23 and unlock growth opportunity for Indian IT

View Report

We attended a webinar hosted by Antaike, a leading Chinese metals information provider

View Report

Warehousing additions in India to clock 19% CAGR over FY21-FY26 fuelled by ecommerce, more localised spaces and manufacturing growth

View Report

Robust outlook on new projects and inorganic opportunities to drive strong growth with double-digit equity IRRs

View Report

RNW targets 18GW of capacity by FY25 through organic and inorganic opportunities as the market consolidates

View Report

PV dispatches in August hit by semiconductor shortage; expected to remain affected in coming months until supply is restored

View Report

Proposed delicensing of distribution positive but key aspects such as wheeling charges and tariff caps will determine the outcome

View Report

IT companies ex-TCS and HCLT outperformed optimistic growth expectations in Q1FY22

View Report

Independent, performance-oriented digital marketing platforms can take on Google-Facebook duopoly through customisation

View Report

Pandemic-fuelled cloud adoption to raise enterprise cloud spending at 28% CAGR to US$ 2.4tn by 2026, per Gartner

View Report

Indian steel margins expected to remain elevated near term but revert to mean in longer run

View Report

Renewable sector has several tailwinds. Intermittency will be handled by demand-side management, policy and ultimately storage

View Report

Low insurance coverage, positive working-class demographics and Covid-19 tailwinds to spur growth for India’s life insurers

View Report

Most auto segments saw modest MoM dispatches in July, barring tractors (-45% MoM); PV and 2W exports healthy

View Report

Structural growth drivers such as shift to organised players, outsourcing/3PL and manufacturing scale-up are yet to materialise

View Report

Rapid increase in India’s smartphone and internet penetration shaping new business opportunities backed by structural growth narrative

View Report

Expect QoQ decline but robust YoY growth from our building materials coverage in Q1FY22 aided by lockdown-hit base quarter

View Report

Weaker QoQ dispatches in PVs, CVs, 2Ws and 3Ws to impact topline; rising input cost pressure and supply issues to compound woes

View Report

We expect robust Q1FY22 marked by QoQ dollar revenue growth of 1.5% to 11.4%; wage revision to impact operating margins

View Report

Positive view on oil marketing companies with earnings supported by post-Covid recovery, potential BPCL divestment

View Report

Most OEMs reported a sharp jump MOM. Tractors and PVs report normalcy in their dispatches led by lower dealer inventories

View Report

We hosted a call with the IR team of Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China with a global footprint across 20 countries

View Report

Accenture (ACN) reported a stellar Q3FY21 performance and raised its full-year growth guidance

View Report

RIL has announced a Rs 750bn foray into developing solar, storage and hydrogen technologies

View Report

Renewables will continue to outgrow coal due to lower tariffs and a burgeoning role of ESG in investing and project finance

View Report

Planned policy initiatives favour renewables and discom privatisation but state government’s action will decide if structural change can occur

View Report

RBI has released a consultative document on the regulation of microfinance that seeks feedback from stakeholders by Jul’21

View Report

Sector rally in June driven by expected recovery in power demand as Covid-19 restrictions ease but this is not sufficient for the rally to sustain

View Report

Climate fears mounting due to global warming, shift in US stance and surge in ESG activism; coal, oil, auto, steel and cement to bear the brunt

View Report

We interacted with Rajat Gupta, founder member of Tractor Junction – a leading digital marketplace for all major tractor brands in India.

View Report

With most OEMs opting to partly shut down plants due to Covid-19, dispatches posted a steep sequential decline in May

View Report

As per RBI data on lending and deposit rates, the WALR on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by SCBs inched up to 8.1% in April while that on outstanding loans was stable at 9.2%.

View Report

We attended Sembcorp Industries' (SCI SP, Not Rated) Investor Day and spoke to the IR team of CLP Holdings (2 HK, Not Rated).

View Report

9MFY21 home loan trends released by credit bureau CRIF High Mark point to mild deterioration in 90+ DPD by value.

View Report

The Q4FY21 sequential growth and margin performance of India’s IT services sector has been in line with our as well as consensus’ optimistic estimates.

View Report

We hosted Kowtham Raj VS, an active member of government think tank NITI Aayog who plays a key advisory role in India’s battery/solar manufacturing and hydrogen schemes.

View Report

As per the Economic Times, the Forum of Regulators – a body comprising CERC and state regulators – has released a report making recommendations to reduce electricity tariffs for end users.

View Report

India’s +5% p.a. power demand growth will be met by renewable capacity adds, which we expect will outpace coal by 2:1 in FY21-FY25, led by falling costs and rising green capital.

View Report

Power stocks rallied yesterday, possibly on news of a 25% YoY uptick in electricity consumption in the first week of May.

View Report

We hosted Stefan Louis, CEO of Nexcharge – a technology-based JV between Exide Industries and Leclanché of Switzerland – catering to lithium-ion tech in India.

View Report

The RBI has opened a Rs 500bn on-tap liquidity window for banks at the repo rate till Mar'22, with a tenor of up to three years.

View Report

PV sales in April are estimated to have fallen ~11% MoM, albeit bettering our projections.

View Report

We hosted Kiran Koteshwar, ex-CFO of SpiceJet, for a perspective on the Indian aviation industry.

View Report

We hosted a call with the management of Valin Steel (Valin), amongst the top 5 steel producers in China.

View Report

The RBI has issued final guidelines to strengthen corporate governance and encourage professionalisation of management teams in banks.

View Report

We hosted Robert Meyer, an expert on natural rubber (NR). According to Meyer, NR prices are headed for a structural rise amidst a global GDP recovery and short supply situation.

View Report

Our logistics coverage has rebounded from the black swan Covid event of H1FY21.

View Report

The SC has lifted its stay on tagging of NPAs but we expect slippages to be lower in Q4FY21 as banks have recognised a bulk of the Covid-related stress in their proforma numbers.

View Report

Takeaways from our interactions with non-listed MFI players in the states of Assam and West Bengal for a ground-level perspective on the microfinance climate in these states.

View Report

Key takeaways from our meeting with Arun Kumar, CEO of Kreate Energy, a top 3 player in the Indian power trading market.

View Report

We expect our building material coverage to report robust YoY growth in Q4FY21 aided by a lockdown-hit base quarter and demand revival.

View Report

We expect a mixed revenue performance from our auto universe in Q4FY21.

View Report

Zomato’s latest pre-IPO funding round elevates its valuation to US$ 5.4bn vs. US$ 3.9bn in Dec’20, on the back of (1) recovery from the initial Covid-led volume slump, (2) improving unit economics, and (3) successful listing of US counterpart DoorDash.

View Report

Key takeaways from our recent interaction with industry players for a perspective on economic activity revival and potential fallout from the renewed lockdown in Maharashtra.

View Report

We expect a resilient Q4FY21 marked by healthy QoQ dollar revenue growth (2.5-5.3%) for most of our IT coverage, aided by modest cross-currency tailwinds (~60bps).

View Report

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in Mar’21 with healthy growth (~2.3x YoY), off a soft base due to the lockdown announced in Mar’20.

View Report

Key takeaways from our meeting with Sanjay Ladiwala, a renowned cement industry expert associated with the business since 1973.

View Report

We interacted with the senior management of various banks for a perspective on the Supreme Court's verdict vacating the interim relief on NPA recognition and its directive on the 'interest on interest' issue.

View Report

Accenture’s (ACN) Q2FY21 dollar revenue surpassed guidance by US$ 140mn, rising 8% YoY and 5.4% CC.

View Report

With the acceleration in digital demand post Covid-19, reskilling has gained prominence for IT players.

View Report

Pharma valuations have course corrected in last 6M/3M with BSE healthcare index underperforming Nifty by 20%/11% due to sector rotation amid receding Covid headwinds and reemergence of FDA risk while earnings were resilient.

View Report

Prices of natural rubber and crude derivatives have skyrocketed 25% and 55% respectively since Oct’20.

View Report

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in February with healthy YoY growth (+21%).

View Report

Q3FY21 sequential revenue growth and margins for the IT services sector have been robust, surpassing our already-optimistic estimates.

View Report

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in January with healthy YoY growth.

View Report

Input costs make up 65-70% of revenues for most auto manufacturers.

View Report

Given higher quarterly dispatches, we expect Q3FY21 revenues to expand for our auto universe.

View Report

Q3FY21 is yet another quarter where management commentary will be watched even more keenly than reported earnings.

View Report

Aggregate revenue of our logistics coverage universe is forecast to grow 11% YoY in Q3FY21 vs. a 1% uptick in Q2.

View Report

Key takeaways from our interaction with an expert on the credit card industry.

View Report

We expect a strong Q3 for LPC (flu, India recovery), SUNP (specialty) and DRRD (US launches) with QoQ growth in EBITDA and margins, partly aided by cost savings.

View Report

We expect most of our building material coverage to clock YoY growth aided by demand revival.

View Report

We hosted Amit Sharma, MD – Miraj Entertainment, on a call with select investors.

View Report

Passenger vehicles continued their upward trajectory in December with healthy YoY and MoM growth.

View Report

We expect Q3FY21 to be resilient with a healthy QoQ dollar growth (2-4%) for most of our IT coverage, helped by modest cross-currency tailwinds (~35bps).

View Report

Key takeaways from our interaction with a power sector expert.

View Report

We hosted Dr. Deepak Hedge, Chief Technology Officer, EOC Pharma – Shanghai, as part of Pharma expert series (Virtual) last week.

View Report

Accenture's (ACN) Q1 dollar revenues beat the guided range by US$ 200mn, up 4% YoY and 2% CC.

View Report

Most high frequency indicators maintained their upward trajectory in November.

View Report

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory in November with healthy YoY growth propelled by festive demand.

View Report

Natural gas consumption surged to 160.5mmscmd in October (+5% YoY, +12.6% MoM), boosted by the industrials segment.

View Report

Most key deal wins and partnerships in Q3FY21 so far have been in the blockchain and digital transformation space.

View Report

PSU stocks have had a most forgettable year in 2020 with the Nifty PSE index declining ~30% since Jan’20.

View Report

After a sturdy Sep’20, most high frequency indicators continued on the path of recovery in October as well.

View Report

India's petroleum product consumption jumped 15% MoM (+2% YoY) to 17.8mmt in October as fuels across segments exhibited resurgent growth in tandem with the Indian economy's emergence from the world's strictest lockdown.

View Report

Q2FY21 has been a much-awaited recovery quarter for Indian IT, exhibiting a V-shaped rebound marked by growth and margin outperformance across the sector.

View Report

Natural gas consumption declined to 142.6mmscmd (–8% YoY, –4% MoM) in September as lockdowns across states hampered demand.

View Report

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory in October with healthy YoY growth, ahead of our estimates.

View Report

The earnings outlook for oil marketing companies (OMC) remains buoyant as marketing margins are holding at elevated levels.

View Report

During Q2FY21, most OEMs have built up dealer inventory on hopes of a strong revival in the upcoming festive season.

View Report

We expect building material companies under our coverage to witness significant operational improvement QoQ given the gradual easing of Covid restrictions.

View Report

We expect positive Q2 surprises from Cipla (led by gProventil, Remdesivir), ALPM (US, EU), Laurus and Alkem (better seasonality).

View Report

Aggregate revenue of our logistics coverage universe is expected to decline by 5% YoY in Q2FY21, a marked improvement from the 25% drop in Q1, aided by a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions.

View Report

Q2FY21 has been another volatile quarter for the energy sector, with oil and spot LNG prices recovering from multiyear lows but spreads staying muted for cyclicals.

View Report

Q2FY21 is yet another quarter where clarity on asset quality will be keenly awaited amid pandemic uncertainty.

View Report

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved 'Natural Gas Marketing Reforms', with an objective to discover market price of gas from new producing fields through a transparent and competitive process.

View Report

Most high frequency indicators posted a strong YoY recovery in Sep’20.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in August declined to 148.8mmscmd (-7.8% YoY, 3.4% MoM), as ensuing lockdowns across states hampered demand.

View Report

We expect Q2FY21 to be the growth recovery quarter with most companies in our coverage universe showing low-mid single digit QoQ growth, barring few exceptions.

View Report

The recent rally across mid- and small-caps is yet to bring about a reversal of the long-term bearish trends that began in Jan’18.

View Report

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory, improving MoM in September.

View Report

As per latest RBI data, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by scheduled commercial banks (SCB) declined 18bps MoM to ~8.4% in August, driven by a ~30bps fall in rates at private banks.

View Report

Accenture’s (ACN) Q4FY20 dollar revenue was in line with the guided range of US$ 10.6bn-11bn, posting a decline of 1.4% QoQ and 1% CC.

View Report

We interacted with some multi-axle truck fleet owners.

View Report

Lead logistics indicators continued to improve in August, slowing their pace of decline vs. July – major port cargo fell 10% YoY (vs. –13% in July), container rail volumes dipped 8% (vs. –13%), and e-way bills contracted 3% (vs. –7%) – while IR’s freight volume grew 4% YoY (vs. –5%).

View Report

Natural gas consumption in July declined to 144mmscmd (–7% YoY, –16% MoM), as the reinstatement of Covid-19 lockdowns across states hampered demand.

View Report

We spoke with Mirae AMC CEO Swarup Mohanty recently.

View Report

Auto sales clocked an expectedly healthy recovery across segments in Aug’20, barring MHCVs and 3Ws.

View Report

While BFSI vertical revenues of Indian IT players contracted in Q1FY21, we expect a swift recovery to pre-Covid growth levels through FY21 on the back of (1) receding supply challenges and (2) steady technology budgets at large US banks.

View Report

After nearly six months of shutdown, movie halls in India were denied permission to reopen in September under the new Unlock 4.0 guidelines issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on 29 August.

View Report

Media articles suggest growing consolidation in the e-pharmacy chain, i.e. Reliance-Netmeds and PharmEasy-Medlife.

View Report

India’s multiplex industry is undergoing unprecedented hardships amid Covid-19 shutdowns.

View Report

RBI today introduced development policies along with the monetary policy, laying out new guidelines on the restructuring of personal loans – this has historically been a source of slippages and, together with extension of the MSME restructuring scheme, makes for a ticking time bomb in our view.

View Report

The central bank has provided a resolution framework that allows all banks, NBFCs and HFCs to cope with Covid-related stress, wherein all loans including personal (retail) loans can be restructured.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in June increased to 171.2mmscmd (+6% YoY, +9% MoM).

View Report

Despite recent setbacks, we expect the Indian tyre industry to grow at a 7% CAGR to ~Rs 720bn during FY20-FY23.

View Report

Auto sales improved MoM in July but remained weaker than the year-ago period.

View Report

The recent rally in broad market indices – reminiscent of a classic V-shaped recovery – has been restricted to select stocks.

View Report

We expect MUTH and MGFL to register strong AUM growth of 19% and 30% YoY respectively in Q1FY21 as a secular credit crunch and run-up in gold prices act as tailwinds.

View Report

Key industry indicators fell at a slower pace in June vs. April/May, implying that the worst of the pandemic may be behind us.

View Report

Oil & Gas appears to be one of the few sectors to have seen faster normalisation in fundamentals by end-Q1FY21.

View Report

Q1FY21 will be a non-event as consensus estimates and stock prices already bake in an abysmal quarter.

View Report

We believe the true picture of banks’ asset quality in Q1FY21 will be masked by the loan moratorium as this will rein in slippages.

View Report

We expect building material companies under our coverage to post an anaemic Q1FY21 as the Covid-19 lockdown has exacted a severe toll on business.

View Report

We expect a good Q1 for Cipla (led by OTC switch, gProventil), Alkem (deferred India sales) and LPC (Levo ramp-up) – cost savings can further aid higher margins QoQ.

View Report

During Q1FY21, PV sales nosedived ~80% YoY and 3W/2W volumes slumped ~70%.

View Report

The Q2CY20 ISG Index reflects stalled deal activity (ACV down 4.7% YoY) and a drop in managed services deal sourcing due to Covid-19.

View Report

As per latest RBI data, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by public sector banks (PSB) declined 26bps MoM to ~8.2% in May, whereas that for scheduled commercial banks (SCB) remained unchanged at 8.5% as private players managed to improve fresh lending rates by 30bps to 9.2%.

View Report

We expect a broad-based demand-led decline in revenue and margins for IT services players in Q1FY21 due to the Covid-19 impact.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in May increased to 157mmscmd (+7% YoY, +21% MoM).

View Report

Auto sales improved on a sequential basis in June but remained weak versus last year.

View Report

In a move seen as US election year rhetoric, new H1B visas have been suspended till Dec’20.

View Report

As the market adjusts to shifting expectations in a Covid-19 world, we maintain our negative stance on leveraged companies.

View Report

Global 5G rollout is estimated to offer a mega US$ 10bn business opportunity for Indian IT players.

View Report

After unprecedented declines in April, key trade indicators slumped yet again in May – major port traffic nosedived 23% YoY (–21% in Apr) and container rail volumes dropped 19% YoY (–14% in Apr).

View Report

We recently hosted a call with Abhinash Verma, Director General of Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

View Report

India’s petroleum product consumption surged 47% MoM (–21% YoY) to 14.6mmt in May’20 as fuels across segments exhibited resurgent growth in tandem with the Indian economy’s emergence from the world’s strictest lockdown.

View Report

Automotive production and sales are expected to plummet to multi-year lows in FY21 as pressures arising from the Covid-19 crisis engulf both demand and supply channels.

View Report

As per latest RBI data, banks' fresh lending rates declined 52bps MoM to 8.3% in Apr'20, registering the steepest ever fall since Oct'14.

View Report

The SC in a recent hearing expressed concerns over banks charging interest on loans under moratorium but has sought the government's reply on the matter.

View Report

Auto sales in May remained muted owing to lockdown restrictions across major parts of the country.

View Report

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that growth in non-food credit remained sluggish at 7.3% in Apr’20.

View Report

RBI today announced further measures aimed at easing financial stress

View Report

As the coronavirus continues to spread, Gartner now expects worldwide IT spends to decline 8% in CY20 vs. growth of 5% forecast earlier.

View Report

The Centre’s Rs 20tn stimulus package provides impetus to structural reform initiatives that will bear fruit over the long term, but offer little immediate respite.

View Report

While concerns about the travel & transport vertical (<5% revenue share for tier-I India IT) are at the forefront, we believe retail – the second largest vertical with 14% share – will be the worst hit for India IT services.

View Report

Trade barometers registered unprecedented declines in Apr’20 as manufacturing activity came to a standstill amid the national lockdown.

View Report

As part of its Rs 20tn stimulus package, the Centre today unveiled ~Rs 6tn in liquidity-related support, primarily targeting MSMEs and NBFCs.

View Report

As per latest RBI data, fresh lending yields continued to decline, with a 40bps MoM drop in Mar'20 to 8.8%.

View Report

India’s petroleum product consumption plunged 46% YoY (–38% MoM) to 10mmt in Apr’20, as all fuels except LPG saw severe demand erosion.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in Q4FY20 increased a mere 2.6% YoY to 150mmscmd as offtake inched up across sectors and power demand dropped – CGD (28.6mmscmd, +10% YoY), other industrials (50.6mmscmd, +8.2% YoY) and fertiliser (45.4mmscmd, +4% YoY).

View Report

The Centre has hiked excise duties on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 and Rs 13 per litre respectively as it strives to balance the fiscal math, translating to an estimated windfall of ~Rs 2tn for the exchequer.

View Report

The GCC today imposed anti-dumping duty on ceramic tile imports from India and China from 6 June 2020 for five years.

View Report

Weak dispatches in Q4FY20 due to BS-IV inventory liquidation and the March lockdown saw aggregate FY20 volumes declining at record rates.

View Report

Already reeling under a domestic consumption slowdown, the Indian logistics industry has now taken a severe blow from Covid-19-led trade disruptions.

View Report

RBI has announced key relief measures for NBFCs today, viz. targeted long-term repo operations (TLTRO) 2.0, special refinance facilities for All India Financial Institutions (AIFIs), and a one-year extension for real estate loans.

View Report

The RBI today announced the following additional liquidity measures to address near-term concerns amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

View Report

The oil price crash has been a main feature of Q4FY20.

View Report

We hosted a call with China Yongda Automobile Services (Yongda), one of the leading luxury car dealers in China with over 200 outlets catering to marquee brands such as BMW, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Audi and JLR.

View Report

Building material companies under our coverage are likely to post a dull Q4FY20 as tough market conditions have been further accentuated by the lockdown in end-March, thus taking a toll on volumes.

View Report

We expect a modest fourth quarter for our banking coverage followed by a sharp credit slowdown in Q1FY21 as the lockdown impact unravels.

View Report

We expect BAF, MUTH and MGFL to register strong AUM growth in Q4FY20 even as efficient opex and risk management keep profits buoyant.

View Report

We expect the ongoing lockdown to severely hamper demand for building materials in H1FY21 with some revival only from H2.

View Report

As per ISG, Q1CY20 managed services deals – a more relevant indicator for Indian IT services players – were on track for 9-10% YoY growth pre-Covid-19.

View Report

We expect DRRD, LPC (Levo ramp-up + Losartan/HCTZ), and DIVI (leverage post FDA audit) to report a good quarter, with higher margins QoQ for LPC/DIVI (decline for DRRD on R&D cost increase).

View Report

Mar’20 volume growth was weak for all automotive segments as the Covid-19 outbreak followed by plant shutdowns hit production and sales.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in Feb'20 increased 10% YoY to 160mmscmd as offtake climbed across sectors (except power) – fertiliser (47mmscmd, +9% YoY), CGD (30.4mmscmd, +17% YoY), and other industrials (52.9mmscmd, +13.7% YoY).

View Report

We recently interacted with a number of logistics companies – listed and unlisted – as well as industry experts.

View Report

India’s banking sector is battling lashing headwinds ranging from anaemic credit demand to elevated bad debt and Covid-19 fears.

View Report

Central banks globally are bracing for a worldwide economic shutdown which heightens the risk of a protracted downside in global markets.

View Report

Asset management companies (AMC) are a play on the growing financialisation of savings in India.

View Report

Recent market correction, driven by global turmoil, has put Nifty valuations (at 15.5x one-year forward) at an attractive level.

View Report

The RBI and government of India have superseded Yes Bank's (YES) board and placed the bank under moratorium from 5 Mar 2020.

View Report

Feb’20 volume growth remained negative for most key segments, barring tractors.

View Report

Trade indicators exhibited mixed trends in Jan’20.

View Report

Jan’20 volume trends were mixed across segments and players based on stock levels and differing timelines for BS-VI production ramp-up.

View Report

Overall fund allocation for key infrastructure sectors has declined 4% YoY in Union Budget FY21 to Rs 5.5tn, with gross budgetary support at Rs 2.7tn (+10% YoY) – the latter includes Rs 1.6tn (+7% YoY) towards roads and railways.

View Report

The coronavirus outbreak in China is expected to exact a heavy toll on the global travel, transport and hospitality (TTH) industry.

View Report

The auto industry slump over the past five quarters has seen the Nifty Auto Index plunging ~40% over the 12 months to Sep’19.

View Report

Trade indicators exhibited mixed trends in Dec’19.

View Report

Logistics companies in our coverage are expected to report a tepid Q3 as domestic and EXIM trade headwinds continue unabated.

View Report

Moderate execution due to prolonged monsoon and lack of order wards in the past year is expected to contain revenue growth at ~9% YoY for our infrastructure universe in Q3FY20.

View Report

Q3FY20 is likely to be a soft quarter in terms of business momentum as systemic loan growth has remained lackluster.

View Report

Building material companies under our coverage are expected to post a tepid Q3FY20 as market conditions remained challenging, thus taking a toll on volumes.

View Report

Cyclical business fundamentals aggravated in Q3FY20 – Singapore GRMs crashed to US$ 1.63/bbl (-75% QoQ), and petrochemical cracks declined ~20% QoQ.

View Report

DRRD, LPC, Sun & Alkem to report strong quarters both for US and India.

View Report

The finance ministry’s Rs 102tn National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) for India over FY20-FY25 comes as a major boost for the sector.

View Report

High frequency indicators for the logistics industry remained subdued in Nov’19, but have improved incrementally vis-à-vis the past few months.

View Report

Our analysis of growth trends over the last 12 years indicates a risk of protracted near-term softness for India’s IT services industry in the runup to US presidential elections in Nov’20.

View Report

We hosted Kaushik Deb – Research Fellow at KAPSARC (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center), Riyadh, for investor meetings in Mumbai.

View Report

Credit growth for the fortnight ended 8 November slipped to a two-year low of 8.1% YoY, as per RBI data.

View Report

High frequency indicators, a harbinger of the logistics industry’s performance, worsened further in Oct’19, indicating a deepening slowdown.

View Report

All the three OMCs – IOCL, BPCL and HPCL – reported Q2 FY20 earnings well below estimates, impacted by low GRMs (US$3.8-US$3/bbl), under- performing the benchmark Singapore (US$6.5/bbl).

View Report

At analyst meetings hosted separately by INFO and HCLT, we noted evolving digital capabilities and growing digital contract sizes at both players.

View Report

The government has eased fuel retailing norms, allowing non-oil companies to set up petrol pumps in India to increase investment and competition in the sector.

View Report

We met senior officials of the Maharashtra State Co-Operative Sugar Factories Federation (MSCSFF) which has 190 co-operative sugar mills operating in the state as members.

View Report

High frequency indicators, a harbinger of the logistics industry’s performance, worsened in Sep’19, marking the end of a sedate Q2FY20.

View Report

Cyclical business fundamentals showed mixed trends in Q2FY20 – Singapore GRMs surged to US$ 6.5/bbl (+88% QoQ), while petrochemical cracks declined ~10% QoQ.

View Report

RBI data shows that credit growth for the fortnight ended 27 September slipped to a three-year low of 8.8% YoY.

View Report

Poor project execution due to the extended monsoons is expected to contain revenue growth at ~15% YoY for our infrastructure universe in Q2FY20.

View Report

High frequency indicators (EXIM trade, rail freight and major port traffic), corroborated by industry checks, signal a feeble demand environment for logistics services.

View Report

Building material companies under our coverage are expected to post a modest Q2FY20 as tough market conditions exact a toll on volumes.

View Report

We expect Alkem and DRRD to report a good quarter with largely stable US sales QoQ.

View Report

ISG's Q3 Index reflects an uptick in deal activity and a return to double-digit growth.

View Report

Despite global trade, revenue growth for tier-I Indian IT services players has held steady for the last three quarters.

View Report

We attended an analyst meet hosted by NHAI on Bharatmala Pariyojana phase-I (BMP).

View Report

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that growth in non-food credit slowed to a 17-month low of 9.8% in Aug’19, hobbled by lower growth across segments.

View Report

Gold loans being self-liquidating and well-collateralised, India’s top-2 gold finance NBFCs, MUTH and MGFL, have found favour with debt/liquid funds post the IL&FS crisis.

View Report

The global transition to electric vehicles is a potent threat to oil demand growth over the long term, estimated to shrink oil consumption from road transportation at a ~0.5% CAGR over 2018-40.

View Report

Accenture posted record bookings worth US$ 12.9bn in Q4FY19, including 16 US$ 100mn+ TCV deals, besides guiding for 5-8% YoY CC revenue growth for FY20.

View Report

We spoke with V K Sharma – CGM (Land Acquisition) and Siba Narayan Nayak, CGM (Finance) of NHAI, for an update on land acquisition and order award targets for FY20.

View Report

The corporate tax cut provides much needed cheer for banks under our coverage – we raise FY21-FY22 earnings by 2-14% and ROE estimates by 30-220bps, but believe the near-term impact is already in the price.

View Report

RBI data shows that credit and deposit growth for the fortnight ended 13 September were both weak at 10% YoY.

View Report

We upgrade FY20 earnings by 2-11% for midcap companies under our coverage post the recent corporate tax cut.

View Report

Our industry interactions suggest that while the recent corporate tax sop will aid earnings of select logistics companies within our coverage, the benefits may not be proportional to the cut as large corporate clients likely negotiate for better pricing.

View Report

The tax rate cut announced by the government will be earnings accretive by 6-15% for energy companies in our coverage universe.

View Report

The corporate tax reduction announced last week will bump up standalone EPS by 2-13% for our infrastructure universe over FY20-FY22, with HGIEL benefiting the most.

View Report

The corporate tax cut from 30% to 22% (including surcharge from 34.9% to 25.2%) effective FY20 could spur an 8-15% earnings upgrade for pharma MNCs (Not Rated) and Diagnostic players/hospitals (Not Rated), as well as a marginal 3-4% benefit for Divi’s Labs among our Indian pharma coverage.

View Report

High frequency indicators for logistics remained dull in Aug’19. Cargo volume growth at major ports softened to 1.2% YoY as a weak EXIM trajectory (–10.6% YoY) took a toll.

View Report

We hosted 23 corporates from the BFSI and midcap sectors for meetings with 50+ institutional clients at our conference in Mumbai on 13 September.

View Report

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that non-food credit growth remained subdued at 11.4% YoY in Jul’19.

View Report

Natural gas consumption in Jul'19 increased 4.8% YoY to 155.1mmscmd, as offtake increased across sectors (with the exception of power).

View Report

In a mega move towards consolidation, the Finance Minister has announced the merger of 10 PSBs into 4 new entities, albeit with no definite timelines or swap ratios.

View Report

India's finance ministry has imposed provisional anti-dumping duty (ADD) on CPVC resin/compounds imported from China and Korea for a period of six months starting 26 August.

View Report

RBI data shows subdued 12% YoY credit growth for the fortnight ended 02 August and stable 10% deposit growth.

View Report

High frequency indicators exhibited a mixed trend in Jul’19.

View Report

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment for Jun’19 indicates that non-food lending increased at a subdued 11.1% YoY for the month.

View Report

RBI data shows that credit growth for the fortnight ended 05 July...

View Report