Research Reports

23-Nov-22

Diversified Financials: Expert call – Bright outlook for credit card industry

Rapid rise in India’s credit card spends and cards outstanding over the last five years; millennials to form the next leg of growth

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22-Nov-22

Oil & Gas: Unified gas pipeline tariff to deepen the market

PNGRB targets unified gas pipeline tariff from Apr’23; adherence to proposed timeline a key monitorable

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21-Nov-22

BOBCAPS Research | [Sector Report] Logistics: Full throttle ahead

Government-led manufacturing push, fast-growing consumer demand and boom in 3PL to bolster logistics sector topline

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21-Nov-22

[Sector Report] Capital Goods: On the cusp of a capex supercycle

India nearing a new capex supercycle, in our view, with private spends likely coinciding with ongoing public outlay

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15-Nov-22

India Strategy: Q2FY23 Review – Raw material costs cool off

Nifty 200 earnings came in moderately ahead of consensus in Q2FY23, but only ~40% of companies delivered a beat, similar to Q1

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10-Nov-22

Metals & Mining: Aluminium price floor emerging – Alcoa

Aluminium price floor building up with a tighter physical market, but near-term upside capped by high demand uncertainty

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09-Nov-22

Consumer Durables: Q2FY23 Review – Walking a tight rope with margins

Price hikes deferred beyond Q2 to maintain market share/topline; commodity deflation partly negated by adverse currency

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01-Nov-22

Consumer Durables: Gujarat electronics policy to boost localisation of appliances

New Gujarat electronics policy aims to build an ecosystem for electronics manufacturing in India and enable import substitution

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31-Oct-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap - Global headwinds plateauing

Nifty underperformed global peers in October; banks and IT outperformed, pharma and FMCG lagged

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20-Oct-22

Metals & Mining: Aluminium market in need of supply rebalancing

We summarise the read-across from Alcoa’s Q3 results and our global channel checks

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14-Oct-22

Metals & Mining: China demand to pick up but margins to take longer – Baosteel

Baosteel expects steel demand recovery in China to commence from Oct-Nov’22 but weak margins to continue into Q4CY22

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13-Oct-22

Pharmaceuticals: Price hike led growth sustain IPM growth amidst weak volumes

IPM grew 6.6% in Sep’22 on MAT basis (6.2% for the month) led by pricing (4.8%) and launch-led growth (2.5%) while volume shrank 0.8%

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10-Oct-22

Metals & Mining: Q2FY23 Preview – Weak quarter; look for margin stabilisation in H2

Expect Q2 EBITDA to drop over 50% QoQ for Indian steel majors as margins fall well below mid-cycle levels

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10-Oct-22

Building Materials: Q2FY23 Preview – A bumpy quarter; revival likely in H2

Expect a subdued Q2FY23 owing to weak demand in Jul-Aug’22, though September did see some traction ahead of the festive season

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06-Oct-22

Consumer Durables: Q2FY23 Preview – Flat quarter ahead

Expect modest 12% YoY topline growth and flattish net profit for our consumer durables coverage

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30-Sep-22

Diversified Financials: Credit card spends robust; new measures consumer friendly

Credit card spends clocked in at Rs 1tn for each of the five months of FY23 – a positive surprise; outlook strong

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30-Sep-22

Diversified Financials: Q2FY23 Preview – Expect robust growth traction across segments

IIFL Wealth projected to post Q2 AUM/PAT growth of 15%/27% YoY on higher operating leverage, with stronger recurring flows

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30-Sep-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – India on a relatively better wicket

Nifty 50 fell 3.7% in Sep’22 against declines of 8.0% for the S&P 500 and 11.8% for the EM aggregate index amid rising recession fears

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30-Sep-22

Consumer Durables: Sep’22 Roundup – Demand indicators strong

Positive momentum in housing and jobs creation augurs well for long-term demand of consumer durables

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29-Sep-22

Metals & Mining: Market rebalancing underway – ArcelorMittal

Global steel spreads saw sharp compression in Q3CY22, per MT. We expect Indian steel margins to bottom out in the Sep quarter

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28-Sep-22

Plastic Products: Expect revival in H2 but a muted FY23

Leading pipe companies likely to report high inventory losses in Q2FY23 owing to freefall in PVC prices (trading below Rs 90/kg)

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27-Sep-22

Oil & Gas: EU Sanctions a plausible upside risk to crude – Breamer

Crude price has eased amid the global economic slowdown but implementation of European sanctions poses an upside risk in our view

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26-Sep-22

Consumer Durables: Vedanta-Foxconn JV to help localization of appliances

Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor JV a key long-term positive for consumer durables sector as it marks the onset of local semiconductor supply

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22-Sep-22

Building Materials: Expert call – Demand moderation, cost rise may hurt Q2 margins

Rising gas costs compelling Morbi ceramic manufacturers to switch to propane (~10% cheaper), with 300 of 850 units already converted

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21-Sep-22

BOBCAPS Research | Consumer Durables: Formal jobs data encouraging

Employment generation in India’s formal sector hit a record 1.8mn in July vs. a monthly run-rate of 0.7mn over the past four years, per EPFO

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20-Sep-22

Consumer Durables: Real estate uptrend heralds stronger durables demand

Housing sales – a key demand indicator for consumer durables – on long-term secular growth path, per RBI pricing data

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19-Sep-22

Logistics: National Logistics Policy – Spearheading efficiency

India’s new National Logistics Policy aims to improve the logistics ecosystem by addressing policy gaps to lower costs

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19-Sep-22

Consumer Durables: Powering down – Appliances fuel energy savings

India is among the few countries to fulfil its energy intensity mitigation target up to 2020

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13-Sep-22

Metals & Mining: Ferrous Chartbook – Steel margins to stabilise over H2FY23

Global majors expect China to play a countercyclical role with its ability to run stimulus and support steel demand

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13-Sep-22

India Strategy: Macro & Micro – Bear up: Stick to the leaders

Stiff global headwinds have intensified concerns of a potential bear market among the investment community

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12-Sep-22

Consumer Durables: Festive cheer likely to revitalise demand

Expect a strong festive season for consumer durables over Aug-Oct (typically 35-40% of annual sales)

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08-Sep-22

Metals & Mining: India Steel Conference 2022 – Demand outlook positive

Experts view at the India Steel Conference 2022 suggest 7-8% steel demand growth over the medium term supported by progress on NIP

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05-Sep-22

Metals & Mining: China’s Q2 steel results signal slower demand recovery

China’s Q2CY22 steel sector performance flags subpar demand in Q3 and only a gradual recovery from Q4

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30-Aug-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – Indian market resilient

Nifty 50 returned 3.5% in Aug’22, outperforming developed and some emerging market peers

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24-Aug-22

Consumer Durables: Crisil webinar takeaways – Secular growth to continue

Consumer durables sector to post sustained volume growth of 5-14% over five years, per Crisil. ACs to grow fastest at ~14%, TVs slowest at ~5%

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18-Aug-22

India Strategy: Q1FY23 Review – Cost pressures behind us

Nifty 200 earnings were moderately below consensus, with only 40% of companies delivering a beat in Q1FY23

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10-Aug-22

Consumer Durables: Q1FY23 Review – A bumpy quarter

Durables players had to negotiate waning demand, RM inflation and SG&A cost normalisation; cooling of RM cost in late-Q1 offered some respite

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04-Aug-22

Power: Expert call – GNA a potential gamechanger

Proposed general network access (GNA) policy, which places onus of transmission on buyers rather than generators, a key policy shift

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29-Jul-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – India remains better placed than most markets

Nifty 50 rose 8.2% in Jul’22 with mid-caps outperforming large- and small-caps. Index valuation is now broadly in line with historical average

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27-Jul-22

Banking: Takeaways from BOB Banking Conference – Digitisation is key

Imported inflation a concern but India still better placed than global peers; nominal GDP growth equals credit growth

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21-Jul-22

Metals & Mining: Aluminium – Read-across from Alcoa results

Alcoa’s aluminium commentary sets a positive tone; management continues to see market in deficit in CY22

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11-Jul-22

Metals & Mining: Q1FY23 Preview – Buffeted by headwinds

Metals players likely to post sharp EBITDA decline QoQ in Q1 amid double whammy of margin and volume contraction

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08-Jul-22

Consumer Durables: Q1FY23 Preview – Base effect in play

Q1FY23 to be exceptionally strong given weak Covid-hit base quarter last year, with summer products set to shine in particular

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07-Jul-22

Building Materials: Q1FY23 Preview – Unusually challenging times; stick with leaders

Increased input costs in tiles (gas cost) and wood panel (timber) to impact margins; but strong volume growth YoY on low base

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01-Jul-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – Valuations now in line with long term trends

Valuation will likely inch towards long term trend as market resets from an easy liquidity framework to a traditional valuation matrix, in our view

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15-Jun-22

Metals & Mining: Expert call with Alcoa – Supply deficit to prop up aluminium price

Aluminium price is being supported by deficits as supply disruptions outpace demand weakness

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13-Jun-22

Pharmaceuticals: Management meet: Rising Covid cases cast cloud over FDA approvals

Managements of DRRD, ARBP and LAURUS confident of near-term growth drivers but see many moving parts in long run

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13-Jun-22

Consumer Durables: A case for larger companies

FY22 sales of larger companies outpaced medium/small/micro players, per a BOB Economics study of 2,000+ companies across sectors

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06-Jun-22

India Strategy: Q4FY22 Review – Heightened cost pressures

Nifty 200 companies largely met consensus estimates at the aggregate level, with only 38% of them managing to beat earnings forecasts

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01-Jun-22

Consumer Durables: FY22 Review – Margin gains elusive

War, inflation, supply chain disruptions and Covid all dented consumer durable margins, but likely to be transient

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01-Jun-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – Mixed outlook

Indian benchmarks underperformed their global peers in May; locally, autos, consumers and financials outperformed

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30-May-22

India Strategy: Market Outlook – Navigating index peaks and troughs

We analyse sector out/underperformance during the peak and trough phases of a market cycle

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25-May-22

Media: Expert call takeaways – Industry staging a swift recovery

Media industry seeing robust recovery as consumers are returning to theatres in large numbers and spending more

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23-May-22

Metals & Mining: Duty changes put near-term pressure on domestic steel margins

Levy or increase of export duty to improve domestic availability of steel products, iron ore and pellets

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17-May-22

Consumer Durables: EESL’s retail push unlikely to shake up the market

EESL plans to expand its footprint in B2C retail with products such as smart bulbs, energy-efficient ACs and fans

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13-May-22

Ceramics: Expert call – Demand moderation, cost inflation to hit Q1 margins

Rising gas costs driving Morbi ceramic manufacturers to switch to propane which is 5% cheaper

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06-May-22

Metals & Mining: Expert call with Valin Steel on China steel outlook

Valin Steel’s CY22 outlook points to stable steel margins in Q2 and Q3CY22

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02-May-22

Metals & Mining: Ferrous – ­Read-across from Baosteel and Vale analyst calls

China’s steel demand recovery delayed to end-Q2CY22 but full-year growth outlook still achievable

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29-Apr-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – India likely to outshine EMs

Nifty forward P/E is now close to its 5Y average though a modest cut in estimates looks likely post Q4FY22 results

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28-Apr-22

Power: Expert call – Power shortage to persist near term

India’s ongoing power crisis stems from a coal shortage due to inadequate planning; situation to continue till hydropower ramps up

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22-Apr-22

Metals & Mining: Ferrous – Read-across from production results of iron ore majors

Iron ore price likely to remain elevated through the June quarter as supply issues persist

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21-Apr-22

Metals & Mining: Aluminium – Read-across from Alcoa results

Alcoa’s Jan-Mar quarter EBITDA improved 36% QoQ in aluminium but declined 48% in alumina; guiding for a stronger Apr-Jun quarter

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21-Apr-22

India Strategy: Climate Action – Coal merely a band-aid for Europe

Europe’s continuing reluctance to enter into long-term contracts for LNG highlights its resolve to green up its energy sources

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13-Apr-22

Pharmaceuticals: Q4FY22 Preview – Domestic business to lead growth in Q4

With no meaningful FDA approvals, US generic sales growth for our pharma coverage to be tepid in Q4; Russia-Ukraine war to hurt ROW/EM sales

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12-Apr-22

Ceramics & Gas: Expert call – Demand moderation and cost inflation to persist

Gas demand from Morbi ceramic cluster has plummeted but could recover partially in near term with potential increase in propane prices

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11-Apr-22

Building Materials: Q4FY22 Preview – Commodity inflation and muted volumes to play spoilsport

Expect a tepid Q4 given volume losses due to the third Covid wave in Jan’22 and elections in Feb’22; some demand pickup seen in March

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06-Apr-22

Technology & Internet: Q4FY22 Preview – Demand unhindered but margins to contract QoQ

We expect most of our IT coverage to perform well in Q4, with 2.5-5% QoQ CC topline growth, and mid-tier players likely to outshine tier-I

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05-Apr-22

Plastic Products: Near term pain; but long-term Structural Growth intact

High RM cost to weigh on margins as HDPE/LDPE prices have risen by 9%/17% YoY during Q4FY22

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31-Mar-22

Wood Panels: MDF remains a strong growth driver

MDF growth continue to outpace plywood led by strong OEM demand, increasing applications and lower imports

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31-Mar-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – Commodity prices appear to have peaked

Global commodity prices (ex-agri) have likely peaked in Mar’22 unless the Russia-Ukraine war escalates and/or sanctions are widened

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30-Mar-22

Metals & Mining: Expert call with Baosteel on China steel outlook

Baosteel’s CY22 steel outlook for China points to market stabilisation with modest 2% dip in consumption and lower net crude steel exports

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21-Mar-22

Pharmaceuticals: Valuations slump as Covid fears ebb; prefer resilient models

Return of higher operating costs as global economies reopen and rationalisation of growth guidance have undermined pharma valuations

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17-Mar-22

Metals & Mining: Expert call – Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on coal markets

The conflict has exacerbated seaborne coal tightness with rail and port logistics disruption in Russia reducing its coal export by 75% in Mar’22

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10-Mar-22

India Strategy: Macro & Micro – No winners in war

Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine has plunged a world only just emerging from Covid-led shocks into renewed uncertainty

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07-Mar-22

Oil & Gas: OMCs – Constructive view with a caveat

OMCs could face near-term pressure on marketing margins from the sharp rise in crude price

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28-Feb-22

India Strategy: Monthly Wrap – Market correction offers long-term buying opportunity

Record US inflation coupled with Russia’s attack on Ukraine induced a significant 4% market correction (Nifty 500) in Feb’22

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15-Feb-22

[Sector Report] Pharmaceuticals: mRNA technology a threat to anti-HIV players

HIV vaccine development boosted by inclusion of the mRNA platform following its track record of rapid Covid-19 jab rollout

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14-Feb-22

India Strategy: Q3FY22 Review - Growth blunts cost inflation

84% of Nifty 200 stocks either beat or met Q3 consensus revenue estimates but less than 60% did so at the net income level

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01-Feb-22

India Strategy: FY23 Budget Review - Focus on investment

India’s FY23 budget continues a series of themes from previous budgets, including elevated capex outlay and easing of regulations

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24-Jan-22

Automobiles: Q3FY22 Preview - Weak volumes, RM headwinds continue to hamper bottomline

Dull festive season and muted participation from rural markets led to subdued volumes in Q3

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20-Jan-22

Automobiles: 2Ws - Pent-up demand push but electrification a challenge

Pent-up demand to buoy 2W volumes in FY23E but sales likely to peak within the next decade going by trends in other emerging markets

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20-Jan-22

India Strategy: FY23 Budget Preview - Trade-off between growth and consolidation

Given an improving Covid-19 situation, expect a path towards normalisation of deficit targets

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19-Jan-22

Building Materials: Growing on a Better Foundation

The organized building material expected to report healthy volume growth/earnings in CY22 with likely pick-up in housing sector

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13-Jan-22

Consumer Durables: Q3FY22 Preview - Volume revival on track but RM and other cost headwinds persist

Due to high base, continued RM inflation, we expect modest net income growth in Q3FY22 in the range of -13% to +20%

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13-Jan-22

IT Services: Demand strong; Infosys shines

Infosys and TCS outperformed already optimistic revenue growth expectations; Wipro’s 2.3% QoQ dollar revenue growth was a miss

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12-Jan-22

Technology & Internet: ISG Q4CY21 earnings call takeaways

Demand for IT services strong though significant headwinds also present in the form of high attrition and supply chain disruptions

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11-Jan-22

Technology & Internet: Q3FY22 Preview - Strong demand to offset seasonality

Q3FY22 expected to be a strong quarter despite seasonality due to high demand and a robust deal pipeline

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11-Jan-22

India Strategy: Macro & Micro - India at takeoff point

India poised for secular uptick in per capita income as underlying building blocks now largely in place

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03-Jan-22

Automobiles: TTMT gains 2nd position in PVs; CV recovery promising

MSIL’s domestic sales still hampered by chip crisis (-13% YoY in Dec); TTMT (+50%) and MM (+10%) continue to buck trend aided by launches

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27-Dec-21

Errata: Technology & Internet: CL Educate (not rated) – takeaways from management interaction

Career launcher (CL) is a leader in MBA and Law segment and is a challenger in Jobs segment

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24-Dec-21

Automobiles: Smoother road ahead but drive carefully

Growing middle / upper class to drive 4Ws demand. SUVs in particular to grow strongly but competition is higher versus hatchback segment

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16-Dec-21

Technology & Internet: Significant jump in FY22 growth guidance

Accenture (ACN; Y/E Aug) reported record YoY growth of 27% CC. Deal wins stood at record USD16.8bn.

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14-Dec-21

Technology & Internet: Takeaways from BOBCAPS Digital Conference

Connected people and enterprises are shaping India’s digital economy; structural drivers in place for robust, multiyear growth

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13-Dec-21

Logistics: Mid-term outlook improving; startups not yet a threat

Growth has continued: e-way bills are up 12%, FASTag up 54%, trade up 36% and rail container traffic up 13% in last three months on YoY basis

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07-Dec-21

Metals & Mining: Takeaways from call with NMDC

NMDC intends to offset pricing headwinds with volume ramp-up in H2FY22

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01-Dec-21

Automobiles: TTMT shines in PV/CVs again, headwinds continue for 2Ws

MSIL’s domestic sales still hampered by chip crisis (-18% YoY in Nov); TTMT (+38%) and MM (+7%) continue to buck trend aided by launches

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26-Nov-21

[Sector Report] Consumer Durables: Ride India’s middle class boom

An upper middle class growing 2.8x over 2018-30E and low ownership levels will spur new, upgrade and replacement demand for durables

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23-Nov-21

Metals & Mining: Ferrous Chartbook - Margins to gradually stabilise at healthy cycle average

While demand deceleration in China has resulted in price correction, we expect sharper production cuts to constrain exports

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14-Nov-21

India Strategy: Climate Action – COP26: Gradual tightening of climate targets

COP26 ends in Glasgow with emission cut commitments exceeding those made in Paris as part of COP21

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02-Nov-21

India Strategy: Climate Action – Taking the bull by the horns

India announces 2070 net zero target, exceeding the global community’s expectation in our view

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01-Nov-21

Automobiles: TTMT strong in PV/CV, 2W remain weak

4W sales in October hampered by chip crisis though TTMT did well. BJAUT’s 2W volumes fell 17% YoY while 3Ws recovered

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25-Oct-21

India Strategy: Climate Action - Climate colonialism

Historical emissions responsible for global warming – US, EU, China and Russia account for two-thirds of greenhouse gas dump

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23-Oct-21

Oil & Gas: Expert call – Near-term LNG price likely to stay above US$ 15/mmbtu

LNG price to remain well above US$ 15/mmbtu through Q1CY22 even assuming a normal winter and approval of Nord Stream-2 in Q1

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21-Oct-21

Metals & Mining: Ferrous Chartbook - Supply cuts in China offsetting demand contraction

Demand deceleration in China offset by sharp production cuts and their extension into Q1CY22

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21-Oct-21

Pharmaceuticals: Q2FY22 Preview Domestic performance holds the key in Q2FY22

Expect moderate 5.1% YoY topline growth from our pharma coverage in Q2FY22 on a high base

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19-Oct-21

Automobiles: India likely to mirror global EV adoption

EV 4W/2W share up to 14%/70% in key markets but regulatory support key as costs higher vs. ICE and charging infrastructure lacking

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12-Oct-21

Automobiles: Q2FY22 Preview - Volume uptick QoQ to support revenue but RM headwinds persist

Stronger QoQ dispatches across auto segments to boost Q2 topline; input cost and semiconductor supply headwinds continue

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11-Oct-21

Technology & Internet: Takeaways from call with recruitment expert

Shift in hiring trends due to Covid-19, including increased recruitment from smaller cities

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04-Oct-21

IT Services: Q2FY22 Preview – On a roll

Expect a robust Q2FY22 for our IT services coverage marked by dollar revenue growth of 3-8% QoQ and 14-40% YoY

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01-Oct-21

Automobiles: 4Ws hit by chip shortage; good pickup in CVs

4W sales weak in September due to chip crisis though TTMT did well. BJAUT’s 2W volumes fell 11% YoY while 3Ws recovered

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30-Sep-21

Power: IndiGrid call takeaways – Rs 120bn+ transmission opportunity

IndiGrid is an InvIT focused on interstate transmission assets, though up to 25% of its AUM can be in state transmission, solar and storage

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29-Sep-21

Power: Expert call – Power markets tight, distribution reforms positive

Short-term power price rally led by states vying for 24x7 supply, decline in hydro generation and plant shutdowns

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27-Sep-21

Power: Expert call – Legal aspects of draft electricity bill

Once Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2021, is enacted, states will have little choice but to implement it

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23-Sep-21

Technology & Internet: Accenture’s Q4FY21 growth at upper end of guidance

Good Q4FY21 performance from Accenture (Y/E Aug) with guidance of 12-15% CC growth in FY22

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20-Sep-21

Metals & Mining: Steel sector may face contagion risk from China property sector

Credit event at Evergrande has potential to spread contagion risk to property sector, though China can possibly manage the situation

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15-Sep-21

Metals & Mining: Ferrous Chartbook – Steel margins to soften only gradually

We launch our Ferrous Chartbook to track key global supply and demand drivers for the steel sector

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14-Sep-21

[SECTOR REPORT] Technology & Internet: Deep Dive 4 – 5G juggernaut gains momentum; BUY TECHM

Rebound in 5G rollout post Covid-led blip; set to reach ~1bn connections globally by CY22-CY23 and unlock growth opportunity for Indian IT

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08-Sep-21

Metals & Mining: Aluminium - Key takeaways from China aluminium webinar

We attended a webinar hosted by Antaike, a leading Chinese metals information provider

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08-Sep-21

Logistics: Expert call – Knight Frank on warehousing

Warehousing additions in India to clock 19% CAGR over FY21-FY26 fuelled by ecommerce, more localised spaces and manufacturing growth

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07-Sep-21

Power: Takeaways from call with Azure Power

Robust outlook on new projects and inorganic opportunities to drive strong growth with double-digit equity IRRs

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01-Sep-21

Power: Takeaways from call with Renew Power

RNW targets 18GW of capacity by FY25 through organic and inorganic opportunities as the market consolidates

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01-Sep-21

Automobiles: Aug’21 PV dispatches dip MoM, CVs and 2Ws rise marginally

PV dispatches in August hit by semiconductor shortage; expected to remain affected in coming months until supply is restored

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24-Aug-21

[Sector Report] Power: Distribution delicensing: A giant leap?

Proposed delicensing of distribution positive but key aspects such as wheeling charges and tariff caps will determine the outcome

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23-Aug-21

IT Services: Growth surprise reinforces buoyant demand

IT companies ex-TCS and HCLT outperformed optimistic growth expectations in Q1FY22

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18-Aug-21

Internet: Key takeaways from digital marketing expert call

Independent, performance-oriented digital marketing platforms can take on Google-Facebook duopoly through customisation

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17-Aug-21

[Sector Report] IT Services: On cloud nine

Pandemic-fuelled cloud adoption to raise enterprise cloud spending at 28% CAGR to US$ 2.4tn by 2026, per Gartner

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16-Aug-21

[Sector Report] Metals & Mining: Disciplined capital allocation key to improving payout – Prefer TATA, JSP

Indian steel margins expected to remain elevated near term but revert to mean in longer run

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13-Aug-21

Power: Expert call with Vinay Rustagi, MD, Bridge to India

Renewable sector has several tailwinds. Intermittency will be handled by demand-side management, policy and ultimately storage

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13-Aug-21

[Sector Report] Insurance: Ample headroom for growth – prefer IPRU

Low insurance coverage, positive working-class demographics and Covid-19 tailwinds to spur growth for India’s life insurers

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02-Aug-21

Automobiles: Jul’21 PV and CV dispatches rise MoM, 2Ws flat

Most auto segments saw modest MoM dispatches in July, barring tractors (-45% MoM); PV and 2W exports healthy

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15-Jul-21

[Sector Report] Logistics: Structural drivers yet to take root – prefer MAHLOG, VRLL

Structural growth drivers such as shift to organised players, outsourcing/3PL and manufacturing scale-up are yet to materialise

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14-Jul-21

[Sector Report] Internet: Looking beyond the dream rally – prefer AFFLE

Rapid increase in India’s smartphone and internet penetration shaping new business opportunities backed by structural growth narrative

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12-Jul-21

Building Materials: Tepid base to enable strong growth YoY

Expect QoQ decline but robust YoY growth from our building materials coverage in Q1FY22 aided by lockdown-hit base quarter

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12-Jul-21

Automobiles: Q1FY22 Preview Rising input cost and lower dispatches to depress earnings

Weaker QoQ dispatches in PVs, CVs, 2Ws and 3Ws to impact topline; rising input cost pressure and supply issues to compound woes

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06-Jul-21

IT Services: Q1FY22 preview – expect a strong start to FY22E

We expect robust Q1FY22 marked by QoQ dollar revenue growth of 1.5% to 11.4%; wage revision to impact operating margins

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05-Jul-21

Oil & Gas: OMCs – Prefer HPCL over BPCL and IOCL

Positive view on oil marketing companies with earnings supported by post-Covid recovery, potential BPCL divestment

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01-Jul-21

Automobiles: June’21 dispatches reflecting opening up of economy

Most OEMs reported a sharp jump MOM. Tractors and PVs report normalcy in their dispatches led by lower dealer inventories

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30-Jun-21

Metals & Mining: Expert call with Rusal on global aluminium outlook

We hosted a call with the IR team of Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China with a global footprint across 20 countries

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24-Jun-21

IT Services: Accenture’s stellar show to energise Indian tech stocks

Accenture (ACN) reported a stellar Q3FY21 performance and raised its full-year growth guidance

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24-Jun-21

Power: RIL’s Rs 750bn endorsement of renewables

RIL has announced a Rs 750bn foray into developing solar, storage and hydrogen technologies

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21-Jun-21

Power: IEEFA call takeaways: Renewable energy growth to eclipse coal

Renewables will continue to outgrow coal due to lower tariffs and a burgeoning role of ESG in investing and project finance

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21-Jun-21

Power: Proposed reforms positive but state-owned discoms hold the key

Planned policy initiatives favour renewables and discom privatisation but state government’s action will decide if structural change can occur

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14-Jun-21

Banking: Framework to harmonise microfinance regulations

RBI has released a consultative document on the regulation of microfinance that seeks feedback from stakeholders by Jul’21

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09-Jun-21

Power: Stay selective – sustained rally requires reforms

Sector rally in June driven by expected recovery in power demand as Covid-19 restrictions ease but this is not sufficient for the rally to sustain

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09-Jun-21

India Strategy: Climate Action – Clean your way up

Climate fears mounting due to global warming, shift in US stance and surge in ESG activism; coal, oil, auto, steel and cement to bear the brunt

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04-Jun-21

BOBCAPS Research | [#5 Meeting of Minds] Automobiles: Tractors continue to witness steady demand, outlook stable

We interacted with Rajat Gupta, founder member of Tractor Junction – a leading digital marketplace for all major tractor brands in India.

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01-Jun-21

Automobiles: Lockdowns and plant shutdowns dent May’21 dispatches

With most OEMs opting to partly shut down plants due to Covid-19, dispatches posted a steep sequential decline in May

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31-May-21

Banking: Lending rates increase marginally in April

As per RBI data on lending and deposit rates, the WALR on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by SCBs inched up to 8.1% in April while that on outstanding loans was stable at 9.2%.

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28-May-21

Power: Asian utilities say ESG critical and India a key market

We attended Sembcorp Industries' (SCI SP, Not Rated) Investor Day and spoke to the IR team of CLP Holdings (2 HK, Not Rated).

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27-May-21

Banking: Home loan asset quality deteriorates marginally

9MFY21 home loan trends released by credit bureau CRIF High Mark point to mild deterioration in 90+ DPD by value.

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27-May-21

IT Services: Q4FY21 Review - Indian IT performs in line with consensus

The Q4FY21 sequential growth and margin performance of India’s IT services sector has been in line with our as well as consensus’ optimistic estimates.

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24-May-21

[#4 Meeting of Minds] Automobiles: Transforming India into a global cell manufacturing hub

We hosted Kowtham Raj VS, an active member of government think tank NITI Aayog who plays a key advisory role in India’s battery/solar manufacturing and hydrogen schemes.

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24-May-21

Power: Regulators want lower ROE – NTPC, PWGR most at risk

As per the Economic Times, the Forum of Regulators – a body comprising CERC and state regulators – has released a report making recommendations to reduce electricity tariffs for end users.

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18-May-21

[Sector Report] Power: Cleaning up its act – BUY TPWR

India’s +5% p.a. power demand growth will be met by renewable capacity adds, which we expect will outpace coal by 2:1 in FY21-FY25, led by falling costs and rising green capital.

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11-May-21

Power: Yesterday’s rally likely an overreaction

Power stocks rallied yesterday, possibly on news of a 25% YoY uptick in electricity consumption in the first week of May.

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10-May-21

[#3 Meeting of Minds] Automobiles: Gearing up for EV battery technology

We hosted Stefan Louis, CEO of Nexcharge – a technology-based JV between Exide Industries and Leclanché of Switzerland – catering to lithium-ion tech in India.

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05-May-21

Banking: RBI extends relief measures to tackle second Covid wave

The RBI has opened a Rs 500bn on-tap liquidity window for banks at the repo rate till Mar'22, with a tenor of up to three years.

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03-May-21

Automobiles: Apr’21 Sales - Sequential decline across segments; outlook cautious

PV sales in April are estimated to have fallen ~11% MoM, albeit bettering our projections.

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30-Apr-21

[#2 Meeting of Minds] Aviation: Time for airline fleet consolidation; near-term pain to persist

We hosted Kiran Koteshwar, ex-CFO of SpiceJet, for a perspective on the Indian aviation industry.

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28-Apr-21

Metals & Mining: Expert call with China’s Valin Steel on ‘new normal’ for industry

We hosted a call with the management of Valin Steel (Valin), amongst the top 5 steel producers in China.

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26-Apr-21

Banking: RBI caps tenure of bank CEOs at 15 years

The RBI has issued final guidelines to strengthen corporate governance and encourage professionalisation of management teams in banks.

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23-Apr-21

[#1 Meeting of Minds] Automobiles: Rubber prices headed for a structural bull run

We hosted Robert Meyer, an expert on natural rubber (NR). According to Meyer, NR prices are headed for a structural rise amidst a global GDP recovery and short supply situation.

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22-Apr-21

[Sector Report] Logistics: Pandemic redefining industry landscape – BUY MLL, TCIEXP, VRLL

Our logistics coverage has rebounded from the black swan Covid event of H1FY21.

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16-Apr-21

Banking: Q4FY21 Preview - NPA recognition begins; provision buffers to cushion earnings

The SC has lifted its stay on tagging of NPAs but we expect slippages to be lower in Q4FY21 as banks have recognised a bulk of the Covid-related stress in their proforma numbers.

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13-Apr-21

Banking: Assam, W. Bengal MFI collections yet to pick up

Takeaways from our interactions with non-listed MFI players in the states of Assam and West Bengal for a ground-level perspective on the microfinance climate in these states.

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12-Apr-21

Power: Expert meeting takeaways – Spot market to take off

Key takeaways from our meeting with Arun Kumar, CEO of Kreate Energy, a top 3 player in the Indian power trading market.

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12-Apr-21

Building Materials: Q4FY21 Preview - Expect strong growth off a tepid base

We expect our building material coverage to report robust YoY growth in Q4FY21 aided by a lockdown-hit base quarter and demand revival.

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09-Apr-21

Automobiles: Q4FY21 Preview - Margins to remain under pressure

We expect a mixed revenue performance from our auto universe in Q4FY21.

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09-Apr-21

[Sector Report] Internet Technology: Zomato – Leading Indian foodtech play

Zomato’s latest pre-IPO funding round elevates its valuation to US$ 5.4bn vs. US$ 3.9bn in Dec’20, on the back of (1) recovery from the initial Covid-led volume slump, (2) improving unit economics, and (3) successful listing of US counterpart DoorDash.

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07-Apr-21

Banking: Rising demand for used CV financing

Key takeaways from our recent interaction with industry players for a perspective on economic activity revival and potential fallout from the renewed lockdown in Maharashtra.

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06-Apr-21

IT Services: Q4FY21 Preview – Ending the year on a robust note

We expect a resilient Q4FY21 marked by healthy QoQ dollar revenue growth (2.5-5.3%) for most of our IT coverage, aided by modest cross-currency tailwinds (~60bps).

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05-Apr-21

Automobiles: Mar’21 Sales – Healthy dispatches across segments

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in Mar’21 with healthy growth (~2.3x YoY), off a soft base due to the lockdown announced in Mar’20.

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01-Apr-21

Cement: Expert meeting takeaways – Demand outlook robust

Key takeaways from our meeting with Sanjay Ladiwala, a renowned cement industry expert associated with the business since 1973.

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24-Mar-21

Banking: SC verdict on moratorium dispels overhang for banks

We interacted with the senior management of various banks for a perspective on the Supreme Court's verdict vacating the interim relief on NPA recognition and its directive on the 'interest on interest' issue.

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19-Mar-21

IT Services: Accenture posts stellar Q2 performance, raises guidance

Accenture’s (ACN) Q2FY21 dollar revenue surpassed guidance by US$ 140mn, rising 8% YoY and 5.4% CC.

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12-Mar-21

IT Services: Reskilling to bridge workforce demand-supply gap

With the acceleration in digital demand post Covid-19, reskilling has gained prominence for IT players.

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10-Mar-21

Pharmaceuticals: Multiyear earnings upcycle in sight; prefer Cipla, Aurobindo, Laurus

Pharma valuations have course corrected in last 6M/3M with BSE healthcare index underperforming Nifty by 20%/11% due to sector rotation amid receding Covid headwinds and reemergence of FDA risk while earnings were resilient.

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04-Mar-21

Automobiles: Tyre input costs still on the boil – retain negative stance

Prices of natural rubber and crude derivatives have skyrocketed 25% and 55% respectively since Oct’20.

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01-Mar-21

Automobiles: Feb’21 Sales – Mixed bag

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in February with healthy YoY growth (+21%).

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15-Feb-21

IT Services: Q3FY21 Review – Indian IT shows sustained growth resurgence

Q3FY21 sequential revenue growth and margins for the IT services sector have been robust, surpassing our already-optimistic estimates.

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02-Feb-21

Automobiles: Jan’21 Sales – Exports driving 2W sales, CVs reviving, PVs steady

PV sales continued their upward trajectory in January with healthy YoY growth.

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18-Jan-21

Automobiles: Spiking RM costs to puncture earnings

Input costs make up 65-70% of revenues for most auto manufacturers.

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14-Jan-21

Automobiles: Q3FY21 Preview – Margins to reman stressed despite healthy volume uptick

Given higher quarterly dispatches, we expect Q3FY21 revenues to expand for our auto universe.

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13-Jan-21

Banking: Q3FY21 Preview – All eyes on asset quality

Q3FY21 is yet another quarter where management commentary will be watched even more keenly than reported earnings.

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13-Jan-21

Logistics: Q3FY21 Preview – Revenue and earnings growth set for recovery in Q3

Aggregate revenue of our logistics coverage universe is forecast to grow 11% YoY in Q3FY21 vs. a 1% uptick in Q2.

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13-Jan-21

Banking: Card spends back to pre-Covid levels; stress to gradually subside

Key takeaways from our interaction with an expert on the credit card industry.

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12-Jan-21

Pharmaceuticals: Q3FY21 Preview – Lupin, Sun, Dr Reddy’s to report strong Q3

We expect a strong Q3 for LPC (flu, India recovery), SUNP (specialty) and DRRD (US launches) with QoQ growth in EBITDA and margins, partly aided by cost savings.

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11-Jan-21

Building Materials: Q3FY21 Preview – Improving trends across the board

We expect most of our building material coverage to clock YoY growth aided by demand revival.

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08-Jan-21

Media & Entertainment: Strong content slate to boost multiplex occupancy in FY22

We hosted Amit Sharma, MD – Miraj Entertainment, on a call with select investors.

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04-Jan-21

Automobiles: Dec’20 Auto Sales – 2Ws struggling, CVs reviving, PVs steady

Passenger vehicles continued their upward trajectory in December with healthy YoY and MoM growth.

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04-Jan-21

IT Services: Q3FY21 Preview – Q3 to be resilient despite seasonality

We expect Q3FY21 to be resilient with a healthy QoQ dollar growth (2-4%) for most of our IT coverage, helped by modest cross-currency tailwinds (~35bps).

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28-Dec-20

Banking: Resolution of stress in the power sector still far away

Key takeaways from our interaction with a power sector expert.

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22-Dec-20

Pharmaceuticals: Takeaways from Pharma expert call

We hosted Dr. Deepak Hedge, Chief Technology Officer, EOC Pharma – Shanghai, as part of Pharma expert series (Virtual) last week.

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18-Dec-20

IT Services: Strong outsourcing growth continues; FY21 guidance raised

Accenture's (ACN) Q1 dollar revenues beat the guided range by US$ 200mn, up 4% YoY and 2% CC.

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17-Dec-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Recovery rolls ahead

Most high frequency indicators maintained their upward trajectory in November.

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01-Dec-20

Automobiles: Festive Auto Sales - 4Ws do well, 2Ws steady; tractors strong

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory in November with healthy YoY growth propelled by festive demand.

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01-Dec-20

Oil & Gas: Gas consumption surges

Natural gas consumption surged to 160.5mmscmd in October (+5% YoY, +12.6% MoM), boosted by the industrials segment.

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26-Nov-20

IT Services: Pickup in digital and blockchain-led deals

Most key deal wins and partnerships in Q3FY21 so far have been in the blockchain and digital transformation space.

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20-Nov-20

Market Strategy: Deep Value Picks: PSU – depressed valuations an opportunity or value trap?

PSU stocks have had a most forgettable year in 2020 with the Nifty PSE index declining ~30% since Jan’20.

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17-Nov-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Broad-based recovery continues

After a sturdy Sep’20, most high frequency indicators continued on the path of recovery in October as well.

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13-Nov-20

Oil & Gas: Petroleum demand soars for first time since lockdown

India's petroleum product consumption jumped 15% MoM (+2% YoY) to 17.8mmt in October as fuels across segments exhibited resurgent growth in tandem with the Indian economy's emergence from the world's strictest lockdown.

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13-Nov-20

IT Services: Q2FY21 Review – V-shaped recovery in Q2

Q2FY21 has been a much-awaited recovery quarter for Indian IT, exhibiting a V-shaped rebound marked by growth and margin outperformance across the sector.

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03-Nov-20

Oil & Gas: Gas consumption from power sector hits record high

Natural gas consumption declined to 142.6mmscmd (–8% YoY, –4% MoM) in September as lockdowns across states hampered demand.

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02-Nov-20

Automobiles: Oct’20 Auto Sales – Encouraging volumes; maintain cautious stance

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory in October with healthy YoY growth, ahead of our estimates.

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21-Oct-20

Oil & Gas: OMCs – Depressed valuations overlook earnings traction

The earnings outlook for oil marketing companies (OMC) remains buoyant as marketing margins are holding at elevated levels.

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13-Oct-20

Automobiles: Q2FY21 Preview – Inventory buildup ahead of festive season; reduce exposure

During Q2FY21, most OEMs have built up dealer inventory on hopes of a strong revival in the upcoming festive season.

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13-Oct-20

Building Materials: Q2FY21 Preview – Unlocking to revive operational performance

We expect building material companies under our coverage to witness significant operational improvement QoQ given the gradual easing of Covid restrictions.

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13-Oct-20

Pharmaceuticals: Q2FY21 Preview – Good Q2 for Cipla, Alembic, Alkem, Laurus

We expect positive Q2 surprises from Cipla (led by gProventil, Remdesivir), ALPM (US, EU), Laurus and Alkem (better seasonality).

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12-Oct-20

Logistics: Q2FY21 Preview – Early signs of earnings recovery

Aggregate revenue of our logistics coverage universe is expected to decline by 5% YoY in Q2FY21, a marked improvement from the 25% drop in Q1, aided by a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions.

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12-Oct-20

Oil & Gas: Q2FY21 Preview – Struggling to return to pre-Covid fundamentals

Q2FY21 has been another volatile quarter for the energy sector, with oil and spot LNG prices recovering from multiyear lows but spreads staying muted for cyclicals.

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12-Oct-20

Banking: Q2FY21 Preview – Seeking clarity on asset quality

Q2FY21 is yet another quarter where clarity on asset quality will be keenly awaited amid pandemic uncertainty.

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08-Oct-20

Oil & Gas: Domestic gas price regime – not much change

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved 'Natural Gas Marketing Reforms', with an objective to discover market price of gas from new producing fields through a transparent and competitive process.

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06-Oct-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Lead indicators bounce back strongly

Most high frequency indicators posted a strong YoY recovery in Sep’20.

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05-Oct-20

Oil & Gas: Macros for gas still below pre covid levels

Natural gas consumption in August declined to 148.8mmscmd (-7.8% YoY, 3.4% MoM), as ensuing lockdowns across states hampered demand.

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05-Oct-20

IT Services: Q2FY21 Preview – A positive growth quarter after Q1 slump

We expect Q2FY21 to be the growth recovery quarter with most companies in our coverage universe showing low-mid single digit QoQ growth, barring few exceptions.

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01-Oct-20

Market Strategy: Model Portfolio – Protracted bear market yet to run its course

The recent rally across mid- and small-caps is yet to bring about a reversal of the long-term bearish trends that began in Jan’18.

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01-Oct-20

Automobiles: Sep’20 Auto Sales – Upward trajectory continues

Auto sales continued their upward trajectory, improving MoM in September.

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30-Sep-20

Banking: Lending rates dip in August

As per latest RBI data, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by scheduled commercial banks (SCB) declined 18bps MoM to ~8.4% in August, driven by a ~30bps fall in rates at private banks.

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24-Sep-20

IT Services: Stellar outsourcing show- a positive readthrough for Indian IT

Accenture’s (ACN) Q4FY20 dollar revenue was in line with the guided range of US$ 10.6bn-11bn, posting a decline of 1.4% QoQ and 1% CC.

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24-Sep-20

[Ground Connect] Automobiles: Channel check takeaways – Dismal demand climate for MHCVs

We interacted with some multi-axle truck fleet owners.

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16-Sep-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Limping back to normalcy

Lead logistics indicators continued to improve in August, slowing their pace of decline vs. July – major port cargo fell 10% YoY (vs. –13% in July), container rail volumes dipped 8% (vs. –13%), and e-way bills contracted 3% (vs. –7%) – while IR’s freight volume grew 4% YoY (vs. –5%).

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04-Sep-20

Oil & Gas: Gas consumption declines in Jul’20

Natural gas consumption in July declined to 144mmscmd (–7% YoY, –16% MoM), as the reinstatement of Covid-19 lockdowns across states hampered demand.

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02-Sep-20

Diversified Financials: AMCs – Product focus and financial advisory taking root

We spoke with Mirae AMC CEO Swarup Mohanty recently.

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02-Sep-20

Automobiles: Aug’20 Auto Sales – Recovery led by pre-festive inventory filling

Auto sales clocked an expectedly healthy recovery across segments in Aug’20, barring MHCVs and 3Ws.

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01-Sep-20

[Sector Report] IT Services: Deep Dive 3 – Swift BFSI recovery ahead; raise TCS to BUY

While BFSI vertical revenues of Indian IT players contracted in Q1FY21, we expect a swift recovery to pre-Covid growth levels through FY21 on the back of (1) receding supply challenges and (2) steady technology budgets at large US banks.

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31-Aug-20

Media & Entertainment: Unlock 4.0 – Cinema shutdown extended to September

After nearly six months of shutdown, movie halls in India were denied permission to reopen in September under the new Unlock 4.0 guidelines issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on 29 August.

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19-Aug-20

Pharmaceuticals: Expensive e-pharmacy deals; Neutral impact for pharma majors

Media articles suggest growing consolidation in the e-pharmacy chain, i.e. Reliance-Netmeds and PharmEasy-Medlife.

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07-Aug-20

[Sector Report] Media & Entertainment: Opportunity in adversity – BUY INOL

India’s multiplex industry is undergoing unprecedented hardships amid Covid-19 shutdowns.

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06-Aug-20

NBFC: New RBI policies offer limited succour

RBI today introduced development policies along with the monetary policy, laying out new guidelines on the restructuring of personal loans – this has historically been a source of slippages and, together with extension of the MSME restructuring scheme, makes for a ticking time bomb in our view.

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06-Aug-20

Banking: RBI allows restructuring yet again

The central bank has provided a resolution framework that allows all banks, NBFCs and HFCs to cope with Covid-related stress, wherein all loans including personal (retail) loans can be restructured.

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06-Aug-20

Oil & Gas: Low spot prices make natural gas lucrative

Natural gas consumption in June increased to 171.2mmscmd (+6% YoY, +9% MoM).

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05-Aug-20

[Sector Report] Automotive Tyres: Safe hub in current storm – BUY APTY, TVSS, JKI

Despite recent setbacks, we expect the Indian tyre industry to grow at a 7% CAGR to ~Rs 720bn during FY20-FY23.

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03-Aug-20

Automobiles: Jul’20 Auto Sales – Low channel inventory aids wholesale volumes

Auto sales improved MoM in July but remained weaker than the year-ago period.

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29-Jul-20

Market Strategy: Model Portfolio – Midcaps: Hunting for value amidst uncertainty

The recent rally in broad market indices – reminiscent of a classic V-shaped recovery – has been restricted to select stocks.

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16-Jul-20

Diversified Financials: Q1FY21 Preview – Expect only gold finance NBFCs to shine

We expect MUTH and MGFL to register strong AUM growth of 19% and 30% YoY respectively in Q1FY21 as a secular credit crunch and run-up in gold prices act as tailwinds.

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15-Jul-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – On an arduous path to recovery

Key industry indicators fell at a slower pace in June vs. April/May, implying that the worst of the pandemic may be behind us.

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15-Jul-20

Oil & Gas: Q1FY21 Preview – Earnings volatility giving way to green shoots

Oil & Gas appears to be one of the few sectors to have seen faster normalisation in fundamentals by end-Q1FY21.

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14-Jul-20

Logistics: Q1FY21 Preview – Management commentary holds key in washout quarter

Q1FY21 will be a non-event as consensus estimates and stock prices already bake in an abysmal quarter.

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13-Jul-20

Banking: Q1FY21 Preview – Navigating uncertain waters

We believe the true picture of banks’ asset quality in Q1FY21 will be masked by the loan moratorium as this will rein in slippages.

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13-Jul-20

Building Materials: Q1FY21 Preview – Operating performance to crumble amid lockdown

We expect building material companies under our coverage to post an anaemic Q1FY21 as the Covid-19 lockdown has exacted a severe toll on business.

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09-Jul-20

Pharmaceuticals: Q1FY21 Preview – India sales firm despite Covid hit; good Q1 for Cipla, LPC, Laurus

We expect a good Q1 for Cipla (led by OTC switch, gProventil), Alkem (deferred India sales) and LPC (Levo ramp-up) – cost savings can further aid higher margins QoQ.

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09-Jul-20

Automobiles: Q1FY21 Preview – Negative dealer feedback and rich valuations; reduce exposure

During Q1FY21, PV sales nosedived ~80% YoY and 3W/2W volumes slumped ~70%.

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09-Jul-20

IT Services: ISG Q2CY20 Index – Trends and call highlights

The Q2CY20 ISG Index reflects stalled deal activity (ACV down 4.7% YoY) and a drop in managed services deal sourcing due to Covid-19.

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08-Jul-20

Banking: Lending rates remain stable in May

As per latest RBI data, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loans sanctioned by public sector banks (PSB) declined 26bps MoM to ~8.2% in May, whereas that for scheduled commercial banks (SCB) remained unchanged at 8.5% as private players managed to improve fresh lending rates by 30bps to 9.2%.

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06-Jul-20

IT Services: Q1FY21 Preview – Covid-19 to dent Q1; demand recovery cues key to watch

We expect a broad-based demand-led decline in revenue and margins for IT services players in Q1FY21 due to the Covid-19 impact.

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02-Jul-20

Oil & Gas: V-shaped recovery in LNG imports

Natural gas consumption in May increased to 157mmscmd (+7% YoY, +21% MoM).

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02-Jul-20

Automobiles: Jun’20 Auto Sales – Tractors continue to outshine other segments

Auto sales improved on a sequential basis in June but remained weak versus last year.

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24-Jun-20

IT Services: New H1B visa restrictions – anticipated election rhetoric

In a move seen as US election year rhetoric, new H1B visas have been suspended till Dec’20.

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20-Jun-20

Market Strategy: Model Portfolio – Realigning to volatility

As the market adjusts to shifting expectations in a Covid-19 world, we maintain our negative stance on leveraged companies.

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18-Jun-20

[Sector Report] IT Services: Deep Dive 2 – Telecom tech spends resilient; upgrade TECHM

Global 5G rollout is estimated to offer a mega US$ 10bn business opportunity for Indian IT players.

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15-Jun-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Another abysmal month but signs of recovery visible

After unprecedented declines in April, key trade indicators slumped yet again in May – major port traffic nosedived 23% YoY (–21% in Apr) and container rail volumes dropped 19% YoY (–14% in Apr).

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12-Jun-20

Agriculture: India’s sugar demand improves post lockdown

We recently hosted a call with Abhinash Verma, Director General of Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

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12-Jun-20

Oil & Gas: Petroleum consumption surges 47% in May

India’s petroleum product consumption surged 47% MoM (–21% YoY) to 14.6mmt in May’20 as fuels across segments exhibited resurgent growth in tandem with the Indian economy’s emergence from the world’s strictest lockdown.

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10-Jun-20

[Sector Report] Vehicle Finance NBFCs: Recovery in H2FY22E – BUY CIFC, ADD MMFS

Automotive production and sales are expected to plummet to multi-year lows in FY21 as pressures arising from the Covid-19 crisis engulf both demand and supply channels.

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09-Jun-20

BOBCAPS Research | Banking: Sharp reduction in term deposit rates in April

As per latest RBI data, banks' fresh lending rates declined 52bps MoM to 8.3% in Apr'20, registering the steepest ever fall since Oct'14.

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05-Jun-20

Banking: Apex court raises troubling spectre of interest waiver

The SC in a recent hearing expressed concerns over banks charging interest on loans under moratorium but has sought the government's reply on the matter.

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02-Jun-20

Automobiles: May’20 Auto Sales – Tractors robust, other segments weak

Auto sales in May remained muted owing to lockdown restrictions across major parts of the country.

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01-Jun-20

Banking: Credit Tracker – Lockdown mars retail credit growth

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that growth in non-food credit remained sluggish at 7.3% in Apr’20.

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22-May-20

Banking: Relief measures by RBI extended further

RBI today announced further measures aimed at easing financial stress

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19-May-20

IT Services: Takeaways from Gartner IT spending quarterly outlook

As the coronavirus continues to spread, Gartner now expects worldwide IT spends to decline 8% in CY20 vs. growth of 5% forecast earlier.

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18-May-20

Market Strategy: Covid-19 Stimulus – Lean fiscal stimulus offers little respite

The Centre’s Rs 20tn stimulus package provides impetus to structural reform initiatives that will bear fruit over the long term, but offer little immediate respite.

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18-May-20

IT Services: Vertical deep dive: Retail vertical to bear the brunt – SELL Wipro

While concerns about the travel & transport vertical (<5% revenue share for tier-I India IT) are at the forefront, we believe retail – the second largest vertical with 14% share – will be the worst hit for India IT services.

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15-May-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Unprecedented slowdown in extraordinary times

Trade barometers registered unprecedented declines in Apr’20 as manufacturing activity came to a standstill amid the national lockdown.

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13-May-20

Market Strategy: Covid-19 Stimulus – First instalment of mega stimulus: spotlight on MSMEs

As part of its Rs 20tn stimulus package, the Centre today unveiled ~Rs 6tn in liquidity-related support, primarily targeting MSMEs and NBFCs.

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12-May-20

Banking: Lending yields plummet in March

As per latest RBI data, fresh lending yields continued to decline, with a 40bps MoM drop in Mar'20 to 8.8%.

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11-May-20

Oil & Gas: Petroleum consumption plunges in April

India’s petroleum product consumption plunged 46% YoY (–38% MoM) to 10mmt in Apr’20, as all fuels except LPG saw severe demand erosion.

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06-May-20

Oil & Gas: Mar’20 natural gas consumption slips

Natural gas consumption in Q4FY20 increased a mere 2.6% YoY to 150mmscmd as offtake inched up across sectors and power demand dropped – CGD (28.6mmscmd, +10% YoY), other industrials (50.6mmscmd, +8.2% YoY) and fertiliser (45.4mmscmd, +4% YoY).

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06-May-20

Market Strategy: Macro View – Excise duties on fuel hiked to meet fiscal challenges

The Centre has hiked excise duties on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 and Rs 13 per litre respectively as it strives to balance the fiscal math, translating to an estimated windfall of ~Rs 2tn for the exchequer.

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30-Apr-20

Building Materials: Gulf anti-dumping levy to hit ceramic tile producers

The GCC today imposed anti-dumping duty on ceramic tile imports from India and China from 6 June 2020 for five years.

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22-Apr-20

Automobiles: Q4FY20 Preview – Covid-19 stalls recovery hopes

Weak dispatches in Q4FY20 due to BS-IV inventory liquidation and the March lockdown saw aggregate FY20 volumes declining at record rates.

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20-Apr-20

Logistics: Q4FY20 Preview – Expect an anaemic quarter

Already reeling under a domestic consumption slowdown, the Indian logistics industry has now taken a severe blow from Covid-19-led trade disruptions.

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17-Apr-20

NBFC: RBI’s Covid-19 measures positive but half-hearted

RBI has announced key relief measures for NBFCs today, viz. targeted long-term repo operations (TLTRO) 2.0, special refinance facilities for All India Financial Institutions (AIFIs), and a one-year extension for real estate loans.

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17-Apr-20

Banking: RBI announces fresh measures to cushion lockdown impact

The RBI today announced the following additional liquidity measures to address near-term concerns amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

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16-Apr-20

Oil & Gas: Q4FY20 Preview – Pressure on cyclical earnings

The oil price crash has been a main feature of Q4FY20.

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15-Apr-20

Automobiles: Yongda call takeaways – China luxury car demand on the rebound

We hosted a call with China Yongda Automobile Services (Yongda), one of the leading luxury car dealers in China with over 200 outlets catering to marquee brands such as BMW, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Audi and JLR.

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15-Apr-20

Building Materials: Q4FY20 Preview – Expect an insipid quarter

Building material companies under our coverage are likely to post a dull Q4FY20 as tough market conditions have been further accentuated by the lockdown in end-March, thus taking a toll on volumes.

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15-Apr-20

Banking: Q4FY20 Preview – Limited lockdown impact in Q4

We expect a modest fourth quarter for our banking coverage followed by a sharp credit slowdown in Q1FY21 as the lockdown impact unravels.

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13-Apr-20

Diversified Financials: Q4FY20 Preview – Robust quarter with limited lockdown impact

We expect BAF, MUTH and MGFL to register strong AUM growth in Q4FY20 even as efficient opex and risk management keep profits buoyant.

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13-Apr-20

Building Materials: Lockdown to mar near-term prospects; structural drivers intact

We expect the ongoing lockdown to severely hamper demand for building materials in H1FY21 with some revival only from H2.

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09-Apr-20

IT Services: ISG Index – Covid-19 to forestall deal activity in Q2CY20

As per ISG, Q1CY20 managed services deals – a more relevant indicator for Indian IT services players – were on track for 9-10% YoY growth pre-Covid-19.

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08-Apr-20

Pharmaceuticals: Q4FY20 Preview – Good Q4 for DRRD, LPC, DIVI, Laurus; FY21 guidance key to watch

We expect DRRD, LPC (Levo ramp-up + Losartan/HCTZ), and DIVI (leverage post FDA audit) to report a good quarter, with higher margins QoQ for LPC/DIVI (decline for DRRD on R&D cost increase).

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02-Apr-20

Automobiles: Mar’20 Auto Sales – BS-VI shift + Covid-19 drive sharp slump

Mar’20 volume growth was weak for all automotive segments as the Covid-19 outbreak followed by plant shutdowns hit production and sales.

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02-Apr-20

Oil & Gas: Feb’20 natural gas consumption surges

Natural gas consumption in Feb'20 increased 10% YoY to 160mmscmd as offtake climbed across sectors (except power) – fertiliser (47mmscmd, +9% YoY), CGD (30.4mmscmd, +17% YoY), and other industrials (52.9mmscmd, +13.7% YoY).

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31-Mar-20

[Ground Connect] Logistics: Channel check takeaways – lockdown wreaking havoc

We recently interacted with a number of logistics companies – listed and unlisted – as well as industry experts.

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31-Mar-20

[Sector Report] Banking: Large private banks offer safe havens – BUY ICICIBC, AXSB, HDFCB

India’s banking sector is battling lashing headwinds ranging from anaemic credit demand to elevated bad debt and Covid-19 fears.

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24-Mar-20

Errata: India Strategy | Covid-19 Pandemic: Market bottom elusive – stick to select cash-rich stocks

Central banks globally are bracing for a worldwide economic shutdown which heightens the risk of a protracted downside in global markets.

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13-Mar-20

[Sector Report] Diversified Financials (AMCs): Low-levered, high-ROE and dividend-payout plays – BUY HDFC AMC; SELL NAM

Asset management companies (AMC) are a play on the growing financialisation of savings in India.

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11-Mar-20

India Market Strategy: Unlevered stocks best picks in tremulous market

Recent market correction, driven by global turmoil, has put Nifty valuations (at 15.5x one-year forward) at an attractive level.

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07-Mar-20

Banking: Yes Bank rescue plan – stake purchase the lesser evil for SBIN

The RBI and government of India have superseded Yes Bank's (YES) board and placed the bank under moratorium from 5 Mar 2020.

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02-Mar-20

Automobiles: Feb’20 Auto Sales – Weak for most segments; PVs, tractors ahead

Feb’20 volume growth remained negative for most key segments, barring tractors.

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17-Feb-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Rail container volumes steady, major port cargo sluggish

Trade indicators exhibited mixed trends in Jan’20.

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03-Feb-20

Automobiles: Jan’20 Auto Sales – PVs ahead of 2W and CVs

Jan’20 volume trends were mixed across segments and players based on stock levels and differing timelines for BS-VI production ramp-up.

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01-Feb-20

Infrastructure: FY21 Budget – Reduced funding for infrastructure

Overall fund allocation for key infrastructure sectors has declined 4% YoY in Union Budget FY21 to Rs 5.5tn, with gross budgetary support at Rs 2.7tn (+10% YoY) – the latter includes Rs 1.6tn (+7% YoY) towards roads and railways.

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30-Jan-20

IT Services: Coronavirus crisis hits global travel industry – likely risk for NITEC

The coronavirus outbreak in China is expected to exact a heavy toll on the global travel, transport and hospitality (TTH) industry.

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20-Jan-20

[Sector Report] Automobiles: Mixed signals – prefer PVs, two-wheelers (BUY Maruti, Eicher)

The auto industry slump over the past five quarters has seen the Nifty Auto Index plunging ~40% over the 12 months to Sep’19.

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16-Jan-20

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Mixed trends

Trade indicators exhibited mixed trends in Dec’19.

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10-Jan-20

Logistics: Q3FY20 Preview – Insipid quarter beckons

Logistics companies in our coverage are expected to report a tepid Q3 as domestic and EXIM trade headwinds continue unabated.

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10-Jan-20

Infrastructure: Q3FY20 Preview – Execution a mix bag

Moderate execution due to prolonged monsoon and lack of order wards in the past year is expected to contain revenue growth at ~9% YoY for our infrastructure universe in Q3FY20.

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09-Jan-20

Banking: Q3FY20 Preview – Recoveries to aid earnings

Q3FY20 is likely to be a soft quarter in terms of business momentum as systemic loan growth has remained lackluster.

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09-Jan-20

Building Material: Q3FY20 Preview – Tepid quarter

Building material companies under our coverage are expected to post a tepid Q3FY20 as market conditions remained challenging, thus taking a toll on volumes.

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09-Jan-20

Oil & Gas: Q3FY20 Preview – Pressure on cyclical earnings

Cyclical business fundamentals aggravated in Q3FY20 – Singapore GRMs crashed to US$ 1.63/bbl (-75% QoQ), and petrochemical cracks declined ~20% QoQ.

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07-Jan-20

Pharmaceuticals: Q3FY20 Preview – Q3 strong for DRRD, LPC, SUN, Alkem & Laurus

DRRD, LPC, Sun & Alkem to report strong quarters both for US and India.

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03-Jan-20

Infrastructure: Ambitious Rs 102tn infra push – funding holds the key

The finance ministry’s Rs 102tn National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) for India over FY20-FY25 comes as a major boost for the sector.

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16-Dec-19

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Container rail volumes tick up in incrementally better month

High frequency indicators for the logistics industry remained subdued in Nov’19, but have improved incrementally vis-à-vis the past few months.

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04-Dec-19

IT Services: US elections – a potential cyclical risk for Indian IT

Our analysis of growth trends over the last 12 years indicates a risk of protracted near-term softness for India’s IT services industry in the runup to US presidential elections in Nov’20.

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29-Nov-19

Oil & Gas: Expert meeting takeaways

We hosted Kaushik Deb – Research Fellow at KAPSARC (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center), Riyadh, for investor meetings in Mumbai.

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21-Nov-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – Loan growth plummets to 8%

Credit growth for the fortnight ended 8 November slipped to a two-year low of 8.1% YoY, as per RBI data.

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18-Nov-19

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Slump in port volumes and container rail lead distance

High frequency indicators, a harbinger of the logistics industry’s performance, worsened further in Oct’19, indicating a deepening slowdown.

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11-Nov-19

Oil & Gas: OMCs Q2 FY20– tepid GRMs, marketing earnings sustain

All the three OMCs – IOCL, BPCL and HPCL – reported Q2 FY20 earnings well below estimates, impacted by low GRMs (US$3.8-US$3/bbl), under- performing the benchmark Singapore (US$6.5/bbl).

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07-Nov-19

IT Services: Infosys and HCL Tech: Analyst meet takeaways

At analyst meetings hosted separately by INFO and HCLT, we noted evolving digital capabilities and growing digital contract sizes at both players.

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24-Oct-19

Oil & Gas: Govt. opens up fuel retailing to non-oil companies

The government has eased fuel retailing norms, allowing non-oil companies to set up petrol pumps in India to increase investment and competition in the sector.

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18-Oct-19

Agriculture: Maharashtra’s sugar production to nearly halve in 2019-20

We met senior officials of the Maharashtra State Co-Operative Sugar Factories Federation (MSCSFF) which has 190 co-operative sugar mills operating in the state as members.

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15-Oct-19

Logistics: Monthly Tracker - Demand climate deteriorates further

High frequency indicators, a harbinger of the logistics industry’s performance, worsened in Sep’19, marking the end of a sedate Q2FY20.

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12-Oct-19

Oil & Gas: Q2FY20 Preview - GRMs rise but economic slowdown weighs on cyclicals

Cyclical business fundamentals showed mixed trends in Q2FY20 – Singapore GRMs surged to US$ 6.5/bbl (+88% QoQ), while petrochemical cracks declined ~10% QoQ.

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12-Oct-19

Banking: Credit Tracker - Loan growth drops below 9%

RBI data shows that credit growth for the fortnight ended 27 September slipped to a three-year low of 8.8% YoY.

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11-Oct-19

Infrastructure: Q2FY20 Preview - Execution slackens; order flow a key monitorable

Poor project execution due to the extended monsoons is expected to contain revenue growth at ~15% YoY for our infrastructure universe in Q2FY20.

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11-Oct-19

Logistics: Q2FY20 Preview - Expect a weak quarter all around

High frequency indicators (EXIM trade, rail freight and major port traffic), corroborated by industry checks, signal a feeble demand environment for logistics services.

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11-Oct-19

Building Materials: Q2FY20 Preview - Modest quarter

Building material companies under our coverage are expected to post a modest Q2FY20 as tough market conditions exact a toll on volumes.

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11-Oct-19

Pharma: Q2FY20 Preview - India seasonality, stable US good for Alkem, DRRD; Cipla weak

We expect Alkem and DRRD to report a good quarter with largely stable US sales QoQ.

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10-Oct-19

IT Services: ISG Index call takeaways: Mixed signals for Q3CY19

ISG's Q3 Index reflects an uptick in deal activity and a return to double-digit growth.

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04-Oct-19

IT Services: Q2FY20 Preview – Q2 to set tone for second-half and beyond

Despite global trade, revenue growth for tier-I Indian IT services players has held steady for the last three quarters.

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03-Oct-19

Infrastructure: NHAI analyst meet update – upbeat on BMP awards

We attended an analyst meet hosted by NHAI on Bharatmala Pariyojana phase-I (BMP).

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03-Oct-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – August non-food credit growth plummets to <10%

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that growth in non-food credit slowed to a 17-month low of 9.8% in Aug’19, hobbled by lower growth across segments.

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03-Oct-19

Gold Finance NBFCs: Turning a corner

Gold loans being self-liquidating and well-collateralised, India’s top-2 gold finance NBFCs, MUTH and MGFL, have found favour with debt/liquid funds post the IL&FS crisis.

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02-Oct-19

Oil & Gas: GRM surge on IMO may sustain for long

The global transition to electric vehicles is a potent threat to oil demand growth over the long term, estimated to shrink oil consumption from road transportation at a ~0.5% CAGR over 2018-40.

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27-Sep-19

IT Services: Positive readthrough from Accenture results

Accenture posted record bookings worth US$ 12.9bn in Q4FY19, including 16 US$ 100mn+ TCV deals, besides guiding for 5-8% YoY CC revenue growth for FY20.

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27-Sep-19

Infrastructure: NHAI call takeaways – Order awards to gather pace from Q3

We spoke with V K Sharma – CGM (Land Acquisition) and Siba Narayan Nayak, CGM (Finance) of NHAI, for an update on land acquisition and order award targets for FY20.

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26-Sep-19

Banking: Tax cut to bolster earnings

The corporate tax cut provides much needed cheer for banks under our coverage – we raise FY21-FY22 earnings by 2-14% and ROE estimates by 30-220bps, but believe the near-term impact is already in the price.

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26-Sep-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – Business momentum remains sluggish

RBI data shows that credit and deposit growth for the fortnight ended 13 September were both weak at 10% YoY.

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26-Sep-19

Midcaps: Tax cut benefits capped by demand headwinds

We upgrade FY20 earnings by 2-11% for midcap companies under our coverage post the recent corporate tax cut.

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25-Sep-19

Logistics: Tax cut may have limited benefits; demand challenges persist

Our industry interactions suggest that while the recent corporate tax sop will aid earnings of select logistics companies within our coverage, the benefits may not be proportional to the cut as large corporate clients likely negotiate for better pricing.

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25-Sep-19

Oil & Gas: Gains from tax cuts – PSUs, gas utilities top bets

The tax rate cut announced by the government will be earnings accretive by 6-15% for energy companies in our coverage universe.

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25-Sep-19

Infrastructure: Corporate tax cut an earnings booster; HG Infra to gain the most

The corporate tax reduction announced last week will bump up standalone EPS by 2-13% for our infrastructure universe over FY20-FY22, with HGIEL benefiting the most.

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24-Sep-19

Pharmaceuticals: Corporate tax cut – bonanza for healthcare services

The corporate tax cut from 30% to 22% (including surcharge from 34.9% to 25.2%) effective FY20 could spur an 8-15% earnings upgrade for pharma MNCs (Not Rated) and Diagnostic players/hospitals (Not Rated), as well as a marginal 3-4% benefit for Divi’s Labs among our Indian pharma coverage.

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18-Sep-19

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Slowdown continues to take a toll

High frequency indicators for logistics remained dull in Aug’19. Cargo volume growth at major ports softened to 1.2% YoY as a weak EXIM trajectory (–10.6% YoY) took a toll.

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16-Sep-19

BFSI & Midcaps: BOBCAPS BFSI & Midcaps Conference – Key takeaways

We hosted 23 corporates from the BFSI and midcap sectors for meetings with 50+ institutional clients at our conference in Mumbai on 13 September.

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03-Sep-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – July non-food credit growth feeble at 11%

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment indicates that non-food credit growth remained subdued at 11.4% YoY in Jul’19.

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03-Sep-19

Oil & Gas: Jul’19 natural gas consumption robust

Natural gas consumption in Jul'19 increased 4.8% YoY to 155.1mmscmd, as offtake increased across sectors (with the exception of power).

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30-Aug-19

Banking: Blockbuster merger – 10 PSBs fused into 4

In a mega move towards consolidation, the Finance Minister has announced the merger of 10 PSBs into 4 new entities, albeit with no definite timelines or swap ratios.

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28-Aug-19

Plastic Products: Anti-dumping duty on CPVC – Astral Poly a key beneficiary

India's finance ministry has imposed provisional anti-dumping duty (ADD) on CPVC resin/compounds imported from China and Korea for a period of six months starting 26 August.

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20-Aug-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – Credit growth remains lacklustre

RBI data shows subdued 12% YoY credit growth for the fortnight ended 02 August and stable 10% deposit growth.

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16-Aug-19

Logistics: Monthly Tracker – Major ports, container rail volumes improve; EXIM sluggish

High frequency indicators exhibited a mixed trend in Jul’19.

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02-Aug-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – June non-food credit growth sluggish at 11%

RBI data on sectoral credit deployment for Jun’19 indicates that non-food lending increased at a subdued 11.1% YoY for the month.

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18-Jul-19

Banking: Credit Tracker – Credit growth remains sluggish

RBI data shows that credit growth for the fortnight ended 05 July...

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