26-Oct-2020Research Reports

MPHL: DXC remains soft but pipeline healthy – raise to REDUCE. October MPC Minutes: Emphasis on forward guidance. TECHM: Communication vertical recovers; TCV robust. JKI: Strong Q2FY21; focus on debt reduction continues

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ALPM: Good beat (ex-US) fuels earnings upgrade. COFORGE: Executable order book hits record high. BJAUT: Hazy near-term 2W outlook, 3Ws continue to lag

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LTI: Robust growth and pipeline; margin shines. Oil & Gas: OMCs - Depressed valuations overlook earnings traction

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Good performance but in the price – downgrade to REDUCE

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India decides to borrow more

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HDFCB: Resilient quarter; confident commentary. HCLT: Guidance raised on robust, broad-based performance. FB: Strong operating performance

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Robust margin visibility

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Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI higher. INFO: Stellar recovery based on strong TCV

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WPRO: Upbeat Q2 but mid-term growth outlook weak. Automobiles: Q2FY21 Preview – Inventory buildup ahead of festive season; reduce exposure. Pharmaceuticals: Q2FY21 Preview – Good Q2 for Cipla, Alembic, Alkem, Laurus

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Weekly Wrap: RBI’s moves drive Indian yields lower. Inflation and IIP: Inflation remains uncomfortably high, IIP improves. Banking: Q2FY21 Preview – Seeking clarity on asset quality. Logistics: Q2FY21 Preview – Early signs of earnings recovery

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Monthly Chartbook: Green shoots emerging. Monetary Policy Review: Lender of last resort

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Domestic gas price regime - not much change

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Demand recovery drives outperformance

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Lead indicators bounce back strongly

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Weekly Wrap: Uphill climb for global recovery. IT Services: Q2FY21 Preview – A positive growth quarter after Q1 slump. Oil & Gas: Macros for gas still below pre covid levels

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Trade: Exports gain traction. Market Strategy: Model Portfolio – Protracted bear market yet to run its course. Automobiles: Sep’20 Auto Sales – Upward trajectory continues

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Balance of Payments: Current account surplus expands. Interest Rate Outlook: Centre sticks to its borrowing calendar. Banking: Lending rates dip in August

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RBI to maintain status quo

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Healthy prospects but valuations full – initiate with SELL

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Automobiles: Channel check takeaways – Dismal demand climate for MHCVs. CRS: Demand trends improving. IT Services: Stellar outsourcing show- a positive readthrough for Indian IT

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Weekly Wrap: Central Banks on hold, India expands fisc support. AJP: NDR takeaways – Earnings drivers tracking well. HCLT: Acquisition spree on; DWS to expand footprint in Australia

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Multiple one-offs, Gati consolidation boosts performance

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DRRD: US Revlimid settlement – low competition can boost NPV. MTLM: Demand conditions improving gradually

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SHTF: Limited pandemic headwinds – initiate with BUY. Logistics: Limping back to normalcy

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SJET: Deep value BUY despite steep discount to market leader. PVRL: Cost control only positive in washout quarter; cut to REDUCE. Trade: Trade deficit expands on higher gold imports

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Weekly Wrap: Indian yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns. Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation turns positive. Inflation: Food inflation moderates, core persists. HCLT: Favourable quarter ahead; earnings upgraded

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IIP improves further

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CCRI: Annual report analysis – FY20 a mixed bag. BESTAGRO: Up-and-coming agrochem player

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Monthly Chartbook: India’s recovery gathers steam. INFOE: Lower billings a cause for concern. VMART: Revival hopes pinned on Q3 festive season

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INDIGO: Market leader advantage - initiate with BUY. Weekly Wrap: Indian yields fall after RBI acts. GREENP: MDF segment in strong recovery mode

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Natural gas consumption in July declined to 144mmscmd (–7% YoY, –16% MoM), as the reinstatement of Covid-19 lockdowns across states hampered demand.

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ONGC: Pricing in the worst – upgrade to BUY. FNXP: Demand situation steadily improving. Diversified Financials: AMCs – Product focus and financial advisory taking root. Automobiles: Aug’20 Auto Sales – Recovery led by pre-festive inventory filling

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Deep Dive 3: Swift BFSI recovery ahead – raise TCS to BUY

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Weekly Wrap: India’s GDP and fiscal health in focus. Q1FY21 GDP: Investment and consumption drive record fall in GDP. Media & Entertainment: Unlock 4.0 – Cinema shutdown extended to September

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RIL: Expanding footprint in retail. DCBB: Clarity on asset quality by Q3FY21

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Volumes slump; raise to REDUCE post correction

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RBI expects gradual recovery

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Global yields dip, Indian yields rise

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Muted volumes

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Rate cut cycle may be behind us

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MUTH: Opex levers played out, valuations hit peak - cut to ADD. Pharma: Expensive e-pharmacy deals; Neutral impact for pharma majors

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Margins improve, volume outlook brightens

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Weekly Wrap: Global yields rise as recovery continues. VRLL: Insipid Q1 but steady recovery bodes well. MTLM: Q1 revenues slump; outlook improving

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MUNI: Tepid quarter, upside limited; downgrade to ADD. Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, food inflation soars. Trade: Imports catching up, non-oil exports improve. BPCL: GRMs outperform but marketing to aid earnings growth. HMCL: Optimism priced in – maintain REDUCE

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EIM: Downtrading could dent volumes – cut to SELL. Inflation: Accelerating inflation, RBI to maintain status quo. ARBP: In-line Q1; earnings, balance sheet comfort merit higher multiple. GAIL: Marketing losses sink earnings

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SOMC: Recovery expected in Q2; upgrade to BUY on cheap valuations. ECLX: Aggressive cost management saves the day

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VSTT: Power tillers to steer growth – initiate with BUY. Monthly Chartbook: India to recover with a lag. IIP: IIP showing signs of recovery. VMART: Lockdown blues; near-term outlook remains murky

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CCRI: Increased land licence fee a massive blow; downgrade to SELL. FNXP: Tough quarter but outlook healthy; raise to BUY on low valuations. Weekly Wrap: Global recovery continues. MAHGL: Muted volume outlook. PSYS: CEO resigns after short stint; reiterate SELL

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Media & Entertainment: Opportunity in adversity. DIVI: Q1 beat due to lumpiness – retain REDUCE on full valuations. CIPLA: Strong Q1 beat; stock catalysts intact – BUY. LPC: Weak quarter; multiple near-term catalysts. ALKEM: Gross margin beat sustainable; stronger FCF to support rerating

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PI: Q1 beat; Growing CSM mix can drive rerating – raise to BUY. Monetary Policy Review: RBI allows restructuring while holding rates. GUJS: Swiftly returning to normal. CRS: Weak Q1 due to lockdown, but ahead of estimates. Banking: RBI allows restructuring yet again

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Automotive Tyres: Safe hub in current storm. ASTRA: Lockdown-hit quarter

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GUJGA: Muted Q1 but volumes have normalised; cut to ADD on low upside. IOCL: Improved outlook on marketing margins. HDFCB: Elevation of Sashi Jagdishan as MD & CEO a big positive

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Weekly Wrap: RBI decision to guide markets. Automobiles: Jul’20 Auto Sales – Low channel inventory aids wholesale volumes

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ESC: Growth levers priced in; initiate with SELL. LAURUS: All-round beat; multiple positives spur big upgrade - TP Rs 1,200. SUNP: Mixed Q1; margin beat unlikely to sustain – REDUCE. CIFC: Business activity picking up in pockets. UPLL: Mixed results; FY21 growth guidance healthy

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RIL: Cyclicals and retail sink; RJio saves the day - downgrade to SELL. AJP: Solid beat on margins - set to normalise in coming quarters

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Market Strategy: Model Portfolio - Midcaps: Hunting for value amidst uncertainty. MSIL: Weak Q1; upsides limited - downgrade to ADD. IDFCFB: High moratorium in corporate portfolio a risk – cut to SELL. MGFL: MFI and vehicle finance to see incremental stress – cut to ADD

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RBK: Potential stress to keep ROE subdued – cut to SELL. NITEC: Strong guidance despite weak quarterly performance. HEXW: Results outperform of estimates. IIB: Profit beats estimates; moratorium share drops

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SI: Demand uncertainty persists; downgrade to REDUCE. PSYS: Good quarter but valuations rich; downgrade to SELL. Weekly Wrap: All eyes on Fed. TECHM: Performance surpasses expectations. KMB: Moratorium share dips; asset quality slips on prudent measures

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MPHL: Strong deal wins; DXC remains soft. ICICIBC: Prudent provisions reassuring

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Equity flows remain subdued

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MDA: Key beneficiary of BSVI implementation – initiate with BUY. BJAUT: Margin disappoints; 3Ws worst hit after CVs – cut to SELL. ALPM: Strong beat (ex-India) drives earnings upgrade

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VMART: Tough times ahead – downgrade to SELL. BAF: Opex control a positive surprise, liquidity buffers strong. AXSB: Balance sheet continues to strengthen

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MMFS: Buoyant rural activity, fund raising brighten outlook – raise to BUY. Weekly Wrap: RBI to focus on growth as inflation surprises negatively

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HDFCB: Strong enough to weather the storm. HCLT: Upbeat margin outlook

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LTI: Resilient show in a challenging quarter. Diversified Financials: Q1FY21 Preview – Expect only gold finance NBFCs to shine

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Trade: Exports recover, imports falter. INFO: Guidance reinstated backed by strong deal pipeline. FB: Stable operating performance. RIL: AGM highlights – Expanding lateral offerings. MTLM: Management meet takeaways – Demand yet to pick up

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Wholesale Inflation: WPI contracts, but at a slower pace. WPRO: Strong operational performance despite all odds. MTCL: Cloudy revenue visibility. Logistics: Q1FY21 Preview – Management commentary holds key in washout quarter

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Weekly Wrap: Global macros improving despite rising cases. Inflation: CPI surprises negatively led by core. Banking: Q1FY21 Preview – Navigating uncertain waters. Building Materials: Q1FY21 Preview – Operating performance to crumble amid lockdown

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RIL: Earnings yet to justify rerating – cut to REDUCE. IIP: First signs of recovery

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Automobiles: Q1FY21 Preview – Negative dealer feedback and rich valuations; reduce exposure. TCS: Dull quarter with few bright spots. Pharmaceuticals: Q1FY21 Preview – India sales firm despite Covid hit; good Q1 for Cipla, LPC, Laurus

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FNXP: Demand traction for agri pipes improved in May-June. Banking: Lending rates remain stable in May

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Monthly Chartbook: Consumption reviving, capex to recover in FY22. Weekly Wrap: Economic recovery continues despite COVID. AGLL: Robust MTO show offset by insipid CFS & P&E segments. ECLX: Announces Rs 1.09bn buyback – a transient trigger

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AXSB: Capital raising to fortify balance sheet. Automobiles: Jun’20 Auto Sales – Tractors continue to outshine other segments. Oil & Gas: V-shaped recovery in LNG imports

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ONGC: Concerns abound – cut to ADD. CRS: Lockdown blues – downgrade to ADD

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BoP: Current account turns surplus. PLNG: Margins outperform ex. one-offs. MUNI: Margin expansion aided by exports

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OINL: Gloomy outlook – cut to REDUCE. Weekly Wrap: COVID spike worries markets. Greenply Ind: Lockdown saps Q4 performance. CPBI: Core business declines but MDF, laminates prop up margins

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Interest Rate Outlook: RBI and Banks to finance fiscal deficit. CCRI: Decent quarter but headwinds ahead – downgrade to REDUCE. AL: Weak macros, rich valuations – downgrade to SELL. KJC: Lockdown hits hard – downgrade to ADD

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IOCL: Upbeat operating performance. GAIL: Trading margins surprise. CBK: Core operating performance remains weak

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FNXP: Lockdown dents performance – cut to ADD. IT Services: New H1B visa restrictions – anticipated election rhetoric

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Bleak outlook for core businesses

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Weekly Wrap: Equity markets and oil prices resist rising COVID cases. VRLL: Insipid quarter

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Market Strategy: Model Portfolio – Realigning to volatility. GREENP: Strong operational performance marred by MTM losses

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IT Services: Deep Dive 2: Telecom tech spends resilient – upgrade TECHM. PIDI: Lockdown weighs on growth

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IGL: Volume concerns worsen – downgrade to SELL. MUTH: All that glitters is gold. HPCL: Marketing advantage in challenging times

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Weekly Wrap: Risk-off drives markets lower. Wholesale Inflation: Lower fuel prices drives sharp reduction in WPI inflation. Trade: Exports recover faster than imports. SUNP: Ilumya out-licensed to Hikma for MENA region

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EIM: Downtrading fears could dent volumes – cut to ADD. Inflation and IIP: Food inflation falls, industrial output contracts sharply. Oil & Gas: Petroleum consumption surges 47% in May. Agriculture: India’s sugar demand improves post lockdown

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MAHGL: Margins expand but volume outlook weak – cut to SELL. DCBB: Potential capital raise entails high dilution – cut to SELL

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Vehicle Finance NBFCs: Recovery in H2FY22E. HMCL: Optimism priced in – downgrade to REDUCE

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ECLX: Valuation inexpensive but lacks catalysts. Banking: Sharp reduction in term deposit rates in April

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PI: Stable outlook; stretched valuation limits stock upside. Monthly Chartbook: Recovery has begun, normalcy will take time. Weekly Wrap: Equity markets gain as global economies recover. GUJS: Volumes buoyant

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SBIN: Core operating profitability remains weak – cut to ADD. DIVI: Q4 disappoints – downgrade to REDUCE. May MPC Minutes: Room for another 25bps rate cut. GUJGA: Robust margin outlook. IOCL: Covid-19 update – operations fast returning to normal

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BPCL: Inventory losses sink earnings. ARBP: Strong Q4; upside risk to EPS can support higher multiple. LPC: Lupin/Mylan win approval for biosimilar Enbrel in Europe. TRPC: Difficult Q4; growth recovery a few quarters away

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Rating Action: Moody’s downgrades India. Automobiles: May’20 Auto Sales – Tractors robust, other segments weak

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Weekly Wrap: Better macro prints supported markets. VMART: Lockdown exacts severe toll on business. Banking Credit Tracker: Lockdown mars retail credit growth

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Q4FY20 GDP: FY20 GDP growth drops; Q4 surprises positively. Fiscal update: FY20 fiscal deficit at 4.6% of GDP. LPC: In-line quarter; broader FY21 outlook intact

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FB: Expect profitability to come under pressure; cut to ADD. TVSL: Solid performance; valuations cap upside

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Q4 miss; near-term outlook subdued – REDUCE

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Weekly Wrap: Global data shows world economy improving. ASTRA: Volumes hit due to lockdown, maintain REDUCE

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SI: Lockdown erodes volumes; cut to ADD on limited upside. Monetary Policy Review: RBI cuts rates, extends measures to ease financial stress. UPLL: Margin miss but resilient outlook in tough environment. IDFCFB: Retailisation trend continues

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Insipid quarter all around

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AJP: Near-term growth concerns but demand outlook intact. DRRD: EBITDA miss; risk-reward fair – TP raised to Rs 4,210. BJAUT: Strong operational performance. LTI: Impressive show despite challenging times

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Takeaways from Gartner IT spending quarterly outlook

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Weekly Wrap: China expands; US, Europe and India yet to see recovery. Market Strategy: Covid-19 Stimulus – Lean fiscal stimulus offers little respite

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Trade and Government Stimulus Measures: Exports plunge by 60.3%, FM announces agri stimulus. Government Stimulus Measures: Ushering in private investments. Government Stimulus Measures: PSE privatisation, state borrowing raised by 2% of GDP

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MPHL: HP-DXC business losing steam; downgrade to SELL. Government Stimulus Measures: Stimulus for farmers, real estate, migrants and vendors. Wholesale Inflation: WPI food and fuel inflation eases. MGFL: Gold finance on steady wicket, MFI to face Covid-19 overhang

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Government Stimulus Measures: Aatmanirbhar package for MSMEs, NBFCs and Power. Market Strategy: Covid-19 Stimulus – First instalment of mega stimulus: spotlight on MSMEs. KMB: Liability franchise remains strong. MSIL: Near-team outlook hazy; maintain faith on solid franchise

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Monthly Chartbook: Co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response. FY21 GDP Update: Charting India’s growth trajectory. Inflation and IIP: Growth contracts, food inflation rises. Banking: Lending yields plummet in March

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Weekly Wrap: India steps up borrowing for stimulus. TCIEXP: Solid fundamentals to help navigate turbulent waters. Oil & Gas: Petroleum consumption plunges in April

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Interest Rate Outlook: Government alters H1 borrowing calendar. ICICIBC: Upfronting provisions to brace for impact. HDFCAMC: In-line results, FY21-FY22 equity flows to be subdued. RIL: RJio spearheads deleveraging. DRRD: EIR for Srikakulam (CTO-VI) API unit

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RBK: Operational beat but Covid-19 poses risks. HCLT: First among equals

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NITEC: Good quarter with confident commentary – upgrade to ADD. PSYS: IP business spoils the show yet again. Market Strategy: Macro View – Excise duties on fuel hiked to meet fiscal challenges. Oil & Gas: Mar’20 natural gas consumption slips

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Central Banks extend support as data disappoints

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RIL: RJio, Retail drive earnings; cut to ADD on limited upside. TECHM: Miss on all counts. LAURUS: Good beat; firm FY21 outlook - target raised to Rs 630. Building Materials: Gulf anti-dumping levy to hit ceramic tile producers

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Cloudy near-term outlook; cut to ADD

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Fortifying the balance sheet

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Weekly Wrap: Fed, ECB meet in focus. IIB: No respite from asset quality challenges

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Upbeat quarter; upgrade a notch to REDUCE

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Consecutive beat – we raise FY21/FY22 EPS by 11-17%

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Auto Q4FY20 Preview: Covid-19 stalls recovery hopes. RIL: RJio creates India profile for Facebook. KMB: Quality franchise; capital raising adds buffer – reiterate BUY

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Weekly Wrap: Oil falls, equities recover. INFO: Subpar operating performance, annual guidance suspended. Logistics Q4FY20 Preview: Expect an anaemic quarter

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RBI Measures: RBI strikes again. CCRI: Trade slowdown, ICD land purchase to remain overhangs. VRLL: Correction offers attractive entry point. HDFCB: Turning to wholesale for growth. NBFC: RBI’s Covid-19 measures positive but half-hearted

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TCS: Prelude to darker Q1FY21. Oil & Gas: Q4FY20 Preview – Pressure on cyclical earnings.

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Wholesale Inflation: WPI slips. Trade: Trade contraction shows impact of lockdown. WPRO: Weak quarter; guidance and dividends suspended. TRPC: Fundamentals intact, valuations compelling. PLNG: Resilient earnings from long-term contracts

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Building Materials: Lockdown to mar near-term prospects; structural drivers intact. Weekly Eco Wrap: Markets hopeful of a flattening COVID curve. March MPC Minutes: Growth concerns warranted a larger cut. Inflation: Inflation falls, will ease further

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Monthly Eco Chartbook: A few more weeks before visibility improves. IIP: Industrial growth rebounds in Feb, will slip in March. IT Services: ISG Index – Covid-19 to forestall deal activity in Q2CY20

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BAF: Covid-19 to hurt loan growth; recovery only in H2FY22. Pharmaceuticals: Q4FY20 Preview – Good Q4 for DRRD, LPC, DIVI, Laurus; FY21 guidance key to watch

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Markets rejoice fewer virus cases

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Return of pricing power

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ARBP: Sandoz deal called off; upgrade to BUY. ONGC: Riding the storm. Automobiles: Mar’20 Auto Sales – BS-VI shift + Covid-19 drive sharp slump. Oil & Gas: Feb’20 natural gas consumption surges

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Banking: Large private banks offer safe havens. Logistics: Channel check takeaways – lockdown wreaking havoc. HMCL: Valuations attractive – upgrade to BUY. Interest Rate Outlook: Government sticks to borrowing calendar. IIB: Concerns priced in

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Early indicators point to sharp dip in growth. SUNP: USFDA classifies Halol site as OAI

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TCI Express: Equipped to weather the Covid-19 storm; upgrade to BUY. Monetary Policy Review: RBI takes a bold move, more to follow

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Pandemic to stunt global growth, delay India’s recovery

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Demand environment anaemic but margins steady

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India Strategy: Covid-19 - Market bottom elusive – stick to select cash-rich stocks. Weekly Eco Wrap: COVID-19 cases jump, so does volatility

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UPL: Deleveraging to aid potential rerating – initiate with BUY. Wholesale Inflation: WPI eases. Weekly Eco Wrap: RBI likely to ease by 50bps. Bajaj Finance: Management meet takeaways – Business prospects robust

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AMCs: Low-levered, high-ROE and dividend-payout plays. Trade: Trade deficit narrows

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INFOE: On a slippery slope – initiate with SELL. Monthly Eco Chartbook: RBI’s rate cut to support growth. Inflation and IIP: Inflation falls, growth rebounds. Balance of Payments: Favourable outlook on CAD

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Unlevered stocks best picks in tremulous market

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US yields at all-time low

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Yes Bank rescue plan – stake purchase the lesser evil for SBIN

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Markets jittery as virus spreads. BRCM: Higher ethanol sales to support profitability. Automobiles: Feb’20 Auto Sales – Weak for most segments; PVs, tractors ahead

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Q3FY20 GDP: Growth to recover in FY21. IIB: Leadership overhang recedes

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Stage set for growth rebound

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Global monetary loosening on the cards

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February MPC Minutes: Policy space to open in Q3FY21. ARBP: USFDA error on Unit IV to erase recent stock gains. HMCL: Visit to HMCL’s R&D centre – key takeaways. MTLM: Demand slows but margins resilient

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EIR received for Unit IV – a key sentiment booster

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MDF traction to continue

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Fed, RBI minutes expected to be dovish. AL: Weak Q3FY20; recovery still some time away. Logistics: Rail container volumes steady, major port cargo sluggish

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AGLL: Soft quarter; downgrade to ADD on limited upside. Wholesale Inflation: WPI edges up to 9-month high. Trade: Trade deficit expands as oil imports increase. ONGC: Earnings miss, pricing in the worst. BPCL: Pricing in stake sale

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FNXP: Better PVC-EDC delta aids profitability – upgrade to BUY. GUJS: EBITDA underperforms; volume outlook improving

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Inflation and IIP: Inflation moves up, growth lower. ASTRA: Pipe segment continues to lead growth. MTLM: Gabon operations disappoint

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HEXW: Client-specific challenges receding; upgrade to BUY. Monthly Eco Chartbook: Growth seems to have bottomed out. MM: Healthy core performance; subsidiaries a drag again. PLNG: Margins improve, volumes underperform

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FSCSL: Limited growth visibility; cut to REDUCE. Weekly Eco Wrap: RBI policy lifts sentiment. OINL: Volumes remain a drag. DBL: Lacklustre quarter; order inflows key to watch. GAIL: Operationally robust; demerger uncertainty priced in

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ALKEM: Solid beat – moving to street-high TP of Rs 2,870. ARBP: Q3 in line; facility resolution, Sandoz key stock catalysts. MPHL: Cloudy DXC/HP visibility overshadows strong operating beat. MAHGL: Volumes drag and margins peak out

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Monetary Policy Review: RBI signals banks to lend. IGL: Margins expand, volume growth stable. LPC: Weak result; healthy FY21 outlook. VMART: Margins surprise positively. GREENP: Strong performance marred by forex losses

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DIVI: Earnings miss but expect recovery from Q4. HPCL: Earnings muted but largely priced in. GUJGA: Volumes and margins robust. CIPLA: EBITDA a tad lower but India/US deliver a good beat; retain BUY. MAHLOG: Auto weakness persists, non-auto on steady footing

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TVSL: Margins resilient; outlook challenging. CPBI: In-line quarter

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Over to RBI now. Automobiles: Jan’20 Auto Sales – PVs ahead of 2W and CVs

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Union Budget 2020-21: Counter cyclical Budget. Infrastructure: FY21 Budget – Reduced funding for infrastructure

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Economic Survey 2019-20: Pro-Growth. 1st RE of National Income: FY19 growth revised to 6.1%. SBIN: Recoveries aid earnings growth. TECHM: Good quarter buoyed by communications vertical. IOCL: Uncertainties abound but look priced in

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ECLX: Good show but repeat act unlikely – downgrade to SELL. BJAUT: Strong operational performance. TTMT: Underwhelming Q3 print; outlook better on cost control efforts. PIDI: Margins surprise positively, CBP volumes disappoint

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NITEC: Risk-reward unfavourable; cut to SELL. BAF: Healthy performance in secular slowdown. HGINFRA: Subdued execution; order inflow and AD award hold key

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MSIL: Operational miss largely led by transient impact. MGFL: Steady growth in gold and microfinance businesses. TCIEXP: Growth lacklustre but margin beat yields in-line EBITDA

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Awaiting a growth oriented Budget. DRRD: Margin beat to sustain; TP raised to Rs 3,350

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FY21 Budget Preview: Investment revival a priority. ICICIBC: Core profitability remains strong. SI: Margins surprise positively, volumes disappoint

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BAF 2.0 – Revamped growth engine; initiate with BUY

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AXSB: Stressed book still elevated. ALPM: Good beat – we raise EPS estimates by 5-7%

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Automobiles: Mixed signals – prefer PVs, two-wheelers. Weekly Eco Wrap: Union Budget to take centre-stage. KMB: Growth slips while credit cost spikes

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RIL: RJio and Retail drive earnings; cyclicals struggle. TCS: Margins resilient. HCLT: IP business drives robust Q3. HDFCB: Better retail asset quality trends

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GREENP: Firmer pricing, MDF plant ramp-up to boost margins. Logistics: Mixed trends

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WPRO: Tepid performance; soft outlook. Trade: Non-oil imports decline as demand remains weak. LTI: Stellar show

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Wholesale Inflation: WPI also inches up-Rate cut off the table. IIB: Asset quality amiss. MTCL: Impressive margin show but growth grounds weak ahead

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Retail Inflation: A big negative surprise. Weekly Eco Wrap: US-China trade deal at the epicentre

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Monthly Eco Chartbook: Gradual recovery on the cards. IIP: IIP improves marginally. INFO: Commentary lack new growth impetus. Infrastructure: Execution a mix bag. Logistics: Insipid quarter beckons

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Banking: Recoveries to aid earnings, Building Material: Tepid quarter

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Pressure on cyclical earnings

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FY20 GDP: Gradual revival seen in FY21. Pharmaceuticals: Q3 strong for DRRD, LPC, SUN, Alkem & Laurus

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Oil prices to guide Indian Markets

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Ambitious Rs 102tn infra push – funding holds the key

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RJio and Retail neutralise uncertainty over cyclicals

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Balance of Payments: Lower CAD and higher inflows to support INR. GUJS: Power demand could be a dark horse

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Indian 10Y yield falls, but oil prices may limit gains. GUJGA: Improving outlook on volumes

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Gurgaon-Sohna site visit indicates steady execution progress

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Weekly Eco Wrap: ‘Operation twist’ to guide Indian bonds. CRS: Near-term demand outlook remains challenging

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December MPC Minutes: Room for further easing remains. TRPC: NDR takeaways

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Analyst meet takeaways

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Wholesale Inflation: Food inflation drives WPI higher. Weekly Eco Wrap: US-China trade deal lifts sentiments. Logistics: Container rail volumes tick up in incrementally better month

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Non-oil-non-gold imports fall sharply

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Inflation and IIP: Food inflation at 70-month high. AGLL: Gati acquisition – deriving synergies an uphill task

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Monthly Eco Chartbook: Broader recovery still afar. LTI: Analyst meet takeaways

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ALPM: Entering into new multi-year earnings cycle – initiate with BUY; Weekly Eco Wrap: Spotlight on Fed and ECB

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In a league of its own – initiate with BUY

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Rate cuts to resume in Q1FY21

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US elections – a potential cyclical risk for Indian IT

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RBI to cut rates to prop growth

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Q2FY20 GDP: Slowdown intensifies as investments slip. Oil & Gas: Expert meeting takeaways

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VRLL: Robust model, formidable moats – initiate with BUY. LAURUS: NDR takeaways

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Upbeat margin guidance

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Markets await Q2 growth print

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Loan growth plummets to 8%

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Slowdown led by China and India. SADE: Execution challenges continue to cloud growth. Logistics: Slump in port volumes and container rail lead distance

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MPHL: Cut to ADD on HP/DXC channel uncertainty. Trade: Imports see a sharp dip, exports steady. KNRC: Strong quarter; revenue guidance cut on project delays. ASBL: Subdued execution, growth to pick up in H2. PNCL: Strong quarter, momentum to continue

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Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation eases to more than 3-year low. ONGC: Low costs drive profitability. PIDI: Volumes and margins disappoint. DBL: Subdued execution drives guidance cut. CRS: Weak product mix crimps margins

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Retail Inflation: CPI accelerates but core moderates. MUNI: Demand slowdown deepens. ARBP: Q2 beat; facility resolution, Sandoz key stock triggers. MUTH: Demand uptick to offset lower liability mobilisation. FNXP: Lower PVC-EDC delta hurts profitability

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MAHGL: Volumes drag and margins peak out – downgrade to SELL. IIP: IIP nosedives, case for another rate cut. Weekly Eco Wrap: India's inflation to rise above 4%. LPC: Kyowa divestment – good value unlocking.

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Oil & Gas: OMCs Q2 FY20– tepid GRMs, marketing earnings sustain. Monthly Eco Chartbook: Government spending to offset weak consumption. GAIL: Trading earnings slump. OINL: Operationally strong. GUJS: EBITDA above estimates; volume outlook improving

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ECLX: Cost control saves margins; no respite from structural challenges. GREENP: Healthy quarter; better capacity utilisation to fuel growth. SUNP: Headline beat on low R&D, US base ex-Taro weaker; REDUCE. IGL: Margins expand, volume growth robust

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CIPLA: All-round beat – India drives 6-11% EPS upgrade; retain BUY. MGFL: Healthy growth in gold and microfinance businesses. LPC: Q2 a slight miss; US to improve in H2. TRPC: Growth subdued across segments

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TCIEXP: In line quarter; downgrade to ADD on limited upside. TECHM: Enterprise business stage surprising growth. DIVI: Good Q2 beat; FY20 margin guidance cut is negative. GUJGA: Margins decline, robust volumes

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Weekly Eco Wrap: US-China trade deal to remain in focus. VMART: Higher expenses drive operating loss

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YES: No respite from asset quality woes. FSCSL: Dull Q2 as demand slowdown deepens. DRRD: Multiple one-offs – US to recover from Q3. LAURUS: All-round beat – formulations turn EBITDA positive; BUY

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IOCL: GRMs remain a drag, other segments outperform. CCRI: Decent operating performance in tough demand climate

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Volumes and margins surge

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Awaiting US Fed and BoJ policy decisions

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SBIN: Slippages abate but stressed book remains high. ASTRA: Operational performance in line. SI: Healthy volume growth

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Govt. opens up fuel retailing to non-oil companies

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NITEC: Solid Q2; cut to ADD on full valuations. KJC: Tepid quarter; upsides capped – downgrade to ADD. HCLT: Organic growth trending higher. HEXW: In-line operating show; near-term outlook cloudy

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Markets rally on US-China trade deal

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October MPC Minutes: Growth concerns imply another 25bps cut. RIL: Cyclicals a mixed bag, RJio and Retail surge ahead. LTI: On course for a rebound. Ather Energy: Key call takeaways. Agriculture: Maharashtra’s sugar production to nearly halve in 2019-20

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High attrition, hazy outlook worrying – reiterate SELL

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WPRO: Puzzling margin beat; unlikely to hold up. Trade: Trade deficit narrows as imports shrink. Logistics: Demand climate deteriorates further

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Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation eases to a 39-month low. Retail Inflation: Core moderates, food accelerates. Weekly Eco Wrap: US-China trade deal lifts sentiment

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IIP: Broad based slowdown. Infosys: Guidance signals industrywide growth headwinds. Cipla: Goa 483s – no data integrity concerns but many procedurals; BUY. Oil & Gas Q2FY20 Preview: GRMs rise but economic slowdown weighs on cyclicals.

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Monthly Eco Chartbook: Sentiment improves, growth to follow. IndusInd Bank: Asset quality blip, loan growth drops. TCS: Disappoints for second consecutive quarter. IT Services: ISG Index call takeaways: Mixed signals for Q3CY19

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Global activity dips in Sep’19. ARBP: Form 483 for Unit 7: Warning letter risk largely priced in

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Monetary Policy Review: Room for another rate cut. IT Services Q2FY20 Preview: Q2 to set tone for second-half and beyond

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Gold Finance NBFCs: Turning a corner. Infrastructure: NHAI analyst meet update – upbeat on BMP awards. Banking Credit Tracker: August non-food credit growth plummets to <10%.

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GRM surge on IMO may sustain for long

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Balance of Payments: CAD expands in Q1, but will moderate. Interest Rate Outlook: Adherence to borrowing glide path implies lower yields. Weekly Eco Wrap: RBI policy and H2 borrowing to drive yields

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MTLM: India business steady; Gabon to lend growth impetus. IT Services: Positive readthrough from Accenture results. Infrastructure: NHAI call takeaways – Order awards to gather pace from Q3

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Banking: Tax cut to bolster earnings. Midcaps: Tax cut benefits capped by demand headwinds. MAHLOG: Meeting takeaways: Reiterates growth plan; technology to the fore. Banking Credit Tracker: Business momentum remains sluggish

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Oil & Gas: Gains from tax cuts – PSUs, gas utilities top bets. Infrastructure: Corporate tax cut an earnings booster; HG Infra to gain the most. Logistics: Tax cut may have limited benefits; demand challenges persist

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Corporate tax cut – bonanza for healthcare services

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Weekly Eco Wrap: India corporate tax cut to boost investments. PLNG IN: Concerns seem overstated on investments in Tellurian

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Fiscal Reforms: As bold as it gets. FSCSL: Minority stake sale to strategic investor

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Cera Sanitaryware: Margins resilient despite soft demand. Logistics: Slowdown continues to take a toll

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BOBCAPS BFSI & Midcaps Conference – Key takeaways. Wholesale Inflation: Food prices rise, oil and commodity prices fall. Weekly Eco Wrap: Central Banks in focus

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Global and domestic demand weakens further

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Monthly Eco Chartbook: Transmission of lower rates to drive recovery. Inflation and IIP: Food accelerates, core stable

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Oil production targets ambitious

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PLNG: Earnings outlook upbeat. Weekly Eco Wrap: All eyes on ECB

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Successful stake sale to Cube; another deal in the offing

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Weekly Eco Wrap: US-China tariffs in focus. Oil & Gas: Jul’19 natural gas consumption robust. Banking: Credit Tracker – July non-food credit growth

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Q1FY20 GDP: Reforms and liquidity to drive recovery. Banking: Blockbuster merger – 10 PSBs fused into 4

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RBI dividend to boost growth

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India Economic Outlook: Lower rates, liquidity to drive cyclical recovery. Plastic Products: Anti-dumping duty on CPVC – Astral Poly a key beneficiary

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Global uncertainty increases

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CEO interaction takeaways: Navigating rough waters

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August MPC Minutes: Focus on growth to continue. BDE: Buffeted by headwinds

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Credit growth remains lacklustre

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FOMC and RBI minutes to take centre stage

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ASBL: Revenue miss; execution to scale up from H2FY20. SADE: Execution challenges cloud FY20 outlook. KNRC: Revenue disappoints but beat on margins; growth visibility intact. Logistics: Major ports, container rail volumes improve; EXIM sluggish

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RBI purchased US$ 2.5bn in the spot market in Jun’19, same as in May’19.

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CCRI: Annual report analysis: Well-rounded FY19 – raise to ADD. Wholesale Inflation: WPI inflation sees a steep fall. Trade: Gold and oil imports decline. IGL: Volumes robust, margins improve. PNCL: Execution par excellence; momentum to pick up further in H2

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ONGC: Valuations pricing in the worst case. HGINFRA: Revenue miss; expect steady growth momentum ahead. Retail Inflation: CPI moderates, room to cut rates. Weekly Eco Wrap: Global yields fell, India an outlier

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RIL: AGM highlights – Deleveraging via stake sale in cash cows. MAHGL: Margins surge, volumes drag; raise to ADD on positive risk-reward. Monthly Eco Chartbook: Global easing cycle on the way. IIP: IIP growth moderates. GAIL: Pricing in the worst case. DIVI: Lacklustre Q1, normalcy expected from Q3. MPHL: Analyst meet takeaways – Staying agile amid structural demand shift. OINL: Low costs drive earnings, but volumes remain a drag. AGLL: In-line quarter

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PLNG: Margins normalise, volumes improve. TECHM: Subsidiary troubles afresh; cut to REDUCE. ARBP: Good beat; progress on facility issues & Sandoz are key catalysts. LPC: Adj. EBITDA in line; US base trend to improve. HEXW: Strong margin showing

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HCLT: Organic growth trending up; upgrade to BUY on cheap valuations. PIDI: In-line quarter; cut to SELL on rich valuations. Monetary Policy Review: Unconventional rate cut. MUNI: Auto demand slump, margin contraction mar Q1. CIPLA: Core EBITDA miss; recovery ahead. HPCL: Near-term outlook remains bleak

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Fed cuts rate, RBI to follow. VMART: Margins continue to disappoint. DBL: Delayed appointed dates continue to hurt revenue. SOMC: Decent volume growth but lower margins. LAURUS: High opex offsets formulation positives; expect recovery in Q2

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GUJS: Volume surge, low LNG prices buoy outlook – upgrade to BUY. ECLX: No sign of respite on margins; cut to SELL. SBIN: Dismal quarter. CRS: Insipid quarter. MAHLOG: Disappointing quarter on all fronts. ASTRA: Piping segment aided by Rex acquisition spurs growth. Banking: June non-food credit growth sluggish at 11%

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FSCSL: Big earnings miss. ICICIBC: 20F filing highlights. IOCL: GRMs disappoint. CCRI: Volume concerns overshadow otherwise decent quarter

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Macro slowdown derails growth

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AXSB: Asset quality disappoints. TECHM: Miss on all counts. GUJGA: Volumes and margins surge. TRPC: Slowdown weighs on topline growth; margin expansion stands out. GRLM: Prominent player in India’s laminate market

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DRRD: Adj. EBITDA in line; upgrade to ADD on reasonable valuations. RIL: Diversification now bearing fruit. Weekly Eco Wrap: Awaiting US Fed stance. SI: Good volume growth but margins underperform

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ICICIBC: Stable on most fronts. MPHL: In-line operating performance

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PSYS: Results first cut – Lacklustre quarter. NJCC: Management call takeaways – A tough FY20; better times ahead

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KJC: Modest Q1; upgrade to BUY on reasonable valuations; NITEC: Healthy Q1 despite pockets of weakness in BFS

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Weekly Eco Wrap: Global easing cycle gains steam

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RIL: Concerns on cyclicals | HDFCB: Mixed quarter | LTI: Client-specific challenges to hamper growth in FY20

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Banking: Credit growth remains sluggish

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MINDTREE: TGT: Rs 670 (SELL) YESBANK: TGT: Rs 90 (SELL) WIPRO: TGT: Rs 230 (SELL)

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