Research Reports

The rupee has been quite volatile in the last two weeks with the tendency being more pronounced since the US Elections

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Following softening core inflation in Dec’24 in the US, now labour market data is pointing towards a weaker momentum

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UK and US CPI prints for Dec’24 have provided much need relief to the bond markets

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Both BoJ and US Fed are scheduled to announce their respective policy decisions later this month

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WPI inflation rose to 2.4% in Dec’24 from to 1.9% in Nov’24, led by increase in manufactured product inflation and slower pace of deceleration in fuel and power inflation

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Amidst US President-elect Trump’s tariff policy uncertainty, China’s exports have hit record high, as they rose by 10.7% (est.: 7.3%) in Dec’24, up from 6.7% in Nov’24

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CPI showed some softening led by food inflation

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Labour market in the US ended CY24 on solid ground, with non-farm employment rising by 256k in Dec’24

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IIP growth registered a robust growth of 5.2% in Nov’24 against a growth of 3.7% in Oct’24

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Advance estimates peg India’s growth at 6.4% for FY25.

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Global growth is expected to remain stable at 2.8% in 2025 (same as 2024) as per the UN World Economic and Prospects Report 2025

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Reports suggesting that the incoming US President may declare a national economic emergency to impose wide ranging tariffs soured investor sentiments

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US macro data once again underscored the need for keeping rates higher for longer

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NSO has estimated that Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 6.4% in FY25 growth compared with a growth of 8.2% in FY24

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Global composite PMI rose to 52.6 in Dec’24 from 52.4 in Nov’24, led by a steady expansion in services activity

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In Dec’24, BoB ECI witnessed a significant correction on a sequential basis and declined by 0.5%

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US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in Dec’24 (48.4 in Nov’24), just shy of the 50-mark

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At the end of 2024 US economy continued to give mixed signal regarding growth

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The year 2025 has begun on a note of heightened global uncertainties

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The year 2024 saw a stellar performance by global equity indices

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Global equity indices recorded stellar performance in 2024

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In the US, treasury yields remained elevated as market adjusted for the potential inflationary impact of the policies that will be laid down by incoming Trump administration

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Flash PMIs by Markit indicate manufacturing activity continues to deteriorate across US and Europe

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In the coming days, investors will turn their focus towards the US jobs report which might offer some guidance on the strength of the economy

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India’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q2FY25 from 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY24

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US jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 224,000 in the week ended 14 Dec 2024

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Movement in global markets remained muted due to thin holiday trading

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US core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment plans, rebounded strongly in Nov’24 and increased by 0.7%

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US core PCE index rose at a softer pace of 0.1% in Nov’24 after advancing by 0.3% last month (MoM), providing further cues of moderating price pressures

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US macro data shows that economy continues to remain strong, giving further merit to Fed’s higher for longer rates in CY25

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In line with market expectations, US Fed reduced policy rates by 25bps to 4.25-4.5%, bringing the cumulative cuts since Sep’24 to 100bps

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US retail sales rose by 0.7% (MoM) in Nov’24, up from 0.5% in Oct’24

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Markit flash PMIs show that manufacturing activity remains under stress in Europe and US

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WPI inflation eased to 1.9% in Nov’24 from 2.4% in Oct’24

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Economic activity in China remains worrisome, as both consumption and investment demand fades

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US PPI data showed stickiness on a MoM basis buoyed by food

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US CPI data firmed up by 0.3% in Nov’24 against 0.2% in Oct’24, on a sequential basis

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Global markets monitored a slew of political and macro developments

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CPI inflation in China eased to 0.2% in Nov’24 (est. 0.5%) from 0.3%, signalling continued weakness in domestic demand

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India’s GDP growth for Q2FY25 moderated to 5.4% in Q2FY25 much lower than anticpated

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In the US, payroll data showed some aberration as it went up to 227K in Nov’24 from 36K last month

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The MPC with a 4-2 majority kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5%

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OPEC+ in its highly anticipated meeting decided to postpone the output hike by over 3 months on the back of weak demand and rising output levels outside the group

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed moderation in Nov’24 both on a sequential and YoY basis

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Following the results of Presidential election in the US, market volatility significantly increased across the globe

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US Fed’s Beige book noted the underlying strength in the economy as economic activity expanded moderately in Nov’24

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A new political upheaval unfolded in South Korea after to and fro on the imposition of martial law

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India has recently witnessed a lot of buzz surrounding the flocking of international pop, rock, EDM and other popular genre artists to cater to the music enthusiast

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Political turmoil unfolded in France as the current government is on the brink of a potential collapse

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INR continues to remain under pressure and traded at record low in Nov’24

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RBI’s monthly data showed a moderation in credit growth across sectors in Oct’24

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Moderation in US 10Y yield occurred because of risk alignment surrounding political developments in the region which has resulted in higher demand for sovereign debt assets

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US President-elect Trump recently made comments on the so called ‘BRICS nation’ with a warning of not creating a new currency that could replace dollar or else they will have to face 100% tariffs

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According to the recently released estimates, the Q2FY25 GDP growth has been at a 7-quarter low on the back of softness in manufacturing sector

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India’s GDP growth softened to 5.4% in Q2FY25, following 8.1% growth in Q2FY24

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Trading volumes in global markets were largely muted as US markets remained closed for Thanksgiving holidays

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US GDP growth was left unchanged at 2.8% in Q3CY24 led by buoyant consumer spending (3.5%)

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Fed minutes indicated the FOMC members broadly agree on going easing on future rate cuts

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Investors’ focus remained firmly on developments in the US

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Flash PMIs signalled a sharp deterioration in economic activity in both the Eurozone and UK, even as US economy continued to power ahead led by the buoyant services sector

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US labour market data shows that continuing claims (4-week moving average), a better indicator for gauging labour market conditions, rose by 5k to 1.88mn to reach its highest level since end-Nov’21

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In view of elevated mortgage rates in the US, single-family housing starts fell by 6.9% in Oct’24 to 970k units

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As economic calendar remains tepid so far, market participants are monitoring statements of central bank officials and appointments made by Trump administration for future guidance

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UK’s economy contracted by (-) 0.1% in Sep’24 on a monthly basis after increasing by 0.2% in Aug’24

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INR has remained under pressure and traded near a record low for most of the sessions in Nov’24

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India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a 13-month high of US$ 27.1bn in Oct’24, led by a pickup in oil and gold imports

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WPI inflation rose to 2.4% in Oct’24 compared with 1.8% in Sep’24 led by elevated food inflation

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US CPI remained in line with estimates, albeit pace of disinflation slowed

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A stronger dollar weighed on currency indices

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CPI surprised on the upside led by food inflation

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IIP growth rose by 3.1% in Sep’24, following (-) 0.1% decline in Aug’24

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Global markets continued to weigh in a stronger dollar and protectionist policy, post US Presidential Election results

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A sweeping victory has brought back Donald Trump to the White House for the second time

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In the run-up to Presidential elections in the US, market volatility was heightened as it was presumed to be a close race between Trump and Harris

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Global markets remained watchful ahead of the key data releases in the current week (inflation reading in US and Eurozone, growth print in UK and Japan and retail sales and industrial production in China)

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US Presidential election results gave a clear mandate to Trump

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In line with market expectations, US Fed lowered its policy rates by 25bps to 4.5-4.75%, in view of easing labour market conditions

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) witnessed significant upswing both on a sequential and YoY basis

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In a tight race between Trump and Harris, President elect Trump proved to be a clear winner

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Globally, all eyes are set on US Presidential election results as voting ends

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As final voting date for US Presidential election nears, there remains heightened uncertainty regarding the outcome

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INR depreciated by 0.3% in Oct’24 (0.1% appreciation in Sep’24) and even fell to its lifetime low of 84.09/$

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Upward rally in US 10Y steered other global yields

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US labour market data is pointing towards a slowdown, as non-farm payrolls rose by only 12k in Oct’24 versus est.: 113k increase

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Global markets remained on edge monitoring host of macro data releases

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Global markets monitored slew of corporate earnings which remained upbeat

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Global markets were largely upbeat as investors monitored corporate earnings

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US economy continued to show signs of resilience

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Flash US PMI noted the growing strength in the economy (54.3 from 54 in Sep’24) supported by uptick in business activity, with growth driven by services sector

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Fed’s Beige book report noted the economic activity across the country has been sluggish with consumers holding off their spending decision until the elections

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IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook stated the global growth is expected to be stable but ‘underwhelming’ at 3.2% in CY24 and CY25, unchanged from the Apr’24 report

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Recent commentary by Fed officials brought focus back on the trajectory of interest rates

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Major data releases form China lifted hopes of a possible rebound in the economy

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Global markets monitored slew of macro releases

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India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed down in Sep’24 on a sequential basis, led by a downward correction in gold imports

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Global macro indicators showed signs of weakness

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Global equity indices were impacted by a downward rally in tech stocks driven by weakness in semiconductor sector

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INR depreciated by 0.3% in the first fortnight of Oct’24

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Global currency market lost its breather amidst a firming dollar as expectations got build up over a cautious neutral stance by Fed

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CPI inflation inched up sharply to 5.5% in Sep’24 from 3.7% in Aug’24, as the favorable base effect waned

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WPI inflation climbs up to 1.8% in Sep’24 compared with 1.3% in Aug’24 driven by food inflation

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US PPI remained unchanged in Sep’24, (est. +0.1%) following a 0.2% increase in Aug’24 (MoM), suggesting that price pressures remain broadly contained

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IIP growth fell by (-) 0.1% in Aug’24, from 4.7% in Jul’24, mainly driven by base effect

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US CPI rose by 0.2% (MoM) in Sep’24, remaining unchanged from last month, but came in slightly higher than est.: 0.1%

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Fed’s FOMC minutes show that Sep’24 rate cut was not a unanimous decision, a first since 2005

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The monetary policy committee of the RBI voted by a 5-1 vote to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%

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Australia’s central bank, RBA, had a hawkish tone to its minutes, as it stated that the “policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target”

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Stronger than expected labour market in the US has revived fears that Fed may not be lowering rates as much as markets were pricing in earlier

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US jobs data has again shed light on resilience of the labour market in the country

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RBI has recently released its data on sector-wise credit growth till Aug’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) exhibited some stickiness in Sep’24

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East remained a top focus for investors amid an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Iran

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US private payrolls increased by 143,000 in Sep’24 beating estimates of a 120,000 increase

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The global yields largely softened in Sep’24

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to vote for status quo on both rates and stance in its October policy meet

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As the monsoon has begun retreating, we look at how rainfall fared this season

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INR appreciated by 0.1% in Sep’24 against a depreciation of -0.2% seen in Aug’24

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Markit manufacturing PMI shows that activity in major European economies (Germany/France) remains in severe stress, and activity in Japan is also now beginning to deteriorate

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Investors reassessed the path of US monetary policy, as the Fed Chair quashed hopes of another jumbo rate cut

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India’s current account deficit was recorded at 1.1% of GDP in Q1 FY25, compared with a surplus of US$ 0.5% of GDP in Q4 FY24

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Fed recently delivered a super-sized rate cut of 50bps, bringing its policy rate down to 4.75-5%

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US PCE moderated to 0.1% from 0.2% in Jul’24 (MoM), suggesting a further dip in underlying price pressures

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Centre’s H2 FY25 gross borrowings have been pegged at Rs. 6.61 lakh crore, implying that the FY25 borrowing target has been maintained at Rs 14.01 lakh crore

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Upbeat data from the US reaffirmed resilience in the world’s largest economy

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OECD in its economic outlook report for Sep’24 noted that global growth is likely to stabilize with a forecast of 3.2% in CY24 and CY25

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Policy announcement by PBoC was amongst the biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic and included more rate cuts along with funding packages

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In a surprise move, China’s regulators announced a slew of measures and this included cutting down the short term 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (from 1.7%) and lowering down the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5%

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Global Central Banks sprung in to action after Fed kick-started the monetary easing cycle after a span of 4-years by aggressively reducing rates by 50bps and bringing the benchmark rate to 4.75-5%

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Global economies have been tackling the challenges of uneven growth, divergence in global central bank actions, risk of looming war and escalating geo-political tensions

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Global markets showed the impact of outsized rate cut by Fed followed by a dovish guidance

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Fed delivered an outsized rate cut of 50bps

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WPI inflation moderates to a 4-month low of 1.3% in Aug’24 compared with 2% in Jul’24 supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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INR was broadly stable as it was down by only 0.03% in the first fortnight of Sep’24, following 0.2% decline in Aug’24, to currently trade at 83.90/$, bouncing back from its lifetime low of 83.98/$

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Momentum got built around in the global market over beginning of rate cut cycle by Fed

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Global markets remained cautious as a host of policy decisions are scheduled (US, UK, Japan, Brazil and South Africa)

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In line with market expectations, ECB lowered its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.5% and refinancing rate to 3.65% (60bps decline)

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IIP growth rose a tad to 4.8% in Jul’24 from 4.7% in Jun’24, supported by jump in manufacturing sector

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CPI inflation inched up marginally to 3.7% from a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24

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Much awaited US CPI report came broadly in line with market expectations with headline CPI rising by 0.2% (MoM) in Aug’24, unchanged from last month

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Global markets keenly await the release of US CPI data, due later today

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South-West monsoon has progressed well so far with cumulative rainfall in the country currently 8% above the LPA (9 Sep 2024)

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As US labour market data aligns more with the possibility of a 25bps rate cut by Fed later this month, investors await CPI data for more cues to bet if Fed will lower rates by a higher quantum

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US labour market data was unable to provide cues on quantum of rate cut by Fed later this month

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Markit global manufacturing PMI shows further contraction in global activity as the index slipped to 8-month low of 49.5 in Aug’24 from 49.7 in Jul’24

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Data released ahead of the crucial jobs report, painted a fuzzy picture of the US labour market

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) shows a significant moderation in underlying price pressure

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Concerns over US labour market resurfaced as job openings fell sharply in Jul’24

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Production and price data gave an indicative picture of how consumption demand is faring

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US ISM manufacturing PMI edged up marginally to 47.2 in Aug’24 from 46.8 in Jul’24, but remained firmly in the contraction zone, suggesting a continued weakness in the manufacturing sector

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Rainfall is currently 8% above the LPA till 2 Sep 2024

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Barring Eurozone, manufacturing activity globally showed nascent signs of recovery in Aug’24

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INR depreciated by 0.2% in Aug’24 (-0.4% in Jul’24) to currently trade at 83.87/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.97/$

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Most of global yields eased in Aug’24

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US consumer spending increased at a robust pace of 0.5% in Jul’24, from 0.3% in Jun’24

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Eight core industry growth rose to 6.1% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24

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India’s GDP rose by 6.7% in Q1FY25, following 7.8% growth in Q4FY24

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US economy rose at a much faster pace than anticipated with the GDP growth for Q2 revised upwards to 3% (previously 2.8%) from 1.4% in Q1 led by robust consumer spending which accounts for 2/3rd of the economy

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The US Fed official Bostic, in his remarks noted that its ‘time to move’ on rate cuts, however he was cautious and stated he will closely monitor the upcoming jobs and inflation reports before moving ahead with any decision

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Rainfall is currently 7% above the LPA till 27 Aug 2024

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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence index in the US scaled up to 103.3 in Aug’24 (highest level in 6-months) from 101.9 in Jul’24

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In the US, new orders for durable goods surged by 9.9% in Jul’24 (highest in 4-years) on a MoM basis after declining by (-) 6.9% in Jun’24

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In one of the most anticipated speech by Fed chair, there has been clarity on the imminent rate cuts as he stated ‘the time has come’

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Markets remained vigilant ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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US Fed minutes reflected a dovish tone with majority of FOMC members acknowledging that easier monetary policy condition is warranted in the wake of recent softening of inflation data

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 20 Aug 2024

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Global yields showed some softening bias led by US as positions are unwinding ahead of Fed Chair’s speech

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Recently, two important instruments of household financial savings have garnered quite a bit of attention

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Global markets remained cautious ahead of speeches of major central bank officials

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Global markets had a breather to some extent

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India Inc.’s performance in Q1 FY25 was somber, with the sequential moderation in profit growth becoming much more pronounced

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Signalling strength in the US economy, advance retail sales accelerated to 1% much higher than expected in Jul’24 after declining by 0.2% in Jun’24

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports (both on sequential and cumulative basis)

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WPI inflation moderates to a 3-month low of 2% in Jul’24 compared with 3.4% in Jun’24, supported by softening of both food and fuel & power inflation

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PPI inflation in the US eased to 0.1% (est.: 0.2%) in Jul’24 from 0.2% in Jun’24

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Rainfall is currently 6% above the LPA till 12 Aug 2024

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In Japan, PPI inflation rose by 3% in Jul’24, following 2.9% rise in Jun’24

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CPI inflation eased to a 59-month low of 3.5% in Jul’24 from 5.1% in Jun’24, led by a favorable base

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Supported by cooling inflation and signs of weakness in the labour market (continuing claims highest since Nov’21), investors are growing more confident that the Fed may announce a jumbo 50bps rate cut in its Sep’24 meeting

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Major high frequency indicators are giving mixed signals regarding domestic growth

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US jobless claims declined more than expected last week, suggesting that bets of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy might be unfounded

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The RBI delivered no major surprise in the latest monetary policy

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Calm returned to the global markets after comments from BoJ Deputy Governor who pushed back against the possibility of rate hikes at a time when the markets are unstable

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Global markets recovered after a sharp sell-off at the start of the week as investors assessed the global economic outlook and monetary policy

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The sell-off in global markets continued as investors assessed the possible impact of a US recession

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Markit global manufacturing PMI noted downturn in global activity as the index slipped to 49.7 in Jul’24 from 50.8 in Jun’24

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A perceptible slowdown in US labour market spooked global investors and bolstered the case for the start of an aggressive policy easing cycle by the Fed

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has shown considerable momentum

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The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold repo rate steady for the 8th consecutive meeting in Jul’24

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Rainfall is currently 4% above the LPA till 2 Aug 2024

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Concerns around weakness in global economy resurfaced and impacted the market indices, with US treasury yields dropping below the 4% mark

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INR depreciated by 0.4% in Jul’24 to currently trade at 83.73/$, close to its lifetime low of 83.74/$

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Global yields softened further in Jul’24

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US Fed opted to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25-5% (23-year high) mark for the 8th meeting in a row

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Eight core industry growth eased to 4% in Jun’24 from 6.4% in May’24

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Centre’s fiscal deficit remained contained at Rs. 1.4 lakh crores in Q1 FY25 which is only 8.1% of the budget estimate, compared with 25.3% of the target achieved last year

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In line with expectations, BoJ raised the policy rates to 0.25% from 0.1% earlier and also shared the plan to taper its bond purchasing programme

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Rainfall is currently 2% above the LPA till 29 Jul 2024

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In a data jammed week, investors will closely look for signals or a dovish tone from the upcoming policy meet by Fed

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Prospects of a rate cut by Fed were further lifted given the recent PCE print, Fed’s preferred gauge to monitor inflation

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Global markets remained on vigil tracking host of macro releases

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Flash PMIs of major economies painted an optimistic picture of global economy

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All India cumulative seasonal rainfall is 1% above LPA as of 23 Jul 2024

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Global equity and currency markets remained under pressure while yields softened

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In order to arrive at budget ratios, government makes some critical assumptions.

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Global markets still centred around political developments in the US

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Stock markets in India have caught the attention of the investors and regulators for a variety of reasons

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Using the latest data from IMF fiscal monitor, we make a global comparison in this note to understand position of major economies, in terms of key fiscal indicators

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The Economic Survey for FY 2023-24 lays down the roadmap for the government’s objective of Viksit Bharat by 2047

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A firmer dollar weighed on currency and equity markets globally

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 20k to 243k (est.: 230k), and continuing claims also rose, to 1.87mn (est.: 1.86mn) reaching its highest level since Nov’21

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Even with mixed macro data coming in from the US, rate cut bets by Fed in Sep’24 continue to hold ground

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India’s merchandise trade deficit was higher in Q1FY25 at US$ 62.3bn versus US$ 56.2bn in Q1FY24, as imports have risen at a sharper pace than exports

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Despite the advancement of South West monsoon couple of days early across the country, rainfall still remains 2% below the LPA till 15 Jul 2024

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The recent dovish commentary by Fed Chair weighed in on investors' sentiments and reinforced the rate cut expectations, with the earliest cut likely in Sep'24

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INR remained range bound in the 1st fortnight of Jul’24 (till 12 Jul) and depreciated by 0.2% to currently trade at 83.54/$, closer to its lifetime low of 83.65/$

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WPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.4% in Jun’24 compared with an increase of 2.6% in May’24, driven by surge in both food and manufactured inflation

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China’s GDP growth slowed more than expected in Q2CY24 to 4.7% (est.: 5.1%) and 5.3% growth noted in Q1

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The main budget for 2024-25 is most likely to shed light on vision of the government for the next five years and bring to focus the key themes that will help achieve the dream of making India a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047

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US CPI report cemented the case for a Fed rate cut in Sep’24

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India’s inflation has witnessed considerable volatility in the last few years

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Fed Chair reiterated that US inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s target range but shied away from committing to a widely expected rate cut in Sep’24

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While acknowledging the progress made in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s target, the Fed Chair refrained from providing a timeline for future rate cuts

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Global markets treaded water as investors await further cues on US monetary policy

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The advancement of South West monsoon (way earlier than anticipated) across the country has resulted in above normal rainfall at 2% above LPA till 8 Jul 2024

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This month remains crucial

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US jobs report indicated a softening momentum in the labour market, bolstering the case for a rate cut in Sep’24

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Given that the Indian economy is poised to grow at a strong pace in the coming years the real estate sector is expected to play a pivotal role in this story by providing a substantial boost to infrastructure

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The recent softening of labour market data from US bolstered hopes of Fed rate cut as early as Sep’24

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A slew of data from the US signalled softening of economy and stoked hopes of Fed rate cut

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Markit global manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.9 in Jun’24 from 51 in Apr’24

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US labour market data surprised on the upside, as JOLT survey results showed that 221k jobs were added in May’24 to reach 8.14 (est: 7.91mn), up from 7.91mn in Ap’24

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INR appreciated marginally in Jun’24, after touching a fresh record-low during the month

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Global yields continued their downward trajectory

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As per the ISM data, US manufacturing PMI declined for the 3rd straight month, down to 48.5 from 48.7 and the price pressure on inputs eased to a 6-month low

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Macro data from the US shows that inflation is cooling down and consumer spending has also weakened

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India has retained its position as the world leader in remittance inflows in 2023 as well

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Slew of data releases were scheduled in the US

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India is in the midst of a sweltering heatwave, which is the longest ever recorded in the country

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Markets monitored a slew of macro data releases

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Markets kept close eye tracking comments from several Fed officials, which gave conflicting signals

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In a data light trading day, investors remained cautious. Political events are also at play

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Flash PMI data of US showed that the economy is holding ground with services index expected to climb up to its 26-month high

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In line with expectation, BoE maintained status quo and kept rates unchanged at 5.25% (16-year high)

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In China, PBoC kept the interest rate unchanged with the 1-year lending rate at 3.45% and 5-year LPR at 3.95%

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Retail sales in the US inched up at a much slower pace than anticipated at 0.1% in May’24 (estm: 0.3%)

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Global markets will be eyeing fresh economic drivers, post the Fed rate decision last week of keeping rates on hold

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INR faced significant volatility in the 1st fortnight of Jun’24 and depreciated by 0.1% to currently trade near a low of 83.57/$

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The higher growth in NRI deposits has been in tandem with faster pace of increase in aggregate deposits

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WPI inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 2.6% in May’24, following an increase of 1.3% in Apr’24 due to elevated food prices

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Providing fresh cues of abating inflationary pressures, PPI inflation in US declined unexpectedly by 0.2% in May’24 (est. +0.1%) following a 0.5% increase in Apr’24

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US CPI remained unchanged in May’24 (est. 0.1% increase), after increasing by 0.3% in Apr’24 on a YoY basis

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CPI print came in slightly lower than our estimate at 4.75% (BoB estimate: 4.9%). Food inflation continued to remain sticky

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Budget to focus on fiscal consolidation

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World Bank has upgraded its global growth forecast to 2.6% in 2024, from 2.4% estimated earlier

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Domestic macro fundamentals continue to post steady recovery

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Global markets await key US CPI report and the outcome of Fed policy meet this week; even as latest US jobs data dented prospects of a rate cut

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US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected by 272,000 in May’24 (est. 185,000), indicating underlying resilience of the labour market

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MPC for the 8th consecutive time kept policy rates on hold, by keeping repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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In line with market expectations, ECB decided to lower its key policy rates (1st since Sep’19) by 25bps (main refinancing rate at 4.25% now)

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Financial performance of India Inc. continued to be marked by a moderation in sales growth, even as profit growth picked up when compared with last year

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Private payroll data (ADP employment) in the US shows that employers added 152k jobs in May’24—slowest in 4 months and lower than est.: 175k and 188k in Apr’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI rose to 22-month high of 50.9 in May’24 from 50.3 in Apr’24

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JOLTS data released by the US labour department, shows that job openings in Apr’24 fell by 296k to 8.06mn (est.: 8.36mn)—lowest level since Feb’21

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US ISM manufacturing index slipped to 48.7 (est.: 49.6) in May’24 from 49.2 in Apr’24, on account of contraction in new orders and production

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In May’24, INR has traded in the range of 83.10/$-83.53/$

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Global yields were mixed in May’24 amidst a changing narrative on the future course of global monetary policy

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In the upcoming credit policy meet of RBI, which is scheduled on 5-7 Jun 2024, we expect MPC to maintain status quo

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US PCE inflation came in at 0.3% in Apr’24 (MoM), unchanged from Mar’24

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Indian economy rose by 8.2% in FY24 after expanding by 7.2% FY23

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A deluge of data is expected to guide the markets including inflation reading form US and Europe

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Fed’s Beige book noted the economic activity in the US continued to expand at modest pace during the Apr-Mid May period

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Investors will turn their attention towards key inflation reading from both sides of the Atlantic

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Germany’s IFO business sentiment index remained steady in May at 89.3 with sectors such as manufacturing, construction and trade making steady recovery even as services sector continues to remain a challenge

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Durable goods orders in the US rose by 0.7% in Apr’24, versus (-) 0.8% estimated decline, and following 0.8% increase in Mar’24

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Markets remained abreast monitoring slew of data releases globally and assessing Fed minutes

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RBI declared a record Rs. 2.11 lakh crores surplus transfer to the government in FY25, compared with Rs. 87,416 crores in FY24

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Fed officials again gave conflicting signals on future direction of rates

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When talking about the investment demand of Indian economy, the first data point which comes to our mind is the gross fixed capital formation, which basically speaks about additions to fixed assets such as machinery and equipment

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Fed officials remained jittery about the trajectory of inflation

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While welcoming the dip in inflation in Apr’24, two key Fed officials reiterated the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts

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INR traded in a thin range in May’24 and depreciated marginally by 0.1%

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Volatility in US 10Y yield steered movement in bond yields of major economies

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CPI inflation in US moderated to 0.3% in Apr’24 (est. 0.4%) from 0.4% in Mar’24 (MoM)

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US announced fresh tariffs on a slew of Chinese imports such as semiconductors and EVs

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WPI inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 months, as it rose by 1.3% in Apr’24 from 0.5% in Mar’24

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Global markets remained range-bound ahead of US CPI data

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CPI print came in slightly higher than our estimate at 4.8% (BoB estimate: 4.7%)

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The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the Bloomberg and JP Morgan global bond indices has excellent implications for Indian market and the economy as a whole, raising its standing amongst its global peers

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Uncertainty reigned over Fed’s rate cuts as comments from Fed officials and US macro data pushed back the possibility of a rate cut

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IIP growth moderated to 4.9% in Mar’24 from 5.6% in Feb’24, led by improvement in manufacturing and electricity output

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Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 22k to 231k (est.:214k) for the week ending 4 May 2024

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Uncertainty around timing and quantum of Fed’s rate cut increased in Apr’24 as tightness in labour market dampened hopes of Fed rate cut before Sep’24

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China’s exports rebounded in Apr’24 as they rose by 1.5% (in line with expectation) after falling by (-) 7.5% in Mar’24, led by exports of automobiles, home appliances, and LCD panels

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Reserve Bank of Australia, in line with market expectations, left its policy rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive time in May’24

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Softer than expected labour market data in the US has refuelled hopes of maybe 2 rate cuts (cumulative 50bps) by Fed this year

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Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 175k in Apr’24, much lower than estimated 240k and also lower than 315k in Mar’24

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Markit global manufacturing PMI slipped from 20-month high of 50.6 in Mar’24 to 50.3 in Apr’24

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US labour market data showed persistent tightening

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US Fed kept policy rate unchanged in line with expectations

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Manufacturing activity in China showed revival with Caixin PMI index remaining above the 50-mark for the 2nd consecutive month

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Macro data prints in the US pointed towards robust spending and stable income growth

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Growth in US economy slowed down to 1.6% at annualized pace in Q1CY24 from 3.4% in Q4CY23

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In the US, new orders for durable goods climbed up by 2.6% to US$ 283.4bn in Mar’24 from 0.7% in Feb’24 on a monthly basis, reflecting strength in the economy

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India’s business activity (flash composite PMI) surged to a 14-year high to 62.2 in Apr’24 from 61.8 in Mar’24 supported by strength in both services and manufacturing sector

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As the concerns around Middle East conflict eased, global indices rebounded with demand for safe haven assets waning

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Recent reports of possible de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel gained prominence, after Iran signalled the possibility of no retaliation against Israel

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Reports of an escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran have roiled global markets

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IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.1% estimated earlier, led by better-than-expected growth outcomes in advanced economies

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Risk aversion was visible in global markets with increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and dollar amidst tensions in Middle East

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India’s external position remained strong with trade deficit narrowing sharply in FY24

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IMD its first long range forecast for the year has stated the South-West Monsoon (Jun-Sep) this year is expected to be above normal

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In Apr’24 so far, INR has depreciated marginally

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Headline WPI inflation accelerated to 0.5% in Mar’24 from 0.2% in Feb’24, but came in lower than our estimate of 1.5%

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Geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated amidst increased hostilities between Iran and Israel, which is likely to weigh on investors’ sentiments

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Global monetary policy easing cycle is likely to get delayed as the growth and inflation dynamics in US has once again bolstered the case for higher for longer rates

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World’s largest democracy will hold General Elections this month with over 96.8cr eligible voters expected to participate in this spectacle and elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha

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ECB in its latest policy meeting decided to leave the key rates unchanged, but for the 1st time incorporated the statement that it will loosen the policy once it gets clear indication of inflation nearing the 2% mark

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In some positive news for Germany, industrial production in Feb’24 rose by 2.1% (MoM) versus est.: 0.3% increase and 1.3% increase in Jan’24

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US labour market is showing signs of resilience with non-farm payrolls for Mar’24 at 303k, much higher than est.: 214k and 270k in Feb’24

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In its first monetary policy for FY25, MPC has kept the policy rates on hold, with repo rate at 6.5%, SDF at 6.25% and MSF and bank rate at 6.75%

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Global markets monitored comments of several Fed officials who again gave conflicting signals

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Markit global manufacturing PMI data reveals that headline PMI index rose to 50.6 in Mar’24, from 50.3 in Feb’24

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Fed Chair in his remarks pointed out that recent macro data reading has not ‘materially changed’ the interest rate picture

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Monetary Policy committee in the upcoming policy meet is likely to retain the repo rate and continue with the ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance

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In the data heavy week, markets traded cautiously

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An analysis of consumption demand and bank credit offtake has shown that: The consumption picture is puzzling. But the funding side of demand has evolved strongly

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US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in Mar’24, defying expectation of 48.3

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In FY24, we observed that Indian equity markets (Sensex for the purpose of our analysis) was one of the best performing markets after Japan’s Nikkei and US’ S&P 500

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INR depreciated by 0.6% in Mar’24, reversing the gains it made in the last 3-months

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The trajectory of India’s 10Y yield in FY24 has been interesting

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Recently comments by fed officials have made a case for divided house as far as the interest rate cuts is expected in Jun’24

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In India, Centre’s borrowing calendar was released for H1FY25

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In US, durable goods orders made a recovery after it rose by 1.4% in Feb’24 (-6.9% in Jan’24)

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Investors closely monitored the rate decision by global central banks

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A busy week for global central banks came to an end with a slew of decisions across the globe

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In line with market expectations, US Fed left its key policy rates unchanged in Mar’24 at 5.25-5.5%

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Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of monetary policy has gained prominence in both political as well as social debates across the world

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Stronger than expected housing starts data in the US has raised uncertainty around Fed’s timing and quantum of rate cuts

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Global equity indices have broadly witnessed an uptick for the 12-month ending Mar’24 (till 18 Mar)

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In line with market expectations, BoJ hiked rates for the 1st time in 17 years, as it increased short-term rates (primary policy tool) to 0-0.1% from (-) 0.1%

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Industrial production in the US rebounded (MoM) in Feb’24 as it rose by 0.1% (est.: 0%), following downwardly revised (-) 0.5% decline noted in Jan’24

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INR continued to trade in a narrow trading range in Mar’24 and has noted a modest gain of 2paise over Feb’24

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PPI inflation in US rose by 0.6% in Feb’24 on a MoM basis, beating estimates of a 0.3% increase, led by higher gasoline prices

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WPI inflation slowed further to 0.2% in Feb’24 from 0.3% in Jan’24. Fuel and manufactured product inflation led the moderation. Food inflation accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in Jan’24

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In this note we have briefly analysed the trends seen in ownership of debt of general government (centre and states) securities

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Global markets assessed the US inflation data to determine the trajectory of Fed rate cuts

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CPI print was in line with our estimate at 5.1%

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Global markets remained muted awaiting the crucial US inflation report, which is likely to determine the trajectory of Fed rates going forward

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India’s high frequency growth indicators remained broadly resilient. Electricity demand, non-oil-non-gold imports, PMI data and credit offtake showed resilience

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US non-farm payroll rose more than expected by 275,000 in Feb’24 (est. 200,000) from 167,000 in Jan’24

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BoB Essential Commodity Index (BoB ECI) has inched up by 4.2% in Feb’24, on YoY basis

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Global markets monitored Fed Chair’s speech which hinted at delayed start to the rate cut cycle, probably later this year

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US macro data again raised doubts about the timing of rate cut. ISM services index softened to 52.6 in Feb’24 from 53.4 in Jan’24

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Liquidity deficit in the system has been increasing since Sep’23, to reach a record high of Rs. 3.5 lakh crores on 24 Jan 2024

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Investment has proved to be a crucial pillar o